2010: RR, the defense, and why we win 9 next year.

Submitted by uniqenam on
It finally clicked today. I couldn't figure out where all my unbridled optimism was coming from, or why I feel so good about 2010, but I put my finger on it today: The defense of 2010 will resemble the offense of 2009. Hear me out here: The bulk of our defense returns, just like the bulk of our O in 2009. Though BG, DW, and SB will be hard to replace, I don't believe you can do much worse than the hole that Sheridan/Threet was on O. With a halfway competent QB and the rest of the crew staying the same, the offense was blazing last year; I expect the same of the defense. Although plugging in "game-ready" freshman won't lead to a perfect defense, they should at least be serviceable, much like Forcier was (although probably to a lesser extent). Serviceable defense will win games with the kind of offense we'll be throwing out next year. EDIT:IDK why, but the spacing is f'd up.

Blue boy johnson

March 18th, 2010 at 5:27 PM ^

My optimism is opposite of yours. I am optimistic because I don't think we start any true freshman at the onset of the season. I am hopeful Coach Robinson and crew have fully incorporated their D to our returning players

DGlenn26

March 18th, 2010 at 5:34 PM ^

I think Dorsey starts at the safety position. While, I'm not as confident that the defense will be turned around the way the offense was in 2009, if Dorsey can perform better than last year's safeties (not really a tall order) the D will definitely improve as corners could line up closer to the line of scrimmage.

mjkaiser09

March 18th, 2010 at 5:39 PM ^

I think the coaches have said that they're going to start Dorsey off at corner. This is probably due to the lack of depth at the corner position and to help ease his transition into the college game, because I think its easier to learn corner in college rather than safety. Ultimately, however, I think he'll end up at safety.

pee on freep

March 20th, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^

i agree with each statement 'mjkaiser09', and i take 'uniqenam's optimism on defense a step further and believe at least two of the incoming freshman on defense will go pro early, due to their stellar play on a consistently improving top 10 defense. consider dorsey, robinson, furman for instance, others... i hope each one of them stay (and be champions) and give us multiple NC's, get their degree then go pro, etc.. GERG back. summary, the D is coming back this year, and stronger each year after that. 2010 = Bowl, 2011 = BCS Bowl, 2012 = NC...\ and Go Flyers!

BiSB

March 18th, 2010 at 8:39 PM ^

If we aren't starting a true freshman, it means either:

(a) Woolfolk is playing corner, leaving the combination of Vlad, Williams, and Kovaks at safety (which scares the bejeesus out of me), or

(b) Woolfolk is at safety, leaving JT and JT Floyd at the corners (which is not much less scary).

I think this is one of those rare times where the worst-case scenarios DON'T involve a true freshman on the field...

steve sharik

March 19th, 2010 at 1:16 AM ^

...it's much more likely to happen at corner than at safety b/c safety is a lot harder to learn. The spring is huge, b/c the coaches need to find out if they can win with the players they have. Right now, the only guy I completely trust is Woolfolk. He's the only proven commodity. JT Turner is penciled in, so I guess we can count on him somewhat. Thing is, they're both playing corner this spring.

I think Cam Gordon at the weak side safety (LB/S hybrid) has a great opportunity this spring. I hope they move Kovacs back to that position as well. If they can't do it, Marvin Robinson has a real shot to start.

The biggest challenge for the coaching staff, in my opinion, is to find a strong side safety (almost always plays deep, either as a 1/2 safety or a center-fielder). This spot is wide open for Vlad Emilien to jump on. If he can't beat out freshly minted, 5'9" safety Teric Jones and others, look for one of two things (or maybe both) to happen. 1) Woolfolk moves back there in fall practice, and/or 2) Dorsey plays safety. Either way, Cullen Christian would then have a good shot to start at corner, provided he can beat out JT Floyd.

Now, it's not technically secondary, but don't forget that the Sam LB spot (aka spinner) is open. Brandin Hawthorne is there. However, don't forget that freakish Josh Furman will be coming in at that position. 6'3" 195 lbs. with a 4.37 40-yard dash and Barwis hasn't gotten ahold of him yet.

If no true freshmen start, then the veterans will have made a ton of improvement. Here's hoping they have.

Magnus

March 19th, 2010 at 10:05 AM ^

We'll see, I guess. It seems like the defense is being rejiggered, and The Wolverine made a point to say that players have been re-allocated to some different positions. So I think some changes are in order, but if nothing else, we'll find out what it looks like in the spring game.

Blue in Yarmouth

March 19th, 2010 at 10:24 AM ^

Since I have two of the defensive specialists in this segment I want to ask you both a question:

Does the fact that our team seems to be changing systems to an extent (to this one without a spinner) does that negate the advantage of having a second season with the same DC?

It seemed everyone was happy that Gerg was still here and our guys would have two years in his system, but does this change that? I guess what I am asking is whether a change in scheme = a change in system?

Sorry if this is a dumb question, I love football but didn't have the opportunity to play growing up so these things are lost with me.

Magnus

March 19th, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^

I don't think it's going to be much of a change in system. The only thing I think it really does is that it makes the two "overhang players" (as steve sharik mentioned) a little more versatile. If it's a true 4-2-5, either one could drop into a deep zone. Now, it does potentially make us a little smaller (for example, Steve Brown's 215 lbs. might be replaced by Jordan Kovacs's 200), but ultimately, the changes probably won't be extremely significant.

Blue in Yarmouth

March 19th, 2010 at 12:42 PM ^

Thanks Magnus, that was reassuring. I was happy Gerg stayed for many reasons, but the biggest reason was for some continuity for the guys on that side of the ball.

I am really looking forward to this season and can't wait to see how the D plays. For the first time in a couple of seasons I am expecting something from them.

Thanks again, your insight is always appreciated. Especially by fans like me who don't know all the the finer aspects of the game.

steve sharik

March 20th, 2010 at 12:32 AM ^

Like Magnus said, the spring game will tell us a little, but the games in the fall is where and when we'll really be able to tell.

I think they're simply changing some position names to fit more of what the defense does as a base, in addition to changing the coaching roles a little.

They were pretty much a 1-high (meaning 1 deep safety, as opposed to two) team last year, they just used 4-3 position coaches and terminology. I think they've just changed coaching assignments and position names to fit with what they do.

I love the flexibility, however, of being able to play 1 or 2 deep safeties depending on the offensive formations and play call tendencies. Also, we could very well consider what we've been referring to as the weak side safety as the weak side spur. That way, as Magnus suggested, either spur could rotate back to deep safety.

These are 3-3 stack principles, by the way.

saveferris

March 18th, 2010 at 5:35 PM ^

Optimism is warranted because the defense doesn't have to great for Michigan to have a good year. It needs to be competent. We should be able to make the improvement from "awful" to "competent" with the personnel we have.

Now if we have TEs sneaking into the flat for 45 yard gains again, then some tough questions need to start getting asked.

joeyb

March 18th, 2010 at 5:35 PM ^

Just wait till 2011 when we return 8 starters on defense including our entire DL and all our starters on offense except 2-3 OL.

tUOS is OSU

March 18th, 2010 at 5:47 PM ^

And... Maybe some players counted on Warren/Brown/Graham too much and thought theyd be dominating EVERY play. Sometimes when you lose all-americans your team gets closer together and plays tougher because they all want to step up, so they all step up together.

BiSB

March 18th, 2010 at 6:02 PM ^

The problem with the '08 offense was largely youth; we had talented players, but our talent was very young. Young players necessarily become older and more experienced.

The problems with the '09 defense were largely lack of depth and overabundance of suck. Our talent wasn't necessarily young; they just played badly (with a couple of exceptions), and were too few in number. The depth situation will theoretically improve this year, but the decrease in suck is not a given. Ezeh, Mouton, and [deep safety] in particular really need to step up and decrease their number of OH MY GOD WHERE WERE YOU GOING plays.

I do share your optimism overall, though, especially if the offense stays healthy (oh please, Benevolant 2010 God Who Feels Bad About How He Treated Michigan Last Year, let it be so...)

sschoenb

March 18th, 2010 at 6:01 PM ^

would be a nice argument, until you see how the offense did against OSU, P-State and Wisky. It is fine scoring 63 points against D-state, but any offense can be good against bad defenses or outmatched teams.

I beleive you have a high powered offense once you actually start scoring against better defenses.

Yes, Mich's offense imporved last year, but against bad defenses.

BiSB

March 18th, 2010 at 6:13 PM ^

But compared to '08, the '09 offense was remarkably competent, especially when it was healthy. We averaged 37 points over the first 7 games. Hell, we scored more points against Iowa than any team all year, and we did it at Iowa at night. Compare that to the yakety-sax efforts of '08, and I consider this year's offense pretty decent.

It was only when Tate's shoulder, Molk's foot/knee, Carlos Brown's ankle, and Brandon Minor's everything went on the fritz that the universe commenced the hundred-hand slap to the dong.

sschoenb

March 18th, 2010 at 6:23 PM ^

We did score a bit on Iowa, didn't we...I don't know.....I just felt like for the most part we scored well, until we played really good teams(with the exception of Iowa).

It just reminds me of those decent teams(like the Big East) who do well, until they play better teams outside their conference.

Look at Cinci...went 12-0 until Florida crushed them. Scored all over the place in the Big East...but couldn't do anything against a better defense.

Just my two cents

BiSB

March 18th, 2010 at 6:38 PM ^

but again, the offense was handicapped by injuries by the time we got to the bigger games.

Besides, I'd consider Ohio State the biggest game of the year and the best team in the Big Ten last year. We moved the ball pretty damn well against them; they outgained us by a total of nine yards, and we outgained them in the air like 3-to-1.

IndyBlue

March 19th, 2010 at 1:12 AM ^

If it wasn't for Tate's 5 (?) TO's, we would've put up at least 2 more touchdowns and it would have been a much better game. I don't see that happening again next year when he's (a) healthy and (b) has more experience. Our offense should be pretty potent next year.

WolvinLA2

March 18th, 2010 at 7:48 PM ^

We scored 24 points against Wisko, not exactly a barrage, but not an example of a poor offensive game. We were actually within 4 with a couple minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

That game ended up being pretty ugly, but it wasn't because of our offense. 24 points doesn't win every game, but you're usually in it with that many. However, allowing 45 points very rarely results in a win.

MCalibur

March 18th, 2010 at 9:28 PM ^

Offense wasn’t the problem last year.

Penn State Defense gave up and average of 14.9 ppg last year in the B10; Michigan scored 10 on them while turning the ball over twice in the red zone in addition to two other times.

Wisconsin Defense gave up and average of 24.3 ppg last year in the B10; Michigan scored 24 points.

Ohio State’s D gave up an average of 12.6 ppg in the B10; we scored 10 on them while committing 5 turnovers with 2 of those in scoring position.

Iowa’s D gave up 16.1 ppg in the B10; Michigan scored 28 on them while giving up 5 turn-overs with one being in scoring position. Michigan’s 28 points were the most allowed by Iowa all year.

The Michigan offense performed about as well as the average B10 offense did against those defenses with an injured true freshman QB playing behind an O-line missing its best player.

Defense and poor turnover margin are what killed M last season. The offense was fine for having those particular circumstances and stands to get significantly better.

Tamburlaine

March 18th, 2010 at 6:02 PM ^

Without eternal hope.

We Michigan fans are becoming like women who have children.

They forget the pain of the last one and think doing it again would be a great idea.

I'm a speculatin' M-EFFER myself--but now I'm in total "wait and see" mode.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Njia

March 18th, 2010 at 7:21 PM ^

Remember the "Weapon of Choice" hype video last year? Forcier shredded an admittedly inexperienced D. A lot of those guys saw playing time during the season. We all thought it was just Tate being really good. Turned out (as much) to be a D that was baaaaaad.

If, in the Spring Game, we see the Defense (particularly the secondary) performing at something approaching "competent" against our returning QB, then I think we're okay. If not, it could be another long season ahead.

BiaBiakabutuka21

March 18th, 2010 at 7:38 PM ^

seems tough to judge your offense or defense as a whole based on the spring game. No matter what your conclusion is, it is all speculation because it is all depends on how good the opposite side of the ball actually is.

However, I do agree with you here. If the defense plays well against our offense it will definitely be a good sign. If our offense plays well against our defense, we don't know if it is because our offense is potent or because our D is below par.

It is much easier to judge individual performances from the spring game.

Njia

March 18th, 2010 at 9:13 PM ^

But again, its individual performances that will tell the tale. In last year's spring game, Forcier made Swiss cheese of the secondary. Five touchdowns? For a "true freshman"?

Many of the guys he and the receivers went up against were in the two-deep or below. But, as injuries during the season piled up, these same players often found themselves defending the field against veteran QBs like Daryll Clark.

KidA2112

March 18th, 2010 at 7:28 PM ^

Tate must improve ball security.
Hopkins/Cox will hopefully turn 3rd and 3 into 1st and 10

RVB looks like he will play the BG role but I was holding out hope that JB steps up and Ezeh moves out of the middle.

The D will have a better idea whats going on out there which will hopefully enable them to add some wrinkles and add some blitz packages that will also make up for the loss of BG.

BiSB

March 18th, 2010 at 7:49 PM ^

Hopkins could certainly convert some 3rd and short situations, and/or hurt some people trying to do so.

I'm looking forward to Denard turning 1st and 10 into "Holy Shit, did you see that?!?!?"