Carlos Brown pitching the ball; via the Daily.
There was another open-ish practice yesterday. It was significant for two events. Event #1 was Mike Shaw smoking guys. Jim Carty:
The freshman from Ohio sprinted past the first defensive player, then cut back around the second. If that had been all he did, it would have still been an impressive display of speed and shiftiness, but highly touted freshman corner Boubacar Cissoko was still between Shaw and the end of the cone.
Shaw hinted at a move and then simply squared up and pancaked Cissoko. Rolled right over him. With authority.
"Ohhhhhhh!" went the team.
"Wow," whispered a reporter.
Shaw and McGuffie were specifically called out as freshmen who will be contributors this fall:
"(They) are two guys who will not be redshirted," Rodriguez said Tuesday. "The biggest (issue) as freshmen coming in is, can they mentally handle the schemes and the pace? Those two have shown they can so far. They've done enough to convince us they can contribute as freshmen, and I think as much mentally as physically.
"They're both fast, explosive players that I think are good with the spread system, so we're excited about it. As much as anything, I like the way they practice. Coming here in the summer helped. They're practicing like they've been here longer than a couple weeks."
Elsewhere in the youth movement on offense: Odoms and Robinson are obviously taking hold of the slot position. Toney Clemons, the nominal spring starter at the position, is now moving between the slot and outside receiver. Kevin Koger got special mention when tight ends were discussed; sounds like that DE move is off the table; Barnum and Khoury mentioned in a question about which true freshmen OL have a shot to play. No O'Neill, about which more later
Event #2 was a seismic shift in the quarterbacks competition. You can read this on any of the premium sites or in the Carty article, and I believe it to be true: Nick Sheridan, not Steven Threet, is your probable starter. The media got to see Sheridan significantly outperform Threet yesterday in the 30 minutes they were allotted. I have some inside baseball on this one suggesting that this is no smokescreen or motivational ploy and that Sheridan is currently the legitimate favorite to start against Utah. Hide the children.
This may not be hugely important. No matter who starts chances are he struggles at some point and the other guy gets a chance to prove himself. But the assumption that it was Threet with Nick Sheridan an emergency option is right out. According to Rodriguez, Feagin...
Justin has been okay. He was a little hampered the last couple days with a sore shoulder. This morning he looked a little bit better, but he has got a long way to go, more mentally than anything else, because there is so much for him to learn.
...does not seem a viable option yet.
Inside bits! A previously-reliable emailer provides practice insights from someone with an opportunity to take in an entire practice session:
- Practice is extremely intense and the tempo is high. This would normally be blah blah blah but this individual has seen a lot of different colleges practice; this is a notable difference between Michigan and the typical program. Coaches were a little too intense, maybe, choosing to yell at guys instead of showing them how they screwed up. Notable exception: DC Scott Shafer, who was a technique hound instructing everyone on the defense.
- The offensive line, as expected, looks rough. O'Neill has a great frame and upside but is not ready to play this year.
- Confirmation that the young tailbacks looked excellent; Shaw "one of the fastest players I've ever seen in college."
- Thumbs up to Cissoko.
- Regarding EEEE Barwis: it's not so much that Barwis is a god who raises wolves and all that, but that Michigan's previous regime was hopelessly out of date. Of all the football factory schools, Michigan had a reputation around the NFL for having the least prepared, least conditioned athletes. [I find this a little hard to believe given all the guys who leap directly into NFL starting roles, but this guy's assessment comes from a place of great credibility. It does seem clear that some guys had ample motivation and training (Edwards, Hart), but others (Watson) were just this side of "blogger." -ed]
- Trent is "way ahead" of where he was last year at this time and is the best NFL prospect on the defense. (Of players eligible for the next draft, so it's basically just him and the DL. I don't know if that's good. Next bullet.)
- The defensive line plays too "stiff" -- not exactly sure what the upshot of this is -- and was not as impressive as Michigan fans might hope.
- Not shocking: things are "ridiculously open" compared to the Carr regime.
Let's see Weis try this. Entertaining tidbit from Mark Snyder:
[Rodriguez was] standing over kicker K.C. Lopata as well, trying to rattle him on each successive kick, wagering something out of our earshot. Yet it became abundantly clear when the kicking drill was done and Rodriguez himself hit the deck and cranked out a bunch of pushups in the middle of the field. Rodriguez's energy with the players was clear and they all seemed to be engaged by his interaction.
And finally we can say what we've been waiting to say. The uniforms are official, the pads are on, and there's no quarter left for Michigan football fans:
The away jerseys suck.
Uncle. The thing with the massive season previews that are a summer trademark of MGoBlog is this: they take a buttload of time. This is the point. They're supposed to be the bar-none definitive preview, relatively error-free and more penetrating than your generic "X starters return" item. But I sunk two months into the new site this summer instead of, like, anything else, and have two previews up three weeks before the season starts. The rest are obviously not going to get done, and this is a Michigan blog at a time when Michigan is entering a new era of its program. So, like, screw the rest of the league.
- Purdue and Penn State are done.
- Michigan State is already half-done so I'll finish that one.
- I'll try to do Wisconsin and Illinois since they're interesting.
- Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern and Ohio State will get vague overviews, but not the full treatment. (Four meh-ish teams, two of whom are off the schedule... and Ohio State? Well, what is there to say about OSU that's interesting? Obvious favorite in the league, potential issues at DT and QB. End.)
- Michigan gets the usual.
A stranger could have loved that town. File under "Only In Ohio":
A teenage employee celebrated his birthday by taking a bath in the utility sink at the Burger King in Xenia. Greene County Health Commissioner Mark McDonnell was emailed the video that appeared on MySpace.com and is now using it as evidence. ...
In the video, the employee dumps water on himself using a bucket marked with the words, "sanitary solution." But McDonnell said the sink is used to clean utensils and there is nothing sanitary about what the teenager did.
If you're in the Xenia Burger King you've already died and are in hell, so feel free to eat whatever you want.
If you missed it, I wrote a Deadspin-ish preview of Michigan for Deadspin. The commenters were unimpressed because they are Deadspin commenters and if they were to actually enjoy anything that wasn't a dick joke they would burst into flame. This inscrutable comment was my favorite:
Was this article turned down by Slate?
Is that compliment? I like Slate. What does it mean to be an article turned down by it?
Rings and stuff. I've gotten a couple requests for Olympics coverage. This is not happening. As mentioned I'm kind of all like "F*** ITS THREE WEEKS TO FOOTBALL" -- which is a weird feeling, let me tell you -- and the Olympics... well... meh. I enjoyed the 56kg weightlifting competition because watching tiny men lift Charlie Weis-equivalents is always fun, and seeing Middle Kingdom on national TV was pretty surreal, and Bela Karoyli says things like this:
"they're on the better place than to be in the first place right now. they are under UMBRELLA. UMBRELLA of PROTECTION -- PROTECTIVE UMBRELLA."
And that is awesome. But I'm not going to cover it. I suggest checking out MGoSwim for all your Michigan-related swim Olympics stuff.
We will use it for good. Lake The Posts highlights an particularly relevant section of an SI article on the spread offense:
...there was a great nugget in the piece on the fact RichRod and Walker were good friends. RichRod taught Walker the spread and as RichRod claims in the article, we took it and ran with it without even changing the signals.
This is particularly relevant because of the delightful table I constructed in the process of writing the "Holy Hand Grenade" article for Hail To The Victors 2008 that showed Northwestern smoking Michigan in YPC until Walker's death a couple years ago. Here it is, live in memorex:
|YPC||Nat'l Rank||YPC||Nat'l Rank||YPC||Nat'l Rank|
I've seen a lot of Northwestern's offense over the years and was confident it was similar to the Rodriguez spread 'n' shred; I didn't think it was the exact same thing.
That sounds like a battle tested guy. The AP inadvertantly summarizes everything about how Jimmy Clausen was the platonic ideal of an overrated recruit:
Jimmy Clausen figures he got hit a total of five times while his teams went 42-0 in high school. At Notre Dame, he was sacked six times in his first start and was so beat up after seven games he missed the next two.
A smallish quarterback two years older than his competion playing for a small-school power surrounded by major D-I talent who never so much as saw a rusher or, like, coverage is not "the Lebron James of football," as he was dubbed.
Just what they needed. Adam Rittenberg's Big Ten blog on ESPN has been invaluable in my previewing, but I wonder which Michigan State he's been watching the past thirty or so years:
"All the time," linebacker Adam Decker said when asked how much the players discuss Michigan. "Coach Dantonio came in here and made that game a point of emphasis. As a player, that's great because I'm from the state of Michigan [Rochester Hills]. As a Michigan State player, you want to beat Michigan. It's emphasized every day."
This is thought to be a good thing despite Rittenberg noting that the "sleeping giant" Michigan State program has a history of October collapses. Until recently, the annual October collapse was always because they'd shot their wad against Michigan and felt free to descend into an orgy of incompetence.
Note to poll voters: if you did not receive an email from me, please let me know. The first poll comes out Monday and you must be apprised of URLs and such.
SB Nation's excellent Missouri blog Rock M Nation will be joining the BlogPoll this fall, and they've thrown out a question to their readers: how the hell should we put together our ballots? This shows seriousness, which is an admirable quality in a voter, but a lack of deference to the poll's President For Life, which is neither admirable nor uncommon.
I've learned over time that I can't tell people what philosophy they should follow when compiling a top 25 poll. Or, rather, I've learned I can tell people what philosophy to follow and they'll just do what they want to anyway. There's only so much control you can pretend to have when the most respected college football blogger around thumbs his nose at some of the poll's published guidelines and the funniest one slaps up haphazard ballots 30 minutes after the deadline, usually after IMing me something like "oh crap give me a few minutes."
So vote how you like, with one exception. This is the exception: ballots designed to call attention to themselves are verboten. The lone spiked ballot in poll history came from Notre Dame uber-blog Blue Gray Sky after the first week of the season. Because I am stupid I deleted it, but by BGS's own admission it was designed to highlight how silly releasing a college football poll after one week of play is. This is a perfectly fine argument to make, and one I might even agree with, but your ballot is not the place to make it. Some voters tend to call attention to their ballots by their voting patterns, whether it's Straight Bangin's sadly prescient Michigan pessimism or SMQ's resume-only first week ballot or Double Extra Point's uncanny ability to have the most boring ballot; these are okay because their notability is a side effect of the voter's habits, not the entire point.
Other than that, feel free to be stupid -- because you will be stupid, iron law of polling, that -- in whatever way you want to. But I do think a unified philosophy benefits polling. SMQ highlights how goofy this polling enterprise can be:
But no one involved with any of the mainstream polls, despite their all-too-frequent use of the term, has ever defined exactly what they mean by the concept of the best team, or how they reach that judgment in comparison with that team's peers. Most of the time, the terms are described in an abstract way, as a mental sum of perceived parts, as if there existed a secret rating system, EA Sports-style, that could settle the issue once and for all.
The BlogPoll's concept of the best team in a sentence: the BlogPoll attempts to rank teams in order of season quality. This is impossible to do before the season and silly to do in the first few weeks, and at these times the poll should be regarded as an approximate guess of which teams will end the year with the highest season quality.
Suggestions to effect this ideal follow.
Once you have enough information, vote by resume only. What qualifies as "enough information" will vary from voter to voter, but I'm sure most will agree once teams are eight or so games into their schedules there's plenty of evidence to go on. Personally, by week five I try to excise everything except results. At that point there's no reason to look at future schedules, no reason to look at preaseason expectations or shiny offensive baubles. Just the facts, m'am.
When you don't have enough information, vote by your guess at team strength, not schedule. In an ideal world everyone would play an identically difficult schedule and this wouldn't be an issue. This is far from an ideal world, and some team just have nummy soft schedules. This is often cited as a reason to rank them high -- SMQ explicitly calls it out as a factor in his preseason ballot -- and drives me crazy.
Place great importance on schedule strength. The poll's greatest development in three years of existence was its continued, extreme skepticism of a Hawaii team that barely eked out victories against poor WAC teams and found itself in the top ten of most major polls and in the BCS against Georgia. That ended with Warrior limbs flung across most of New Orleans and everyone hurredly pretending like that never happened. You should take schedules into account more than it seems the other polls do, IMO.
Style counts. This is really tricky. If a team has three fluke plays go against them and loses a game it statistically dominated, what do you do? Dan Steinberg's pet Vegas Top 25 virtually ignores fluky results and thus can claim to be a better predictive device for upcoming games. The BlogPoll aims to be descriptive, not predictive.
The sad reality of college football these days is that schedules are so watered down and multiple teams will have the same records or nearly identical records at the end of the year but they'll have taken different routes to get there. So, yeah, team A had a better season if it crushed all comers and were under serious threat only a few times while team B squeezed by by the skin of its teeth, assuming schedules are approximately constant.
Back to SMQ for a pithy summary:
That is, assumptions about "the best" are frequently proven wrong by actual events. The best system, then, is not a rigid assessment of perceived strength, but an extremely fluid, strictly achievement-based approach that systematically rejects assumptions and accounts for chaos -- the inevitable black swan -- as the natural order. If South Florida's resumé is the second-best in the country in late October, then yes, it's the second-best team at that point. But probably not for long.
Co-sign. Man the ballot stations.
The latest and greatest. Mysterious Michigan insider-guy Maizeman has been offering inside bits on Michigan practices since the internet's paleolithic era, mostly over email to a select group of Chosen Ones. Now he's doing it on Go Blue Michigan Wolverine, a blog open to the public. He must not fear silent ninja reprisals from Rodriguez like he did from Carr.
I have no way to check the veracity of these things and no idea who this guy is or how he survived the regime change with super-powerful insider mojo intact, but at the very least his posts are interesting. They may even be accurate. Some snippets follow; there's a lot of [sic] in here, just deal. Post the first:
Dorrestein vs. O'Neill:
Who would be first Offensive Tackle in game in case of injury? As of now Dorrenstein. O'Neill will put increased pressure on him as camp continues. O'Neill is simply a better athlete and could possibly play both Offensive Tackle spots although both Dorrestein and O'Neill seem better suited for Right Tackle. In Coach Rod's system, the only Offensive Line position that seems to have its special needs is Left Tackle and that makes Ortmann a very important player to stay healthy.
Sagesse and Kates:
Have been getting snaps at Defensive Tackle sometimes with second group and sometimes Sagesse is with third group. Both seem to be in good shape and are going multiple snaps when they are in the scrimmage. Martin has been with third group and has had some good battles with Khoury and Barnum.
And on the QBs:
Another problem that I saw in spring and continues in fall is Michigan's new version of the "check down" pass. What they do is take one of the slots and he will run a flare toward the sideline (which means does not take steps down the field, but "drifts" to the sidelines. When Quarterbacks feel pressure they are told to get rid of the ball which more times than not is just throwing a short pass to the slot who has run the flare toward the sideline.
This is why Coach Rod is recruiting those elusive slot type players because they will be asked to get about five-six yards out of virtually nothing. So far, our Quarterbacks are throwing this pass excessively often and think it is due to lack of confidence.
At least the checkdown route is no longer a drag that takes six seconds to open up. There's considerably more on GBMW; click through if you're tantalized.
Tacopants explained. Dr. Z gets to the bottom of Chad Henne's occasional passes to Jason Avant's eleven-foot-tall imaginary friend:
The third observation, who might be No. 1 by the end of the season, is second-round draft pick Chad Henne, a big arm from Michigan. Sometimes the ball flies on him, and I asked Dolphins' offensive coordinator Dan Henning to please give me a technical critique of the flight of his passes. I can ask the 66-year old Henning questions like that because ... listen to how far back we go. About a century ago I selected him as my All-Met High School quarterback for St. Francis Prep in Brooklyn.
"When he's wild, he's either wild high left or wild low right," Henning said. Noticing my idiot look, he elaborated. "You're serving in tennis. Serving to the ad court, you'll probably be wide low right, and in the deuce court, wild high left, so what we're trying to get him to do is open his body, pretending he's in the deuce court, to get the ball on target." I got so excited with this analogy I tried it myself and served an ashtray through a pane of glass, but the point is young Henne has one of the great quarterback technicians in the game to work with him.
I think my problem in Chicago was that I never selected anyone for a high school all star team in 1945.
Just because he's skinny does not mean he can't play DE. I can't remember where the first couple instances of the idea that Michigan played a 3-4 last year came from, but the disease has now struck a third person and can be officially denoted a trend:
Ezeh is the Wolverines' top returning tackler and the team's only starting linebacker retained from last season. He had 68 tackles from his spot at inside linebacker in UM's 3-4 defense and contributed four tackles for loss, two sacks, and an interception.
This is followed by a note that Michigan is "now" running a 4-3.
Wherever this idea originated, it's wrong. The only time last year Michigan had a fourth linebacker on the field it was in certain short-yardage situations and walk-on Max Pollock was the extra strongside linebacker. This was very rare. The confusion probably stems from the frequent deployment of nominal linebacker Shawn Crable as a defensive end, but this only happened against spread teams and on passing downs in Michigan's nickel package. And even if you want to claim that as some weird variety of the 3-4, Crable was usually playing with his hand down as a member of a four-man line. Michigan would line up in a 3-3-5 from time to time, but this was an exotic and not a base defense.
Wheeeee! High amongst the quotes that make Michigan fans want to punch a wall is "Michigan is straightforward" or "has no surprises" or "just lines up and runs directly at you again and again and it makes me, a USC Trojan, so bored after we crush them into dust." This era has apparently ended:
"Especially with the speed of the game and special formations," said Minor, a front-runner along with Carlos Brown to replace Mike Hart at tailback. "Last year, it was basically almost the same one formation, the I-set form. Now, there's no telling where we'll line up. We can do so much, and it's real good. I love it, because the defense doesn't know what to expect."
Just watching 30 minutes of practice Monday made it easy to see exactly what he was talking about. The Michigan offense never seemed to show the same formation on back-to-back plays.There were two tailbacks in the backfield, an empty backfield, wide receivers motioning into an empty backfield to become tailbacks, slotbacks turning into quarterbacks, quarterbacks turning into wide receivers, tight ends lining up in the slot and so forth.
There were more looks on display in 15 minutes than an entire season under the previous coaching regime.
Too bad the A11 is probably illegal.
Por ejemplo. Wild-something-or-other a la Darren McFadden is in the house:
Don't be surprised to see tailbacks Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown in the backfield at the same time.
"It's a lot," Minor said, when asked how often the two are lined up in the backfield.
I have no idea what's going to happen this fall, but I am sure that Rodriguez will throw the kitchen sink at opposing defenses.
Update 8/11: Linked to items on AZ DE Craig Roh, NJ DE Anthony LaLota, MD RB Tavon Austin, FL S DeAngelo Hadley, video of TX QB commit Shavodrick Beaver, SC DE Chris Bonds, TX WR Josh Gordon, GA LB Devekeyan Lattimore, OH S Isaiah Bell, PA WR Todd Thomas.
Removed LA LB Jonathan Stewart (A&M), GA WR Jamal Patterson (dropped us), LA WR Kenny Bell (dropped us), FL LB Frankie Telfort (dropped us), OK RB David Oku (dropped us), TX CB Demontre Hurst (don't think we ever offered).
The ESPN 150 is out. It's weird. Will Campbell isn't on it. Varsity Blue lists M targets and commits from it. Free Press article on the Cass Tech duo (trio?). Fitzgerald Toussaint's dad, also named Fitzgerald Toussaint, got in a knife fight.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.
Nothing really happened this week save David Oku dropping Michigan and Illinois because he doesn't want to play in a spread, so we may as well go to the controversy du jour: the exclusion of OMG shirtless DT recruit Will Campbell from the ESPN 150. Here's ESPN's justification:
William Campbell (Detroit/ Cass Tech) was the subject of much debate. We recognize he has plenty of talent, but he fell short of a 150 grade at this time. We also feel he is not a defensive lineman at the college level -- he will be a better fit on offense. He reminds us of former Cass Tech prospect Joseph Barksdale, a defensive tackle prospect who will be playing offensive tackle this year for LSU. Campbell may enter college as a defensive tackle, but we think, much like Barksdale, he will end up on offense. Campbell is a big, but raw prospect who needs to keep developing his game. It is easy to become enamored with his measurables, which garnered attention among recruiting fans, but he is a kid we will keep an eye this season.
This is stupid:
- Many colleges thought the same thing about Barksdale and told him as much. This was a major source of the rift between him and Michigan.
- Barksdale committed to LSU and got moved to the offensive line... where he played as a freshman and is now slated to start as a true sophomore.
- It's recruiting high school kids. You should become enamored of measurables because technique can be coached up.
- No, it's not ironic that Barksdale is playing on the offensive line.
Everyone who follows recruiting thought ESPN was stupid for excluding Barksdale, and they were right. He's in line to be a three-year starter at LSU. If I was Scouts, Inc. I wouldn't bring his name up voluntarily.
So I guess it's nice that the overwrought scouting report on Isaiah Bell was actually indicative of where ESPN would rank him -- Bell came in at #91 -- but I don't necessarily put much stock in it. FWIW:
Though he may not be from the largest school in Ohio, safety Isaiah Bell (Youngstown, Ohio/Liberty) stands out in a traditionally strong football area of the state. Impressive now, but the No. 91-ranked player has a ton of upside projected to the next level, both physically and athletically.
Not only does he excel on defense with his great burst and ball skills, but this long and lean athlete displays abilities as a returner on special teams. His biggest recruiting dilemma, and perhaps the major root of his national obscurity, may be trying to figure out what position to play him. He rules the secondary as a free safety but is built more like an outside linebacker. His continued physical development should dictate eventual position and success. His great instincts and competitive nature will make him a valuable football player at the college level, regardless of position. Bell is the definition of a late bloomer.
Meanwhile, Bell's teammate and RB commit Fitzgerald Toussaint did not get in a knife fight. But his dad, also named Fitzgerald Toussaint, did:
Toussaint, who has a son playing for Liberty, showed up at the game, and eventually got into a verbal argument with his ex-wife, who also attended the scrimmage. As the exchange between the two escalated, the ex-wife's boyfriend, Darnell Harris, 45, of Rosewell Street, Akron, came over to see what was going on, the chief said.
Tisone said the two men then began to argue, and knives were pulled. The chief said at some point, Toussaint stabbed Harris in the chest. Harris was taken to St. Elizabeth Health Center, where a hospital spokeswoman said he released later today after treatment. Toussaint had come to see his son, also named Fitzgerald Toussaint.
The elder Toussaint has been charged with felonious assault. Obviously. He stabbed a guy at a football scrimmage.
A couple of defensive ends have officially chopped their lists down. AZ DE Craig Roh is down to UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Nebraska and M with a few schools hovering on the periphery. NJ DE Anthony LaLota has Michigan in his top seven; I'm still doubtful on him.
Mysterious TX WR Josh Gordon is still claiming that he wants a Michigan offer badly:
As a youngster, Gordon followed Michigan and he says the Wolverines are still his top choice now although they haven't offered him yet. "If Michigan offered me I'll go ahead and commit," he said. "It would be a great choice for me and I really want to go there."
A Michigan offer at this point, however, seems like a longshot. "Michigan came to my school during the spring, but I really haven't been in too much contact with them since then," he said. "They still send mail though and hopefully they'll come out to see one of my games."
Gordon's being pursued by A&M, Nebraska, Missouri, and some smaller schools but has fallen precipitously since the Army All American combine, where he and Bryce McNeal were widely hailed as the two best receivers. This landed McNeal in everyone's top 100; Gordon has two stars and is Scout's #200 wide receiver. He reports qualifying test scores but Michigan hasn't even given him a sniff. Weird. I've downgraded him to gray.
Similarly mysterious PA WR Todd Thomas now says Pitt leads:
Thomas, the all-state senior from Beaver Falls, is considering scholarship offers from a roster of schools that includes, tentatively in the top five slots, Pitt, Penn State, Boston College, Michigan and Ohio State.
"Pitt's been coming on strong lately. I'd say Pitt's at the top of the list right now."
There is no freakin' way Thomas has an Ohio State offer, and given his shift from being very enthusiastic about Michigan to being lukewarm on them I think they might not be recruiting him that hard, either.
Etc.: GA LB DeDe Lattimore still mentioning M; I think Hawthorne is taking his scholarship and M will "get dropped" soonish. FL S Angelo Hadley has M in his top seven. He's a teammate of FL CB Mywan Jackson; MD RB Tavon Austin will visit Michigan officially.
This whole QB situation intrigues me. I think of Newsome as a "Black Tim Tebow" and I hope he can live up to that title. It seems to me that Forcier does not care about a QB situation and feels he can outshine who ever else hes going up against. I must admit but I do not know very much about Beaver but anyone who runs a 4.5 at 6'4" is not bad in my book. In an ideal world, would you rather have Newsome backed up by Forcier or Newsome backed up by Beaver? If Forcier does decide to come to Michigan, which wouldnt surprise me, would you think that they would try to convert one of three or would you expect one of them to decommit?
I don't think there's any way Michigan crams three quarterbacks into the class. If Forcier commits, someone's out the door. IMO, that would mean Newsome had decommitted first. But we can take a trip to Fantasy Fairyland, where Notre Dame has twenty straight national championships and Michigan State didn't blow a late lead against Michigan that one time, if you want. In Fantasy Fairyland, Forcier commits and the three recruits duke it out with Threet and Feagin for the starting job in 2009. Of those five players, only Forcier (shortish, smallish) and Threet (Lurch) don't project to another position. Feagin had DB/WR offers from LSU and Miami. Beaver has a WR offer from Texas. And when Newsome was going through his period of poor performance at camps, you could just feel the recruiting gurus begging for a move to linebacker.
In an ideal world Michigan would take all three and then have one transfer out in a couple years after getting beaten out, but that sounds distinctly sub-optimal for that recruit, and all of the guys looking at Michigan are extremely clear that they consider themselves quarterbacks. Beaver grew up a huge Texas fan and wanted to go there, just not as a wide reciever.
As to who I prefer between Forcier and Beaver: that's moot, IMO. Beaver's sticking and will be one of the QB recruits in this class. The choice, if there is one, is between Newsome and Forcier. I've made it clear that Newsome is my guy, no offense to Forcier and his ridiculous completion percentage.
Brian,Why is there so much concern/publicity over the lack of an experienced QB at Michigan. Just four years ago a second string QB named Chad Henne, who no one had even heard of, started for the Wolverines and went on to win the Big Ten.Aside from gameday experience (which cannot be practiced or replicated) Michigan has, at worst, a 5-star QB recruit and a 3-star "athlete" who happened to run and pass a lot in high school. To me this doesn't seem so bad.Besides, if you are overhauling and entire program like Rodriguez is, wouldn't you almost want "inexperience" at QB as opposed to deprogramming someone who would have to unlearn the old system?Does this make sense or am I just trying to see a silver lining?Thanks,LanceRichmond, VA
There was a huge difference between the quarterback situation in 2004 and the situation now. In 2004, Michigan had three top 100 players duking it out: a redshirt sophomore who was the #4 QB when he was recruited, a redshirt freshman who was the #5 QB, and a true freshman who was the #3 QB. Henne, in particular, could have gone to any school he wanted. Whoever comes out of that mess ahead has already beaten out some serious competition and is likely to be at least all right. Also, they were big tall strong pocket passers in a system for big tall strong pocket passers.
This year, Michigan has a four-star (not, unfortunately, a five-star) guy who was the #9 QB his recruiting year, a walk-on, and a three-star freshman who was mostly recruited as a defensive back or wide receiver. The one guy the recruiting services liked is a big tall strong pocket passer in a system for Pat White or Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick.
So, yeah: you're just looking for the silver lining.
I just got back from Moe Sport Shops and they have just recieved a shipment of new adidas jerseys--more #1, and now #10 and #4. Given that the athletic department decides which jersey numbers should be made, this looks like Brandon Minor will be given the first chance at running back this fall. In 2005, Nike made #3 jerseys (Grady), but they were still making #20, plus I think they started making them midway through the season after Hart was injured and Grady was carrying the ball regularly; given this it would seem that Minor will get the starter's job against Utah.
Kepp up the good work!
Just FYI, and another indicator this season is going to be a weird one: they're making jerseys for guys (#1) who don't exist.
If that city is New York: I am going to be in your vicinity on August 26th at the behest of the UM Club of NYC. There will be drinks and such, and then I'll give a half-hour-ish presentation on the 2008 edition of the Michigan Wolverines.
Details here. It's at a bar called Metro 53.
Pre-registration is encouraged; it's $5 for folks who aren't already members of the alumni chapter. If you bring me an infant I will do a Heisman pose with it.
Hey, this is awesome. Former Michigan defensive end Rondell Biggs got caught with steroids, said they were "post-workout" pills, and he was assisting with Michgian's S&C program. Awesome! Let's throw ourselves in a lake of fire!
It's probably not that bad, though:
U-M football spokesperson Dave Ablauf said this morning that Biggs was employed as an hourly worker by U-M's football staff under former head coach Lloyd Carr, but was not retained when coach Rich Rodriguez and conditioning coach Mike Barwis took over the program after U-M's bowl game on Jan. 1.
Biggs had ten pills of a supply of 50, an amount that suggests personal use only, and had been working out with Barwis like many other former Michigan players. Hopefully this is just a fringe pro trying to make the NFL or AFL or whatever, and nothing more. Carty mentions that Carr was not exactly Barry Switzer when it came to the 'roids:
Whatever your opinion of former coach Lloyd Carr's won-loss record, he made it crystal clear where he stood on steroids, bringing in FBI agent Greg Stejskal annually to speak to the team about the risks involved with performance-enhancing drugs, gambling and other issues. Carr was absolutely no nonsense on these issues, and is probably heartbroken over Biggs, a player he held great affection for.
Chances this is anything other than the proverbial isolated incident: low.
Awesome. The "countdown to kickoff" videos posted at MGoBlue are, of course, super-fluffy but fluffy is good sometimes. In this one the defensive line guys all come off as nice kids who are ready to croosh silly foe like bug:
(strong possibility firefox users will not be able to watch this; direct link for the affected.)
Terrance Taylor threw up after the team's first practice, lost 22 pounds, and needed a night of intense reflection to keep him from quitting football. Will Johnson is bald, can reputedly bench press a sedan as many as three times, but approaches his final season quite aware - almost annoyed - that Michigan's offense is far from good, not close to adequate, and at quarterback could just as likely feature a naïve true-freshman that asks a lot of questions and throws more out of obligation than instinct as it could a transfer from Georgia Tech that's never taken a college snap.
There is a rest of it, and I hardly have to tell you you should read it.
Uh oh? The assumption was that once a Comcast deal fell into place the other major cable providers in the BTN footprint would quickly fall into lockstep. This has not so much happened. Talks with Time Warner were promising at first. Now not so much:
''We're a little concerned that the pace of negotiations with Time Warner may not allow us to reach an agreement in time,'' Big Ten Network spokeswoman Elizabeth Conlisk said.
Time Warner man, for his part:
''The serious talking doesn't start until the 11th hour,'' he said, ''and we're in the 11th hour.''
Jasso remained optimistic that a deal could get done.
Read those tea leaves as you will.
By the way, the BTN blasted out a press release on the second season of "Big Ten's Greatest Games"; it's in a diary if you want to find out when Michigan gets its turn. Braylonfest included!
Etc.: Rodriguez does a radio interview in Alabama.
ATTENTION: if I invited you to participate, you responded to me, and you are not on the following list, please email me ASAP. I have a nagging feeling I'm missing a few blogs, but I scoured my inbox and couldn't find anything. Additions will be final by week one. Email me if you've got a problem.
- Off The Tracks (Purdue)
- Lake The Posts (Northwestern)
- Varsity Blue (Michigan)
- Michigan Sports Center
- The Nittany Line (Penn State)
Two additional cuts:
- Run Up The Score folded itself in with Black Shoe Diaries.
- Maize 'n' Brew got bumped in favor of Michigan blogs with higher traffic levels and more content.
(7 cuts; net -2. Purdue, NW now covered, net +2)
- Scalp 'Em (Florida State)
- Canespace (Miami)
- GT Sports (Georgia Tech)
- Old Gold And Blog (Wake Forest)
- BC Interruption (BC)
(Two cuts; net +3. Wake, Miami now covered but we lost our NC State coverage. Net +1)
- Bleed Scarlet (Rutgers)
(No cuts; +1, Rutgers now covered; net +1)
- Clay Travis/Deadspin (Tennessee)
- Fulmer's Belly (Tennessee)
- Gate 21 (Tennessee)
- The Hotty Toddy Blog (Ole Miss)
- Vanderbilt Sports Line
- The Joe Cribbs Car Wash (Auburn)
- The Auburner
- Third Saturday In Blogtober (Alabama - actually a weird Bama/Tenn blog; poll will accept ballots from the 'Bama half)
- Update: Bama Sports Report was one of the ones I forgot.
There is an additional cut:
- Losers With Socks. LWS is only vaguely a Tennessee blog and they have no actual analysis of the football, only short humor posts. They're bumped because of the influx of quality UT options.
(Four blogs removed for a net +5. Auburn, Vandy now represented, net +2)
- Barking Carnival (Texas)
- Double T Nation (Texas Tech)
- Ralphie Report (Colorado)
- Mizzourah (Missouri)
- Rock M Nation (Missouri)
(One cut; net +4. Texas Tech, Missouri now covered, net +2)
(Three cuts; net +1. WSU now covered; net +1)
(Three cuts; net -1. Utah covered, but we lost our Fresno State and Navy guys. Net -1.)
Totals: this year features ten more blogs covering eight additional teams. Conferences by participation:
- Big Ten: 20
- Big Twelve: 13
- ACC: 9
- Pac 10: 8
- Others: 8
- Big East: 6
We're working towards better parity amongst voters -- the Big Ten was the only conference to shed members -- but there's still some way to go. I'm willing to bend the admissions rules for a few more ACC, Pac-10, or Big East voters if you're out there.
I don't know about all this access, man. It's a lot to keep up on. The latest round of newsbits:
- Freshman linebacker Marcus Witherspoon does have a clearinghouse issue and will not participate in fall practice. They hope to get him in in September, at which point he's very likely to redshirt.
- The offense sucks, or the defense is good. Or both: "I didn't think we progressed a whole lot. I liked what I saw out of the defense today. They put a few new packages in and that may have caused some of the confusion on offense, but I thought our offense really didn't take any steps forward."
- Tight ends are "the most consistent group" they have; not surprising since they're the most veteran.
- Schilling singled out as an "emerging leader."
- Lopata "picked up where he left off."
- Moosman remains ahead of Molk but the competition is still ongoing.
- McGuffie, Shaw, Odoms, and Robinson called out as freshman contributors.
- Cissoko and Martin look like they'll play; freshman linebackers described as "very good" even without Witherspoon -- who Rodriguez called "Spoon."
- Corners should be very good; Trent praised, Woolfolk too, to go with the Cissoko stuff. Warren unmentioned but should be good.
- No position switches "yet."
- On why the offense is having a much harder time of it in fall: "Part of it was our defense was still learning and they weren't in shape. It's hard to make plays on defense when you're trying to catch your breath, got your hands on your hips."
For undoubtedly not the final time, Joe Paterno doesn't know when or if he will retire. This goes on a lengthy list of things Joe Paterno couldn't tell you about:
- why his players are treating the Happy Valley criminal code like a scavenger hunt
- advances in football technology since 1978
- the dangers of nepotism
- Jimmy Carter
- where his pants are at the moment.
And so it goes for Penn State, belted into the Paterno Express with no clear idea where the ride is going or how they're going to get off.
There can be no clearer example of this than a dedicated Penn State fan's youtube pre-homage to the coming "Spread HD," the brain -- or at least limbic-system -- child of universally scorned Jay Paterno. Without any clear direction as to just what in the hell the new offense entails, the videographer picks everything:
Jay Paterno is sick of calling Some Guy Runs For Three Yards and Oh God Anthony Morelli Thinks He Can Fit That In There and has instead decided to call Fifty Yard Touchdown on a more regular basis. An excellent plan. If only we weren't talking about Jay Paterno.
We do actually have some indication as to what JayPa's devious plan entails. Lest Pat Devlin has any illusions he should not transfer immediately:
''It's a run offense,'' Jay Paterno said. ''It's really a glorified wishbone offense.''
JayPa is running the spread 'n' shred. No, seriously. When Daryll Clark came in against Youngstown State, PSU went right for the zone read:
This is a transparent attempt to recapture the Michael Robinson mojo that led to Penn State's unexpected 11-1 season in 2005. But, hey, that's not exactly the worst idea, right?
Not that this is any surprise, but Penn State's passing game was somewhere between mediocre and atrocious while its ground game was steadily effective. This will be a theme we return to with the defense, but it would probably be best to check out the conference numbers since the toughest opponent on Penn State's nonconference schedule last year was probably Buffalo.
Said conference numbers are more polarized than those at left: Penn State was last in pass efficiency but second in YPC. It's worth noting that PSU's offense got the toughest draw in the Big Ten by skipping Northwestern and Minnesota, the two worst defenses in the conference.
It's just as you suspected. Anthony Morelli was horrible, the running backs surprisingly effective for having no NFL prospects to speak of, and the overall result was meh.
In The JayPa Era
Rating: 1. At right please find another edition of our handy chart that sums up at least 80% of Penn State's issues this millennium: Jay Paterno. Penn State's quarterbacks "coach" has presided over befuddled players for going on a decade now and has never once had a player crack the top 40 in passer efficiency. Blessed with a senior returning starter who was a precious five-star recruit in a past life, Penn State was a thudding 74th in passer efficiency.
This represented an above-average year for them.
Okay, yes, it was clear by the time Anthony Morelli threw consecutive pick-sixes against Ohio State in 2007 that he was a recruiting service miss, but it still takes a remarkable incompetence to crack the top 70 in passer efficiency once in the last five years, especially when you've usually got a pounding ground game and nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition(!) of a five-yard out.
This is a long way of saying the usual. Until Jay Paterno is relieved of his duties there is no reason to expect the Penn State quarterback to be even average.
This goes double for this year, when a mere two candidates will duke it out for the starting position. Sophomore Pat Devlin is highly-rated and immobile. Redshirt junior Daryll Clark was low-rated and mobile, which makes him the heavy favorite as Penn State returns to the run-heavy spread offense that blasted them to an unexpected Orange Bowl two years ago. Michigan fans may remember Clark as the second Penn State quarterback to wander off the field mumbling about pancakes in the 2006 game.
Unfortunately for Penn State, Clark is unlikely to be the same caliber of athlete as Robinson. Robinson was a huge deal recruit out of Virginia powerhouse Varina in 2001, a four-year starting quarterback named Offensive Player of the Year by the relevant newspaer in-state. Parade rated him the third-best "athlete" recruit in the nation. After his Penn State career he was drafted in the fourth round to play running back; he's currently the backup for the 49ers.
By contrast, Clark was a middling recruit out of Ohio, a low three-star with a couple nice offers (Iowa, Nebraska) but also a listed 40 time of 4.7. He was Rivals' #24 dual-threat quarterback that year; Rivals only rated 25. Scout gave him two stars and didn't bother to rank him otherwise.
This is the juncture where someone jumps in to say that recruiting rankings don't matter and it's all about heart and desire and you can't measure either of those things in a forty-yard dash. A response: Penn State is moving to a spread offense specifically to take advantage of Clark's athletic skills, and the thing recruiting sites are the absolute best at is saying "dayum, that guy is fast." Also we are talking about possibly the poorest-coached position at a BCS school; if there's anywhere a recruit's projected ability in high school is relevant it's there.
Clark is a slower, smaller, less experienced version of Michael Robinson, who you may remember was pure awful until his unexpected Heisman run in 2005. And, no, he's not Pat White, either, unless you can produce evidence that LSU wanted him as a wide receiver. The forecast, as always, is grim.
Tailback & Fullback
Rating: 4. It's a tribute to the rest of the Penn State staff that the Nittany Lion rushing game hardly blinked when much-maligned senior Austin Scott saw his career end with rape charges. (They were later dropped.) PSU plugged in little-used midget Rodney Kinlaw, who proceeded to tear off 5.5 YPC. And it wasn't just Penn State's candy-cane nonconference schedule: PSU finished second to Illinois in Big Ten YPC despite missing Northwestern (#74 in rush D) and Minnesota (#114!).
Kinlaw's gone now, leaving redshirt sophomore Evan Royster (above) the presumed starter. The Penn State blogger known as "Run Up The Score" is a levelheaded sort, so I tend to believe him when he says Royster is pretty dang good:
Personally, I'm hoping and praying that opposing defensive coordinators under-estimate Royster. He's an excellent running back with perhaps the best vision of any RB in the last ten years at Penn State. If you love the weird, little things in football, pay close attention to Royster. He doesn't waste a single step and gets the most out of every run. Two-yard runs become four-yard runs. Eight-yard runs become eleven-yard runs. It's uncanny. Very Mike Hart-ish, if you will. I understand the infatuation with speedy Stephfon Green, but Royster is the clear starter at this point.
Skill position players are the easiest for laymen to evaluate and really obsessive fans will put more time into player evaluation of their guys than any journalist; I'm on board.
The stats, limited though they are, back up RUTS: Royster went for 6.2 YPC last year and all but nine of those carries were against Big Ten competition or A&M. Slice out Florida International and Temple and the YPC drops to... 6.0. That's only 82 carries and therefore not definitive, but we're talking about a lightly-regarded redshirt freshman here. Chances are he drops the "lightly regarded" by year's end.
Penn State's depth at the position is sketchy, like it is everywhere on offense except the line. RUTS mentioned Stephfon Green, a redshirt freshman from the Bronx who scooted for a long touchdown in the spring game. According to Penn State's always-entertaining official site, Green "provided the Nittany Lion defense with a talented and swift tailback to try and corral as a member of the foreign team in 2007." The existence of a "foreign team" coupled with last year's revelation that one of Penn State's linebackers is named "Fritz" overloads my JoePa-is-still-reliving-WWI humor circuits.
He was a meh recruit, given two stars by Rivals and a middling three by Scout. Prognosis: bleah. Incoming freshman
Mike Shaw Brandon Beachum is a pounding straight-ahead type who many rated as a linebacker; he could be another Tony Hunt.
Royster will (probably) be one of the surprise stars of the Big Ten, Green a change-of-pace back that muddles around offering 3 YPC but mixes in a few long runs; Beachum sees sporadic carries in short yardage.
Wide Receiver & Tight Ends
Rating: 3. We've been hearing how awesome the receiving corps of Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, and Deon Butler is for going on three years now... for some reason. Butler's the best of the three and he had 47 catches for 633 yards last year. Whoop de freakin' doo. Normally this would not warrant Youtube clips, but MGoBlog rule #59 ("All highlight videos set to Bon Jovi must be deployed") supersedes:
These three are the wide receiver equivalents of Jaycen Taylor and Korey Sheets at Purdue: established, competent, uninspiring, hard to tell apart. Butler is slightly faster than the other guys and more likely to get open deep; if not overthrown he can haul it in, whereupon he will immediately fall over. Williams is shiftier but has not developed into the playmaker everyone expected when he was the nation's #1 recruit a few years back; he's basically Steve Breaston. He averaged fewer than ten yards a reception last year. Norwood has no distinguishing characteristics whatsoever.
With the graduation of Terrell Golden and the Crocodile Dundee dismissal of Chris Bell, there's no help coming unless tight end Andrew Quarless can work his way out of the doghouse. After a promising freshman year Quarless was expected to break out in 2007, but a couple of minor alcohol violations landed him squarely in the doghouse. Paterno even kicked Quarless "off the team," by which he meant "not off the team," but whatever.
Quarless spent the year in onfield purgatory, catching only 14 passes (despite being wide, wide open the whole game against Michigan). He's kept his nose clean since; as Penn State's most talented offensive player he should be a larger part of the offense this year.
Rating: 5. I was dead wrong about the line last year, predicting it to be in shambles after Levi Brown's departure and a lot of questionable shuffling. Instead, they paved the way for Kinlaw's impressive numbers above and kept Morelli relatively clean (Penn State was 34th in sacks allowed at about 1.5 per game).
The run game is the impressive thing. Every indicator on Kinlaw from recruiting rankings to four uninspired years at Penn State to his NFL fate (undrafted) was negative, and yet there is extremely strong statistical evidence Penn State's running game was second only to Ohio State's in conference. That's more likely to be a product of a kickin' offensive line than everyone on the planet, including Penn State's coaches, screwing up their evaluations of Kinlaw.
It is therefore definitely a plus that everyone is back. The interior of the line is excellent, featuring first-team All Big Ten center AQ Shipley and second-team guard Rich Ohrnberger; the other guard is true sophomore Stefen Wisniewski, who shoved a decent junior starter out of a job midway through last year. That's two established All Big Ten players who carried a who-dat runningback to an excellent season and a true freshman who bulled his way into a starting job. Jebus.
The tackles aren't quite as intimidating, though Gerald Cadogan did pick up honorable mention All Big Ten last year. Dennis Landolt, the right tackle, was decent as a sophomore and should improve this year.
Penn State's rushing defense is officially creepy, checking in at #7 nationally for the third straight year. But we should really hop right to the conference stats since Temple, Notre Dame, FIU, and Buffalo are perhaps the worst collection of nonconference offenses in the universe. (A&M, the bowl opponent, was good enough; they're outvoted.)
There Penn State goes from outstanding to just pretty good. YPC shoots up from 2.7 to 3.4, good for second in the conference but inflated by picking up a lot of sacks and missing the conference's worst rushing attack (Northwestern) and a mediocre one (Minnesota). All things considered, PSU was probably the fourth-best rush defense in the Big Ten, behind OSU, Illinois, and Iowa but considerably in front of #5 Michigan.
Pass defense was a bit worse; PSU missed the #5 and #8 pass efficiency offenses -- about average -- and finished 7th in conference. The sacks push them up a bit, but enjoying the Ryan Mallett Experience pushes them back down.
Good, not great run defense, slightly below average pass defense. Don't let the numbers at right fool you; Penn State was just okay last year.
Rating: 4. This was going to be a massive strength and almost inconceivable collection of talent and depth before Joe Paterno finally booted DTs Phillip Taylor and Chris Baker for various beatings delivered to Penn State students. Even with the departures it might be the best line in the conference.
The headliner is Maurice Evans (above), a moderately shirtless recruit who futzed around a bit as a freshman before blowing up as a true sophomore. Evans ran over, around, and through opposing offensive lines to the tune of 21.5 TFLs and 12.5 sacks last year. This would be the point where I'd break down how many of those were against serious opposition if Penn State's website worked; it does not so we just have to say "eh."
The other defensive end spot is split between mediocre Josh Gaines and edge-rushing youngster Aaron Maybin. Gaines was accurately covered last year:
Traditional MGoBlog heuristics lead one to be skeptical of a major leap forward for Gaines. He was a meh recruit in 2004 who contributed little in his first year starting despite playing next to a couple of defensive tackles who demand more attention in the passing game than most and in front of an aggressive, blitzing linebacking corps. The picture painted is one of a lot of effective single blocking of Gaines by right tackles. He was a redshirt sophomore a year ago -- less upside than a guy in his first or second year in the program -- and started largely because the situation at defensive end was so dire it required the Shaw move. If Penn State can get a mediocre season out of him, it would be a small victory.
Again, Gaines turned in 5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks despite playing opposite holy terror Evans and next to a rotating array of penetrating defensive linemen. His maximal upside is Rondell Biggs; chances are he's below average. Meanwhile, Maybin's four sacks is a good return considering his limited time last year, but they came against the confused lemming offenses of FIU, Notre Dame, and Iowa. Jury's out on him; he could waddle around for another year or make a leap to real productivity. I'm relatively bullish on him, but think he's a year away from real contributions.
At defensive tackle, only Penn State could have two major contributors axed (Taylor and Baker combined for 7.5 sacks and 14.5 TFLs last year) and still return a heap of talent. Jared Odrick is the headliner and stupendously-named Ollie Ogbu isn't far behind; both were extremely impressive when Michigan ground out a victory on 44 Mike Hart carries:
What was the deal with all the Penn State defensive tackles all up in Mike Hart's grill?
One: Penn State appears to have an outstanding DT rotation. Though Michigan had played three very sketchy defenses to start the year, they were moving guys like Trevor Laws around like they were on skates. The Lions had guys overpowering Michigan players time and again. They're young but Penn State's defensive line was extremely impressive in the run game.
(Michigan crushing Trevor Laws, who ended up a second round draft pick, remains one of the great mysteries of 2007. That performance was a severe aberration). Ogbu had 3 TFLs in a starting role in that game. Ogbu got replaced later and Odrick broke his ankle; I assume these guys will be fine. Top backup Abe Koroma was supposed to start last year before a broken foot knocked him out of the first half of the season. When he returned the guys in front of him were already playing very well.
Rating: 3. Linebacker U returned with a vengeance over the past few years as Penn State executed a seamless transition from outstanding white guy middle linebacker to outstanding white guy middle linebacker. Posluszny begat Connor who begat Lee who is in the process of begetting Colasanti. Problem: Lee's ACL exploded, knocking out Connor's heir apparent. Between the two losses Penn State is down an astounding 283 tackles, 25.5 behind the line of scrimmage. Suddenly the Penn State linebackers look a little wobbly.
True sophomore Chris Colasanti steps into the middle now. It's not necessarily that Colasanti won't be good. Lee himself was a breakout star as a sophomore, drawing attention in that year's Penn State UFR despite being flanked by both Connor and Posuszny. Whatever crazy mojo Penn State has working isn't going to stop because Sean Lee's ACL isn't cooperating. They're probably good for one unexpectedly excellent linebacker a year. Colasanti may be it; it may be someone else.
The problem comes in options 2 and 3. The past couple years I've documented a slight softening in the Penn State run defense. In 2006, Connor, Posuszny, and Lee were all awesome but the defensive line was devoid of playmakers and big, tough running attacks found success. In 2007, starting weakside linebaker Tyrell Sales had limited production (50 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3 sacks -- not bad but not Lee) and the run defense slipped to merely above average. Now you're stripping out two good options at defensive tackle and trying to find two new guys to slot in. Touchy.
Fortunately for Penn State fans, at least one player seems likely to suceed. Redshirt sophomore Bani Gbadyu was well-regarded by the recruiting services and initially chose LSU before switching to Penn State; he held offers from 40 schools including Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. He was going to step into Lee's vacated OLB spot as Lee shifted inside.
The slot vacated by Lee's injury, however, looks dicey. Sophomore MLB Chris Colasanti competes with junior walk-on Josh Hull. Michigan fans will recognize this as the exact same scenario confronting Michigan's much-discussed quarterback search, down to the experience levels and rankings of the recruits involved. (Colasanti saw a total of 48 snaps last year.) At least Colasanti wasn't recruited to be a pocket linebacker, whatever that would mean.
Bowman hasn't been productive and there are two sophomores stepping in to starting roles. Even if they're highly touted they should be a significant step down from the usual terrors. The bet is Bowman remains okay but only that and the newcomers struggle early with one emerging into a potential star late in the year.
Rating: 3. Justin King is off to the middle rounds of the NFL draft; the other five members of the secondary who saw significant time return. This would normally be an excellent sign, but as noted above the Penn State secondary was deceptively mediocre when not allowed to tee off on Jimmah(!) Clausen.
AJ Wallace (right; don't get excited, he's just returning a kick) and Lydell Sargeant return at the corners. Tony Davis joins them after an unproductive season at safety. Sargeant and Wallace fought a pitched battle opposite King last year to see who would be the frequent target of opponents, with Sargeant starting out the year poorly (70 tackles -- most in the secondary -- without a full year of playing time) before being replaced by Wallace.
At safety, Anthony Scirotto returns. He's not as good as everyone thought he was after a six-interception sophomore year, but he did get at least one All Big Ten vote from the coaches last year and that was with an idiotic seven cornerbacks in the eight slots provided for defensive backs. Insert default white guy stuff here: steady, not going to wow you with his athleticism, etc. Ten interceptions in his career is pretty impressive, though, and if the Big Ten named all-confeence teams that made a damn bit of sense he'd probably make it.
Mark Rubin, who's bounced from receiver to safety to receiver and is finally back at safety, replaced Davis late last year when Davis required an emergency appendectomy. He returns and will start opposite Scirotto.
This is probably not good. Rubin started five games, one a nothing game against Temple, another against aerially useless Stephen McGee and A&M. There was one decent performance against Purdue where Curtis Painter threw a bunch but managed only 5.3 YPA. Then this:
- OSU QB Todd Boeckman had 253 yards on just 26 attempts, throwing three touchdowns and one interception.
- MSU QB Brian Hoyer had 257 yards on 21 attempts, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Neither of those guys were exactly world-beaters late last year. Powerful anecdotal evidence from Penn State's official site:
Perhaps no Nittany Lion better defines the term "team player" than fifth-year senior Mark Rubin.
Perhaps no backhanded compliment better says "I can't believe this guy is starting" than overused cliche Team Player. Also: two time academic All Big Ten, an award inversely correlated with being Actual All Big Ten.
So. One good safety, one very probably bad safety. Three experienced cornerbacks, but none who have played particularly well. One should emerge into a star or star-ish player -- probably Wallace, who's younger, was better than Sargeant at the end of last year, and had better guru ratings -- and the others will be okay.
Rating: 4. Last year this preview described Kevin Kelly as "a version of Garrett Rivas with delusions of grandeur." This proved accurate. Kelly was perfect on 17 attempts shorter than 40 yards and 2/7 on attempts further out. Expect more of the same.
Penn State lost a good punter in Jeremy Kapinos last year, but then-junior Jeremy Boone improved significantly on Kapinos' Ray Guy finalist season, averaging 43 yards a kick. Only a third of his punts were even returned, which equals awesome when combined with the gross yardage. Penn State was third in net punting last year. Boone was first-team All Big Ten. A couple anomalous boomers helped out the cause, so expect a small backslide; Penn State should still be top 20 (top 10?) here.
Despite the presence of the universe's fastest man, Penn State returns were mediocre a year ago. AJ Wallace did have a kick return touchdown.
The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
|2006||Int +||Fumb +||Sacks +||Int -||Fumb -||Sacks -|
|0.15 (41st)||11||17||3.54 (2nd)||10||16||1.54 (34th)|
Not much to see here; close to even is close to even.
Position Switch Starters
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.
Mark Rubin doesn't quite count since his position switch happened last year, but I'm still leery of him.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
Chris Colasanti and Daryll Clark are the hinge players this year for Penn State. If Clark is even reasonably good the Penn State offense will be one of their best in the last decade. Best of the 50-cent prizes and all that, but it would be a step up. If the defense manages to hang together despite the unexpected losses, 11-1 could be in the offing.
If Clark is Troy Smith in 2005 and Penn State's defense cracks seriously, they could be .500 in conference -- not an uncommon occurrence of late for them -- and lose their actual nonconference game against Oregon State, leaving them at 7-5.
I am hugely surprised to come to this conclusion, but here it is: I think Jay Paterno is on to something with his "Spread HD" thing. He's a horrible quarterbacks coach and can't organize a passing game for crap. He's got a dual-threat quarterback sort of reminiscent of Michael Robinson, a number of little slot receivers who aren't much use downfield, and a decent-to-good running back or two. His entire offensive line is back. So why not adopt an offense that can bang out 6 YPC even when you're using the passing game as a glorified decoy?
I do think that to be great a spread offense has to have a great quarterback -- any offense, really -- and though the system might minimize Daryll Clark's deficiencies, it's not going to turn him into Michael Vick or even Michael Robinson. But I also think that the crushing offensive line is well suited for an offense that wants to run 60 or even 7o percent of the time, that Evan Royster is likely to be at least good, and that Derrick Williams is best deployed on fruity little screens. Penn State's personnel is an excellent fit for the spread 'n' shred and this could be an offense as effective as the 2005 offense was. Which wasn't great by any means, but it was good enough.
One potential caveat: maybe the big burlies up front aren't actually a good fit in a scheme that wants nimble guys to wall off defensive linemen.
Defensively, I think this is the year Penn State takes a noticable step back. They haven't been quite as good the last couple years, but lousy nonconference opponents helped cover that up and Penn State's crappy offense -- which gave opponents every motivation to get 20 points and go home -- did the rest. This year Penn State has a real OOC test in Oregon State and might have an offense that requires opponents to go full-bore.
This is a recipe for some minor unpleasantness when combined with the shaky secondary, somewhat depleted defensive line, and Shawn Lee's ACL tear. If you can get Maurice Evans blocked and get out to the young, confused MLB you'll be able to move the ball some.
|8/30||Coastal Carolina||Functional DNP|
|9/6||Oregon State||Probable win|
|9/20||@ Temple||Functional DNP|
|10/4||@ Purdue||Probable win|
|10/25||@ Ohio State||Probable loss|
Again with the caveat that I haven't looked too hard at many Big Ten teams, but I think Penn State goes into the year the most plausible challenger to Ohio State hegemony. They'll probably get submarined a few times along the way due to quarterback struggles or linebacker issues or the general decay of the Paterno era; they're still my tentative pick for #2 in the Big Ten. I'm torn between 9-3 and 10-2 here; I think we'll go with the more conservative estimate: 9-3 it is.