2012 B1G Ten Championship Game Preview
Congrats on your Sugar Bowl win. 11-2 with a BCS win is a great season anyway your slice it. Not sure if anyone else feels like me, but this time of year is such a bummer. I am already chomping at the bit for next season. I have instantly started combing over the depth charts for all the B1G Ten teams and it seems highly probable that the B1G Ten Championship game will be played on Oct. 20, 2012 in Ann Arbor.
With OSU ineligible, PSU in shambles and Wiscy losing a truckload of player and coaching talent, I feel that whoever comes out of the Legends division will be the favorite to go to win the BTCG.
In looking at the Legends, I think it is a two horse race. Nebraska fans may disagree, but they lose their top 3 defensive players (Crick, Dennard & David) off a defense that did not have a very good season.
I noticed a thread playing the schedule game. It's a fun game to play and I noticed almost everyone has MSU game chalked up as a "W". That's fine, but the original poster's rationale was something along the lines of "MSU loses almost their entire defense". I would expect UM fans to pick their own team, but lets at least get the correct information out there. Here is your way too early sneak peak at the 2012 defense of your top "Legends Division" rival.
DEFENSE:
Assuming Worthy leaves, MSU will still be returning 9 of 11 starters from its Outback Bowl defense. I give you their 2012 status and returning starter in bold.
DE: Gholston (Junior) - potential to be preseason all big ten.
DT: Anthony Rashid-White (Senior) - played the best game of his career in Outback bowl with multiple TFL's and blocked FG to secure win.
DT: Hoover/Reynolds/Treadwell/Kittredge - This is our only question mark on the DLine. I'm not sure who will emerge.
DE: Rush (RS Soph) - Was on the All Big Ten Freshman team. Should continue his progression.
The front four was a strength of the team this year and I expect it will be next year even without Worthy. DTackle is a question mark though. I think the DTackle spot will be solid, but not as explosive with the loss of Worthy. DE should be improved with both starting returning.
OLB: Denicos Allen (RS Junior)
MLB: Max Bullough (Junior)
OLB: Chris Norman (Senior)
We return our entire LB core and I think it is the best in the B1G Ten. Max is solid as nails in the middle. Allen is a great blitzer who had double digit sacks this year. Norman is a great athlete and the unheralded key to our defense. Under Narduzzi's scheme, we don't substitute to the nickel package against spread teams. Norman is the guy that gets the difficult task of being a LB covering a WR in space.
CB: Johnny Adams (RS Senior)/Lippett (RS Soph)
CB: Darqueze Dennard (Junior)
SS: Isaiah Lewis (Junior)
FS: Drummond/Jones
There is chatter of Adams testing the NFL waters. He doesn't project as an early round pick, but crazier things have happened (DWarren comes to mind). That said, I project him as returning and him and Dennard form a pretty good CB combo that really allows Narduzzi to dial up the blitzes. Dennard had a real nice year culminated with 2 INTs in the Outback bowl. Lewis is a really hard hitting strong safety that had multiple pick 6's this year (one to secure win over UM). We lose Trenton Robinson at FS. Both Drummond and Jones have playing experience and are probably more physically gifted than the 2 star TRob. However, it is difficult to replace the playing experience of a 3 year starter.
In summary, I expect the MSU defense to be very good next year. We return a TON of players and we were able to redshirt almost our entire recruiting class including 5 star Lawrence Thomas from Detroit.
If there is interest, I will post an offensive preview sometime in the future.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:14 AM ^
expects Sparty to have an elite defense next year - just not faith in its offense w/o Cousins.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:16 AM ^
Or Cunningham.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:44 AM ^
That guy is seriously fast and made clutch plays.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:44 AM ^
or martin or nichol, ie almost all of their receiving yards.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:35 AM ^
And also the TE, Linthicum.
MSU will have an entirely new passing game next year. It will probably take some time for it to get up to speed.
January 5th, 2012 at 12:02 PM ^
Michigan and State both have to replace the centerpiece of their defenses in Martin and Worthy. Both should be "okay," but neither guy will be able to replaced.
January 5th, 2012 at 6:19 PM ^
with rush and gholston coming back, msu doesn't have too many worries along the d-line. we, on the other hand, do.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:17 AM ^
Having a good D is only part of the game. I think the QB part is going to hurt you more than you guys are saying in public. You can have Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton in your backfield but if your QB can't make enough plays then its going to be a long season.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:29 AM ^
There is no question that the largest question marks heading into 2012 will be replacing Cousins and our WRs.
ANDREW MAXWELL - Barring an injury or something shocking, Maxwell will be our starting QB. He was a highly regarded recruit (Elite 11 QB finalist) and will be a redshirt junior with 4 years in the system come fall. With change, comes uncertainty. However, many believe Maxwell is more talented than Cousins and like any fanbase, there was a small percentage of whackos that were clammoring for Maxwell to start over Cousins this year. No matter how talented and "practiced up" you cannot replace game experience. Therfore, I expect there to be a learning curve with Maxwell and he will make bonehead mistakes that you expect from a first time starting QB. With that said, we aren't trotting out some true freshman and he doesn't have to carry the team, just play smart football and ease into the position.
At WR's, we lose everyone. No way to sugarcoat it. We need 3 players to step up. Likely candidates are Arnett (assuming he recieves NCAA waiver), Burbridge (true freshman stud recruit), Bennie Fowler (had promising RS Frosh year in 2010 but was plagued by foot injury in 2011) and Tony Lippett. There are others, but these are the most likely. I personally feel that WRs and RBs are the easiest postions to replace. It's still hard, but I think young WRs and RBs can make an impact easier than say a young OLineman.
The Oline was a huge concern in 2011. They were awful in the non-conference, but turned into a competent Oline by the end of the year. We return 4 0f 5 starters and expect them to move from competent to good next year. We return all of our RBs.
Offense is a question mark, but I don't think it is crazy to think we can still be in the top half of B1G Ten offenses next year.
January 5th, 2012 at 1:11 PM ^
raved during the previous offseason about the running backs--in particular, Baker. Baker, himself, put out some ridiculous goal of approx. 2000 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns, I think. All that hoopla, from fans and players, was based on him being the top RB for your team in 2010.
I'm pretty sure he didn't come close to that production this year. I'm also pretty sure your running game ranked near the bottom of the conference in terms yards/game. I'll give you that Bell had a strong year in 2011, but your offense loses quite a bit. I suspect teams will play more to stop the run since the pass will be weaker than this year. Therefore, while I'm sure your o-line and RB will improve as a unit, that doesn't mean your production against teams next year necessarily will.
I,like others here, am also impressed by the Spartan D though, and that is a good foundation to have. The division does seem to be between MSU and Michigan with Nebraska as a bit a of sleeper (I expect it will want to respond at home in 2011 to the beating it took by Michigan on the road in 2010).
January 5th, 2012 at 10:18 AM ^
I agree your defense does look very solid next year. I think you are losing much more on offense with Cousins, Cunningham, Martin, Nichols and Linthicum (not sure who else, if any).
January 5th, 2012 at 10:36 AM ^
They lose Foreman, who was to their line what Molk was to ours.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:18 AM ^
I didn't doubt that MSU's defense would be pretty good next year, it's the offense that I really think will struggle. New QB, and even though he's been there for a few years, he doesn't have the starting experience that Cousins has. He also has an entirely new group of WRs considering all of your starting WRs graduate. MSU will have to rely on their running game, which wasn't great this season due to issues on the O-line, and their defense. Not a bad way to win games, heck OSU has done that for years, but it could lead to some losses if MSU falls behind because it will be hard to catch up.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:19 AM ^
Regardless of who is coming back, the W will go to Michigan. No way in hell Michigan loses again to Sparty. Your defense does look stout, but i like team 133 better.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:20 AM ^
for my liking...rational or not.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:22 AM ^
An MSU perspective on their O would be appreciated. I do agree the Legends division rep will probably win the Big 10 next year.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^
sounds good to me.
Interesting take and I agree mostly.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^
You are not going to like me next week (see below). You have been warned.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^
The defense should be about the same as it was this year. And you mighy be losing Narduzi(sp?).
January 5th, 2012 at 10:34 AM ^
I don't think he leaves. Are there any HC openings besides Penn State (which he is not a candidate)?
He was under consideration for some head coaching jobs, but didn't get them. I don't think he would leave to be a coordinator somewhere else.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:49 AM ^
Speaking of which, why is PSU not looking at him? Seems like a better choice than some of the other guys they've been after.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:05 AM ^
I think Tomlin specifically. I could be wrong on that though.
January 5th, 2012 at 1:39 PM ^
For that. Misheard the tv, I guess.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:53 AM ^
New tweets are coming out that Narduzzi is gone to TAMU for up to 750k a year.
January 5th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
Some buzz about Texas A&M.
January 5th, 2012 at 12:05 PM ^
Does Mylan Hicks have a chance to start at safety next year?
January 5th, 2012 at 12:17 PM ^
Yes, I am just hearing these Narduzzi things. Hope he stays obviously. Hope we pay him.
As for Hicks, he will be in the mix for the vacant FS job, but I think he is behind the other two guys. It will one of the few defensive jobs up for competition in the spring
January 5th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
Ok. Even though I don't like MSU, I hope the Detroit Renaissance guys are successful (Hicks, Thomas, and Norman).
January 5th, 2012 at 10:24 AM ^
Thanks...as always, I appreciate fans from other schools offering insight on this board.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:26 AM ^
I'm not sure who's been selling the MSU D as the weak link, but I wouldn't be buying that either.
I would more point out the fact that MSU is losing their QB, top 2 receivers, and the rushing game wasn't that good against teams not named Michigan (still don't know what happened there...).
It will be nice to have you losing your DT the same time we're losing our C, though. I think Lewan fucks Ghoston up this year. He'll be ready for that crap after Ghoston tried to break his arm off last fall.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:35 AM ^
Thanks for that analysis. Good to have the perspective of a reasonable Spartan around here.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:50 AM ^
The strength of the Spartan team next season will be defense, but this is still a defense that gave up big points to Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia. MSU deployed a pretty potent offense this season and without that balance next season, you could expect the defense to be on the field for longer periods of time than this year.
MSU will be a solid team next season, but I think you have to expect them to take a step back and I definately like Michigan, at home. These guys are going to be motivated given all the bad blood from this season's game with all the cheap shots and whatnot. Dantonio's win streak is going to hold at 4.
January 5th, 2012 at 10:53 AM ^
It will hinge around Andrew Maxwell on offense. He was a higher rated prospect than Cousins and will be a junior (?) next year.
Looking at your schedule from a conference only perspective -
Ohio State
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ Michigan
@ Wisconsin
Nebraska
Bye Week
Northwestern
@ Minnesota
That's a pretty meaty schedule for the first 5/6 games.
Consider Michigan's schedule by comparison -
@ Purdue
Illinois
Michigan State
@ Nebraska
@ Minnesota
Northwestern
Iowa
@ Ohio State
I like Michigan in all those games. Nebraska and Ohio State being the tough road games, you guys being our most diffcult home game. I think Nebraska will play a spoiler for either us or you. They also might have the ponies to run the schedule and represent the Legends. We have questions on offense to answer and so does MSU. I would disagree that this will only be a two horse race.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:05 AM ^
with your disagreement. I don't see Nebraska contending with Martinez at QB. He is not good at the throwing.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:45 AM ^
Throwing? He is practicing the shot put! Mark my words: Taylor Martinez will be the 2012 B16 shot put champion.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^
but the biggest factor may actually be how well the MSU's defensive players' paroll officers can keep the starters out of jail. Oh ... and just FYI "Tom" Gholston had better be well prepared for October 20, 2012 and I wouldn't plan on him being 100% for the Wisconsin game the following week.
Go Blue!
January 5th, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^
I always like your Sparty perspective.
I think that your D is going to be awesome next year. I am actually scared of it, as you guys have had our number for several years, and Denard really does struggle against teams that can bring a ton of pressure at the LOS.
Your offense, though, should take a huge step back.
To me, this game is a total crap shoot, and it will turn on whether (1) Denard can figure out a way to move the ball on your D line without turning it over, and (2) whether your first year starter does what most first year starters do and turns it over a lot himself.
January 5th, 2012 at 11:23 AM ^
lol at anyone who even thinks MSU loses all their D. Thats ridiculous
They are locked and loaded on that side of the ball. I'd still trade D rosters with them
I agree with the OP. The Big 10 title swings on the Paul Bunyan game. And its a toss up. The only edge MICH has is home field
January 5th, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
I agree that the defense should be good, but that offense is going to be rough with Maxwell finally getting some time and the WRs being virtually all brand new. I also think the RBs will be solid but won't put up as good numbers simply because the passing game will be worse, but that line still needs to improve quite a bit to keep everything working.
And while I know some of my MSU friends are high on the defensive line, losing Worthy would be a big loss (like losing Martin) and one that will likely affect the other players on the line as well. Gholston looks to be a good DE (though his brainfarts may cost him some playing time), but he isn't Worthy and teams won't have to gameplan for him as much as they did with Worthy in there. I expect the LBs to be better with experience but that line is going to be a little worse, and it will be interesting to see how that affects their plays.
Nice breakdown, though, and I do agree that the winner of the Legends division will have the inside track on the B1G title.
January 5th, 2012 at 1:04 PM ^
I thought there was consensus that he has a javelin thrower's motion.
Oops. meant to be a reply to Shotput champion.
January 5th, 2012 at 3:24 PM ^
That defense will be good enough to stuff most Big 10 offenses, but the offense won't be able to do much against teams with good defenses.
That means MSU should go something like 8-4 or 9-3 (given the general weakness of the Big 10). MSU 2012 seems like a marginally better version of Iowa or OSU 2011: not elite, but can still be a pain-in-the-ass, and particularly when playing at home.
We're playing in Ann Arbor this year. I expect us to win that game, but I don't expect it to come easy.