At #10, should we be happy we're not probably too significantly overrated, or frustrated that from #10, even if we did run the table, it would still be a bit of an uphill slog to make it to the MNC game?
2012 Michigan Football preview today on ESPN College Football Live
do you really think there's any way a 12-0 Michigan team would be left out?
Not worried. If we beat Bama in game 1, we will move in to the top 5.
Totally agree. IF we beat Bama, Michigan will be the team to beat
In my rush to post during a break at work, I forgot to turn my brain back on.
I hate to think it, but even if we beat bama and go undefeated, if LSU beats bama and run the table they will be ahead of us, and if USC runs the table they will be ahead of us, mostly because of the name recognition of barkley and the fact he could go first next year.
As unlikely as all of that is, I doubt we'd be behind USC if both teams run the table. Our schedule would be much harder than their's, so the computers would like us more. The rest of the Pac-12 will be pretty weak, so USC won't have much of a chance for quality wins, plus we play ND away and SC plays them at home. I think we'd be OK.
I feel like beating the defending national champions who will also be consensus top five in the first game of the season miiiiiiight propel a championship campaign a bit. Not that we're going to do that or anything.
including a win in week 1 over Alabama, it would not be an uphill slog to make the NC game.
Edit: Man, am I slow. I blame it on my computer.
Very big IF. MNC are not crowned in September even if we did manage to win the first game, there is a ton of the season left.
I don't think anyone is saying they expect the team to run the table...just that if that somehow happens, there is zero chance the team would be left out of the MNC game
Becuase the BCS "championship" is a beauty contest, and not a true championship, a championship can be lost in September by losing one game. When all major conference champions are invited in, regardless of ther non-conference record, it will encourage teams to schedule more games like Michigan/Alabama.
When one reads between the lines of what is going on in Tallahassee, it becomes pretty clear that the Big 12 is aggressive about expansion. The original thought of four superconferences, with the ACC and Big East getting left out, when combined with Jim Delany's support of a four-team playoff, and obvious Big 12 discussions about pulling FSU and a "partner" from the ACC, definitely advance the case for a division of four large conferences in the future.
I know it's more relevant to a previous thread, but this one is happening now. Here is a link to a press release from FSU's president, Eric Barron.
I find it interesting that Barron used to work at a little school in Austin. The last line of his release:
" I assure you that every aspect of conference affiliation will be looked at by this institution, but it must be a reasoned decision."
A couple of days ago, they denied everything.
If we start out the season beating the defending national champions at a neutral site, and proceed to win out our very difficult road schedule, and beating Wisconsin (I'd assume) in the Big Ten Championship Game. If we did not make it to the national championship game it would be an absolute outrage.
There has been one year in recent history where quality, big-conference team ran the table and didn't get a look: Auburn in 2004. A B1G team that wins everything is almost a mortal lock for a title game appearance. Remember, Bama got in last year because Oklahoma State spit the bit against Iowa State--otherwise the Cowboys were in.
Even of Michigan's schedule was Charmin-soft this year an undefeated season pretty much puts them in. And of they don't win them all, what's the difference? Most of the panicked poll-watching that goes on during the season is useless, because the envisioned doomsday scenarios never occur. The "slighted" teams always wind up with big, avoidable blotches on their resume, complaining about the other guy's unfortunate blotches.
4, potentially 5 losses are certainly possible this season, so even though we may be the 10th best team, our schedule makes is highly unlikely we remain there at season’s end.
Alabama – 75% likely loss
Ohio’s national championship game in November at the Shoe – 55%
MSU returning D and most O line – 50%
Nebraska @ Lincoln – 50%
ND @ South Bend – 50%
Random unexpected loss to one of several moderate teams – Iowa, NW, etc. – 25%
A magnitude leap by Denard’s arm, BWC’s technique and receiving corp’s separation will be required for us to repeat last year’s record given how much more difficult the schedule is this year.
Just what I've been thinking. Plus there is the fact that last season was charmed in terms of everything from avoiding major injuries to an amazing fumble recovery ratio (which Brian says will likely revert to the mean).
No way they run the table this year. If they match last year's record, given the schedule, that would be a phenomenal achievement.
But if we're the best team in the nation, it doesn't matter who we play. We just win every week and get the job done
"which Brian says will likely revert to the mean"
I'm pretty sure Brian's been wrong about TOs going into each season the past few years. His repeated assertions that TOs are random and will regress to the mean every season has been a pet peeve of mine. Yes, when you're talking about a middle of the pack team in terms of TOs, then they're probably mostly random. But Michigan was unrelentingly bad in terms of TOs during the RR years and seemed to improve dramatically on D thanks primarily to players being in the right place at the right time (due, in my opinion, to proper coaching and them actually understanding where they're supposed to be, not random chance that there happened to be multiple players near the ball when it came out).
Phew, my rant about a barely even tangential topic is now over. Thank you for listening.
To be fair to the guy you replied to, he didn't say TOs would revert to the mean, he said fumble recovery rates. I think that everyone can agree that there many part of TO margint that aren't random(QB/RB experience, having guys within 1 mile of ball carriers, etc.), but one part that pretty much is consistently random is the rate at which you recover fumbles(which we had an absurdly, unsustainably high % last year).
Debbie, no shit, it could be a let down season for all the reasons you mention. We all know this stuff. Have some balls and mention the positives and potential. Senior QB, great defense, running game??? All teams have issues and ours are fewer than most of our opponents.
Great defense...eh. Statistically we were really good, maybe even great, but that was against a weak schedule and we lost several players critical to our success. It is too early to say we will have a great defense this year without knowing how we will we replace Martin and RVB. Our defensive line could be good as we have some great minds (Mattison etc.) scheming and teaching the kids, but we probably should expect the Dline to perform at a slightly reduced level from last year. Our growths at LB and the secondary might offset this, but that does not account for the much more difficult schedule we face this year. We have a lot to look forward to, but you have to be realistic in expecting this season is going to be that much tougher due to the schedule.
Every team you have us as dogs against I have us as favorites, save for Alabama. We shellacked Nebraska last yr, Ohio is in a new offensive system, Sparty just lost their best qb in prob at least a decade, and ND has a horrible qb and wr situation. Let's not forget we are very popular picks to win the B1G. If our dline is simply not horrible we factor to have at least a top 3 defense in the league given likely progression in the 2ndary and at LB...
Edit: dogs or 50% shot to win... I have as >50% shot for Michigan to win...
The only time an undefeated BCS-conference team has been left out of the MNC game is Auburn in 2004. In nine out of the 15 BCS years so far, at least one 1-loss team has made the game. Since Michigan's last championship in 1997, the average preseason ranking of the eventual BCS champion has been 7.7.
I'd worry about winning our games first, and let the BCS selection process take care of itself.
1997 pre-season rank #14. Did you think we'd run the table that year? I know I didn't.
Never, EVER doubt Charles Woodson.
Or Denard Robinson.
...opposite that Woodson guy, was a squad with 9 or 10 out of 11 starters future NFL regulars, not just roster spot holders. Can you say the same about our defense this year, opposite Shoelace? As much as I'd love to see it happen, I don't think so.
Most likely not. But am I going to completely rule it out like yourself? Nope
No one has said, "Because 1997 happened, we'll run the table this year." But you seem to be writing the season off already, and there's a huge difference between "we won't beat Bama" and "we could beat Bama." The reason people are bringing up 1997 is because we weren't picked to do that well, but we did. This season, we're actually picked (by most) to do better than we were picked to do before that season started. So that doesn't mean that we'll win a national championship this year, but it just shows that you don't have to be preseason top-5 to be a national championship team.
In 1997, we were #17 in the preseason coaches' poll, and we played #7 Colorado in our first game. This is not terribly different than what we have going on now, except that Colorado was at home. We ended up kicking the shit out of them, and beating three more top-10 teams that year.
Point is, don't write anything off. You can say that you don't think we'll beat Bama, or that you don't like our chances, but don't say we won't or we can't. Because we might.
Nobody "in their right mind" was predicting 11-2 with a BCS bowl win last year.
Yeah... 3-4 years away of becoming the next "pre-sanctioned" USC in that we make it to the NC game every other year. HECK YES.
Is it likely we run the table? No
BUTTTT considering how much progress the team made in year one, I wouldn't rule it out completely.
Does anyone have a live stream of the broadcast?
google it and click on the ESPN link.
the team's record would be 13-0 (Big Ten campionship game).
With all of the conferences having championship games, what are the chances 2 other teams (from major conferences, anyway) would be undefeated? Just about zero, I would think.
Not that we have to worry about it or anything, but if Michigan runs the table, they are in the championship game.
Not much substance. Desmond says replacing our DL will be key. Most of the panel focused on Denard's INTs and low completion rate with no Hemingway to bail him out next year. Next to nothing on our rushing attack. Jesse Palmer says we are already 0-1 today with the Alabama game scheduled. Robert Smith is a douche.
With the O-line we are returning and another year of maturation, Fitz will be a huge asset this fall
he stated that ESPN said nothing about our rushing attack.
before the comma, I thought it was another "m" word with the same number of syllables. I also thought, If one more year of that helps running back performance, then I should have won a Heisman by now.
What do you have against The Cure?
Sad Robert Smith is sad.
Good so I didn't miss anything.
That comment combined with your sig is confusing.
Here's an interesting question.
We lose to Alabama and then win out. We'd be in the discussion IMO at least.
We beat Bama and lose a game to a decent team that isn't exactly like Iowa Stateast year and is more towards the middle of the schedule. I also think we'd be high in the pecking order.
The nice thing about having a hard schedule is you can lose a game and still have a decent chance at making the MNC depending on the scenario.
Given all that, let's just take one game at a time and weather the Tide.
I'm not so sure we would have a chance. Losing to an SEC team non-confrence seems fatal. Everyone already wants to crown the SEC teams, and this seems like it would add fuel to the fire. I hear your point about losing early, but it's a damn big 8-ball we would find ourselves behind.
Not really. If we win out that means we won our division and won the B1G in the conference championship game. I say that puts us in contention.
Hopefully true, I'm just saying it fits into the "B1G sucks, SEC is great, rah rah rah" narrative that is so common these days.
It would also depend on how Bama's season goes. If they lose one SEC game and lose the SEC championship game I would think we have a shot.
It also will depend on point differential. If we get creamed and win-out in the B1G, it will just make the B1G look weaker and not help our chances at all. If it's close, 1 close loss against Alabama could result in NC Rematch #2. Great way to kick off the playoffs next year.
Side Note: I have a feeling the way everything went down last year would make everyone NOT want to see an Alabama/Michigan rematch, and if Alabama won game 1 and lost an SEC game, Alabama would surely go ahead of Michigan.
Conclusion... Probably need to win that first game.
let Alabama into a rematch in 2011, then kept Michigan out of yet another rematch in 2012... The word "flabbergasted" was created for just such scenarios.
Beat Ohio, but first Beat Bama.
Sparty tears would be quite sweet this year particularly.
I ESPN did a good overall job breaking us down initially, except the fact that we have a legitimate shot to beat Bama and potentially run the table. Its ridiculously optimistic, but quite possible. We will know very quickly by how our lines hold up against the Tide and how Denard can pass against an agressive defense with ESS EEE SEE speed.
The fist pound between Howard and Herbie....meh.
#10 sounds about right, if a little high given what's coming back. Bama will be a wake-up call methinks, but there are winnable games the rest of the way. I still think 9 wins, but considering the schedule plus a bowl game you never know.
This has to be the toughest schedule in a long time with all the road games against top competition. With the changes on D and the lower quality RR recruits that are now upperclassmen, even 3 losses would be a big success. If Hoke and Co. does better than that you could only credit them with an amazing job of coaching.
It will be interesting to see how Michigan coaches do vs. Bama given the HUGE differences in the '09/'10/'11 recruiting classes. Then I'd like to see a rematch in '14.
maybe those "lower quality RR recruits" aren't as lower quality as we'd like to think they are. If they are able to be coached to greatness, obviously that greatness was in them somewhere.
It stunk that RR couldn't coach them to perform. Go blue!
Considering some of the success freshmen have had on defense as of late, is it wishful thinking to expect Pipkins to have a noticeable impact on the DL in 2012?
the Alabama game, yes
(not that you're saying that)
Here is the link to the video:
Aside from Palmer I thought the discussion was much better than what's typically seen on ESPN.
anyone have a HD version of it on youtube?
I hope Palmer chokes on his own shit... I mean words.