Peppers at 10, which seems low.
Rich Rodriguez was on Jim Rome this afternoon, and the news was attrition-errific. First the receivers:
"I've talked to Adrian since the bowl game a little bit and I think he's leaning toward coming out," Rodriguez said on the show. "I don't think he's made the announcement yet. I have not seen Mario, and I don't think he's back in Ann Arbor yet, so indications are that he may be coming out, as well. I want to wish them the best. I didn't know them very well. I've watched them play, and they're great players, and obviously for selfish reasons I'd like to have them come back, but if they feel that's what's best for their careers, they've got to do that, and we'll be OK as well."
"I believe he's going to transfer," Rodriguez said. "He has not told me specifically and he's told other folks in the program. I talked to him a couple times, again, before the bowl game and once after the bowl game and gave him our spiel. But, again, if he chooses to leave, he's going to make a choice that's best for him, and we'll be OK."
"I talked to him and all the quarterbacks about how our system can adapt to the quarterback because we've had throwing quarterbacks in this system that have had great careers and gone on to the NFL and all that," Rodriguez said. "But I did it a couple times (with Mallett.) I recruited him once, I recruited him twice and after the third call, I'm thinking okay, three calls is enough for me. It's a great institution and if somebody doesn't want to be here that's already here, you wish them well and move on."
I... wow. Both of those quotes are blunt as hell. The very idea that Carr would 1) deign to appear on Jim Rome and 2) actually give substantive answers to somewhat delicate things like "Will Player X leave early/transfer?" is refreshing from the point of view of the information-starved Michigan fan.
Update: Apparently Carr made a yearly appearance on Rome; 1) above withdrawn.
Manningham's grandfather has a "we're still undecided and waiting on the NFL's evaluation" quote in the same article, but I'm with Rodriguez here. Rivals has a fuller transcript; Rodriguez again repeats that he expects to sign a full 25.
DC Hello? Shooting Blue mentions Rivals is hinting one Jay Hopson likely to be Michigan's next defensive coordinator. Hopson, a grad assistant at Tulane when Rich Rodriguez was offensive coordinator there, has been Southern Miss' defensive coordinator for the past three years. Relevant statistics:
The notable gap between yardage and scoring defense in 2005 was, as you might expect, almost wholly a product of the 7th-best turnover margin in the country and is sadly not indicative of magic beans that turn touchdowns into 20-yard field goals. The rest of the results are pretty mediocre, though Southern Miss often finds itself staring down the barrell of a matchup with a Florida or Virginia Tech and operates at a severe talent disadvantage.
Unfortunately, C-USA's website -- which seems almost deliberately unhelpful -- does not provide conference-only statistics so we can measure Hopson's performance against his peers. Some rough measures: in '06 USM led the conference in pass efficiency and scoring defense and was about 12 yards back of conference leader Tulsa in yardage terms. This year they again finished first in scoring defense and finished a paltry yard behind conference leader Houston in yardage defense. Indications are that after a rough start Hopson did well enough.
We're fortunate that college football's foremost blogger, with apologies to Orson, happens to simultaneously be college football's foremost Southern Miss fan. "Hopson" brings up two hits on SMQB. The first, after a depressing 20-17 overtime loss against East Carolina:
It has to be tough to be a coordinator at Southern - the Jays (Johnson on offense, Hopson on defense) are each the fourth in their respective positions in the last decade, but not much changes in scheme or result. The offense is relentlessly conservative, in a near-constant bog, while the defense is stretched to the breaking point to hang on to some kind of control. At a sparsely attended game like Saturday's, USM fans have pretty much free reign on the field afterwards, and SMQ took the North end zone as a shortcut to his car. When he ran across Hopson en route to the locker room, he told the coach, "Nice job hanging tough by the defense," which was not much consolation but was true: it gave up a couple drives, including the 60-yard, game-tying march over the final four minutes of regulation, but it also scored as many touchdowns as either offense, on a length-of-field interception return by no-name Eddie Hicks that momentarily turned the tide at the end of a frustrating ECU drive, and held the Pirates to the field goal attempt in the overtime after allowing them to get first-and-goal at the three. Before that, on ECU's tying drive, it had done exactly the same thing, and barely allowed the touchdown on a fourth-and-inches QB draw from a five-wide shotgun set; that's six stops at the goalline within a couple of minutes - that's at least fighting. In regulation, USM's defense allowed 10 points (the first ECU touchdown was a kick return) and about 275 yards. It gave up no true big plays. You have to be able to win with that.
A second note from the same post:
USM was back in a 3-3-5 look for almost every snap Saturday (for NCAA Football aficionados, this is actually more of a 3-4 than what you would recognize as a 3-3-5 from the game, but roving safety Brandon Sumrall moves out on slot guys occasionally and isn't a true linebacker), which SMQ had thought was employed just to deal with Houston's spread, but apparently worked so well there that it's the standard set now, because ECU ran plenty of traditional fullback/tight end sets.
Hopson appears to be versed in the 3-3-5, which often looks like a 3-4 against "2x1" sets that have unbalanced personnel and often uses a not-quite a linebacker in the vein of Sumrall. There's a chance the forty bucks I dropped on Jeff Casteel's "How to run the odd stack" video won't go to waste. (Casteel evocatively described the duties of the "spur" and "bandit" safety-type objects that flank the front six in the 3-3-5 like so: the bandit is a weakside player who "gets his meat cooked," generally given the responsibility for chasing a strung out player down without having to deal with a nasty blocker. The spur "gets his meat raw" and is forced to take on tight ends and fullbacks and the like. So it wasn't a total waste in any case.)
That's all well and good and hopeful and such. This in the aftermath of a Boise State housing, not so much:
|Coordinator||W-L||Pts./Game||>20pts.||>30pts.||Yds./Game||>400 yds.||Avg. Rank-Total D|
|J. Thompson (1996-98)||25-10||19.6||16||6||-||-||-|
|D. Wommack (1999-2000)||17-8||15.0||11||2||274.7||1*||5|
|T. Nix (2001-04)||29-20||19.4||24||8||335.8||12||31.3|
|J. Hopson (2005-)||18-11||21.4||20||8||351.5||11||50|
How much of this is on Hopson's ability and how much of it is on things he can't control we won't know for a while. You can spin that "T. Nix" preceding him either way after one Tyrone Nix was run off the South Carolina campus, pitchfork-toting mob in tow:
- Nix left the defense in shambles, I say! This excuses Hopson's rough first year!
- Southern Miss coordinators are fail!
Hopson, if hired, would be a wildcard. He has some experience, some knowledge of/affinity for the stack, some success, and some decided meh going on in t
he doldrum days of a coach heading for pasture. Judgment is withheld.
Ain't believing this until January 16th, but Manningham's grandfather says MM is likely to return:
''We're 85 to 90 percent sure (that he'll) return to Michigan, unless something spectacular happens,'' Simpson said. ''He has every intention to return for his senior year unless something spectacular happens.''
"Spectacular"? The only thing that could be construed as spectacular that might occur would be a highly positive response from the NFL's draft advisory panel. Like this:
''If someone comes to you and says that you're a first-round draft choice, that weighs a lot,'' Simpson said. ''No one has said that to us, yet.''
Is Manningham a first-rounder? That seems a silly question to ask for a guy who caught 72 passes for 1100-some yards this year, but he's not exactly Braylon Edwards-sized and has reputedly had some maturity issues. Maybe he'll get a second-round grade and return to prove the haterzzzz wrong?
No, probably not.
Update: Right, forgot. FWIW: a previously-reliable insider says both Manningham and Arrington are likely to depart, and this info came yesterday. Maybe grandfather isn't in the loop.
Update II: Hey, GBN's latest draft board has Manningham #36. (Jake Long #3, Shawn Crable #44, Mike Hart #55, Chad Henne #73, and Jamar Adams #113 FWIW. Also: remember Jason Jones, the Eastern Michigan DT who had a disturbing field day against us? Legit NFL prospect who checks in at #96.)
Hokay. Barwis and his S&C staff are officially Michigan employees:
Rodriguez said Sunday that he has hired the Mountaineers' six-member strength and conditioning staff to work under him at Michigan.
"They have been an integral part of our success on the field and I know they will help us attain our desired success at Michigan," Rodriguez said in a statement.
The staff consists of director Mike Barwis; assistants Chris Allen, Parker Whiteman and Kentaro Tamura; and graduate assistants Dennis Murray and Jesse Miller.
This is two out of the three high-level targets secured; Jeff Casteel is apparently staying behind. Meanwhile, ESPN's article on the Michigan hirings has been updated:
A number of West Virginia assistant coaches, including assistant head coach/offensive coordinator Calvin McGee, are headed to Michigan to follow former Mountaineers' coach Rich Rodriguez, according to a source.
Six of the coaches are McGee, offensive line coach Greg Frey, quarterbacks coach Rod Smith, safeties coach Bruce Tall, defensive backs coach Tony Gibson and wide receivers coach Tony Dews. Strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis is also headed to Michigan.
Tall (safeties) and Dews (wide receivers), previously undecided, are now supposed to be coming to Michigan. (The "supposed" will remain until confirmation comes from Michigan itself.)
This might put an end to hopes that Erik Campbell would be retained, but not so fast, my friend(!). Dews' coaching career is remarkably vagabond. Last year, of course, he coached West Virginia's wide receivers, but he did special teams and linebackers the year before at UNLV, tight ends at CMU the two years before that, and defensive line at Holy Cross the year before that. In his time as a grad assistant at WVU (a remarkable stretch of four years without a cross-country move) he worked with the offensive line and secondary. Aside from quarterbacks and running backs there isn't a position on the field Dews hasn't coached. In college he was a tight end at Liberty.
It appears that Dews' primary value to Rodriguez is in recruiting, as his wide receivers expertise can't possibly be the motivating factor for his hiring. If it makes sense to shift him elsewhere he could end up as the linebackers coach, which would mollify the general desire to keep Campbell around.
Playing devil's advocate, though: how hard is it to coach wide receivers? They have to run routes correctly and make a few hot reads, but other than that it's catch-run-go. Linebackers, on the other hand, have to read all sorts of things as quickly as possible, blitz, cover, and etc etc. A moment's hesitation and you get Obi Ezeh this year: promising but mostly ineffective. Szabo's two-year stint at LB coach saw a remarkable upturn in productivity from the 2006 unit and then mediocre-at-best play in 2007, though there's plenty of evidence (recruting JUCO Austin Panter, starting redshirt freshman who-dat Ezeh) that whatever problems the unit had were not on Szabo's shoulders. It seems if you're going to have a spot on the staff for a meh technical coach who can recruit, it would be WR.
I think I still prefer Campbell, but Dews seems a fast riser -- a I-AA school to the MAC to the Mountain West to WVU in five years -- and I don't think Rodriguez will be made or broken by his choice of wide receivers coaches.
Assuming that the ESPN report is right, that leaves Rodriguez with the vast bulk of his WVU staff, everyone except Casteel, Stewart, and Kirelavich. Fred Jackson will fill Stewart's spot as a generic offensive assistant; Steve Stripling seems a logical choice for the DL spot. Defensive coordinator remains up in the air. Dean Hood from Wake Forest remains a guess based on deduction without tangible support. John Tenuta is out there, but will demand a hefty salary and is most likely ticketed for LSU.
Lots of news, so a special weekend UV.
Ohhhhh, C-YA. This is the time of year when various persons announce they're heading to the NFL, and the preliminary news is pretty good for Michigan fans. Michigan State WR Devin Thomas and Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall are gone. Also gone is Indiana WR James Hardy, though Michigan doesn't play IU next year.
And then there's an ESPN report that Mario Manningham is staying in school. This is just a TV thing -- no article yet -- and ESPN hasn't been rock solid about Michigan football in recent weeks, but that's still encouraging. Maybe he got a second-round grade back after a season of ups and downs?
Inverse C-YA. NJ S Brandon Smith committed to Michigan at the Army All-American game. Smith is a mid-four star who started off in the top 100 most places, but has steadily dropped as the year's progressed. Reports on him were mixed at the AA bowl practices.
Some inverse, some conventional C-YA. The latest on the assistants situation from WVU:
Defensively, West Virginia is pretty much set. Defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel agreed on Friday to stay with Stewart and the Mountaineers, and that was a huge save for the newly named head coach. Defensive line coach Bill Kirelawich is also staying on board and Stewart hopes and thinks he can retain safeties coach Bruce Tall, although Tall isn't expected to give him a definite answer until today. Only secondary coach and recruiting coordinator Tony Gibson has been lost.
Offensively, though, the only coach remaining is first-year wide receivers coach Tony Dews. Offensive coordinator Calvin Magee planned to join former coach Rich Rodriguez at Michigan right from the start, while quarterbacks coach Rod Smith and Greg Frey made their decisions Friday to also join Rodriguez.
The Mountaineers also figure to lose much of the strength and conditioning staff, including strength coach Mike Barwis and skill development coach Chris Allen. They are also expected to inform Stewart of their final decisions today and Stewart fully expects them to be leaving.
Differences from yesterday:
- Casteel officially staying
- Dews officially staying
- Tall still waiting
- Barwis and his S&C staff now strongly expected to go to Michigan.
Would have liked to get Casteel, but other than his decision to stay that falls out just about perfectly for Michigan fans hoping to see Stripling and Campbell retained. Michigan now has a sizable hole to fill at defensive coordinator; as mentioned yesterday, Wake Forest's Dean Hood seems like a natural fit except for his expertise as a secondary coach. If Rodriguez knows he can get Hood maybe it would be best to leave Tall at WVU and start looking for a linebackers coach.
Five West Virginia assistant coaches, including assistant head coach/offensive coordinator Calvin McGee, are headed to Michigan to follow former Mountaineers' coach Rich Rodriguez, according to a person briefed on the decision.
The five are McGee, offensive line coach Greg Frey, quarterbacks coach Rod Smith, safeties coach Bruce Tall and defensive backs coach Tony Gibson. Strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis is also headed to Michigan.
No indication yet from DC Jeff Casteel or WRs coach Tony Dews. If Casteel -- still "weighing his options" according to the article -- decides to stay, the hot name on the internets is Wake Forest DC Dean Hood, who was Rodriguez's DC at NAIA Glenville State way back in the day and the guy Casteel learned the 3-3-5 from. One complication: Hood doubles as Wake's secondary coach. That would make for a crowded situation there with Tall, WVU's safeties coach, apparently on his way and Tony Gibson already at Michigan; there would be a significant void at linebacker.
I kind of hope Dews decides to stay at WVU, as that could (should?) lead to Soup Campbell's rehiring and the only complaints about Michigan wide receivers over the past decade or so have been along the lines of "arrrgh, why doesn't our bionic devastator catch literally everything?"
Update: All kinds of contradictory stuff flying around now; the Michigan AD has confirmed both Magee and Gibson, though.
Definitely coming: This morning, WVU AD Ed Pastilong told something called a Hoppy Kercheval that QB coach Rod Smith and OL coach Greg Frey were leaving for Michigan. That's as official as it gets.
"Expected" to come: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says Rodriguez has locked down two of the three main targets:
In addition to the expected exit of assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee, who attended Rodriguez's introductory news conference Dec. 17 and then returned to help the Mountaineers upset Oklahoma, 48-28, in the Fiesta Bowl, the entire weightlifting staff and at least one other offensive assistant are poised to go, too.
Strength and conditioning director Mike Barwis, considered critical to the Mountaineers' rise to a Top 10 program, is expected to take director of skill development Chris Allen plus assistant strength coaches Parker Whitman and Kenato Tamura to Michigan.
The article says DC Jeff Casteel and safeties coach Bruce Tall are on the fence.
Er... wait one second on Barwis. The local Morgantown paper is subscriber-only, but various WVU message boards are reporting an article in it today with this quote:
"I'd love to stay," Barwis said. "I think West Virginia is in a great situation as far as where the program is. I love the state, it's where my wife's from and I'd love to be there next year.
"I think this is the best thing that could have happened to the program. Coach Stew is a man who's a proven leader, the kids respect him, coaching staff respects him, I'm happy for him and his family."
Some WVU fans celebrate this as "Barwis staying!" while others note that doesn't sound concrete, which it doesn't; there are further people saying that the article was definitive. Not sure which article is more current.
Not coming: At least one offensive assistant yet to be determined, TEs/special teams coach Bill Stewart, and DL coach Bill Kirelavich.
Status as of now:
|Head Coach||Rich Rodriguez||Will be taped to state capitol building if he ever returns to WVU; pretty solid.|
|OC||Mike Magee||Came with RR to introductory presser, mentioned in Post-Gazette article; very solid.|
|QBs||Rod Smith||WVU AD said so; 100%.|
|RBs(?)||Fred Jackson||Obviously on the staff, but some consternation about where, exactly, he'll coach as Magee did RBs at WVU. Magee was a TE in his playing days and has coached the postion before; maybe they'll move his responsibilities with Stewart playing Bobby Williams at WVU. Think he'll stay at RB.|
|WRs||Tony Dews? Soup Campbell?||No idea. Dews may be in line for a promotion if he stays and seems amongst the more interested in the idea; Campbell has put out a steady stream of NFLers.|
|OL||Greg Frey||Like Smith, 100%|
|DC||Jeff Casteel||English is gone to Louisville and Rodriguez has said he would like to import the 3-3-5 that Casteel's developed; he would be the guy for the job. Reportedly considering an offer to stay at WVU, though. Alternative: Tenuta? Doubtful.|
|DL||Steve Stripling(?)||It won't be the WVU guy, so this is an obvious spot to hire one of the better-respected members of the Michigan staff back for some extra continuity.|
|LBs||?||Casteel also coaches linebackers, so if he comes that will be squared away. If he doesn't this is likely to be an outside hire.|
|CBs||Tony Gibson||Gibson has been employed by Michigan since the introductory press conference.|
|Safeties||Bruce Tall||Rodriguez wants Tall on his Michigan staff, though he is reportedly on the fence about whether to stay or go. Like Dews, could be looking at a promotion if his coordinator goes and he stays.|
|Special Teams(?)||?||If Casteel comes and coaches the linebackers and Jackson is shifted to WRs -- why they would do this, I don't know -- and Magee continues coaching the RBs, Michigan can blow a spot on an exotic like a TE/Special teams coach; more likely, IMO, is that there's a reshuffling and there's no specific special teams coach unless the guy who's just doing safeties picks up the responsibilities.|
Okay. Yesterday the Blade started a kerfuffle about a potential Mallett transfer; the Freep then shot that down by talking to his mom. Now two competing stories, one a sort of back off -- welcome to the club -- from the Blade entitled "UM's Mallett Weighs Transfer":
Michigan associate athletic director Bruce Madej said yesterday no paperwork has come across his desk about Mallett's transfer and that as far as he knows, Mallett is still enrolled at Michigan.
All that sounds well and good, but is strictly above-board stuff from athletic department members at both schools and is likely to be boilerplate. Angelique Chengelis, on the other hand:
As has been expected, quarterback Ryan Mallett is seriously leaning toward leaving Michigan after one season, according to sources close to the program. ... "I would be dumbfounded" if Mallett didn't transfer, one source said Thursday night.
Loud noises, indeed. I have nothing on this save one report from someone at the Citrus who talked with a person connected enough to predict a couple of Michigan's trick plays. Said person indicated that Mallett was outta heeeeere like Doug.
Chengelis is connected, the Blade had what seemed like an independent report, and all the Mallett-could-stay stuff seems to be phrased like "well... no officially official decision has been officially reached." IMO: gone.