A position-by-position look at Michigan's 2009 season.
The season preview's section on quarterbacks was pretty grim. The main comparison point was the 1995 season, when Scott Driesbach started as a freshman and was knocked out for walk-on Brian Griese. In retrospect, that's freakin' eerie, man. If the coaching staff hadn't inexplicably decided to go with Sheridan at the beginning of the year it would be a virtual carbon copy of that season's QB situation, except for the fact that Sheridan isn't going to lead a national championship team, get drafted in the third round, and have a decade-long NFL career.
That didn't mean 1995 was any good:
Michigan quarterbacks combined for 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, completed about 53% of their passes, and struggled to crack seven yards per attempt with an All-Star cast of future NFL receivers: Amani Toomer, Jay Reimersma, Mercury Hayes.
That set the stage for a discussion of the three options. Sheridan:
He’s the son of Bill Sheridan, currently the linebackers coach for the Giants and for three years a defensive position coach under Lloyd Carr. He was honorable mention all conference in high school. He’s about six foot, maybe six one, supposedly more mobile than the competition but more limited in terms of arm strength. And that’s all anyone knows about him.
What limited intelligence we have from practice reports indicates Sheridan is a typical Northwestern quarterback, noodle-armed but bright and mobile-ish. He’s been more consistent than the competition, throws well on the run, and contrary to rumor can heave the ball farther than five yards, as this video of the “Beanie Bowl” indicates. He could be a non-liability who successfully keeps the heat off the other skill position players, and how’s that for Backhanded Compliment Of The Year?
Threet is a classic dropback artillery piece in the Navarre/Mallett/Grbac mold, 6’5” and ponderous. He was a well-respected recruit, getting four stars from the gurus and landing in the top ten pro-style quarterbacks, but reports from practice have him tentative, erratic, and slow both mentally and physically. In the winter he was lauded as an emerging leader who the team actually liked, unlike that Mallett guy; this has not translated to the field. Sheridan’s likely to struggle at some point and Rodriguez keeps saying he wants “two guys he can win with,” so Threet will see the field at some point. He’s reputed to have a bigger arm and more big-play potential… for both teams.
He’s a heck of an athlete, the small-school player of the year in Florida last year and third in their Mr. Football voting. LSU and Miami offered him as a WR/DB.
Unfortunately, he does not appear to be much of a quarterback at this point. Rodriguez claimed Feagin would “have to make an impression in the first two weeks” if he was going to be a serious candidate for playing time; a recent curtailment of his snaps indicates this impression has not been made. A week or so ago, Rodriguez made it clear he was not an option early: “He's not close to being ready.”
I do have some inside baseball indicating that the coaching staff expects to work him in at some point during the season just to see what he can do; the most likely outcome is a few drives here and there that end poorly and a position swap once Beaver and Newsome hit campus in January.
When pressed (by myself) for a definitive answer on the quarterbacking situation in the "five answers, five questions" post, I provided this:
It is possible this ends well. Michigan will surround Sheridan with a deep and varied set of receiving targets, and the spread ‘n shred can turn a wobbly-armed but heady passer into Zak Kustok or Bret Basanez. It doesn’t demand the precision howitzer Carr’s pro-style system did. The physical limitations (and senior year injury) that forced Sheridan to walk-on somewhere don’t have to be fatal.
But if we’re being honest with ourselves there’s little chance it starts well. The note of distress coming from practice observers and press conferences is clear, and the scary thing is a lot of the reported problems are things like “throws bubble screens backwards.” (Michigan fans are going to find out how spoiled Chad Henne’s unerring accuracy on screens made them.)
(Oh Holy God how I wish that sentence was not 100% accurate. Also the sentence before it.)
Though practice reports got less alarmed as fall camp progressed—there was even video evidence of Sheridan completing passes farther than six yards downfield—Michigan's best hope here is for something functional, a guy who can throw a bunch of screens and keep the offense moving.
This was the best hope. It did not come to fruition.
The Horrible Truth
It was immediately, bloodily obvious that whatever hopes Michigan had for the quarterback situation should be tossed out the window. The Utah game aftermath:
Every rational thought in your head suggests that the whole walk-on or freshman-the-coaches-are-panicked-about at quarterback, the line of baling wire and the occasional confused chicken, and freshmen everywhere at the skill positions will combine to yield an offense worthy of Yakety Sax, but until you actual see the damn thing in action you can hold out hope it will be otherwise.
We have seen it in action. It could have gone better.
There was a single-sentence bullet that's so very poignant now:
Feagin? I mean… he couldn’t have been worse.
Thus dies optimism in the House of Bo.
Threet then came in as a starter for the Notre Dame game and played spectacularly given the situation:
…that was a massive step forward from Threet, a performance virtually any freshman would be pleased with. Threet was confident, mostly accurate, and mostly right. Mental mistakes were limited to a couple of open receivers he passed up for more difficult throws and that one pass that should have been intercepted. (The other BR was a fly route on third and long which would have been a punt if intercepted.) He looked like a viable quarterback now and for the future.
That didn't last, though. Wisconsin:
As far as how the day went? Poorly. In past years we've had a metric where you add up all the good (CA+DO), add up all the bad (everything else other than PR), and take out all the screens to come up with a Competence Ratio. Threet's competence ratio in this game is 48%, which is below the 50-50 Mallett line and well short of the 2/3rds ratio that is a normal good quarterback. This was a major step back from the Notre Dame game.
Toledo was bad, too, but I chalked that up to Threet being injured, and that was obviously accurate. This from the Penn State game was, too, except I had to go back and chart him after the Minnesota and Northwestern (and upcoming Ohio State) games:
I'm not charting Sheridan anymore, by the way, as there's no point. We're very clear on his deficiencies by now and he won't see the field again after this year unless he's the last survivor of a meteor impact.
Threet returned for Michigan State:
So, yeah, ugly, ugly performance from Threet, back on the downswing from a good half against Penn State. I don't think this is all on his head, though. As Sean McDonough noted, it looked like Threet was really looping passes out to his receivers. He reminded me of no one so much as deposed Auburn starter Chris Todd, who can rainbow slants. I saw it, man.
Anyway, that elbow is obviously still bothering Threet.
And then Sheridan came in, got nicknamed Death, defied that nickname by going 18 for 30 in a dominating win over Minnesota, got re-nicknamed Suicidal Kitten in the aftermath, and didn't defy that nickname at all. Exeunt 2008.
2009, And Beyond
I mean no offense to Nick Sheridan, a scout-team quarterback pressed into service by a series of unfortunate events so vast in their scope as to be unprecedented at a program like Michigan, but God willing we never see him on the field again. And The Coner(!) is behind him. And Justin Feagin is a slot receiver.
So. We are left with this guy:
Steven Threet. At times (specifically, the Notre Dame game and the first half of the Penn State game) Threet looked like a D-I quarterback you can make a New Year's Day bowl with. He looked bonafide. And some of his less stellar moments can be blamed on youth, a new system, a shaky line, a horrible set of receivers, rain, elbow injuries, and the general bloody-mindedness of the universe. He even proved somewhat nimble.
You are waiting for the "but." Okay: but I just don't see it. On those keepers he was somewhat nimble on he was injured, twice, and that seemed like no accident. Threet's reaction to incoming defenders was to sort of slow down and attempt to Heisman them or juke them or something—what, exactly, was never clear—and that lead to a lot of incidents where Threet's upper and lower bodies were in extreme disagreement as to which direction the whole should be going. Separated shoulders and elbow injuries and concussions followed. There's a reason football put in that slide rule for quarterbacks, and it's because of guys like Steven Threet. He gon' die if asked to run 15 times a game.
And I don't think that's fixable. That's an instinctual thing. Running back is the spot in both college and the NFL at which you can throw in a freshman or rookie and do pretty well for yourself. You are trying not to get yourself killed, and you revert to base instincts.
So can Rodriguez deal with a quarterback who will die if you ask him to run 15 times a game? Probably not. Or, at least, there seem to be no point when you've got a couple guys who can do that and probably won't be that far off him in the passing game, at which Threet was incredibly inconsistent last year.
I'm not writing him off. Threet, unlike Sheridan, will be a viable competitor for the starting job next year. I even expect him to be the opening day starter. I don't expect he'll make it through the year as the starter, though. A discussion of Shavodrick Beaver and Tate Forcier is more properly executed in a recruiting post, but suffice it to say both are guys Rodriguez brought in for his system, and they'll get a spring to see what they can do.
(Threet picture found with aid from the indispensable Mike DeSimone.)
Hockey-izing. Michigan takes on Michigan State in a home-and-home this weekend and desperately needs a sweep to keep on any sort of pace for the NCAA tournament. Fortunately, Michigan State looks far more obliging this year when it comes to that sort of thing:
MSU is 10th place in the CCHA with an overall record of 4-9-3 and a conference record of 2-6-2-2. They haven't won a game since Halloween night when they beat WMU 3-1. Since then they lost seven in a row, bookended by two ties. Before exploding for four goals in a 4-4 tie against Minnesota, the Spartans had scored 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 goal in their last seven games. It's like they're starting Billy Sauer in net every night. They've scored more than 2 goals just three times this season.
Hogan will play Friday and if things go well is expected to get the start Saturday.
If you're interested in going to Munn, there are huge numbers of tickets still available. I will be in attendance.
Looking a little farther down the road than this weekend: Matt Rust and Aaron Palushaj have been selected to the USA World Junior Championship team and will miss the GLI. Michigan takes on Tech in the first round and either State or North Dakota in the second. Also, Steve Kampfer's return looks to be sooner than anyone expected:
Junior defenseman Steve Kampfer is back skating with the team and could return by the Great Lakes Invitational according to The Wolverine. Kampfer had said a few weeks ago that he was about a month from being full strength and that any decision to return to the team was in the hands of head coach Red Berenson.
That would put his return in early January, which would be great. Given Michigan's scoring struggles it also might mean a return of Chris Summers to forward.
Scapegoatin'? People have been muttering about a potential change at defensive coordinator ever since Justin Siller turned Michigan's secondary into Swiss cheese, and this might be an indication the mutterings have some validity:
Miami (OH): We hear that Michigan defensive coordinator Scott Shafer is interested in the Miami (OH) head coaching position.
That's from "Football Scoop," which is a website I've never heard of and may not be credible. I tend to give any site that reports on the fate of schools from Michigan to Eureka College the benefit of the doubt.
There have been some rumors—nothing solid—suggesting that Shafer was not likely to be back next year; this could be a symptom of that. For the record, I remain ambivalent about a potential change.
Rick Leach. No one in associated with the program has been more publicly supportive of Rich Rodriguez than Rick Leach, and here's another example:
“I’ll make you a promise before I go,” he said. “My promise to you is, I know that day’s coming. Maybe you had your fun and got your pound of flesh out of Michigan after 33 years. I don’t care if it’s Mark Dantonio, Charlie Weis or - you better believe it - Jim Tressel. Your freakin’ day is coming.”
This will draw immediate comparisons to Charlie Weis' statement last year that people should "have their fun now" (or, if you're Syracuse, in the future) but here it's a loose cannon ex-quarterback and not, like, the freakin' head coach.
Not a good week for Michigan State receivers. Remember Charles Rogers? Yeah:
Jail records show the 28-year-old Rogers has been locked up since Wednesday.
I still think Plaxico wins.
So, the football bust was last night and word has spread that a few players weren't present: Carson Butler, Avery Horn, and Sam McGuffie. This is obviously a sign they won't be around next year. Some brief words on their status.
A couple sources suggested Butler was the guy who Rodriguez mentioned had not been present at the first team meeting after the season. Supposedly he was part of that flareup on the sidelines in the Ohio State game and challenged Rodriguez to an honor du-el or threatened to St. Valentines Day Nerd Massacre him or something. That sounds farfetched but I've heard the exact same story from two different sources. Butler was already hanging by a thread under Carr and quickly found himself in Rodriguez's doghouse for, you know, never blocking anyone.
Personal opinion on his departure: extremely likely.
Horn got to return like one kickoff the whole year even when two or three of the running backs in front of him were out. The writing is on the wall; I haven't heard anything specific on his status but a playing time transfer (Fresno State?) would make a lot of sense.
McGuffie. Hey, this electrical socket seems fun to stick my hand into. Ouch. Let's do it again!
So, yeah: yesterday Tom got a couple of independent reports that McGuffie was out again, and then came this bust thing. I think he's gone this time, and also expect him to change his mind fifteen minutes after this post goes up.
If that's the whole flood of transfers—and these remain unconfirmed—Michigan got off easy. Other than McGuffie, the guys leaving (Babb, Chambers, Horn, Butler) were noncontributors. Babb and Butler did play a bit, but not well, and it was clear the staff was looking for better options.
Chambers was a potential contributor at safety or linebacker and his departure does thin the ranks at an already thin position, and McGuffie showed potential before his concussions.
Okay: we are in MGoBlog's annual season-over-I'm-burned-out period. Posting slows and for the next few weeks you're not going to get many 5000 word exegeses; I will get the OSU UFR done sometime before Christmas.
At that point I'll look towards the summer and various improvements that can be made to the blog. Last year's project was the move off blogspot to the current digs. This year's projects are still up in the air.
A list of things under consideration:
- The addition of a rating system for diaries and posters in general that will bubble high-rated things up to more prominent positions and bury low-rated ones.
- More prominent access to diaries and the like; a better page for each user.
- Creating a full-fledged recruiting wiki.
- Similar to the above, adding in player pages and so forth.
- A revamp of the comment system.
- Improving the interface for posting diaries and comments.
- Fixing the stupid bug that never sends emails to some people who register.
A couple things I'm committed do doing:
- Restoring tags to all the posts moved over from blogger and all the posts from this season I was too lazy to tag because Drupal made it a pain to do so from Windows Live Writer.
- Creating a local streaming video solution so I can host UFR clips without someone shutting an account down.
I know there were a number of complaints when the site first launched but I figured a good portion of them were just the natural tendency to hate change; anything that's still bothering you is an issue. If you've got something you're wishing for, leave a comment or send me an email and I'll add it somewhere on the list.
Oh, yeah: how is the performance of the site? It seems slow to me but has gotten better of late. Is it a problem for people?
12/3/2008 – Michigan 70, Maryland 75 – 5-2
Well, they lost, but they did so in encouraging fashion. This is the place Michigan basketball finds itself in ten years after its last tourney appearance: losses to meh ACC squads—no one really expects Maryland to make the tourney—are signs of encouragement. Eh… I'm okay with that.
I hardly remember a good Michigan basketball team. I remember sitting in a couch stolen from the South Quad lobby and watching three-seed Michigan lose to UCLA in the second round, and then it's a black hole of Dom Ingerson and Pete Vignier and Maurice Searight and Courtney Sims and so forth and so on. Even that one year in which they looked pretty good and briefly led the Big Ten was followed by an epic, tourney-bid crushing collapse down the stretch. At work I listened to Michigan lose their first-round Big Ten tournament game to Minnesota, at one point giving up four straight fast-break buckets off turnovers.
And, honestly, I hated that 1998 team even before it became clear that Taylor, Traylor, and Bullock were strangling the program by taking money from a guy they had been explicitly told to avoid. Taylor was a sullen loafer who would become the NBA's worst-rebounding power forward; Traylor would lose 50 pounds right before the draft in order to get some idiotic team to pick him, then immediately gain it all back after he got that cheddar.
It was little surprise he was convicted of tax fraud for helping a drug dealer launder money. These guys were hard to root for even when they won, and that broken backboard picture is a perfect metaphor for what they did to the program: it's pretty now, but picking up the shards is going to be long, bloody work.
I haven't actually liked a Michigan basketball team since Jalen Rose was around. So I sort of like these guys and they might be sort of okay, and this seems just fine to me.
Last year Michigan lost for a lot of reasons, from terrible fundamentals to lack of talent to walk-on point guards. The walk-ons remain, but just for another three games. The fundamentals are better. The lack of talent remains apparent at certain spots in the rotation.
Add it up and you get a really fringe NCAA team that needed a couple of lucky games to slide in as a ten seed. They managed to get one against UCLA, and entered the second half against Maryland up six, opportunity beckoning. The NCAA tournament lay prostrate, saying "just finish this off and go .500 in the Big Ten and you can make a brief, unsuccessful appearance in me." Michael Scott materialized and exclaimed "that's what she said!" Two minutes later Michigan recovered from the shock naturally caused by the spontaneous appearance of a fictional character; they were down five and couldn't dig out.
This happened last year, too: I remember a competitive game with Boston College that went horribly awry early in the second half. That game got blown open, though, and this one see-sawed between one and four points for most of the second half until Maryland got a dagger three with the clock winding under three minutes. They stuck close, and had a chance. Having a chance is the difference between 10-22 and the NIT; taking it was the difference between the NIT and the NCAAs.
And I'm okay with that. The team is going in the right direction and there is a guy who wears 0 and another one who looks like Spock and another one who will probably play in the NBA but, like, be a good rep for the program. Ben Cronin is going to be endearingly awkward for four years. And the tourney will beckon again.
- This is going to be a lot of complaints, I realize after I wrote the below, but I'd like to stress I'm totally on board with Beilein and if Manny returns next year that team should break the ignominious streak.
- I'm sure this is a shared concern: what is with Beilein's rotation? David Merritt is a walk-on for a reason and Kelvin Grady is the perfect sort of point guard to break a press without a sweat. Grady should have seen like 35 minutes with Merritt coming in only when Grady's dead.
- Similarly, Anthony Wright killed us in the first five or six minutes, launching up a torrent of errant threes and making poor decisions. With Jevohn Shepard looking like a functional basketball player—which is a Beilein-induced miracle, I say—he should be getting Wright's minutes.
- …or Stu Douglass should. He was largely benched, as far as I could tell. (I watched the game at a bar because no one gets ESPNU.)
- Speaking of Douglass, does he have Spock hair or what?
Sorry I couldn't find a better picture, but check it out the next time you see a game. Kid's hair is way Vulcan. I am going to shout "highly illogical" whenever he makes a ridiculous three.
- After a few games of looking useless, Novak has really come around. Douglass and Novak are the kind of kids successful mid-majors are built around. Either one of them could play for Butler and one might pan out to be that scrappy 12-seed's best player as a senior. This is night and day from Amaker, who grabbed unheralded recruits like Ron Coleman and Jerrett Smith and Wright (who didn't even start for his high school team!) and saw them play like the kind of kids D-II teams use as role players: Smith is Grand Valley State's seventh-leading scorer and has an A:TO ratio of 19:17.
- Assuming a loss to Duke, the next major event on the schedule is the debut of Laval Lucas-Perry. If he's as good as advertised Michigan just might eke that tourney bid, as he'll be sucking minutes away from walk-ons. The leap to a functional player who looked pretty good as a freshman at Arizona should be vast.
- Damn you, Ekpe Udoh's AAU coach.
Why? There are certain things that burn themselves into your brain and never leave. These are unusual events, like a punt return touchdown against Ohio State or your brother setting his pillow on fire. Usually they don't involve charts:
What is this a chart of? Rick Reilly's dental jokes per year. It is part of an extensive article by Josh Levin that contains perhaps the most pointless project ever undertaken by man:
As a service to sportswriting and dentistry aficionados, I've compiled all of Reilly's tooth jokes on a single page, with a link to the relevant story when available.
I… what do you even say? I spend my life dissecting college football in minute detail and at some point I laughed out loud and asked "why? why would you do this?" One thousand cocktails to Levin.
Basketballin'. Michigan-Maryland at 7:30 tonight on ESPNU, which no one gets. I assume someone will ask for streaming info on the board and someone else will provide it, so if you're like most of America and don't have ESPNU you can watch it on the computer.
Assuming Michigan doesn't get any additional Savannah State-like scares from the smaller teams on the schedule, the upcoming game against Maryland looms as perhaps the biggest of the year. Win and you're likely to hit the conference schedule with just two losses, both to Duke, and the scalps of Maryland and UCLA. A .500 conference record probably gets Michigan in the tourney. Lose and you're probably going to have to go 10-8, which seems doubtful.
Oh, I guess they could beat Duke. But probably not.
While we're on the subject of Duke, this should be fun:
Jay Bilas, a former Duke player, is going to be the color commentator for Michigan's game against Duke on Saturday.
Over/under on patently false accusations Amaker wasn't given sufficient opportunity at Michigan is set at two.
LOL. A Scout headline($):
Muschamp to Visit Hicks in Ohio
Coach rotation? Brian Kelly is staying at UC? And they're renovating Nippert* Stadium? Charlie Weis is staying at Notre Dame? Is anyone hiring, firing, or accepting a coaching job going to make a decision that makes sense this year?
On the Weis thing: as mentioned, I'm torn. Weis has recruited a ton of talent over the past two years (his first real class has mostly washed out, with a number of four-star guys transferring) and eventually you figure Notre Dame is going to get results from it. Better to have Weis in charge than someone who's demonstrated an aptitude for anything other than recruiting, I guess. And if they struggle to 8-4 next year you'd have to imagine it will be tough for a coaching staff on terribly shaky ground to bring in more guys.
OTOH, Weis getting canned might have gotten Michigan a recruit or two and accelerated a critical building process as Rodriguez tries to stay ahead of the executioner's axe. And I generally root for chaos at rivals because unstable programs are bad ones, consistently. If Brian Kelly isn't an option there are precious few available coaches who strike me as fearsome. There's no Urban out there, and programs like Tennessee are reaching for guys like Lane Kiffin. Maybe next year someone will emerge.
*(Whenever anyone mentions "Nippert Stadium" I'm reminded of that scene in Christmas Vacation wherein Chevy Chase unleashes a torrent of accidental innuendos at a hot chick in the mall.)
Etc.: Smart Football on the Urban Meyer offense; some references to Rodriguez. A recap of the WLA-RBUAS mini-war from an unaffiliated source. Former Michigan safety Vada Murray has lung cancer. (HT: Spawn of MZone.)
To what extent do you think Paul Johnson's success this year implementing his option offense at Georgia Tech was a product of his coaching ability? Do you think RichRod could have had the success that Johnson had at Georgia Tech? Or would Johnson have had a better season for Michigan this year than RichRod did? While I have full confidence that RichRod will bring us to the promised land one day, I just don't see how you could completely attribute our season this year on lack of talent/players not meant for the system, when Johnson faced similar issues at Georgia Tech.
Thanks for considering the question,
I can't properly answer these questions without doing an in-depth survey of Georgia Tech's recruiting and retention similar to the one I did for Michigan in the "what talent?" post, and I'm not inclined to do that. I know, however, that a large part of Johnson's success is this guy:
That's Josh Nesbitt, and that lustful howl you hear is Mike Leach pining loud enough for you to hear thousands of miles away. (hhhhhyarrrr!)
Nesbitt was a linebacker-sized four-star dual threat quarterback in the class of 2007—he was part of the same class Steven Threet was. And while his year wasn't unbelievable or anything, grab him off GT and insert him into Michigan's starting lineup and how many more games do they win? Especially if you replace the Big Ten with the ACC and Notre Dame with Gardner-Webb?
Eh… probably three or four, which still brings them up short of GT's 9-3 record and status as likely the best team in the ACC. Paul Johnson's done a tremendous job and was an excellent hire.
Rodriguez… eh, not so much. I'd like to clarify my position on Rodriguez's culpability for this year's struggles: it's not "he has none." It's "I don't have any idea how much he has." I think there's a reasonable case to be made that this was a 3-9 team given the roster composition and injury situation under just about anyone. I can understand people who think that's being too kind.
What I do think: we're here now, down at 3-9, and Rodriguez has proven he can pull programs out the fire before. I'm pretty confident he can do it again.
This showed up in the inbox titled "Why I drink":
( The reader noted that a hat tip should go out to This Is Indexed.)
This is not relevant but I have to get it off my chest, as they say:
Brian, doesn't it seem like Tennessee is making the same mistakes that Nebraska, Notre Dame and Syracuse made by hiring NFL coaches? Lane Kiffin, really Vols? How did it come to this guy down in Knoxville?
Absolutely. What on earth made Lane Kiffin a hot coaching candidate? Even if you don't hold his tenure with the Raiders against him, and you probably shouldn't, you're hiring a guy whose main accomplishment was not screwing up USC's offense the year after Norm Chow left. Once the Chow-taught guys exited, USC's offense sank considerably.
His main assets are a reputed ability to recruit (which would be great if he was your offensive coordinator) and his 68-year-old father showing up as a defensive coordinator. Which, okay. How long, exactly, is Monte Kiffin going to keep coaching? Minnesota just made the same hire, basically, by picking Brewster. And I guess that's fine if you're Minnesota, but Tennessee should be able to get someone more proven.
Also stupid: Clemson hiring a WR coach instead of going on a search. The only program out there who seemed to know what they were doing was Syracuse, which was pursuing Chip Kelly, and now Kelly is the coach-in-waiting at Oregon so they're SOL. I don't understand why someone hasn't thrown stupid money at Brian Kelly, even if he is a legendary jerk.
Update: Clay Travis, Tennessee fan guy, is also kind of leery.
Your top ten is pretty boring, but we do answer the question "Texas or Oklahoma" emphatically: Oklahoma. This is far different than the results in the Coaches/Harris polls, which are virtual ties, and speaks to the poll's emphasis on overall resume as a guiding factor.
Much discussion of that, and the rest of the top 25, is available at CBS Sports.
Only one change: moving Texas above Alabama. There was a fierce, intelligent discussion in the comments that I considered but ultimately didn't change my mind, as I found this argument from LandonC most compelling:
As for Oklahoma/Texas debate... here's my problem with the argument of going straight to head to head. If Oklahoma had merely beaten Tech by 14, most people would still consider all three as being more or less tied. Then Oklahoma's advantage in non conference schedule would obviously carry the day. So Oklahoma is being punished for clobbering tech by 41 or whatever.
Also of note, If you look at the computer rankings they go Okla 1, UT 2, and TT 4, roughly tied with UT getting the bump over TT by having played Missouri. In my mind there's only two reasons for TT being completely eliminated from the conversation: Polling bias early in the year against TT and Oklahoma's outstanding game. Neither reason is good enough in my mind to eliminate TT from the comparison and thus turn to TT-Okla head to head results.
In my mind we're still picking from three teams that are 1-1 against each other, and the head to head Texas win can't be considered in isolation. Before Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State by 20, Texas had the better overall resume; now Oklahoma does. I would again like to stress that There Is No Right Answer here and that many of the Texas arguments are convincing.
Side note: why even have divisions? If the Big 12 did away with the N/S distinction we'd have a super easy way to figure out the answer to "Texas or Oklahoma": the Big 12 championship game. CFB would be better off if the 12-team conferences added another conference game, got rid of divisions, and just took the top two teams for the championship game.
On Monday I posted my blogpoll draft ballot and, I guess, in it is contained my opinion on who should play for the national championship: the SEC champion and either Oklahoma or Texas. This is not controversial. My exact ordering of the teams, however, may be:
MGoBrian's got his draft ballot up and he decided on Oklahoma ahead of Texas, for the reasons we've discussed multiple times here already. Though he mistakenly replaces on Texas' schedule Kansas with Kansas State, I'm certain getting that right wouldn't make a lick of difference based on his ballot and published reasoning.
No, what makes Brian's ballot a frontrunner for the wack ballot watch this week is not OU at #1, but Texas at... #4?
You read that right. Brian offers the standard TCU-Cincinnati bit, decides to toss out head-to-heads and common opponents, and rolls with OU at #1. Fine. I dislike the analysis (and find it comically thin considering its publication immediately following a highly nuanced ND 2007 vs Michigan 2008 analysis), but have acknowledged repeatedly that the adopted line of argument clears the lowest bar: Not Irrational. Where Brian really falls off a cliff is in sandwiching Florida and Alabama between the Sooners and Longhorns.
That's Burnt Orange Nation, and they're a little cheesed off. Obviously.
My first thought: "who cares? It will all work itself out this weekend." I was a little taken aback by the stridency of the response to a ballot that's just a draft (and, yes, admittedly a little thin on the justifications), especially when it would be moot a week from now.
Then I remembered the reason Oklahoma was going to the Big 12 Championship game. No wonder Texas fans are a little punchy about polls.
My ballot was apparently the last straw for Peter's faith in the rationality of humanity. The title of the post: "The Day That Common Sense Died." At he throws his hands up in the air, defeated. Um… sorry about that?
Thus a meme is born, the kind that will live on forever in Longhorn and Red River lore; if Texas fails to slide into one of the top two spots next Tuesday, opinion is unanimous and vociferous enough around UT that 2008 will always be "The Year Texas Got Screwed," joining the illustrious company of Ohio State (1998), Miami (2000), Oregon (2001), USC (2003), Auburn (2004), Michigan (2006) and, if you ask them, Georgia (2007) on the wrong end of the BCS' annual stick. It could have just as easily -- and just as maddeningly -- been Oklahoma's turn this time around, given the Sooners' exceptional resumé and dominant stretch run, but their time will come. Everybody gets their turn at outrage.
Every one of those teams outside Georgia has a valid bitch, making it 6 times in 11 years the BCS has either totally failed (picking Nebraska over Oregon, leaving #1 USC out) or run across an intractable problem (three undefeated teams, six indistinguishable one-loss ones).
Every year there is some complaint and the BCS goes about fixing the problem that came before, then announcing a new Pax Idiotica in which there will be no problems forever. Wrong. As long as college football is settled on the world's dumbest playoff system, this will continue to happen.
So, I say this to Peter and Texas fans everywhere: I don't know. I don't know if you are a better team or had a better season than Oklahoma. I don't know if Florida or Alabama did. I don't know if USC or Penn State did. Since the devolution of college football scheduling has deprived us of more than a half dozen meaningful comparison points between one conference and another, I am guessing. Totally. And in this case attempting to pick between Texas and Oklahoma is impossible. I read Texas supporters' justifications and think they're totally reasonable.
This is only okay because the BlogPoll does not count. I wouldn't participate in a poll that contributed to the current BCS rankings, because the BCS is an abomination. It is the worst of all possible worlds.
You cannot oppose a playoff and be in favor of the BCS in any form: the BCS is a playoff. It is a two-team playoff in a field of 119 teams. Those teams play 12 or 13 games and have schedules so segregated it's impossible to distinguish between one-loss teams in difference conferences. It is the worst playoff that has ever been conceived. It sanctions the idea that there is a real national championship to pursue, then awards it in the worst way possible. I would prefer anything to it.
- A return to the old bowl system and entirely mythical championships
- A four team playoff
- A six team playoff
- An eight team playoff
- Anything at all, anything, God, anything
My personal playoff plan has been expounded upon on this site already, but a recap:
Six teams. Six is a great number, big enough to include all reasonable contenders, small enough to fit, and lopsided enough to make finishing #1 or #2 really worth it, as they get byes.
Home games in the first two rounds. Reward better teams for their seasons. Value the regular season. Reward loyal fans. Avoid corporate whoredom.
The first round is the week after the conference championship games; the second round is January 1st. The final is the next Saturday at least a week out. First-round losers (and everyone else) are welcome to participate in whatever bowl games they feel like participating in.
No Autobids. Autobids are stupid. Ask the Orange Bowl.
Max two teams per conference.
Final at the Rose Bowl. Obviously. Kickoff at 4:30.
Assuming Florida and Oklahoma wins in the conference games, this year's bracket:
#1 Florida vs #4 Texas/#5 Penn State
#2 Oklahoma vs #3 USC/#6 Alabama
I've futzed the seeds to prevent second round intraconference matchups.
Is this perfect? No. It's hard to leave Utah out.* Does it crown a better champion? Yes. Does it maintain the drama of the regular season? Hell yes. The SEC championship game is the difference between a first round bye and a second round home game and a first round road game if you even make it. Is it 10000% better than what we've got now? Yes.
I'm not a big fan of the eight-team playoff proposal with autobids for all the BCS conferences. Frankly, no one in the Big East or ACC has any business playing for a national title this year, and in previous years that goes for the Pac-10 or Big 12 or Big Ten or SEC, too. But it would be so much better than what we've got now. I no longer care about the tradition of the bowl games. They've sold out for more money and more games and this whole fifth game was a transparent money grab that gives us a slew of awful matchups every January. It's impossible to love something with "Fedex" as part of its name. The bowls can die for all I care, with the exception of the Rose.
*(I've done these the past three years and this is an unusual situation. Most years Utah would get in.)