I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
It's time for everyone's favorite creepy Nabokov-inspired pastime: recruiting. As the season has progressed actual events have seriously impinged on my ability to obsessively cover the projected future events (one million national championships, natch), but now that actual events have ceased actively tormenting me except in all too frequent 'Nam flashbacks, we can return to the magical fairyland that is the Future.
In the future, cancer will be totally awesome and Michigan won't play a zone looser than the morals of Betty Grable (harlot! zing!). In the future, space hamburgers will be made in space and Michigan will be a rough-and-tumble unit with aggression bordering on maniacal. In the future, the pain of all oppressed peoples worldwide will be redirected into the state of Ohio via lasers (natch) and Michigan will win. And stuff. With these players!
A note: the recruiting board has been updated and is presumed accurate for the offense. If you have any corrections, tips, or unlinked articles to add, comment or email me.
Needs: Michigan attempts to take a quarterback every year. A recruit this year is looking at competing for the job with Jason Forcier and Unnamed '07 Recruit as a redshirt sophomore after Henne leaves.
Commitments: Michigan took a flyer on Statesboro, Georgia QB David Cone, who draws comparisons to Elvis Grbac for being an inexperienced passer stuck in an option offense and to John Navarre for being a big, gumpy white guy.
Prospects: Most of the other high profile quarterbacks Michigan was after either committed elsewhere or were outperformed by Cone. Michigan is still going after Florida's Tim Tebow but he's expected to stay in the south. There's a 95% chance Cone is it.
Completely Useless Opinion: I'd prefer it if Michigan landed a bigtimer every year, but failing that I think Cone's commitment is okay. You can tell a lot from how Michigan approaches a particular player's recruitment. In Cone's case, he showed up to camp, stood next to more touted prospects like Neil Caudle and Pat Devlin, and came out a Michigan commitment. Michigan immediately ceased seriously pursuing everyone outside of Tebow. They like him and actively chose him over guys with bigger reputations. He's certainly a risk but he's not going to be walking into a situation like Henne's where he'll be asked to start as a freshman. He'll have at least two years to get comfortable.
For more on Cone, check out this recent article from the Savannah Morning News. I likes me a quarterback who says things like this:
"It's a situation where we don't want to deviate from what's been working for us," he said.
Smart kid; probably good at reading coverages; if I see him whip out "excoriate" at any point I will commence agitating for him to usurp Henne immediately upon matriculation. Blizzam SAT verbal section!
Needs: Almost none. Michigan took Kevin Grady and Mister Simpson last year and allowed Simpson to redshirt. Next year, then, they'll have two juniors, a sophomore, and a freshman even without any commitments.
Prospects: Michigan is pursuing a few backs, but all seem like longshots.
Completely Useless Opinion: We probably don't take a tailback, which is fine.
Needs: Also almost none. Three freshmen came in last year and two--Mario Manningham and Antonio Bass--appear to be budding stars chock full of speed almost southern in its vast quantity. The third, LaTerryal Savoy, has also impressed the coaches despite being given a redshirt. He's reputed to be more of an Avant type.
Commitments: Florida WR Greg Mathews, a four-star to Rivals and three to Scout. Mathews is big (6'2") but has surprisingly slow 40 times listed (4.72 on Rivals, and an OL-like 4.9 on Scout) that may or may not be reliable. Mathews just finished saving his team from an early exit in the Florida state playoffs by catching 8 passes for 213 yards, 126 of those in the fourth quarter after briefly leaving the game with an injured hip and cramps.
Prospects: With Mathews in the fold Michigan is down to a selection of instate sleepers who might get offers late in the process. Foremost among them is PSL MVP Dominque Douglas, who caught 24 touchdowns this year.
Completely Useless Opinion:Mathews would have gone to Miami if offered a scholarship; obviously the Hurricanes passed on him. How much should this color our perception of Mathews? Probably not much. Miami already has a commitment from a top-100 WR in Sam Shields and is heavily pursuing OMG 5 Stars(!) Vidal Hazelton, Percy Harvin, and Damon McDaniel. They have bigger fish to ply. His speed does seem almost caucasian in its paucity, but he seems to be doing fine on a high school level. He might not have the explosive burst of Manningham and Bass, but we could use a bigstrong possession alternative to said speedsters.
Michigan may offer Douglas or Adrian Cannon late if a scholarship opens up, especially if either shows an aptitude for defensive back.
Needs: Michigan probably needs one. Tyler Ecker is a senior next year and there are only two other tight ends on the roster, though Michigan likes both. Redshirt freshman Mike Massey is clearly a work in progress but should be an excellent receiver in time and Carson Butler is a 6'6" supafreak who could be a major difference-maker if he pans out.
Prospects: Michigan is reportedly looking at some instate guys who are flying under the radar.
Completely Useless Opinion: Michigan struck out on a couple of high profile targets and is left scouting the region for someone to fill the roster. Don't expect a star.
Needs:You always need offensive linemen, but Michigan recruited a whole unit last year and thus will go somewhat light this year in a small class. The primary area of need is tackle. When the 2006 class emerges from their redshirt year, Jake Long will be a senior if he's not in the NFL and there will be three sophomores battling for the left tackle job. Other than that there's nothing.
Commitments: Ohio G/C Justin Boren, son of former Michigan linebacker Mike, chose Michigan over Ohio State early in the year. Boren, an Army All-American, is ranked in the top 50 by both Scout and Rivals.
Prospects: Michigan is in a good position with two heralded face-mashers in Florida's Sam Young and Washington's Steve Schilling and is heavily recruiting three-star OT Perry Dorrestein from Illinois. Florida prospects Daron Rose and Jim Barrie are also possibilities, but seem ticketed for local schools.
Completely Useless Opinion: Offensive line is the position grouping where recruiting rankings matter least, but it would certainly be nice to pick up Young or Schilling. Either would significantly improve the outlook in the post-Long era, simply by dint of numbers. Three guys to man two spo
ts is a little hairy.
Depends heavily on how the offensive line class fills out. Michigan entered this year with very little required from its skill position recruiting what with Grady, Bass, Mario, etc, but a distinct need at quarterback and tackle. Striking out on the top quarterbacks is disappointing. Cone is a risk no matter how you slice it, though I do have faith in their ability to identify talent and the pattern behind his recruitment does look positive. If a big timer comes aboard in '07 then we're fine and will have a hell of a battle when Henne graduates. This seems likely, by the way. As far as offensive tackle, we are in on a number of prospects that would satisfy the need but I don't know that we can count on any of them.
As of now this class appears to be in the C range. A commitment from a high profile offensive lineman or two could bump it up to a B- or B.
Taking what I can get. Yes, Michigan did beat Central Michigan handily in their season opener, waxing the Chips 87-60. Both Big Ten Wonk and Hawkeye Hoops wonder aloud whether Tommy Amaker is reading blogs for his strategery, as Daniel Horton took all of four shots in 27 minutes and allowed Abram and Sims to shoot 16-for-20. I'm guessing he doesn't; the turtleneck thing persists.
Big Ten Wonk pointed out offensive rebounding as a canary-in-the-coalmine stat for Michigan this year, but I'll be looking closely at two other stats: defensive rebounding and turnover percentage, especially from the guards. I'm resigned to the fact that Hunter, Brown, and Sims are all going to turn the ball over with frequency, but there should be a dramatic improvement in the backcourt. For all of Horton's fobiles and Harris' struggles, they're worlds better than Dani Wohl, Ashtyn Bell, and the rest of the IM All Stars. As far as defensive rebounding goes, there's just no excuse for a team with a veteran and deep set of posts and a couple wings (Coleman and Abram) who are capable on the glass to finish dead freakin' last in the league. Michigan must improve drastically to compete for an NCAA spot.
So far? Freshman Jerrett Smith had nine assists and two turnovers; Horton had four and zero. Ominously, 17 turnovers were turned in by others, including four each from Abram and Sims. Better news is to be found in the defensive rebounding, as Michigan crushed the Chips to the tune of 86%. Even notoriously soft Chris Hunter got in on the act with seven defensive boards in only 19 minutes.
Yeah, other people think it sucks, too. RBUAS:
It was 21-12 and I kept getting the feeling I'd seen this game before. The way the lead was so unsatisfying, how bewilderingly it had been obtained, and how petrified I was even while up nine points, knowing fate would soon realign itself and things would be back to normal, with Michigan baffled as to how another one got away
ugh, it was like watching the Lions.
Ah, the joke that never got to be made. After all-everything Ted Ginn handled a couple of punts like an epileptic with a hot potato, I was foaming at the mouth to make the "nice muff" joke. Twice. But Michigan wouldn't let that happen.
Joey's probably twitching in a ditch somewhere, but no doubt he'll check in with something appropriately rabid.
Drafty bits. The NHL's Central Scouting Bureau has released its preliminary rankings, which you can see up at INCH. Long story short: Mitera #3, Miller #17, Turnbull #21, Swystun #25, and Sauer the #1 goalie. The preliminary rankings are only per league, but since the NCAA has averaged from 5-8 first round picks in recent years, it appears that Mitera is a likely first-rounder. Sauer may be as well, though it's really hard to tell with goalies until much later in the year.
Well, there's always the Pistons. Despite getting blown out of Dallas by the end of the first quarter on Saturday, they're still 8-1 and Rasheed is still saying things like this:
"I'm telling you, Darko is a Serbian gangster," Rasheed Wallace said. "Darko's got some bodies back there (in Serbia-Montenegro). He can go psycho on guys."
XOXOXO Sheed. Remember that he is known as the King of Vulgarities when he takes a penalty.
(via Detroit Bad Boys)
11/19/2005 - Michigan 21-25 Ohio State - 7-4, 5-3 Big Ten
Now, despite forcing myself away from this space until I could compose some semi-rational thoughts, comes the bile. It won't go away and I have to write something. I pre-apologize. There's little less seemly than the semi-coherent invective of a fan directed at a coach, but the camel got an anvil this year. I wish this was better, but since it's not in all caps and I retroactively removed all the swearing and (non-oblique) references to retards I declare a tenuous victory over emotion.
I'm not the kind of person to go around blathering about how I was OMG RIGHT. I wrote a lot of words this year. Random chance indicates that some of them are going to be right. But did it have to be this stuff?
When Wisconsin took the ball with around 4 minutes left and calmly marched for a winning touchdown, I said this:
So how about that strategic blunder?
Michigan allowed the worst possible thing to happen to them on Wisconsin's final drive: a touchdown with vanishingly little time on the clock. When the Badgers got the ball back Michigan should gone nuts with aggressive man to man and blitzing to prevent the 8-10 yard plays that Wisconsin got with frequency. They were aggressive up front with eight man fronts but the coverage they played behind it was soft and the corners and safeties were playing far off. When it became clear that Wisconsin was A) going to have more than enough time to do whatever they want and B) not going to punt, Michigan should have taken its timeouts and told Wisconsin that if they were going to score, they were going to score quickly. First and ten from the 24 was the tipping point, if not sooner. Passively watching Wisconsin drive down the field and getting the ball back with 29 seconds left is a recipe for defeat, and defeat is not Good Eats.
Our miraculous escape from the Penn State game did not prevent me from revisiting the topic:
What is the deal with that last drive?
I don't know. Robinson made some excellent throws but Michigan also played off, never blitzed until first and goal (except when they sent all of five guys on one play), and generally made things as easy on him as they could in an effort to not give up a big play. In doing so they repeated the mistake they made against Wisconsin by not adjusting their defense to a much more aggressive stance. Playing soft with that much time on the clock eats time, often preventing the offense from mounting a response drive. Michigan had 20 or 30 seconds against Wisconsin and just 50 against Penn State. Without the Breaston return they lose. The advantage of having the ball last in a close game is often overlooked and Michigan played in a way that immediately reduced their chances of getting a last possession.
Passivity also makes much less sense when the offense is going to go for it on fourth down. Allowing medium range passes without serious resistance when the opponent has four cracks at a first down instead of three is a tactical error since you're relying on the opponent to screw up an extra play. Given that Penn State had way too much time on the clock for it to pressure them in any way, the correct strategy in that situation was to increase your aggression, reducing the chances of each individual first down at the expense of increasing the chance of a big play.
When Iowa nearly did the same thing until Ferentz caught some Carr-itis of his own, I said this:
This was a wretched defensive performance. Reviewing the tape I kept thinking to myself "how did we win this game?" A large part of Tate's success was due to Michigan never using man coverage. We played so far off their receivers that the only time we actually covered them is when they went deep. ... This is the essence of bend-but-don't-break: sit back until your opponents screw up, if they screw up. Michigan blitzed two times (I don't count the delaying LB tactic as a blitz as the LB is the fourth rusher). Two! Even blitz-hating TMQ would find that excessive. You can count the instances of man coverage on one hand . Not coincidentally, you can count the instances of covered receivers on the other hand. ...
We had the good fortune to get a number of drive-killing Iowa mistakes and thus managed to hold them to 17 points, but Michigan's defensive strategy in this game loses it 8 out of 10 times. We relied on Iowa drops and penalties and failed stunt pickups to win this game, which is crazy considering that Iowa was the least penalized team in the league coming in and is generally regarded as one of the best coached teams in college football. A series of flukes conspired against them in this game, otherwise they put up 30+. ...
Yes, this seems viciously harsh for a game in which Iowa scored 17 points in regulation, but ask yourself: when Iowa got the ball back with two minutes to go, what did you think our chances of stopping them were?
Those things were all true, no matter how much I wanted them to be false. My cockeyed optimism got the better of me after Northwestern, though:
I submit that Lloyd Carr is working towards that sweet eight-track player by changing his habits built up over the decades.
No, he isn't. Despite getting immediate negative feedback on his punt-and-pray strategy no fewer than three times this year, we saw Garrett Rivas jog on to the field to attempt a pooch punt 110,000 people knew was coming. The punt was quickly followed by a Charmin-soft zone that ceded the 22 meaningless yards gained in three plays and a touchdown scored without any time for Michigan to attempt a late-game drive of its own. Just like Wisconsin. Just like Penn State minus 30 seconds. Just like Iowa minus one point. A strong case can be made that Lloyd Carr and his coaching staff learn slower than laboratory mice, who generally figure out that the electric shock button is bad after one or two trials.
So I hope you'll forgive me when I say that with Ohio State on the 50 yard line and the deja vu hitting its most overwhelming point, I uttered a deadly serious declaration of hatred not directed at anyone in red. I was means and opportunity away from ending up on Fanopticon under a headline better reserved for English soccer fans. I sat there stupefied at Michigan's passivity, stupefied at its willingness to let Ohio State dictate the pace of the game, stupefied at the utter incompetence of it all. The entire year had led up to this futile point when the coaching staff consciously decided to use the same strategy that failed every time it was pressed into service to date, including the most recent Ohio State drive. In doing so they threw away every effort the players made to make up for a coaching staff that was damn sure that they were right no matter the copious evidence presented by the prosecution.
I give up. Despite the natterings about negativity from OMG PROGRAM INSIDERZ who think that any criticism that doesn't come from their mouths is null and void, this space has tried to hew a middle ground between those who are willing to blame Lloyd Carr for everything and those willing to blame him for nothing. No more. After watching Carr fail to learn a goddamned thing after ten years of the same thing over and over again, it's clear that we'd be better served with Algernon. This is a painful admission for me, since every year I've scoffed at those who think that Carr is mediocre to worse coach. The record speaks for itself, I said.
Well, yeah, it does.
Ballot links and suchforth and sowise; I don't have anything to ask this week, but if you've got something strident to say go ahead.
Well... here we go. I think I should have called the preview "Columbo Delenda Est" but that would result in the small but real possibility of Peter Falk kicking my ass.
Nervous? Yeah, I'm a little nervous. Not even about Peter Falk.
Run Offense vs. Ohio State
Oy. This is not so looking the good. Ohio State is now the second-ranked rushing defense in the country, though that is due in part to their tendency to sack the hell out of the quarterback--38 on the year for 244 yards. Game by game against teams with a pulse:
- Texas: 35 carries for 127 yards discounting sacks, 3.6 YPC.
- Iowa: annihi-tated (ha!). Albert Young gets 25 yards on 10 carries. Tate gets sacked for a loss of 43 yards; Iowa finishes the game with -9 yards.
- Penn State: 37 carries for 117 yards. Tony Hunt does get 64 on 16 for 4 YPC.
- Michigan State: Stanton is sacked 12 times for 58 yards. Outside of that Michigan State rushes for 174 yards on 39 carries, slightly over 4 YPC.
- Minnesota: 42 carries for 182 yards, 4.3 YPC.
- Northwestern: 27 carries for 116 yards, 4.3 YPC
What does this mean? It does appear that Ohio State's run defense is slightly flattered by its copious sack numbers. In general, teams not named Iowa or Illinois or Indiana can expect around four yards per carry. These numbers don't show the yardage variance but I suspect it's fairly high if the linebacker sack numbers accurately reflect the level of aggression in this defense, which would make sense with its profile. A defense that gives up 16, 0, 0, and 0 yards on four runs is a much more effective defense than one that gives up 4, 4, 4, and 4--it's the difference between punting on third and ten and having a second and six. Aggressive defenses that occasionally give up a chunk of yards because of said aggression are effective ones. Ohio State has an effective defense.
The upshot? There's the possibility of an actual running game if Hart is healthy and Henne is throwing short slants, crosses, and screens accurately. Michigan can't afford to hurl itself into the line 30 times if second and eight is going to be a punt most of the time, but if they do find an ability to keep the chains moving despite getting stuffed with frequency, the run game might break out like it did against Michigan State: nothing nothing nothing OMG RUN LITTLE MAN RUN.
Key Matchup: RB Mike Hart versus Carve Your Name In The Heart of This Game. He can do it if he's healthy, if he's on, if he's got space. He was shut down last year, yeah... but I'm saying there's a chance.
Pass Offense vs. Ohio State
This is where those 38 sacks come into play. The thing is, only 13.5 of them come from the defensive line. Carpenter has 8. Hawk has 7.5. Safety Donte Whitner has four. Obviously Ohio State is blitzing the bejeezus out of its opponents to pick up 24.5 sacks from people who are normally tasked with defending receivers. How do you combat such maniacal aggression? EA Sports Lee Corso says it several times a fictional football game: with screens and draws.
Michigan happens to be rather good at both these things, especially the former. Henne's inconsistency and the plethora of Michigan wide receivers capable of making those who attempt to tackle them look extremely stupid has made the wide receiver screen a staple of this year's offense. With the Ohio State secondary looking creaky past the first corner or two, Michigan appears poised to flip the script and use the passing game as a consistent source of low-variance first down yardage. There's only so much the vaunted Ohio State linebackers can do against Steve Breaston taking a screen to the sideline.
That won't suffice for the entire game, however, and Henne will be forced to drop back and throw downfield at some point, possibly very early if Ohio State comes out pressing. The Michigan passing game has been a comedy of errors at times this year, but the flame flickered a bit against Indiana as Henne hit all manner of routes both short and deep as well as you possibly can. He has the capability to beat a Buckeye secondary that has given up yards in big chunks against Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan State if Dr. Jekyll shows up. Michigan's success going downfield will be sporadic--Henne will be under pressure and the offensive line will allow pressure up the gut--but there will be opportunities. The difference in the game will be how well Henne takes advantage of open deep crosses and corners. Wisconsin == loss. Indiana == win.
Key Matchup: Offensive Coordinator Terry Malone versus Defensive Coordinator Tim Beckman. Chess match here. Michigan does have an advantage on the edges but attempting to exploit it too frequently will reduce its effectiveness. Malone has to pick his spots right.
Run Defense Vs Ohio State
For a variety of reasons Michigan's run defense has been very bad. Some of these reasons have to do with injury--Woodley's been out for about three games, David Harris missed the NUI game, Graham's been walking wounded, several DEs found their way to the bench--but there are systemic flaws that the now almost totally healthy team still has to deal with. Pat Massey is just not good at football. Chris Graham and Prescott Burgess have major issues with outside containment. It is possible that Michigan is healthy and experienced enough to drag some of the main offenders off the field, as John Thompson has proved himself a capable player and the defensive ends are finally all healthy at the same time, allowing Branch to slide back inside where he is equally effective. I would think that Graham and Massey might get less time than normal. They'll play, but it seems obvious to all that there are better alternatives. Michigan is out of injury and playing-style excuses.
Antonio Pittman has emerged as the starting tailback for the Buckeyes but remains a question mark in my mind. While Michigan's run defense is statistically not great, it's probably better at this point than it has been all year, and Pittman has been eating up a rich set of bad defenses. He will get a dose of something closer to reality tomorrow. I think the Hart-Pittman faceoff versus their respective run defenses is a push... wild-eyed optimism perhaps, but there it is.
However, Ohio State has an X-factor in quarterback Troy Smith, who has rushed for almost 600 yards this year. No doubt Ohio State will attempt to exploit his mobility much like it did last year when Smith rushed for televenty jillion yards, most of them by accident. Ohio State's used a lot of quarterback draws this year; given Michigan's chronic inability to stop said draws expect to see at least a few.
Key Matchup: Graham and Thompson versus Pittman. It's critical that Pittman is held down on early downs so Michigan can put the Buckeyes in spots where a third down Smith scramble is unlikely to garner a first down. Otherwise Michigan will be forced to zone up and play back, and that leads to a lot of easy conversions.
Pass Defense vs. Ohio State
I don't know exactly what to make of this. I fear Grant Mason's erratic tackling against Holmes and Ginn on short routes. I think Troy Smith is not the sixth-best quarterback in the country, and I think he's probably forgotten what it's like to see a defensive back within six yards of his receivers over the past few weeks. I think that I would rather not see the ball hurled skyward towards Santonio Holmes on a regular basis. Much could happen here and it would not be surprising. Smith could turn out to be a total mirage that a competent defense shuts down because they can actually cover and tackle just a little bit. He could turn out to be mini-Vince Young. So you've got me here. I'm throwing my hands up when either team drops back to pass: I don't know what's going to happen.
I do expect that Michigan will throw a ton of zone at Ohio State and rely on Woodley and company to get to Smith without compromising their deep coverage or their ability to track down a scrambling Smith. I think Ohio State will not be consistent enough to move t
he chains like Tate did against our zone, nor will they have all that much time to throw against what should be an active defensive line. But then there's those fast guys, and our tendency to show exactly our intent before the snap, and... I could fabricate a bunch of stuff here. But it would be a guess.
Key Matchup: Lamarr Woodley versus RT Kirk Barton or Alex Boone. Boone's a monstrous, hyped recruit but still only a freshman. Barton has been in and out of the lineup with injuries just like Woodley. If Smith is not forced to make quick decisions he will pick apart the zone. The defensive line's ability to force stupid mistakes will be key.
Will be heavily hyped but are unlikely to have much impact on the game. As I've started harping upon recently, Ross Ryan has severely limited opponent return opportunities. Ohio State's Josh Huston and AJ Trapasso have done likewise. Ryan's had 11 of 44 punts returned; Trapasso 11 of 40. Ryan has put most of his kickoffs into the endzone; Huston has done the same. Neither Ted Ginn nor Steve Breaston figures to get much in the way of return opportunities.
Ohio State has an advantage in Huston. While Garrett Rivas is reliable inside forty yards he has limited range and something of a tendency to miss important kicks. Huston has hit 18 of 21 this year, though he's only had a few opportunities from beyond 40 yards (he's 3 of 4 from 40-49 and 0 of 2 from 50+). He has hit every field goal from within 40 yards.
Key Matchup: Garret Rivas versus The Lurking Ghost of Hayden Epstein. I assume that both returners will be neutralized and Huston will be reliable; the only thing left is Rivas and his occasional tendency to mess with our heads.
No, I didn't type in SARS kitten, just "desperate kitten." I think that sums it up well: the kittens are prepared for the worst but still holding out hope in the form of a jaunty blue bell collar.
Three Things I'd Like To See:
- Henne throwing downfield like he did against Indiana.
- John Thompson instead of Chris Graham.
- Evidence that the OSU offensive line is as unprepared to deal with Lamarr Woodley as they were Tamba Hali.
Three Things I Don't Want To See
- Any sort of limping from Hart.
- Antonio Pittman exploiting the Massey issue.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 9 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Goddamn That Is An Intimidating Defense; +1 for Hart/Long... Please?; +1 for Ewwww, Mobile Quarterback; +1 for Just Because.)
Desperate need to win level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +5 for The Game! The Game!)
Loss will cause me to... have nightmares where John Cooper and Lloyd Carr turn out to be my parents.
Win will cause me to... root for a last-second, controversial Michigan State victory and a matchup against a Big East team in the BCS.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: Columbus delenda est. Columbus delenda est! Michigan's brutal schedule and injuries combined with Ohio State's recent dance through the dandelions has many convinced that Ohio State is clearly the favorite. I do not think this is the case, as I laid out above. It's even. So will I pick a Buckeye win? In the immortal syllables of Dana Carvey's George Bush I impression: "Na ga da."
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- No one does anything in the return game.
- Henne comes through in the clutch.
- 23-21, Michigan.
First... in the words of Rasheed Wallace: "The Game! The Game!" Reading RJYH definitively proved to me that Alabama (the state) has no equal when it comes to college football fervency and Warren's recent post about handling the "Shroud of Bear" put any lingering doubts to rest, except those about the sanity of an entire state. But don't tell me that today. Alabama-Auburn may have more passion behind it, but they'll never run out in late November to find the world around them frozen. There's something biblical about cold-weather football, and I'm not talking my nipples-are-somewhat-erect cold. I'm talking the kind of cold that makes a stadium resemble March of the Penguins, the kind of cold that goes beyond annoyance and causes 110,000 people to concentrate very hard upon not dying. It exemplifies the nobility in certain kinds of sheer stupidity.
And there are times when it doesn't feel particularly cold at all.
In that vein, one last linkdump for your edificiation. Blah Me To Death has collected dozens of links as a starting point. Sam at BC&RS exhorts you to wear your blue, and also forwards an email that's being batted back and forth amongst the students:
-Bring water bottles and change (remember, the nazi gate-watchers
won't let you bring them in when they're opened, so if you're planning
on bringing your own special refreshments, make sure to hide it well),
and when you're done drinking your "water", make some noise!
If you're interested. Oh, yeah, and:
don't be a jackass...
Amen, though since I doubt anyone reading is the type of person to be said jackass, the take-home message is to do something about any jackassery you should see. There are east coast frat boys out there, people: let them know to save that stuff for when they're back home spending daddy's money at the Meadowlands.
Vijay at IBFC is having a Rebus contest. I only got the first one.
Wojo checks in with a column that shows he's paying attention:
Quickly, the Buckeyes' obsession returned, and things really got nasty last year in Columbus (city slogan: "$#@& Michigan").
Oh, Wojo, lone bright spot in Detroit's sports opinion scene. The OZone must be putting on the reverse jinx or something, predicting a 24-20 Michigan victory.
Meanwhile, we have proof that Buckeye fans are nuts:
"You see," Peterson continued, getting spiritual about why the rivalry means so much down here, "this is God's team. You can just put Heaven, Ohio," for the dateline.
Look. I could try to put a joke here. But all it would do is distract from the sublime quality of the above quote. So just read it again.
Yes, the bouncing sport gets underway tomorrow against Central Michigan. The Chippewas do not look to be a threat after dropping a game to a D-2 school. Michigan is favored by 25. Poster Central40 on The Wolverine posted some impressions from an open practice he attended that has good news...
-Horton: Really impressive. Looked smooth and in control during drills, didn't push the envelope, but was almost too unselfish-- maybe trying to get others involved. Looks to be ready for a big year.
-Abram: Welcome back. Abram was money from the outside and finished well on the fast break (often 1 on 1). Guy is Mr. consistency, will never wow you, but you'll look up at the scoreboard and see he's put up 15-20 points.
-J. Smith: Guy is continuing to prove the doubters wrong. People said he can't handle the full court pressure-- he broke it with ease. People say his jumper is broke-- he nailed multiple threes and made a lot more than he missed. People said he misses the clutch free throws-- nailed 2 sets of 2 when team sprints were on the line (all four swished). Most impressive of the freshmen (thus far), hands down. Always thought this guy would be well suited for college and Amaker isn't looking like the idiot that everyone thought he was for taking him early.
-Harris: Started out slow, but finished better. Still looks slowed by his foot, doesn't look explosive or quick. His shot was a little off and he didn't take it to the hole all that much. I will reserve further judgement until the CMU game, but he looks like he's 80% out there.
-Sims: Blah. Same old, same old. Looks like an all-star the time and a tennis star (to quote SBell) the other half. Would love to see the guy play pissed off one game-- he'd have 25 and 15.
Sounds like the other two freshman are very raw at the moment.
Scout has more on Alex Legion, by the way. Does not sound like a Crawford-esque decommit is even a remote possibility.
Yeah, I don't think I can top the coaches one, so this may be a letdown, but you get what you pay for.
|The Unabomber||Wackjob||Jeffery Dahmer|
|Advantage: Michigan (Bombing People > Eating People)
|Arthur Miller, Crucible playwright who pulled his 5x2 on Marilyn Monroe||Famous Author||RL Stine, guy who writes the "Goosebumps" series|
|Does it matter?||Humorist||Bruce Vilanch|
|Vastnormous Advantage: Michigan|
|Tom Freakin' Brady||Quarterback||Kirk Herbstreit|
|Lucy Liu||Hottie||Patricia Heaton|
|Clarence Darrow||Famous Law Talkin' Guy||N/A|
|James Earl Jones, Darth Freakin' Vader||Voice of God Guy||Jack Buck, legendary announcer and sire of demonic Joe Buck|
|Google co-founder Larry Page||Internets Superhero Guy||Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger|
|Selma Blair||Chick Who Made Out With Sarah Michelle Gellar Guy||N/A|
|Ann Coulter||Woman Some Find Hot, Inexplicably||Melina Kanakaredes|
|Advantage: Eeeew. Push
(Note: Michigan is spared a huge black mark because Michael Moore went to UM-Flint.)
Another Michigan blowout: 10-0-2. They never stood a chance.
(In the interests of focusing more on Ohio State only the first half of the game was charted, since the starters made their exit at half time. Copious thanks to Vijay at IBFC for providing a video as I again forgot to tape the game. Bad Brian, very bad Brian.)
|1||10||O34||Scramble||Henne||2||Henne rolls out and keeps rolling. (TA)|
|2||8||O32||Pass||Bass||7||Bass motions out of the backfield, making this a 4 WR set and catches a simple stop route. (CA)|
|3||1||O25||Pass||Avant||10||Slant to Avant. Ward claims that Henne is going up top on the slant. Perfectly thrown. (DO)|
|1||10||O15||Run||Grady||3||Henige can't move the IU DL out and Grady eventually runs into him. He didn't have anywhere else to go.|
|2||7||O12||Pass||Grady||7||Batted at the line but Grady catches it an picks up a first down. (BA)|
|1||G||O5||Pass||Avant||Inc||Probably a touchdown if Porter doesn't grab Avant's arm, forcing him to attempt a one-handed stab at the pass. (CA)|
|2||G||O5||Pass||Avant||Inc||Fade is overthrown. (IN)|
|3||G||O5||Pass||Ecker||5||Touchdown lasered into Ecker just out of the DB's reach. (DO)|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 9 min 1st Q. After the Grady deflection the color guy, who is almost as incompetent as Ward, starts waxing eloquent about how Henne has an inordinate number of balls tipped at the line. More on this below. It's crap. Also: I didn't think much of this drive to start but there are a few really excellent throws in here.|
|1||10||O48||Run||Jackson||1||Zilch.Linebacker is unblocked into the hole as the pulling Henige doesn't do anything useful.|
|2||9||O47||Pass||Breaston||23||Slip screen to Breaston off a quick count. The IU DB actually does a really good job of getting outside the other slot receiver and into Breaston's way, but a half second after Breaston gets his head around he just changes direction and goes zip upfield. (CA) BTW: Ward gets this spot wrong by 10 yards.|
|1||10||O24||Run||Jackson||3||Well blocked. Jackson doesn't make all he can of this. Hart does better here.|
|2||7||O21||Run||Jackson||5||Fake end around that the DE does no bite on, getting inside of long and closing down on Jackson.|
|3||2||O16||Run||Bass||8||Bass motions into the backfield and takes a pitch. He is freaking fast.|
|1||G||O8||Pass||Avant||8||I'd be doing my Yosemite Sam soft coverage act if this had happened to us. A long handoff from the eight yard line as the DB is playing way too far off Avant. Good recognition of an unlikely situation by Henne. (CA)|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-7, 6 min 1st Q.|
|1||10||M39||Pass||Breaston||12||This is a five wide shotgun look. Breaston runs a slant that he then cuts outside to an out... this route has a name, help me out here. Anyway, it's open and Henne lays it in there so Breaston can run after the catch. (DO)|
|1||10||O49||Pass||Massaquoi||6||Play action; Henne checks down to the short option. Throw is slightly behind Massaquoi. (CA)|
|2||4||O43||Run||Grady||0||Thoroughly depressing, as this run play is totally jammed at the line.|
|3||4||O43||Pass||Manningham||14||Manningham's open on a crossing route into an area that Ecker's route has vacated. Henne is again very accurate here. (DO)|
|1||10||O29||Run||Grady||2||Draw. Henige's man disengages and disrupts the play.|
|2||8||O27||Pass||Manningham||Inc||Caught in the endzone but it's out of bounds. Better footwork is a touchdown. (CA)|
|3||8||O27||Pass||No one||Sack, -8||Same guy who made the play on the first down draw beats Henige and rolls around the defensive end, who's getting doubled to make the sack. (marginally TA, as Henne could have gotten rid of the ball if someone was open immediately, but I'm not charting this one.)|
|Drive Notes: Missed FG(52), 14-7 1 min 1st Q.|
|1||10||O26||Pass||Manningham||3||WR screen is surprisingly well defended. (CA)|
|2||7||O23||Run||Grady||5||Grady's forced to cut back outside of the tackle. He makes two after contacting the tackler.|
|3||2||O18||Run||Bass||7||Dude Bass is fast. This is a fake end around from the receiver in motion paired with an outside pitch to Bass.|
|1||10||O11||Run||Grady||9||Pitch out to Grady; he makes an excellent swift cut behind an overpursuing linebacker.|
|2||1||O3||Run||Grady||3||Ends up about a foot from the goal line.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown(Missed XP), 20-7, 12 min 2nd Q.|
|1||10||O16||Run||Grady||7||Another pitch that Grady gets the corner on.|
|2||3||O9||Run||Grady||2||Third pitch in the last five plays.|
|3||1||O7||Pass||Massaquoi||Inc||There's a DE on Henne instantly on the waggle and he is forced to toss it immediately. (TA)|
|4||1||O7||Run||Bass||-1||Same end-around pitch play that we ran on the last drive. Bass actually stiff arms the safety coming up to make a play but can't keep his balance afterward and steps out just before lunging over the first down marker.|
|Drive Notes: Downs, 20-7, 8 min 2nd Q.|
|1||10||O40||Pass||Henne||Inc||Transcontinental is going to be a touchdown if Breaston can just get it there. That's why he's a wideout. (Not charted.)|
|2||10||O40||Pass||Grady||8||Scren. I think the reason ours work so well generally is because we've gone away from the screen where all four defensive linemen are released into the backfield that defensive linemen no longer buy. Ours are partial screens where in only a couple blockers are released and are thus not as obvious from the snap. (CA)|
|3||2||O32||Run||Grady||32||Touchdown wherein Grady is seemingly going to get stuffed at the LOS but powers through a tackle and rumbles, stumbles, etc, into the end zone. He showed POWER, as EA NCAA Football Kirk Herbstreit might say.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 27-7, 6 min 2nd Q. Does this count as a three and out?|
|1||10||M30||Run||Jackson||3||Well blocked by the line but Avant misses the safety and Ecker can't seal the linebacker as they converge.|
|2||7||M33||Pass||Avant||22||Heartening to see Henne nail Avant on this play, as it's the deep crossing route he's missed so often this year. This time he steps up and hits Avant perfectly. (DO)|
|1||10||O45||Run||Breaston||30||Reverse. Henne gets a hell of a block. I still think this stuff would work against OSU. Why run it now?|
|1||10||O15||Pass||Avant||Inc||Either a ridiculously overthrown pass or a miscommunication. I think it's the former, actually. (IN)|
|2||10||O15||Pass||Avant||9||Slant is somewhat behind Avant, but he makes an excellent catch. (CA)|
|3||1||O6||Run||Jackson||6||Touchdown. Jackson pushes forward to about the one and then lunges forward with the ball to finish for a touchdown.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 34-7, 3 min 2nd Q.|
|1||10||M31||Pass||Avant||18||A ton of time. Henne finds Avant on the deep crossing route again. (DO)|
|1||10||M49||Run||Grady||18||The quick-hitter we run with Grady slightly offset finally works as Michigan opens up a gashing hole and the linebackers don't react quickly enough to it.|
|1||10||O33||Pass||Grady||0||Screen that doesn't work as Stenavich never releases his guy, instead driving him into the play.|
|2||10||O33||Pass||Manningham||14||Wide open underneath the zone. Manningham dodges out of bounds swiftly. (CA)|
|1||10||O19||Pass||Massaquoi||Inc||Henne wings it over the head of an open Massaquoi. (IN)|
|2||10||O19||Run||Jackson||4||A similar play to Grady's 18 yarder earlier in the drive.|
|3||6||O15||Penalty||Manningham||5||Henne finds Manningham and the IU player hits him early. Manningham has to run this past the sticks, though: he was a yard short of the first down. (CA)|
|1||10||O11||Pass||Massaquoi||Inc||Henne manages to find a tiny window between two IU defenders low. It's a tough catch for Mass but a makeable one and a good throw. (CA)|
|2||10||O11||Pass||Breaston||11||Touchdown on a corner route that Henne lays right in Breaston's hands. (DO)|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 41-7, EOH.|
It's just Indiana.
Yeah, but still...
|Team||Dead on||Catchable||Inaccurate||Bad Read||Throwaways||Batted|
The screen count in this game is only 3, so our downfield good:bad ratio is 15:6, obviously a massive improvement over Henne's typical 1:1 this year. IU's defense had something to do with that--it's hard to make a bad read when no one is covered--but his accuracy was dramatically increased this week, defenders in the area or no. No, he wasn't being regularly pressured and the IU defenders were generally accomodating. We've heard that story before and it ends with Henne winging the ball well over the head of his intended target and severely fouling up the offense against, say, Wisconsin. This was different.
We need him to replicate this performance against OSU. That doesn't necessarily mean putting up the same numbers--OSU will do a better job of getting to Henne and covering our receivers. It does mean taking advantage of the opportunities the Buckeyes yield. He'll still make his share of poor-to-aaaargh decision against Ohio State, but if he can be efficient when he does find an open guy, it's hooray beer time.
You said you would yell about batted passes.
Henne does not have an abnormal number of passes batted at the line, as the chart above shows. Keep in mind that there are probably four or five incidents of passes being deflected downfield by defenders (and Tim Massaquoi once) lumped in there. He's really averaging slightly over one a game, and many of those were screens on which the tackle failed to get a cut on the offensive lineman.
The batted passes were an obvious issue in one game against Notre Dame and all of a suddent he's John Navarre in this department to many. It's just not true.
What was the deal with all the fancy shmancy trickeration?
I touched on this earlier in the week with a TIC assertion that Michigan was setting up Ohio State for the trick play by running their trick plays, but, er, in reality I'm not a fan of the decision to dump out the exotics against the Hoosiers. That pitch play they ran to Bass is money if the opponent doesn't have it scouted; now Ohio State does. Ditto for the fairly obvious transcontinental. It seems that they're trying to get Ohio State to respect the misdirection and thus open up their more conventional running game. Either that or they're just practicing it. Personally I would prefer to teach Ohio State to respect the misdirection by using it to score a first-quarter touchdown.
In any case, this week's profusion of exotics coupled with the frequent fake end-arounds Michigan was running against Northwestern imply that Malone does indeed have something unusual in mind for Ohio State. It seems like Michigan has acknowledged the fact that a plow-ahead running game is just not going to work on Saturday and will thus get the low variance portion of their yards via less manly means. This helps explain the transcontinental: the WR screen is going to be a staple and Michigan would like it to work the first couple times they use it, so keeping a Buckeye linebacker or two in the middle for an extra split second is desirable.
The offensive line?
Still shaky. Adam Stenavich has been invisible all year, which is perfect for a left tackle. He's shut down every pass rusher he's faced. But the guards were beaten regularly against Indiana of all teams. This happens on a regular basis, and I think the coaches are aware of this. Rueben Riley started rotating in very early in this game, seeing time at both left and right guard. I think Michigan will start the seniors but it's very possible that Riley--not much of a tackle but an effective guard last year--usurps one of the starting positions by the second quarter if the Buckeye DTs are regularly beating one of the starters. Kraus and Long still have health questions, so that's four starters with question marks above their heads. I don't think that's so good against Ohio State.
What does it mean for Ohio State?
If Henne can be as accurate as he was against Indiana we have a very good chance. He's not going to get off as lightly as he did against the Hoosiers, though. The happy feet he displayed against Notre Dame cannot return even though the pressure he will feel will likely be comparable. I've lost all faith in the guards. They're going to get beaten.
To run we need Mike Hart back. No offense to Jackson or Grady, but Mike Hart is on another level, to use a horrible-but-true sports cliche. He can be effective if we establish that Henne is going to be a downfield threat. If the Buckeyes are allowed to focus on him he'll be making his magic happen five yards in the backfield.
Expect misdirection. They've been setting it up for the past three weeks and are integrating it into the gameplan on a regular basis. They know they can't expect to line up and blow the Buckeyes off the ball. Expect a large number of simple throws for Henne that allow Breaston, Manningham, and Bass to run at defensive backs in space. It's going to be a WR screen festival. I'm okay with that: given our strong-armed quarterback, excellent edge blockers in Avant and Ecker, lighting bug receivers and the shallow Buckeye secondary, it's likely to be far more effective than running it into the teeth of a top-five run defense.
We're going to finesse this game, and it's the right decision.