It's game week! And it's hot hot hot around these parts.
We want Jim Bob Norman. This dapper looking fellow is a little-used Appalachian State wide receiver:
One of the program's most popular players, among both home and visiting fans ... has recovered from a severe shoulder injury sustained while lifting weights last offseason ... is poised to make a run at playing time in a loaded ASU receiving rotation.
2006: Did not play (shoulder injury).
2005: Appeared in four games ... made only catch of the season in regular-season finale at Elon, a career-long 19-yarder ... always a fan favorite at home, was also the object of affection at LSU, where Tiger fans began chanting his name in the fourth quarter ... a huge ovation erupted when Norman took the field at Tiger Stadium and he also received a standing ovation when leaving the field.
Just in case anyone is interested in starting up a chant or, I dunno, bringing a student-section-sized "We Want Jim Bob" banner to the game.
I know just how this guy feels. Owners of Hail To The Victors 2007 have probably noted an extensive article on Jim Harbaugh that lionizes his Michigan career and notes the up-and-coming coach who is not a backstabbing douchebag in any way may be in line for the Michigan job if the timing is right. Yeah. About that: obviously that was written before he applied plastic explosive to his Michigan bridges. So not only did I have same experience most Michigan fans did -- I can't believe this guy -- but I also got a special dose of banging my head against the wall and moaning "no no no no" because of the article. Thanks, Jim!
Anyway, The Town Talk, a small Louisiana newspaper, has an extensive article on Mamou native LaTerryal Savoy. Headline:
Former Mamou star focuses on faith first, football second
Proverbs 3:5-6 says: "Trust in the LORD with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways acknowledge him, and he will make your paths straight."
For some, the above passage is just mere words on a piece of parchment.
For LaTerryal Savoy, those words provide him with comfort, guidance, strength and love.
No mention of Proverbs 6:6-7: "Yea, go unto the stadium and displayeth your wang unto the unwilling; they shall rejoice and be glad. Then hire Counterpunt." But seriously, folks!
The article does paint a picture of Savoy reminiscent of Jason Avant; even if he made an unwise move he still seems like a good guy.
Well, at least we aren't Texas. Despite all the rhetoric about a "Big Ten tax" and how terrible it is that Appalachian State is not likely to be seen by many people, there are fans in a worse situation:
The Texas-Arkansas State game on Saturday, Sept. 1, at 6 p.m. CT will be televised live on pay-per-view by Big 12 Special Order Sports, FSN Southwest's pay-per-view division. It will be available on participating cable television systems in Texas and Arkansas, and nationwide to satellite dish customers. Suggested retail price is $29.95.
Thirty bucks to see a Sun Belt team! I bet you could walk up and get a ticket for less than that.
Transcription. What The Deuce jotted down some notes from a DeBord appearance on WDFN. A couple items:
Chengelis: What is going on with the right side of the line?
DeBord: I'm pleased with the play of Justin Boren at center. Schilling and Ortmann are competing for the right guard spot. Steve has started to step up. (emphasis mine). Cuilla is playing right guard now. We're happy that Alex Mitchell will be able to come back. (emphasis is mine).
Further confirmation we can expect to see Schilling for the opener; Cuilla, despite his injury, looks like he will also start. Also, we have a tentative winner at fullback: Mark Moundros. FWIW.
Accursed flash. ABC 13 in Houston has a veritable treasure trove of interviews with recruits Darryl Stonum and Sam McGuffie and their coaches, plus a couple highlights from a recent Cy Fair-Woodlands scrimmage in which McGuffie broke off a couple of long runs. I can't actually link to any of it because it's all contained in one of those hateful little flash applications that's completely opaque. So... it's all here. Scroll down and find the flash app, click on "highlights from Woodlands-Cy Fair Scrimmage," and enjoy. Then scroll down in the app and click on as many things that say "Stonum" and "McGuffie" as you can find.
McGuffie says he's up to 195, BTW, from 175 last season. Hopefully he maintains his speed.
Update 8/27: Moved PA HB Christian Wilson to committed. Removed OK S Kye Staley (Okie State), TX DE Kapron Lewis-Moore (A&M). Linked to articles on MI OL commit Dann O'Neill (another), NJ LB Chris Pantale, video feature on PA HB commit Christian Wilson, more articles on MN WR Michael Floyd, AZ CB Marc Anthony, CA RB Darrell Scott, CO LB Jon Major, PA HB Christian Wilson, PA DE Shayne Hale.
FWIW: internets scuttlebutt on NJ LB JB Fitzgerald. And Varsity Blue took in an OLSM-Cass Tech game, reporting back on Cissoko and '09 commit Will Campbell plus '09 WR/TE Dion Sims. Also: an article on elusive PA CB Jarred Holley that may have an incorrect list for him.
Editorial Opinion: Not much movement. Everyone who was planning to commit by the time their football season got in swing already has; those waiting for official visits haven't started taking them yet.
Varsity Blue took it upon themselves to go check out a Cass Tech-OLSM game featuring Michigan commits Boubacar Cissoko and William Campbell plus high profile '09 WR/TE Dion Sims:
In my previous experiences with Cissoko, I had been under the impression that his listed height was greater than the 5-7 he is typically reported to be. However, seeing Cissoko in action, it was obvious he was a tiny guy. As just a high school senior, it is possible that he is still growing.
On defense, Cissoko was not afraid to get physical with much bigger players, and he was frequently matched up against Dion Sims. Despite giving Sims almost a foot in height and close to 100 pounds, Cissoko showed no fear in jamming Sims off the line and downfield. Cissoko did get burned once deep, as he got his head around too late on a long pass, and due to his height, was unable to compensate. He did, however, make the tackle a couple yards shy of the endzone. As a tackler, Cissoko tends to focus on the hit, rather than wrapping up the ballcarrier. However, on the occasion that Cissoko wasn't able to get a clean shot on the carrier, he wisely used his arms to take out the legs. Cissoko chased down two sweep plays in the backfield, one of them on a shoestring tackle.
There is more: Campbell is very large, Sims might be destined for TE, and more pictures.
NJ LB Chris Pantale is a tight end to most schools, but Michigan is recruiting him as an enormous linebacker. At 6'6", 235 pounds, he's Crable-sized. Michigan has a good shot:
"My favorites would probably be Boston College, Virginia and Michigan," he said.
Pantale just returned from a trip to Michigan and Michigan State with his father, Bill. ... At Michigan, Pantale walked into the legendary Schembechler Hall and immediately felt the rich football tradition. He met with head coach Lloyd Carr and linebacker coach Steve Szabo, who said he sees Pantale as a strong side linebacker.
"Then I got a tour of the Big House, 107,000 seats," Pantale said. "It was unbelievable. The trip was really good for me to be able to help narrow my choices."
It's still Cal, Michigan, and Nebraska for AZ CB Marc Anthony:
"I have two official visits set up. I am going to Nebraska on September 14th for the USC game and September 21st for the Penn State game at Michigan."
"I think I will take an official before that. We are working to try and get that one set up for an official to Cal in September. It's not confirmed yet, though."
Cal is at Oregon on the 29th, so Michigan will get the last visit. Given his report of a Michigan lead after camp, other articles in which he's admitted that Nebraska trails Cal and Michigan, and the visit pattern I think Anthony is a very good bet to be the second corner in the class. Anthony just picked up a fourth star from Rivals; Scout still has him at three.
The rest of the above articles are fluffy profiles without much in the way of news.
One final note: you can file this under "specious internet rumors," but RecruitingPlanet's thread on JB Fitzgerald recently acquired a post from a man who claims a connection:
I have a close friend who coaches at WWPB (his HS). Says it looks *VERY* good for Blue. Also said he is a great kid and very smart.
This is the conventional wisdom on Fitzgerald; it's nice to have it reinforced. He is also visiting for Penn State; no other visits are set yet.
Someone managed to track down elusive PA CB Jarred Holley and get a distressing list:
The number of offers he received from Division I schools skyrocketed, and now the 5-11, 178-pound Holley has defending national champion Florida recruiting him heavily, in addition to Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina State, Stanford, and Rutgers -- just to name the schools on his final list for consideration.
State is highlighted because dollars to donuts that's supposed to be just "Michigan." A guy from Pennsylvania does not have Florida, Virginia, Stanford, Georgia Tech, and Michigan State on one list. (Also the previous articles, vague as they were, implied Michigan was a factor while offering no mention of State.) Think this is a reporter error. Holley's still a long way from making a decision.
...is your kicker:
"As of right now, Jason Gingell will be doing field goals and I will be doing kickoffs," kicker Bryan Wright said Saturday at U-M's fan day at Michigan Stadium.
Gingell, Wright and K.C. Lopata were competing for the open position and, according to Gingell and Wright, they were informed by the coaches on Thursday of the decisions.
"I always kept my hopes up and knew with Garrett leaving, it would be open," said Gingell, a 5-foot-9, 191-pound senior from Northville who played with U-M long snapper Sean Griffin at Detroit Catholic Central. "What the coaches look for is consistency ... It's better at the end of camp to finish better and it was more important to be consistent at the end of camp instead of at the beginning and I was at the end."
I would prefer to see Wright, a redshirt freshman on scholarship, take the job, but I'll let him miss a couple 27-yarders against Appalachian State before I bust out the tinfoil hat.
-- Among the other position battles, freshman cornerback Troy Woolfolk said Morgan Trent and Johnny Sears are the starting corners.
"I'm at second string at cornerback, trying to work my way up there," Woolfolk said.
He said the mental part of the game, especially learning to read his keys, is the biggest challenge.
-- Right guard Alex Mitchell said his right knee, which he "tweaked in a practice" last week, is improving during rehab and he hopes to return for the Oregon game on Sept. 8.
Don't think the Woolfolk thing is particularly meaningful except as an indication that Doug Dutch is never going to see the field ever, but it would be nice to have Mitchell available for a potentially scary game against Oregon.
Update: Also, Carson Butler says he's not buried in the doghouse:
A six-game starter in 2006, Butler led all Michigan tight ends with 19 catches. Despite his extended absence this off-season, the redshirt sophomore said he should be able to contribute to the Wolverines in short order.
"I feel like I'm back in the mix," he said. "Not too far away."
Anyone out there get something useful from Fan Day? Like, say "Johnny Sears will be an All-American?" Bueller?
Yea, these are the times that try men's souls. The Big Ten Network is probably not coming to many people who would like to watch the Appalachian State game. But the internet is here to help.
Options other than the bar:
1. MGoVideo. Remember MGoVideo.com? You should. It's pretty cool: a bittorrent tracker focused exclusively on Michigan athletics. I have emailed the site's operator about plans for the opening weekend:
Something should be up about two or three hours after the game. I've suggested a 1.5GBish avi and then maybe a DVD later in the week for big games but I don't have any clear agreement with the uploader yet.
Torrents tend to go faster when more people are active on them and there are plans for FTP sharing to get a number of seeders up and going, so this has the potential to be a relatively rapid answer to the problem. You probably wouldn't get the game down until Sunday morning, but it's not like Appalachian State or EMU is really in doubt anyway. I will post a link to the torrent as soon as it becomes available on Saturday. For you to take advantage of it you'll need to download one of the many BitTorrent clients -- I use Azureus -- but from there it will be a matter of clicking and waiting.
Positives: reliable, good quality copy of the game.
Negatives: takes a long time. Dubious legality.
2. Sopcast. I don't know much about this "sopcast" thing but I do know that soccer dorks use it to watch games from all over the world thanks to the the valiant efforts of a few guys with massive upload bandwidth. Essentially, it's a slingbox that you broadcast to the internet at large. I don't have the time (arrrgh previews arrrrgh) to set this up myself, but anyone with the technical ability and resources to set up a sopcast of Appalachian State, please let me know and I'll put up links to the appropriate items.
Negatives: could blow up. Scalability questions. Dubious legality.
On the "dubious legality": no one's going to track you down because you downloaded the Appalachian State game. At some point copyright owners might attempt to shut down the trackers or sopcasters, but there's no precedent for anyone taking action against a downloader AFAIK. Unless you are really amazingly paranoid it should be of no concern.
Who is overrated?
The easiest thing to do here is present The Hoosier Report's argument for Georgia:
To some degree, my rationale for ranking the Bulldogs #5 (as opposed to #14 in the Blogpoll at large) is inconsistent with above. UGa returns only 3 defensive starters. Consistent with my other logic, the Bulldogs do return QB Matthew Stafford, who should be better (of course, being worse would be almost impossible). In the SEC East, even compared to defending champion Florida, I trust Richt's track record at Georgia more than I trust the track record of any other coach/program. Last year was Georgia's worst season since Richt's first season, 2001. My hunch is that Georgia will rebound. That's good enough for the preseason, right?
Well... no! No, it isn't. Witness: we've got the three returning starters from the defense that kept Georgia afloat last year, a red flag from a clever theorem, and the low likelihood of a true sophomore with an almost 1:2 TD-INT ratio carrying a team anywhere except a Year of Considerable Pain . But this is the trump card:
Because of injuries, four true or redshirt freshmen are playing on the first-team offensive line right now.
In all, Georgia is down to eight scholarship linemen. None of the injuries is too serious.Projected starters Chester Adams, a senior, and Scott Haverkamp, a junior college transfer, should be back from ankle injuries within a couple of days. In the meantime, redshirt freshman defensive lineman Kiante Tripp was moved to the offensive line Tuesday.
Haverkamp is a first-year player, and Adams is at a new position and in a new role as a leader. Their brief departures from the practice field have shown just how tenuous Georgia's grasp on success up front is.
"I told myself after 2003 it wouldn't happen again," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt said.
But the thin red line happened in 2006 and now, as proven the past few days, could easily happen again in 2007.
"We got pretty slim out there for a while last year," said Davis, a redshirt freshman. "And it is looking a little scary out there now."
It could be downright frightening if you look at it from the perspective of quarterback Matthew Stafford. There's a strong chance both tackle positions will be held down by true freshmen.
Trinton Sturdivant is almost a lock to start at left tackle, on Stafford's blind side. Clint Boling is making a push to play at the right tackle. (If the latter happened, Adams would move back to his natural guard position.)
And the learning curve is Everest-steep. Georgia kicks off the season against two teams with high hopes, Oklahoma State and South Carolina.
This is going to be bad. Very, very bad. Unless Stafford matures immediately (chances of this...
...are slim) or the Georgia offensive line turns into Christmas Miracle Voltron, the offense is going to be just as bad as it was last year when Georgia was wildly fortunate to finish 9-4. With a nearly all-new defense, replicating even that record looks like a longshot. The only reason to rank the Dawgs appears to be historical inertia.
I'm also highly dubious about Auburn for similar reasons. SMQB's brilliant "Life on the Margins" series is a preseason feature that explores the particularly lucky and unlucky teams of the previous year. Auburn comes in for a bludgeoning:
Sounding the alarm at least as loud as anything in that chart [which showed Auburn outgained significantly in four separate wins] is this: Auburn was 6-2 in the SEC, yet was outgained by about 33 yards per conference game (Vanderbilt, 1-7, was outgained by 24.7 ypg). Not only were the Tigers incredibly opportunistic â€“ the great turnover margin, the pass interference no-call against LSU, a defensive and a special teams touchdown against Florida, the onside kick at South Carolina, short field scores in rock-bottom offensive efforts against 'Bama and Nebraska â€“ but they were the only team in the conference that couldn't also argue about the one that got away, because their two losses were unambiguous blowouts at the hands of Arkansas and Georgia, both starting true freshman quarterbacks on the road.
Brandon Cox has never impressed and he regressed badly towards the end of 2006. He threw 19 interceptions, the same as Curtis Painter. Also, Auburn has a bit of a problem on the offensive line, too. One starter returns; true freshman Lee Ziemba is the probable starter at one tackle spot. Other freshmen dot the two-deep in uncomfortable places like wide receiver, safety, and center. I think 15 is pretty generous even though they were 11-2 last year. I can see ranking them somewhere at the tail end of the poll.
Who is underrated?
Arkansas. It's odd that the most hyped player in the country finds his team in need of this sort of defending, but apparently he does. The offense returns virtually intact, down only two offensive linemen and Mitch Mustain, still in possession of McFadden, Felix Jones, and Marcus Monk, three men undoubtedly raised in a secret laboratory somewhere. Even though the Hogs couldn't throw worth a damn last year, they still finished 29th in total offense. If Casey Dick can just elevate himself to slight competence...
Arkansas is suffering from a sort of inverse Charles Rogers Theorem effect, I think, after losing their final three games of the year. But I submit these facts to you: LSU was outgained in its victory and the final margin came courtesy a kick return touchdown. Wisconsin was outgained nearly two-to-one but managed to hang on to the Citrus Bowl. (Florida did outplay Arkansas, although that backbreaking Reggie Fish punt muff screams "alternate history fork point".)
Perhaps it's just my natural skittishness as a Michigan fan that has to actually face this team, but Oregon also seems low to me. Again, this is a team that finished the year poorly, in Oregon's case spectacularly so. The Ducks lost their last four games, the finale a 30-point loss to a pretty meh BYU team, and finished 6-7 only because of one of the all-time refereeing gaffes in college football history. Plus, their quarterback spent the summer screwing around with baseball. But, again, Life on the Margins reveals a major discrepancy:
Oregon is a classic "margin" team because of these two very relevant statistics:
Yardage Margin in Pac Ten Games: + 136.4
Turnover Margin in Pac Ten Games: - 13
The first number was by far the best in the conference. The second number was by far the worst. The second number is probably also more important: Oregon's ten-win team in 2005, for example, only outgained conference opponents by about 77 yards per game, good but well below last y
ear's team, yet it challenged for the BCS because it was also plus-13 in turnover margin.
SMQB goes on to point out that the reason for that -13 has much to do with Dennis Dixon's propensity for spectacularly bad interceptions and that a good deal about this season hinges on his ability to fix this problem. Will he? Dunno. That baseball thing has to give Duck fans the heebie-jeebies. But he is a senior with lots of starting experience and has a wicked set of skill position players to work with. The defense? I don't know. But Oregon's crap 2006 record has one clear cause that should get fixed. I expect a major bounce.
Thanks for your coverage on the everlasting standoff between the BTN and Comcast. It seems like the whole thing hinges on placement on basic cable inside the BT footprint. Good to know, but mostly irrelevant to someone like me outside the footprint who already subscribes to the Comcast sports tier. I say mostly, because although it seems that both sides are in agreement that it should be on the sports tier outside the footprint, I have heard no confirmation and fear it may be held up until the overall agreement is signed. Have you heard anything solid from either side regarding the availability of the network outside the footprint? I live in DC and vividly recall a season's worth of Washington Nationals games being lost because of a dispute between Comcast and the Mid Atlantic Sports Network. (Not that you or I care about the Nationals, but it shows a willingness on Comcast's part to play hardball (HA! I kill me.) when it comes to televising local
One other issue -- I saw that the BTN will be regionalizing multiple games played at the same time. It would be the ultimate insult to me if I actually got the BTN and then it showed the PSU game instead of Beloved Michigan. The BTN website tries to assuage fears of this by stating: "Whenever the Big Ten Network is producing more than one game at a time, cable and satellite providers that have agreed to carry the Big Ten Network will be offered the chance to carry the additional games via "overflow" channels." What the hell is an "overflow channel"? And how likely is it that a DC Comcast provider is going to pay to put UM - App State on an "overflow channel"? I'm guessing slim to none.
Conclusion: This blows as much as those This is Big Ten Country ads I saw on the BTN website.
Again, thanks for fighting the good fight.
I'm not an expert on the arcane jargon of the TV business, but I'm pretty sure that an overflow channel is one of those channels in the distant reaches of your 1,000 channel selection that is either dormant or full of obscure PPV shows. If we make the (potentially large) assumption that the cable companies and Big Ten Network come to a satisfactory resolution, the good news is that the BTN is offering everything it provides at one price. So the $1.10 (or whatever) the cable company pays covers the BTN, the HD version of the BTN, the video on demand, and the overflow channels. The only reason a company wouldn't provide overflow broadcasts is if they simply couldn't push the bits, something that seems extremely improbable. FWIW, DirectTV has already agreed to carry the overflow.
More BTN, this from a second source that confirms the Comcast-BTN breakdown:
I'm a frequent commenter at mgoblog. I have a little insight into the BTN situation that I've actually been meaning to email to you but forgot until I saw your most recent post on the Fanhouse. The conversation I'm referencing took place 2 weeks ago, so all quotes are paraphrased.
I was home (in Novi) a couple of weekends ago when I happened to run into an old neighbor who has either been involved with or is knowledgeable on (or both) the negotiations between Comcast and BTN. We were catching up and the conversation eventually turned to the BTN, and whether or not I was going to be able to see the games placed on the network where I live (I recently graduated and moved to suburban Philadelphia in New Jersey).
He made several points in the conversation that assured me the BTN people have their heads on straight. Among them were that Comcast is forcing people to have Lifetime, WE, Oxygen, Home Shopping Network, Versus, the Golf Channel, and other Comcast owned sports networks on their basic tier and refusing to carry BTN. He said that he presumes the reason that Comcast isn't willing to carry BTN on basic is because it's going to set a precedent for other conferences and sports leagues to follow in the Big Ten's footsteps. What that will do is eat away at games Comcast shoves on its smaller regionally owned networks. Basically, it's not about the customer, it's about Comcast protecting the rights to carry games (and other content) on networks it owns.
I'm sure you were able to figure out (or were told) most of the information I just described above. He did tell me some things I hadn't heard before. He said, "between you and me, if Comcast was willing to negotiate the $1.10 figure, this thing would be over tomorrow. They have no intent to put our network on basic cable." He reiterated that the $1.10 figure wasn't out of line based on the content they were going to provide, but that the BTN is willing to negotiate. I told him that I hoped the BTN didn't cave because I hate Comcast and everything unholy that it stands for. His response to that was to tell me that the BTN has every intention to take this stalemate into the season. He said most of the larger regional cable providers were waiting to see what kind of deal Comcast was going to get before negotiating their own deals with the BTN. He said that once the standoff goes into the season that Congressmen from every state that is home to a Big Ten university were going to get involved (or possibly going to get involved, I forget) and at that point they figure a deal will get done.
Basically, unless there is a dramatic break through, come week 1 of the football season, nobody is going to get this channel. The BTN is banking on public outrage, getting Congress involved, and then the plan is to take it from there. I don't believe that the network is going to end up anywhere other than basic within the Big Ten footprint. It's pretty clear to me, at least, that the problem here lies with Comcast, and that's not surprising to me in the slightest.
frequent commenter Matt who says his roomates Jeremy and Phil can f themselves
I don't have much to offer here: this is not good. I emailed the BTN Media Relations guy who I've shot the occasional question to about the BTN after the Silverman interview and he confirmed the grimness as well. I brought up the possibility this was posturing in earlier posts about the breakdown, but why only posture at Comcast and not Time-Warner, etc.? The chances this gets resolved before the season hover near zero.
So, it's contingency plan time. I'll put up a post on alternatives soon. Our bandwidth may be able to salvage this for the afflicted.
With regards to the Diallo Johnson punt return thing, he may be getting a bad rap. I remember he was good for 13-14 yards per return, every return. Just freakishly consistant. Very nice after Woodson's "most exciting two yards in football" returns. I seem to remember some problems with returners catching the ball that season as well, though I don't have any facts on that and whether it was Whitley, Bellamy or one of the Currys. Anyway, my point is that anyone who handles all the punts cleanly and you can count on for 13-14 yards per return is okay. Sort of a Mike Hart of punt returns. We were spoiled by Breaston who was that plus the ability to break one. Johnson probably wasn't going to bust one, but he was always going forward. I'm sure Lloyd liked that about him.
Andrew might be right here: Diallo Johnson, surprisingly, averaged 10.6 yards a return over the course of his career. This doesn't live up to the numbers put up by Breaston but is about what Julius Curry (10.9) and Marquise Walker (10.8) did. And just about everyone beat the pants of one Charles Woodson and his 8.7. But none of them ever did this:
(Note: looking this up caused me to stumbl
e across a feature on MGoBlue I did not know existed: a prodigious database of player stats that goes back to the 50s. Need to know Roosevelt Smith's career rushing average? No problem! It's 4.5 YPC.)
Dear Unverified Voracity,
"Long time listener (reader), first time caller (emailer)."
I have a quick question/comment on the injury of Alex Mitchell. Do you not think it's possible they move Boren back to RG and let Moose get some snaps in? Or... with all the talk about trying O-lineman at different spots, move Moosman to RG? What's the deal with this guy? He was the most highly recruited C/G of the bunch (Molk,Ciulla,etc.) with equal or more experience than all. Also, I've seen him around and he looks like a beast. Can you share some knowledge?
It appears that the first option at RG without Alex Mitchell is Jeremy Cuilla and, should Cuilla go down, I would bet on Mark Ortmann drawing into the lineup with Schilling (the projected starter at RT) moving inside. One of the things a center has to do is get all the line calls right, so it's not as interchangeable as you might think. Moosman has gotten some meaningful praise -- it wouldn't surprise me to see him draw into the lineup when Kraus graduates -- but Cuilla has a couple years experience on him and has seen substantial playing time when the starters have gotten dinged. He'd probably be all right if pressed into a full-time starting job.
Fox executive Bob Thompson said Thursday morning that he is "100 percent confident" that no deal will be struck with Comcast by Sept. 1, when the BTN will telebvise six football games.
"Having been through 15 of these (launches), I have a feel for the way things go," said Thompson, the president of Fox National Cable Sports Networks and a BTN board member. "There really has been no negotiation for a month."
This is potentially posturing designed to increase DirecTV flight, but it's also a direct statement specific to Comcast. Elsewhere there is mention of significant hope deals with other providers get done.
"We have never made a proposal to them at $1.10," Thompson said in a telephone interview. "It has always been less than that. Other than expanded basic in the footprint, everything else is negotiable. We have gone the extra mile to create opportunities for meaningful negotiation to happen.
"$1.10 is the sticker price for a car."
If the Big Ten Network is really truly available for a number significantly below $1.10 (say 70 or 80 cents) that seems hard to justify keeping off given the prices of other RSNs, the amount of content on the BTN, and the distribution of CSS. But: posturing, maybe.
When Michigan and Ohio State rotated off Purdue's schedule in 2005, the eyes of a nation (and a blog) envisioned ill-gotten Rose Bowls or at least Januaries spent in Florida. This did not so much happen. Instead the Boilermakers' big prize was an Insight Bowl berth against a Maryland team that had scratched its way to bowl eligibility despite being good in not one statistical category. Three hours and many errant passes later, Purdue's two-year reprieve from the Big Two ended in a 24-7 loss. Cue the first serious mutterings about Joe Tiller's job since the great mustachioed one rolled in from Wyoming.
It wasn't supposed to be like this. I hate to remind readers convinced the words that appear in this space are even slightly useful and edifying about this, but in the above-linked preview I was preparing for a Boilermaker onslaught:
Oh yow. Loaded for bear are the Boilers and it is going to piss people off. You have not two but three quarterback-splintering defensive ends, linebackers that in any other year would be amongst the best in the league, a quarterback I like an awful lot, and a set of wide receivers that finally has the mutant death freaks Tiller's been waiting his entire life for. ...
mgoblog would consider Purdue a serious contender for the conference title even if they played Michigan and Ohio State.
Purdue ended up out of the bowl picture and inaugurated MGoBlog's burgeoning tradition of picking one Big Ten team, overrating the hell out of it, and watching it implode spectacularly. Why did this happen? In large part, horrible play from Brandon Kirsch, Curtis Painter (Painter did have a valid excuse: extreme youth; also he improved last year), and every single back seven defender who suited up for Purdue over the past two years.
Quarterbacks occasionally blow up and take whole teams with them, but the defense thing was odd. Just as the Big Ten was getting used to the idea of Brock Spack cobbling together a functional, often tough defense out of rubber bands and Sharpies, the bottom dropped out. At some point after Stu Schweigert left Purdue apparently stopped recruiting defensive backs, instead scrambling to field a roster of black-clad smurfs no doubt pulled directly from upper-level mechanical engineering courses. Unfortunately for the Boilers, World of Warcraft loot does not spontaneously materialize when you jam your flash drive into your ear. Thus two years of unrelenting failure to defend the pass (111th in 2005, 104th in 2006) and -- once a host of fine defensive linemen graduated, leaving Anthony Spencer and nothing else whatsoever on the line -- one year of the same utter failure to defend the run.
All those guys are back, as are virtually all the other guys on the other side of the ball. But so are the big boys. Purdue is going to have to run to stand still.
Please do not be fooled by the numbers at right. Purdue's seemingly explosive 2006 offense was greatly aided by the schedule -- which brought forth a I-AA team, two MAC teams, and Notre Dame but not Michigan and Ohio State -- and the Purdue defense, which was so bad that it forced the offense to go for points and yards at all times even against the dregs of the schedule. Purdue scraped by Miami (Ohio) 38-31, beat Ball State 38-28, and even gave up 35 points to I-AA Indiana State.
Against the tougher defenses on the schedule, all two of them, Purdue was fairly inept. When Wisconsin came calling, Purdue put up three points. Penn State shut the Boilers out. Proceed with caution.
Rating: 3. Remarkably, redshirt junior Curtis Painter has now flailed his way through one and a half seasons as Purdue's starter without proving himself particularly competent or getting yanked by the notoriously trigger-happy Tiller. Chances are a third season of muddling will end with Painter holding a clipboard; it's now or never.
Painter did improve radically in his second year as a starter, but he had a long, long way to go to get there. In 2005 Purdue adopted the closest thing to a run-first mentality they've had in the Tiller era, going with a dubiously successful spread option game based on Nevada's "pistol" formation where the quarterback often lines up halfway between the center and a traditional shotgun snap. This almost achieved run-pass parity -- Purdue threw only 16 more times than they ran it in '05. Painter came on in relief of Brandon Kirsch midway through the season and blazed his way to 96th in passer efficiency, completing 52% of his passes despite playing in Tiller's sophisticated short passing game and throwing five picks to three touchdowns.
Things did improve last year. Purdue went back to its gunslinging ways -- Painter's 530 attempts were only exceeded by the crazed systems at New Mexico State, Hawaii, and Texas Tech -- and Painter's completion percentage was an almost respectable 59%. Yards per attempt were an above-average 7.5, and 22 touchdowns is an impressive total even if it came paired with 19 interceptions. But... not so fast my friend! This is where Purdue's improbably soft schedule deceives. Take a look at their performance when only conference games are considered (all ranks are compared to the rest of the Big Ten):
|All Games||Conf. Only|
|Comp %||59.5% (T-3rd)||57.4% (6th)|
|YPA||7.5 (5th)||6.7 (6th)|
|Int||20 (11th)||12 (T-9th)|
|TD||24 (2nd)||9 (7th)|
Purdue had a decidedly mediocre passing attack despite missing the second- and third-best pass defenses in the conference*. Any appearance of "good" is pure vapor.
And who can you track this to? Purdue had a veteran line returning last year, one that gave up relatively few sacks (Purdue was 22nd in sacks allowed). Dorien Bryant and company appear to be a highly competent and deep set of receivers. Jaycen Taylor and Korey Sheets combined for over 1,400 yards at better than 5 YPC. Everything appeared to be in place for a genuinely explosive offense, not one that would roll up big yards against Indiana State and then clunk out three versus Wisconsin and zero versus Penn State.
The inescapable conclusion is that Painter is the issue with the Purdue offense. I noted my skepticism re: Painter last year and it's worth reiterating:
What does '06 hold for the now-sophomore Painter? Probably additional pain. Painter's iffy stats were gained against a who's-who of D-I's worst pass defenses (MSU, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois) and Penn State, who killed Painter to the tune of 6-17 for 60 yards. His last statistical reference point,
high school, doesn't imply he'll make a great leap forward: as a senior he only completed 51% of his passes. The implication is that Painter's probably unsuited to Purdue's dink-and-dunk passing game, as he either failed at in in high school or was asked to bomb it deep instead. Either way it bodes unwell. Purdue should be happy if he makes gradual progress this year with an eye towards proficiency in '07.
There was gradual progress, and this is the "eye towards competency" year. But given that dubious 57% completion rate in conference -- one that probably would have been around 55% if the Big Ten played a round robin -- and Painter's wretched spate of unforced errors against a horrible Maryland pass defense in the bowl game, I remain skeptical even a thoroughly veteran Painter will ever be more than average. Dude just can't throw straight.
*(as measured in terms of yards per attempt.)
Tailback & Fullback
Rating: 4. Fullbacks don't exist at Purdue, so this unit consists solely of senior Jaycen Taylor, the nominal starter, and junior Kory Sheets, his nominal backup. Last year the pair split matters almost right down the middle:
You can see that Taylor was more effective as both a runner and receiver despite seeing scanty time in Purdue's opening triptych against I-AA and MAC foes; this is why he is the nominal starter going into the year. That distinction is going to be ceremonial as Tiller rotates the pair to keep them fresh. Sheets is slightly bigger and more of a straight-ahead guy (though he's no pounder, he is the default choice on short yardage); Taylor is the shiftier one and the possessor of the headshot at right, which was immediately admitted to the inaugural Big Ten Headshot Hall of Fame along with J Leman's remarkable mullet-flag combo.
There's good reason to expect continued success for the Boiler platoon even in the face of stiffer competition. The duo was good even against the tougher run defenses on the schedule, combining for 120 yards on 28 carries versus Illinois, 88 yards on just 17 carries versus Wisconsin, and 59 yards on just 14 carries versus Penn State. Though Purdue's heavily skewed run-pass distribution (57% passes; by way of comparison zone-mad Michigan ran 57% of the time last year) no doubt helped those averages, few teams could hope to match Purdue's productivity against that level of opposition. Purdue is in good hands here, even if they choose to use said hands sparingly.
Wide Receiver & Tight Ends
Rating: 4. It's hard to believe Dorien Bryant is still suiting up for Purdue. He's a perfect storm of circumstance for the Brooks Bollinger Memorial Eighth Year Senior Award: a major contributor as a freshman -- probably Purdue's second best wideout even then -- he was spectacularly decapitated by Ernest Shazor in the waning moments of a tight game against Michigan, fumbling just as Purdue neared game-winning field goal range. Then the Boilers dropped off the schedule for two years. All I have are fuzzy memories of the guy getting killed some time ago and a vague recognition of his existence well off my radar. By all rights he should be in his second year in the NFL (or, more likely, Arena League) by now.
But he is not and thus the Boilers have what's probably their deepest and most intimidating wide receiver corps in the Tiller era. Bryant alone has 167 catches and 2,028 yards over the past two years. An excellent fit for Tiller's YAC-heavy spread attack, Bryant is a slightly less explosive version of Steve Breaston with reliable hands. Junior Greg Orton leapt into the starting lineup a year ago, catching 58 balls for 790 yards. Orton's 6'3" and possesses deep speed and leaping ability, a dangerous complement to Bryant. He's also damn physical:
Even wide receiver Greg Orton ... mentioned the physical play when asked how he improved during camp.
"By being more physical," he said. "Coach called us out on the physicality, so we made a lot of physical plays."
Olivia Newton John has nothing on these guys.
Most non-Purdue offenses would stop there, but the Boilers also have TE Dustin Keller and sophomore Selwyn Lymon. Lymon was a top 100 recruit a couple years ago who picked Purdue over Michigan. His 33 catches and 580 yards as a redshirt freshman are impressive numbers, but they'd be more impressive if Lymon hadn't done almost half of his damage in one ridiculous game against Notre Dame in which he had 8 catches, 238 yards, and two touchdowns. After that outburst and a decent showing (4 catches, 60 yards) against Iowa he clunked back to earth, catching just twelve balls over the last eight games of the season. He's got the same size and athleticism Orton does, though he's a bit of a improbable injury magnet. Last season he missed some time after getting a paintball in the eye; this offseason it was the more conventional but more dangerous nightclub stabbing. Would someone get the kid a Wii or something? Check that, he'd probably just throw the controller into his spleen. Make it a 360.
Rating: 4. The right side of the line, including senior center Robbie Powell, returns intact. Right guard Jordan Grimes was second-team All Big Ten a year ago and is getting some All-American buzz, for what that's worth; Junior tackle Sean Sester is entering his third year as a starter. Experienced and bearing at least a moderate amount of hype, this trio is a major strength.
The left side of the line, however, is a question mark. Gone are tackle Mike Otto and guard Uche Nwaneri; projected Otto replacement Garrett Miller missed spring practice with a shoulder injury and just underwent a knee scope. He's out for at least the beginning of the season and perhaps beyond. Junior Dan Zaleski is the man drawn into the lineup; his height (6'4") is something of a red flag at left tackle, where 6'5" is usually considered a minimum
these days. There's some coach-puffing here; I doubt it's legit. The Boilers have to hope Miller gets healthy.
Meanwhile, three underclassmen compete for Nwaneri's job. I know nothing of them save their recruiting rankings, which were mediocre. Even that is of scanty predictive value: offensive linemen are notoriously hard to project, especially once you get past a few specimens that are obviously marked for stardom. At least there are three of them. One should prove adequate.
The operative theory here has always been that Purdue's defense is consistently underrated because they tend to face more opponent possessions playing opposite the frenetic Tiller offense, but last year they were just plain awful all around. A completely green secondary existed only to watch opponents sail into the endzone unopposed, and it was the strongest unit on the team not named "Anthony Spencer." The run defense ceased to exist, ceding nearly five yards a carry and finishing 114th in the country. They gave up 191 yards per game overall and 225(!!!) in Big Ten play despite missing the Big Two. Putridity would have been a step up. Disgusting wretchedness would have been a pleasant distraction. Mere averageness would have been celebrated like James Laurinaitis coming within a mile of Brent Musberger's turgid manhood. It was bad.
So the eternal conundrum: is it good to return nine starters when they were so resolutely awful a year ago, especially when one of the non-returners is Spencer? Since many of the starters in question were non-redshirted sophomores and freshmen with very good excuses for sucking like "can't drive," "doesn't need to shave" and "still kind of into the Wiggles" the tentative answer in this case is yes. But please don't hold me to that. I mean, my god... the triple digits!
Rating: 3. Only one starter departs, but he happened to be the only competent player on last year's defense and a first round NFL draft pick: Anthony Spencer. Spencer was some kind of hero a year ago, collecting a staggering 26.5 TFLs and 10.5 sacks despite being the only identifiable threat on the Purdue defense. He even picked up six pass breakups. Now he's gone; surprisingly there might be a player or two left behind.
Spencer's bookend, senior Cliff Avril, played Biggs to Spencer's Woodley with six sacks and 15 TFL of his own. A glance at the game-by-game stats shows a slight bias towards the delicious cupcakes Purdue opposed but not a major one. Already established as a fair-to-pretty-good Big Ten defensive end, Avril will push for All Conference honors in his final year. If he gets there it'll probably be second team, but that's not out of the question.
Opposite Avril will be either senior Mike McDonald or junior Alex Magee (pictured). Normally the scanty playing time McDonald received would be a major red flag, but he was a JUCO transfer a year ago and defensive end was already in capable hands. He's got a year to do something; replicating Spencer's production is highly improbable, but he's not necessarily going to be the suck. His contribution is a total unknown. He'll miss the early part of the season with an ankle injury.
Magee, on the other hand, has seen the field but as a defensive tackle. At nearly 300 pounds he's not going to edge-rush anyone and will be a liability against the pass (he had 2.5 sacks in extensive time at tackle last year) but should be decent against the run.
The reason Magee is moving to an unnatural postion is Mike Neal's healthy return. Neal was injured prior to the Notre Dame game and missed a good section of the season; even when he returned he wasn't fully healthy. Now he is and has claimed a starting spot:
"He's going to be an anchor,'' Spack said. "He commands a double team and is athletic enough where he's going to give some centers a hard time. Mike can make plays. He's really an end in a tackle's body.
"A huge part of our front this year will be our tackles and he's going to be a big part of that.''
Maybe this is true? He did blow a midly competent returning starter out to end.
Redshirt junior Ryan Baker, he of the elaborate and elongated recruiting saga (Baker waffled between Purdue and Notre Dame, finally committing a month and a half after Signing Day), started last year and proved an adept pass rusher for a defensive tackle with six sacks. That much penetration coupled with only 2.5 non-sack TFLs brings his run defense into question, though. Someone on the line has to be at least partially culpable for the run defense. It wasn't Spencer, and it probably wasn't Avril either. Baker's a little light for a DT at 288 and only had 25 tackles last year. Number can be deceiving for DTs, but might he be one of Purdue's many issues against the ground game? If McDonald is healthy and effective Baker might be relegated to passing downs.
Rating: 2. This has been a major sore spot for the Boilers over the past few years and things probably aren't going to get any better in 2007. Senior Stanford Keglar, when his first name isn't busy mocking Michigan's academics, spends his time starting -- he's entering his fourth year doing it -- and watching opponents motor by him as he flails his stubby arms. In three years he has nine TFLs. As Mike Valenti would say, "MAKE PLAYS!"
Middle linebacker Dan Bick led Purdue with 95 tackles a year ago but has had a tough time staying on the field. He returned to practice just days ago after battling a nasty neck injury. Still on anti-inflammatories, Bick is no guarantee to remain on the field.
Weakside linebacker and redshirt junior Anthony Heygood was a running back until half of the 2006 season had elapsed. He was moved to linebacker, picked up six tackles, and now projects as Purdue's best option there:
"He's clearly our best weak-side linebacker," Purdue coach Joe Tiller said. "And if you grade him out over the entire spring, he was our best linebacker overall."
I suppose it's not impossible that Heygood pupates from little-used running back to standout linebacker in under a year, but if history is any indication -- remember Travis Thomas' ill-fated move for ND -- that Tiller quote probably means "our linebackers are bad" instead of "Heygood is good."
Rating: 2. Defensive coordinator Brock Spack is a straight-talking, mustachioed sort who's prone to frank evaluations of his charges. His word is far more valuable than that of most coaches when attempting to assess the strengths and weaknesses of a particular team, and he's got an interesting take on the much-maligned Purdue secondary:
"Our front seven must shut down the running game," Spack said. "All I hear about is our secondary, secondary, secondary. I'm so sick of it. The secondary didn't hurt us last year. Watch the tape, show me where it hurt us. We didn't give up many long balls last year.
"Where the secondary hurt us was when a long run broke, we'd whiff, miss a tackle. But the secondary didn't hurt us with the pass very often. We don't lose games because of our secondary, and they are the most improved part of our team."
Spack's at least somewhat wrong. Despite a respectable pass rush, Purdue finished 81st in opponent passer efficiency. Brady Quinn was 29 for 38 for 316 yards, Brian Cupito 20 for 34 for 205, Drew Tate 17 for 23 for 253. Colt Brennan laid unholy waste to the secondary: 33 for 48, 434 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Purdue's defensive incompetence was a ten-man operation with Anthony Spencer doing what he could, and the secondary shared in that.
But maybe he's not entirely off. 81st in opponent passer efficiency is the best ranking Purdue could muster last year outside of Spencer and his sacks, and the secondary figures to improve significantly from a year ago. The top five players return; last year each was thrown into the fire before the umbilical cord was cut. The crispy quintet:
- JUCO transfer Terrell Vinson, starting cornerback
- true freshman Royce Adams, starting cornerback
- true freshman David Pender, nickelback
- true freshman Brandon Erwin, starting free safety
- JUCO transfer Justin Scott, starting strong safety.
Not one of these players even had a spring practice to acclimate to the college game before being thrust into the starting lineup. The results were predictable.
This year things should improve, as freshmen thrust into starting lineups tend to do. As a bonus, Purdue also get to deploy the services of hyped safety Torii Williams, a star-crossed fellow who's missed the last two years with injury. He's unlikely to start behind two established players, but will provide another option in case of injury or continued suckitude from either starter. Six deep and now not entirely green, there's a possibility this unit experiences a remarkable turnaround. Or they could just continue being bad. Check back in November for my prediction.
Rating: 1. The departure of redshirt freshman Tim Dougherty for Louisville stings badly. He was in a tight competition with returning starter Chris Summers for the placekicking job that Summers was horrible at last year, going 8 for 20 and chopping years off Joe Tiller's life. There is one other option on the roster, true freshman Brody McKnight, but if he was third string behind the previous two and ends up starting chances are the Purdue field goal kickers will again be amongst the worst in the league. This is a spot at which Purdue would probably prefer not to return a starter.
Also a problem are the return units. Purdue was 99th on punts and 87th on kickoffs. This seems more likely to be a wholesale lack of blocking than any deficiency on the part of the returners, since the main guy taking kicks back was the explosive Bryant. Freshman corner Royce Adams returned the punts and did so poorly. Returns will likely be disappointing once again.
Punter Jared Armstrong, decent a year ago, returns.
The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
|2006||Int +||Fumb +||Sacks +||Int -||Fumb -||Sacks -|
|-0.07 (66th)||11||17||2.21 (56th)||20||9||1.43 (22nd)|
Despite a turnover number extremely close to zero there's a lot to look at here. Painter's interceptions should come down as he matures and makes better decisions, but that should be offset by a major fumble correction. Purdue was +8 a year ago, which is well into the realm of fortune unlikely to repeat. Expect this number to drop a bit. Well... don't "expect." TO margin is so low-event and swingy that you shouldn't expect anything, but chances are this is moderately negative at year's end.
Position Switch Starters
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.
Anthony Heygood is a half-season removed from being a fourth string running back; he's now the starting weakside linebacker. Alex Magee, 300 pound defensive tackle, may be a starting end.
Dumbest Thing In CFN Preview
What to watch for on offense: An unstoppable passing game.... with Dorien Bryant, Selwyn Lymon, Greg Orton and Dustin Keller returning, the passing game that ranked sixth nationally last year should be unstoppable.
Sixth nationally if you only pay attention to the most shallow indicators. CFN in a nutshell: an inch deep and a mile wide.
BONUS! This isn't from CFN but is too good to pass up:
Painter's accuracy wasn't the problem last season. Consistency with his accuracy was the problem.
The theory advanced is that Painter was good in some games and bad in others (which is true of every player in the country) but come on! Come on!
When I was in high school, an English teacher of mine showed us a documentary about Walt Whitman. It was the kind of documentary in which Alan Ginsberg made frequent appearances, once saying that because he had slept with this o
ther dude who had slept with some other dude who had slept with some other dude etc etc etc who had slept with Walt Whitman, he, Alan Ginsberg, had kind of sort of had sex with Walt Whitman. Which is all terribly exciting when you're Alan Ginsberg, I guess.
Anyway, all the interstitials in this thing were men hammering things and hammering things just like the fellow above. Every cut between interviews had ten to twenty seconds of men hammering things on anvils. And every one of them was completely, floppily naked. So, yeah. My associations with this picture are probably not the associations of people who attended Purdue.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
With 20 starters returning and reason to expect improvement from the vast majority of them, Purdue's ceiling is sky-high. If questions on the left side of the line are resolved satisfactorily, the only thing holding Purdue back from a Brees-era offense of terror is Curtis Painter's ability to take advantage of his proverbial weapons. The defense doesn't have anywhere near that sort of capability even in the rosiest point of view available, but there's reason to believe the secondary will improve greatly and sort of a vague hope the line could be okay to good, though the linebackers will probably be subpar at best. So I'm saying there's a chance Purdue is a serious threat to something other than Joe Tiller's job security. 10-2 can happen.
If Purdue's issue on the defense is not so much its vast (and now former) youth but rather a sheer lack of talent, last year's fiasco could repeat itself. This is really unlikely what with all the returning starters, but neither is an Illinois-like jump into the top 30 or so defenses a guarantee. Curtis Painter has the most inflated numbers in college football; if he plateaus the result could be ugly. With Purdue's MAC games against usual power Toledo and last year's champion Central Michigan, a humiliating loss there is possible, and limping through a 4-8 season not out of the question. Yes... between 10-2 and 4-8, this preview has basically abdicated on serious narrowing.
Painter's problems appear to be twofold:
- he's still learning not to throw into coverage
- he can't throw straight.
One expects the former to improve significantly as he goes into a second full year of starting. He should find the offense easier to command and significantly cut his interceptions. The latter, however, will remain an issue. The projection here is that he'll be totally average, the fourth or fifth best quarterback in the league. This should combine with two talented tailbacks and four excellent receiving options to create an offense that's actually good instead of 2006's fools gold as long as that left tackle thing ends up resolved satisfactorily.
The defense should improve greatly just because it would be hard not to. But I have a hard time seeing any unit on it above average except maybe -- maybe -- the defensive line. A running back starts at WLB; no one emerged in the secondary like Vontae Davis did at Illinois; Spencer is gone. I hesitate to offer any specific predictions with so much in flux, but... uh... totally mediocre, prone to getting battered into oblivion by big time run games, but average against the pass?
|9/1||@ Toledo||Probable win|
|9/8||Eastern Illinois||Functional DNP|
|9/15||Central Michigan||Probable win|
|9/22||@ Minnesota||Probable win|
|10/6||Ohio State||Probable loss|
|10/13||@ Michigan||Probable loss|
|11/3||@ Penn State||Probable loss|
|11/10||Michigan State||Probable win|
|11/17||@ Indiana||Probable win|
As you can tell by the above I see few games Purdue shouldn't either win or lose... but few games they couldn't win or lose, either. The Boilers look to be a clear step behind the big boys in conference but are eminently capable of upsetting any of them; they look a clear step ahead of the conference's bottom but capable of dropping a game to any of them. It'll probably even out to 8-4 and an Alamo Bowl berth. Getting there might be wild.
This is the part where we flesh out our opinions on specific teams. As part of the two-preseason-poll thing we have this: a roundtable in which people, bloggers and commenters alike, are invited to take a look at the preseason poll and answer the following questions:
Who is overrated?
Who is underrated?
This roundtable has a quick turnaround, so I'll be gathering responses for a roundup post Monday in which I'll attempt to summarize the general feeling and highlight the best reasons given. Get crackin'!
Oh, programming notes. Oh yes. So. Um. A few things:
- On the morning of the Appalachian State game you can catch me on WJR at 7:35 AM. Should be about ten minutes. More likely you'll be asleep, but...
- if you think that's a ridiculous time to get up I will also be on WAAM 1600 for their pregame show. Starts at 10 AM, tentatively scheduled for a half-hour. Also...
- This fall I will be on Channel 4's "Sports Final Edition" on a weekly basis. SFE runs at 11:30 Sunday nights (-ish, depending on Sunday Night Football's length). The first probably very nervous and horrible one will be this Sunday. It's only three minutes so chances of communicating useful information you don't know are probably pretty slim, but during the season there will be clips of plays and a sort of UFR-y breakdown of them, which will hopefully be cool. So, yeah. There's that. I am accepting donations of cigarettes and blindfolds.
Marques Slocum! Right. Facebook indicates that Marques Slocum is dinged in some fashion:
Marques 'Grand Marques' Slocumis f***in' mad right now cuz im f***in' hurt but its cool cuz ima be back real soon, ima grind through dis bitch! EARLY!
(BTW: Jesus, Marques, do you have to have every single available Facebook widget on your profile?) There was a post on the Rivals free board from "Master Raptor" -- who has been accurate in the past -- indicating that Slocum had a dislocated shoulder, but that was disputed. I submit that Slocum knows if he is hurt or not, so he is.
Yeah, whoops. MVictors has a nice review of HTTV 2007 with a salient criticism:
- No where did the guide break down Michigan's special team units. How is Zoltan going to win the Heisman if he doesn't get some mention this publications such as this?
This is true and it is my bad; it was like a week before publishing that I realized I had totally ignored special teams. But he likes the rest of the book! So does my Grandma! Buy it!