2014 Football Point Spreads
The Golden Nugget in Vegas opened betting on the 2014 season today and released point spreads.
9/6 Michigan Wolverines at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3
9/27 Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines -12
10/11 Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines -7
10/25 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans -7.5
11/8 Michigan Wolverines -3 at Northwestern Wildcats
11/29 Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes -8
At the link below, you can find other games of interest:
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Golden-Nuggets-college-football-point-spreads-have-arrived.html
SATURDAY 8/30
California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats -9.5
Ohio State Buckeyes -14 at Navy Midshipmen
Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 at Central Florida Knights (Ireland)
LSU Tigers -7 vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Houston)
SATURDAY 9/6
USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal -3.5
Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks -13
Virginia Tech Hokies at Ohio State Buckeyes -18
SATURDAY 9/14
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes -9.5
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21 (Indianapolis)
SATURDAY 9/20
Miami Hurricanes at Nebraska Cornhuskers -3
SATURDAY 9/27
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5.5 vs. Syracuse Orange
Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes -21
THURSDAY 10/2
Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks -25
SATURDAY 10/4
LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers -6.5
Wisconsin Badgers -7 at Northwestern Wildcats
Stanford Cardinal -6 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans -8
SATURDAY 10/11
Oregon Ducks -3 at UCLA Bruins
LSU Tigers -9 at Florida Gators
North Carolina Tar Heels at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.5
SATURDAY 10/18
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles -24
Nebraska Cornhuskers -2.5 at Northwestern Wildcats
SATURDAY 10/25
Ohio State Buckeyes -9 at Penn State Nittany Lions
THURSDAY 10/30
Florida State Seminoles -17 at Louisville Cardinals
SATURDAY 11/1
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks -10
SATURDAY 11/8
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun
Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5 at LSU Tigers
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans -1
Iowa Hawkeyes PICK at Minnesota Golden Gophers
THURSDAY 11/13
California Golden Bears at USC Trojans -34
SATURDAY 11/15
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wisconsin Badgers -7
Northwestern Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -8
SATURDAY 11/22
Wisconsin Badgers -6 at Iowa Hawkeyes
FRIDAY 11/28
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes -1
SATURDAY 11/29
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans -10
Florida State Seminoles -17 at Florida Gators
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats -9.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers -13
It's an annual rite of passage for OSU football. Play way down to at least one or two non-conference opponents, appear weak, then just bludgeon Big Ten as usual, then lose big time bowl game. Repeat.
Navy runs flexbone offense that features a ton of triple option plays. They'll hold onto the ball for about 7-8 minutes per possession and OSU defense will be undisciplined thus making easier for Navy to get 5-6 yards a carry. The longer they hold onto the ball, the greater the chance that Navy will cover the spread.
Navy nearly beat Ohio State, 31-27. That was the year Ohio State ended up beating Oregon in the Rose (finishing 11-2).
Sure, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio State blow out Navy. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them struggle. With a new OL. In their season opener. On the road.
Michigan used to play Navy fairly often in the Bo era. A lot of those games were blowouts, but several of them were far too close for comfort.
That line against ohio is a joke.
This year's team will be better than last year's. Michigan lost by a point last year.
And the road game thing......one TD would've ended that thing. Michigan shut down their offense only allowing two TDs. If only Borges hadn't packed it in at halftime....
You may be right, and I hope you are, but until it happens you're going to see a line like that. Remember it isn't a game prediction, it's a money balancer.
The sole purpose of a betting line is to equal the money bet on each side. It only moves in response to which way the betting is trending. It's not meant to predict anything. People may treat it that way for discussion purposes but prediction has nothing to do with how the number is determined.
An individual's prediction may determine how they bet and that in term ultimately influences the line but the line itself is not a prediction.
While I agree as a whole UM is a better team and OSU is not as good of a team, UM's offensive strengths matched up well with OSU's defensive strengths last year. And the offense probably played thier best game, considering the opposing defense. I'm not sure you can count on another offensive production like that in Columbus, especially with the pass rush coming off the ends for OSU with Spence/Washington/Bosa and Schofield and Lewan gone to handle them. It will be crucial to get the running game going and I'm not yet confident in that.
These are preseason numbers, so all qualifiers about predictions based on previous data apply, but here is Massey's initial outlook with win probabilities as well as points for and against:
| Opponent | Result | PF | PA |
|
Appalachian St
|
98.00%
|
41 | 10 |
|
Notre Dame
|
30.00%
|
21 | 28 |
|
Miami OH
|
100.00%
|
44 | 6 |
|
Utah
|
54.00%
|
31 | 28 |
|
Minnesota
|
67.00%
|
28 | 21 |
|
Rutgers
|
76.00%
|
34 | 24 |
|
Penn St
|
65.00%
|
30 | 24 |
|
Michigan St
|
18.00%
|
14 | 28 |
|
Indiana
|
67.00%
|
41 | 34 |
|
Northwestern
|
54.00%
|
30 | 28 |
|
Maryland
|
78.00%
|
31 | 20 |
|
Ohio St
|
25.00%
|
28 | 37 |
I know this isn't the usual Va Tech, but I'd be very surprised if OSU beats them by 18.
We havent scored a TD against MSU since 2011. It is pathetic and until we prove otherwise this is the type of reputation we will have.
That will be a hell of an interesting game. I could see AZ winning in a shootout, and I could see them getting run out of Outzen on a rail.
I think we win in a close game against PSU. No way Sparty beats us again either.
I hope you're right.
From 1993 through 2013 per my records, the % of time teams win when favored by X points (all D-1A vs D-1A games, there have been at least 165 games for each pointspread, pre-1996 tie games thrown out, there is no accounting for whether home/road/neutral in the numbers below):
3: 55% (ND favored over U-M, U-M favored over NW)
7: 69% (U-M favored over PSU)
7.5: 74% (MSU favored over U-M)
8: 75% (OSU favored over U-M)
12: 82% (U-M favored over Minnesota)
If I did the math right, the expected record for Michigan in these 6 games, would be 3.02-2.98. Darn near exactly .500.
Not sure how much of their D comes back this year, but I could see MSU pulling the upset or at the very least I could see them really frustrating Oregon's offense
Me too. I think Oregon wins by 5-10. If it was in Lansing I think MSU would win. Oregon gets stuffed by good physical defenses which MSU will still have and will continue to have until Dantonio leaves. The defense will fall back from ridiculous to very damn good which was about the level Stanford defense was in 2013. Oregon has an elite QB but its only great returning WR is out with an ACL and everyone else is very young. MSU also showed it can go out west and beat a Pac 12 team which most Big 10 teams suck at. I see that game being something like 31-24.