15 players who made bad NBA draft decisions
1. Jahii Carson - AZ St
2. Glenn Robinson III, Michigan Wolverines
First, let me make it clear how much I like GR3 as a kid. He’s soft-spoken, humble and almost too nice. He was drafted 40th by Minnesota, and there’s certainly a chance he can stick with the Wolves. However, he could have returned to Ann Arbor, been the primary offensive weapon in 2014-15 -- which is exactly what he needed -- and turned himself into a first-rounder with a guaranteed deal.
7. Laquinton Ross (Ohio St)
Problem is that there's no gaurentee he'd be the primary offensive weapon with UM. Especially with McGary gone, he'd be playing the four a lot again with LeVert, Irvin, and Walton all primed for offensive explosions.
Don't know why this got negged because it's spot on. LeVert is/was going to be the offensive centerpiece, especially in pick-n-roll situations, because GRIII just doesn't have to handles to play it like Trey/Nik/Caris.
What Glenn really needed was an off-season dedicated solely to ball handling. If he could add more of a dribble-drive element to his game he'd become much tougher to defend.
he can get paid to work on it every day in practice, full-time, with elite trainers and coaches guiding him
but NBA coaches aren't teachers. You're expected to be able to do those things Once you reach the league.
and I suspect they think they do it better than most college coaches
Especially for rookies. Some teams have dedicated coaches for each individual player. Lebron James learned to post up in the last two years. If you don't think NBA players are developing their games, you aren't paying attention.
come from people who don't watch the nba
Well, I think that's exactly the point. If he stuck around for another year, focusing on ball handling and maybe improving his defense a bit, he would become a bigger piece of the offense and a potential lottery pick.
No. Neither Chatman nor Wilson would've started (and Wilson probably would redshirt if GRIII came back). Starters would've been Walton, LeVert, Irvin, GRIII, and Donnal/Doyle.
Sure, no one knows Chatman wouldn't have started, but your scenario is far more unlikely. Irvin played a lot of minutes last year, and Chatman was in high school, so it stands to reason that Irvin was the one getting the starting nod over Chatman.
I do agree with you that it was a poor decision on his part.
If Donnal is a center, who is left to play the four that has any size?
Book it
I don't find the irreverence of a players size very relevant in this situation.
Those are pretty big assumptions for kids who haven't played a minute of college ball and we have little idea if they can step right in and contribute. Big guys in particular can struggle with the transition to college when older players can match them physically. I'd be surprised if either of them would be able to play a full game at the 4, even toward the end of the year. GRIII was going to see a lot of time at the 4 in all likelihood.
Height isn't everything. Chatman and Wilson might be slightly bigger in height, but they are giving up a lot in weight and strength. Chatman is only an inch taller then Robinson, but gives up over 20 lbs to him. DJ Wilson is 2 - 3 inches taller, but still gives up over 15 lbs. Let's be real here, neither one of those two would start at the PF over GRIII. I could see Chatman push Irvin for time at the 3 in this scenario, but you are talking about replacing a 3-year starter at that position who has helped take us to a final four and a elite eight apperance as our starting PF. Would not have happened.
Oh wait, he was there for 8 years.
I thought he was still there?
Nah you are thinking about Brian Cardinal. Is he still on Purdue or did he finally use up all 12 years of his eligibility?
Sportswriters have such great 20-20 hindsight.
Isn't it a little early to say GR3 made a bad NBA draft decision?
When you have to fill 500 words on a deadline, it's never too early.
Not necessarily. Sure, he could become a great player over the next couple of years, but that would require him to make some big strides. And if he made those same big strides while in college, it would have net him a few million bucks.
because he'd enter free agency one year older/closer to retirement.
The rookie contract isn't everything.
Moreover, In many cases 2nd round picks are better off financially than 1st rounders because they hit free agency sooner.The salaries drop off precipitously outside of the lotto, making the rookie earnings differences marginal. That's why there were rumors McGary's agent was trying to get him to fall into the second round.
It's unlikely GR3 was ever going to be a top 5-10 pick. He cost himself money by not declaring last year. He would have cost himself even more by waiting yet another year.
Getting SIGNED to an NBA roster is the goal for a second rounder. Most 2nd rounders never make an impact at all, let alone make it to a second contract of any value.
For most first rounders, succeeding the NBA and getting their option yeras picked up is the goal.
The only players thinking about starting the clock so they can hurry to their 2nd contract are can't miss guys like Jabari Parker.
My initial inclination was to agree more with Mat, re: the costs/benefits of being taken in the 2nd round. However, it looks like there really is a fairly sharp downgrade in career prospects for players taken at the beginning of the 2nd compared to those taken at the end of the 1st: Harvard sports guy.
Since 1st rounders HAVE to be paid for 2 years, teams look at them as a sunk cost and throw them out onto the floor and push them to be developed/contribute. Shockingly enough, the players that play/practice get better.
On the other hand, 2nd rounders are completely expendable and end up being the first ones cut/send to the D-league/shipped over seas. They have about 5 seconds to make a major impact and get someone's attention. If they DO, they have a shot. Otherwise, they are done.
It's a massively unfair system for the 2nd rounders, but that is the system, and that is why if you actually have talent, you want to do eveyrthing in your power to be a 1st round pick.
There is no, let me repeat NO situation where a player would rather get taken in the 2nd round or is "better off" getting taken in the 2nd round. McGary's agent was NOT trying to get him to fall into the 2nd round. If he was, McGary would have fired him and he would most likely have been banned from ever being an NBA agent ever again due to incompetence.
1st round picks are GUARANTEED 2-year deals. 2-round picks aren't even guarnateed to be SIGNED. So the last pick in the first round this year got $2.24 MILLION, GUARANTEED, the moment he got picked. The next guy picked got NOTHING. NOTHING. He might not even get signed to a deal and may never play a single minute in the NBA.
There is absolutely, positively NO situation where you would WANT to be a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st round pick. NONE.
McGary, BTW, is guaranteed $2.83 million with his deal and can max out at $6.82 million if the team picks up all 4 years of the deal. Stauskas is guaranteed $5.62 million with a max of 12.42 million if he gets both of his option years picked up.
The idea that GR III is better off as a 2nd rounder than he would have been as a 1st rounder next year is, well, insane. There is of course no way to know if he would have been a 1st rounder next year, but to say that it doesn't even matter is just not true. Being a 1st rounder next year would have been considerably better for him than the situation he is currently in.
to never put much stock in anything Matt says. He has shown a tendency to post as if he is sharing facts when in reality it is only ever his opinion. It's also not much point debating things with him, just FYI.
This isn't meant to be offensive Matt, as you and I have never had any disagreements that I remember, but I have witnessed many you've been involved in, so this isn't surprising to me.
the countless number of players who went on to successful careers abroad.
but that list doesn't really help your cause a ton. I mean, you list guys whose NBA careers ended more than 4o years ago which implies (though I'm sure unintentionally) that this list is ALL of the people who made that kind of impact from the 1960 through 2014. So when you look back in history 60 years and come up with 26 names that shows this is being a very big exception and not even remotely close to the rule.
Again, I agree that being a second rounder isn't a death sentence by any means, but this list is probably a better example of why he should have stayed rather than entered the draft.
I'm not stating whether GRIII is going to be successful or not, my point was only that your list wasn't portraying what you wanted it to. I agree with essentially everything you are trying to say, I just don't think the list is helping your case.
I'll let you all know in a couple of years whether GR111 made a bad decision.
If we're only on GR3, you've got a few years in front of you before you get to see GR111
He isn't aggressive and doesn't play D. To top it all off Ross, at 6'6' and 239lbs, posted the highest body fat (16.3%) percentage of any player at the NBA combine.
I think GR3 made the bad decision last year when he decided to stay. Would have probably been close to a lottery pick in the 2013 draft and made more money. No guarantees his stock goes up or down with another year at Michigan. And for posters saying "he needed to work on his handle and shot another year", can he not do that as an NBA player? His whole day can be dedicated to basketball as a pro. In college, he has other obligations. Whether GR3 makes it in the league is not going to depend on when he left school IMO.
If there is so little time to "work on your game" in college, then why do we see guys like Stauskas and Levert take such huge leaps? Did they not have other obligations?
IMO, the time to work on your game is before your one big opportunity in life--the NBA draft. The draft is the one biggest shot you'll have to make or break your NBA career. If you don't get into the 1st round, well you end up having to do things the hard way.
Where did I say there was little time? I said he'd have less time in college than he would as a pro. The time to make improvements is in the offseason. For whatever reason, Nik and Caris were able to make improvements and GR3 wasn't able to make as drastic of a jump forward as a sophomore as those guys.
I don't disagree that you'd prefer to improve your stock and game before that draft (that is pretty much common sense). But who says he makes a big step before next year's draft? He was lottery in 2013. Late 1st/early 2nd in 2014. I don't think his stock skyrockets in 2015 unless he was able to make huge improvements. And he's just as likely to make those improvements as a pro his rookie year, riding the bench getting spot minutes, as he is with a third year in college playing in a system that does not highlight his skills.
There was no guarnatee he makes a jump in 2015. But the value of making those improvements in college and THEN going into the draft are HUGE. Right now he's facing the possibility of not even being signed to his team.
You are probably right that he should have gone after his freshman year but that is really big hindsight, as no one could have forseen that he would play so poorly for a good chunk of 2014. My point is, he lit it up during the end of 2014. I mean, he played really well for the last month of the season. IMO all he really had to do is keep playing like that for an entire season and he's probably a 1st round pick.
These writers treat draft position as if it's the ending goal rather than just a start.
If an early-entry kid ends up being an NBA player they made a wise choice. Going back to college probably doesn't change their fate, in most cases. The part that bugs me the most about this is the insinuation that the NCAA is a great place for kids to develop their skills. Those who are going to do this for a living are better off developing as a full-time professional than as a part-time student. Playing in the D-League or abroad is probably better for development than playing in the NCAA. More time is available to develop skills and the competition level is higher. Some kids aren't ready, especiallly mentally for it, but if you've proven you're a high level NCAA player and you want to enhance your skills, there's not much reason to stay where you are at (unless you love college life.)
The only guys clearly making a mistake are the ones that don't have a future as professional basketball players -- the ones that won't earn enough to offset what they gave up - paying for getting a college degree later in life, if they want it.
GR3 might have gotten into round 1 if he had returned, or not... It would have given him a heftier rookie contract, but also delayed his time to free agency, sacrificing long-term earnings. If he turns into an NBA player that's a major consequence. If he isn't, I imagine his father can help him get his degree later.
If you put together a list of guys who should have gone pro last year, it looks a lot more convincing than the list of people who made mistakes in declaring this year.
I bet if you polled the guys stuck in the D-League and asked them if they'd rather be in the D-League or starting on a major Div 1-A team, about 90% of them would choose the NCAA .