2013 Phil Steele Top 40 Countdown: #24 Michigan & #23 MSU
2013 Phil Steele Preseason Top 40 Countdown revealed he has Michigan #24 and MSU #23. More importantly, you can get a PDF preview of his writeups on both teams on his website. I still think Steele's previews are the best of all the preview mags just for the stats page.
Countdown: http://www.philsteele.com/miscpages/2013Top40Countdown.html
Michigan (#24): http://www.philsteele.com/Pdf/2013Top40Countdown/24Michigan.pdf
MSU (#23): http://www.philsteele.com/Pdf/2013Top40Countdown/23MichiganSt.pdf
The links for previously covered teams are still active if you are interested. Some teams of note:
Northwestern (#32): http://www.philsteele.com/Pdf/2013Top40Countdown/32Northwestern.pdf
Penn St (#34): http://www.philsteele.com/Pdf/2013Top40Countdown/34PennSt.pdf
Starting this fall, we'll all have to be a little more specific with those initials, assuming Derrick Green gets any playing time at all. I can't wait!
Sounds like the name of an evil velociraptor king
but i think it would be a lot better if he would take out stuff that has no relevancy, such as this:
"In '06 UM all'd just 43 ypg rush (1.9), their best s/'71 but have not had that type of Michigan D the L6Y."
thanks for the update on the defense from 7 years ago. that is not helpful in the least.
fyi - he does have an interesting starting lineup with Braden miller and Kalis in the middle and Green at RB. i think you might see this after game 4, but prolly not game 1. i don't put much stock into his lineup analysis, as our MGoHivemind probably knows more on a day to day three deep.
I thought the more noticeable (and odd) depth chart projection was Taco Charlton as the starter at SDE. That one is completely out of left field.
Im ok with us being under the radar.
Phil Steele.
This is the same guy who has had Oklahoma in the national title game the last 4 years.
As always, the most relevant caveat regarding Steele's ranking/comments on UM is that he is a Buckeye born and raised. While he asserts that he is completely unbiased in his writeups and rankings for his magazine, I have to believe that at least a little OSU-homerism shines through when he is addressing UM.
Flip flop Wilson and Gordon? Still feel Fitz will be starter and I'm cool with Taco!
Michigan has a track record of underperforming against their pre-season rankings (and fans end up ticked off). I went into last season thinking we would run the table and the team got punched in the mouth by Alabama. At least this year, there's a real good probability that we could overachieve which would be fantastic especially without Denard. Devin Gardner will step up and be one of the best quarterbacks in the league especially with Lewan coming back. In my mind, our most experienced players (Gallon, Fitz, Clark, etc.) have to overcome their inconsistency. Some of our best players (Ryan, Fitz, and Countess) have to get overy serious injuries. Our defense is raw and talented, but don't have alot of experience playing together.
This is Michigan - so the expectations are very high. I just hope that we click by the State Game.
you thought we were gonna beat alabama huh?
As crazy as it seems, there were people on this board predicting UM would beat Bama.
Is this a joke? He starts the forecast with the line "Heading into '08" and then spends the first 1/3rd of his forecast talking about LC and RR. None of that has any direct bearing on our team today - we are so different it just isn't relevant at all.
And then he calls us the "Wolves" before getting to his 2 sentence forecast for the season.
Is he just trolling us or is this standard for previews people actually pay for?
Frankly, I couldn't agree more. Every line I read just futher confirmed what I was reading was a pile of garbage. That said, I read the whole thing. How many days until kickoff? I can't wait.
With the four team playoff looming, and S.O.S. being a factor, is anyone else worried about the pre-season polls constantly favoring the SEC?
Despite the strength of the conference, a bunch of SEC schools (especially Georgia) have Wisconsin-esque cupcake OOC schedules annually. Unless they change that, I'm not too worried. I'm also anticipating preseason rankings to have much less determining power.
a good writer.
Why is State getting so much love, especially relative to us and Northwestern? If anything, Northwestern should be higher than both UM and MSU. I wonder if its because of all those rosy predicitions (pun intended) last season for MSU, I mean, they can't be wrong twice in a row can they? Seems like they're still stuck in the 2009-2010 time period when it comes to MSU.
Here's what he forecasted for 2012 (Final AP Rank in parentheses):
1) USC (lulz)
2) Bama (1)
3) LSU (14)
4) Okla (15)
5) Oregon (2)
6) Georgia (5)
7) FSU (10)
8) MICHIGAN (24)
9) So Carolina (8)
10) Arkansas (nr)
11) WVU (nr)
12) Wisc (nr)
13) Mich St (nr)
14) Clemson (11)
15) Texas (19)
16) VaTech (nr)
17) Nebraska (25)
18) Ohio (3)
19) Ok St (nr)
20) TCU (nr)
21) Stanford (7)
22) Kansas St (12)
23) Florida (9)
24) Louisville (13)
25) Boise St (18)
So, 8 of his predicted top25 teams ended up not being ranked. I know he's supposively the best prognosticator, but that was a pretty poor job he did.
I am pretty sure he had FSU #1 last year and Michigan around #22 if I remember correctly. He actually had us pegged about where we ended up.
I don't think he's the best prognosticator but I think his preview mag is the best of bunch (although that is not saying much). His mag is more useful for the content previewing each team than the predictions.
Numbers came from his blog.
Here is last year's MGoBoard discussion that showed he had FSU #1, Ohio St #11 and Michigan #22 which does not gibe with your source. I think you may be referencing some other ranking.
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ohio-state-11-phil-steeles-top-40-countdown
Did you just say that his preview magazine was the best of the bunch? What about HTTV?!?
compared to other prognosticators?
Of the 8 teams he missed on, there's a handful that just about every prognosticator missed on (USC, Wisky, MSU, VaTech, Arkansas).
Phil Steele's magazine has been the most accurate over last ten years and last 5 years. Oeer last 3 years it has been Lindy's by a nose. I am not sure whether there is a significant difference though. Accuracy was measured by how each magazine predicted conference standings.
It will be interesting to follow over as a lot more interesting new analysts have been getting into the college football preseason game the last couple years like Football Outsiders.
Assuming for the moment that this is actually his correct poll, did he really do that poor of a job? Can't really blame him for USC since everyone on the planet thought they'd be good and there wasn't any good reason to expect that meltdown. Same for Arkansas, considering it's hard to predict a team losing its coach and QB. He was right about WVU for a bit, until they completely forgot how to win about halfway through the season.
Missing 8 of the top 25 isn't bad for last year. No one saw ND coming out of nowhere (or had any reason to) no one saw Johnny Manziel coming out of nowhere (especially playing in the SEC West) and I'm sure not a single prognosticator had Utah State, Northern Illinois or San Jose State in their preseason top 25s. Throw in the fact that Vandebilt, Northwestern and Oregon State all finished in the top 25.
Those were the ones he missed. Did you see any other prognosticator who saw those coming?
(This is my first reply/post/anythingever)
Glad to finally make an account and join the community!
We'll see if this team can gain the experience by the start of the conference play to win our division! ND,NU,MSU and OSU games will be tough but winnable. I don't see a dominate team in the B1G. If you look at raw talent OSU may have the edge over Michigan but we are a close second and gaining!
Our record could range from 11-1, if we win most of our close games. 8-4, if we lose most of our close match ups. I think we will split the tough match ups but lose one game we should have won, so I see us going 9-3.
Taco was a monster at the spring game, he is HUGE. He could very well force his way unto the field.
I would be willing to bet a lot of money that Michigan finishes ahead of State this season in every poll
Their defense is worse than last year because they lost their best players NAD the same holds true for their offense...So I gotta predict 5-7 or worse...Also, in our case the players we lost are replaced by BETTER players (e.g. DG replacing DR, interior OLine, etc.)...we should be undefeated before we face Ohio twice...I predict a split there...and then a tough bowl game where we win it
Hater.
The media has been trying to prop up Sparty for years, as though they desperately want to see a perennial underdog become a force in college athletics. They have turned Tom Izzo into a coaching god in the eyes of the public because he took advantage of the ten year pit that Ed Martin and Chris Webber dug for Michigan basketball.
Now, they have talked themselves and the public into overrating Mark Dantonio and the MSU football team, too. The pattern is the same in both cases: Michigan self-destructs for a few years, Sparty is able to temporarily escape from Michigan's shadow, and all of a sudden, Sparty has odorless feces in the eyes of the media.
The media is only delaying the inevitable: regression toward the mean. That means no more Final Fours for Sparty basketball, and 7-5 records for Sparty football, with a win in their "Super Bowl" against Michigan once every three or four years.
I don't see Clark moving to SDE. Even though he has bulked-up, he was supposedly killing it at WDE in the spring, and actually giving Lewan a challenge.
While I think Taco will play some this year, I don't think he's good enough to push Clark over to SDE, esp. when we have some good options with Heitzman, Strobel, and Godin.
I see a lot of salty responses.
I'm a Michigan State fan. Let me offer my knowledge of Michigan State's offensive situation as many Michigan fans on here have mentioned their belief that MSU's offense will be even worse than it was last year [as impossible as that sounds].
*Disclaimer: If you don't pass the Michigan homer test, this is not meant for you.
Michigan homer test -- Did you ever have in your possession at least one of the following two items: A D-Rob 4 Heisman shirt; a Tate 4 Heisman shirt. If yes, you FAIL.
Great. Now that we've weeded out the nutcase-crew, hopefully we can make this as objective and fact-friendly as possible.
As we all know, Michigan State's offense in '12-'13 was bad. It wasn't as unproductive in terms of raw yardage as most people seemed to believe; however, the offense was horrible on third downs, could not put the ball in the end-zone, and was highly inefficient. The lone ray of sunshine on Michigan State's offense was RB Le'Veon Bell who entered the 2013 NFL Draft. Dion Sims showed his potential as a star TE on very rare occasions, but was plagued by injuries and opted for the 2013 NFL Draft as well.
So, what was Michigan State's problem in 2012? Much maligned QB Andrew Maxwell, a Redshirt Junior, shouldered much of the blame for the offense's incompetence. And upon glancing at his statistics, you can see exactly why. Maxwell completed just 52% of his passes, threw nearly as many Interceptions as he did Touchdowns, and had a dismal QB Rating of 107.
Maxwell's wideouts also received a lot of negative attention as the crew had more drops in the Spartans' first four games than any other crew in the Big Ten had throughout the entire season. This was somewhat of a surprise considering the amount alleged talent that Spartan bloggers and fanboys believed Michigan State to have. Redshirt Junior Bennie Fowler, Freshman phenom Aaron Burbridge, and highly touted Tennessee transfer DeAnthony Arnett headlined a crew of talented Spartan wideouts; however -- aside from Burbridge's breakout game against Indiana -- the unit was highly disappointing as nobody stood out as a legitimate offensive threat.
Now, while I will readily admit that Maxwell and his wideouts have a LOT of improving to do before they can even be considered "average," the biggest problem in 2013, and the most important issue going forward, was the health of Michigan State's offensive line.
Last year, Skyler Burkland, Blake Treadwell, Dan France, Chris McDonald, and Fou Fonoti were the projected starters on the offensive line, with Travis Jackson, Jack Allen, Ethan Ruhland, and Connor Kruse filling in the second string. Fonoti and Jackson endured season-ending injuries; Treadwell and Burkland missed large chunks of the season with serious injuries; France missed two games with an injury; Ruhland missed three games with an injury. The projected starting five did not play a single game together the entire season. In fact, Michigan State was often dipping into walk-on freshmen talent off the bench (Adam Brown) due to the extensive injuries.
Now, the injuries to the offensive line had an impact that is sort of hard to quantify, but I'll try to do it justice. Maxwell was the second most sacked pocket-passing QB in the Big Ten behind James Vandenberg last year. Furthermore, Le'Veon Bell -- the second best draft eligible back in the nation per NFL scouts, and the nation's second leading rusher in 2012 -- had a brutally bad yard per carry average that ranked among the lowest in the nation for starters. To add to that fact, Le'Veon Bell led the nation in yards after contact. Put two and two together, and it's pretty obvious that Le'Veon Bell was consistently hit in the backfield but bulldozed his way to a net four yard gain regardless. In conclusion, Michigan State's offensive line was absolutely horrid due to injuries to multiple key players.
So, was Maxwell & Co. really as bad as most pundits believed? I think the obvious answer is, no. While they didn't do anything to help Michigan State's offense climb out of the hole they were in, the offensive line's incompetence due to injuries was the reason they were in the hole in the first place.
How could Michigan State's offense possibly be better despite the losses of Le'Veon Bell and Dion Sims, who combined for fifty-three percent of the offense's total yards last year, you might ask. Well, I'd gladly like to point you to an extremely similar [and even more daunting] situation: In the 2009 football season, Michigan State was going to have to replace Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer, players responsible for ninety-seven percent of the offense's total yards the previous year. Most MSU critics said that Michigan State's offense was doomed; that the Spartans would have one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.
Well, fast-forward to 2009 and, with the collaborative efforts of Freshman Larry Caper, Freshman Edwin Baker, Sophomore Glenn Winston, and Freshman Caulton Ray, none of whom rushed for over five-hundred yards individually, Michigan State improved their rushing-yard total from 1,692 yards in '08 to 1,770 yards in '09. But it doesn't stop there. Sophomore Kirk Cousins stepped in and improved Michigan State's passing mark to 3,502 yards, a huge improvement over Hoyer's 2,404 yards.
So, what gives? How did Michigan State's offense become that much better in 2009 after losing their only two good offensive players in 2008? The answer: Michigan State's offensive line in 2009 was both healthier and a year more developed than they were in 2008.
MSU's OL starters in 2008: C Joel Nitchman (JR); RT Jesse Miller (SR); RG Roland Martin (SR); LG Joel Foreman (FR); LT Rocco Cironi (JR)
MSU's OL starters in 2009: C Joel Nitchman (SR); RT D.J. Young (JR); RG Brendon Moss (SR); LG Joel Foreman (SO); LT Rocco Cironi (SR) -- Breakdown, three seniors, a junior, and a sophomore.
Now here's MSU's projected OL starters in 2013: C Travis Jackson (JR), returning starter before being injured; RT Fou Fonoti (SR), returning starter before being injured; RG Blake Treadwell (SR), returning starter before being injured; LT Dan France (SR), returning starter; LG Jack Allen (SO) started in place of injured Travis Jackson -- Breakdown, three seniors, a junior, and a sophomore.
I think that's all you need to know to understand that Michigan State's offense is plenty capable of taking a gigantic leap forward despite last year's lack of success. Not only are they capable of doing so, but they've done so under nearly identical circumstances in the recent past. Give the quarterbacks a year of working with the young wideouts and ask each running-back to contribute a little bit, and MSU should be perfectly fine.
So there you have it. You're welcome.
Disclaimer: Your disclaimer makes you sound like an insecure asshole, but I went ahead and read the rest of your post anyway.
It sounds wonderfully upbeat and optimistic; your analysis is what most every fan hopes for in his team for the following season.
I, too, think State's offense will be better than last year's, but only slightly (I know, damning with faint praise). However, there are a few points I would dispute. First, Andrew Maxwell is no Kirk Cousins. He may be more physically gifted than Cousins, but in no way does he have the field presence or the leadership skills of Cousins. Second, your offensive line may have experience, but they've also battled injuries. How certain are you that they have recovered to where they can give peak performances? What happens if one or more goes out with an injury? How well will they perform together as a unit? Third, I thought your RB situation was so dire that a converted LB was your best bet for the position.
While I think the offense will be slightly better than last year, the defense may be slightly worse. You should still be strong at LB and defensive backfield, but the DL was not a stout last year as the year before, and will not be quite as good this year as last year. So I see it pretty much as a wash in terms of capabilities. That still may very well work out to a couple more wins than last year, but that's as much to do with a weak schedule as anything else.
Definitely came off as douchey... lol. Sorry. It's all in fun.
Anyway, I didn't mean to imply that Michigan Statee's offense will be "good" by the definition that most people would go by. What I meant to do was form an argument as to why they won't be as bad as they were last year -- which was pretty horrible -- and why they won't be terrible. You seem to agree with that, at least to a certain extent.
As for the rest of your comment, I totally agree. Maxwell is nowhere near the player Cousins was/is, mostly for intangible reasons... intangible reasons that make all the difference. Now, I don't think Maxwell will be a good quarterback, and he certainly won't be the reason why Michigan State does well this year (assuming they win eight or more games). My hope is that he's serviceable, doesn't make mistakes at crucial points of the game, and can keep the offense moving down the field at a decent rate (the third down and red-zone conversion percentages have to improve).
The running-back issue also looks a bit rough, but Michigan State doesn't need any one player who is a threat out of the backfield. The unit will be greater than the sum of its parts. Nobody needs to be a five-hundred+ yard rusher. We just need a stable of guys who can collaborate to average between four and five yards per carry. In 2009, Michigan State utilized five running-backs, three of whom were freshmen and two of whom were sophomores. Riley Bullough may be the projected starter at this point, and he IS a converted linebacker... but he won't likely see a majority of the team's carries. They'll be split between a group of guys who provide a multitude of talents -- Nick Tompkins (RS FR) clocked a 4.28-second forty yard dash at a combine in high school; Bullough is a 240 pound bruiser; Jeremy Langford will have a great combination of speed and hands out of the backfield as he's spent time at CB and WR in the past.
I also fully agree with the notion that the defensive line will regress, but not the defense as a whole. The defense's regression will be most evident agains the run, where they'll probably finish just outside the top-ten statistically next year. Gholston was a huge body at SDE that clogged up holes. We also lose a situational starter on the DL in three-hundred and forty pound anchor Anthony Rashad White. Those players' replacements, however, appear to be better at rushing the pass than their predecessors (Shilique Calhoun is smaller and much faster than Gholston; Micajah Reynolds is not a whole lot smaller but much faster than Rashad White).
I'm not worried about losing Johnny Adams. He was great against the run, but he made crucial mistakes that cost Michigan State a few games last year. Michigan State has a ton of talent in the secondary on the second string; it's easily Michigan State's deepest unit. Nobody has won the starting position just yet, but whoever wins it will have beaten out a handful of other players who were highly touted coming out of high school and had game experience last season.
Maybe so, but they also regressed from 9-4 to 6-7 in 2009. I'll begrudgingly accept that kind of offensive improvement from Sparty this year.
They went from 9-4 to 6-7 because they played a much more difficult schedule and had a huge regression on the defensive side of the ball, not because they regressed offensively.
This year's team will have the benefit of having one of the nation's top defenses as well as an ultra-weak schedule. The same kind of progression offensively would likely lead to a double-digit win season (although I don't think they'll progress on offense enough to actually achieve that mark).
Denard was on the Heisman watch list before the season started. I don't think wearing a shirt stating the truth constitutes being a homer.