landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
|WHAT||Michigan vs Northern Michigan, CCHA Championship Game|
|WHERE||Joe Louis Arena, Detroit|
|WHEN||Championship @ 7:35 PM.|
|THE LINE||College hockey lines, junkie?|
The math is complicated—Michigan actually dropped in the pairwise after beating Miami—but the stakes are simple and immense: win and make the NCAA tournament as the worst matchup ever for some poor one seed. Lose and miss the tournament for the first time in twenty years.
Record. 20-11-8, 13-9-9 CCHA with three shootout wins, good for fourth place. They are locked into an NCAA tourney bid. Northern tied with Michigan for the CCHA's second best goal differential at +14. Their overall differential is +22; Michigan is currently +42 thanks to their tear through the CCHA playoffs, albeit in three extra games.
After scoring the the last first-round bye, Northern swept Alaska 4-3 and 5-1, then squeezed by Ferris in OT at the Joe. Northern's goal came a minute into OT, so it shouldn't affect their legs.
Northern's been on a tear since getting swept at UNO in late January. Since then they're 10-1-2 in a stretch of games that included four against Alaska, three against Ferris state, and two against Michigan. Michigan, FWIW, was Northern's only loss in that stretch.
Previous meetings. The teams split their only series of the year in late February, and that was at Yost. Friday was a 3-1 Northern win with a familiar script: Michigan outshot the Wildcats 39-21 but couldn't get anything except a first period Hagelin goal. Northern scored on two of its first five shots and that was enough.
The Saturday game was wild after a fairly calm first period that saw Greger Hanson score an unassisted goal on a terrible turnover from Kampfer. Michigan took the lead in the second, Northern tied it, and then Michigan took the lead again. In the third, Michigan blew the lead by yielding two goals in little over a minute; four minutes after that they would get goals from Chad Langlais and Greg Pateryn to retake the lead and close the scoring. Pateryn's goal was a JMFJ-esque swoop in from the point and a bizarre way for a stay-at-home defenseman to score the first goal of his career. Michigan outshot Northern 32-27.
FWIW, Michigan had four more power play opportunities over the two games. We will see this was not a coincidence.
First team All-CCHA forward and Hobey finalist Mark Olver (right) is the team's leading scorer with 19-29-48. He plays with a couple of sophomores. Andrew Cherniwchan has an 11-16-27 and Tyler Gron a 10-10-20. This leaves Northern a second dangerous line of double-digit scorers: Greger Hanson (16-22-38), Justin Florek (11-21-32) and Ray Kaunisto (17-14-31). On defense, Erik Gustafsson was the CCHA's best offensive defenseman. He has a 3-28-31 line.
Northern has two extremely strong lines, which will again prevent the Hagelin Solution from working perfectly, but after those two lines the dropoff is steep. There's one guy with 22 points on the season and then it's 12, 11, etc. Michigan can't afford to let the third and fourth lines put anything on the board. You can see the dropoff in the +/- numbers: the top two lines are all at least +8 and most are somewhere in the +12 to +18 range. The third and fourth lines are somewhere between +2 and –9. Michigan has three solid lines and should be able to make hay when Northern's first two units are on the bench.
Northern is just above average offensively despite the strong top two lines: their 3.08 goals per game is 22nd nationally. Michigan is up to 12th at 3.31.
Defense and goalie and whatnot. Senior Brian Stewart is NMU's unquestioned starter. His backup has only played about six games worth of hockey. Stewart has a 2.41 GAA and a .926 save percentage that's fourth(!) nationally after Michigan knocked Cody Reichard from a .930 to a .924. Does everyone Michigan play have to have a crazy save percentage?
Defensively, Northern is experienced and boring past Gustafsson. Freshman Kyle Follmer and senior TJ Miller are +16 and +17, respectively; senior Alan Dorich is +7 despite rocking an 0-2-2 line. That's your top four. The third pairing is shaky.
Northern is 12th nationally in scoring defense at 2.51 per game; Michigan is 7th at 2.31. Shawn Hunwick's save percentage is up to .908.
Special teams. Your power plays per game:
|PP For / G||4.4||5.6|
|PP Ag / G||5.7||5.3|
Northern is a heavily penalized team that spends significantly more time in the box than their opponents do. A repeat of the Yost PP disparity seems likely, though if Shegos and Wilkins call the game like they did yesterday—think NHL circa 1995—there will be a lot of should-calls that get ignored.
However, despite the penalty disparity Northern has scored and yielded an equal number of goal on special teams: 35 for, 35 against. Opponents are shooting just .097 on power plays; Northern is shooting .172. Overall, Northern's kill is 17th nationally at 84.3% and their power play is 10th at 20.5%. Michigan's kill is 9th; their power play is 19th.
Northern actually leads the country in a funky stat College Hockey Stats tracks called "combined special teams" that adds up all your opportunities and counts your successes, but that stat slants heavily towards teams that spend a disproportionate share of their time killing penalties. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say Northern is amongst the worst teams in the country in that ratio.
Michigan Vs Those Guys
Do whatever the hell it is you have been doing lately. Against Miami, Michigan did not spend 80% of its time in the opponent's end like they did in the first two rounds of the CCHA playoffs, but they did tilt the ice slightly in their favor against a team that was +61 in the CCHA this year. They deserved to beat Miami.
I mean no disrespect to a Northern team that is currently hotter than hell, but if Michigan can do that to a team that is definitely That Miami when it comes to hockey, most of this game will probably be played in the Northern end. Supporting evidence: Northern has been outshot on the year by a margin of about five per game. Michigan is outshooting opponents 34-23. That might not be enough for a win given the shooting/save percentages, but it's better than the alternative.
If Michigan can keep the turnovers down and keep clearing the dozen terrifying pucks that kick out into the slot, they will be in good shape. The overall goal differential here is big: despite the fact that Northern (13th) is only four slots back of Michigan (9th) in scoring margin, Michigan is +1.0 and Northern is +0.56.
Clone Carl Hagelin and put him on three lines. I'm pretty sure they did this after watching Miami turn the puck over in its own end time and again because of heavy Michigan forechecking. Michigan had its share of scary moments against the equally fast Redhawks, but I don't think Northern quite has the skating those guys do. Sans Michigan turnovers, their third and fourth lines are going to be hard pressed to do anything except get off the ice without giving up a goal.
Stay out of the box. Northern takes a lot of penalties and doesn't draw many but that power play is lethal. I think Michigan would prefer most of the game to be played five on five. This would make that 1995 NHL era refereeing a positive for Michigan.
The Big Picture
Win or go home.
MVictors returns from the Joe with a bevy of pictures and one Awesome Crappy Photoshop. Yost Built recaps the Miami game.
|Friday 2:30pm, Mets Spring Training Complex #7, Port St. Lucie, FL|
|Matt Miller (0-2, 4.58 ERA)||vs||J.P. Mack (0-2, 9.58ERA)|
|Notes: This is on field #7, and the first meeting between the programs|
|Saturday 11am, Tradition Field, Port St. Lucie, FL|
|Alan Oaks (1-3, 2.73ERA)||vs||Max Krakowiak (0-2, 4.64ERA)|
|Following Game One, Tradition Field, Port St. Lucie, FL|
|Bobby Brosnahan (0-2, 7.71ERA)||vs||Rich Anastasi (0-1, 3.07ERA)|
|Notes: Second game of a double header.|
|Sunday 11am, Tradition Field, Port St. Lucie, FL|
Notes: Michigan trails 0-1-1 in the all time exhibition history. This game
I'm still swamped with real life – hence the lack of a Coastal review- so shortened version of the Fordham preview after the jump. No Mets as this game means nothing.
|WHAT||Friday: Michigan vs Miami
Saturday: Michigan vs Ferris State/Northern Michigan
|WHERE||Joe Louis Arena, Detroit|
|WHEN||Friday: 8:05 PM.
Saturday: Championship @ 7:35 PM. Third place game @ 4:35.
|THE LINE||College hockey lines, junkie?|
|TELEVISION||Friday: BTN HD
Record. Yeeergh. 26-6-7 overall. 21-2-7 (with two shootout wins) in the CCHA. The ferocity with which Miami pwned the CCHA has to be approaching record territory. They had 70 points, 20 more than second-place Michigan State. Their conference goal differential was +61. Michigan and Northern tied for second in that category at +14. This may be the best CCHA team since Brendan Morrison and company.
However, Miami did look somewhat mortal last weekend. 6-2 over Ohio State on Friday was not a surprise, but they lost 5-4 in overtime the next night and squeezed out a 2-1 series clincher in game three. Look a little deeper, though:
- Friday shots: 42-28, Miami
- Saturday: 46-21, Miami
- Sunday: 24-23, Miami
It's a miracle it even got to Sunday.
It was weird at the time and it's weirder now: the most bizarre series of the season in college hockey is Miami getting swept by the CHA's Robert Morris in a home and home. Miami is Miami. Robert Morris went 6-9-3 in the CHA. Against teams not named Miami, Robert Morris was 8-19-6. WTF?
Previous meetings. The only two meetings of the year started Michigan's November tailspin. Game one was a penalty-laden, frustrating affair that may stand the test of time as the game most emblematic of Michigan's 2009-10 season. Michigan outshot the Redhawks 28-13 and lost 3-1. Along the way they failed to convert on a penalty shot, put a number of shots off the post, and missed wide open nets. They found a way to lose that game.
The next night was totally different. Miami had the advantage in shots and walked away with the game early in the third, causing Michigan to melt down and take 19 penalties. Berenson called them out for it in the aftermath, and they responded by getting swept by Michigan State.
Dangermen. Might be quicker to pick the kids who don't seem particularly threatening. Junior forward Justin Vaive only has eight points. Freshman Steve Mason has played all of five games. Backup goalie Connor Knapp has two assists.
Aaand we're running out of names. Miami has four(!) players currently at or above a PPG: senior Jared Palmer and juniors Tommy Wingels (right, via cnati.com), Andy Miele, and Carter Camper are all in a tight cluster of 39-44 points. All have at least fifteen goals. This means Michigan cannot throw Hagelin and company at the opponent's top line and turn them into spectators. (It also means that you can expect Miami to be this good again next year: they have two seniors who play regularly.)
There's a dropoff after those guys but it's a dropoff to junior Pat Cannone, who has a 12-16-28 line. So… right. Miami has almost two lines of double-digit goalscorers.
Defense and goalie and whatnot. Cody Reichard and Conor Knapp are still rotating even this deep into the season. Reichard has played more than Knapp so far this year and got the first two games in the OSU series, but was pulled in favor of Knapp after he gave up five goals on 21 shots in Ohio State's OT win. As of Wednesday, Miami had not named a starter.
This is not like Michigan's choice between Hogan and Hunwick. Reichard and Knapp are #3 and #9 nationally in save percentage with a .930 and .920, respectively. Either one is a far better option than Michigan's goalies.
As far as those go, it will be Hunwick this weekend:
"It's a pretty easy decision," Berenson said before practice Tuesday afternoon. "I have to play Hunwick. He got us there. (Bryan) Hogan's skated at practice. He'll take shots today. He'll be our backup if he's ready to go."
He is Red Berenson and can shoot lasers from his eyes at anyone with temerity to question his judgment, but man I disagree with that. Though Hunwick's save percentage is holding up pretty well so far, there have been a ton of soft goals and even more fat rebounds that opponents have not been able to capitalize on. Maybe Hogan's still feeling the effects of his groin injury and Berenson is phrasing it this way for motivational/confidence purposes.
Miami has been as good on defense as they are on offense, shielding the goalies—when you've got two guys in the top ten in save percentage chances are your defensive corps has an awful lot to say about that. Here Miami is also poised to bring back virtually everyone. USCHO lists senior Brendan Smith as a defenseman, but he's actually been bumped to forward this year to make room for a collection of sophomores and freshmen. Vincent LoVerde is the only upperclassman; he and Cameron Schilling are the top pair.
Special teams. Your power plays per game:
|PP For / G||5.3||5.6|
|PP Ag / G||5.4||5.3|
Surprisingly for such a talented team, Miami kills more power plays than it draws. This seems to be wholly the responsibility of freshman forward Curtis McKenzie, who has a spectacular 43 minor penalties this year.
Does this matter much? Eh… not really. Miami's kill is fourth nationally at 87.3% and has seven shorthanded goals. Michigan dropped a little bit after that first period outburst by Michigan State but is still seventh at 86.3%. Also a surprise: for a team that scores as many goals as Miami does, their power play is kind of lame. They're 33rd at 18.4%. Michigan is slightly better at 19.2%.
Neither team was particularly successful in the earlier series, with Michigan going 1 for 14 and Miami going 2 for 15. Two of those goals were five on three, the third four on three. This is a series that's going to be decided at even strength.
Michigan Vs Those Guys
Do whatever the hell it is you have been doing lately. Michigan can play with Miami. We saw that in the first matchup of the season between the two teams, where an epic ton of bad luck and iffy goaltending sent Michigan down to defeat. And we've seen it in the CCHA playoffs to date. Michigan's opponent has been run out of the building four straight times.
Sure, post-human Miami wouldn't even comprehend Lake State as a hockey team, but humiliating Michigan State in the fashion Michigan did has to count for something.
Clone Carl Hagelin and put him on three lines. They might have done this, actually. Do it again. I have something in my head where after a game the Michigan hockey team gathers in a circle and removes their helmets and they're all Carl Hagelin and they all go "bork"… is it a dream or a nightmare?
Pray like hell. Even if Michigan plays at the level they have been of late, I can't see Miami going as quietly as Michigan's first two playoff opponents. Hunwick is going to face his share of grade A chances. I worry about that. It will take a superhuman defensive effort to win.
The Big Picture
No matter how you thwack the Pairwise predictors there is no way to get Michigan into the tournament without an autobid. It's all on the line.
If Michigan wins Friday I'll hop in with a conference championship preview.
Now pretend it's a lot darker
It's been rumored over the past couple days that the Michigan v. Notre Dame game in Ann Arbor on September 10, 2011 would take place under lights in the Big House, but the real serious smoke came this afternoon from the official Athletic Department twitter account:
HUGE Michigan football scheduling announcement today at 2:30pm. Check MGoBlue.com for details later this afternoon.
So, now we know: there will be a night game in The Big House within the next two years. Here's how Michigan has fared in night games, including those against the Irish:
- Michigan is 22-11 all-time in night games. They are 19-5 in away night games, 3-6 in neutral site night games. This will be the first home night game in Michigan history.
- The Wolverines are 0-3 in night games against Notre Dame. They lost 17-23 in 1982, 17-19 in 1988, and 24-28 in 1990. All three games took place in South Bend.
- The first Michigan night game took part in was a 14-0 victory over MArquette on September 23, 1944.
Notes from the announcement press conference:
Coach Rich Rodriguez
Prepared Statement: "Our players have always enjoyed playing night games, and I think it's something that our fans will truly enjoy and embrace. I expect the atmosphere will be electric for this match-up at the Big House."
Night games provide great exposure for the players and the program. Players really like night games. Playing in front of a lot of people both in person and on television is exciting. National TV is great for the University, since games are like a 3.5-hour commercial for the school.
AD David Brandon
Prepared Statement: "This will be an unprecedented game day atmosphere that ours fans have not experienced at Michigan Stadium. It's a great opportunity to showcase out program, University, and Ann Arbor to a primetime viewing audience. This also adds a new chapter to the storied rivalry between our two great programs."
Brandon has been working on logistics for a couple weeks. We know how to string lights, work traffic, etc. The operations team has over a year to prepare to do this at night.Brandon didn't have to touch base with the city.
Michigan is familiar with the concept of playing under the lights (for 3:30 starts, and they've seen how other schools have handled night games. If this goes well, there will probably be one night game per year at Michigan Stadium.
Night games are part of what create a big exciting atmosphere in college football. Of the night game, Bo would say "That Brandon guy believes that change is good and I'm gonna support him."
Another big update following the Junior Day over the weekend. All-time updates can be found on the Recruiting Board. Hopefully things will return to a normal pace next week.
Night Of Champions
Michigan's Night of Champions Junior Day last weekend brough in a ton of prospects, and most of them had only good things to say.
TX RB Jarrell Oliver had a "top notch" experience ($, info in header).
IN RB Remound Wright made it to town ($, info in header). His recruitment is starting to pick up pace with some new offers, but he still hasn't received one from Michigan.
IL OL Jordan Walsh was there and sounds like a pretty good prospect:
Walsh is arguably the best offensive line prospect in Illinois in what is turning out to be a very strong year for the position in the Land of Lincoln. Walsh, 6-foot-3, 270 pounds, will have to be an inside guy at the next level and he's strong enough and athletic enough to play guard or center.
"Duke, Northwestern, Illinois, Arizona, Indiana, Purdue, Boston College, Michigan State and Iowa have all offered me a scholarship," Walsh said. "I can't even begin to name a leader right now or even a few schools that stick out. I'm open to everything and anything right now. I've visited a lot of schools mostly in the Big Ten."
Walsh, who has been compared to his former teammate, Notre Dame OL Chris Watt, wants to major in business or engineering, both very strong programs for Michigan. With Duke and Northwestern involved, he's likely a top student.
OH OL Matt Skura attended the Junior Day, and may make it back to Ann Arbor sometime this spring:
"I plan to go to Toledo and Michigan State spring practices," Skura said. "I plan to go to Michigan State's spring game April 24. I'll go to Ohio State's spring game for sure. I might go to Michigan's spring game."
He doesn't sound the most enthused about Ann Arbor, but that interview was conducted before his visit, so maybe he likes Michigan a little more now.
OH DT Kevin Williams enjoyed his visit for the Night of Champions ($, info in header), and has a new top two. It's no surprise then, that Michigan is one of the schools in his small group of favorites ($, info in header).
mgoblog's own TomVH talked to OH DE Chris Rock following his visit, which he seemed to enjoy:
Before my parents left, coach Rodriguez talked to us for a while. He was just talking about how good of a school Michigan is, and where they’re at with the football program. My parents were previously Ohio State fans, but they were very impressed with everything. They came away the same way I did, and really liked everything they saw.
He also filled Tom in on his schedule for the remainder of the spring:
I’m going to Notre Dame’s junior day next weekend, and I might go to some other spring practices. I haven’t really planned a lot out yet. I don’t have a time line, it’s just going to be when I feel it’s right. I haven’t come up with a top list, because I haven’t seen enough schools, but my interest in Michigan is very high. I really like what they have to offer.
Rock is friends (and teammates) with OL Brad Carrico, who is heavily favoring Notre Dame at this time. Rock top two is widely assumed to consist of the Wolverines and Irish.
OMG So Many Offensive Linemen
IL OL Patrick Flavin has been invited to Michigan's summer camp ($, info in header), at which time he'd be able to impress and earn an offer. He also says that Notre Dame is his slight favorite over UCLA, Illinois, Northwestern, and the Wolverines. His older brother is on the Notre Dame roster, and that's likely his dream school.
LA OL Trai Turner told TomVH that he has a Michigan offer, and his good friend Carvin Johnson will be a draw for him when it comes to the Wolverines.
OH OL Michael Bennett has received an offer from Michigan ($, info in header), and according to eFilmRoom, Ohio State, Alabama, Nebraska, and Notre Dame are also involved. He should be a pretty bigtime prospect based on that offer list aone. Video highlights from ScoutingOhio:
Michigan is in on an oddly high number of offensive linemen from Arizona this recruiting cycle. A few of Michigan's targets have come in for some fluff lately:
ESPN fluff on AZ OL Christian Westerman:
Westerman showed tremendous feet, balance, quickness and strength, probably due in part to his training in boxing and lots of basketball when he was young. Those skill sets have helped him be an important part of back-to-back state championship teams at Hamilton High School, and that has dozens of high-level programs salivating at the thought of him becoming part of their program.
There's a mention of his Michigan offer, but he doesn't give a top group (outside of "I like Lane Kiffin, Mack Brown, and Urban Meyer"-type stuff) or say whether he plans to visit Ann Arbor.
Rivals also brings a bit of fluff on Michigan targets Cyrus Hobbi and Andre Yruretagoyena.
The Sun Devils verbally offered Hobbi in May of his sophomore year but then nothing happened for months until Washington and Michigan got involved in the last few weeks. Since then, all the other schools popped and Hobbi is happy with his position heading into the spring and summer camp schedule.
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Michigan, Oregon State and UCLA are some others involved with Yruretagoyena, who has family in the Pacific Northwest and has lots of interest in Oregon.
“I don’t really think of it too much,” Yruretagoyena said. “I want to get ready for next season, get bigger and make sure my team is doing work just as much as I am. It’s really good to know I won’t have to pay for college if my grades are good enough to qualify for the school.
Not terribly informative, but Michigan is on both their minds.
And Those Other Positions
The Great Demetrius Hart Internet Meltdown of 2010 can continue, now that FL RB Hart has told ThaRinger.com that he has already made up his mind, with a final three of Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. Howeva, he told TomVH that he will be visiting Ann Arbor for the spring game (April 17th, 1PM). It seems as though Michigan is still right at the top of his list, but his mom has concerns about Rich Rodriguez's job security.
Rivals briefly chats with NJ Ath Miles Shuler, who recently received a Michigan offer. National interest in the athlete is growing, especially after he impressed at a recent BadgerSport combine. He's talking with Florida, Ohio State, and Penn State, but doesn't mention any favorites. He did say he's "excited" about the recruiting process, so I wonder whether that might result in a drawn out recruitment.
Ohio State commit OH DE Steve Miller plans to look around a bit ($, info in header), and is not solidly committed to the Buckeyes. Obviously, it would be very nice if Michigan's coaches could get him on campus and try to sway him to the good guys. However, he's already missed a few good Junior Day opportunities, and they'll have to act quickly and forcefully if they want a chance.
A couple updates on some South Carolina prospects: DE JaDaveon Clowney, who holds a Michigan offer (along with Florida, Alabama, USC, and basically everyone else) still has no favorites. DE Gerald Dixon has apparently been offered by the Wolverines, as has OL Brandon Shell. Shell's offers come mostly from the Southeast, and it seems like he'll probably stay around there.
Though IL DT Mason Fuller impressed at the Michigan Football Showcase, this fluff piece has no Michigan mention.
"He's very athletic for his size. He's an athletic, strong kid," Griffin said. "He has a knack of just understanding what's going on down there. It's not about making every play but just doing the job that he has to do, so he does a good job of that. But he also has some pretty good pass rush skills as a defensive lineman, and we're thinking about playing him at a little defensive end this year as well."
Fuller also has put Urban Prep on the map for college coaches. The standout defensive tackle already has earned recruiting interest from Illinois, Kansas, Notre Dame, Stanford and South Carolina, and Griffin expects more programs to become involved soon.
Fuller may find interest in Michigan later down the road.
NC LB Kris Frost, who has previously named Michigan his favorite, is holding to that position, according to TomVH.
The Distant Future. The Year 2012
MI LB James Ross comes in for the now-standard Detroit News profile by Sam Webb. A few money quotes:
In his first year of high school football after starring for the Detroit Police Athletic League's Westside Cubs, Ross emerged as a standout performer for George Porritt's St. Mary's Eaglets. The 6-foot, 210-pounder had 103 tackles, five sacks, five forced fumbles, seven fumble recoveries and an interception while keying the defense for a team that went all the way to the state title game.
(Webb diplomatically leaves "after underachieving horribly all year" from that last sentence). Michigan has already offered, and though Ross didn't grow up a fan of the Wolverines, they've made quite an impression on him:
"It was real exciting," Ross Jr. said [of his Michigan visit]. "They took me through a tour of the facility. I was seeing all stuff the linebackers had accomplished -- all the special awards trophies. It seemed like every linebacker that went through there got something."
Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State seem to be the early competition for his services.
MD DT Kevin McReynolds has been selected to next year's UnderArmour game. OH Hoopster Markus Crider has been offered by John Beilein. He's a high school teammate of OH QB Braxton Miller (and schoolmate of the Talbott brothers). PA CB Kyshoen Jarrett is considering early enrollment at his school of choice ($, info in header). Per TomVH, Michigan has offered FL CB/Ath Nick Waisome. According to Michigan Sports Zone, NJ Slot/Ath Bill Belton has a Michigan offer on the table. MI RB Justice Hayes will take his time ($, info in header) trimming to a top 8.OH WR Shaq Washington shared his thoughts on the Michigan Football Showcase a couple weekends ago in his Cleveland Plain Dealer blog.
Programming note. I am out of heeeere, en route to Las Vegas to hang out with my friend who runs around like one of those tiny dogs whose blood is 90% cocaine during the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Tim is spending today enjoying Irish culture—I think this means he's going to a museum or eating some cabbage—so the recruitin' post will be Thursday. I have a hockey preview in the can. There might be some other sporadic content, but I'm looking at Thursday, Friday, and possibly Monday as vacation days. Our flight gets in at 5 AM. I will be super excited about that.
Q for people more experienced than me: I'm sure sportsbooks will have the BTN, but does anyone know how likely it is I can get a TV tuned to the Miami-Michigan game and hypothetical championship game? Please advise. Also if you have other advice, I am listening.
Surprise! Oh, actually not a surprise in any way at all. Grad assistant Alex Herron is being dumped overboard:
The graduate assistant accused of lying to NCAA investigators is no longer part of Michigan's football program.
Alex Herron, who was named in a Notice of Allegations the NCAA sent to Michigan last month, does not appear on Michigan's spring list of administrative personnel.
This is an obvious consequence of being personally named in a major violation because you lied to the NCAA.
Walk-ons for water. Michigan has its own version of Paki O'Meara, the Iowa walk-on tailback who was occasionally thrust onto the field because the only petty deity more wroth than Angry Michigan BLANK Hating God is Angry Iowa Tailback Hating God, in the form of freshman O'Neil Swanson. His name fascinates. Now he pitches Vitamin Water to you:
I'm not sure if he's really O'Neil Swanson III, which would make his name worthy to bask in the radiance of Barkevious Mingo, or if he's just screwing around for the Youtubes. Obviously, I hope it's the latter.
Okay then. After some initial futzing by Birkett on his twitter, AnnArbor.com posts an apology sort of thing for the crowbar comment. Fine, hatchet buried and all that.
Elsewhere, there are two reactions to that apology from people who are bad at having opinions. Site the first is College Football Talk: "for a website to force its writers to pretend that an athlete wasn't arrested multiple times for burglary is plain ridiculous." The Big Lead: "Even if Dorsey deserves a second chance, he in no way deserves a clean slate or media sheltering."
Yes, Demar Dorsey has been a sheltered little bunny in his little bunny cage. Drew Sharp feeds him a carrot cut into the shape of a heart every day. No one has heard ten thousand things about Michigan recruiting this character when kids with Dorsey's background enter schools across the country without so much as a peep.
Michigan fans have a right to expect a lack of unsolicited cheap shots. Birkett doesn't know anything about this kid except his high school record and what's been in the paper. He posted something that wouldn't be out of place on an Ohio State or Michigan State message board, and it's his job to interact with the kids on the team on a daily basis. That's totally unprofessional and Birkett deserves all the crap he gets for it. It's not about sticking your head in the sand, it's about having the tiniest modicum of respect for the program you're supposed to cover.
Meanwhile, a poster around these parts put together a diary in response that's longer and better written than the initial, pointless Big Lead post, and Duffy responds about the declining standards around here… in the user-generated area of the site. As someone who writes for the Big Lead. Quick, what are Kim Kardishan's boobs looking like today? Are they still enormous and airbrushed? Lawya, please.
Buzz after-effects. I went on a little torrent of hockey recruit googlestalking in the aftermath of the Michigan State series, partially because of general enthusiasm and partially because Michigan picked up its second commit of the 2012 class in Chicago defenseman Connor Carrick. The Wolverine's Bob Miller describes him as a bigger, quicker, better version of Langlais—yes please. I didn't find anything else on him other than a teaser from the perpetually sketchy "Scouting News" that suggested he blew up at a recent tourney and is now being mentioned at the very head of the upcoming OHL draft. In my experience those guys are used car salesmen; I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that.
While searching around I ran across some random guy's late January listing of the top 100 guys for the upcoming OHL draft and found some familiar names:
1. F Matia Marcantuoni (if he chooses college it will apparently be M, but that's a big if)
8. D Jacob Trouba (choosing between M and ND, OHL a possibility)
10. F Boo Nieves (commit)
17. D Connor Carrick (commit)
24. G Dalton Izyk (Nieves's teammate)
Who knows if this guy actually knows anything but when it comes to 15-year old hockey players there's not much else to go on. Not that there necessarily should be, or I should be looking for it.
Also from the potentially dubious depths of the Hockey's Future message boards is this report on Nieves:
I've seen Nieves play numerous times in different tournaments, and he's solidified himself as a top 10 talent, but is not likely to come to the OHL. He's a massive body, that has great acceleration, a pass first centre, and rarely if ever loses faceoffs. Would like to see him use the body more often, as he has a massive frame to grow into. He's a guy I'd keep an eye on, as he'll most likely get drafted in the later rounds, but is a real talent for the next level.
That is all sorts of things I like to hear.
The CHL has your education foremost in its mind. Lethbridge is losing its goalie this year after five years. Let's hear about the rigorous education he received:
"I guess real life is around the corner," [Linden] Rowat said with a smile. "I have to get a job and go to school. You kind of take it for granted playing in the Western League for five years, getting up at 11 o'clock, playing video games, going to practice. Now it's going to be a lifestyle change. A complete 180."
Etc.: MVictors has its own version of everyone else's twelve minutes of spring practice. There is a second mgotourney bracket. This one will not have prizes, unfortunately. More on Sheridan and Wright moseying off.
Notes from Rich Rodriguez's press conference and the first day of spring practice. Follow me on Twitter (@varsityblue) for live updates.
- Injuries: David Molk and Vincent Smith are out for spring with knee injuries. Junior Hemingway and Brandon Herron had recent knee surgeries, hopefully Hemingway will be able to make it back for the end of spring practice. Zac Johnson and Mike Martin are limited (non-contact) for the spring with shoulder injuries.
- Nick Sheridan and Bryan Wright are no longer on the football team. Sheridan wants to go into coaching, but he can't work with the football team now, since he hasn't graduated. Wright's persistent back issues have led him to give up the game, and he's going to graduate and move on.
- Position changes: Cameron Gordon has been moved to safety, as has Teric Jones. This means Troy Woolfolk and Justin Turner will both play corner this spring. There's the potential that one or both of them can move to safety down the road.
- Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are options 1 and 2 at quarterback. When Denard isn't taking snaps, he's too valuable to take off the field, and they'll give him some run at wide receiver (there's enough running back depth that they won't need him there). Devin Gardner has a great work ethic, and he'll be willing to earn any playing time he might get. Rodriguez is glad he could get in for spring, because there's a lot to learn.
- At the running back position, a number of guys are competing with Vincent Smith out for spring practice. Michael Shaw, Mike Cox, and Fitzgerald Toussaint will fill in, along with the two freshmen (Austin White and Stephen Hopkins), and there's a chance that some slot receivers get reps at that position as well.
- The team knows that they always have something to prove. Even if Michigan had performed better on the field in the past two years, there's always something to prove.
- Brendan Gibbons and Will Hagerup were the only two kicking specialists mentioned. Gibbons seems to be the favorite at kicker, and Hagerup won't arrive until fall, but will probably punt.
- Many offensive linemen worked hard to improve their bodies in the off-season, especially the freshmen Quinton Washington, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield. They'll be in the mix for some playing time.
- Elsewhere on the offensive line, Rocko Khoury, Elliott Mealer, and Christian Pace will play center with Molk out for spring. Rodriguez likes to have four guys who can snap the ball. When Molk is healthy in the fall, there's a good chance that he'll be one of the best centers in the Big Ten.
- Brandon Graham will be missed from both a production and leadership standpoint. On the field, Ryan Van Bergen, Greg Banks, Adam Patterson, and even Craig Roh will play his old spot. RVB and Banks will play both inside and outside on the DL. As for leadership, the veterans will have to step up, even though there's a very small group of seniors this year.
- The defense should be able to take a step forward in the second year under the same defensive coordinator. A few schemes will be tweaked, but they'll try to keep them simpler, because there's a good chance some true freshmen will have to fill in this fall. The coaches are going to try for a bigger rotation defensively, so more guys will see the field.
- "Buying in" is not an issue for this team (anymore?), things now come down to a matter of executing properly to improve performance in games.
As for practice, most of the useful information will probably come from the pictures, but a couple quick observations:
- Vincent Smith was wearing a red jersey, but in his football gear. Dave Molk was practicing snaps.
- Nick Sheridan was hanging around watching in street clothes.
- Stephen Hopkins is frickin' huge. That kid will be a tank with the ball in his hands.
- Gardner's throwing motion looks improved from the end of his high school season. Once he is able to get actual coaching, it should continue getting better.
- I thought Christian Pace looked much bigger than he did on Signing Day, though it may have just been the difference in wardrobe (warmups on Signing Day). He didn't even look like an offensive lineman in February.
Apologies if the quality is a little worse than usual; I don't have the mad editing skillz that Paul does.
They're having the usual press conference and 30 minutes of drills and whatnot today, on the first day of spring practice, but there are a couple bits that have already come down. One is an updated spring roster that's missing Nick Sheridan—who is becoming a GA—and kicker Bryan Wright. Wright would have been a redshirt senior next year; apparently he's taking his degree and heading out. Wright did kickoffs last year, FWIW.
- As expected, Cam Gordon is listed at S. So are Brandin Hawthorne and Teric Jones.
- Mike Jones is listed at linebacker.
- Ryan Van Bergen is listed as a defensive end, providing yet further confirmation that he is the Graham apparent. Steve Watson, who was a quick end last year, is probably headed for strongside DE this year—he's listed at 257 and a DE.
Not a ton we didn't know about there. Roh and Herron are listed as linebackers, but they were listed as linebackers last year.
Significant weight changes:
|Ryan Van Bergen||271||280||+9|
All weight changes, positive or negative, will be portrayed as positive by fluff articles. The names that jump off this list to me are…
- Tate Forcier: slightly less likely to get broken in two.
- Hemingway, Moore, and Webb are now strapping fellows indeed. I can't imagine Hemingway is going to be much of a deep threat at 227; if he is he's going to explode. You can tack freshman Stephen Hopkins in here, too: he's listed at 236. That's a battering ram of a tailback.
- Losing Brandon Graham sucks hard but replacing his 263 pounds with Will Campbell's 324 and tacking on 21 pounds (Mike Martin gained a single pound) elsewhere on the line yields a starting defensive line twenty pounds heavier on average than last year's. The backups all put on six to ten pounds as well, and will presumably get bigger by August.
- The line should be about the same size. Ortmann (284) and Moosman (293) exit and are likely to be replaced by Omameh (293) and Barnum (282). Schilling is about the same size. Molk is actually lighter, though I assume that's an effect of his injury-wracked year and rehab more than a goal. The only presumptive starter who will be a lot bigger is potential RT Mark Huyge, up 17. The new kids will continue to put on weight and Molk should regain what he lost, so overall it will be a little bigger but not by much.
- Schofield and Lewan probably need another year.
- I can't imagine that Michigan actually wanted Leach to get smaller.
- It's good that Michigan is putting weight on Will Campbell now instead of taking it off, right?
This concludes your vastly too detailed review of the spring roster. Carry on.
Coming into the year, expectations were high for the Michigan basketball team. They were fresh off their first NCAA Tournament appearance in a decade, returning two of the best players in the Big Ten. They had to replace only walk-ons and a Canadian.
So that worked out great, right? Most Michigan fans probably would have told you that #15 in the nation was too high, but nobody would have had the audacity to tell you that the Wolverines would remain mostly healthy and still limp to a sub-.500 record. In its 18 defeats, the Michigan basketball team had found just about every way to lose. There was the time they were run off the court by an inferior opponent, the time they stayed in the game against a much better opponent despite missing one of their best players, the time they almost upset their instate rival but fell just short, and all variety of just not being the better team. Also times where Evan Turner hit a 37-foot prayer at the buzzer.
There have to be reasons for these things happening, and no, Idiot Message Board Guy, that reason is not "JOHN BEILEIN SHOULD BE FIRED OMG."
As with most John Beilein teams, Michigan was expected to bomb away from deep this year, and bomb away they did. Unfortunately, nobody seemed to tell them that they were supposed to, like, make some of those shots. For the season, they shot 41.6% from the field, and 29.9% from long range. This constituted 43.2% of their shots. Put it all together, and it results in a crappy 48.1 eFG% on the season. That's good for about 230th in the country. Last year, they shot 50.3 eFG%, and finished 117th.
For individual changes in shooting, I think we're going to need a...
Chart. Players are arranged by the number of shots they took in 2009-10.
|Player||2008-09 eFG%||2009-10 eFG%|
Every returning player except Manny Harris and Zack Gibson saw a reduction in their shooting percentage from last year to this. I didn't check how many of those dropoffs are statistically significant (I imagine not very many of them, if any).
Also, for all the talk about how Michigan "only lost two walkons," everyone seems to have forgotten (and I'm guilty of this as well) that Kelvin Grady was an important part of last year's team, and a true point guard with some experience could have helped Michigan a ton this year. While some of the variation is probably luck, a team-wide regression points to poorer overall shot quality, and that starts with the gutted point guard position. This is true both with and without the ball: last year Lee, Grady, and Merritt were 1-2-3 in three point shooting. The three headed point guard took more threes than anyone on the team—172—and made more of them. This year the point guard was no-shoot Darius Morris and two guys, Laval Lucas-Perry and Stu Douglass, who struggled massively with at the spot.
OK, so I take it back: injuries actually might have played a significant role in the season. Michigan was expecting to have at least one more big man in Ben Cronin, and maybe another in Jordan Morgan. Cronin, a true seven-footer, saw his season (and probably career) come to an end in November thanks to a recurring hip problem that surgery couldn't repair. Morgan is just a freshman, and probably wouldn't have played a significant role on the team even if he hadn't had a shoulder injury that forced surgery and a redshirt.
With Zack Gibson and Deshawn Sims Michigan's only players above 6-8 (and in Sims's case, he's only listed as so), this team was never going to be able to play big. Sure, they could have used Gibson and Sims together a bit more, but that also carried a risk of one of them getting in foul trouble and not having either of them when the other needed a rest.
Zack Novak is not a true power forward. Anybody who has watched the game of basketball and notice that he doesn't even graze 6-5 can tell you that. But Michigan didn't have a ton of (read: any) other options. Criticizing Novak for not being tall enough seems a little unfair, since I think that's mostly out of his control.
So, for all the coach-fans that say Michigan should have gone big or pounded inside more or whatever, they really couldn't do it much more than they did. They went to Sims early in nearly every game, but the opponents would figure it out in short order, and the option would disappear when shooters didn't emerge as a serious threat. At 6'8"-ish, Sims always struggled against guys pushing seven feet tall and no amount of development can fix that when you're the biggest guy on the court.
It's natural to look at the coaching of this team as a potential weakness. For all the limitations of this roster, it was mostly Beilein-assembled, particularly the guys who we were supposed to be relying on as shooters and either couldn't find the basket (Stu Douglass, Zack Novak) or the court (Matt Vogrich).
On a micro scale, there were individual strategic decisions in games that probably didn't make a lot of sense, either. Something with some guy named Turner comes to mind, I don't really remember. But for every one of those, there was probably a positive moment that either went unnoticed or, in one painful instance, un-capitalized upon.
At this point, it's far too early to even consider ditching the only coach who's taken Michigan to the tournament in the past decade. He has a track record of success at every level, and he hasn't done anything yet to show he's not capable of accomplishing that in Ann Arbor. For those who say "well he only lost walk-ons from a tournament team and went under .500," I reply: dude, you do realize that you just said this guy took a team to the tournament as he was forced to play walk-ons extensive time, right? As much as this team may have underachieved, it only looks worse because last year's squad overachieved so much by comparison.
There have been a lot of accusations over the past couple days that Michigan "underachieved" this year, which duh. However, those who say "Michigan only lost walk-ons off a tournament team should be in the tournament, bro" need to keep in mind that, as much as this team underachieved, last year's squad most definitely overachieved.
Luck most certainly played a role (F you, Evan Turner), and fortunately, Ken Pomeroy has a "Luck Rating" which measures a team's performance against expectation based on Pomeroy's rankings. Last year, Michigan was +0.004 in luck, 131st in the nation. This year? -0.086, 330th out of 347 D-1 teams. This team was horrifically unlucky this year, and slightly lucky last year, making the quality difference between the teams look much more severe than it actually was. In the end, Michigan finished 50th last year and 60th this year. The slide was real but not as severe as the numbers suggested.
For the record, this year's painfully inconsistent team was 238th in "Consistency" to Pomeroy. Last year's was actually worse at 266th.
Can It Get Better Next Year?
As the perpetually optimistic Michigan fan, I am inclined to say yes without even really thinking about the question. [Ed.: An exercise for the reader: if Tim is still perpetually optimistic, what short of a nuclear explosion centered on Michigan Stadium could cause him to lose this trait?] This team has to improve, right?
That partially hinges on the professional whims of Manny Harris. The eyeball test says he needs a senior, but he may be ready to move on. For what it's worth, Sam Webb suggests it's 65-35 Manny stays. The recruitment of Trey Zeigler is another huge factor, as he would be an instant-impact type.
The roster composition should be different next year either way, as Jordan Morgan and Blake McLimans will add some size. For the first time in Beilein's career at Michigan he'll have a true 4 for his system in the form of incoming freshman Evan "Metrics" Smotrycz. They'll have to be ready to contribute, since both of Michigan's post players are moving on after this season.
Michigan's shooting should (hopefully) improve after a decided downturn this year, and the roster should be much more experienced as long as Manny returns. Assuming "luck" is essentially random, the pendulum should swing back the other way (though that's not guaranteed - look at the football teams' turnover margin this fall), and hopefully break even at worst. If Manny comes back, it should be season in which Michigan contends for the NCAA tourney. Life on the bubble isn't satisfying four years into Beilein's tenure, but that's life.
The 2009-10 athletic season is on its way out, and bright times are ahead.
[Ed.: FL RB Demetrius Hart was high on every Michigan fan's list of desired and expected commits early in the recruiting cycle, but that was before a flurry of articles in which Michigan found itself on the outside looking in of a top three consisting of Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. Tom caught up with Hart and discovered a recent change in plans that should see Michigan re-enter Hart's recruitment as a serious player. Without further ado.]
TOM: There’s a rumor going around that you’re coming up to Michigan soon?
DEMETRIUS: Yeah, we’re coming up April 16th. I just wanted to see Ricardo, and see the spring game and everything. We’re all family, so we look out for each other. My mom is like Ricardo’s Aunt, so we’re all close like that.
TOM: What prompted this visit?
DEMETRIUS: My mom is going to have a meeting with Coach Rod, and talk to him about everything that’s been going on. She has a lot of say in this, so she needs to figure some things out. She wants to know about the allegations, and their plans for the future, and what they’re going to do from here on out.
TOM: Michigan’s out of your top three right now, but can this visit get them back in?
DEMETRIUS: Definitely. I mean, Michigan has always been the best for me, but like I said, my mom needs to hear some things. I already talked to Coach Rod about everything, so he knows what’s up. After she talks to him, then we’ll sit down and talk and figure it out. I’ve always loved Michigan, though.
TOM: After this visit, what happens from here?
DEMETRIUS: I had a timeline, but I’m not sure. I want to take this visit, then one to Alabama. After that, I’m just going to go with the flow, and see what happens.