2011 Schedule: Potential Win-Loss Record & Impact on Coach
So when I was talking to one of the coaches at Notre Dame - Ohio, he mentioned the gripe that OSU fans have about Tressel. From their perspective, Tressel basically won with players who were already there when he came. Now, success begets success in recruiting, and Ohio State continue to cruise with one or two losses a year. The problem is, many OSU fans don't really think Tressel is ever going to win a national championship. But you don't cut loose a coach who is only losing a game a year. I think many of us would be thrilled to have Ohio State's problems. Whatever.
But our conversation got me to thinking about next year's Michigan schedule. As has been mentioned already, almost regardless of who coaches, Michigan could win its first 10 games next year. I wonder if some of the RR haters really are campaigning to get rid of Rodriguez now, knowing that it will be a lot harder with to fire him with a 10 - 2 record. It would be cruel and unfair not to let the coaches and team the chance to prove themselves next year.
Personally, I desperately hope that RR stays at Michigan. Yes, our defense needs serious work. But I truly believe that with the added experience, and the return of Woolfolk, and the incoming class, our defense will see massive improvement. While the defense won't be awesome, they will be more than good enough for us to compete in all our games. This would happen even if Gerg were to stay and wasn't the fall guy.
I badly want RR to be given the chance to run the table next year. Why? Not just because I think it would be fair. But I also think his players love him, and that with just a little luck, and getting through one more year, we will be competing at the highest level for years to come.
in contrast to Tressel, I believe that RR will truly be competitive in big bowl games. We just have to be patient. Now isn't the time to panic. RR came into a crummy situation, and should not be a sacrifice to the blood lust of the mindless hoards.
There are two analogies that come to mind. I'm thinking first, of Return of the Jedi, where Lando Calrissian says, "Don't worry, my friend's down there. He'll have that shield down in time." That's exactly what happens. If we're patient with RR, I fully believe we'll topple the empire in Columbus, and bring jubilation to Michigan fans for many years.
The bad analogy is to Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, when Robert Brewster activates Skynet, plunging the world into a nuclear wasteland. Pulling the plug on RR would do the same thing to Michigan. It has taken years to get to where we are now. To change course would cause havoc that could last for many, many years. I am trusting in DB to stay the course.
November 30th, 2010 at 3:50 PM ^
Issued pursuant to the "Neg All Coaching Change Discussions" (NACCD) Policy of 2010.
1 MGoPoint subtracted. No offense intended - it's a non-discretionary policy.
All rulings are appealable and will be revisited after written request "filed" by appellant within 24 hours of the date of this Violation and Citation.
November 30th, 2010 at 3:54 PM ^
Nonetheless, whoever is here next year, we have a favorable schedule.
November 30th, 2010 at 3:57 PM ^
Since this is your first offense, the Violation and Citation is hereby overturned on appeal. However,you will now be operating under a 6-month probationary period. Proceed with caution.
November 30th, 2010 at 5:21 PM ^
you are a nerd lol
November 30th, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^
He is a vigilante. He is noble, and proud, the wielder of self-vested authority (authooori-tie!). He has shown me how utterly stupid I am, and in doing so his own internet prowess has soared beyond his wildest dreams.
The blog is better off for your, sir. Go, and when you go, go knowing that you embody everything that I want to be and more. God bless you. Keep your head up, and do not deviate from your course. While you may be alone, I am certain that some will follow. Hold them dear. Hold them close. And please use your authority with care, and the exercise of due diligence
November 30th, 2010 at 3:51 PM ^
I like pie.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:24 PM ^
Sometimes I think pie gets too much credit. What's wrong with good old fashioned cake? You know - like the old days. Sure, pie looks nice and sounds real fancy, but cake is more robust and filling. You can also write things in frosting on top of cake , so it can be viewed as more versatile and not as predictable as pie. But, to each his own.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:40 PM ^
That crust would never work in the midwest winters. It's too frail!
November 30th, 2010 at 4:51 PM ^
pie is good. but not as good as cake
November 30th, 2010 at 5:10 PM ^
i like turtles
November 30th, 2010 at 6:05 PM ^
Nothing, and I mean nothing, beats a warm piece of pecan pie with a scoop of ice cream on top!
November 30th, 2010 at 7:47 PM ^
My boy loves him some pumpkin pie, but warm pecan pie with vanilla ice cream, that's some good stuff.
November 30th, 2010 at 8:52 PM ^
For me, it's all about turtles. (Where's turtle avatar guy when you need him?)
November 30th, 2010 at 3:53 PM ^
In the words of Nancy Kerrigan "Why!?"
November 30th, 2010 at 3:54 PM ^
guys.. we're gonna have 14 wins next year, relaaxx
nbd
November 30th, 2010 at 4:07 PM ^
seems like an extension of your statement.
November 30th, 2010 at 3:58 PM ^
The "Tressel struggles in bowl games" meme needs to go away. The guy is 5-4 overall and 4-3 in BCS bowls. Those three losses are to two national championship teams and a one loss Texas team that could very easily have ended up playing for a title as well. Just because he didn't win a national championship with Todd Boeckman as his starting quarterback doesn't mean the guy hasn't been really good in big games.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:42 PM ^
But does anyone else look at the word "meme" and want to throw up? I feel like it gets overused on forums...and its a weird looking word anyway, it looks fake. Has anyone actually used the word "meme" in everyday conversation? Does anyone know how to pronounce it properly? Maybe it's because of the duplicate "me"-s in the word....seems so selfish...
It's kind of like the word "aesthetic". I feel like its used so much that even when it's used properly (as you did), it still makes me cringe.
Anywho, random tangent. Carry on.
November 30th, 2010 at 6:31 PM ^
It's pronounced "meem"
November 30th, 2010 at 7:57 PM ^
I'm just passing on what several OSU fans in the Cleveland area were saying. Not a scientific study or poll or necessarily representative of the OSU fan base. Like I said in the OP, wouldn't those be nice problems to have?
However, I do think the perception is out there, fair or not, that Tressel isn't great against great competition. Getting stomped by Florida and LSU in the 2006 & 2007 BCS Championship Games hurt.
I'm kinda on the fence. He hasn't done bad, but not great either, imhe.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^
Moses coming down from the mountain with the 11th commandment ...
XI - Thou shall not fire thy Coach until the elapse of 5 plagues.
Now that I think about it .. glad I don't attend church in Ann Arbor.
Go Blue !
November 30th, 2010 at 7:59 PM ^
Actually, I thought we'd already suffered through a pretty bad plague in the defensive secondary!
November 30th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^
I've been trying to work a good Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines analogy into both my legal and MGoBlog writing, but haven't had much success. Now I see why.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:03 PM ^
I believe that RR will truly be competitive in big bowl games.
Other than hope, what evidence supports that contention?
November 30th, 2010 at 4:19 PM ^
Georgia thinks you don't have a very good memory.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:21 PM ^
Or Georgia Tech or Oklahoma (not coaching but his team).
November 30th, 2010 at 4:36 PM ^
Exactly. It's not like WVU is near most of the bowl games anyway; it's an analogous situation to the Big Ten. Given extra prep time and a healthy offense, I'd expect an explosive offense that could shock a lot of people in the bowl game.
The only problem is that GERG didn't do so well the last time he had extra prep time.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:04 PM ^
I'm pretty sure the whole schedule thing has been analyzed several times now.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:05 PM ^
Rich Rod's learning curve will determine how well UM does in 2011 IMO. Will he accept that Big Ten Football is different and he needs to change his Offensive Attack? Yes - his offensive attack. The Defense was bad - hard to argue, but they certainly didn't get a lot of help from the Offense running a no huddle that when it was on was scoring in 2 minutes and when it was off was punting after a minute came off the clock! For the life of me I can't figure out why a good old fashion huddle during a possesion is so bad. When up 14 - slow the pace down and give the D some time to breath, make a 3 first downs possesion eat 4-5 minutes off the clock a couple times a game. Give the D some help and they will help with some wins next year!
November 30th, 2010 at 4:08 PM ^
Please tell me you're joking.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:16 PM ^
This person did steal M-Wolverine's avatar, though.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:39 PM ^
Aargh. Time of possession is mostly meaningless until it gets to late in the 3rd quarter, at minimum, and usually much later. A fast-strike offense puts a defense off balance, and points per possession are far, far more important than limiting the total number of possessions in a game.
November 30th, 2010 at 7:56 PM ^
...part of the reason we won as convicingly as we did against UConn was that Michigan essentially controlled the ball for almost the entire third quarter. IF the other team doesn't get the ball back they can't score on you.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:44 PM ^
You are def kidding. Besides Bowling Green were we ever up by 14 points for a substantial amount of time this year?
November 30th, 2010 at 5:10 PM ^
Wait, do you honestly think the defense struggled because the offense didn't take enough time scoring? The opposing offense scored just about every time they had the ball, be it 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th quarter. I didn't see our defense "wear down", I just saw them suck.
No offense, but it wasn't the defense getting tired. It was the defense being bad to begin with.
I saw Carr's defenses wear down week in and week out, and then it was a factor. Under RR the defense has stunk, but its rarely exhausted.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:17 PM ^
"Michigan could win its first 10 games next year."
I mean, I guess in a literal sense it is technically possible Michigan starts off 10-0 next year. But that would require beating a NW team on the road that was better than us this year, beating MSU on the road after they crushed us @ home this year (i know they lose a lot this year), beating an illinois team on the road that took us to 30T this year and returns everyone, beating an Iowa team on the road that whooped us at home this year, all while not being upset by ND or Purdue.
So sure we could theoretically start out 10-0 since we don't play Neb or OSU until the last 2 games, but its about equally as likely that we start out 7-3 or 8-2.
And also, don't say he came into a crummy situation as if he walked into Bloomington trying to turn Indiana around. He came to a team that had Mallet, Arrington, Manningham, Minor, and a lot of returning starters on defense. It's his responsibility to get guys like Mallet and Arrington to stay around and to adapt his offense to the team he has. Instead he overhauled the entire offense and put a downhill back like Minor in a spread offense and had immobile quarterbacks run the read option. You can argue that this will help us in the future by giving extra spread experience to some of the younger players, but don't act like Rich Rod came into a situation where there was no talent and a history of losing. He made his own bed by turning it into a complete rebuilding process rather than slowly remodeling the offense and coaching to his team's talents.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:44 PM ^
We aren't starting 10-0 without a substantial leap in performance by both the offense and the defense. It's possible, but assuming it at this point is very premature.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:44 PM ^
Minor did not perform particularly well on the field until RR came along - he did not look like a future star to me. Are you saying that Minor would have somehow done better in a pro-style offense, or that he would have been injured less? Any discussion of squandering talent should not include Brandon Minor.
If RR had Mallett, I'm sure he would have thrown more in a passing spread than he did in 2008. You're bashing him for hypotheticals when most reports already had Mallett out of the door.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
I feel like expecting 10 wins next year, at this point, is already setting an expectation that could set whoever coaches up for failure if they fail to reach that many wins. And set us up for having this discussion next year regardless of next year's perceived (or actual) growth. Let's make it through the bowl game first and see what the recruiting class looks like.
But hey, I'd love to see 10 wins next year too.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
Ever think that you have a very real possibility to get 8 this year?
November 30th, 2010 at 4:38 PM ^
That's what we're all rooting for. I'm just hoping that we don't start debating a magic number of wins that the team has to meet next year OR ELSE, lest we turn into the Freep.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
For once I completely agree with Stephen R Kass. Great Post. Sincerely.
November 30th, 2010 at 6:02 PM ^
and miracles happen.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:28 PM ^
got a chance next year to win the first ever big ten title game,if we get a new coach that goes down the drain.As Michigan fans do we really want that?
November 30th, 2010 at 4:31 PM ^
It took RR 4 seasons at WVU to really get over the 8-4/8-5 hump -- then went 11-1, 11-2 and 10-1 in his final 3 seasons. In my opinion, completely too early to pull the plug.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:45 PM ^