landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
Mailbag: Unbalanced Classes, Hockey vs Basketball, Further Hockey Expansion, Defensive Coach Turnover
If you're doing a mailbag any time soon, a potential question: does all the defensive coaching turnover dampen your expectations for the defense? Having three new coaches, including a new DC, has to impose some kind of transition cost, right? It would be frustrating to have what might be an excellent defense undermined by coaching changes.
On the whole, no. For one, while Chris Partridge is a new coach he's replacing John Baxter, who did not work with last year's D. There are only two guys being replaced. Losing Greg Jackson is a blow, as by all reports the players loved him. The secondary's performance last year was a major step forward from everybody—even Peppers, who we had not really seen before, developed over the course of the season. It's likely that Jackson is very good at his job, and you always hate to lose a guy like that after just one year.
I have zero concerns about replacing DJ Durkin with Don Brown. Durkin's defense last year was very good until it collapsed late, and while part of that was on Glasgow's injury it was very frustrating watching Michigan play a spread option team with a safety lined up 18 yards off the LOS. You can't do that when the opposition has an 11-on-11 run game, and Michigan found that out the hard way. Since that was a thing that even a blogger was warning about…
So it's up to Michigan: ride with what got you here and try to hold up, or go to more of a zone based look in an attempt to replicate what just happened [against MSU]. The bet here is that Michigan enters with the latter in their pocket but tries to go toe to toe, combating zone with the addition of a safety to the end of the LOS and the corresponding blitz.
…and Michigan emphatically had nothing in their back pocket in the second half, I'm happy to see Durkin at Maryland. He could be a great coach, sure. He could be a guy who hung on to Will Muschamp's coattails and got exposed by Urban Meyer.
Meanwhile Brown has an excellent track record:
Bolded years are Don Brown; others are there for comparison. YPP is raw yards per play. FEI and S&P+ are advanced metrics that attempt to take schedule strength and various other factors into account.
It is possible that there's a settling-in period where Brown's D isn't as effective. The data don't show anything conclusive about that, with Maryland and UConn both getting significantly better in advanced metrics in year one despite a drop in yards per play. Meanwhile last year Michigan's defense was very good despite being in its first year of a new system.
Michigan can't get significantly better in advanced metrics and should expect a backslide just from regression to the mean, so I won't be judging Brown on how he does relative to last year's D… except against Ohio State. The absolute best news of the offseason to me is that Don Brown spent his time at Michigan's coaching clinic ranting about run defense…
Coach Brown believes that it all starts with run defense, “Check our record, 4 out of the last 5 years, nobody runs the ball. I don’t give a crap what I have to do, we’re going to stop the run.” Don Brown’s defenses finished #2 in 2011 (UCONN), #3 in 2012 (UCONN), #2 in 2014 (Boston College) and #1 in 2015 (Boston College) in run defense.
…and detailing the varied and intricate responses he's developed to zone read including inverted veer or "power read," as coaches seem to be calling it.
The result of last year's Game (and the one before that, and the one before that, and the one before that) cried out for a defensive coordinator who is awesome at stopping a power spread attack. Don Brown looks like the ideal candidate. I was getting pretty nervous for a couple weeks there when Rivals kept bringing up NFL guys—exactly the wrong kind of candidate for the biggest game on the schedule—and couldn't be happier with the way things worked out.
I'll be keeping a wary eye on the developments in the secondary but at least Brian Smith is a DB by trade and a DB coach until he was shoehorned in at linebacker a year ago; this isn't going back to Roy Manning, lifetime LB, as a CB coach. As far as the DC trade goes, I give it an A++++++.
[After THE JUMP: Jim Delany and the satellite camps, college hockey realignment stuff, hockey and basketball expectations.]
"I think spring went really well for us. I think the goal was to improve as a team. I think we definitely did that in all areas, so we're just looking to build off that this offseason, get a little stronger, get some of these player-led practices and continue to build chemistry with each other and understand the offense and the defense a little bit better so we can hit the ground rolling come camp."
Jim just talked a little bit about Drake Johnson and the accident yesterday. I was wondering whether you've had a chance to speak to him and what are his spirits like right now?
"I haven't had a chance to speak with him directly or anything but I saw him post a snapchat yesterday and he seems to be in good spirits and everything like that. I'm sure just knowing the kind of guy Drake is he'll come out of this pretty strong."
Do you get a sense that the Big Ten or at least the East division is the most balanced it's been in 2016 as it's been in your career?
"You know, I haven't really been concerning myself too much with that. Really I'm just focusing on what we can do as a team to make our team as good as possible, and there's a lot of great teams in the Big Ten and in the country. What we've just got to focus on is not really what other people are doing but how can we make ourselves the best team that we possibly can be. So yeah, there's some very talented teams out there and we're going to work really hard to try to give ourselves the best chance when we come up against some of these great teams."
How confident are you that this is the best Michigan team that you've been on?
"I'm very confident in that. I think we have the talent, but really I say I'm confident because we have a mentality of just hard work and preparation and I think we've got great leadership from our coaches and from our players, so I think that's really where the confidence comes from."
I was just wondering not just you but Tyrone [Wheatley Jr.] and Ian [Bunting] were making some plays in the spring game as well. Just your impression of the guys behind you at your position group. You guys are pretty loaded at tight end.
"Absolutely, absolutely, and I think we've got a really talented group from top to bottom. And we've got a lot of great guys that are hungry, hungry looking for spots, looking for roles and just really hungry to learn and get better and I think that's a recipe for success right there. So, we've got a lot of guys that can do a bunch of different things. You know, wherever the role is for some guys it's going to go to whoever's the best at that specific role so guys are hungry and they're working hard to find a spot this fall."
In the past couple days you've really let your voice be heard on social media in the wake of the satellite camp decision. Why is it important for yourself and your teammates and other athletes to put your voice out there and state an opinion on this?
"Because I think sometimes we can get lost a little bit, but we do have a voice. We are, the athletes are, one of the driving forces that gets the NCAA to run. Sometimes I feel like we aren't heard as much as possible, especially with these satellite camps. I think it's stripping the opportunity from a lot of young kids that don't have the chance to get out there and see some of these programs and get one-on-one coaching with some of these coaches across the country. So, you know, I really looked at it as who is really winning in this situation? How does the student—if the NCAA is so much about [being] for the student-athletes where does the student-athlete win in this? That was my biggest question and I'm still looking for an answer for that one."
It seems like you and Jourdan [Lewis] and maybe some other guys are speaking out on topics a little bit more whether it's twitter or other places. Do you think part of that is you guys sort of adopting the personality and culture that coach Harbaugh brings in the way he addresses issues and speaks his mind?
"I think that's definitely part of it. Coach Harbaugh is our head coach and our leader so we're going to follow him but also this is moreso—this is something personal. I know a lot of guys on our team that participated in some of these camps and these camps opened up doors for them, some of their friends, some of my friends where you start taking this away…it's more personal. Like I said, we do have a voice and we want to speak out and make these changes positive, make changes in a positive way, so we can help these young recruits and young student-athletes down the line."
On that note of the camps, you as a player, your teammates, what's you guys' reaction when you see the claims that Jim Harbaugh has hijacked college football, that he's using these camps as a promo tool and not doing what the camps are designed for. How do you guys react to that negative kind of attacks on him?
"Yeah, honestly I think that's absolutely bizarre and there's no factual—there's no facts to back that claim up whatsoever. I can tell you from being a player of coach Harbaugh he is always looking for ways to help us out both as football players, as students, and as young men and he's always looking for ways—and he wasn't breaking any rules. He was out here trying to help this program but also help these student-athletes and help some of these smaller colleges.
"So, it's bigger than what we're doing here at Michigan with the ban on satellite camps. It's bigger than what's going on. It's really…we're looking to help student-athletes get their name out there and get recruited, and when you strip them of this opportunity it kind of sits [not] well. And maybe that's where some of the blame is being pushed. I don't know. This is a tough situation and I hope they can figure it out."
Coach, what are your thoughts on Lovie Smith taking over at Illinois?
"Uh, I think it's positive for the Big Ten, for college football. The level of competition I look forward to elevating- fair, honest, healthy competition and a tremendous football man."
What are the issues with going from the NFL to college?
"I can't say that there is any issue with it."
There was a Michigan release this morning indicating that Drake Johnson was injured in an accident and I was hoping you could explain what happened, and can you confirm the widespread rumor/speculation that he was hit by a forklift in the track building?
"I was with the family last night and I'll let them comment on all the specifics. Better, I think, coming from Drake or his family, but he's doing well. I can tell you this, it would have killed a lesser man but he is blue twisted steel and very flexible. Amazing. But, you know, it's one of those miraculous things and he is doing well. As to be expected, yeah."
I was wondering what his prognosis is, if you can share that, and will this affect his football future?
"To the best that I know, I'm not a doctor, but talking to him a week or two or three at the most. So it's…it's a miracle right up there with Easter. Just thanking God. Thank God that he's alright. That's my thoughts on it."
We didn't talk to you after the spring game. Did you guys go into summertime here with a guy leading at the quarterback spot or is it still open?
"There's so much that can happen over the summer in terms of improvements that you expect all of our quarterbacks to make, and we'll want to gauge that when we come back to start practice in August as to who made the greatest amount of strides in those four months so have not decided yet."
Was there one guy who had a better camp than the others?
"I haven't decided that yet."
Your decision to speak over at Paramus Catholic obviously created a lot of headlines. Why did that appeal to you?
"Has it created a lot of headlines?"
It has, yeah. In our parts it has.
"So why? I was asked. I didn't know that, but why I said I would agree to speaking as the commencement speaker?"
Yeah. Why did it appeal to you?
"I think the biggest thing was because I was asked."
Obviously it creates a unique situation with--
"I think that was the most appealing thing, that they wanted me to do it and I was asked to do it. My default is usually 'yes' when asked to do things."
Do you think it creates a unique situation to actually come into Rutgers' backyard and actually speak at a rival school?
"You said 'obviously' it does. I don't agree that that's obvious, no."
I think it's fair to say that there's many coaches in college football who would like to see satellite camps continued versus discontinued. As this goes to the board of directors there's still an opportunity to have the decision reversed as it may be. I'm wondering what plans you may have to be involved in mustering an effort among coaches to get this looked at a little bit more?
"Yeah, right. I think we're all looking at that. I do agree that there are a lot of coaches—most all coaches—there's always an urgency to help the youngsters and their own programs and in this case the spirit of football.
"Really I'm taking those words from Warde Manuel, our athletic director. I thought he framed it extremely well when he talked on the subject yesterday and I think it's a good message for everybody here in our athletic department and our sport here at the University of Michigan. As he said, we're going to continue to put more thought into it and then have a course of action. I'm proud that he's taken a lead in that on that topic.
"We all believe—we believe here it's beneficial, you know. Like Warde said, this is exactly the way he said it, there's always an urgency to help kids, our program, and in this case the sport of football. I would refer you to some of his comments because I think they're spot on."
With the satellite camps, I know your opinion on it so I won't ask about that but something that's interesting for me is the coaching side of it, banning coaches from being able to coach at other camps. I know at your high school camps you invite coaches from smaller programs or smaller conferences. What's your opinion on that? To me it seems like it eliminates opportunity for those smaller coaches to network and build relationships with guys like you and other bigger coaches to build their careers up and have opportunities for them to come in and show you guys that they can coach too. Do you have an opinion on that, how it could affect those coaches?
"Yes. I mean, as I said the other day, I think it affects thousands and thousands and thousands of people. Some people have scoffed at that but it's at least thousands and thousands and you bring up a good point. There's a collegial gesture that goes on when you're working a camp and you have coaches from all backgrounds—high school, college, professional—we get together and we talk about the sport of football and trends and best practices.
"That took place—Pat Fitzgerald was here last year at our camp. It was a tremendous, tremendous learning experience for us being around him. And Pete Lembo was here. There was was many colleges represented. Hundreds of coaches were here and that's just at our school. Yeah, that's another part of the debate."
Just another day in the life.
Jim Harbaugh got drenched with water onstage at Migos. pic.twitter.com/WnX0p0rJSA
— Rachel Premack (@rrpre) April 14, 2016
One of our photographers wrote a book. You've probably seen Bill Rapai's hockey photos around these parts. If you like those you'll no doubt love his new book, which is about invasive species in the Great Lakes. For some reason it has a picture of an SEC coach reacting to Harbaugh's latest antics on the cover. Bill on the contents:
It’s called Lake Invaders: Invasive species and the battle for the future of the Great Lakes and it explains how these little beasties got here, the damage they are doing, how they might be controlled, and why you should care. (Yes, you should care.) There’s even a chapter on everybody’s favorite invasives, the Asian carps.
It's available on Amazon for anyone who's interested.
DRAKE JOHNSON GOT RUN OVER BY A FORKLIFT!? Yes. He is apparently fine afterwards, if 1) very bruised up and 2) understandably pissed off.
Harbaugh says Drake Johnson's injury is short-term, one to three weeks. Said it's a miracle right up there with Easter.
— Adam Schnepp (@aeschnepp) April 14, 2016
Do not run people over in forklifts, people. I shouldn't have to tell you this.
Tick tock the hot takes don't stop. All it took was for Jim Harbaugh to say some pointedly critical, but true, things for people to lose their minds about the dude. NJ.com columnist Steve Politi has been a reliable source of humor ever since that "Jim Harbaugh may be flashy, but Kyle Flood is real" column, and he is undeterred by being as wrong as humanly possible about that. His reaction to Man Invited To Give Speech may even top his earlier opus:
Steve Politi, a columnist for The Star-Ledger and NJ.com, said Paramus Catholic should be ashamed for having Harbaugh give the speech. …
"The big problem here is Paramus Catholic president Jim Vail who, in announcing his decision to give an out-of-state football coach a free infomercial at his school, called Harbaugh a great leader and educator. Come on, Harbaugh speaking to your students is as much a recruiting advantage for your football program as it is for Harbaugh at Michigan."
I love all these accusations that PEOPLE might be DOING THEIR JOBS WELL. While there's no doubt an element of publicity and recruiting on both ends, Jim Harbaugh is also a very interesting and successful person who might want to give people some guidance. And he's sure as hell going to be more interesting than whoever my high school graduation speaker was. I have no idea if there even was one. Chris Ash is openly envious, and he's real, so…
This undercurrent of "wait a second… wait just a minute here! I see what you're doing! You are trying to make your football team good!" is a never-ending source of entertaining spittle these days. Remember that Alabama dude who clutched his pearls and fell over because Michigan's satellite camp at Prattville was really about recruiting? This is just the latest episode. Here's Mike Florio accusing Harbaugh of the blazingly obvious:
If we’re going to pull back the curtain on why the SEC and ACC coaches wanted to keep Harbaugh out of their backyards, it’s only fair to pull back the curtain on why Harbaugh wants to frolic in them. Although Rosenberg does his best to defend the satellite camp process by baking the concept into the apple pie of American dream chasing, it’s obvious that the camps had become at least in part a pretext for recruiting the best players in a setting that, from the perspective of a high school kid, doesn’t feel like recruiting. It all leads to a more organic, authentic, and visceral bond.
That's the point! Also it is good! We have reached the point in this dumb conversation where people are accusing Jim Harbaugh of trying to have a real relationship with the people he recruits. I feel like I am going crazy here.
Yes, e-goons of the world, people have motives. When they pursue those motives within the rules and without negatively impacting anyone, pointing at them and screaming "YOU ARE PURSUING YOUR GOALS" is literally the dumbest argument possible.
I mean, yeah, get on Harbaugh for the various decommits last year. That's a legit criticism. This stuff is moron central.
Shots fired. I assume you've all seen the Harbombing of the satellite camp decision in SI. While Harbaugh talking to a dude who tried to sabotage the program with bogus allegations of NCAA violations is a frequent irritation, I'll take it as long as he's willing to say the things that are true in public:
Says Harbaugh: "You've got a guy sitting in a big house, making $5 million a year, saying he does not want to sacrifice his time. That is not a kindred spirit to me. What most of these coaches are saying is they don't want to work harder."
Hugh Freeze responded to this with the time-tested retort of the smarmy gasbag: muh families.
"I'll never apologize for wanting to be a father and a husband," Freeze said when asked about vacation time. "I miss enough volleyball games (and other things), that is a priority for me. ... I think we work very hard, I don't think working hard is an issue. If you're asking me if I want to add more nights away from my wife and kids, I do not. That window is closing for me to be a husband and a father and I think the kids that play in our system need to see me in that role an awful lot."
When someone talks about being a family man in this way they are always attempting to shut down criticism by being holier than thou. See: Dave Brandon's "this hurts my family" talk on his last-ditch media spree after the Shane Morris incident. It also blows by a point: if you don't want to do them, don't do them. Nobody's making you. You are in fact making the demands.
Freeze then doubled down on the smarm by criticizing Harbaugh for being right, but in public:
Freeze on Harbaugh: "We're probably not a kindred spirit in terms of making comments about other coaches in public forums like he has done."
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) April 13, 2016
Along with being recursively hypocritical, this is an admission that Harbaugh is correct but also mean. I like mean.
Elsewhere in shots fired. High school coaches are just as fired up about the ban:
"Realistically, I shouldn't have been surprised." said John Ford, the head coach at Roswell High School, which is located north of Atlanta. "The NCAA works in opposition to what benefits young kids and student athletes. They work to protect the few as opposed to protecting and promoting the many. The hypocrisy is pretty well known." …
"I've been doing this for 15 years and I know it's really, really helpful for kids at these camps," [Toby] Foreman said. "It makes it extremely difficult, and I personally don't think the NCAA has kids interests at heart. You're almost punishing people for being proactive. Go out and recruit harder. Quit being lazy."
I wonder if the pushback on this is going to be sufficient to torpedo the rule change here. These days a lawsuit-stricken NCAA is very sensitive about public relations, and there are a ton of people on the warpath about this. It is really rare to see guys with skin in the game come out with these kind of statements, and the condemnation for the rule change has been near-universal. The only people sticking up for it are guys like Tony Barnhart who are more or less bought and paid for by the SEC and a less-than-lucid Dennis Dodd.
Tommy Tuberville, for one, thinks that the ban will not stand.
Elsewhere in how Freeze gets work done. Interesting little glimpse inside the sausage factory Freeze is running at Ole Miss from a doofus with money:
An Ocean Springs businessman claimed to have offered his guest house to unnamed college football players rent-free, only to later amend his story. But a source with knowledge of the situation said Scott Walker’s neighbors were told by the renters they paid for a two-night stay at his home last weekend.
Renting his home on a short-term basis would be a violation of local ordinances, and when first contacted by the Mississippi Press Walker said it was “four university players” who were “absolutely not paying” to stay in his guest house.
That raised red flags, because a booster (Walker is an Ole Miss grad and fan) offering free or reduced rent is a clear-cut NCAA violation.
Ole Miss cheats. Hardcore, all the time. That's how a nobody high school coach with one year at Arkansas State who arrives at a school with a fanbase that mostly still wants a plantation owner as their mascot and zero success in the past 50 years starts recruiting five-stars. I'm resigned to the fact that this will happen forever, and that the correct solution is to let people pay the players without repercussions.
But you run the cheatingest program in the country and you get sanctimonious about your free time? Harbaugh's just trying to level the playing field out a little bit here. Freeze can take his vacations and come back knowing that an Ole Miss offer has thousands of dollars behind it that a Michigan one doesn't.
That solution could be on the horizon. Via Get the Picture, this is a potentially huge move towards an Olympic model of amateurism:
Big East commissioner Val Ackerman told SI Now’s Maggie Gray on Friday that the NCAA is reconsidering allowing student athletes to sign endorsement deals.
Under the current rules, student athletes may not be paid for the use of their image or likeness or they would forfeit their amateur status and their collegiate eligibility could be affected. When Gray asked Ackerman why students shouldn’t be able to capitalize on the value they bring to their university, Ackerman responded that the NCAA is considering changing that rule.
“That’s one that’s actually under consideration I believe by the NCAA,” Ackerman said. “It’s actually a time right now where student athlete interests are being closely examined. I don’t have an answer for you on that one today but I will say that and a number of other topics are under review, and I think rightly by the NCAA and it’s very possible that over the course of the next year or two as these these ideas work their way through the legislative system you could see changes.”
In the next year or two! As always I will remind you that even if you don't like the idea of players getting paid directly by the university, opening up outside compensation is a very good thing when you command a money cannon like Michigan does.
Warde Manuel sticks up for his guy. Good to see that Manuel isn't shying away from the fight either:
“People say this is Jim Harbaugh, he wants to do it this way,” Manuel told the Free Press today. “No. This is a rule that has been allowable for a long time. With all due respect to … questions about not being able to recruit (during the NCAA quiet period), all that stuff was there before, and people did it. Now it’s no good? Some kind of way, it’s bad for the game? It’s crazy.”
That is direct and devoid of hand-waving CYA business speak, so bully for that.
Elsewhere in laziness. Iowa DE Drew Ott will not get a fifth year after a midseason injury. That's not much of a surprise since he played in six games a year ago and the NCAA does not budge on injury redshirts if you've played more than 30% of a season. The timing of the announcement, however, has irritated many since Ott cannot enter the NFL draft proper and will have to go the supplemental route. Why did this come so late? It's not on the NCAA:
In fairness to the NCAA, it does seem like the lengthiest delays in this entire ordeal were not their end -- it sounds like Ott's case wasn't even sent to the NCAA bodies that rule on this matter until late February. His case was with Big Ten authorities until that point. What took the Big Ten so long? Good question -- and one that neither Ott nor Kirk Ferentz had an answer for during their press conference earlier today. So perhaps our ire at the glacial pace of the decision-making in this situation should be directed at Jim Delany & Co. rather than the NCAA folks.
That is especially odd since Mario Ojemudia suffered a similarly ill-timed injury and found out he would not get an exception in December.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with MSU's attempt to get sixth years for three players, all of whom appear to have taken voluntary redshirts. MSU keeps telling people they'll be back but the NCAA is very strict about sixth years; going to be tough to come up with sufficient documentation about an injury when these guys have bios declaring they were scout team player of the week.
This is spring ball. There are guys on the field who are never going to play, there are guys on the field who are going to play who not playing very well, and the coaches, whom I haven't spoken to, are not going to show the really juicy stuff in a public scrimmage. Therefore all of this is written in very light sand.
But I think…I think I saw a cool variation of a thing that's all over Don Brown's 2013 playbook, and if you'll bear with me and a lot of asterisks we might learn a thing about how Michigan's personnel fits the stuff we've been talking about in the Dude Glossary.
So late in the spring game the Blue team ran a backside power play and got stuffed. Some of that was good play by the defense, some of that bad play by the offense. But the play design itself appeared to illustrate an example of a "Bear"-like* defense they can get into any time they're in 3rd and short or near the goal line, and then change up at the line based on what the offense shows.
* [It's not a real Bear because the backside DE is not in a 3-tech. Speaking of the Bear, JeepinBen wrote a thing on Buddy Ryan's 46 Defense when it appeared in Hoke/Mattison's first year if you want a refresher on that)]
THE PERSONNEL: BUTKUS, TECHNICALLY
"Butkus" is the one I described where they trade some middle meat on the line for extra upfield rush. BC would usually use this formation for a 46 Bear defense. I mentioned at the time that Michigan's NTs work just fine as the gap-attacking meatheads the Bear likes, and here Maurice Hurst is indeed the tackle. The "Butkus"—a hybrid specialty position that's meant to be a DE/OLB (Jake Ryan-esque player), is Alex Kaminski, who is 5'10/215 (the standup guy hanging off the edge at the top of the line above).
As for the rest, the End (E) is Chase Winovich, the Will (W) is Mike McCray, the Mike (M) is walk-on Cheyenn Robertson, the free safety (F) is Dymonte, the Anchor (A) is walk-on Garret Miller, the Rover (R) is Tyree Kinnel, and the Sam (S) is Lawrence Marshall.
If you said "huh?" at the last bit, yeah Marshall is a defensive end. In this formation that's not so important since he, like the Butkus, is in there primarily to be an edge-rusher/-setter. Forget that "Sam" is a "linebacker" and instead think about Will Gholston lining up outside tight ends and getting unblocked sacks.
Also remember Peppers is going to be somewhere on that map this year, and it's my guess from the way Brown set this up that the somewhere will be Butkus, i.e. the place they've got Alex Kaminski.
Anyway if you're counting that's really four DL who are the same as the white team's base DL, three linebackers who were the base linebackers, and the same four defensive backs. In other words Brown didn't take his 4-3 personnel off the field. He did, however, put them in places that emphasized different skills. I bet that will be a regular feature of this year's defense.
[After the jump: how they attack (I think) and how it works (I'm pretty sure)]
|Mckeesport, PA – 5'11", 205|
|Scout||4*, #273 overall
|Rivals||3*, NR overall
#26 S, #10 PA
|ESPN||3*, NR overall,
#40 S, #13 PA
|24/7||4*, #313 overall
#15 S, #11 PA
|Other Suitors||PSU, Pitt, UCLA, VT, BC, MSU, Neb|
|YMRMFSPA||Mortal Jabrill Peppers|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Hello post from me.|
|Notes||Twitter. Pronounced "Khaleek".|
Ace put together a Semper Fi highlight reel:
Safeties go first in this series and Khaleke Hudson just committed January 27th, so this isn't going to be much different than Hudson's Hello post. I even authored that one since Ace was getting buried, so there won't even be a slight variation on takes here. The song is the same.
However, since Khaleke Hudson's song is hyperviolence it's worth revisiting. If you've followed this blog, like, at all over the past few months you're aware that we are slightly more enthused about Hudson than we are about Rashan Gary. Hudson is a short-area burst player with terrific balance, evil intent, missile-like attributes, and the smarts to be in the right place to make good on the former qualities. I've found no better description than this from opposing coach John Ruane:
"He is the best combination of strength, speed and burst I've seen in a long time," said Ruane. "Every tackle, run and block is violent with him. He will be playing on Sundays someday. And I'm happy he's graduating."
(Ruane offered that quote to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette when Hudson won their player of the year award—Steve Breaston is a previous recipient.) Local scout Joe Butler comes in second:
“He's a vicious hitter, a knockdown hitter,” Metro Index scouting director Joe Butler said. “He can play right away. He's ready. He's got everything going for him, all the physical tools and ball skills to make plays.”
At Mckeesport Hudson did everything possible for a player his size, playing RB, H-back, S, LB, KR, PR, a little WR, and even occasionally flicking passes on trick plays. His highlight film above is his collected effort in all of those departments plus his blocking, which appears to be a never-ending series of rim-rattling dunks on people. Highlight films can lie, but once they hit a tightly-edited 15 minutes they are far less likely to. And on top of that we saw him in the Semper Fi game, where he collected seven tackles, two forced fumbles, and four PBUs in about half a game after ripping up practice on both sides of the ball. Hudson is a FOOTBALL (period) PLAYER (period), as they say. Also he does rad tricks.
— Khaleke Hudson2⃣1⃣ (@NeverDone_21) May 25, 2015
Hudson got my attention when I turned on the Semper Fi game, but if I'd been paying attention in the run-up to it I would have noticed that he was getting an inordinate amount of praise from the people covering it. 247 has a thing where they pick five guys on each side of the ball on each day of an all-star game's practice; on day two Hudson featured on both lists. On defense he looked "very fluid in coverage"; on offense his performance at running back was dubbed "special" by the coaches. Meanwhile he was the top guy on defense on D on day one and oh hey look Peppers resemblance:
With his compact physique, Hudson looks like the hybrid linebacker/strong safeties that are starting to become very popular as teams move to more sub-package schemes to combat spread attacks.
247 was not alone, as Scout dubbed him the best safety and the best running back at the game:
Khaleke Hudson was the best overall player on the East squad. He was the best safety, and also the best running back.
…as a running back he had a knack for finding the holes with fantastic vision, then using his explosive burst to get through it in a hurry. He had a comfort to him at running back and could feel his way in and out of spots and holes.
Hudson is a tough, physical safety who hits hard. … He's also a plus athlete who runs well and looks very comfortable playing in space.
Scout also brought the Peppers resemblance to the table…
…a tough, physical safety who loves to hit. At 6-1, 200 pounds, Hudson has a strong, powerful build and is a prototype downhill safety who can fly off the hash in run support.
Hudson football played his way to nearly 3000 football rushing yards and 50 football touchdowns at 10 yards a pop over the last two years of his high school career while playing full-time on defense, where he is likely better. If this reminds you of a certain someone, well, yeah. Hudson:
"I know Michigan has said that I could play both sides. They actually think I could be very similar to Jabrill Peppers."
There is a 5'8" safety who runs a 4.9 in Kansas somewhere who was told the same thing by Michigan, but with Hudson it's easy to believe they mean it.
So why did it take that breakout Semper Fi performance to get on the radar with recruiting sites? I don't know. His junior tape is another impressive 15 minutes; Mckeesport is a big school just outside of Pittsburgh and so should have a solid competition level. But for whatever reason nobody was particularly taken with Hudson until very late. Penn State infamously turned down at least one commitment from him and possibly up to three. (This site projects that PSU fans will feel exactly the same way about Hudson as Michigan fans feel about Anthony Zettel, down to the fact that it's a bad memory about a previous coach.)
Michigan didn't even offer until November, although that was because DJ Durkin was skeptical:
A couple of Michigan's staff members were in love with Hudson's junior film and were trying to get Hudson an offer earlier in the process. … as Hudson's senior film started to surface in October, those assistants were able to finally convince D.J. Durkin to sign off on a scholarship offer.
Don Brown, on the other hand, had BC throw its hat in the ring long before that.
Rivals moved to a new system that seems to have dropped various posts, but it looks like the only scouting material they had on him was from a camp just before his junior year, when Josh Helmholdt noted he "was one of the most physically impressive" DBs at a 7-on-7 camp and that his break on the football was "definitely sufficient" but could improve. From there it's radio silence until Tim Sullivan interviewed Rivals's Mid-Atlantic guy about Hudson, he said all the best things…
“The way he moves on the field is so impressive. … His athleticism is fantastic, he’s a great form tackler, but he also has really good speed, he’s just a violent player. …
“His explosiveness if going to help him blitz. His strength will help him fend off would-be blockers. In coverage, he’s going to be able to keep up with guys. Being that nickel safety, he’s not going to have to guard the biggest players, especially against running backs and underneath routes, he’s ideally suited to cover. He can give big hits coming across the middle.”
…and then justified Rivals's generic three-star ranking by citing his lack of height, which was "not major Division I material." I dunno, man. Everyone has him at 5'11", and even if that's slightly generous I'd bet he's more or less exactly the same size as Peppers. And the dude just noted that his college position is not one that will emphasize height. So that's fine. As far as reasons to downplay a recruit go, I like ones that make no sense.
In a similar vein, I mentioned in the Metellus post that ESPN's take on Hudson would engender some discussion of the particular merits of their system, because the scouting report is rapture…
…reads the play quickly and has an excellent burst to get to the spot. Very good at reading and reacting. …has the speed and quicks to cover man, especially TEs or RBs. He is very good at his zone cover responsibilities. He opens to the ball, reads into the QB and has a rapid break to the football in flight. … very quick out of his stance/pedal and flies all over the secondary and into the line of scrimmage with speed and positioning. Aggressive and physical, he is a solid tackler.
…and the ranking is that of a guy who got left behind. This was even more acute in the immediate aftermath of his commit, when Hudson was the #86(!) safety. (Somebody got in a quick re-rank just before Signing Day.) Evaluations that seem to have little relation to the ensuing rankings are not uncommon at ESPN, as it seems like they tend to fire and forget.
On the one hand, they're open-minded enough to look at Metellus seriously. On the other, sometimes Khaleke Hudson ends up ranked below guys going to Louisiana-Lafayette. I like the fact that they're very different from other rating services but you have to take the good with the bad—ESPN is mostly focused on the kind of kids who will make televised announcements and the fidelity of their rankings drops off considerably once you get past ESPN300 types. On the other hand, they tell you why they like or don't like any particular player.
What is not in doubt is that Hudson is an archetypical Harbaugh guy. A multiple-position star who is seemingly designed by man and God to punish people is exactly the kind of player Harbaugh would carve from stone if that was required of him. (Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze sits next to an untouched rock complaining that he is a father.) Lorenz:
There is a certain style of player that fits the mold you think of when you think about the type of player Jim Harbaugh wants to recruit at Michigan; Hudson to us is one of those guys in this class for them.
Brown's arrival complicates our projections for Hudson slightly since his main comparison point, Peppers, is now playing a lot of linebacker and some other stuff. How that plays out during the season is still unknown—the guess here is that it's not too different from his 2015 nickel role. If so, then Hudson slides in neatly there. He will also likely get a hard look at the more conventional safety spots. He is a more natural fit as a hybrid space player, no matter what positional label you want to slap on him.
And then there's the other side of the ball. While it's a stone-cold guarantee Jim Harbaugh flips Hudson to offense in spring practice at some point during his career, the state of the roster should mean he ends up a defensive player. Michigan has plenty of tailbacks and a worrying dearth of safeties in 2017. If Michigan moves a couple wide receivers and they catch on and everyone's really excited about them then maybe it could happen. More likely is that starting safety Hudson is a candidate to get a few offensive touches a game, a la Peppers.
I might not be averse to that. Hudson's running back film above is terrific. He's got a lot of Mike Hart in him: great balance, ability to make the Madden back juke, pile-pushing power. Consistent praise for his skills…
Excellent balance when running the ball . . . Runs behind his pads . . . Good speed . . . Quick feet . . . Good lateral quickness . . . Accelerates quickly out of cuts . . . Willing and capable blocker
…and his ability to play both the A-back and B-back in Mckeesport's flexbone (along with various defensive positions) suggest he'd be able to hack it in college even if it's not a full-time thing.
Etc.: Jourdan Lewis is impressed. Committed on the same day Denard Robinson Cook was born NO PRESSURE.
Why Mortal Jabrill Peppers? I mean, he's not Peppers. But other than not being Peppers, he's basically Peppers.
If forced to pick someone other than Peppers I'd go with former Iowa safety Bob Sanders, who carved out a near-decade in the NFL despite being 5'8" because he was the deadliest oompa-loompa.
Guru Reliability: Moderate. Healthy, but a big split. Couple of sites paid close attention to Semper Fi and bumped him. Rivals's reasoning for not doing so doesn't make sense; ESPN's ranking doesn't match their scouting.
Variance: Low. At a solid 205 already, Hudson is more or less college-sized for a HSP. He appears to be able to play a ton of positions at the same time, so he's got a high football IQ. And he is very underrated.
Ceiling: High. I mean, he's not Peppers because he can't go play boundary corner like it's nothing, but I don't see why he can't just-about-replicate Peppers as a nickel, and that's a damn good player.
General Excitement Level: Irrational. I see no way Hudson isn't a major contributor. He would have been the sleeper of the year if Scout and 247 hadn't given him four stars. It's better this way since Hudson is so obvious I wouldn't be telling you much.
Projection: He'll play this year. Michigan is probably losing their entire secondary and must blood the new generation. In addition, Hudson is obviously going to play a ton of special teams since squat missiles with nothing but nuclear destruction on their minds are useful there. He should start spotting Peppers after a few games and give him a regular rest by midseason.
If Peppers leaves for the NFL, which I think most people expect, Hudson should to slot into the hybrid space player role more or less seamlessly.
Will he play offense? Probably not for a bit. Michigan has a lot of options at tailback now. Safety and HSP are much thinner. Hudson looks like a terrific back but probably isn't the kind of athlete who will demand that you play him both ways. Maybe if he hits the top end of his potential you talk about it when he's an upperclassman.
Michigan Leads For Slaton
Five-star FL OT Tedarrell Slaton has, at previous points in his recruitment, named Michigan his leader before walking back that stance. 247's Ryan Bartow has been going around Florida getting updates on seemingly every recruit in the state; when he hit American Heritage, Slaton once again said the Wolverines are out in front:
Slaton tells Bartow that Michigan "still has the edge" for his services. This is the third time Slaton has publicly placed Michigan ahead of the competition in his recruitment. Per Bartow:
The nation’s No. 7 offensive tackle, Tedarrell Slaton, said Michigan has the edge. Slaton also said Tennessee and Miami are programs he feels are recruiting him consistently.
In an interesting twist, Slaton added that he prefers to play defensive tackle. Oddly, there aren't full-season highlights of Slaton anywhere on his Hudl page or YouTube, and the single-game reels only feature scattered snaps at DT. His positional preference may not matter much anyway; Michigan would certainly take him and worry about the rest later.
Bartow also caught up with Flanagan five-star CB Stanford Samuels, who went further in depth on the top four—consisting of Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, and Michigan—he released over the weekend:
Michigan: “I like all the NFL guys they have on staff. All the guys on that coaching staff have been there and done that. When you have that experience it makes it hard for you not to get the right coaching.”
While Samuels has Michigan connections through his former coach, Devin Bush, and the three Flanagan teammates who will be freshmen this year, it's hard to see him ending up in Ann Arbor. He plans to make a summer decision and enroll early; unless he makes it to campus before then, FSU looks like the choice.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
[This is a series reviewing last year's primary contributors]
It’s worth remembering that Zak Irvin entered the season at less than 100% after losing months of practice and workout time to a back injury. He struggled to return to form early in the season, shooting an abysmal percentage from three – no doubt due at least partially to the lingering effects of the injury. Then, just like last year, he was thrust into a prominent offensive role due to injury and had to stay on the court for nearly entire games in conference play (only Yogi Ferrell played more minutes in B1G games in each of the last two years). After LeVert’s injury, Irvin was forced into much tougher shots, much more offensive responsibility, and a critical leadership role with both seniors injured.
While there were some notable highs – Zak was the best player on the floor in wins against Purdue and Maryland, and he hit a couple huge late-game shots like the one gif’d above – there were struggles as well. Because of his low shooting percentages (over three-quarters of his shots were jump shots, which had an incredibly low eFG% of 41.9%), his efficiency numbers were dragged down, and were the worst on the team:
But, as the chart shows, Zak used more possessions in sum than any other Wolverine. While his usage rate itself wasn’t abnormally high, the sheer amount of minutes he played drives his total contributions close to what you would expect from your lead guy – or at the very least, to within the range of the most critical of your offensive pieces. As you can see, Irvin is near the bottom of the pack efficiency-wise of those types of players.
[After the JUMP, how Zak handled the alpha role]
time to make another huge Swedish flag
Michigan is now waiting on JT Compher's decision, which he says he'll make after the World Championships—USA Hockey took CCM lock stock and barrel. I'm guessing he joins his linemates in the NHL. Either way the spate of departures has answered questions about which recruits will actually be on next year's roster: all of 'em.
Bork 2.0. Michigan in fact just added draft-eligible, Paris-born Swede Gustaf Westlund:
Winning a prep 'ship, Westlund (MI) was a consistent offensive look, using speed/creativity. Screams a high ceiling w/ the puck in open ice.
— Over The Boards (@OverTheBoards) April 12, 2016
[UPDATE: Westlund's father emailed to say that Westlund is a 2017 recruit.]
The late-rising Westlund was stuck playing low-level midget for longer than a draftable prospect generally does, so he was one of the few kids who end up taking their recruitment this late. He broke out in December, in fact:
The Gunnery #23 - 5'11" 160 - LC - 12/12/97
After playing Tier II Midget during the fall season, the Swedish native made his first real impression on the myriad of NHL scouts and college coaches in attendance for Monday's Berkshire Jamboree. Playing center, he showed off his wheels. He's a tremendous skater who has a good first step and can really move around the sheet. It will be interesting to see how he continues to adjust to the style of play over here, but he's an athletic, raw talent that should be watched closely. A few NHL scouts were very high on him after seeing yesterday's games against Kent and Northwood.
Like Andrew Copp, Westlund is under the radar because of his participation in another sport. In his case it's soccer. Copp turned out to be underrated. Hopefuly Westlund is as well, but probably not this underrated:
It’s absurd to compare anyone to Buffalo Sabres star Jack Eichel, but there are similarities in his skill set to that of the former BU Terrier. Westlund is a very good skater. He has a long, smooth stride that appears effortless. He can really get going quickly and seems to have that extra gear.
He has a long reach for a player that isn’t very tall. He does a good job pulling the puck back before quickly releasing a hard wrist shot on net.
Westlund is ranked #116 by the CSB and should be a mid-round pick. That is an excellent late addition, and one that Michigan needs. If JT Compher does sign Michigan will have lost five forwards; Westlund helps stanch that cut. Heisenberg shows Michigan with a couple of forwards beyond the NTDP guys but they seem like fourth-liners. Michigan will have a ton of defensemen next year even without Werenski and Downing, so a more or less permanent move forward is likely for someone. Cutler Martin moved up for a few games last year.
Meanwhile, the final CSB rankings came out. Michigan recruits on the list all fell significantly:
- #70 Griffin Luce (down from 54)
- #108 Will Lockwood (down from 69)
- #112 Nick Pastujov (down from 100)
- #117 Ken Johnson (down from 97)
- #146 James Sanchez (down from 135)
D Luke Martin is 2017 eligible and supposedly a first-round pick; Johnson may or may not arrive this fall. Other than him it's a bunch of guys like Marody or Kile: mid-rounders who might become nice players but are not going to replace Kyle Connor's production immediately. That Lockwood drop is a surprise since Kyle Woodlief recently named him a late riser.
The distant future, the birth year 2000. F Blade Jenkins and D Mattias Samuelsson made the NTDP. While that's an unusually low number for Michigan, three guys in the 2018 class—G Dylan St. Cyr, D Quinn Hughes, and F Joshua Norris—were already with the NTDP this year. (Although that may change. I'm going by the Chris Heisenberg list and he has just two skaters in the 2017 class. Kile, Shuart, De Jong, Allen, and Lohan will all depart next year. Very possible a couple guys are either misclassified or get bumped up.)
Jenkins was a shock selection in the OHL draft, going fourth overall to Saginaw. Usually that means that the player in question has an under-the-table deal already, but in the aftermath Todd Jenkins, the father, confirmed that Blade would play for the NTDP. Saginaw's GM was like "whatevs, man":
"Is it going to be easy to get them here?" Drinkill said. "No, it's not."
Saginaw is not a team that's particularly good at turning guys—Brandon Saad's college commitment was widely regarded as fictional long before he defected. But there will (probably) be a new coach so there's the potential for some wobble. FWIW, Jenkins's dad played at Maine.
Drinkill did give us a scouting report:
"Blade is the best player in the draft, and that's the consensus of the hockey world," Drinkill said. "He's got elite skills, but he's also the player who wants to be on the ice at all times. He will do anything to play."
Michigan hasn't had to worry about the OHL coming after commits for a half a decade; here's hoping Jenkins doesn't break the mold.
A note if you think you may have already read this post. You did. Your brain shut down because of the following section and won't let you remember it out of self defense. You should probably go read the Economist or something and come back later this afternoon.
what does any of this even mean [Bryan Fuller]
The nonsense doesn't stop. Ace covered much of this yesterday but since it just keeps coming, let's talk about satellite camps some more. Dennis Dodd wrote an article that was so nonsensical he took his twitter account private. In it he decries the hypocrisy of… I have no idea?
It's the reaction to closing that little loophole that smacks of hypocrisy. With satellite camps shutting down, the conversation suddenly became about depriving poor kids of opportunities.
This is in contrast to the conversation being about Harbaugh, I guess. This is because before Harbaugh was doing things, and now the NCAA is doing things. Thus the conversation shifts.
Proponents argued satellite camps provided “exposure.” I'm sorry, did that Internet that Harbaugh so expertly hijacked suddenly go down? Phone service, too?
This segues into a discussion of this new "Hudl" thing Dennis Dodd just discovered, which is so detailed that it even has… phone numbers. Therefore because Hudl there is no reason to have a camp. I'm not fisking this. This is not a fisk. I'm not
Here's the further hypocrisy: If satellite camps are truly about opportunities for recruits, it's about time to double down on that assertion.
Um, okay, and how would you do th
How about providing those same opportunities on the back end? Let college players participate in the NFL Combine without penalty. If they don't like their performance or draft projection, allow them to return to college and retain their eligibility.
AAAAAARGH WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH ANYTHING
THIS IS NOT A FISK
That jarring nonsequitur probably shut down many readers' brains and… just a second. Okay, I've prevented an infinite loop with the section at the top of this post. Anyway, in response to a satellite camp ban affecting high schoolers, Dennis Dodd suggests that the NCAA should loosen its rules for an entirely different cohort of people. He talks about the "hypocrisy" of people who don't like the ban without even gesturing towards a way in which their words and actions might conflict, and finally:
The whole satellite camp episode was a lot more about closing off Harbaugh than opening opportunities for all those deprived prospects.
This is 100% wrong. The clumsy total ban of satellite camps does significantly impact staffs and players around the country, leading to more unfortunate situations where a kid gets midway through his career only to discover that he's in the wrong place.
Gah. I'm going to do something more productive and argue with my plants.
Harbaugh don't stop can't stop. Dude is giving the commencement speech at Paramus. All I got for Michigan's commencement was some poet laureate.
There is a petition. While online petitions are of questionable efficacy, a big number on this one in what is essentially a PR battle might help something. Also it was started by Donovan Peoples-Jones's mother, which is interesting. We've heard a lot from current college athletes upset about the ban, but not so much from recruits. Even if this is indirect evidence it is evidence.
Mike Leach has no time for lyin'. Mike Leach is a gentleman and a pirate.
“The voting process, that’s a rabbled-up mystery too,” Leach said. “From what I understand, this is befuddling, and I do plan to find out because our conference voted to eliminate satellite camps, and yet the vast majority of schools in our conference were in favor of satellite camps.
“I can’t fathom how it’s possible we voted to eliminate it. I don’t know the details. Whether it’s smart, dumb or in the middle, it’s wrong. It’s wrong. If you’re some kid in south central LA who’s really worked hard at football and worked really hard for your grades, now all of a sudden you don’t have the opportunity to see as many schools as you would otherwise. That’s crazy.”
Leach said the vote will “further oppress low-income families.”
To be fair, the rule change was two sentences long. Hugh Freeze, he of the "you can't work because I don't want to work" quote, is also surprised about how words work in an Andy Staples article:
Monday morning, Freeze’s phone rang. On the other end was a coach wondering if he was no longer allowed to work the Ole Miss camp. The coach worked at an FBS school, and Freeze realized that coach would be banned by a rule passed Friday. … Freeze realized quickly that the ban had a serious consequence he hadn’t considered. In keeping Michigan coaches from working camps at high schools in Alabama, Florida and Georgia and Oklahoma State coaches from working camps at a Division III school in Texas, the schools also had banned Bowling Green coaches from working Ohio State’s camp and Arkansas State coaches from working the Ole Miss camp.
Freeze is clarifying his position into something even more selfish: you can work as long as you aren't competing with me.
“I would love to continue that,” Freeze said Monday. “I just don’t want satellite camps for the Power Five. I am for non-Power Five schools being able to attend and evaluate.”
This is so dumb it reminds me of the way college hockey works. We have a rule that 1) all athletes hate, 2) most of the Pac-12 hates despite the fact that they voted for this, 3) even people in support of it don't understand, and 4) turned the Sun Belt Commissioner into Perd Hapley. Staples again:
I’ve told you for a year that the satellite camp argument was one of the stupidest in the long and storied history of stupid NCAA rule arguments. It came to the stupidest logical conclusion Friday when a vote that should have been 11–4—because each Power Five conference vote counts double—against the ban came out 10–5 in favor of the ban.
Hugh Freeze's only asset as a coach is that he turns a blind eye to the most obvious bagmen in the country, and he will eventually be found out.
Yet another dumb thing. All other levels of football think satellite camps are fine. From an article on the impact to SMSB:
Despite the camp being held in Detroit, schools like Michigan, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan programs will not have the opportunity to scout and interact with potential recruits in what could be considered each program's own backyard. However, Football Champions Subdivision, Division II and other coaches will still be able to be in attendance.
This really is a rule that some selfish coaches voted into existence because they didn't want to be jackhammers.
The great Hackenberg debate of 2016 is not much of a debate. PFF posted a draft evaluation of Christian Hackenberg, presumably because they don't have a draftable grade for him and people keep asking them about it. They explained themselves. Witheringly so:
This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing.
Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative.
Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage.
This goes on and on for paragraphs, each piling more problems on Hackenberg as an NFL quarterback. While it is by no means a nice evaluation it is backed by a ton of numbers and game charting and more or less confirms what any neutral observer saw out of Hackenberg over the course of his career: brief moments of being John Elway amongst a sea of turfed screens and airmailed out routes. Michigan got a taste of that last year when Hackenberg put together a couple of pinpoint, NFL throws on a day where his other accomplishments were seeing Jabrill Peppers misplay a jump ball and piloting an offense that barely cracked 200 yards.
The PFF evaluation seemed pretty definitive to me, but Penn State folk kind of lost their minds about it. Black Shoe Diaries in particular:
At what point do I, as a Penn State alumnus and fan, step back and try to be even more subjective about the NFL draft stock of Christian Hackenberg?
Did you mean "objective"? Because it feels like you meant "objective," but then the rest of your piece makes me think that you actually meant "subjective" since it's all hand-waving at some pretty eye-popping stats. PSU fans seize on one error—the Allen Robinson catch at the end of regulation against M a couple years back is held up as a example of a bad decision without taking the game context into account—to dismiss the whole thing when it contains startling facts like "16% of Hackenberg screens are off target."
While I don't know exactly how PFF goes about their business, my grades and theirs for Michigan players generally line up*, and charting pass accuracy is probably the easiest thing I do. An outfit like PFF isn't going to be so far off with the above numbers that Hackenberg actually looks good. By a few hundred words into the piece it's clear that the dude is just swinging in the dark, and this…
Lack of Upside
…is waving a tiny punt flag in the face of a guy who actually put in the work. At least it led to one of the most entertainingly one-sided twitter fights in recent memory:
@PFF_Sam sure, feel free to cherrypick lowlights and use those to back up your contrarian conclusion, that's a thing normal people do
— Black Shoe Diaries (@BSDtweet) April 11, 2016
This was said in response to a piece that dealt with every Christian Hackenberg throw over the past two years. He might get drafted but only because there are mugwumps running NFL teams. Hi, Jed York!
*[To the point that when they were pumping up the Michigan D and noted that only one major contributor wasn't grading out very positive I knew exactly who that was because I also had one major contributor not grading out very positive.]
Etc.: Basketball ticket sales not going well. Man hired to do job. Man has job, doesn't do it, and everyone thinks that's fine. Jimmy Vesey won the Hobey because the saps who vote for the thing bought his PR story about why he returned to college. Why does that even matter? I don't know, but it does.