chance of bowl: 13.6%
Out of curiosity what was your worst case scenario for this year's team?
2-3. There is nothing yet in Hoke's resume at Michigan that should give us any sense of false security that we're going to turn things around and start winning road games against quality opponents. We have yet to win even one road game against a team with a better than 500 record.
Until I see it happen once I'm betting against it happening.
fall off of a cliff next year. They con't have the recruiting to remain consistant. They are likely losing 7 from their defense and more importantly Narduzzi (hopefully). State could easily be a 6-6 team next year.
If our OL gels (i know, I know) we could be looking at a season like State is having this year. We need to start winning on the road....i think that happens with maturity and we will start to see that next year. ALSO- we just seem to have ND's number lately. Devin will go for 450 yds on them and our D is going to make a mightly leap forward next year.
I don't buy the recruiting argument. Dantonio and Nardawg keep turning 3* recruits into all Big Ten defensive players even though we have been killing them on the recruiting trails.
MSU has out coached Hoke and Co in every game so far. It took a favorable spot on 4th down and a great catch by Dileo to win last year. Michigan has not scored a TD against MSU in 2 years. Sorry but I don't see Staee falling off a cliff.
where was State just last year?? State is GREAT defensively this year, no question. However, their recruiting doens't and won't allow them to be consistantly good. They are losing 7 starters, most of all will be NFL players. They are losing their defensive guru. They most certainly will take a step back.
You comment like they've been getting double digit W's every year. They were average a year ago and lose a ton. They have done a great job coaching up players.
Dantonio seems to be able to find the players he wants for his system. If the coaching staff at State can get them to perform well then star rankings do not matter. The suckitude of the RR years helped Dantonio immensely. Even last year when State went 7-6 Michigan could not score a TD. Sorry if I don't buy the "MSU is going away" argument.
How can ND allow Everett Golson back into school? Wow! The Pope would bounce his ass off campus!
I could see a loss @Rutgers. I am always weary of away games to stadiums no one on the team has ever seen before. This is why I thought we'd win our home game against Nebraska in 2011 and lose the road trip in 2012. I hope Rutgers is just really bad.
I don't think @NW is a real road game.
At this point, with this coaching staff, every road game is a tossup, from OSU to Purdue. Our road performances are so woeful that until proven otherwise, I have zero faith that this staff can win a road game against a good opponent.
Call me a pessimist, but given the results over the past three years, I also consider myself a realist.
That is how I fell. Just a realist. A win @ND and dominating @Rutgers could have me feeling better.
The term "toss up" refers to a coin toss, in which the odds are 50-50 heads-tails.
I think you mean that the winnable games are toss ups at best and the tougher games are losses.
Okay maybe over Rutgers.
you must be really fun at parties...
also loses 4 starting OL and their D will be equal to what it is now if not worse. not sure what ND will have for returning starters on both sides of the ball
Not sure why we'd be worried about Gholson. He was never that amazing and now hasn't played for a year and we get him early. My feelings on Sparty depend on Narduzzi's status. Northwestern is what they are and have ways been. Miller didn't beat us this year, Hyde did, and I hope the loss of him will be more of a loss than the gain of home field advantage. These are my thoughts but after this year I offer no predictions.
ND - Going out on a limb and saying we win. Golson is back, but he wasn't great by any stretch last year, so I'm not convinced he's the solution. Plus they lose Tuitt and Nix with no apparent replacement.
Rutgers - This should be a win. They were a mediocre AAC team, so they should be a mediocre-at-best B1G team.
MSU - Sadly, we contine this awful stretch of losing. It's no longer a "let's spend 364 days gameplanning for this," it's just a team with a great defense and generally effective-enough offense. As long as Dantonio is there, winning in East Lansing isn't going to be easy.
Northwestern - Win. No more Kain Colter, and Siemian isn't the Unstoppable Throw God he was last year. Venric Mark returning is scary, but without a truly mobile QB he's not the same threat from the RB spot.
OSU - Loss. No more Hyde, but they're not exactly hurting for offensive playmakers, as it would be incredibly surprising to see Miller go to the NFL when he doesn't have a viable position. 11 games to get a new OL to gel, plus returning all that DL talent, and it's going to be tough to win in Columbus.
This sums things up perfectly. The time for excuses is over.
Win them all? If that's your expectation, then prepare for disappointment.
Then after 2014 it will be "this is Shane's first year starting, just wait until next year" etc.
@ND - I think their defense will take a step back. I don't think Gholston is a game changer, and I think our defense takes a big step forward. It'll be a challenge. But I think we win
@RU - Win
@NW - Win
@MSU - Their defense also loses a ton. Their offense might take a step forward, but I don't think they'll ever be anything much more than effective and efficient (i.e not scary, explosive). Win, we need it.
@OSU - I think they'll be better. But I also believe we'll be much better. I think we'll be good enough to beat a great team on the road. Loss, but it's a push.
I have a reputation for being an optimist. I think our program takes a permanent step forward next year. 10 wins, even with the schedule. At least 2-1 versus rivals. And don't underestimate a team that has been beaten up verbally and physically as underclassmen. Just like 2011, I think we'll have a chip on our shoulder - except we'll also be a better team across the board.
My son and I have met in AA for a football weekend every season since 2002. With the crappy home slate for 2014, we are thinking its time for a road trip to an away game. Targeting ND for the series finale or the first-ever visit to Rutgers. Thoughts, anyone?
The crappy home slate is why I'm not getting season tickets this year. It will be cheaper to just buy PSU night game tickets on stubhub. The rest of the games will be going for below face value in the secondary markets.
I predict Michigan wins some road games, loses others.
No one is concerned that Hoke has not won a game on the road against a team that finished above .500, in THREE years?
We'll be on the road against our two Rivals who combined have one loss in 2013. MSU has eaten Borges's lunch three years straight and OSU may still be undefeated under Meyer and the reigning national champs...
Not trying to be a negative Nancy, but when your OC has had like, 10 games under 300 yards and like, 5 games without TDs... and the head coach is HAPPY with the job the guy is doing... well, what can you expect really.
My prediction is that the line still sucks, and Space Coyote will have to explain to everyone how you have to wait for that magical year when all 5 of your offensive linemen are 5* RS Seniors with three years starting experience in order to average above 3 yards/attempt. It would not shock me if we lost all of our road games, though I will probably still go to at least 3 of them.
I'm not worried about Golson personally. I don't really think he is that good to be honest. I think we beat notre dame
at this point, i'd be much more concerned about the Minn game at home than @NW
If they lose 3 out of 5 of those there should be wholesale changes to the staff and a complete re-evalatuion of the direction of the program.
If Michigan goes 9-3 next year and beats Ohio State and Michigan State, I think I would be okay with that.
That would mean you predict us to go 7-0 at home no? I see 2 sure Wins and 5 games that this year makes me questionable on.
App State - Win, no doubt about it
Miami (OH) - Win, See above
Utah - 33 in sagarin ratings with a 5-7 record in the Pac12,
Minnesota - No longer a guaranteed win.
Penn State - Will the sanction bomb ever hit?
Indiana - If they find even a slightly below average defense look out
Maryland - 7-5 in the ACC.
I'm not predicting anything. I'm saying I would be satisfied with 9-3 and wins against OSU and MSU.
Wait, why are we so concerned with Minnesota? Is this what our pessimism and negativity has come to? People do remember that we handled them pretty easily this year, at home, right? Other than the one march down the field, we kept them in check pretty well. They went on a run after that against the weakest part of the schedule, but let's not make them out to be a 10-win team or anything.
Well, if you used the Sagarin numbers right now to predict 2014 - which is a not the best thing to do because of the lack of 2014 data, so take the conclusion for what it is worth - we could likely be 2-3. We would be favored against Rutgers and Northwestern, a slight underdog against ND and a sizeable underdog against MSU and Ohio State. Again, that's based on present data, which may or may not mean as much in 2014. There's still much we don't know.
Yeah, not a bad exercise but not particularly telling either. All teams lose players, and it's still unknown how many that will be, though it's possible (if not likely) that all three lose more talent than we do. Especially in the case of OSU and ND, where their QB situation for 2014 is up in the air.