2011 Football Season-Wins/Losses
|
Sat., Sep. 3 |
vs. Western Michigan |
Ann Arbor, Mich. |
TBA |
| Sat., Sep. 10 |
vs. Notre Dame  |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Sep. 17 |
vs. Eastern Michigan |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | TBA |
| Sat., Sep. 24 |
vs. San Diego State |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | TBA |
| Sat., Oct. 1 |
vs. Minnesota * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | TBA |
| Sat., Oct. 8 |
at Northwestern * |
Evanston, Ill. | TBA |
| Sat., Oct. 15 |
at Michigan State * |
East Lansing, Mich. | TBA |
| Sat., Oct. 29 |
vs. Purdue (Homecoming) * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 5 |
at Iowa * |
Iowa City, Iowa | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 12 |
at Illinois * |
Champaign, Ill. | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 19 |
vs. Nebraska * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 26 |
vs. Ohio State * |
Ann Arbor |
Notre Dame is at the Big House. Iowa has it's own set of problems and no real proven QB. NW? Even with DP back and at full strength they do not pose a threat. Minny? Illini? Sparty is really the only question mark in the first 10 games. We have a very viable chance at being 10-0 going into the Nebraska game. In addition, Neb and tOSU are both at home.
Maybe this is far too optimistic. Maybe not. Consider that we find our running game and have a middling defense. Consider Denard as being equal to last year or better. Also consider that we have potentially one of the best receiving corps in the country. Troy is full steam. JT. Carvin. By the NW game this is going to be a well-oiled machine.
Is this optimistic or realistic?
8-9 wins this season... I smell some rivalry games actually being close again!
Wins: Western, Eastern, Northwestern, Minnesota, SDSU, Purdue
Toss-ups: Notre Dame, Msu, Iowa, And Illinois
Losses: Nebraska, and OSU
So I guess we have a chance to go 10-0 assuming we win every toss-up and take care of business against the weaker opponents.
But if we start 10-0 Nebraska and OSU won't be expected losses anymore!!! This speculation is so confusing!
Edit: Why does our schedule always set us up for an amazing start, so we all get hyped up way too much. Then we get brought back down to earth once we get to the tougher stretch.
Yeah, but it's a rivalry game...at least it is to Illinois.
/s
They also lost their RB, did they not?
Anything less, with this (offensive) talent would be unacceptable.
So your saying theres a chance???
I'll say 8-4
Another New Year's Day Bowl. Hopefully a win there for 9-4
Couple of things to note............peeps are looking past Northwestern. Except in CFB, teams that start with 5 straight home games, tend to suck ass when they finally hit the road for the first time. That's a total trap game with MSU on deck. Not saying we lose to NW, but I am saying we drop a fourth in a row to Sparty. We'll stumble somewhere else. And, I by no means put any ND game in the victory column. In fact, after the last seasons, we might get some karma repaid to us in that series.
I'm thinking 8-2 after 10 games and I just have doubts we are ready to beat Brasker and/or OSU to close the year. But, we will be better, especially on D, so I would take 8-2 and our chances. At least there are at home.
MSU vs Wisco, btw, in the first Big 10 Championship Game. Book It
I too have been worried about the ND game. Karma and all that but also consider there is no countdown clock for ND which I consider on par with MSU. I believe Kelly will have his team up big time for this high profile game. I believe it will be a bloodbath of epic proportions. Aaaaaand we win!
I see a mean of 9-10 wins providing DR runs the ball on average 15 times a game and we take advantage of his stengths. Our defense is no longer half freshmen and retread journeymen. You will be shocked what you can do with half decent corners.
Lets look at tossup games. Illinois just lost a 1st or 2nd Round RB and their best defensive player. Iowa lost about everyone. NW has an extreme talent disadvantage. I think UM can win that shootout.
The games that concern me the most are ND, MSU, Neb, and OSU. 3 of 4 are home games. With the exception of OSU all of the teams have flaws that can be exploited. I watchd Neb against Wash in their bowl game and I was not impressed. They seemed to take a step back. As mentioned before MSU loses a ton on defense. And when does Cousins make big plays? He does okay if given time. ND has huge question marks as they may not be with Floyd, do not have a #RB, and have no clue who the QB is. They do have a lot of talented players.
If we try to restart the offense and insist to make DR into something he is not, mean goes to 7-8.
How do you figure that NW has a serious talent disadvantage? Not sure what their recruiting has been like, but with the exception of a few guys, our entire roster is made up of 3* recruits that were recruited to play in a system that favors different strengths.
Don't take this as a criticism of our team - and obviously we have some awesome players - but I am just curious to know how you arrive at the serious talent disadvantage.
Van Burgen
Stonum
Roundtree
Martin
Shaw
Koger
Lewan
Robinson
Roh
...and that's just the guys who have played significant time . There's plenty more that I didn't include (Stokes, Gardner, Campbell, Ash, M. Robinson, etc...)
Northwestern has one 4 star player from 2007-2011.
P.S. I'm not trying to start an argument, just providing some information!
For some reason, I didn't realize that Shaw and Koger were that highly ranked.
A few months back, there was a thread where I listed the large # of 3 and 4* talent that has transferred out or not qualified over the past 4-5 classes, and the numbers were disheartening. Got me into a glass half empty mode. Thanks for the positive info.
We obviously have much better potential talent than NW, but with it being our first road game and with the new system that could be a trap game.
I love this game!
I predict 8 wins - losses to ND, Neb and OSU, as well as a loss to one of the following: Illinois, NW or Lil Bro.
However, I do think that some of our B10 wins will be more comfortable and our losses will be more competitive.
There is no way we get through at Sparty, at Iowa and home to ND at 10-0. I'm a pessimist but that's hard to believe in the best of cases.
I'm not trying to get in to predictions this year but I think 8-4 would be a good achievement with the coaching change.
wins, but when you stare at the schedule (okay, squint at it, and in rose colored light) it doesn't seem impossible. ND and the confidence the team would take from a win over them, might well be the key.
God, I have been nursing my annoyance over the RR debacle right up to the present. But when I take a look at that schedule. . . I see a lot of teams I have come to hate the last 3-4 years. I used to look on football so much more benignly in the days when we tended to crush all comers.
7-5. I think it's ridiculous to think that we'll be significantoly better than that, especially with our defense.
I think that it's virtually impossible to improve significantly enough to say that we'll be a solid defense with how badly those players performed on the field. Mattison can only do so much.
Why should we expect the same mediocre team that took the field last year when we return everyone and have better coaches.
I only say "better," because that's obviously the point of a coaching change, to improve your abilities at running a football team.
We return everyone, but our defense didn't exactly have a lot of talent last year, and better coaching isn't going to make players better than they really are. We have better coaching on defense, but the talent isn't there. On offense... I'm definitely not ready to say that this staff is significantly better than the last before they've even coached a game. Borges's resumé doesn't exactly instill confidence in his abilities either.
"Better" is what the goal of a coaching change is, but it's definitely too early to say this staff's better yet. I know that Hoke's track record doesn't give me a ton of reason to believe that he can turn around a team in one year.
First of all - coaching and scheme can make a big difference, especially when it's been established that those things were sorely lacking last year. If our coaching and scheme was "meh" last year, then a new staff wouldn't make a big difference. But that's not the case.
I also think you're really underestimating the amount a player can improve from one year to the next. Between physical growth, technique training and added game experience, these guys stand to improve quite a bit. Our defense will have more depth, size and experience. Our DBs will go from "clueless" to "mediocre," and that change right there might be enough for a full win. Woolfolk in for Rogers alone could do that, not to mention the improvements on young guys like Avery, Johnson, Robinson, etc.
Again, I'm not saying the defense will turn heads, but they will be middle of the Big Ten, I predict. And that will make a big difference.
Mattison improves the defense and whether Borges and a new system cause the offense regress rather than improve upon last year.
The offense needs to remain close to the same level as last year, with Denard shoring up some turnover troubles and a running back emerging to help him.
The defense needs to chop about 7 to 10 point off that awful 35.2 a game. A better defense creating turnovers and shortening the field for the offense will go a long way in helping the offense transition.
Not to mention it would be nice to see a field goal or two, so our offense can drive 65 yards and not feel like it was a total waste when the ball flies wide left.
I'll be optimistic and say that by August, Borges will have a good understanding of the offense's strengths and what it will take to win football games. I'm sold that Mattison, on top of the incremental improvement experience should bring, will bring our defense back to somewhere right around average/slightly below average.
What does it mean for the first ten games? If the above comes to pass, because of Hoke, I don't think we lost to MSU. As much as I hate to say it, that game has become incredibly important and I believe he'll have everyone locked in for a victory.
The game that worries me is Notre Dame. Out of the first 10 opponents, they are the one that I truly think will be better than us. However, we are at home and it will be the first game under the lights.....
Illinois and Northwestern will both be tougher games than Iowa. I think we handle Iowa this year, they lose a lot, we lose no one and really, we were a slightly below average defense away from beating them last year.
10-0 is very possible, especially if we luck out with injuries and find a running back. If I had to bet my life on it right now, I'd say 8-2 with a loss to Notre Dame and one to Illinois/Northwestern.
DOUBLE POST
I'll take all the action you are willing to risk that Wisconsin doesnt beat Michigan this year. No way the Badgers beat the Wolverines.
It might be the biggest lock out there
Give me a three-leg parlay of UM not losing to PSU, Indiana and Wisconsin. 6:1 payout on a bazillion dollars == sweet.
Not if we play them in the B1G Championship Game!
April 20th, 2011 at 11:09 PM ^
Wisconsin loses a lot, but Michigan was just a few plays from being 4-8. I'm reserving my excitement until they either beat Notre Dame and deserve the win or have one loss after beating MSU. I can't get wrapped up in an illusory strong start again.
to get us into the Big Ten Title Game?
I honestly think 10 wins is possible but only if our special teams improves greatly. We are all in agreement that the D will be somewhat better next year because they can't be any worse. Our offense may take a small step back but I think we have to many returning starters for it to be anything more than that. So in order to win 10 games we will have to pull off a couple of close games. This often relies on your ability to make a FG! I am praying that the in coming kicker will cure this problem for us because the result could be a great season.
the majority here do NOT think my opinion is far out of whack? Keep a cool head mon...stay positive.....let the punt land and bounce our way for once in a LONG time......
Fuck bouncing.
It would be worth spending a scholarship on a guy who can wave fair catch and hold on the damn ball every single punt.
If Tyrone Willingham could stumble his way to 8-0 with all the luck he had his first season, I think Hoke is a shoe-in for 10-0.
I like to think of this in terms of liklihood - if we played the game 5 times, how many would Michigan win? Convert that to a rough percentage and do the math.
- 5 Probable Wins (>80%): Western, Eastern, SDSU, Minnesota, Purdue
- 2 Favored (60-80%): @Northwestern, @Illinois
- 2 Toss-ups (40-60%): Notre Dame, @Iowa
- 2 Underdogs (20-40%): @MSU, Nebraska
- 1 Probable Losses (<20%): OSU
That adds up to about 8, but if you make me pick a number I'd take the optimistic view and say 9 wins...
I don't forsee us getting upset in any of the 7 likely wins (even by Illinois or NW). I see a win in one of the toss-ups and then pull an upset in one of the 3 toughest games, probably late in the year when the D has had a chance to sort itself out and Denard settles into the new offense.
It's not that I think MSU's so great (they may indeed take a step in wins) it's just a bad spot for Michigan. MSU does returns a lot of talent and it's Michigan's first tough road game. Denard could still be adjusting to the new offense to some degree and Sparty will be the first stiff test he faces. Plus, they did beat us by 17 in AA last year...
OTOH, I do have some faith in our old-school D figuring out a way to stop their old-school running game (more so than say a spread-oriented attack).
Still, I'd be pretty surprised if we won in East Lansing this year. Hope I'm wrong.
Yes, they did beat us by 17 last year (which is a solid margin, but not exactly a blowout). However, a couple things go differently and it's a completely different ballgame. First, Denard had a bad day throwing the ball, completing about half his passes and throwing 3 picks. Those three picks lead to 10 Sparty points, and one of the picks was when we were 4 yards from scoring. That's your 17 points right there.
Also, MSU ran for 250 yards in that game, with 102 of that coming on 2 big runs. This year our run D will be improved, but even if we can eliminate those two big runs it's a major improvement. And we missed a FG, which maybe that will be better this year and maybe not.
Lastly, although MSU returns a decent number on both sides of the ball, they lose some big playmakers too. Mark Dell is who really beat us in the receiving game - 93 yards and a TD - and he's gone. Charlie Gantt, their big TE, is also gone. Cousins will be a senior, but he won't have the same targets he had a year ago. Plus, outside of Donald Spencer who I haven't heard much about, MSU hasn't brought in any playmakers at WR in the last few classes.
In summary, MSU is a push at worst. Last year, they outgained us by 150 yards, but were +3 in turnovers, had 2 big plays and didn't miss a FG, which we did. Combine that with the fact that our team is taking a step forward from 2010, and MSU is likely taking a stepback (albeit a small one), I think MSU is, at worst, a toss-up.
And I'd like to share in your optimism but here are my concerns:
We can't just discount Denards 3 turnovers. It seemed that nearly anytime he faced a tough defense turnovers were pretty frequent. We can hope that changes with a new scheme, staff, and with him as a Junior, but it seems a little optimistic to just assume Denard won't hand MSU some points, particularly on the road.
I wasn't so impressed by Dell. He was fine, but with how open MSU's receivers were and with Cousins back, I'd expect their passing game to remain fairly effective. The key though was that we were physically dominated in the running game. If we stop their run game, it's a different ball game.
The assumption that we are taking a step forward is just that. Yeah, its safe to say the defense will be better based on the experienced coaches and number of returning contributors...but the offense - none of us know how good it will be or if we come anywhere close to being as effective as last years, turnovers and stinkers included.
Personally, I think we'll be an average Big10 defense and above average Big 10 offense. With the way the schedule lays out I think leads us to a few more wins. But I don't necessarily think we'll be significantly better as a team than we were in '10 because that offense really blew up in the UConn and ND games and then single-handedly won us the Illinois and Indiana games. Hard to say how the '11 team would have done in those situations....
Just that your avatar is hyp-mo-tizing me.
Over ND & Ohio. Every other win would be icing on the cake.
<br>Big Blue has a good chance of beating the bucks this year. Notre Dame not so much. It's going to suck if we lose the first night game at Michigan Stadium.
<br>I'm saying 8 wins tops.
can someone please explain the new "ohio" thing? Is it just to annoy OSU people, or is there some history to it?
Bo spent the whole year preparing for M-OSU 1969. This was the year of "50" and putting labels on everything with the number 50 to motivate the team after the 1968 M-OSU debacle. The week before the game, the players had an impromptu "Beat Ohio" chant going in the locker room. Other then that, I couldn't tell you where it comes from.
1. The Giants do not play ND or "Ohio" - they are in the NFL. They are also "Big Blue." We are not.
2. We don't play Ohio University this year. Even if we did, I wouldn't consider it to be a big deal if we beat them - they are terrible. I would rather beat OSU.
3. Would you really be fine with a 2-10 season that included a loss to MSU?
4. You think that we have no chance against ND, but that we have a good chance to beat the "bucks"? Seriously? Even with their off the field problems, the "bucks" are loaded at virtually every position. Add to that the fact that the tat 5 will be playing in only their 7th game of the season - i.e. less banged up than if they played the full 12. Sorry, that game scares me the most.
Given the schedule this year I'm assuming everyone would know I meant Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, and San Diego State. Much the same as ND and Ohio.
<br>The Notre Dame game (I spelled it out just for you) scares me the most because of my close proximity to South Bend. Around these parts it's the biggest game of the year and if we lose I'm going to have to here about it for a year.
<br>Obviously 2-10 will not be good enough, that's why I picked 8-4 at the end.
<br>I'm not even going to explain "Big Blue" and what it means to me personally.
Given how my day has gone thus far, I'm going to acknowledge that I typed "here" when I should have typed "hear" before someone proof reads my post and kindly points it out to me.
<br>This is like my third day on Mgoblog. I can't wait for tomorrow.
Mgoblog: It's not just a blog, it's an adventure.