18 Years Since a Big 10 QB Has Been Drafted in the 1st Round

Submitted by alum96 on

As I've been perusing the weekly NFL/NCAA articles on the wonder that is "MSU QB U" (Hoyer, Stanton, Cousins) [barf] and why the Big 10 is complete garbage I came upon a startling stat - the Big 10 has not had a 1st round draft pick at QB since 1995 - Kerry Collins.  I've cited the lack of elite QB talent in the conference a few times the past few years but growing up in an era where the average to decent Big 10 teams threw out Chuck Longs and Jeff Georges (say what you will about their NFL careers but these guys were gunslingers in college and drafted very early), that data point was a pretty damn sharp slap to the face.  

Yes draft position doesn't mean the end all be all about success in the NFL, but consider QBs generally get drafted much higher than they should be on talent alone due to this being the most important position in the sport.  So it's pretty damning.  Lately, it seems the SEC, Pac12, and Big 12 are QB central.

Drew Stanton, Drew Brees (2001) and our own Chad Henne came the closest to breaking that streak as 2nd round draft choices.  Some have Conner Cook mocked as a late 1st rounder so if not him than Hackenberg should break the streak soon but elite QB play has certainly not been a hallmark of Big 10 football for the past 15 years outside of Drew Brees, a few of our guys and MSU's guys.   Tressel-ball never really required it; neither did Alvarez-ball.  PSU has not been good at developing QBs the past decade.  We've obviously gone a different way since 2008.  And before we blame the spread - "the spread has taken over the Big 10!" - the same systems have spread all over the NCAA.

Went back to look from 2004 (10 years) and here is the list and round of NFL QBs - Russell Wilson could barely be called a Big 10 QB as most of his career was NC State.  The last 2 years there has not been a single Big 10 QB drafted in ANY round. 

  • 2004 - Krenzel (5th) OSU, Sorgi (6th) Wisconsin, Smoker (6th) MSU, Navarre (7th) UM
  • 2005 - Orton (4th) Purdue
  • 2006 - shutout
  • 2007 - Stanton (2nd) MSU, Smith (5th) OSU
  • 2008 - Henne (2nd) UM
  • 2009 - Painter (6th) Purdue
  • 2010 - Kafka (4th) Northwestern
  • 2011 - Stanzi (5th) Iowa
  • 2012 - Wilson** (3rd) Wisconsin, Cousin (4th) MSU
  • 2013 - shutout
  • 2014 - shutout

-->Terrelle Pryor was a 3rd round supplemental pick.

 

snarling wolverine

September 19th, 2014 at 10:31 PM ^

Henne probably would have gone in the first round if not for the injuries he suffered as a senior, and Drew Henson would have been a lock if not for baseball.  Just one of those weird stats that doesn't mean that much.

 

alum96

September 20th, 2014 at 10:20 AM ^

On Mallet - he went to a mid level SEC team and hence faced the type of tests (defenses) that closest resemble what the NFL can bring.  So really Arkansas in that era was no different than say Purdue in Brees era; in fact if I remember they were top 10 for part of Mallet's career.  So I dont think he would have been drafted any higher playing in the Big 10.  I think "character" concerns were always a Ryan Mallet issue - in fact I was surprised he was a 3rd rounder as the NFL usually looks that stuff over if the physical talent is so overwhelming.

Of course  Henson is a "who knows" situation if he had decided he loved football instead of baseball.

vertiGoBlue

September 19th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^

... didn't end well.

Mike Phipps (1970 3rd overall to Miami then traded to Cleveland for Paul Warfield). 11 seasons in the NFL (Cleveland and Chicago). QBR 52.6, TD-INT 55-108 

and, of course...

Art Schlichter (1982 4th overall to Baltimore). Sadly, the 2nd photo speaks for itself.

mgowill

September 19th, 2014 at 10:51 PM ^

This is a list of starting QB's as of this week in the NFL by team and conference.

Philip Rivers NC State ACC
EJ Manuel Florida State ACC
Matt Ryan Boston College ACC
Kirk Cousins Michigan State B10
Russell Wilson Wisconsin B10
Drew Brees Purdue B10
Tom Brady Michigan B10
Chad Henne Michigan B10
Brian Hoyer Michigan State B10
Drew Stanton Michigan State B10
Geno Smith West Virginia B12
Andy Dalton TCU B12
Joe Flacco Delaware CAA
Austin Davin Southern Miss C-USA
Ryan Fitzpatrick Harvard IVY
Ben Roerthlisberger Miami (OH) MAC
Colin Kaepernik Nevada MWC
Derek Carr Fresno State MWC
Jake Locker Washington P12
Nick Foles Arizona P12
Matt Cassel USC P12
Alex Smith Utah P12
Andrew Luck Stanford P12
Aaron Rodgers Cal P12
Eli Manning Mississippi SEC
Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M SEC
Matthew Stafford Georgia SEC
Peyton Manning Tennessee SEC
Jay Cutler Vanderbilt SEC
Cam Newton Auburn SEC
Josh McCown Sam Houston St SOUTHLAND
Tony Romo Eastern Illinois SUMMIT

and the break down of starters per conference....

ACC 3
B10 7
B12 2
CAA 1
C-USA 1
IVY 1
MAC 1
MWC 2
P12 6
SEC 6
SOUTHLAND 1
SUMMIT 1

If you take Russell Wilson out, that still leaves 6 NFL starters.  As many as any other conference on that list.  You should really stop listening to Colin Cowherd...

alum96

September 19th, 2014 at 11:22 PM ^

Again - sort of missing the point.  It is not what Big 10 QBs blossomed in the NFL (hi Tom B) as a late bloomber.  It is what QBs produced at the NCAA level thus helping their NCAA teams prosper; MOST (not all) of which are generally going to be a top 3 type round of QB (if not 1st rounder).  To that end Troy Smith did more for OSU than many of the QBs on that list in the Big 10 or heck the entire NFL list of QBs.  He had more impact at the NCAA level  - something more Big 10 teams need, no matter what they do in the NFL.  Now he is an outlier in the other direction of some other guys.  More like a Tebow; a monster at the NCAA level who did not work out in the NFL and lacked measurables to be highly drafted. 

Also as I wrote earlier this conversation will be interesting in 3-4 years - Tom is 37 and Drew is 35.  What are today a lot of retorts of  "oh yeah Big 10 QBs rock" are based on 2 QBs who have not seen a moment in the Big 10 in 12-15 years.   The Big 10 has degraded slowly but surely year after year - so I'd look at the recent 10 years more than 12, 15, 18 years ago.  And if we use a rolling 15 year average we're going to soon face a time when these 2 roll off the clock and Russell Wilson is our best conference QB (if you say his 1 year makes him a Big 10 QB) - not that he is not good he is just not those other 2 guys.  And he and Cousins (and Hackenberg) may be the only 3 legit starters in the league.  Henne and Hoyer are sort of guys in waiting as teams try to find someone who can beat them out at this point.

And fergodsakes Stanton is playing due to ancient Carson Palmer being injured.  Saying he is an NFL starter is like saying Orlovsky is a NFL starter. If RG3's leg wasnt destroyed Cousins also wouldnt be listed there (although I think Cousins is far better than Hoyer or Stanton). 

EGD

September 20th, 2014 at 12:29 AM ^

I'm afraid I don't see this one the same way, alum.

NFL teams generally don't draft quarterbacks based on college production, they draft based on projected NFL production. So you really can't discount players who "blossomed" at the NFL level if you are going to use the lack of first-round draft picks as evidence of the B1G not producing good QBs. Frankly, if every B1G team had a Troy Smith or Denard Robinson at QB, then the B1G would be full of awesome offenses--and would have no QBs projected to be taken in the draft at all (as QBs), let alone the first round.

BornInAA

September 19th, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^

Like the avatar Alum96- have that issue sitting in my bookcase.

I agree with you, the big ten has been bad the last 10-15 yrs. 

I remember the Rose Bowl was THE bowl because everyone knew the big ten and pac ten were the best. It was like this for decades.

 

SalvatoreQuattro

September 20th, 2014 at 12:02 AM ^

Honestly, that means more than a 1st round tag. Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, Matt Leinert, Vince Young...there have been a ton of 1st round QBs who either flat out sucked or were career backups.

Danwillhor

September 20th, 2014 at 12:44 AM ^

Texans owner (iirc) actually mentioned taking Henson #1 in a few short interviews/quick press quotes. Something along the lines of "We thought we had our QB", "I really wanted the Michigan kid", etc. I think it was the Texans but if not it was whoever had the top pick that year.

bacon

September 20th, 2014 at 4:50 AM ^

Active qbs to win Super Bowl:

Russell Wilson (B1G/ACC) -1
Joe Flacco (FCS) -1
Eli manning (SEC) -2
Aaron Rodgers (Pac12) -1
Drew Brees (B1G) -1
Ben Roethlisberger (MAC) -2
Peyton Manning (SEC) -1
Tom Brady (B1G) -3

When it comes to the NFL, I think this list is way more important and clearly the big ten is doing just fine.

canzior

September 20th, 2014 at 7:40 AM ^

Hackenberg will be a first rounder, Shane has the all important arm strength. But Notre Dame isn't sending them to the league like they used to either. #3 on a ND qb was like #1 at Michigan. Notice there are no Bama, OSU, LSU, or Oregon qbs starting. College dominance means nothing.



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I Wrote a 4 Wo…

September 20th, 2014 at 8:58 AM ^

The reason people calling MSU "QB U" is annoying to me is the fact that Hoyer won't be starting at the end of the year and Stanton only started because of an injury to the starter (and also won't be starting at the end of the year). And no one thinks they will be.

So they have Kirk Cousins, who has looked good in limited time. So they have one starter-quality quarterback and two backups. QB U?



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