2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V5.0

Submitted by alum96 on

Hello football fans. This is version 5.0 of a monthly segment I will do of  UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge.  Original purpose of this was to winnow down the 100s of offers Michigan gives to a small pool of players where there is at least a whiff of a chance.  After this massive run of commits in June Harbaugh has done much of that work already for the 2016s.

All caveats, warnings, and wag of the fingers about this methodology can be found in earlier versions:

Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the V1.0 so I'll copy/paste that here:

The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes. 

Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not. 

It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.

The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering  UM, so we play those by ear.

----------------------------

After the avalanche of commits in June we only saw Brad Hawkins join the fold in the following 30 days.  No worries; it is going to slow down a lot from here as slots are limited.  The open question is Harbaugh's Stanford "rolling commitment" system (which Ace outlined) and how they will carry over to UM.  Also the # of openings will (may?) be affected by any grayshirts. Potential decommits also might show up - although it seems David Reese (a leading candidate a month ago) won't be one.  To that end I've added a"New decommits" section below - which could be a Harbaugh decision in some cases based on his Stanford history.

Changes since V4.0:

  • New commits - 1.   WR Brad Hawkins
  • New decommits - 0.
  • New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - OG Johncarlo Valentin, DT Rashan Gary, CB Tony Butler, DE Connor Murphy.
  • New warm interest (Offense) - TE Jacob Mathis.
  • New warm interest (Defense) - DE Levi Onwuzurike, CB David Long
  • No longer Warm - RB Rakeem Boyd, WR Tre Nixon, WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), WR Korey Banks (North Carolina), TE Michael Irvin Jr (Miami - duh), DE Xavier Kelly (Clemson ? in a few hrs), DE Daniel Joseph (PSU), DT Keyshon Comp (USC), LB Jonathan Smith, CB Wayne Davis (OSU), CJ Pollard (USC), K Quinn Nordon (PSU), ATH Devin White

 

OFFENSE  (13 players, 5 UM is a "leader")

Pos Name State Starz Ntl Rnk Pos Rnk Leader # Pred
RB N/A            
               
FB N/A            
               
WR Jack Jones CA 4 53 3 USC 87% / UCLA 13% 15
WR Ahmir Mitchell NJ 4 79 6 UM 88% /OSU+Rutgers 6% 16
WR Dylan Crawford CA 4 88 13 USC 560% / ASU 22% 9
WR Desmond Fitzpatrick MI 3 302 52 UM 79% - Louisville commit 28
WR Grant Holloway VA 3 423 69 100% VaTech 1
WR Donald Stewart NJ 3 929 142 71% Stanford / 29% UM 14
               
TE Naseir Upshur PA 4 140 4 UM 81% / Miami 8% 26
TE Jacob Mathis FL 4 259 9 100% Florida 3
               
OT Jean Delance TX 4 100 12 Texas A&M 67% / OU 20% 15
OT Landon Dickerson NC 4 73 10 VaTech 67% / South Car 17% 6
OT Alex Akingbulu CA 3 455 41 UCLA 100% 3
               
OG Terrance Davis MD 4 77 2 UM 76% / Maryland 24% 17
OG Johncarlo Valentin PA 3 376 14 100% UM 4

 

 

DEFENSE  (23 players, 5 UM is a "leader")

Pos Name State Starz Ntl Rnk Pos Rnk Leader # Pred
DE Bryson Young CA 4 278 20 USC 100% 2
DE Connor Murphy AZ 3 290 21 UM 60% / ASU + Oregon 20% 5
DE Levi Onwuzurike TX 3 330 24 N/A 0
DE Jimmie Taylor NC 3 710 47 50% NC / 50% Cloudy 2
DE Terrell Lucas FL 3 1238 73 100% UM 6
DE Marlon Davidson AL 5 24 3 100% Auburn 21
DE Isaiah Chambers TX 4 89 6 43% TCU / 43% A&M 14
               
DT Rashan Gary NJ 5 1 1 UM 49% / Bama 32% 37
DT Chris Daniels TX 4 148 15 TCU 50% , Texas A&M 40% 10
               
LB Dontavious Jackson TX 4 122 4 Texas 50% / Bama 21% 14
LB Erroll Thompson AL 3 522 17 Miss State 88% / Bama 12% 8
LB Caleb Kelly CA 5 18 2 Oklahoma 90% / UM 10% 21
LB Jeffrey McCulloch TX 4 102 10 Texas 82% / OU 9% 11
LB Devin Bush Jr FL 4 226 9 FSU 72% / UM 28% 25
LB Jonathan Jones FL 4 409 30 UM 100% 23
LB Jonathan Smith NC 3 642 25 100% NC 4
               
CB David Long CA 4 68 7 50% Stanford, 30% Wash 10
CB / S Lamar Jackson CA 4 91 5 100% USC 3
CB Lavert Hill MI 4 113 10 MSU 55% / UM 40% - PSU commit 20
CB Jared Mayden TX 4 134 11 Oregon 39% / OSU 17% 23
CB Sir Patrick Scott MD 3 457 40 Wake Forest Commit 1
CB Tony Butler OH 3 530 48 88% UM / 12% OSU 17
               
S Jordan Fuller NJ 4 120 10 77% OSU 13

*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader, i.e. >50/50.

I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table.  The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.

 

The part where I overanalyze:

This is the time of the year where the big board is shrinking pretty rapidly as people who are only tangentially interested to UM commit elsewhere.   The offensive board has shrunk the most as it would appear our actual offer list is going to be something like:

  • Amir Mitchell
  • Naseir Upshur
  • Terrance Davis if he is indeed a silent commit or if not then...Johncarlo Valentin

 

The defense still has a lot of moving parts.  While UM leads for Butler his decision to not make a decision until December probably swings the door wide open for Sir Patrick Scott if he wants the spot and decommits.  (Hill seems like a PSU v MSU battle despite those crystal balls which are very old to UM)  That would seem to close out the secondary unless we can find a flip down the road.

While we have commmits in the secondary it's where we have a lot of under the radar types and my hope is some bigger fish emerge (i.e. flips) late in the cycle.  The search for a speed corner continues.  We really have not been in on any high rated safeties nor corners which is strange.

Jonathan Jones is the 2015 candidate for the annual "UM is my leader for months on end but in the end I choose.... not UM."  Other than Bush Jr there does not seem to be much movement in UM's direction among the linebackers.

With Kelly likely Clemson bound at DE (or "buck") there is not really a like minded replacement we seem to have a chance with at this time.  Connor Murphy - already at 6'7 250 lbs seems more strong side once he gets into college.

Gary will obviously be a battle til signing day - with Bama in the race you can't feel safe until the LOI is in even if he commits.   If no Gary we still need a DT and it's sparse out there.

And just as a reminder if Butler doesnt go blue this class will not have an OH recruit in it, unless someone comes out of the blue (pun intended).

alum96

July 24th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

We have to take a lot - aside from Hurst Jr and Mone almost our entire DT corps is gone after 2016.  Otherwise you are talking guys like Pallante who might be a TE for Harbaugh anyhow.

It's a lot like whiffing on LBs last year.  We have a big need there after 2016 and need to recruit for 2 classes in this one. 

Surprised we are not going for a 300-500 type ranked DT as a backup plan (someone raw who could at least be a run stopper - the type of guys a Utah can get).  It's a lot like "all in on Hand" 2 years ago and when no Hand we had no backup plan (Malik by then was MSU lean) and depth on DE suffered.

We are going to have a young defense one way or the other in 2017 which is why this class' defensive recruits are critical.  Esp with how few we had in the 2015 class.  Which is why I am wary we are taking so many projects in the secondary.  But to a degree its not by choice I assume - Harbaugh can at least sell himself to the offensive recruits, we dont have the same ace in hole to sell defensive guys right now.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/young-defense-2017-fb

Space Coyote

July 24th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^

I have a hard time believing he sticks at DE. Then you have guys like Onwenu or Hamilton or Davis that could end up at NT as well. That would be two incoming players to replace two scholarship guys (Glasgow was a walk-on), even without Gary. Then you take 2 or 3 next year and you're in fine shape with essentially 4-5 DTs over two years and it starts to work itself out.

Also, as far as we know they are still looking at lower ranked DTs, they just aren't pulling the trigger yet. If those guys aren't highly sought after, they don't need to be contacting them all the time. They can probably contact Jovan Swann (IN), Amir Watts (IL), Jake Saunders (OH), Rashad Wheeler (PA), Ulises De Los Santos (NJ), and Tyler Oliver (PA) and at least get serious interest out of a few of them. And those are all still top 100 DTs from the midwest.

Space Coyote

July 24th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^

The problem is, by "poor man's Chris Wormley" (which I agree with), you are pointing out the major problem, that he's Chris Wormley minus the athleticism to shift outside. Maybe he can play 5-tech against power teams that consistently line up in-line TEs on standard downs, but I just find it hard to believe he'll consistently playing on the edge.

So I agree with what you're saying, and I think you're agreeing that most likely he'll end up inside except maybe situationally.

Gofor2

July 25th, 2015 at 5:08 AM ^

Michigans biggest threat for Gary is Michigan itself. This is another Deshaun Hand scenario. If UM can finally prove its heading in the right direction by actually Winning Football Games then UM has a good chance at landing Gary. BUT,
If UM Continues to show it is nothing more than a off season, shit talking dreamer, like the last few, then Gary and most all other Elite prospects will choose the OSU's and Bama's of the world. Nobody, except maybe Peppers, is stupid enough to join a bunch of losers. Hand is a great example of that.
This whole scenario with Gary is very much like Hands recruitment. UM is favored, talking shit about what they are going to do next season, only to suck. If UM is headed for another season of suck you can bet your ass Gary will be in Bama.

Butler is waiting to see if OSU will make him a commit able offer, they have not yet done so, and if they land Hamlin and/or a few others then Butler will be Blue. But if OSU offers he will be a buckeye. Odds are he will be Blue tho. It seems the Buckeyes are getting whoever they want and there are some elite cb's still out there for them

alum96

July 24th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^

Fair points on position switches.  As for lower ranked guys I'd expect some of them to begin popping up as warm interests if UM is even sniffing around - see Terrell Lucas who is in the 1200s and has warm interest.

Not worried about filling scholarships at DT - we need production replaced at DT in 2017.  We need an entire 2nd string and at least a 5th guy to account for injuries i.e. 3 new guys to replace the Henrys Pipkins Wormleys Glasgows, hell Godins.

With the early success of Mone and seeing a lot of Polynesian types succeed elsewhere and our plethora of coaches with west coast connections I mentioned the Utah type players because they seem to make pretty damn good linemen. (that's racist!)

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865580204/Utes-football-recruiting-P…

Under Kyle Whittingham, Utah continues to have success attracting many of the best Polynesian players in the nation. Eight members of Utah’s signing class of 2013 are Polynesian..

Magnus

July 24th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

I imagine there are some backup plans behind Rashan Gary. Chris Daniels from Texas (and formerly from Michigan) is also an option. There's still a lot of time left, and there's enough time to flip somebody or come in with a late offer like we did with Grant Perry, Karan Higdon, Shelton Johnson, Reuben Jones, etc. Also, Michigan is in on some 2017 defensive tackles already. Obviously, Gary is the best-case scenario.

Dawkins

July 24th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

"Rashan Gary - UM 49% / Bama 32%"

This is a bit misleading. No one has pickied Bama since January. Since February 1, it's been almost all Michigan with 18 analysts picking Michigan, including 5 in the month of July alone. There's are also a few Auburn picks from this month, so those too are much more recent than the Bama picks. 

alum96

July 24th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^

Works the same for Lavert Hill - there has not been a UM pick in a year but we still show 40%.  Of course its impossible to break this all down in a table like this. 

I expect Bama to be there til the end along with Auburn.  Until that signature is faxed in I expect the battle for Gary to continue.

The Mad Hatter

July 24th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^

with the "crystal ball" metric.  Picks from a year ago are essentially meaningless.  I don't remember who it was but we recently picked up a commit that was like 5% Michigan and 95% other schools.  The Michigan picks were the most recent.

That said I would like to reiterate that we should be moving heaven and earth to land Gary.  DT needs notwithstanding, it would be nice to have at least one 5* prospect in the class.

Magnus

July 24th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^

"Picks from a year ago are essentially meaningless."

They're not meaningless if you still think the player will pick that school. Steve Wiltfong picked Michigan for Joshua Ross on October 7, 2013. Demetric Warren picked Michigan for Ross on May 12, 2015. Are we to dismiss Wiltfong's pick just because he picked it almost two years ago?

The Mad Hatter

July 24th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^

I thought it would have gone without saying that old picks would remain valid in the absence of newer picks for different schools.

I guess I just don't like clicking on a recruits page to see 80% to whatever school when you know damn well he's going somewhere else (or has already committed elsewhere).

Magnus

July 24th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^

If you know he's going to a different school, then the Crystal Ball picks shouldn't really matter. You have the ability/option to click on the picks and see when each one was made. If picks from the last X number of months are the only ones that matter to you, then click and read.

ThadMattasagoblin

July 24th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^

We could end up with only 1 4 star on the defensive side if we lose Gary. I was hoping to do better than that considering the offense we'll have to go up against in the last saturday in November. Kind of strange that Mattison's recruiting prowess has fallen off and Durkin hasn't lived up to his billing.

alum96

July 24th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^

I agree.  Mattison has not delivered on "I can make you into the next Ray lewis" mantra.  So he had the Ravens stuff to sell his first 2 years - that is ancient history as far as these kids now.

He has made big improvements from what was here pre-Mattison but basically he has Clark and Jake Ryan to his NFL resume at this point in 4 years.  And both those were last year and not really game changers in a Bosa, Gregory, etc.  Hell Rich Rod has Scooby out at Arizona which is better thought than anybody we have sent to the NFL in past 4 years.

 He will have Lewis and Henry down the road I would assume.  Guys want to see they will be developed into NFL level players. 

I am a bit surprised Durkin has not done more - again you can't tie a specific position to any specific coach in recruiting but he was supposed to be a wunderkid and thus far it's been a collection of lower level guys out of camps and aside from Ron Johnson not that much in the top 300. 

We just have to do it on the field for that side of the ball.

ThadMattasagoblin

July 24th, 2015 at 8:51 PM ^

Didn't Mattison get guys as recent as last year that were pretty good recruits? Harbaugh still has guys he turned into great players on the defensive side like Richard Sherman so I thought it could be a selling point to get at least some 4 stars to commit in the defensive backfield.

bronxblue

July 25th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^

Do we know kinda what positions Mattison really recruits for?  When he first arrived, they had some nicely-rated LB and line recruits who didn't pan out (Pipkins, RJS, Poggi sorta) but should be competent-to-good college players (Ross, Bolden, Gedeon, Charlton).  So it's not been that they haven't recruited decent enough players, its just that they haven't panned out.  That obviously falls on the coaches, but recruiting in vaccuum doesn't seem to be the issue.

Magnus

July 25th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^

Braden

Henry

Jenkins-Stone

Kalis

Richardson

Ross

Strobel

Wilson

Wormley

Douglas

Gedeon

Hurst

Poggi

Smith

Thomas

Marshall

Mone

Pallante

Peppers

Bredeson

This class he's recruiting Lavert Hill, Dontavious Jackson, Carlo Kemp, Khalid Kareem, Jeffrey McCulloch, Isaac Nauta, Levi Onwuzurike, and Bryson Young, among others.

Inuyesta

July 25th, 2015 at 2:11 AM ^

This is kind of a silly take, imo.  Our top targets on defense are invariably national prospects with long timelines.  We're in good shape with a lot of highly regarded guys on the defensive side of the ball.

5* NJ DT Rashan Gary - obvious

4* TX DT Chris Daniels - high on us, will take an official visit

4* TX DT Jordan Elliott - Houston commit but consistently mentions us as one of 2-3 schools pushing hard for a flip, will take an official visit

4* CA DT Boss Tagaloa - Not listed as "warm" in his profile, but locked in an official visit and has mentioned us throughout the process

4* AZ DE Connor Murphy - high on us, we could very conceivably take the lead or get a commit on his next visit.

Also listed as warm for a number of 4* DEs with varying levels of actual interest: Isiah Chambers, Marlon Davidson, Bryson Young.

5* CA LB Caleb Kelly - In a top-2 with Oklahoma

4* TX LB Dontavious Jackson - In very strong position; rumors flew that he may have silently committed during his visit this spring, has already locked in OV for OSU game

4* TX LB Jeffrey McCulloch - high on us, will take an official visit

4* FL LB Devin Bush Jr. - we lead

4* FL LB Jonathan Jones - We lead; only thing holding back a commitment are his parents' concerns about distance.  Has OV locked in for OSU game

4* CO LB Carlo Kemp - high on us, will visit for BBQ and probably come back for an official

5* LBs Mack Wilson (Alabama commit) and Mique Juarez (USC) probably don't have much actual interest, but both plan on taking OVs to Michigan.

4* CA CB David Long - a Stanford lean but high on us, will likely take an OV

4* AL CB Shyheim Carter - Alabama commit, probably not actually interested, but will take an OV

4* NJ CB Jordan Fuller - in his top 5, will take an OV

4* MI CB Lavert Hill - PSU commit, but M is pushing hard for the flip; he will visit for the BBQ

4* CA S Lamar Jackson - near the top for him; his OV is already locked in for the MSU game

4* CA ATH Jack Jones - we seem to be the top non-USC team for him; how much of a chance we have to actually steal him away is TBD, but he's taking an OV.

 

So, yeah, technically there are possible universes in which Ron Johnson is the only 4* defensive recruit that Michigan lands.  And yeah, missing on relatively local guys like Khalid Kareem, Auston Robertson, Lavert Hill (at least for now), Josh King, Daelin Hayes, and Demetric Vance isn't good.  But it's way, way, way, wayyyyyyy too early to say things like Mattison has fallen off and Durkin hasn't lived up to his billing when the board is still this well stocked.  

Also, try to remember that this is (1) a new staff (2) at a school coming off a 5-7 season, a 7-6 season the year before that, and a generally historically bad stretch for the past 7 years, while (3) our chief rivals are both enjoying tremendous success.  Harbaugh or no, recruits' image of Michigan is not what our image of Michigan is as older (relative to them) fans who can still clearly remember the good days.  Recruits want to see it on the field from us.  I'd say the staff is recruiting phenomenally well given these circumstances.  Even if we only land 2 or 3 kids from the list above, that's a really solid job.

 

ClassOf14

July 24th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^

I certainly understand your point, but I also get that sometimes the analyst still has confidence in their original pick. They should design their system so that all CB picks are only valid for 6 months, at which time if the recruit is still uncommitted, the analyst should have to pick whether to renew his pick for the original selection, or change it if he feels that recruit is trending differently. 

Space Coyote

July 24th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^

Bama is still a legit option. So is Auburn and Georgia (I think). 49% is probably optimistic for Gary at this point, quite honestly. So I think it's fine to say it without qualifying it.

Doge

July 24th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^

the papers are quite confident about UGA's chances with Gary. Apparently he had a great time at the recent "Dawg Night" event. It's safe to say that every major school he doesn't tell to fuck off will keep recruiting him until signing day, so this one will be a marathon not a sprint.

Magnus

July 24th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^

It's not really misleading unless you don't know how the Crystal Ball system works. It works the same for every prospect across the country. Perhaps some of those guys who picked Alabama back in January don't have a desire to pick someone else because they still think he'll pick Alabama. 

the real hail_yes

July 24th, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^

He has great size and an even better story - and I'm by no measure an expert talent evaluator - but I watched some of his reps at the Opening, and it looked like he was getting handled by the OL pretty consistently. Seemed to play upright and will probably need a good amount of development before he contributes at the college level.

But thats just my thoughts off of a terrible sample in a camp setting. I'm probably wrong.

Padog

July 24th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^

Desmond Fitzpatrick doesn't look while he will be coming here. Isn't that one of those cases where all of the 247 guys change their picks just on the off chance he decommitts?

alum96

July 24th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^

He has had the exact same profile for about 4 months now.  UM has been at 79% the entire time.  He is a Louisville commit who maybe 4-5 months ago some thought would be a flip but now is not thought to be one so no one has a reason to change their picks.  I bet he will be at 79% next Feb 1 as well. 

If a guy is committed and is not going to flip there is no reason for anyone to go back and change their picks.

Ron Utah

July 24th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^

This is a great post, and now that the class is filling out and we're getting to "crunch time" (senior seasons) it's a much easier and more accurate read on the situation.

This is a very, very good class that will only get better, and will form a foundation for U-M's success going forward.  It is not an elite class, but we'll have that after Harbaugh wins a signature game this year.

evenyoubrutus

July 24th, 2015 at 8:29 PM ^

This will seem totally random and weird, but every time we miss on a recruit who is at a position of need, this scene from 13th Warrior flashes through my mind

 

 

Right after the scene ends Buliwyf says "We will miss Angus tonight, we will miss his sword"

Bodogblog

July 24th, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^

That Levi Onwuzurike has a pretty funny twitter.  It comes up automatically on 247, so no stalk. 

Really need a WDE.  I agree I think Murphy looks like an SDE. 

On a related front, some guy from Men of the Scarlet and Gray just CB'd Donnie Corley to Michigan.  Very much an outlier, I'd be curious to what that's even based on.  Perhaps Corley could be MSU's "I've had them as the leader but I commit to someone other than them"...? 

Lanknows

July 24th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^

They are like sugary kid cereal, pointless but delicious.

I think a lot is going to change in this class based on how Michigan does in the regular season. 

  • Bad: If they lose more than we expect (lets say BYU and Utah end unfavorably) you're going to see some guys fishing around for other opportunities and Michigan focus on uhhh...late risers...yeah that's it. 
  • OK:  If we go about as you'd expect (1 loss somewhere), status quo. 
  • Good: If we run through the early part of the season and are 6-0 coming into MSU and ranked around 10, the Harbaugh hype train is going to be strong and you're going to hear about 5-star DBs coming in to visit.  Ditto if we have 9 wins (or more) coming into OSU.

We've seen it before that if people believe that things at Michigan are going to turn around legitimately, the recruits will flock.  Our regular season performance, especially in the early part of the year, will go a long way towards shaping that narrative.  That's why that Utah game, on the first night of college football on the year, is such a big deal.

mich_hockey_6

July 24th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^

What is going on at Oklahoma that Caleb Kelly favors then over what's going on at Michigan? Am I missing something?

There isn't anyone in this class so far that even comes close to ability. Unless, Devin Bush is expected to commit still. Even though he is apparently leaning towards FSU by a large margin at this point.

ClassOf14

July 24th, 2015 at 5:47 PM ^

If so, not by much. They went 8-5 (5-4 in conference) last year and got embarrassed by Baylor and Clemson, losing by over 30 in both games. By the time this recruit sees the field, do you still expect your statement to be true? You don't have to be a genius to see the expected trajectory in a program. 

Magnus

July 24th, 2015 at 6:58 PM ^

And? 

Oklahoma went 8-5 last year, but they had double-digit wins the previous four years. They have also put more guys in the NFL than Michigan recently. 

Meanwhile, Michigan went 5-7 last year - which is three games worse - and lost to Maryland and Rutgers.

Oklahoma was #32 in FEI, while Michigan was #67.

Trajectory schmajectory. You're only talking about that because you're a Michigan fan. The only argument anyone on our side has is "But Harbaugh!"

ClassOf14

July 24th, 2015 at 11:15 PM ^

Are you a Michigan fan? With how passionately you seem to be arguing in favor of OU it doesn't exactly seem like it. And it really is the only argument we need. Simply put, who do you think is a better coach, Harbaugh or Stoops? That seems to be the single most important factor in how successful a college program will be. Maybe it's the maize colored googles I inherently have, but I think most people would choose Harbaugh easily. If you don't believe me, simply look at how desperately M fans wanted Harbaugh here, versus the lukewarm reaction when Stoops' name came up. For all of Stoops' success, he's 8-8 in bowl games, (edit: 4-5 in BCS bowl games as well), and when he has reached the title game, he's 1-3. Color me a tad underwhelmed.

 

Magnus

July 25th, 2015 at 8:18 AM ^

No, I'm not a Michigan fan. It's all a ruse. You caught me red-handed.

But anyway, Oklahoma is better than Michigan at football. You can talk about Harbaugh and the "direction of the program" all you want, but the bottom line is that Oklahoma is and has been better than Michigan for a while. In the past 4.5 years, Oklahoma has won as many games as Michigan has in the last 7. Stoops has zero losing seasons since his arrival in 1999, and Michigan has three in the last seven.

Oklahoma is better right now, whether you like it or not.

alum96

July 24th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

There is that whole Bob Stoops has nearly the identical win % as hallowed Bo despite playing in an era of more parity and inability to stash 115 kids on scholarship thing as well.  Stoops is getting shit on lately because he has some 3 loss seasons and Oklahoma hasnt won the big game of late but still great tradition, great staff, great coach, send tons of people to the NFL thing that kids seem to like.  You know - exactly the same things we are selling here. 

Plus to the average 17 year old Oklahoma has actually been a top 10 team just about his entire life.

2000 Oklahoma 13–0 8–0 1st (South) W Orange 1 1
2001 Oklahoma 11–2 6–2 2nd (South) W Cotton 6 6
2002 Oklahoma 12–2 6–2 T–1st (South) W Rose 5 5
2003 Oklahoma 12–2 8–0 1st (South) L Sugar 3 3
2004 Oklahoma 12–1 8–0 1st (South) L Orange 3 3
2005 Oklahoma 8–4 6–2 T–2nd (South) W Holiday 22 22
2006 Oklahoma 11–3 7–1 1st (South) L Fiesta 11 11
2007 Oklahoma 11–3 6–2 1st (South) L Fiesta 8 8
2008 Oklahoma 12–2 7–1 T–1st (South) L BCS NCG 5 5
2009 Oklahoma 8–5 5–3 T–3rd (South) W Sun    
2010 Oklahoma 12–2 6–2 T–1st (South) W Fiesta 6 6
2011 Oklahoma 10–3 6–3 T–3rd W Insight 15 16
2012 Oklahoma 10–3 8–1 T–1st L Cotton 15 15
2013 Oklahoma 11–2 7–2 T–2nd W Sugar 6 6
2014 Oklahoma 8–5 5–4 T–4th L Russell Athletic    

 

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ot-college-coaches-winning-75-time

Dude School Yrs W L %
Saban Bama 7 84 10 89.4%
Switzer OK 16 157 29 84.4%
Osborne NE 25 255 49 83.9%
Devaney NE 11 101 20 83.5%
Bear Bama 25 232 46 83.5%
Spurrier  UF 12 122 27 81.9%
Tressel OSU 9* 94 21 81.7%
Stallings Bama 7 70 16 81.4%
Carroll USC 8* 83 19 81.4%
Bo UM 21 194 48 80.2%
Stoops OK 16 168 43 79.6%
Miles LSU 10 103 28 78.6%
Royal Texas 20 167 47 78.0%