2010: RR, the defense, and why we win 9 next year.
It finally clicked today. I couldn't figure out where all my unbridled optimism was coming from, or why I feel so good about 2010, but I put my finger on it today:
The defense of 2010 will resemble the offense of 2009.
Hear me out here:
The bulk of our defense returns, just like the bulk of our O in 2009. Though BG, DW, and SB will be hard to replace, I don't believe you can do much worse than the hole that Sheridan/Threet was on O. With a halfway competent QB and the rest of the crew staying the same, the offense was blazing last year; I expect the same of the defense. Although plugging in "game-ready" freshman won't lead to a perfect defense, they should at least be serviceable, much like Forcier was (although probably to a lesser extent). Serviceable defense will win games with the kind of offense we'll be throwing out next year.
EDIT:IDK why, but the spacing is f'd up.
so maybe no more Illinois plays, four downs from the one because if so it would make me very very very happy
Has to be better this fall, or we'll see more 3rd-and-9s than 3rd-and 3s. Man, oh man, did we we miss Molk last year.
Look at Odoms coming around from the opposite side and blowing that dude up. Dammit I fucking love Odoms.
Far and away my favorite player. Plays full heart every play and puts as much effort into a block as he does a bubble screen. He's already been something special for this team.
We just need to win.
I really feel like people underestimate Tate's injury and its effect on our offense. Not only did his accuracy on short passes degrade, but the deep ball was pretty much taken out of the gameplan after that. When he did throw it, it was terribly underthrown (compare the perfect bomb he threw to Hemingway against western and the underthrown ball to Denard later in the season). That freak injury against Indiana really screwed us for the rest of the season, allowing teams to ignore any sort of deep threat and stack the box. I expect Tate to be back, healthier than ever and with that same accuracy we saw in those first four games.
The offense did show potential last year, but there were quite a few boneheaded mistakes by everyone and that was because of youth. That should change with an added year of maturity and if the O-Line stays healthy, there's a lot of weapons on offense and I'm confident they will be utilized properly.
On defense, an additional year traditionally helps (just look at Nebraska), but there are quite a few holes. No proven players in the secondary. Starting Woolfolk and Dorsey at corner are pretty much acts of desperation, although we're not facing any deep receivers this year (except maybe the ND receivers but I don't think their QB will get them the ball) so that weakness might be masked (not against SEC teams, Texas or USC, though). But the secondary is young and unproven. They might make some great plays but then give up an inexplicable touchdown, very much like the offense last year. There remains grave concerns at LB. The key will be up front. There's good depth and some talented players there with playing experience. If the run can be stopped and there's pressure on the QB, the team can reach 9-10 victories.
Other than that, barring injuries, just the natural progression from an offseason and experience will probably yield 8 victories.
March 18th, 2010 at 10:41 PM ^
Yes, a second year with the same D scheme helps--but Nebraska didn't lose Suh like we've lost Graham.
And Bo Pellini is ten times the defensive coach Gerg is.
--I am guessing that your day job is not "Motivational Speaker".
Didn't Pellini work for Supercoach Miles before?...yeah he must be 100 times better than Gerg - a proven NFL commodity. --- Don't forget the coach comparison scale is logarythmic (sp?).
For what its worth - I'd even accept a D this year best described as seviceable.
We will win 9+ games this year because our offense will average 45.0 points per game. With a season under Tate's belt, a healthy shoulder on Forcier, a healthy knee on Molk, who is probably the best and most important player on the offense, our offense will simply explode.
Also, Roundtree will win the Biletnikoff.
Simple as that.
The '09 offense was improved but you could see lots of evidence of that improvement late in '08. Michigan had 200 yards on the ground against Penn State, Minnesota, and Purdue. Basically you could tell that the offense would have a breakout year in 2009 with a good QB. In stark contrast, the '09 defense did not give any reason at all to be optimistic. They started off mediocre and they ended up the year terrible. Michigan gave up a whopping 200 rushing yards per game in conference play, last in the conference. Since then, the three best players (including the best defensive end in the history of the program) have left. I saw absolutely positively zero reason last year to think that the '10 defense will be anything other than terrible. I don't know that our offense will be good enough to overcome a bad defense. Most of the teams in the Big Ten now have been seeing the spread for years and they know how to defend it.
I dunno, I would argue that the defense played its best game against OSU. Turnovers lost that game for us.
We certainly have raw talent and lots of competition. Combining those two, we should be able to turn out a halfway decent defense this year with the potential to be really good in 2011.