at least it's not just us?
I have no link here, but scan an OSU or UM message board anywhere and you'll see someone claiming that Michigan target David Lighty has committed to the Buckeyes. I am a seasoned diviner of message board rumor accuracy, and this one seems very likely to be true. Lighty will announce officially on Monday. Expect it to be bad news.
If the news is indeed bad, this is a more a huge get for OSU than a huge loss for Michigan--Amaker has already secured a commitment from wing K'len Morris and prospective commitment DeShawn Sims plays a similar position, leaving little room for a third wing in this class. Not that Lighty is anything to sniff at--he's currently ranked as a five star by Rivals and a top-20 recruit nationally, though that ranking may dip since he tore his ACL a few months ago. OSU has already secured a commit from a five star shooting guard/small forward prospect in Daequan Cook, who committed about a month ago. A commit from Lighty would get the ball rolling in a major way. OSU is still in on Greg Oden, a center who is the consensus #1 overall prospect for the class of 2006, and his teammate and friend Mike Conley, a highly recruited point guard himself. Picking up commits from those two and a fifth top-100 recruit (any top-100 recruit) would result in a class that would at least equal the Fab Five. It's safe to say that new OSU coach Thad Matta is off on the right foot.
I wouldn't panic extensively, however. All indications, er, indicate that PG Tory Jackson and Sims are Wolverines in all but name and that center Tom Herzog is very likely to follow. Those three plus Morris are a certain top-10 class nationally. A fifth recruit, hopefully a post who can vacuum in rebounds and flagrantly elbow people, could push it up into the top five. Michigan isn't at the point where it has to worry about other Big Ten programs... get the house in order, make the tournament, and then look around warily. Still... Matta looks like a guy who knows what's he's doing. Maybe we can hire his defensive line coach.
Welcome to mgoblog's unified Big Ten season preview page. As of right now, we have just the barest outlines of the goofy-ass glory that is to come. Each team will get a full season preview. Michigan, of course, will get coverage that should frighten and alarm Lloyd Carr. He may want to take out a restraining order.
Before giving me both barrels, be sure to check out this explanatory post.
Update 5/23: Indiana preview up.
Update 5/30: Minnesota is done.
Update 6/13: Penn State. Yo.
Update 7/11: Michigan State. Goddammit I need to do these faster.
Update 7/14: Iowa.
Update 7/26: Northwestern. A note: the text on this page was written before any of the previews and thus represents some ignorance, especially re: NU. I will fix when complete.
Update 8/7: Purdue.
Update 8/17: Ohio State.
Update 8/28: Wisconsin.
Update 9/01: Michigan.
To start, let's shamelessly steal from Bill Simmons. I've grouped the teams into three tiers, given them snappy names, and assigned each an official quote from The Big Lebowski, the official movie of mgoblog.
THIS IS A FUNNY-LOOKING BASKETBALL
Indiana: Hoep for the Futuer?
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Shut the f*** up, Donny."
Why? Because they're out of their element, that's why! Because they have no frame of reference, that's why! Because the rest of the Big Ten can treat them with the same respect that Walter treats Donny... that's why. Gerry DiNardo is out and Terry Hoeppner is in, but the forecast for Indiana football remains mostly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of bowl.
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
Why? Ron Zook got run out of Gainsville on a rail but landed on his feet... well, knees in Champaign. He'd love to prove those guys at www.fireronzook.com wrong. Real darn tootin' wrong. Starting this year? Uh... probably not.
Wisconsin: Divest Your Stocco
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Five thousand years of beautiful tradition from Moses to Sandy Koufax? You're goddamn right I'm living in the past!"
Why? On November 12th, 2004, the Badgers were 9-0, #4 in the polls and riding an intimidating defense to either the national championship game or the Rose Bowl. Badger fans would do well to wistfully remember that moment. Wisconsin was annihilated 49-14 by MSU the next day and proceeded to lose its next two games to finish 9-3. This year? That intimidating defense is in the NFL, smoking pot, or smoking pot in the NFL. Wisconsin's entire starting defensive line and three-quarters of their secondary was lost to graduation. Brett Bell, the only returning starter in the secondary, tore his ACL in January. Only five starters return on the other side of the ball, and one of them is quarterback John Stocco, who sucks. Close your eyes and think of Koufax, cheeseheads, because this year is going to be ugly.
Northwestern: Spectacularly Average
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Jackie Treehorn treats objects like women, man."
Why? Northwestern appears to be relying on Brett Basanez's shaky arm (53.8 completion percentage in '04) to win games next year. They are confused. Basanez is "heady" and "a gamer" but in his case those are just nice ways to say "incapable of throwing straight." The vastly underrated Noah Herron is gone and Northwestern will badly miss his pass receiving and knack for squeezing out just enough yards. The bad parts of a horrendous defense return (so does injured DE Loren Howard, however, giving Wildcat fans some cause for hope). Never fear, Wildcats, there's always basketball season... uh, the hockey team... um... alums bashing everybody in newspapers nationwide. Yeah. That's the ticket.
DESPERATELY SEEKING SUN BOWL
Penn State: Dr. Jekyll And Mr. Robinson
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Phone's ringing, dude."
Why? Penn State is entering its fifth year of attempting to deny the plainly obvious fact that Michael Robinson is a wide receiver. Robinson is scheduled to bounce passes five yards in front of his intended receivers for the Nittany Lions this year, and no amount of eye-closing, ear-plugging, and "I can't hear you"-screaming will transform him into anything resembling a quarterback. The good news is that the paper version of PSU's defense is a monster and staggeringly fast WR recruit Derrick Williams got drunk on root beer and faxed his LOI to Penn State. Expect Williams to throw his hands up in frustration a lot this year, just like Beaver Stadium attendees. Also expect a lot of repeats of the Iowa game, a 6-4 abortion that had viewers nationwide clawing their eyes out.
Michigan State: O Stanton Without Whom We Are Naught
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Nobody f***s with the Jesus."
Why? If there's a Jesus in this conference, it's Drew Stanton. The Spartans will live and die on the feet and arm of Crazy Legs Drew. With him, they're an explosive offensive team capable of hanging 51 on you and overcoming their awful defense. Without him, they're Indiana. John L. Smith should tranquilize Stanton until the fall, and then wrap him in styrofoam before sending him out on the field. Expect Michigan State to win a game or two it shouldn't, lose to Kent State or Indiana, and finish in the middle of the pack, just like always.
Minnesota: Take The Over
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Stay out of Malibu, Lebowski! Stay out of Malibu, deadbeat!"
Why? Minnesota has made it a yearly habit of approaching the bare-bosomed promised land of conference championships and New Year's Day bowls without ever actually coming anywhere near them. Expect this year to be no different. Glen Mason will hop out to a hot start and crumble under the bright lights of teams without two or three directions in their name. Pasadena (which is metaphorically Malibu for purposes of this conversation) will remain forbidding and aloof.
Purdue: Quaker Oat Rampage
Official Big Leb
owski Quote: "Jeffery. Love me." "Maude? That's my robe."
Why? Purdue recieved a gift from the gods above when both Michigan and Ohio State rotated off their schedule for the next two years. That alone won't make them a contender, but combine it with the return of every defensive starter and the makings of a promising offense and you have a team will surprise unobservant pundits nationwide.
Iowa: Not So Fast, My Ferentz
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "That rug really tied the room together."
Why? Iowa's stingy defense was built around its defensive line. All four starters graduated, causing chaos in Iowa's spring practices instead of opponent's backfields. Iowa returns Drew Tate, a potent passing offense, and two incredible linebackers, but... that rug really tied the room together. Iowa will have to find a new rug or get run over by Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State. A shaky ground game almost has to improve but Iowa will live and die on Tate's arm and keeping blockers off of Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway.
Ohio State: OMGINN
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "Say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, but at least it's an ethos."
Why? Ohio State began last year fully committed to offensive nihilism. Midway through the year they converted en masse to to the Church Of Ted Ginn. The Buckeye's season depends on whether Ginn can morph from a freakish drag-racing novelty act (25 catches in '04) into the centerpiece of an effective offense. There is no established running back. The quarterback position is still up in the air--Troy Smith annihilated Michigan and then immediately got into booster trouble, leaving Justin Zwick to annihilate Oklahoma State. AJ Hawk and the defense should be able to shepherd the offense through some early-season growing pains, but when Tate, Stanton, and Henne come calling Ohio State will have to score often to win.
Michigan: A Tale Of Two Units
Official Big Lebowski Quote: "The Dude abides."
Why? The Dude has abided at the top of the Big Ten standings the past two years, but there has been something missing for Michigan fans. The program has reverted to its standard operating procedure after its 1997 national championship... consistently very good, never great. Can this change? Yes. Michigan returns more offensive talent than most teams see over the course of four years. The special teams look to be a strength. The consistently underperforming defense has the raw material to be an intimidating unit. But Michigan always seems to blow it. The next two years will either see Michigan emerge into a true national power or feature more teeth-grinding frustration. The Dude can't just abide any longer--he has to excel.
This was going to be a big exciting update with a ton of exclamation points pondering the direction of Michigan football and life in general, as I was under the erroneous impression that Michigan Stadium would host a night game next year.
Er... except it's at Northwestern. So nevermind the exclamation points.
Haven't discussed football recruiting in a while, largely because absolutely nothing has happened other than QB target Zach Frazer commiting to Notre Dame. I'll probably update the board in a few days with some guys who have emerged as targets and remove some of the more speculative "well, this guy might be interested" names I had up earlier.
There's a scout.com interview with Tim Tebow up, if you're interested. Tebow is either the #1 or #2 quarterback in the country and appears ticketed for Florida, but Michigan is in the chasing group with FSU, Miami, Georgia and Nebraska(?).
Michigan's summer camp will be the next big football event of the year. Usually there are at least a couple commits from the camp and this year it's looking like there could be several--many of Michigan's prime targets this year want to decide on a school before September. Last year Michigan picked up commits from Mister Simpson and Zoltan the Inconceivable.
Iowa's lines have taken another hit. Lee Gray, who started at left tackle for 11 of Iowa's 12 games last year, has undergone surgery on his knee for the second time and will miss the 2005 season.
Sounds like Iowa will be able to replace Gray with another experienced lineman--5th year senior Ben Gates--but after that they'll be faced with playing JC transfers, converted TEs, or true freshmen (although they would be highly touted true freshmen).
I didn't think it could be done, but they did it. There's now a fifth BCS game a week after the existing ones at one of the four sites. Does it match two of the four BCS bowl winners in a playoff-ish game? No. It's just the national championship game, like it was this year, except on something like January 8th. Two more teams will be BCS teams.
The "formula" is going to remain the same except the AP poll (which withdrew from the process and will crown its own champion) will be replaced with an as-yet-to-be-determined new poll. Auburn fans everywhere have died in vain.
What's so bad about a single added game? This is the same organization that stridently opposes a playoff on the grounds that it will compromise athletes' ability to keep up academically. mgoblog (and most people who are paying attention) call shenanigans. Shenanigans! The college hockey season lasts from October until March and even April for teams who make the Frozen Four, a full two months longer than the football season. I don't have any numbers in front of me at the moment, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that hockey players graduate more frequently than football players. Can we dispense with the obviously untrue, patronizing "it's for the children!" excuse for the bowl system?
There's one good reason to oppose a playoff: the Rose Bowl. That's it. The tradition and oft-referenced pagentry of college football make it what it is, and the Rose Bowl is the regal center of the whole enterprise. There's definitely an argument to be had about the pros and cons of a playoff, but let's be serious here: nothing on the pro or con side has anything to do with a few teams playing for an extra week or two. These kids are already majoring in football.
mgoblog got a hit today from someone who typed this into Google:
"what the hell happened to Shazor and Browner"
I hope I answered at least half of his question.
Update: Two more good ones: "adam jones pacman bling" and "wtf shazor." Shazor should go undrafted every day!
And it all started with googling "Jason Avant." I ended up here:
That's Lamarr Woodley as a high school senior. Yes, he's eating a football.
Also, check the column headline from this edition of the Daily immediately following the UM-MSU basketball game that UM actually won:
Yeesh. (I grabbed both these photos from www.molophoto.com... dude used to work for the Daily. Hire him, so he doesn't sue me.)
Then there's this:
Uh. No comment on that one. It exists. That is enough. Also, did you know that the Purdue student newspaper is actually called the Exponent? I shi'ite you not. I feel much more secure in my belief that I am nowhere near the dorkiest person in a three state radius.
What does any of this have to do with Jason Avant? Very little. Also, mgoblog showed up on page 29. I find this disappointing, both in that I got to page 29 and that I didn't find me before then. Goal for football season... page 20!
Are you interested in a cracked-out 2006 mock draft? YES? You have severe emotional issues. Nonetheless, I provide.
Why do I say this draft is cracked out?
30. New England - Pierre Woods, LB, Michigan
Where's that damn emoticon... ah yes.
Also, infinitely more plausible, is this:
18. Kansas City - Jason Avant, WR, Michigan
And even that's a big stretch. I love Avant, but you can't expect him to run well enough at the combine to leap into the first round.
Update: Here's another draft, this one from CBS Sportsline. Watson at #16, and Avant (again!) at #24.