I won't be surprised if Max gets 20+ mins on average.
2015 MBB Rotation
Just wanted to see how everyone else has structured next years potential lineup. This is what I have:
Derrick Walton 30
Spike Albrecht 10
Caris LeVert 35
Zak Irvin 3
Zak Irvin 27
Kam Chatman 10
Aubrey Dawkins 3
Kam Chatman 20
Mark Donnal 10
DJ Wilson 10
Mark Donnal 20
Ricky Doyle 15
Max B. 5
My minute structure may not be the best, but looking at it I am very excited for what this team can do.
I created this thread for others to put their breakdown.
And apologies for the umpteenth roster thread.
Yea I think my Center minutes could be way different
Hasn't anyone figured out that Beilien does not like 10 man rotations. These threads are fun but your rotation should be 8 or 9 max. Dawkins and Maar are not looking at a lot of playing time if Chatman lives up to his rep.
I just put it together quickly with everyone in mind, but yea you're right.
Yep. I think I counted 11 in OPs rotation. Beilein won't go past 8-9. I'm thinking maybe Wilson can redshirt to put on weight, but maybe that's wishful thinking
Not going line by line but there is no way a 1st year big man plays 30 minutes. Mitch played 20 minutes freshman year, Morgan played 24 as a RS FR etc. A guy like Noah Vonleh who is going lottery played 26. Donnal will go through normal learning curve and pick up fouls and any time he picks up an early 2nd he wil be sitting on the bench in the first half etc. I know it is RS FR and not FR but still a first year player playing the 5, jostling inside with other bigs and not playing the perimeter on defense mostly like a Nik, GR3, etc would be.
If Donnal can average 24 we should be thrilled. I think there will be a lot of zone as well to try to protect him and keep him on the floor but again very young team on defense and mistake prone. When late on a rotation or late to your man you tend to foul.... and Big 10 refs don't respect young big men. So some games he might get stretched out to 25-28 minutes and others, just with fouls he is going to be limited to 18-20.
If you think there is only going to be a 9 man rotation either Wilson or Dawkins or MAAR gets a redshirt I guess. There are 11 candidates for playing time and the one who in theory would benefit most from a RS (Doyle) is at the 1 position we have where he needs to be out there since there is no similar body type outside of Donnal. So you RS one of the wings if there is no way Beilein plays 11.
I clearly missed something. Who is MAAR?
I love Max, but if that happens we are in serious trouble.
Do you feel better if Doyle is there? Chances are we are in a tough spot either way (at the 5 position). Hopefully Donnal can help the rebounding and post defense from the 4.
Yes, I would. Max is not a Big Ten center.
Novak wasn't a B1G power forward.
That's correct, which is why he averaged less than 10 points and 5 rebounds per game his senior season while frequently being dominated on defense.
...and won a B1G Championship.
... and was bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not trying to bash on Novak, but he was not a 4, period.
Physically, no he wasn't. Functionally, he worked out just fine.
Much better unless he plays worse than Bielfeldt and you're also forgetting about Donnal.
I'm throwing this or there but I happen to think max could pick up minutes at the 4. chatman would then split between the three and four. I think Dawkins redshirts and MAAR does not.
But Beilein said Max was unguardable during practice!
Are you talking about Mark? Max getting 5 minutes doesn't seem to be a harbinger of death.
no one can guard him.
He's 6'6" and not skilled enough offensively for JBs system. I see him behind the 4 other bigs at this point.
Would Beilein really burn both MAAR and Dawkins' redshirts for 5 minutes combined? That's an honest question--seems a little low to burn for to me. I would imagine one or the other is more likely to be redshirted if that's all they will play. It's a nine-man rotation without either of them, which is deeper than we ran most of this past year.
Not unless he's taking instruction from the Brady Hoke School of Redshirting.
Anytime you have an opportunity to burn a redshirt on a special teams play in the 4th quarter of a game against Miami of Ohio that you are winning by 24, you take that opportunity, dammit!
Max Bielfeldt is unguardable!
I predict that Donnal will play at least as good as Morgan at the 5. Chatman will be pretty good and we will be fine.
I think that MAAR will get 5-10, and Dawkins will redshirt. Or the other way around. I don't see Beilein burning both redshirt unless they are both good or Irvin plays the power forward.
The hoops roster for next year is set. Either it's Cole, who sits out a year for the transfer, or the scholarship will be banked for next year.
Played together some this year. I'd give 45-50 minutes to that combo with 1 taking some minutes at SG
Spike will definitely get more minutes... He is too indispensable to only play ten minutes... I also think Walton has a breakout year, so I won't be surprised if Spike and DWalt play on the court together for minutes at a time.
I don't see LeVert playing 35 minutes per game for one thing. That's almost Gary Grant PT. And I really, really hope and expect that Max B. will get a lot more than 5 minutes.
I don't think Caris playing that 35 min a game is a stretch considering he played 34.0 min per game this year.
I don't think that he doesn't like 10 man rotations. He just never has enogh players to make having the 9th or 10th player worth playing. If Stauskas, GR3, and McGary come back then I bet he goes 10 deep. Last year 10 deep would have been Bielfeldt. We already went 9 deep with Spike, Caris, Mitch, Glenn, Derrick, Zak, Nik, Jordan, and Jon.
2010-2011 is the most similar to 2014-2015. Young inexperienced big men, deep rotation, star guard, no seniors, etc.
# of games played:
- 35 - Morris
- 35 - THJ
- 35 - Morgan
- 35 - Novak
- 35 - Douglass
- 35 - Smotrycz
- 34 - Vogrich
- 29 - Horford
- 27 - Christian 4.7 mpg
- 25 - McLimans 5.4 mpg
- 16 - Akunne 2.5 mpg
- 11 - Bartelstein 1.7 mpg
Spirit of exercise is to show a 10-11 man rotation with some guys playing 5 minutes (or less) per game is not out of the question. I'd argue that is a 10 man rotation through McLimans ....and Akunne and Bartelstein are sort of what maybe a MAAR or Dawkins would get.
Now will he do it this year? Who knows. But we have recent history showing when he has the players he will play a deep bench.
Do you have MAAR as a redshirt or just not as a regular rotation guy
I see MAAR redshirting, obviously if he is more impressive than Dawkins then switch them around. I see more athletic ability out of Dawkins to keep up in the Big Ten.
Bielfedt will obviously see around 15 minutes to start the year but I think people are highly underrating Chatman and Wilson. I think Beilein will want Chatman and Wilson to play significant minutes.
Wilson could be cut to 10 minutes and Bielfedt will then play 10 minutes at the PF.
Athletic 6'8" power forwards will be needed to grab rebounds when we have Donnal down low.
Donnal could be cut down to 25 minutes to allow another 5 minutes to Bielfedt. Bielfedt just didnt impress me at all, unless he improves his three point shooting in games, Id rather role with the young guys.
Max is red shirting?
2015 walton >> 2014 walton
2015 lavert > 2015 lavert
2015 irvin < 2014 stauskus
2015 chatman < 2014 robinson
2015 donnal < 2014 morgan
2015 bench: spike, wilson, doyle, beilfeldt, maar, dawkins (probably first 3 getting most minutes).
2014 bench: spike, irvin, horford
the 2015 team is now the most unpredictable team we've had in some time. i'd guess they'll start the year ranked around #20, but i wouldnt be mad if they were unranked.
cant wait to see who steps up. dont know if we'll play any defense but i know we'll be scoring plenty this season.
Irvin gonna be the new big uptick. And Donnal will be a good player.
I firmly expect Max Bielfeldt to be a starter next year. I know he's not a real big guy, but haven't you seen Beilein's ability to devolp talent. He's studied under Jordan Morgan. Max is gonna be a baller. BELIEVE
I hope he develops, but he's had three years and was atrocious in the time he played this year. Hope I am wrong, but I just don't see him giving valuable minutes.
but there are players who have seen a reduction in playing time due to failure to develop or perform under Beilein's watch. It happens. And Max has shown little to no evidence in neither his play or mpg in his very limited backup role this past season to indicate that he will be a starter this upcoming season. Don't get me wrong. I love the guy. He's got the biggest calves in college basketball. He could even prove to be a serviceable reserve next (this) season. But a starter, he is not.
on how quickly the freshmen can grasp Beilein's offense along with the speed and physical demands of the game. Given what has been reported about who Michigan was pursuing in the late signing period I have to believe Beilein feels comfortable with Donnal, Doyle and Max at the 5. Now it's going to be mix and match depending on who looks most prepared for the demands of the college game and Beilein's offense.
Here's hoping the rest of the recruits are doing what Doyle is in terms of preparing themselves.
Why do so many people here believe that a 4 has to be built like Dirk Nowitzki? "Chatman is a freshman, he can't play the 4....." I'm guessing these are the same people that didn't watch U-M basketball until the final four run..... We had a 6'3, 200 pound white guy play the "4" a few years ago. I'm not that worried about a 6'7 210 pound freshman playing the four.
That's what I'm saying. People forget that GRIII started at the 4 as a freshman and we did okay.
"Chatman is a freshman, he can't play the 4....."
Did I miss this quote or did you just make it up?
There won't be a "5". It will be a rotation of Bielfedt (starter), Chatman, Doyle off the bench splitting time at the 4/5.
I think MAAR and Dawkins will play before Wilson.
This is what scares me...need moar beef.
Positions 1-4 are going to be fine. But I'm pretty sure it won't matter who we have at the 5. We're still going to get mauled on the boards by any team that has at least an average interior presence.
I was just working on this last night and thinking of posting something similar. Thanks for starting this thread - fun for rampant speculation. First, you have to think about a few circumstances that will affect next season:
- Beilein has always stuck to a pretty short rotation of about 8 primary guys with 1-2 more getting spot minutes as needed. He's never had this deep of a bench with scholarship players, however.
- Hatch is obviously either redshirting, taking a medical scholarship, or playing with the scout team given his situation.
- Had McGary and/or Horford returned they would have certainly wanted to redshirt Doyle and possibly even Williams - now that isn't happening.
- The MAAR/Dawkins role is going to be very interesting. They're different players and both of them could fill a need on this team.....yet there likely won't be more than a few minutes for either of them so does one red-shirt?
- What is up with Max? I'm frankly surprised that so many people think he's going to play major minutes. I just don't see it. He's a man without a position on this team and remains an enigma. He's a solid effort and rebounding guy, but he's a liability on both ends of the floor barring a major improvement. I see him and Doyle fighting for the back-up center spot with one of them fading into the "emergency foul trouble guy" by the conference season.
- I don't think you see Donnal playing any minutes at PF now. He's a center unless/until someone else steps up and I think that's fine in this offense.
So here's my best guess at minutes:
- Walton (28), Spike (12)
- Levert (30), Spike (5), Irvin (5)
- Irvin (25), Chatman (5), Dawkins (10)
- Chatman (20), Wilson (20)
- Donnal (20), Doyle (10), Bielfeldt (10)
Redshirt - MAAR, Hatch.
I think they are more likely to need size and shooting (Dawkins) than they are ball handling and creation (MAAR) so that's why I picked what I did. However I could easily see that reversed and Levert playing more minutes at SF so MAAR can play SG.
Chatman will join the returning wing players in playing roughly 25-30mpg. All of the bigger guys (Wilson, Doyle, Donnal, Max) will be thrown in a blender and play anywhere from 5-20mpg.
Considering that Chatman has the second highest Rivals ranking of any Beilein recruit I think that team will be able to score and ride some ups and downs (and horrific defense) into the tournament but won't contend for the conference title. Wisconsin seems to have that locked up with Kaminski inexplicably staying another year.
Who is Williams?
makes the jump and Max may not get a 5th year here. Not to mention Hatch may get the medical after a red shirt season.
supposed to go in the other thread.
look at how much Nik and Caris played last year, Burke the year before that. those guys all played a lot.
200 min available:
Caris - 35
Walton - 35
Irvin - 35
Spike - 15
Mark - 22
Kam - 18
DJ - 15
Max - 15
That's 190 min. The remainder goes to dakich et al in blowouts, Caris and Irvin in close games
We have a lot of bodies up front after all...just not sure how many are ready to contribute right now. What kind of depth do we actually have up front come B10/ACC? B10 season? The telling answer would be told in how many minutes Irvin logs backing up the 4. My hope is zero.