"You know how Kyle Flood still has a job? Yeah, all Jourdan."
[Editor's note: I am headed to a wedding in Milwaukee this weekend, and thus won't be able to put together mgo-worthy content for the rest of today. Instead, enjoy this excellent, research-heavy diary.]
First time poster, long time lurker. While procrastinating on various work projects, I’ve been dithering around with a data set on college football win-loss records. I’m the sort of guy who actually thinks HBS case studies are kinda neat, so futzing with this seemed like fun in its own twisted way. Then one of our fellow mgobloggers put up a really nice monte carlo simulation of the 2009 season (using a $500K piece of software no less) and I felt a little guilty about not posting some of my stuff online. So, here goes …
What sent me down this path was the whole topic of what our expectations should be for next year’s win total. Seems like the general consensus is somewhere between a 3-5 win improvement for next year. I am a Bill James devotee, so I began to wonder how realistic that was in a historical context (i.e., how many teams really improve that much in one year). My instinct was such occasions were not all that common. So, I spent a couple of hours pulling some data (30 years worth of W-L records for every D1A team, to be exact). Here are some summary conclusions and some things that I intend to research a little further and post about whenever the procrastination bug strikes again.
Turns out that big improvements in win totals from one year to another are more common than I thought. There were roughly 300 such cases since 1980. Considering that the data set is about 3300 team seasons, I thought this was pretty remarkable. In essence, the average team has at least one 4+ win improvement season every decade. Score one for optimism here.
Digging a little further, I took a look at extreme win total improvements (+6 wins or more). There were quite a few of these as well – 63 (or more than 2 per season). And they weren’t all MAC and Sun Belt teams either. 28 of those seasons were from teams in one of the six BCS conferences. The Big Ten had 6 such seasons:
- Northwestern 95
- Purdue 97
- Ohio St 02
- Penn St 05
- Illinois 07
- Minnesota 08 (EDIT: Missed the MN season in the first draft).
For those dreaming about the possibility of warm weather for New Years, at least there’s some historical precedent. Also, RichRod is responsible for one of those 63, West Virginia '02, which was +6. Which also happened in his second year after a 3-8 first season. I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’ …
For those who are curious, the biggest turnaround in the study (and most likely in college football history) is Hawaii 99 (+9). At +8 were Florida 80, San Jose St 86, Bowling Green 91, South Carolina 00, and Central Florida 05.
I also was wondering if the optimism about a BCS game in two years was rooted in reality. [Editor's note: I would have gone with "vague hope" instead of optimism.] For this, I am assuming the requirement is an 11+ win season. So, if we start with the assumption that this year ends up at 7 wins, we need another 4 win improvement next season to reach that.
Here, the historical precedent is less encouraging*. In the study there are only 5 cases of teams recording 2 consecutive seasons of 4+ win improvements: Colorado St in 89 and 90, Fullerton St in 84 and 85, Georgia Tech in 89 and 90 (culminating with a shared national title), UNLV in 83 and 84, and one other.
This last one should be your reason for optimism, as it is Tulane in 97 and 98. With OC Rich Rodriguez. 2-9 Tulane 96 became 12-0 Tulane 98 under that offense. The historical numbers may be stacked against us, but this staff has defied them once before.
Lastly, I wanted to highlight the three Michigan seasons that were caught by this analysis: 85, 97, and 06 (all +4).
See any themes here? If you named the three best defensive teams of the last 30 years, this is probably the list (with the possible exception of the 80 team). Does this sound like the 09 team to you? Yeah, me neither. Bummer.
I do see some decent parallels to the 85 and 06 teams, though. Both the 84 and 05 teams were plagued by injury hell and were extremely young, as was 08. Both the 85 and 06 teams ushered in a new era of offensive strategy (Bo discovered the forward pass with Harbaugh in 85, the zone stretch changed the running game in 06). For all intents and purposes, 09 is the first real glimpse we’ll have at RichRod’s full playbook so I’m willing to buy that as a philosophical change.
The defense going into both 85 and 06 had only two established stars (Mike Hammerstein/Brad Cochran, Lamarr Woodley/Leon Hall) and a bunch of question marks. Could Graham/Warren count as established stars? The 85 and 06 teams had unheralded defensive players become stars (Mark Messner, Andy Moeller in 85, Alan Branch, David Harris in 06). Could that happen here? Mouton? Martin? Spinner/deathbacker to be named later? Surprise freshman stud (Turner? Campbell? Emelien?) Maybe it’s a stretch, but if you want to be an optimist, I think this is what you look to …
So, that’s all I have for now. I am going to take a closer look at the impact of coaching changes on the big spikes in W/L. Current hypothesis says you get the biggest pop in year 2, but let’s see what the data says. Also going to look at the other side of this coin, seasons of -4 wins or more. Could give some retrospective insight into the whole WTF situation that was 08. If you want me to look at anything else, I am open to suggestions.
* Really this should look at 8+ win improvements over two years, not just consecutive 4+ win years. However, it is late and I’m too tired to do that now. Maybe next time.
[Editor's note: Something struck me as I read this: check out those bounce-back seasons there. Minnesota was 1-11. Illinois was 2-10. Northwestern was 3-7-1, Purdue 3-8, Penn State 4-7. Only OSU -- 7-5 in 2001 -- went from mediocre to very good, and the 2002 OSU team were the luckiest sonsabitches in recent college football history.
Everyone else was bouncing up from horrible to average, which seems much easier to do than to go from average to very good. So, yeah, a crappy bowl beckons.]
The mercifully Paul-Maguire-free 2009 ESPN college football announcin' teams have been announced. Of primary interest to Michigan fans are these trios locked into ABC 3:30 games:
Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, and Holly Rowe
Mike Patrick, Craig James, and Heather Cox
You will never escape the vast reach of Matt Millen, Detroit. Never.
Also the ESPN afternoon slot will probably be heavy on Michigan, so expect a goodly dose of Dave Pasch, Chris Speilman, and Bob Griese. If Michigan gets relegated to ESPN2 nooners it's Pam Ward, as per usual, and any night games (read: Iowa) will be handled by the usual Musberger-Herbstreit pairing or Brad Nessler-Todd-Blackledge-ERIN ANDREWS ERIN ANDREWS ERIN ANDREWS. Good to see Nessler and Griese finally got that surgery and can now be in different rooms—different states, even.
All of this is fine, good even. Before Matt Millen was the worst general manager in the history of professional sports—I defy anyone to contradict that statement—he was a good-to-excellent color guy. Hell, the reason he got the job with the Lions seemed to be his outstanding color commentary. It's not like he had any other qualifications whatsoever. So he and McDonough seem fine; I know some people think he's got it in for Michigan or something but that's because some people are crazy tribalists.
I'm considerably less enthused about the prospect of drawing Mike Patrick and Craig James. Patrick remains stained by his association with The Worst Football Booth Ever—Patrick, Maguire, and Joe Theismann—and seems like a guy who's still pissed off he has to work this small time rah-rah crap instead of the NFL. James, meanwhile, is a consistently smug presence in the ABC studio. Way back in the day I rated him only slightly less offensive than side-mouth-talkin' lunkhead and soon-to-be unemployed Aaron Taylor. I also find it hard to believe he can have a job analyzing college football given his role in the NCAA's Chernobyl moment at SMU.
I know nothing about Pasch. A quick google search finds an Awful Announcing post wherein he describes a portion of the ND-Hawaii bowl game a "golden shower." He sounds competent, if in serious need of an inner 13-year-old. Nice voice.
I'm an avowed fan of Spielman and Griese, two guys who tend towards wonkiness when allowed to and should work well together analyzing opposite sides of the ball. I even defended Spielman's right to call Michigan games against the good Doctor's j'accuse in the aftermath of some impolitic comments on a Columbus radio station, because he is not Andre Ware no matter how often TV execs demand he spend more of his time on-air saying "BOOM" or "POW."
So, yeah, not perfect but the important thing: no Mark Jones, no Rod Gilmore, no Andre Ware. Hell, Ware's been relegated to Dave sidekick and will be doing Vanderbilt-Mississippi State. ESS EEE CEE, indeed.
A lot of newspaper sports writing strives for objectivity, and it holds itself a little bit aloof. And then when it tries to talk to about the intense emotions inspired it kind of falls flat. To the readers it’s like asking a virgin for his opinion on what an orgasm feels like.
ZING! More at the link, with possibly some audio coming up later.
A note on something omitted, maybe? I said this: "There’s a lot of advice out there. It’s always like write this or do this, and I kind of defy it." I managed to not explain what any of this "advice" was during the interview. Let me repair that: 95% of sites that offer advice on how to blog advocate posts like "10 Reasons Your Mother Is A Whore," and whatnot. The style they advocate is attention-grabbing, keyword-laden headlines reminiscent of a Vogue cover backed by very, very short paragraphs with simple sentences and lots of bold. Posts are rarely to exceed a certain small threshold of words.
Though I'm not entirely opposed to this style—witness this very post—most of the blog's popularity derives from columns titled things like "Teeth and Blood" and "You Were Killed By A Bear And I Am Sad" and 5000-word exegeses on half of a Michigan football game, which are neither search engine- or link-friendly. With some limited exceptions (like throwing the name of each committed recruit into the post title, and providing SEO-friendly headlines for actual news posts) my philosophy has been to make the content as good, and as difficult to replicate, as possible. (Evidently I feel a good, weird title goes a long way.) The cookie cutter is eschewed.
Can you bring Mike Floyd with you? AnnArbor.com has yoinked Michael Rothstein from the earthly paradise of Fort Wayne, Indiana:
I am heading up to Michigan and specifically to Ann Arbor to join the staff of AnnArbor.com. While there, I'll be leading the coverage of Michigan men's basketball and helping out with Michigan football.
Is this interesting? I don't know. Beat writers seem like beat writers. From what I've seen of Rothstein he's more web-aware than most, which obviously made him attractive to a newly web-centric organization.
(HT: Big House Blog)
Big Ten Meetings. Michigan's representatives at the Big Ten meetings:
Stevie Brown, Sr., LB/S
Zoltan Mesko*, Sr., P
Mark Ortmann, Sr., LT
Zoltan obvious, Ortmann one of two reasonable options on offense, Brown an odd choice instead of Brandon Graham.
Graaaagrrghaaargh. Frank Deford can always be counted on for some quality invective when prompted to write about the NCAA. I saw some speech he was giving on the youtubes once where he made the provocative (but in an interesting way!) point that you could see the NCAA as a massive system designed to take money earned by largely poor black athletes and give it to largely wealthy white athletes who make no money. Which… whoah, man. That's kind of true.
Anyway, I can't decide whether this is over the top or just good plain fun:
Because just as the BCS is unfair to certain colleges, the NCAA is an evil overseer to its athletic minions.
Holy hyperbole, Batman. Aaaand more:
As this billion-dollar business booms, the NCAA clings to the outdated Victorian concept of amateurism in order to keep powerless athletes -- many of them indigent minorities -- under its thumb. And because amateurism is a sham, the NCAA wittingly underwrites hypocrisy, because it knows athletic department boosters fill the vacuum with illegal under-the-table payoffs.
There you go with the… erm… "indigent minorities" thing. Now Deford will slumber, grow a fantastic mustache over the course of two hours, and awake to prattle about horse racing for the next six months. I have something of a love-hate relationship with him.
A friendly plug. When Carcajous Attack(!) has gone on a quality posting binge of late. Here's a review of UCLA's 1982 defense, which you might be all "uh…" about but it did feature Greg Robinson's first foray as a defensive line coach. Here Marcus digs up a bunch of old newspaper articles from Year 2 of Rodriguez at West Virginia. There's more. Recommended.
Etc.: When confronted with virtually anything PETA does other than take naked pictures of hot chicks, the girlfriend exclaims "get off my side!" This is how I feel about John Feinstein's latest terrible article about the BCS, which Braves and Birds fisks mightily.
I have read recent posts that you believe on some level 3-9 has contributed to not getting more *4* stars, etc. I don't want to get into the star debate but I do want to ask you a straightforward question.
If your argument is correct..give me an example of higher ranked guy(s) that bypassed UM because of last year.
Who basically dropped us or would have inevitably committed to UM but decided not to because of record? Gholston..MSU guy. I know your argument is going be that UM had to offer 'lesser' prospects..I disagree.
I think these prospects commit depending on the depth chart and playing time. Why would a guy commit to UM when he sees Stonum and Stokes? Why would a top rb commit when he sees Toussaint and White on the horizon or for that matter..Shaw and Hopkins. This is before we take into account the offensive scheme.
Remember, a lot of these RBs are downgraded because they aren't every down backs or NFL prospects. The star thing can be deceiving for certain positions.
Why would a top DL come to UM... so they can back up Campbell, RVB and Martin? You see a lack of DBs..hence a guy like Christian and Avery are willing to commit.
I see absolutely NO evidence that the record has had any impact. Now, if UM has another dismal record this year… I could definitely see a downturn. But I don't see mediocre recruits coming to UM.
Cordially and Respectfully, John Weiss
Well, the thing is: I don't think I can give you your example of a guy who said he wasn't considering Michigan because of their terrible record a year ago. It doesn't work like that. Usually what happens is a player talks about teams he's interested in for whatever reason and does not mention why the rest of college football isn't on his list. So the evidence is more circumstantial: fewer players listing Michigan, Michigan pursuing prospects further down the line, and so forth and so on.
I get your point about offensive fit and three stars and whatnot. I don't care that Christian Pace is (right now) a three-star on Rivals. From what I've read and heard—there will be more on Pace in the week's recruiting roundup—I'm convinced he's a perfect fit for Michigan's offense and will be very successful here, barring injury. But it's not like Rodriguez didn't immediately start racking up four stars upon arrival at Michigan. Seven of the nine recruits he finished Lloyd Carr's last class with were four stars on one site or the other, and the bulk of Rodriguez's first full class sported four stars. There seems to be a clear correlation between players the recruiting gurus are high on and ones Rodriguez likes to acquire.
It's also hard to argue that the real problem with Michigan's recruiting is the vast depth when 1) the depth on defense is actually terrifying, which is where the recruiting is most concerning and 2) Michigan was 3-9 last year.
There will be a dip in Michigan's final recruiting rank this year, and that will be meaningful. But it's not fate or anything, and strong classes on either side of it coupled with good retention will see Michigan through just fine.
I'm a longtime Wolverine fan who's lived near West Virginia for much of my life, so I'm familar with Rodriguez and his offense.
My question is this, without a Pat White (at least now, Devin Gardner/Robinson are similar) do you see the Michigan offense becoming more passing oriented in a few years? Obviously Tate can scramble but he's more elusive than speedy. And Rodriguez isn't filling his entire offense with 5"7, 170 lb Jock Sanders types (but a few), rather, a lot of different athletes (Je'Ron Stokes, Jeremy Gallon, Ricardo Miller)
Well, no, not in a few years. Retroactively, even. Last year when Michigan was flailing at 2-4 and the sharks* in the media were asserting that Rodriguez should have kept Lloyd Carr's offense despite not knowing how to run it and having vanishingly few players who knew how to run it, I noted Michigan's run/pass breakdown in response to a particularly ignorant assertion that Rodriguez hadn't changed his offense from his West Virginia days:
Yes, exactly like the West Virginia spread:
- WVU, 2007: 26% pass, 74% run.
- Michigan, 2008: 46% pass, 54% run.
This only looks "exactly like the West Virginia" spread if you have literally no memory for play proportions and sequencing.
This was at the absolute nadir for the offense. As discussed here and at Varsity Blue earlier this offseason, this was the point at which the run game became functional. As you might expect when the alternative was Threetsheridammit, the play distribution shifted to the things less likely to end with a punch to the face. Michigan ended the year with a 42-58 pass-run split. I didn't get the exact play counts here but it's a reasonable assumption that about half of the plays came before MINOR RAGE was instituted and half after: the pass-run split in the second half of the season was 38-62, which is veering towards Pat White territory.
That's run-heavy, but not run-insane. The play breakdown demonstrates two things:
- Rodriguez is not an idiot dedicated to run or die trying; he does the things that the situation calls for.
- His offense is naturally going to be run oriented for the same reason a Texas Tech offense is pass-oriented: that's what it's good at, that's why it exists, that's what gives the whole thing its extra savoir faire.
When nothing worked, the run-pass breakdown was about even. When running worked and passing remained Russian roulette, Michigan ran about twice as often as it passed.
So, yes, the Michigan offense is going to be more passing-oriented. That doesn't say much, though, when you're comparing it to an offense on the order of Navy or Georgia Tech when it comes to bombing away. But what you're probably asking is something closer to "will this offense approach balance?"
I submit that the answer is yes, because you don't recruit a guy like Tate Forcier as determinedly as Michigan did—remember that Forcier was already coming in for an official on the opening weekend of the season when Newsome decommitted—without intending to take advantage of his unique skills.
Your point about the diverse and sundry skill position athletes is also well-taken: when Rodriguez had the one NFL receiver he'd ever acquired on his roster, he bombed it to Chris Henry whenever he was out of jail/trouble. He will take advantage of talented players, and given that the possibly-unwarranted offseason hype is focused squarely on tight ends Kevin Koger and Martell Webb, you're definitely going to see a wide array of formations and plays Rodriguez never dreamed of deploying at West Virginia.
*(whale sharks, specifically: bloated, toothless, and only capable of skimming the surface for the easiest prey imaginable.**)
Given the number of commitments at this juncture, are you starting to worry that RichRod will oversign and then engage in the dubious practices for which you have blasted other programs? I think he may prove to be closer to Saban than Carr in this respect. Hope I'm wrong.
No. I got similar questions last year about the… er… colorful characters that dotted Rodriguez's rosters and recruiting classes—mostly the latter, as you could be sure that any four-or-five star who ended up at WVU had emotional problems that most certainly did not include pacifism—at West Virginia arriving in Ann Arbor with scimitars between their teeth, asking about the wenches.
I answered those in a similar fashion to what I'll say now: even if Rodriguez brought those guys in by choice instead of necessity at West Virginia—doubtful—the institution's standards override Rodriguez's and they get the final say as to what is an acceptable practice. Outside of the standard "fifth years are optional" policy, Michigan would not find that acceptable practice.
SNARKY ALTERNATE ANSWER FOR STATE/OSU/ND FANS: Rodriguez would have to not have 20 guys leave the team every year to even get in that situation, so no.
Good point on teams maybe being a bit more versed in how to defend the UM offense/running game this year. At the same time though, if Forcier is decent that should at least keep the defenses honest and have to respect the mid to long range passing game.
In addition, considering how inept the UM passing offense was last year, how much of the playbook did we even get to see? Now granted Forcier is a true freshmen, but if he can show that he's comfortable with some of the basic offense (particular the passing game), we might see the playbook expanded a bit more then we saw last year. Considering that Sheridan wasn't much of a passer at all, and Threet had problems completing even the simplest of passes, I can't believe that we saw very much of the passing game that RR hopefully has in his playbook.
Keep up the good work!
This was spurred by an earlier mailbag in which I expressed concern that teams would not be caught quite as off guard as they were last year in the Penn State game when Michigan flashed capabilities opponents did not realize were options.
I basically agree on all points: the mere threat of a competent downfield passer should force defenses to lay off the running game more, the incompetence of the quarterbacking limited Michigan's options last year to wheel routes, screens, and the occasional ineffective go, and there's reason to believe Michigan's offense hasn't shown all that much of its true capabilities.
All those positive factors plus the return of everyone on offense save the nominal, ineffective starting quarterback from last year's train wreck should easily overwhelm the familiarity factor. The main reason I brought it up was the extreme dip in the running game from 2006 to 2007.
In 2006, Mike Debord returned to his post as offensive coordinator/mgo-bete noire. He brought a radical shift in Michigan's ground game by installing the zone-stretch-heavy (in fact, near-exclusive) ground game that propelled Mike Hart to an excellent junior year. Michigan finished 21st in rushing yardage and averaged 4.9 YPC once you remove Chad Henne rushes that were either sacks, scrambles or sneaks.
In 2007, the same ground game with similar personnel fell to 47th nationally and saw their non-QB YPC dip to 4.7… which, actually… you know what? I think I just disproved this theory in my own head. Mike Hart missed significant chunks of the season, the offensive line got considerably worse if you look at the sack numbers and this mournful, muddled lineup of right guard starts…
Jeremy Ciulla (5)
Alex Mitchell (5)
Stephen Schilling (1)
Tim McAvoy (1)
Mark Ortmann (1)
…and multiple opponents got the opportunity to tee off on Ryan Mallett as directed by Carr and Debord instead of a healthy Chad Henne. In the Ohio State game the Buckeyes quickly figured out that Chad Henne's arm was hardly attached to his body, too. Despite all that the YPC of actual rushing plays only dipped 0.2 yards.
Nevermind, then. Viva the run game.
Though Michigan has thumping TX RB Stephen Hopkins in the fold, they're still looking for a complementary back in the recruiting class. Instate running back Austin White is one of a few tailbacks Michigan is focusing on, and despite the Spartan on his helmet and Spartans in his family—two brothers are currently at State—Michigan currently maintains a lead with White. Tom VanHaaren caught up with White a couple days ago to get the latest.
TOM: Recently you said that Michigan is in the lead. Tell me about what sets them apart from the others.
AUSTIN: Right now, it’s still really close; they’re not set far apart. I like their style of offense; I think it fits me well. I have a really good relationship with the coaches too, and I like the way they coach. I talk to Coach Rod Smith and Jackson the most. I really like that I’ve built a good relationship with all the coaches, not just my position coaches. It’s good to get to know all of them, and see that they all have the same goals. That’s kind of what has them as my favorite.
TOM: What about Michigan’s offense is attractive to you? How do you see yourself fitting in, and succeeding?
AUSTIN: I feel like they utilize the running back in more versatile ways. That’s the way I am, I don’t just do one thing. I feel like that would help showcase what I do, with running the ball and being able to catch it.
TOM: Early on, everyone really thought you were a Michigan State lock, because of your family ties. How has that changed for you?
AUSTIN: It was never really the case, I’m sure it’s because of my family. I like State a lot, they’ve got great coaches, but just measuring things out I feel like Michigan feels better than State does. It’s hard because I’ve built a relationship with those guys, so it’s tough.
TOM: What has your family been telling you? Are your brothers trying to convince you to come to State?
AUSTIN: No, my brothers aren’t saying much. They tell me to be my own person, and obviously they have their opinions, but it’s just an opinion. Ultimately it’s just going to be my decision.
TOM: I know you also said initially you wanted to see some other schools further away, like LSU, is that still the plan?
AUSTIN: I think it is, it really depends on my family’s schedule for the summer. If we have time and money for it, so we’ll see what happens. I will probably use a couple official visits to go further away. I’m planning on taking all five officials, just not sure when and where.
TOM: Has there been any negative recruiting towards either in state school?
AUSTIN: Not really, there’s not a lot of negative recruiting going on. It’s a lot more of them just telling me about their school, and what they have to offer. So, that’s been good.
TOM: What camps have you been to so far?
AUSTIN: Nike Camp, Michigan Preps, University of Michigan, and Michigan State so far.
TOM: Who has stuck out to you at the camps you’ve been to? Both at Michigan’s and others.
AUSTIN: There was a quarterback at Michigan’s, I think it was Cornelius Jones, I’m not sure though. I had never seen him before, he impressed me, and had a real strong arm. The quarterback I do know is Devin [Gardner]. He was at camp doing some one on one’s with us. I love that Devin is such a competitive kid, he works hard, and he’s just a good guy.
Some of the younger guys were balling out too, like Delonte [Hollowell] from Cass Tech, he played well. At State, Will Gholston was up there. It’s cool to go up against each other, because he’s always trying to win, but I think I got the best of him. The Nike Camp, Kyle Prater was there, and he’s a big body, real athletic kid. There were a couple linebackers where I went, like Austin Gray. It was good to go against him too.
TOM: You and Dior Mathis are really the last two unknowns of the top instate recruits. What have you been hearing from the State side, and the Michigan side?
AUSTIN: I’m really hearing the same thing from both sides. They feel like I can succeed in their offense, and hopefully raise my game to the next level in their program. That stuff to me means a lot, because they’re trying to get the best look for me, with an honest perspective of what they think.
TOM: Since your recruitment has changed so much, do you think your timeline will change?
AUSTIN: It could change at any time, because I’m going off the feeling I have. That feeling could come now, or could come in a couple months from now. I’m just not sure when that’s going to happen for me, so we’ll see.
Per one Jeremy Gallon's myspace page a kid named Jeremy Gallon has made his ACT score and will be on campus this fall. One w00t for the slot receiving. With Fitzgerald Toussaint good to go, the only player Michigan is waiting on is Justin Turner.
Turner still has to pass one section of the goofy Ohio exit exam, which should be formality now that he gives a crap. At least, I'd hope so. I took an equivalent back in the day and it's tough for anyone with opposable thumbs to fail those things. (Except my buddy who went to Harvard after getting a 1600 on the SAT; the state of Michigan said his writing skills were at a "novice" level.)
This is why that is schwing-worthy news:
For more, check Gallon's recruiting profile, now thankfully not wasted effort.
UPDATE: Tom flags down Gallon for a quick interview:
JEREMY: I had to get a couple points on my ACT, and I had to boost my GPA. That was it mainly.
Update 7/7: Video of FL RB Cassius McDowell.
Linked to articles on MI DE CJ Olaniyan, OH S Latwan Anderson, OH DT Terry Talbott (second), WI P Will Hagerup, FL RB Cassius McDowell, FL CB Tony Grimes (second), OH WR Jerald Robinson, OH OL Andrew Donnal, OH OL Christian Pace.
Removed PA WR Andrew Carswell (Pitt), OH RB Spencer Ware, OH OL Andrew Rotheram, OH RB Roderick Smith(OSU), GA CB Darius Robinson (dropped M), OH RB Andre Givens, FL LB Zach Allen (Wake), GA DE Henry Anderson (Stanford), NY DE Dominic Easley (dropped M).
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here. What happened this week? Nothing!
Well, not much. Things that did happen:
Eh, a bunch of guys off the board as folks get serious about narrowing their lists in preparation for official visits and whatnot. The board is now thinning the herd. In groups:
- Apparent plan B guys without offers or without, you know, commitable ones: OH OL Andrew Rotheram, OH RB Andre Givens, and probably PA WR Andrew Carswell since he's an ACK WR.
- Guys who never seemed interested: OH RB Spencer Ware, IN RB Roderick Smith, GA CB Darius Robinson, and NY DE Dominic Easley.
- Mild disappointments: FL LB Zach Allen and GA DE Henry Anderson.
None of these guys were in the core group of guys who have expressed serious interest, but Allen's commitment to Wake Forest just about shuts Michigan out of Pahokee this year. Anderson, meanwhile, was a strongside DE candidate with a nice set of offers, family from Wisconsin, and an academic mindset. He would have been a nice addition to Michigan's thin defensive line class; Harbaugh snatched him up for Stanford.
Michigan brought in a third of its last class early, and that trend isn't slowing down. OH OL Christian Pace plans on enrolling early, joining at least Ricardo Miller and Jerald Robinson. I thought I had seen a couple other commits announce their intent to show early, as well, but when I reviewed the board I only had EE markers next to those two. If anyone has additions to that list, the comments beckon.
While we're on Pace, I've mentioned his intelligence makes him well-suited to center in the past; his coach agrees:
“He’s very intelligent,” Shoremen coach Dave Dlugosz said. “Some players understand: I’ve got to block this player on this play. Christian can look at the defense and he understands the concept of the play, and he’s capable of making adjustments not only for himself but for the rest of the team as well.
“He plays tackle for us, but Michigan is going to move him to center, where he’ll be responsible for making most of the blocking calls.”
Aaand a little more quoteporn:
“I had a number of college scouts tell me that might be the best senior lineman tape in the whole United States, it was that good,” Dlugosz said. “He’s a very, very physical player. He’s an individual that has tremendous footwork and he’s very agile. He loves the physical part of the game and he knows how to finish blocks.”
That echoes Rivals' assessment of the tape; the only thing holding Pace back is an overall lack of hugeness that makes him an imperfect fit for offenses other than the spread and limits his pro potential. Everything else points to a long-term starter. This is one of those guys you can credibly argue is a four-or-five star to Michigan even if the recruiting sites don't give him the gold star.
Pace will have a tough time unseating a then-senior David Molk when he's a redshirt freshman, but he's got at least a 50-50 shot at the starting job after that, as Rocko Khoury is the only sure center on the roster at the moment.
Kurelic caught up with OH WR Jerald Robinson, who had a couple of interesting things to offer. Thing the first is a bunch of offers:
Since selecting the Wolverines, Robinson said he has added offers from Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Syracuse, Pitt, Cincinnati and a few others. The additional offers have not changed Robinson's thinking.
Some ammo for the theory that Rodriguez identifies talent better than others there.
Thing the second is some clarity on his position after Michigan's camp:
"At first the Michigan coaches were talking about defense," Robinson said. "But after they saw me at their camp (in June) they said they want me to play wide receiver."
Odd, since there were quotes from Robinson when he committed about playing receiver. Maybe the assertion was Michigan keeping the door open for a move to safety, rather than suggesting he'd definitely come in as one. Either way, that's off the table after Robinson caught everything in sight at Michigan's camp. He must have been extremely impressive given the current composition of Michigan's roster and recruiting class, which is heavy on receivers and light on safeties.
Weekly Gardner Eeee
Lemming reiterating his stance on MI QB Devin Gardner:
(Inkster quarterback) Devin Gardner is five-star player, and (Marvin) Robinson, a safety out of Florida, is one of the best. All of the other guys have one thing in common -- they are all really fast. They're all guys who fit Rich Rodriguez's system.
Getting Gardner was key, because he's an impact player. He's a great athlete, he's big (6-4, 200), and in the right hands, which is Rodriguez, he's going to be fantastic. He's going to be a great player. He needs to work on his precision as a quarterback, but he is a terrific athlete. And the quarterback out of South Carolina (Cornelius Jones) has a lot of potential. These are two quarterbacks who can run the spread.
That's the first I've heard about Jones from any recruiting analyst, by the way. Not that it's hugely useful or anything, but there you go.
Lemming goes on to say Michigan's locked down a bunch of good players and now needs just a couple positions: corner and defensive tackle. About that…
So, yeah, Dior Mathis has a "new top two($)," and since Michigan was the presumed leader in the past this cannot be good news in their pursuit. The two leaders are now apparently Oregon and Michigan State, though the Oregon lead has to be flimsy since he's never even been to Eugene.
I'm not sure what to think about this. It sounds like Mathis has struggled considerably during the summer camp circuit—at every camp he and Mylan Hicks showed at, Hicks was mentioned first and foremost amongst corners—and Michigan has a number of other corners on the hook with better offers, if not ratings.
Here's one, FL CB Tony Grimes:
The 6-0, 170-pound Grimes reported this weekend that he will be making that official visit to Ann Arbor the weekend of Sept. 11, to coincide with the Wolverines’ home matchup with Notre Dame.
Grimes also plans officials to Ole Miss, Alabama, and Georgia, but those haven't been set yet. Miami is also thought to be a strong contender; he named UGA, M, and Ole Miss to SC-based Phil Kornblut when asked the "who's recruiting you hardest?" question.
Meanwhile at defensive tackle, the reason Michigan didn't react to MI DT Jonathan Hankins' Ohio State offer might be because he never got one. That would be more explicable than his wildly variant set of offers, which is basically "Oklahoma, Ohio State, and… uh… Virginia?"
Another name of note is OH DT Terry Talbott, who did well at Ohio State's camp:
A player whose name has come up on this blog has surfaced as a star of camp. Huber Heights Wayne defensive tackle prospect Terry Talbott has come in and put on a show. … He is just beating his opponents with elite level explosion off the ball. I have not heard measurables listed yet but the words "physical specimen" are being thrown about.
Michigan, UCLA, and Wisconsin have already extended offers; Ohio State appears to be waiting. Michigan has also offered Talbott's younger brother, a 2010 cornerback exactly nine months younger than him. (Which, like, whoah: you go, Father Talbott.) The elder Talbott is waiting:
"I'm going to wait it out," Talbot said. "I'm not going to make an early commitment. I'm going to wait until the football season is over before I pick a college."
Back to Deerfield Beach
Michigan's focus at tailback appears to be MI RB Austin White and FL RB Eduardo Clements, but if either or both of those guys fall through they could be in the market for someone else. FL RB Cassius McDowell, a former teammate of Witty and Robinson, has scheduled M as his first official, and JC Shurburtt says that Michigan is his leader.
Here he is in flight:
Eh? His style is weirdly lackadaisical. McDowell plans on waiting, so Michigan will be given the opportunity to pursue the aforementioned duo before McDowell makes up his mind.
Etc.: MN OL Seantrel Henderson will be tracked in excruciating detail by the Daily Gopher from here on out, FWIW. OH OL Andrew Donnal favors Iowa heavily($). OSU offered WI P Will Hagerup. MI DE CJ Olaniyan is cutting down to a top 5.
Holy pants. YouTube HD, people!
Sweet. Someone lock Wolverine Historian in a room with a computer and a stack of videos. (This may be redundant, yes.)
Pah. The New York Times' bottom-to-top rundown of I-A football has reached Michigan at an uninspiring #57. The meandering glory of the thing has 100 words in German, mentions Elroy Hirsch, cites Varsity Blue, and desperately needs more paragraph breaks. It > CFN.
But the thing that sticks out to your correspondent:
Who is No. 56?: The name of its first president graces our next university’s football stadium and library. There is no memorial to Jimmy Bob, his ever-present parrot.
A commenter solves the riddle:
#56 is Western Michigan, home of Waldo Stadium and Waldo Library.
Awwww, come on. There is no way that's not a hook for the WMU preview.
Up-and-coming. This doesn't come as a surprise to me since the Doc pinged me to ask whether Boubacar Cissoko was a reasonable pick for the team—I replied "if you don't have anyone truly inspiring," to which he said "I do not"—but Michigan features twice on Dr. Saturday's up-and-coming defense. You'll be able to guess the other member without reading the post, but what the hell:
Defensive Tackle: Mike Martin • Michigan
Aside from punting, run defense was the only halfway respectable aspect of the entire Wolverine operation last year, and the best aspect of the run defense may have been that Martin held his own as a regular part of the rotation as a true freshman -- with both starters graduating, the middle of the line remains one of the team's many red sirens. Most importantly, Martin earned the MGoBlog seal of approval, which is no small feat.
Hey, now: the rushing offense was (very, very slightly) above-average. That linked caused me to return to the Wisconsin UFR, in which Martin thwarted Wisconsin's second attempt at a game-tying two-point conversion by escaping a double team and crushing the QB as he released the ball; he is kind of a great interior pass rusher already. I just hope he can hold up against the consistent pounding of the ground game.
The Doc's offensive team is hyah; call me skeptical about the inclusion of a no-block tight end from Ohio State on the list. Ohio State tight ends have to block because they do little else except get death threats. One dollar says that Kevin Koger has more catches than Jake Stoneburner at the end of the year. (Stoneburner, naturally, will blind more messiahs.)
Find Pierce Brosnan. Jewel Hampton is the tailback on that DocSat up-and-coming offense, but his knee may have up and left:
Multiple Web sites are reporting that Iowa football running back Jewel Hampton sustained a knee injury during non-contact drills Friday. If confirmed, that would put a damper on the 4th of July weekend for Hawkeye fans.
BHGP links to stuff that suggests the injury is a torn ACL, which would knock Hampton out for the year. Yea, if there is any Angry BLANK Hating God as wroth as Angry Michigan Safety-Hating God, it's Angry Iowa Tailback-Hating God.
However, the second-wave word on the thing is much friendlier to Iowa and Hampton:
"I'm OK," he said.
When the 5-foot-9, 210-pound sophomore-to-be from Indianapolis was asked whether he would play in the fall, Hampton said with a grin, "Don't know yet."
Dude NFW. You know what? I really don't want to get into this again. But I find it amazing that this happens to be true:
Almost there! With two graduated, third-team seniors predictably (and acceptably) having left the team over the past week, Bama Sports Report reports that the Tide only has ... 10 more scholarships to free up over the rest of the summer! That's not too bad! Here, here's a handy alphabetical run-down of how many scholarships each SEC team still has to clear off the existing roster to bring in their full signing class in fall camp:
Mississippi St.: 0
South Carolina: 0
Say what you want about the man, Saban stands by his principles, such as they are.
Etc.: You will be SHOCKED at the #1 players on Ace's list of the top 15 players on both sides of the ball from the past 15 years.
It is out:
A dossier of what's inside:
The usual team preview by yours truly, except swankier with more stats and highlights and pictures of Jamar Adams because the safety situation is so scary that no one actually scheduled to play the position has available photos. Also: special teams!
Opponent previews by a cast of characters. As per usual, we break out the Notre Dame and Ohio State previews and offer them to partisans of those schools. This year it's Vico from Our Honor Defend taking up the Ohio State banner; Brian Stouffer of The House Rock Built returns to preview ND. The rest of the schedule is tackled by Jerry Hinnen from the Joe Cribbs Car Wash, continuing HTTV's burgeoning tradition of forcing some guy from the South to learn all about the Big Ten.
Research and and analysis in spades. The research and wonkery section of this year's book includes:
- Yours truly on hybrids and spinners and quicks and deathbackers and what it all means. What, exactly, Michigan's defense will be this fall has been a hot topic of conversation. I figured it out, probably. Complete with picture of Greg Robinson and Pete Carroll as chums. Also: diagrams.
- Chris Brown of Smart Football on what went wrong last year, other than everything. The smartest college football blog in the universe—it's in the title—has been flagged down to explain just what the hell happened last year, other than all those obvious things. More diagrams herein. My favorite:
- Matt Hinton on how freshman quarterbacks generally do. In sum: "not well, but significantly better on average that what Michigan threw out there last year." Hinton, of course, runs Dr. Saturday and is awesome.
- Michael Elkon on demographic shifts, recruiting styles, talent, and Michigan. Elkon's contributed to HTTV every year it's existed; this year's bit is a piece on how Michigan finds itself behind a talent eight-ball relative to national powers fortunate enough to be situated amongst oodles of talent, and why a coach like Rodriguez is the right fit for a team like Michigan that figures to face those national powers on a regular basis.
Talking with and observing this year's team in detail.
- Tim Sullivan of Varsity Blue and Tom Van Haaren talk to Tate Forcier, who you may have heard of.
- Johnny of RBUAS is unearthed and directed to expound on Brandon Graham as star player. I am possibly the one internet-aware Michigan fan for whom Johnny's decreased output over the past year has a silver lining: now folks will have a powerful motivation to buy this book.
- S. Mastin Jones of Maize 'n' Brew revisits the Barwis meme in year two. There are quotes about vomiting. Of course there are.
Going back in the day. Michigan history features heavily:
- Greg Dooley of MVictors reminds us all of what a batty year 1909 was. Stuff went down. Let me tell you.
- Jamie MacMillian revisits Bo's last team, 20 years on. Remember when we had awesome safeties? I don't, I was ten. Jamie does, and catches up with Vada Murray in the course of his remembrance. (MGoReaders will know Jamie as frequent diarist Jamiemac, BTW.)
- Dan Feldman, formerly of the Daily and now behind Piston Powered, talks to members of the 1984 team about their bounce-back season. We can rebuild it. We have the technology.
- John U Bacon, who does everything, compares Rodriguez's start to those of Michigan legends past. It's not precisely as good as a few others. (Some of the everything Bacon does includes write Bo's Lasting Lessons, host on WTKA, and produce an epic quantity of articles for publications diverse and sundry.)
- And I swear I'm not making this up but Craig Ross details how he somehow found himself deputized to take Bo's last or second-to-last autograph to Warren Buffett, of all people. Craig isn't making this up, either: there are pictures. It's an incredible, preposterous story.
It's twelve pages longer than last year's book and zero dollars more expensive. If you do not buy it, you are probably brain damaged. So avoid brain damage: buy the book. If you do not buy the book, people will question the functioning of your mind. Do it for the economy.
Step two in the master plan to provide users tools to moderate themselves has been deployed: there are +1/-1 buttons on comments and posts now. This has been met with some displeasure. An explanation of what's going on right now:
- You can vote up or down on any comment, forum post, or diary entry. Up votes are worth two points, down votes minus one. This, combined with the points you get for posting stuff, should make it hard for anyone who's not seriously annoying the great majority of the commenters to see their points dip as a result.
- Dipping into negative points will put you into the "troll" role and spur me to look at the user's recent activity to see whether the user should be banned, or just told to cool it, man.
There are some abuse failsafes built in now and more will be added if—when—people start abusing the system. For one: I am probably going to make a downvote cost the voter points, too, to further restrict wanton point-bashing. Please report any bugs, or ideas, to email@example.com.