2014 Michigan Football: A return to the standard.
I remember having this same feeling after the 1996 and 2005 seasons. Both were dissapointing to say the least but there was a cool confidence and workmanlike approach to the seasons that followed both of those campaigns......eerily similar to this off-season.
Michigan is going to be a vastly improved football team this fall ladies and gentlemen and I will tell you why I think 10+ wins is not only possible...but likely.
1. We have a great quarterback situation. Last season Devin was under seige...still put up admirable numbers despite his inconsistency. Few Qbs in the entire country can play at his ceiling. Devin is back for his 5th year and poised for a monster season. If he should falter......I feel very comfortable with Sugar Shane rifling the pigskin to our arsenal of Man-Sized targets.
2. We have some tremendous size on the edge. I counted 6 wideouts over 6ft2 and all around or over 200lbs. That is not found very many places. We simply have some grown ass men catching the pigskin this year. I truly believe "Funchise" will dominate and the tandem of Darboh/Chesson will be one of if not thee most formidable set of starting WRS in the B1G. Let's not forget the promise Freddy Canteen has shown or the fact that Jake Butt will be back by B1G play. Blocking will not be a problem with this group either which makes way for all types of fun on the edge with sweeps and screens. (Cue the music for Norfleet and Mr. Peppers please)
3. We have Running Backs. Derrick Green has dropped 20 lbs and looks primed to live up to his lofty recruiting ranking. De'veon Smith looks primed to prove that Mike Farrel and company don't know what the hell they are talking about. Neither is a homerun threat which is problematic but there is some hope with Justice Hayes. I'm not certain what the status is with Ty Isaac but if he is eligible.....good lord. I think this set of backs will fit the hard-nosed style that coach Nuss is looking for and given our conference....I think the "home-run" back aspect is slightly negated. Nobody runs 4.3 in the winter time.....nobody.
4. There is too much talent in our O-line segment meeting room and too much pressure on Coach Funk and company to repeat last year's abysmal performance. There needs to be an edge to this group and I believe there will be. They may not be elite this year but I thoroughly expect above average line play. If this happens....our Offense will cruise to around 35-40 ppg. Thats some serious numbers and when you look at our personnel...it's very do-able.
5. Our D-line is deeper than it has been and features a potential B1G DPOY in Frank Clark. I expect a breakout year from our Senior and his bookend teammate Beyer will be serviceable at least. I prefer Charlton (6ft6 275) and Ojemudia due to their explosiveness/size but all 4 will play. Strongside ends will feature a rejuvinated and healthy Chris Wormley (295lbs) along with highly rated Henry Poggi. I am very excited to see Lawrence Marshall in action also.
6. Linebacker play will be a strength this season and likely a top unit in the B1G. James Ross...Joe Bolden....JMFR for God's sake. Nothing but quality behind them:Gedeon, Morgan, McCray, Jenkins-Stone, Gant, Wrangler and Mikey Ferns (6ft4 235). You will be hard-pressed to find a more talented group in the nation...let alone the B1G My only concern is how many of them can truly cover out of the backfield and what mismatches might be presented against the Ohio's of the world.
7. Secondary...meet Nitros aka. Jabril Peppers. He is every ounce of 201 lbs and in the neighborhood of 6ft1. Might possibly be the most heralded talent to don the maize n blue in 15 years. Excitement level = through the roof....and rightfully so. Now think about a seasoned tandem of Blake Countess and Raymon Taylor returning. Channing Stribling has elite lenght and was thrown into the fire last season. Jourdan Lewis had a breakout spring and I've been hearing that the competition is fierce at the corner spot. Brandon Watson enters camp at 190...if he can run and flip his hips at that weight...call me giddy. The safety postion looks solid as long as a few rotation players step up. Wilson, Dymonte Thomas, Jeremy Clark and Reon Dawson will fill the depth chart. Wilson and Thomas stand out to me. Peppers may very well see his Nickel role expanded if either should open the door.
8. Special Teams is a bit of a question mark because of the kicking game. Is Hagerup back to full punting duty? Can Wile make the crunch time kicks? I think our return game will be electric if Hoke puts Peppers back there. Norfleet is still a decent option if not. Overall I look at the talent and athleticism of our roster and cant help but think how good our special teams could be if outfitted appropriately. We have a lot of good football players that are dying to make an impact. If we approach special teams with a Beamer Ball mentality, we could really improve as a team and slide into that 10+ win category.
9. The Schedule will be tough as usual but there is NOT ONE SINGLE MISMATCH on the schedule. We have more overall talent than Michigan State and simply need to match their fire. It has to mean as much to us as it does them. I think you will see that this year. Notre Dame is just a matchup that I always feel confident in. It will be close in South Bend any way you slice it. I don't see an upset happening this year. We get Penn State at home and they simply do not have the depth to match us for 60 minutes. We can match Ohio talent for talent everywhere. They do not have a Jabril Peppers on their team and we have played them to a draw 2 years in a row and come up just short. There will be no fear factor heading into Columbus.
I see us with a 12-0 ceiling and a 9-3 floor. This team will not lose more than 3 games this year. It's too talented and there is too much pressure on the program in general. We have a great blend of proven talent and incoming talent. We have the most electric freshman in the country. We have a chip on our shoulder and a fiery new coordinator who is a winner. We've played a brand of football that has not been Michigan level the last few years. This season is one in which we get back to the standard of Michigan football. I won't gurantee anything as I am just a rabid Michigan fan and average poster......but I wouldn't plan too much around early December and early January. There just might be some extremely important Michigan Football games that you might have to catch a plane to go see. I predict an 11-2 record. What say you MgoFamily?
Go Blue!
August 4th, 2014 at 12:34 AM ^
This is now how I feel
August 4th, 2014 at 12:37 AM ^
We are too good to lose to an "underdog" especially at home. That leaves 3 red-letter games. ND, MSU and Ohio. I don't see us losing all 3.
August 4th, 2014 at 10:29 AM ^
We say that every year, but the reality is we usually do lose a trap game, even some our best teams (Iowa 2011, for example). With a still young team, there's going to be additional variability so the odds go up even more. I do agree that it's unlikely to lose all 3 of the rival games, for the same reasons. Gun to my head, 9-3, but what's more important than the record is how we develop throughout the season.
I am going back to my default of 9-3. If I was going to guess, the losses would be to Ohio and ND with one "inexplicable loss" thrown into the mix.
I think the most important game this year is going to be against Sparty in the battle of 20th century offenses. While Sparty will never catch Michigan in the all time series (68-33-5), it is important not to let them think they can start another streak. As always, this game can have an effect on recruiting.
As coaches like to say about the hours after midnight, nothing good ever happens when you lose to Sparty. It's time for the Michigan football team to take this rivalry as seriously as the basketball team does.
August 4th, 2014 at 12:43 AM ^
August 4th, 2014 at 12:43 AM ^
Our team speed remains to be measured but there are only a few teams that will really test that out. I'd love to see us get to the point where our DTs are sub 5.1....DEs sub 4.9.....LBS sub 4.7 and DBs sub 4.5. Not sure if we are there yet. Those are numbers that you can see on the field though. 11 hats on the ball in very quick fashion. The DL is what really stands out.
August 4th, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^
That at least on defense, a lot of the "undersized" guys are older with bigger Freshmen and Sophomores as reserves (especially at LB). Normally, it's the other way around.
August 4th, 2014 at 12:50 AM ^
I look at your critique of the team and love the enthusiasm. I think we have that capability....but after last years o-line performance...add in a new system....lose two great tackles. I'll be cheering right along side you but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm a bit.
If we can establish a line of scrimmage against some decent teams this year and actually run the ball...we become dangerous and the sky is the limit.
Completely agree. I think the OP is overly-optimistic about the o-line. With the way they played last year, an average o-line would be a big step up. I'm not expecting much more than that.
August 4th, 2014 at 10:32 AM ^
All of the other things the OP mentioned are nice and all, but if we can't protect the QB and run the ball none of them really matter. Another terrible OL will kill the offense, and put a lot more strain on the defense. Simply being mediocre would be a big improvement.
August 4th, 2014 at 12:55 AM ^
When the Playoff committee releases their first ranking on October 28th. You heard it here first.
My landlord said exactly that yesterday.
Then I told him my sink is clogged.
Well, you put it eloquently. I feel the same as you. The only missing category is coaching. This is the unit that needs to step up IMO. I have no doubt we will be shocked at the improvement under Nussmeier. For Pete's sake let's play with some f&*((*% fire this year. It broke my heart to see all the sad faces in our crappy bowl game last year. This is Michigan for God's sake. Let's go out and kick some butt! Go Blue!
August 4th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^
Mattison has as proven a track record as DC as any DC in the country. How much of Nussmeier's success is due to Saban remains to be seen. The bigger coaching questions come when you look at position groups, but in terms of game day management of the offensive and defensive units, these are two good guys to have.
Was Darrell Funk a problem last year? Did Borges throw too much at the young OL or was Funk in over his head? Clearly, Hoke/Brandon thought the former, which is why Borges is no longer around, but questions remain.
How much will Brady Hoke allow Mark Smith to do with the DL? Or will there be a sense of Hoke stepping on his toes by being too involved? How will Smith do handling the younger guys? Will there be a rotation of DL for rotation's sake? Or will there be 4 truly capable players on the field at any given time? Rotating Henry in with Pipkins some seems logical. Both have proven they can play. But at what still looks to be a 3 technique, there's Wormley and a pretty big drop to guys like Godin and Glasgow. Hopefully one of those guys and/or Hurst steps up and the rotation doesn't give up much. On the ends, Clark and Beyer likely start, but working in Ojemudia and Charlton shouldn't be much of a drop either.
Mattison spoke highly of Gedeon last year. I'm guessing the opening day starters at LB will be Ross-Ryan-Morgan, but in B1G play I can see Gedeon replacing Morgan.
Can Jeff Hecklinski get all that potential on paper to perform on the field? He has A LOT of young wideouts and little to no veterans to lead by example. I think most coaches would savor a situation like this and have a lot of fun with it. Can he offer to Hoke a solid depth chart list that keeps UM from switching starting wideouts every game? Big, important question.
Can a former linebacker get the most out of his cornerbacks? Being a little facetious here, but I wonder how many good natured arguments there have been or will be between Mallory and Manning on at what position Peppers belongs.
Brady Hoke, by all accounts, is a great man who loves the University of Michigan. That character makes the University proud and it endears him to recruits. He has proven to be a strong recruiter because of it. But is he good enough as a game day football coach to elevate Michigan to perennial B1G champion contender and relevance on the national stage, competing for national titles? His track record suggests no. But coaches like this can take their programs to greatness if they recognize their strengths and weaknesses, and delegate accordingly. The man can recruit talent, but he more than guys like Saban and Meyer relies on assistants and coordinators to pick him up. I live in Pittsburgh, and I see a lot of similarities between Hoke and Mike Tomlin. Both are great men whose players by and large respect them immensely. Both are less than steller when it comes to gameday coaching. Tomlin has three former NFL head coaches on his staff (HOF Dick LeBeau, Todd Haley, Mike Munchak) and delegates a lot to them. Again, Hoke's coordinators have great track records of success.
The next 2-3 years will be very telling. And I'm excited to see what this youthful talent can do this year. UM is still a little undersized at some positions, and a little youthful on the depth chart, but the future looks bright.
August 4th, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^
I don't know if we will all be *SHOCKED* by the improvement under Nuss. I mean, we all kind of agree that it can't be any worse right? And that we will almost improve by default? So what would really qualify as shocking?
that was what most people were thinking of the oline heading into 2013 - it can't be any worse that what it was in 2012.
Definitely shouldn't have read this right before bed. I'm all kinds of jacked up now.
I think we'll be good this season, but if not we should be 100 percent back to normal Michigan football within the next two years after we've flushed out the lost classes of 2010 and 2011 either under Hoke or someone else. There's too much talent in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes.
You know things are bad for Izzo when Brandon Dawson transfers to play in the Michigan secondary.
That would spark a revolutionary trend for sure. In all seriousness I think Clowney could actually play corner......
We should be at least 10 wins if the talent plays up to expectations. I think that the biggest thing is a passing game with fewer mistakes from the drops to the bad reads. just catch the damn ball.
You think the biggest issue for the offense heading into the season is the passing game?
Lewis has been balling out since Spring practice. It will be interesting to see if come game time, they actually sit Blake down and give him the nod. I've heard some chatter about Blake to Nickel and Jabril to Free or Strong. That would put Jabril in a very cerebral spot year one. However this pans out, I think you will see some talent on the field in our secondary. I think the highest ceiling on any of our corners lies in Channing Stribling. He was baptized in Happy Valley last year but he has some speed and excellent size. Look for him to make a big push also!
I agree with you 100% about State. Those chumps base their whole season on beating Michigan, and I think that it is high time this team needs to match their intensity. Make no mistake, UM vs. State is a red letter game, and needs to be treated as such. Even when Michigan was winning regularly, a lot of those games were dogfights with the exception of '06's 49-3 drubbing (God that felt good to type).
"Mikey Ferns"? Is that a nickname he actually goes by?
I would like to see Michigan be able to run against meaningful competiition. We ran like crazy on CMU last fall and my heart was filled with happiness. But we all know that the history books don't reflect the same over the course of the season.
I would also like to see Michigan defensively slam the door on an opponent giving them a run late in the game. Not thinking Akron style, but more of like what we should have done to Penn State last fall intercepting or knocking down a couple of those late flying balls. No big 4th quater - 4th down completions ala Nebraska please. As much as I like Pelini's eccentricity I want to beat them every time.
I would like to see all the weapons on offense translate into above average Red Zone performance. Not faulting anyone but I'd like to see the Team win those goal line battles ala Ohio of last year and Iowa of a couple seasons back.
If the Team does as we expect, expectations and hype will rise, I sincerely hope they can keep the same football workmanship going as the season progresses.
This team has the talent to win any of its games. It had the talent to win more last year, too. There are highly sought recruits in every position. There's a very good quarterback in terms of potential and athleticism. The skill positions include guys with a great upside. The defense could be very good.
Whether the team will reach its potential will come down to coaching.
So my question isn't whether the O-line guys are capable of this or that; it's whether the coaching is good enough. Game management was questionable last year. Player development hasn't been up to Michigan standards for several years. The offensive game plans were either very good (ND, OSU, IN) or head-scratchers.
Regardless of how many recruiting stars the players have, the question for me now is whether we have a 1 or 2 star coaching staff, or something else. To have witnessed the debacle of last year, with the talent that was in place can be blamed on a lot of things, but these breakdowns rarely happen with a 5 star coaching staff.
Can Nuss simplify the scheme to allow their size and nasty to come out and not be horribly overwhelmed like the 75 different schemes we ran last year.... To me, that is what this season comes down to because you can't teach age and physical maturity.
Dawson and Kugler are still RS FR. So "ready to roll" is a bit of an assumption considering at UM even the most elite OL generally got started as RS SO (Lewan, Long, etc). Maybe there is a case or two of being an exception but generally a RS FR starting on OL (if it has happened at UM in the past 30 years) would be hidden among a crowd of SRs and JRs... not surrounded by RS sophomores.
Outside of Glasgow there is really no 'sure thing' on this line. Kalis was very disappointing, Magnuson was probably the 2nd best inside OL but is switching positions and facing a different skill set of DL, Braden has never played a college football snap, and Bosch got thrown in there in very unfair fashion as a true freshman. They could all improve and still be incredibly average (or below) due to nothing more than age/experience. Twelve months from now it's another conversation.
Dawson is one of my fav players from the recruiting writeups and how he acts on the field and Braden is an "imposing man" and Kugler has "great genes" but these are all unproven commodities. A year ago in these type of writeups we had a 5 star Kalis with 0 experience entering his RS FR year and in these writeups people were saying he'd be the 3rd best OL player and not to worry cuz ...starz. So saying the same for the Dawsons and Kuglers seems to be ignoring very recent history.
I am not even going to touch on Fox or LTT - not sure how they should be ready to go when you don't even hear their names in the 2 deep.
And unless we are very fortunate there will be an injury at some point even if for a few series or a few games and guys with even less experience than the starting 4 (of 5) will be out there.
If someone had some time it would be interesting go through the past 20 years and see what class our OL began starting; I'd imagine RS JR was the "average" so positing all these RS FR and RS SO are going to thrive, is an aggressively optimistic viewpoint.
August 4th, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^
Agreed, great genetics. But according to his bio, he benched 300 in high school (not that he needs to bench press on the field, but playing the interior of the OL requires the type of strength for which the bench press can prepare.) Plus, he lost some weight lifting time with the shoulder surgery, so from a technical standpoint, betting on him being ready is a good bet. If he's not on the field, it's more likely from a strength standpoint.
The Schedule will be tough as usual but there is NOT ONE SINGLE MISMATCH on the schedule.
I was thinking about the schedule late last night, and I tend to agree with this. There isn't - on paper - a game which makes me recoil, if you will, and although my little exercise of fiddling with Sagarin numbers is of limited practical usefulness since no football has been played yet this season, even those numbers point towards what could theoretically be a good year against that schedule. I feel pretty good right now that we're looking at a pretty nice season just based on little things that we can reasonably estimate right now.
I was surprised to see nary a mention of Ondre Pipkins, nor Hurst or Mone. Was this deliberate, or an oversight?
Regardless, I enjoyed reading your thoughts, and I too am looking forward to this year. I still expect two losses, but I can live with that for now. One of the wild cards is injury By 2015, that will matter even less, as there will be sufficient depth across the board to have someone hurt and another guy step in and play at close to the same level.
wormley is a DT - they might list him as "DL" but he hasnt repped at DE in a while. and hes one of those guys, along with most of the linemen from hokes first few classes, that really need to elevate their games in order for this team to compete at LOS against good competition