10/4/15 College Football Rankings Thread (AP #18, Coaches #21)
After last weeks demolition of BYU, there was a thread for every individual ranking that was published. I thought it may be cleaner for the MGoBoard if they could be consolidated into a single thread, especially since threads such as the Coaches Poll ranking typically only generate one thought (omg these rankings suck).
Here are the rankings available for Michigan:
ESPN FPI: #20 (#17 power rankings)
Sagarin: #7
Massey: #20 (#21 power rankings)
Massey Composite: #14 (will likely change as more rankings become available)
AP Poll: #18
Coaches Poll: #21
There are countless polls available, so if there is one you'd like to point out just leave a note and I'll add it.
May work. May not. Worth a shot.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
The #14 came from the composite rankings. I should have been more specific.
Thanks. I updated the OP.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
oh ok. no problem
October 4th, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^
How are we going to fill in for Mario? He was just coming into his own. RJS will get his chance at major playing time. Just seems like he's not as stout at the POA as Mario. Perhaps some shuffling? Magnus?
October 4th, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^
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October 4th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
Fear not. For many years, I feel like we did not have the "next man up" mentality. I hope Ojemudia heals quickly but sometimes people shine in moments like this. RJS or a shift across the line could be just the trick.
October 4th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
Mario is a loss, I admit, but I think we'll feel it more against OSU and maybe MSU. Northwestern is like BYU--a bunch of below-average athletes (by FBS standards) playing way above their heads. They're about to run into a buzzsaw.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:00 PM ^
NW has an awesome MLB who'd prob be the 4th best athlete on UM and certainly the best of our LBs. He is from Miami.
They also have a very good safety who would be a very good athlete for us and in fact was a Hoke target.
October 5th, 2015 at 9:10 AM ^
Anthony Walker? Whose only offers were from Buffalo, Bowling Green, Florida International, Minnesota, and Purdue?
October 4th, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
Let the angst flow through you!! Good, good, muahahahahaha
I know what you mean - been awhile.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
DJ Durkin has this. Film of RJS shows he is capable, Marshall is capable too. I think you could also do some shifting this week and find someone to play BUCK. Taco Charlton I am looking in your direction. It must sting Mario so much but we all appreciate his contribution.
October 4th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
I share this feeling.
And now Saturdays can't come fast enough!
October 4th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
This week I was going to move Ole Miss #1 if they had one @UF...derp! Sucks for Michigan that Florida gets a big win and all the top teams that lost...are too high to jump. But a win over MSU and M leaps them ALL. We'll get our shot to move up big in the polls. Beat MSU and you jump all 1-loss teams likely into the top 10. Beat NW and jump a few spots the week next week.
The point is...
JUST WIN!
Right now, we're probably #20 - it'll be interesting to see if Ole Miss and Bama are higher or lower than Northwestern.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
I don't see UM cracking the top ten with a win over State.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
Huh? No judgement...I just said "one" when I meant "won." Just confused on what you're trying to say.
And beat undefeated NW and undefeated MSU in back to back weeks and we'll be RIGHT THERE.
There are 11 teams right now that are undefeated and could make up your top 11 this week...obviously MSU and NW would drop out.
Michigan and Florida would be the two teams that jump into that group.
Florida and MSU would actually help Michigan in this instance because it would be tough to put Ole Miss over UF and the same logic would put Ole Miss over Bama and Michigan over MSU.
It's not certain, and I know that's now how it always works...but it's definitely not farfetched.
You'd be talking UF at #10 and Michigan at #11...and the MSU, ND, Bama, Ole Miss, UCLA, Stanford all right there behind UF and Michigan.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
Top 10 because LSU and UF play each other the same day we play MSU...I'd expect the winner of that game to be ranked and ranked higher than us. But the loser would drop out of this list.
- OSU (Maryland/PSU)
- TCU (KSU/ISU)
- MSU (out)
- Baylor (Kansas/WVU)
- Utah (Cal/ASU)
- LSU (S. Car/UF)
- Clemson (GT/BC)
- Oklahoma (Texas/KSU)
- Texas A&M (Bama)
- FSU (Miami/L'ville)
- Northwestern (out)
- Florida (Mizzou/LSU)
...whew that was exhausting. Thank you Google.
So you have a top 10 with MSU, Northwestern (obviously) and the loser of LSU/UF out.
Clemson could Clemson versus Georgia Tech next week. TAMU's got Bama. That could have Michigan all the way up to #8. We're probably not the 8th best team, but hey...we'd take it, right?!
Now...the problem. The problem is obvious. We're not undefeated. We're just a 1 loss team with a good 1 loss. So more likely than the scenario above is that the "market" corrects itself and we get lumped in with all of the other 1-loss teams.
Bama, Ole Miss, the UF/LSU loser, Stanford, USC...all those teams would be right there as 1-loss teams.
Likely #10-#15 is a bunch higher probability when you break it down.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
A win over Northwestern would probably put UM in the top 15. Then a win over a top 5 MSU (i think they fall to 4th) this week, would probably propel UM into the top 10.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^
taco (s) or wormley at the buck.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
Gotta be Taco in run situations and RJS in passing situations.
I've been wanting to see Taco and Wormley together on the field all season. Hopefully we get that. It's going to put more pressure on the LBs because he won't be able to drop into coverage like Ojemudia did from time to time.
NW also has a mobile QB, so that worries me a little bit.
If you would've had me rank the starting 11 on defense...Ojemudia is probably the 11th of 11 on my list.
However, in terms of importance...he was 6 or 7th most import, IMO. A big reason is because he didn't have a proven backup.
He was starting to play a lot better and I say the LBs must play better when Bolden has a "meh" game (while admittedly Morgan played an AWESOME game on Saturday).
October 4th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
First and foremost, having a combined rankings / metrics thread actually is a good idea, although we probably won't be able to avoid having seaprate threads for the AP and Coaches polls. Actually, it is these days that make me yearn for Pollspeak to come back - the individual votes by writer were a mere download away then.
Looking at Massey's individual probability estimates for games, it's remarkable how much rosier that picture has become in the space of a few days. On Thursday, the estimated win probability for the MSU game was 35% - it is 50% now. Penn State jumped from 60% to 70% and Ohio State from 23% to 34%. I will do the matrix this week and post it, but the Harbaugh Effect is now being felt in these metrics.
October 4th, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^
according to Massey, 8.55-3.45
October 4th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
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October 4th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
our next 2 games will be against 2 top 15 teams...maybe higher depending on where NW falls...Win those two..AT HOME mind you and we are exceeding any and all possible hopes for this year with our only loss being a road loss to a top 5 probably Utah....the next two weeks may be the biggest two weeks in a Very LONG LONG time....can it be? can we actually do it?
October 4th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
I like our chances with this defense against NW at home, but offense is going to have to step up. As in most games, the offensive line will tell the story.
They are much improved, along with the team's offensive cohesiveness in general, but at times they seem a little slow. If they play well, we have enough playmakers to move the ball.
October 4th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
I have confidence that we can win both of these games. But whatever happens, one thing is clear, we WILL be a dominant program once again!!
October 4th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
The Colley Matrix (former BCS component, ignores MOV, changed his poll in-season after the Horror):
http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html
This week: Your #1 Northwestern Wildcats at #19 Michigan.
(Methinks it's a wee bit early for unbiased computer rankings, particularly those which refuse to consider all of the avialable information).
October 4th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
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October 4th, 2015 at 4:04 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 1:16 PM ^
—who struggled at home against MAC power Ball State—is farcical in the extreme, but this is far from the first time Colley has produced completely ridiculous polling results.
NW is a good team—good enough to beat Michigan if we play poorly—but saying they're better than OSU, TA&M, MSU, TCU, Baylor, LSU, etc. is just plain fucking crazy.
October 4th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
#17 in this morning's Power Rankings ...other polls to update in a bit
http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/seasontype/2/year/2015/w…
October 4th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^
Utah jumping from #9 to #1 without playing a game this week? that's interesting, so the narrative now is that Michigan's only loss is against the best team in the country on the road by a TD
October 4th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
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October 4th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
I think I said this last night, but in coaches'/AP polls, I see us at 20-21. Iowa will be ranked ahead of us at 19-20.
October 4th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
Having Rutgers and Maryland in our schedule instead of Iowa and Wisconsin pisses me off to no end
October 4th, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
Because we have played Iowa and Wisky for decades and there's alot of memories there old fogies like me.
Maryland and Rutgers I don't even know why they are in our conference.
October 4th, 2015 at 4:01 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
Almost nailed it. Michigan #21. Iowa two behind at #23.