2014 MBB signing day - striking out
so, we struck out on our major targets for 2014, blackmon jr., and devin booker. it also looks like we won't get jonah bolden. which raises the question: why, a few months removed from the national championship game, is our 2014 recruiting class so meh?
at least according to espn (http://insider.espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/classra…) our class is 27 in the nation, behind northwestern, alabama, illinois, san diego st. and plenty of other teams that haven't had much success recently, or at least not the success that we have.
caveats apply: (1) beilein has shown an unbelievable ability to see talent where others do not; and (2) he's also shown the ability to maximize that talent.
but the question still stands. is our class just ok because it takes time to build relationships and when recruiting started for this class it was long before the NC game? is it because we're banking scholarships? because no one expects hatch to be able to play?
just some thoughts for those with more knowledge than me.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:03 PM ^
Basketball recruiting will always be up and down and recent success doesnt always translate well in bball. Honestly im not worried. 2015 and 2016 should be big years. If we have a down year next season it wouldnt be the end of the world although Beilein has been able to do great things with minimal talent like 2008. Even without Mcgary and Robinson (hopefully thats all we lose) Walton, Irvin, Stauskas, LeVert, Horford and the freshman comin in should make for a fun season and theres more than enough talent to compete in the big ten and make the tournament.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:46 PM ^
I agree with this.
And why do we think Donnal and Doyle won't be big enough? Not asking you, but the OP. Both are 6'9", and they are 230 and 235, respectively. And that's before a solid year of college S&C (or even a senior year of high school, in Doyle's case). McGary is 6'10" 255, and I think we can all agree he's plenty big. Morgan is 6'8" 250, and a very good defender.
There's no reason those two can't be there.
EDIT: Oops, the Donnal/Doyle stuff was for Mat below. I will C&P for him.
November 12th, 2013 at 7:31 PM ^
I posted this in a thread last week but no one answered. I think we should be very concerned about our big man depth for 2014 and 2015. Donnal and Doyle don't project as defensive first centers and neither are known for their shot blocking. That's a much more valuable trait now that charge calls are so hard to come by. When Horford is on the bench next year we will have air behind him when it comes to any defensive presence. 2015 could be worse unless we find a defensive center for the 2014 or 2015 recruting classes. If these block/charge rules stick then your larger more athletic types are going to become much more important than your Jordan Morgan types on the defensive end.
November 13th, 2013 at 9:03 AM ^
I think we get by for 2014 and we are in on some major big men in 2015. Next year certainly won't be like the frontcour this year, but you'll still have Horford, Bielfeldt, and Doyle. For those thinking Donnal is going to play center, there's just no way. Maybe in exhibitions, but that will not hold up in conference season. By 2015, you hope either Bielfeldt or Doyle takes that next step and you can add a talented big man in the 2015 class.
Also, I'm not sure why people thinking a Final Four appearance automatically equals recruiting success. Most of these recruitments started not months, but years ago. If there is a benefit, it won't be for awhile. Plus, remember, if you want top talent, you're competing with Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and other big names. A nice tourney run is great, but it's still going to hard to sell that winning over teams like Kansas. Has anybody looked at Bill Self's success? He has more conference championships than home losses. Let that sink in.
November 12th, 2013 at 9:29 PM ^
Honestly that 6'9" Donnal number may not be all that accurate. He didn't look much taller than Glenn Robinson out there. He also needs to put on a lot of weight. I'm not sure if you have seen him in person (At one of the exhibition games), but Donnal really doesn't seem all that big.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:04 PM ^
Basketball recruiting works on an entirely different cycle than football recruiting.
We wont see major dividends from our Final Four run until next year.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:06 PM ^
We're not banking scholarships, it was a swing and miss. It happens. IF it happens again in '15, we can start to worry about not capitalizing on the program's success.
'15 is a huge year for recruiting now. Need to find a big man to replace McGary/Horford/Morgan - and Donnel and Doyle don't sound like they're going to be big enough to be a forces defensively. Also need to find the next PG, which seems easier to acheive than the big man.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:38 PM ^
Dude is ridiculous.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:47 PM ^
Why do we think Donnal and Doyle won't be big enough? Both are 6'9", and they are 230 and 235, respectively. And that's before a solid year of college S&C (or even a senior year of high school, in Doyle's case). McGary is 6'10" 255, and I think we can all agree he's plenty big. Morgan is 6'8" 250, and a very good defender.
November 13th, 2013 at 12:34 AM ^
Morgan isn't big enough, yet outweighs those guys by 20 lbs. McGary is bigger than them too.
Compare to what other title contending teams put out there at center. It's great if we want to play a small 4-man, but you need a defensive presence to get away with it and still contend for a Big 10 title.
November 13th, 2013 at 10:58 AM ^
November 13th, 2013 at 12:15 PM ^
This team is not a title contending team with a Morgan-sized player at center. It's just not.
If the guy is 250, he better be taller than 6'8 or have very long arms. Williams and Payne are a lot longer than Morgan. Rebounding is about more than size, so OK, but shot-blocking is 80% about length.
Michigan needs a defensive, physical presence on the interior, especially because it likes to play an extra wing.
If we roll with Donnal or Doyle as our primary big men, this team will not win any titles. They'll get dominated physically. Even if those guys become 40% shooters from 3, it's advantage other guys.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:05 PM ^
Why does it look like we won't get Bolden? I was under the impression that he wasn't close to deciding and will be taking visits and such in the spring?
I am not worried in the least about the recruiting because JB has shown the ability to maximize results from his roster and because there is plenty of talent on the team (not headed for the NBA) and also waiting in the wings. We may not always be potential national title contenders like this year, but I am confident we will be seeing this team in the sweet 16 as often as not for the forseeable future. In addition, the recruiting for 15 looks bright, you don't have to have a great class every year in basketball unless everyone goes pro like UK.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:07 PM ^
John Beilein is a great coach no question but i think the staff he has assembeled is top notch. They should be given just as much credit and as long as we can keep them in AA, we should be just fine
November 12th, 2013 at 5:09 PM ^
i have no inside knowledge, but between espn and 247, 3 recruiting analysts have made predictions of where bolden will sign, and none has predicted michigan.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^
But I think even Beilein would admit he got pretty damn lucky with Trey Burke.
There have also been failures along the way. Beilein is not immune from them -- from highly ranked guys (Brudidge, Smotrycz, LLP*) to 3-stars, Vogrich, Bielfeldt, McLimans, Cronin. Not every 3 star is going to be a quality complementary player like Novak, Douglass, Morgan, Albreht and very few of them, even for Beilein will turn into NBA players like Hardaway and Burke.
*transfer, but a big deal one at the time
November 12th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^
November 13th, 2013 at 9:09 AM ^
I agree with the commentor above. Some of those "misses" probably werne't as big of misses as some think. Look at Vogrich, he started at the beginning of last season. The reason he lost playing time was because Stauskas blew up and LeVert improved his game so dramatically. Give him to half the Big Ten and he at least gets in their rotation.
Smotrycz was a talented guy, he was just forced to play out of position. If he got to play alongside McGary, he would have been a monster. Plus, he transferred so it's not like Beilein could predict the guy would not want to stay 4 years.
Carlton Brundidge was definitely a miss. If you saw the guy play (in the little time he got), he had some major issues running an offense. But considering all the guys Beilein has taken in recent years, I think I'm ok with one miss.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:41 PM ^
I think some of those "misses" would be contributors on lesser teams, and Cronin just had an unfortunate health issue. Interestingly, we will see how Smot and McLimans do this year. Brundidge is the one that confuses me since I don't think he should have ever been considered anything more than a mid-major prospect. I just didn't see it. Trey Burke is largely a product of his own dedication and mental toughness, so yes, anyone that got him was likely to benefit hugely. PSU probably would have even made the tourney with him.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:31 PM ^
Eh, Metrics is a fine player, he had 13 and 9 in his first game for Maryland (against UConn, not a guarantee game opponents). Just didn't like it at Michigan, it happens. In the end it's probably better for all parties concerned.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:25 PM ^
The 4 teams recruiting Bolden the hardest are UCLA, Louisville, Indiana and SMU.
He still needs to takes tests or hasn't sent out his scores yet.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:32 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 5:06 PM ^
Blackmon is from Indiana and had been committed there for a long time before his brief frolic back into the world of being uncommitted. Booker quickly fell in love with Kentucky, because Kentucky sends everyone to the NBA and because you get the hang out w/ Jay-Z and because John Calapari is dreamy and such. Tate and Bates-Diop committed to OSU before Michigan's Final Four run.
Otherwise, the notion that you don't get in late on MBB guys makes a lot of sense. They're being recruited now at such young ages that it would be hard to make a dent in one year. You have to be Kentucky (with Jay-Z!) to get in that late.
(Cue response that says, "You're accepting failure." And I say, "No I'm not." And someone says, "This is Michigan! John Beilein has failed! Kill all the brutes! The horror! The horror!")
November 13th, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
Agree with this. Think the negativity is pretty interesting to follow. We were in on almost all of these recruits before the Final Four run. The fact that we were even in one these recruits with bluebloods like Kentucky should say something.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:08 PM ^
I think the main reason is sample size. In football recruiting, with 20-25 kids per class, the classes even out quite a bit. In basketball recruiting, with <5 kids per class, getting lucky/unlucky with one or two kids can make the difference between a great class and a lousy class.
To me, if we're looking for trends, look for whether Michigan is involved with top recruits and whether this staff has shown some ability to finish with them. I think the answer to both questions is yes. It sucks that we missed on Blackmon, Booker, etc., but if we're using this to predict our long-term recruiting potential, I'd be much more worried if we weren't getting serious looks from those types of prospects. Plus, we're just one class removed from the McGary, Robinson, etc. powerhouse class.
I also think that the Final Four run (and pretty play) will pay off later and that even if we never reach Kentucky-level recruiting we have coaches who can win with other kinds of talent. So I'm not worried.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:17 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 5:27 PM ^
I don't get it either. He is the #32 ranked (247 composite) player in the nation.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:31 PM ^
We are spoiled.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:23 PM ^
The downside of recruiting highly-ranked kids like Booker (or the 2014 kid from Ohio) is that they will be plan A or B guys for schools like Duke and KY which will prove stiff competition. But at least we have a shot with these kids, something we didn't as recently as 2 years ago.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:44 PM ^
- Spike Albrecht
- Zack Novak
- Stu Douglass
- Trey Burke (committed to PSU at one point
I think John Beilein knows what he's doing.
November 12th, 2013 at 5:54 PM ^
Don't forget GRIII and THJ, who were pretty much nobodies (aside from having famous fathers) when Beilein started recruiting them, and then they blew up.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:17 PM ^
Couple years from now, we might be adding DJ Wilson to that list.
He is one of those recruits who went through a crazy growth spurt in one year. So he is a forward size recruit who grew up playing guard and handling the ball.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:32 PM ^
And we might not be far away from adding Caris LeVert to that list.
November 12th, 2013 at 8:23 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 10:17 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 10:44 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 11:55 PM ^
When he committed to Michigan he was a 3-star Purdue didn't want. A lot of people were underwhelmed when he committed to us, saying we only offered him because of his dad. He later blew up and shot up the rankings, but when we picked him up, he was an after thought to most teams, including the one from his home state his dad starred for.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:55 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 7:08 PM ^
well outperformed rankings/scouting/general expectations. drastically, in the case of Burke
November 12th, 2013 at 5:46 PM ^
No one in the country outside of Beilein was willing to even give Albrecht a chance to play. And look at what Albrecht has done in just one year. Even if we strike out on top prospects this year, we'll be fine going forward. Let's also remember that we're in on a lot of top talent for 2015.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:03 PM ^
The team made it to the final four. Great, really cool. If I'm a high school recruit right now though, I still don't view Michigan as an elite option.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:38 PM ^
That's silly though. Who are your elite options then? Only Kansas, Duke and Kentucky?
And it's pretty clear the elite recruits disagree. They're not all picking us, but Booker and Blackmon, who are certainly elite recruits, put Michigan in their top 2/3, as did guys like Blueitt and Bates-Diop. And Blackmon (who is better than most of the guys I just listed) picked us despite living 2500 miles away.
Michigan is a brand people recognize, it offer an education matched by only a few top sports programs and Beilein is a very well respected coach who has been around a while. This is in addition to the fact that we play in the most competitive basketball conference in America and we have a Big Ten title and Final Four appearance in the last two years. Oh, and we just had two players drafted in the first round, one of which who was the National POY.
I'm not saying we're the #1 program, but there aren't a lot of reasons why a recruit wouldn't like us.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:41 PM ^
There's also the fact that a couple of ex-NBA players - guys who have reached the big-time and know what it takes - have sent their sons here. To me, that's a huge endorsement of our program.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:44 PM ^
I dont think the big dogg was all that involved in GR3's decision, and Hardaway Jr. didn't have any clearly better offers. The more important thing is that AAU coaches are funnelling kids in Indiana and Ohio toward Beilein.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:54 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 7:05 PM ^
Well, coaches Jordan and Meyer have Indiana roots, but you may be forgetting Derrick Walton from Detroit. I think Beilein, with the help of Bacari Alexander is certainly going to get his fair share of Detroit kids if they are offered/ pursued. I'm hoping Cassius Winston is offered, and that would probably make another one. Which in-state kids have we gone after hard and lost these last few years? I may be blanking.
November 12th, 2013 at 6:47 PM ^
November 12th, 2013 at 7:04 PM ^
I agree with you on most of those, but there is very little that separates Michigan between most of the teams you listed. There's a reason we're #7 in the country after losing 2 first rounders. The program is strong right now.
November 12th, 2013 at 7:07 PM ^
I don't think there's a real pecking order at the top of the B1G. I think we're pretty much interchangeable with MSU, Ohio and IU at this point. We can beat any of them head-to-head in a recruiting battle.
November 12th, 2013 at 7:26 PM ^
what more do you want? we're in the conversation with these teams at this point. The NCAA run wasn'tt going to vault us into that elite category after one year. The schools you mentioned either have exalted, pantheon status going back ages (UCLA, Indiana), or have won at least one national championship, plus have had sustained tourney and conference success for well over a decade (UF, MSU, OSU, Ariz). We have a little more work to do.
Now that it looks like Michigan is back to regularly competing for the B1G and making tourney appearnaces, I think our value proposition to elite recruits is as good any team outside of Duke & Kentucky. It's just a matter of fit and geographic preference. Why did Irvan choose UM over Indiana?
The Michigan athletics brand, the school itself, the nationally respected coach plus excellent staff, new facilities, the recent Finals run, the recent (and future) NBA talent..all make a compelling case for Michigan. I think we're in good shape to land a few bigger fish, and we know Belien will find some sleepers as well.