2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V3.0
Hello football junkies. A quiet time of the year so this post should get lost between favorite Leave it to Beaver episodes and Top bands of the 00s soon enough. But for a moment - some football talk.
This is version 3.0 of a monthly segment I will do of UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge. V2.0 (April 24th) was here and V1.0 (March 26th) was here.
As always this has all the caveats which one should read before complaining about anything from this methodology. We know it's not perfect. This is just a way to organize the overwhelming amount of offers (eventually headed to 200ish) down to a manageable level (40-50ish).
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the first thread so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.
The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering UM - so for that I am just going by common knowledge. I've only put Desmond Fitzpatrick, Tony Butler and Lavert Hill in this group. If there are any others, just make a comment and I'll adjust. (I am not including Hayes in this as he still seems like a unicorn.)
Also it doesn't account for a position filling - i.e. multiple RBs are still "warm" interest for UM even if that position seems full. I'll continue to include just in case.
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If it seems quiet in the last month it is because it has been. The prior 30 day period saw 4 commits; this 30 days had none. And very little new movement at all in terms of strong interest - outside of Wr Brad Hawkins moving a bit towards UM and Lavert Hill and Donnie Corley moving away, not much happened.
Changes since V2.0:
- New commits - 0
- New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - none
- New warm interest (Offense) - RB Kiante Enis, RB Vavae Malepeai, WR Jack Jones, WR Austin Mack, TE Michael Irvin Jr, OT Jean Delance, OT Will Fries
- New warm interest (Defense) - DE Ron Johnson, DE Jimmie Taylor, DE Daniel Joseph, DT Keyshon Camp
- No longer Warm - RB Robert Washington (Syracuse), #2 TE Devin Asiasi (Uncommited), OT Michael Jordan (OSU), DE Josh King (most think MSU early June)
OFFENSE (24 players, 6 UM is a "leader")
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| RB | Rakeem Boyd | TX | 3 | 406 | 23 | N/A | |
| RB | Kiante Enis | IN | 3 | 713 | 52 | UM 50% / Indiana 50% | 2 |
| RB | Vavae Malepeai | HI | 3 | 742 | 53 | 100% Oregon | 3 |
| RB | Toks Akinribade | IN | 3 | 799 | 60 | UM 75% / Indiana 25% | 4 |
| FB | N/A | ||||||
| WR | Dylan Crawford | CA | 4 | 68 | 8 | USC 62% / ASU 25% | 8 |
| WR | Jack Jones | CA | 4 | 70 | 4 | USC 71% / UCLA+UM 14% | 7 |
| WR | Ahmir Mitchell | NJ | 4 | 74 | 5 | OSU 67% / Rutgers 22% | 9 |
| WR | Donnie Corley | MI | 4 | 105 | 14 | MSU 73% / ND 13% | 15 |
| WR | Austin Mack | IN | 4 | 131 | 20 | OSU 90% / UM 5% | 20 |
| WR | Brad Hawkins | NJ | 4 | 142 | 25 | South Car 56% / UM 31% | 16 |
| WR | Tre Nixon | FL | 4 | 231 | 43 | ND 75% / Duke 25% | 4 |
| WR | Desmond Fitzpatrick | MI | 3 | 328 | 56 | UM 79% - Louisville commit | 28 |
| WR | Donald Stewart | NJ | 3 | 885 | 130 | UM 100% | 5 |
| WR | Korey Banks | GA | 3 | 942 | 91 | UM 100% | 4 |
| TE | Naseir Upshur | PA | 4 | 137 | 4 | Miami 40% / UM 20% | 10 |
| TE | Michael Irvin Jr | FL | 3 | 601 | 26 | Miami 100% | 26 |
| OT | Ben Bredeson | WI | 5 | 26 | 4 | Wisc 79% / UM 17% | 24 |
| OT | Devery Hamilton | MD | 4 | 236 | 25 | Maryland 50% / Stanford 50% | 3 |
| OT | Jean Delance | TX | 4 | 94 | 11 | Texas A&M 53% / OU 27% | 15 |
| OT | Alex Akingbulu | CA | 3 | 392 | 39 | UCLA 100% | 2 |
| OT | Will Fries | NJ | 3 | 387 | 37 | PSU 79% / Rutgers 21% | 14 |
| OG | Terrance Davis | MD | 4 | 87 | 2 | UM 60% / Maryland 40% | 10 |
| OG | Michael Onwenu | MI | 4 | 183 | 6 | UM 78% / OSU 22% | 9 |
| OG | Josh Sills | OH | 3 | 1595 | 83 | N/A |
DEFENSE (27 players, 3 UM is a "leader" - kicker not incl.)
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| DE | Xavier Kelly | KS | 4 | 180 | 10 | Nebraska 67% / UM 33% | 3 |
| DE | Erick Fowler | TX | 4 | 77 | 5 | Texas 100% | 8 |
| DE | Ron Johnson | NJ | 4 | 201 | 11 | PSU 67% / Rutgers 25% | 12 |
| DE | Bryson Young | CA | 4 | 294 | 19 | USC 100% | 2 |
| DE | Connor Murphy | AZ | 3 | 358 | 22 | UM 67% / ASU 33% | 3 |
| DE | Jimmie Taylor | NC | 3 | 752 | 45 | 100% NC | 2 |
| DE | Khalid Kareem | MI | 4 | 187 | 13 | Bama 60% / MSU 20% | 5 |
| DE | Daniel Joseph | IL | 4 | 258 | 16 | UM 50% / MSU 50% | 2 |
| DT | Rashan Gary | NJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alabama 48% / UM 32% | 31 |
| DT | Chris Daniels | TX | 4 | 114 | 14 | TCU 56% , Texas A&M 33% | 9 |
| DT | Keyshon Camp | FL | 4 | 213 | 20 | Miami 50% / FSU 50% | 2 |
| LB | Dontavious Jackson | TX | 4 | 123 | 5 | Texas 55% / OU 27% | 12 |
| LB | Jaquan Yulee | VA | 4 | 151 | 7 | North Carolina 83% | 6 |
| LB | Caleb Kelly | CA | 5 | 18 | 3 | Oklahoma 100% | 16 |
| LB | Devin Bush Jr | FL | 4 | 217 | 9 | FSU 100% | 17 |
| LB | Camilo Eifler | CA | 4 | 265 | 19 | Washington 100% | 2 |
| LB | Jonathan Jones | FL | 4 | 467 | 33 | UM 78% / LSU 11% | 9 |
| LB | LaMar Winston | OR | 4 | 230 | 16 | 83% Oregon / 17% UW | 6 |
| CB | David Long | CA | 4 | 153 | 13 | Washington 50% / USC 33% | 6 |
| CB | Wayne Davis | VA | 3 | 329 | 30 | OSU 56% / VA Tech 44% | 9 |
| CB | Lavert Hill | MI | 4 | 179 | 17 | UM 56% / MSU 38% - PSU commit | 16 |
| CB | Lamar Jackson | CA | 3 | 473 | 29 | N/A | |
| CB | Tony Butler | OH | 3 | 598 | 54 | 60% OSU / 40% UM - Pitt commit | 5 |
| S | C.J. Pollard | CA | 4 | 251 | 10 | 100% USC | 9 |
| S | Andrew Pryts | PA | 3 | 372 | 21 | 100% Penn State | 11 |
| ATH | Devin White | LA | 4 | 86 | 8 | 83% LSU | 18 |
| K | Quinn Nordin | MI | 3 | 1100 | 1 | 100% UM | 11 |
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader or 50/50.
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
The part where I over analyze:
- Not much different then comments from last version. I am perplexed at the lack of interest by TEs in a Jim Harbaugh offense. And higher end wide receivers. There is some mild movement towards UM from South Carolina on Brad Hawkins but that's about it in that department. And #2 overall TE Devin Asiasi has gone from warm to cold.
- Still tons of work to do on the defense. A few new warm interests on the DL but nothing at all in the back 7 -- which was already void of interest. Lavert Hill seemed to be going UM's way a month ago and now MSU's way if he does flip. He is a King guy ... as is Corley. Corley seems to be headed to MSU, and supposedly they want to play together. Outside of that UM has almost no interest from anyone in the back 7 outside of Jonathan Jones. Who was the only player in this group of warm interests to fall substantially since the last 247 ranking - he fell 130 spots overall and 11 within his position group. There does not seem to be another LB in America with 1 crystal ball is in UM's direction - very strange considering all the playing time 2016 LBs could get very quickly at UM with all the losses in veterans UM will have at that position in the next 12 months. Similar comments for DBs - aside from Hill and Pitt commit Tony Butler (2 guys committed elsewhere) there doesnt seem to be a crystal ball in America for a DB pointing to UM at this point.
- Almost total lack of OH representation. 1 low rated OL and mid rated Pitt commit Butler...that's it. Very un-Michigan situation.
- Yes there is still time - but there are 28 less days then the last time we said there is time. Aside from DT Gary and DE Murphy ...both guys with personal connections to UM personnel there is not much action out there on the defense. Hopefully some movement happens around camp time in June.
If we had Nike uniforms I think we'd have 7 five stars by now.
Fucking Adidas.
to go ahead and end the monthly recruiting updates. Your a troll or just the most miserable poster on the board. Looking through your posts I am pretty sure your a sparty. Literally nothing positive in your posts ever.
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one rainbow?
Harbaugh is a jalapeno pepper. People who like jalapenos really like them. And you can make some fantastic things with them.
But they're not for everybody.
Huh.... I've always thought of JH as a smoked chipotle myself.
More seriously and FWIW, Sam Webb has been saying for a while that Harbaugh and staff are having to play catch-up because as a staff they don't have nearly as many recent established relationships either with players or HS coaches.
On top of that, many of those relationships that do exist are either with players/coaches in the far west or the deep south, and getting more than a handful of those kids to Michigan is difficult even in the best of times.
While there are some general similarities between Harbaugh and Bo, one huge difference is exactly what they came with to Michigan in terms of recruiting advantages. Bo had spent virtually his entire career coaching in the football hotbed of Ohio, and it was entirely natural that he would recruit that state like gangbusters, along with the staff he brought with him. He also had the initial advantage of no scholarship limits to constrain him, and it wasn't hard at all to persuade an Ohio kid to make the 2-3 hour drive up north.
Harbaugh, by contrast, has spend his entire head coaching career in California, with the last several years in the NFL. His own existing HS contacts would be almost entirely out west, and he's got scholarship limits that Bo didn't have to deal with.
Completely cogent post that deserves a downvote. lol Mgoblog - you vex sometime.
A chipotle is a smoked jalapeno.
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Mattison, Durkin and Zordich have considerable Ohio ties. I think this staff (especially Durkin) wants more players from the south. He has plenty of connections there from his time in Florida.
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Obviously I have no idea where they will land. I just know we need high value players who can play right away at LB. Our depth next year is bad at that position. Other than Gedeon I dont know if anyone can play at this level. Maybe McCray but who knows.
p.s. Bush has 17 crystal balls - not 1 to UM. Hard to believe we are a leader. I mock crystal ballz to a degree too and yes they are completely wrong from time to time but you'd expect SOMEONE to move the bar if we were a "leader".
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to take a season for big recruits to see what Harbaugh is doing at Michigan. He hasn't even coached a season, players don't know how things will translate from the NFL Harbaugh they know, back to college. The kids he's recruiting now really probably didn't see Stanford's success as they were 13-14 years in some case...it's going to take some time....
There is no excuse to not win a lot of games right away.
The conference is not that good.
No excuse to play Ohio State even for 50+ minutes and then lose to joke teams like the rest of the conference.
From the title, I was really impressed with your enthusiasm for fullbacks.
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Nice work but several things I question. Chris Daniels we're his childhood favorite and I know he has us higher than TCU. Upshur at tight end we lead for and I have heard that from his own family members. So although you did a great job with your info I think it's a little off in some cases.