2014 Football Season Over/Unders
This is based on nothing aside from what sounds reasonable to me at this given moment.
Feel free to critique.
Team wins (regular season): 8.5
Devin Gardner
- 2750 yards passing
- 23.5 TD passes
- 9.5 interceptions
- 400 yards rushing
- 8.5 rushing TDs
Deveon Smith
- 650 yards rushing
- 8.5 TDs
Derrick Green
- 650 yards rushing
- 7.5 TDs
Drake Johnson
- 400 yards rushing
- 3.5 TDs
Justice Hayes
- 225 yards rushing
- 1.5 TDs
Devin Funchess
- 1050 yards receiving
- 7.5 TDs
Amara Darboh
- 550 yards receiving
- 3.5 TDs
Jehu Chesson
- 500 yards receiving
- 3.5 TDs
Freddy Canteen
- 450 yards receiving
- 4.5 TDs
Jake Butt
- 350 yards receiving
- 3.5 TDs
Dennis Norfleet
- 175 yards receiving
- 100 yards rushing
- 2.5 TDs
Frank Clark
- 7.5 sacks
- 14.5 TFL
Mario Ojemudia
- 2.5 sacks
- 4.5 TFL
Taco Charlton
- 2.5 sacks
- 4.5 TFL
Ondre Pipkins
- 3.5 sacks
- 10.5 TFL
Willie Henry
- 3.5 sacks
- 7.5 TFL
Chris Wormley
- 2.5 sacks
- 4.5 TFL
Brennen Beyer
- 5.5 sacks
- 11.5 TFL
Desmond Morgan
- 60.5 tackles
- 3.5 sacks
- 7.5 TFL
Joe Bolden
- 70.5 tackles
- 3.5 sacks
- 6.5 TFL
Jake Ryan
- 115 tackles
- 3.5 sacks
- 8.5 TFL
- 1.5 INTs
James Ross III
- 84.5 tackles
- 3.5 sacks
- 10.5 TFL
Blake Countess
- 5.5 INTs
- 5.5 PBU
Jourdan Lewis
- 2.5 INTs
- 3.5 PBU
Raymon Taylor
- 3.5 INTs
- 11.5 PBU
Jarrod Wilson
- 65 tackles
- 3.5 INTs
Delano Hill
- 42.5 tackles
- 1.5 INTs
Dymonte Thomas
- 33.5 tackles
- 1.5 INTs
Jabrill Peppers
- 3.5 INTs
- 5.5 PBU
August 10th, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^
8.5 sounds much more reasonable.
3.5 for peppers is beyond optmistic as a betting line.
August 10th, 2014 at 4:36 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
That's what I was trying to convey. I do understand the line isn't a prediction. The finer details of sports betting are admittedly beyond me.
Re: Peppers, I'd set it at 2.5. Even that is wildly optmistic but it's more in line with his own prediction.
August 10th, 2014 at 8:52 PM ^
I just want to know how a player gets 8.5 rushing touchdowns. Emphasis "half."
August 10th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^
I think Gardner cuts down on his interceptions. Finishes with 6 or 7 interceptions and crosses the 3000 yard mark.
Over 650 for Smith, I'm expecting closer to 800 with about 500 to the second back (either Green or Johnson).
Even 175 yards of receiving for Norfleet seems high
August 10th, 2014 at 5:24 PM ^
I'm hoping for Norfleet to break 4-5 short passes into long gains, but I'm an optimist.
August 10th, 2014 at 4:19 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 4:21 PM ^
I'll take the under on both RB yardage. We are going to pass a lot and Gardner / Johnson are going to accumulate some ground yardage too.
I'll take the over on Jake Ryan interceptions. 2 or 3 seems more reasonable to me.
I'd love to see Funchess crack 1,000 yards receiving but I'll take the under there.
Definitely the under on Hayes rushing yards. I think he will end up around 175.
If Jarrod Wilson gets 65 tackles, we are not going to have as good of a season as many think. So I'm definitely going under there too.
August 10th, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^
Assuming all the RB's score on rushing TD's and no receiving, with no defensive or special teams scoring, you set the average score per regular season game at 30.9 = 31.
Just an obseravtion.
August 10th, 2014 at 5:16 PM ^
I'd put the over/under on made field goals at 15.5. That puts them in the 34-35 ppg range. Add in the occassional defensive/special teams TD, plus junk TDs by the backups in blowouts, and I can see this team ending up with a 36-38 ppg average by year's end.
August 10th, 2014 at 7:05 PM ^
If we average 36-38 ppg that will be improvement from last year (32.2). If we can get to below 20 ppg against, we were 26.8 last year, I'd say we have a decent shot at 10+ wins. By the way I'm sure it's been stated but we had the 47th best offense last year vs. 67th best defense when going by points for and points against. This is probably not tempo adjusted or anything like that since these stats are per ESPN but if we can even slightly improve on that offensive ranking and have the kind of defense we're all hoping for, bordering on if not actually elite, then I think we may have some good success this year. We're so close to the season now. Can't wait for the release of the preview posts.
August 10th, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^
On August 10th? The OVER on each and every one!
August 11th, 2014 at 12:36 AM ^
Absolute truth.
Positive quotes, hope, hype. Everyone is a fan in August.
All weight changes are good, everyone is better than last year, all position changes are no-brainers. August is the best time to be a fan. And as cynical as this sounds, I love August "football".
August 10th, 2014 at 4:27 PM ^
on every single one of those. in fact, double-over, including the first team to win 35 games in a single college football season. really. 35. you watch....
August 10th, 2014 at 4:35 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 4:37 PM ^
I'm kind of surprised we're so low in Vegas. Yeah, we went 7-6 last year but we have almost everyone coming back on defense.
August 10th, 2014 at 5:17 PM ^
I am not. Again see OL. This was an 8th place team last year. If it was off you'd see a lot of money coming into the # and it would be 8.5.
Here is a reasonable analysis of guaranteed wins and probable losses
2 guaranteed wins - App St, Miami (OH).
I cannot consider any other win guaranteed after UConn and Akron last year. The OL is not going to be steps ahead of last year, esp in Sept/Oct unless you drink a lot of Kool aid.
Probable losses - @ND, @MSU, @OSU. Yeah yeah we can win any of those. But right now that is not the probability. Hoke has yet to win a meaningful road game and young teams on the road usually falter.
That gives you 2-3 with 7 toss up games. UM has to win 6 of those 7 to surpass 7.5. Will UM win all but 1 of those games? It would assume UM plays pretty darn well to go 6-1 against a lot of teams that are at least mediocre.
IMO
- @NW is going to be a tough game.
- PSU proved to be similar to UM - I consider the 2 programs to be at about the same spot right now.
- Utah played Stanford and ASU - 2 teams better than UM last year, very well. No guarantee there.
- Minnesota is improved and not a pushover.
- Maryland has weapons on offense to score some serious pts if it comes together esp against a secondary that has a lot to prove.
- @Rutgers is not much different than @UConn.
- That leaves Indiana at home as the only "easy win" of this group.
A UM homer will look at those 7 games and say we are clearly superior to all those teams and no problem. Yet UM even in its heydey lost 1-2 of those type of games almost yearly. So no reason not to believe 1 of those games is a loss and potentially more.
So what I am saying is UM could be better and have the same record or slighty better. Reality was last year's schedule was very favorable for UM (OSU, ND, and Neb at home, NW was decimated, Akron sucked, UConn sucked, Indiana had no defense, PSU lost by 1000 to OSU). So they didn't take advantage last year of an easier schedule then they will have this year IMO.
TL; DR - team could be better on the field this year and get the same W-L result or slightly better.
August 10th, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^
turn on o line play.
If it's as bad as last year, it'll be bad.
If not, none of those are toss up games.
August 10th, 2014 at 5:27 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 7:08 PM ^
I am not claiming we will lose games because we used to. I am claiming it because Michigan team of 2014 is not vast amounts superior to many opponents in that list of 7 opponents. Sorry we are not leaps and bounds better than most of those teams. We were an 8th place team last year with a pretty easy schedule; we could be a better team this year and finish 5th overall for example. I think UM is in a group with Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State and NW where if you throw those teams on a field and play a round robin you'd see a lot of series of 6-4, or 5-5 over 10 games.
A decimated Northwestern team played us even last year. Indiana scored on us every 90 seconds for a 2 quarter stretch last year. (I happen to think we'll beat them soundly this year) We outplayed PSU but some dumb decisions had us even. Iowa outplayed us. Nebraska came to our house and beat us. Etc game after game.
My point is there is not a large room for error for this team even if there is an improvement year over year. I don't see a huge improvement on offense this year unless Devin turns into Vince Young Jr 10 of the 12 games - I see some improvement on defense but it's no guarantee. I expect a lot more improvement in 2015 as the offense will have experience it lacks this year.
So 1 bad turnover, or 1 bad special teams play is the difference between a win and loss in many of those 7 games. Whereas the UM team of 10-12 years ago had a lot more room for error. They could screw up multiple times and still usually won as it was a seasoned team loaded with upperclassmen every year (and had more NFL talent to be blunt); this one is not experienced on offense. And we still had some losses very bad to mediocre teams in that era, when we had more cushion.
I have not seen the huge positive direction for our OC yet. Have you? I have not seen a single game UM has played with the new OC. You can scheme all you want and simplify - a crew of young OL needs to execute it. A bunch of WRs who have never played a college game need to deliver. TEs who have never caught a ball (a combined 1 catch between them) need to execute until Butt gets back. I have no proof all this will happen due to a deity installed at OC because I have yet to see this team play a game - maybe there was a game I missed. I assume it will be better and I presume it will be a lot better in 2015, but until proven otherwise its an assumption in 2014 for me... and you.
August 10th, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^
But I understand based on a few of the games last year.
August 10th, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 6:30 PM ^
7/12 games are tossups with 3 probable losses cumong man. If our defense was as good as it should be last year and we still had the crap OL we would have gone 10-2.
August 10th, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^
We had an easier schedule last year IMO. OSU at home is easier than OSU on the road. ND at home is easier than ND on the road. Northwestern should be much more healthy. I think Utah is a better football team than UConn and by a significant margin (their record is deceiving when you look at who they lost to) - so does playing them at home make it an easy game? I don't view it that way. If they could match up physically with Stanford it tells me they have some decent beef on the lines which is our current issue.
The two games that swing easier in 2014 are not facing Iowa on the road, and we switch PSU from on the road to home, but I think when you analyze the overall schedule it's incrementally more difficult.
August 10th, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^
I will take the overat 7.5 vs the under for a case of Pabst Blue Ribbon or a good bottle of scotch. I understand your concerns based on last year but this team should be vastly improved from last year. Two of the major reasons are:
- We will be better and deeper at every position on defense (SS?)which should provide a big jump in produciton.
- Nuss is going to a much better job with offense. The schemes will help the o-line and I believe Nuss will do a better job of coaching up the mental part of the game for Devin.
I am sure you hope your wrong. Go Blue.
August 11th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
I'm going with the 'Over' on the basis of not only will the O-line be better, it surely could not get much worse than last year. I think the simplified schemes will make it relatively successful. Devin will be better this year as a senior, I don't believe he will back slide. The defense this year should be better as we didn't lose too much and we've made some gains as well as more experience. Offensively, we will have more weapons at our disposal. Of course this is all 'August talk' but I do feel the team execution will be much improved and I like hearing some of the players saying, "We're tired of losing". The last time I heard a player say that in a significant way was Chuck Woodson - before the 1997 season.
August 10th, 2014 at 5:12 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
9 wins...,,,meh... ok. Realistic.
10 wins shuts most people up.
11 wins....puts us in good shape for the playoff next season....recruiting will improve. We need credibility on the football field peeps. Let's hope expectations are exceeded this year.
(((GO BLUE!)))
August 10th, 2014 at 5:40 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
Just so everyone is aware, and assuming about 300-ish attempt at about a 60% completion rate (just a hypothetical), the given stats for the over/under would produce a QB rating that, by the NCAA's calculations, would be around 156. That is typically good enough for an upper quartile most years in Division I, and from Devin, I think we could get upper quartile quite easily if some other things fall into place.
August 10th, 2014 at 6:19 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 6:52 PM ^
Realistically happen.
Id be watching that blue ray for a long time.
August 10th, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
on the interceptions. I like your optimism, but those numbers are too high. Nice work overall, though.
August 10th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
August 10th, 2014 at 8:06 PM ^
Over on interceptions... 16 in regular season... 5 in playoffs