I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
Whoops! Posted this to my test sandbox instead of here; sorry for the lack of content this morning.
Okay, so Michigan is 2-6 and we're resigned to watching the worst season in Michigan football since… uh… sometime in Bump Elliot's tenure. Lame. The last thing I want to do is give readers any sort of hope whatsoever, since that hope will boomerang on you and slice your head off.
So unless this sounds like a good idea, stop reading.
Now that 95% of you have kept reading, intrigued by this whole sinless self-decapitation thing, I have to tell you some things.
1. Purdue might be starting a combination of John Ferrara and Nick Sheridan.
Curtis Painter's Heisman bid suffered a serious blow last weekend:
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- A slight separation of his right, throwing shoulder kept Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter out of practice Sunday.
Coach Joe Tiller said he didn't know whether Painter would practice today. The Boilermakers were off Monday.
"If he doesn't, there will be some question about whether or not he can get ready (for Saturday's game against Michigan)," Tiller said. "But he's a tough kid. Knowing him, I think he'll be ready, but I don't know if (the doctors) will let him go."
With backup Joey Elliot out with another shoulder separation, this is the guy Purdue might start:
Siller had not been practicing behind center for several weeks after his switch to running back.
(You might remember Siller as the OLSM quarterback Michigan had little interest in a couple years ago.) So, yeah, Purdue might be starting a guy third string a few weeks ago and, more recently than that, a running back.
2. Minnesota, while still probably better than Michigan, isn't your typical 7-1 team.
Aside from Florida Atlantic and, to a lesser extent, Purdue, the Gophers haven't exactly overwhelmed anyone. Their deficits in total yards and yards per play are small enough to call "Push," but not many teams are able to turn "Push" on a down-by-down basis into 7-1 in the big picture. …
• The Turnover Margin. Plus-15 is the best number in the country, but it's hard to trust any team that rides the giveaway/takeaway fairy to the bank. Minnesota led the nation in turnover margin under Glen Mason in 2006, too, eking out a bowl game by finishing +18, then immediately collapsed in '07 when that fortune didn't go its way again. Last year's national turnover leader, eerily, was Kansas, which also lost the only game it finished in the red (against Missouri). This year, KU is 1-3 when finishing in the 'Minus' column, where the only win was the frantic second half comeback over bottom dweller Iowa State. 2006 turnover leader TCU fell from 11-2 to a disappointing 8-5 with a negative margin in '07. Big turnover margins are hard to sustain/
This same backslide can happen within a season, too: if the well dries up, I wouldn't expect the Gophers to win any of their last four based on the way they're actually playing offense and defense
Allll right! WOO—
(except perhaps at Michigan, where the Wolverines have been far too sloppy to oblige that hypothetical).
3. Northwestern just lost to Indiana.
Again, Indiana could well be better than us. But.
4. They have just cancelled the Ohio State game because of the election.
That's the ticket!
Changes from the draft: Moved Minnesota down significantly, moved Boise back up, though that hinges on their win over Oregon. Said win was against Oregon's, like, fifth string QB or something and is a little dodgy. I futzed with the Big 12 teams at the end of the top ten, too.
Hello Blake. Michigan has picked up a commitment from 2009 PF Blake McLimans of New York. As per usual, UMHoops has the details:
The scouting report on McLimans is that he is a versatile 6-10 big man who can play on the perimeter. He’s skinny but he can run the floor and hit the face up jumper but also has nice moves in the post. Blake is also reportedly a solid ball handler who can hit the occasional three point shot. There isn’t a lot of scouting information on him because as was mentioned he didn’t play AAU ball.
Rivals shows offers from BC and Georgia Tech; UMHoops claims "interest" from those schools. I think we're probably talking about the latter here. McLimans didn't have a Rivals profile until a few days ago, and is unknown to Scout and ESPN. Unlike Tommy Amaker, though, Beilein has made a career out of unearthing big guys he can coach up.
McLimans finishes Michigan's 2009 recruiting class unless there's an unexpected departure. The results:
- 4* PG Darius Morris (approx #75)
- 3.5* SG Matt Vogrich (approx #150)
- 3* PF Jordan Morgan
- 3* PF Blake McLimans
Not exactly a North Carolina haul but a couple of pretty good recruits and a guy in Morgan that Beilein identified and acquired early. There are just two slots open in the class of 2010; the top priorities are a wing and a post.
Hold thine horses. Permit me a small blasphemy here. This makes no the sense:
PARK RIDGE, Ill. -- The Big Ten Conference announced its 2008-09 basketball preseason honors at the conference media day today (Sunday, Oct. 26), with University of Michigan sophomore guard Manny Harris (Detroit, Mich./Redford HS) being selected to the five-member men's All-Big Ten preseason squad.
I like Manny Harris, like his real name and his haircut and his decision to come to Michigan both before and after Tommy Amaker was fired. But if Harris is going to end the season one of the top five players in the Big Ten he's going to have to take a quantum leap forward.
Yes, Harris returns with some impressive numbers…
He started all 32 games as a freshman and led the Wolverines for the entire season in per-game scoring (16.1), assists (2.7), steals (1.4), minutes (33.0) and free throw percentage (81.7).
…but here are some mitigating ones:
- 30.4, Harris's massive usage rate last year, 34th in the country
- 22.0, Harris's massive TO rate last year, worse than anyone on the team other than… uh… the point guard
- 43.6, Harris's un-massive eFG% last year, worst on the team outside of walk-ons.
The raw numbers are nice; the tempo-free ones are Bracey Wright-esque. And then there's my personal observations. For some reason, I decided that last year would be a great year to go to around ten basketball games—a personal record—and while Harris was clearly the team's best player that's not a huge compliment when you win ten games. I have the distinct memory of a ton of turnovers committed when Harris was sitting at the top of the key, being sloppy with the ball. Those aren't on his general lack of teammates.
Of course, Harris is a guy named "Harris" playing for Michigan so he's cursed to spend at least one year surrounded by walk-ons thinking he has to score every damn basket; high usage and lots of turnovers and low eFG% go hand-in-hand.
Harris should be better this year. And Michigan returns everyone of any use save Epke Udoh, who wasn't much of a factor in the offense, and adds hawk-eyed Stu Douglass, potentially useful Zach Novak, and half of Arizona transfer Laval Lucas-Perry (eligible in January), so you'd assume the usage would go down and the efficiency up. I hope in March we're here looking at scoring average going down a little bit but those field goal numbers going up a lot; we'll see.
- Contract is six years.
- Page 5 contains a convoluted clause that indicates the buyout money Michigan is paying West Virginia is indeed taxable income for Rodriguez; Michigan will compensate Rodriguez for that income "in order that Rodriguez not be unduly burdened or distracted in connection with the performance of his duties hereunder."
- The buyout is—surprise!—four million dollars until year four, when it drops to 2.5, but they'll roll it over before it hits that, I assume.
- Jebus: "The Men's Football Program will be provided with a salary fund of $1,950,000 to be reserved exclusively for the nine assistant coaches and the head football strength and conditioning coach."
Etc.: While we're on basketball; here's an interview with Cazzie Russell.
Michigan State printed up a shirt commemorating their victory over a 2-6 team. This is why you're Michigan State.
Update 10/28: Articles on MD CB Travis Hawkins, video of TX WR commit Dewayne Peace, CA QB commit Tate Forcier, NC OL Travis Bond, MI DT Will Campbell, MI S Thomas Gordon. Local interviews with MD CB Travis Hawkins, 2010 FL S Marvin Robinson, and 2010 MI WR commit Jeremy Jackson.
Added FL WR Willie Haulstead (FSU commit but visited for the MSU game).
Removed TX WR Josh Gordon (not recruiting), MN WR Bryce McNeal.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.
Michigan's big recruiting weekend came and went without any commitments, which is unfortunate. It's pretty rough out there with all he negativity and the 2-6 and all that; hopefully Michigan can hold it together over the next few months, bring home a recruiting class around #10, and then start building for 2010. You can tell the
The reaction out there is just about all locked behind paywalls; it's the usual, with most players saying "everyone's even." I don't think Michigan moved anyone to the extent it would change their commitment: FL S Vlad Emilien looks like a good possibility, but teammate and FL CB Josh Robinson is likely to stay close to home.
These have all been featured on the blog so you likely know about them, but Thomas VanHaaren has been interviewing various prospects. MD CB Travis Hawkins has given off an Oregon vibe earlier and did so explicitly in VanHaaren's latest:
Oregon is my dream school. I took a visit, and I like the coaches. Their facilities are ridiculous man, and the players are real cool too.
Accursed Nike money! The Ducks seem likely to win out here.
In the boat.
Tate Forcier remains in the boat, and here's some video for you from the youtubes:
Faster than I thought he might be, though I think his level of competition is pretty weak.
Get in the boat!
Your weekly-ish article on MI DT Will Campbell and this blog's weekly-ish attempt to reassure you that Thor is indeed coming this way:
The competition for Campbell comes from some of the nation’s top programs. LSU is one of those contenders, and they already boast a recruiting success at Cass Tech, having lured offensive lineman Joseph Barksdale to Baton Rouge from the class of 2007. Miami is another program pushing hard for Campbell, and he has set an official visit to Coral Gables for the weekend of Dec. 14.
USC and Georgia have also been named as potential official visit destinations by Campbell. The Trojans offered him a scholarship early in his recruitment, but after traveling to Cass Tech last spring they came away feeling this is one state of Michigan target they would have trouble getting away from the Wolverines.
That should make you feel better, since it's one school not putting on a full court press. And it's USC, which will recruit anyone from anywhere as long as they've got five stars next to their name.
You are not returning to the boat.
MN WR Bryce McNeal…
GH: Have you narrowed it down to a top five yet?
BM: I’ve got a top 6, right now it’s Oregon, Texas Tech, Penn State, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Colorado.
GH: I didn’t hear Michigan on that list?
BM: I’ve been to Michigan three times, I don’t feel like I need an official. They’re kind of at the bottom of my list, that was kind of the reason for de-commiting, I just feel that there are other options out there, I want to take some other looks, and go from there.
GH: Have you told Michigan they are no longer an option for you?
BM: No, we don’t talk as often as we used to. It’s not any kind of grudge, I just kind of fell off, I talk to the coaches every once in a while, they’re still great guys, I just don’t feel like that’s the place for me.
…is not coming back. I've removed him.
Stumbled across a blog named "Next Generation Sports" that travels around the state scouting football and basketball teams; they caught Cass Tech's city championship semifinal against Cody. Relevant names were plentiful:
GAME MVP- Teric Jones, Cass Tech Jones finished with 161 yards and two TDs and constantly picked up chunks of 20 yards. He is just sick in the open field with great cut back ability and field vision.
Thomas Gordon, Cass Tech- Gordon could have also been MVP with his 146 rushing yards and two TDs. His play at safety was limited to long passing downs but you can't fault the coaching staff because Gordon is still favoring a hamstring injury and you can afford to lose your QB.
William Campbell, Cass Tech- just a pure beast and physical presence on the line. Speed, strength, technique- he has the whole package but more importantly he is a true team leader. Campbell is constantly firing up his teammates and slapping hands. He had a pair of sacks but put Hall on his back at least 6 times.
There's more, including some good pictures.
Juniors and such.
Though MI S Marvin Robinson didn't commit at the MSU visit like many expected he would, I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about:
TOM: Have you been working on any other players?
MARVIN: Ricardo Miller I know has been working on Lo Wood. I talked to Chris Dunkley, when we were at the Florida-Miami game. I’m trying to get him up to the game this weekend at Michigan.
Michigan remains the heavy leader, IMO.
Meanwhile, there's yet another Florida secondary kid on the radar: Scout has an article up titled "FL Jr CB Coming to UM – with friends?" Articles titled that give away more in their header than they contain in their body; that cornerback in question is FL CB Tyler Blandin and he might be one to watch over the next few months.
Etc.: Entertaining fluff on MI S Thomas Gordon from Mick McCabe; also depressing note on his car.
Thomas VanHaaren interviews MD CB Travis Hawkins.
One of the top cornerback recruits on Michigan's board is Travis Hawkins. Travis is 5' 11" 180 pounds, and he runs a 4.42 40. He's considered a 4 star by the recruiting sites, and has only been playing at that position for this year. He's a talented kid, that has a lot of upside on both sides of the ball. Take a look at what he had to say.
TOM: How has your recruitment been so far?
TRAVIS: It’s been going well. I’ve been to Michigan and Oregon on my officials. I was supposed to take one to Penn State this past weekend, but our game was cancelled because of a power outage so I couldn’t go. I’m going to Maryland and Florida State also.
TOM: What's your favorite part?
TRAVIS: Just knowing that I’m wanted by the top colleges. Some of the calls from the coaches are pretty cool, to talk to guys that are famous. The stuff you have to go through is a lot, but it’ll be worth it.
TOM: Are you down to a top 5 or top 3? Who are they?
TRAVIS: I have a top 5. Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and WVU and Central Florida are in the mix too.
TOM: When narrowing it down to a top 5, what factors in to that?
TRAVIS: Academics are a big part, the environment on game day, my recruiting class is important to me, if I develop a bond with the other recruits. I’m a people person; I want to get along with my future team mates.
TOM: Is everyone recruiting you at cornerback?
TRAVIS: Most schools feel like I can play both sides of the ball, Central Florida will let me decide. Michigan said I can play both sides. Most likely it will be corner; I’m still deciding what I want to play.
TOM: I read that you liked Michigan and Oregon; they seem to be who you talk about most. What stands out with them, and what are the differences?
TRAVIS: Michigan’s academic advisors were the best of any visits. They are really glued to their success. Coach Rodriguez is really relevant, he’s a good coach. Maryland is up there too, and my mom wants me to go there, and stay close to home. The coaches are cool and I really get along with the players too. Oregon is my dream school. I took a visit, and I like the coaches. Their facilities are ridiculous man, and the players are real cool too.
TOM: Do you think that you and Jason Ankrah will be a package deal? Are you both looking at different schools?
TRAVIS: We’d like to be a package deal, but some schools he’s looking at and I’m not. Where ever I go I hope he goes, but it’s not a make or break thing.
TOM: What happened with Penn State? He tried to commit and then didn’t?
TRAVIS: It was a miscommunication between the two; they’ll take him whenever he’s ready. Penn State is everything I’m looking for in a school. We both like it a lot; I’m going to set up another official there soon.
TOM: Is playing early a factor in deciding where you go?
TRAVIS: Yea it is. Most likely I’m going to graduate early; anywhere I go I feel like I could compete, either on offense or defense.
TOM: Has anyone put out any offers with conditions? If we don't get this guy, then we want you?
TRAVIS: No, I haven’t heard any of that. No coaches have put that out there for me, which is good.
TOM: When do you plan on committing?
TRAVIS: My date was November 3rd, but I’m pushing it back to the first week in December, or if I take a couple more officials, I might just commit where ever I feel comfortable.
TOM: Is it hard to stay grounded, and stay focused with your newfound celebrity?
TRAVIS: Not really, I try to put it in the back of my mind. There are a lot of people in my community that look up to me, so it’s good to be known. But you got to know how to handle it. I’m handling it well. The all American stuff, I’ll be playing in the Army All American game. Where ever I go, I’m still going to stay close with the people in my community.
TOM: What do you bring to the table? What are your strengths and weaknesses?
TRAVIS: My aggressiveness is definitely a strength, the way I play both the pass/run, and this is my first year playing corner so they don’t look at my last year’s film. They look more at my potential. They see me playing corner, even though I played safety my junior year.
TOM: What are other coaches saying about Michigan this year?
TRAVIS: Nothing really, they’re having a down year and coaches bring that up. There’s nothing really negative that they say.
TOM: It seems like you've got a good training program for yourself, and you run a 4.42, is there anything you want to improve on for College?
TRAVIS: I want to work on my backpedal, if I work on my start on my 40 I think I could get it faster. I want to learn the skills a little better, since I haven’t played corner too long. Mike Barwis at Michigan was ridiculous. He was saying stuff I’ve never heard of. He had me doing some stuff in the weight room, I couldn’t believe it.
TOM: I can't be too biased, but Michigan will have some of the best facilities in 2010, there’s 110,000 fans at every game, good national TV exposure, the players consistently go to the NFL. Is there anywhere else that compares with what Michigan brings to the table?
TRAVIS: I mean just knowing it’s Michigan, the tradition is crazy. I really like the academics part and the coaches. I talked to Coach Rodriguez a lot he was real cool. So yea it’s a good place to be.
While the end of Michigan's bowl streak is disappointing in and of itself, there's more than pride at stake. Specifically, I haven't heard anything about the value of the month's worth of extra practices that come with a bowl bid. It seems as though a team such as Michigan, with all of its youth and inexperience, would benefit quite a bit from the extra practice time. Any thoughts on this and if it sets back Michigan a bit?
There is indeed some value in the extra practices that would come from a bowl bid, but quantifying that is impossible. I don't think the effect will be huge; these days college football is a year-round activity and the hours the players don't spend in supervised practice will be spent doing some other sort of football-related activity. Any effect there will be small.
Have you ever seen Raiders of the Lost Ark? At the end of the movie the bad guys open the ark and everyone that is looking at it is melted (or something along those lines). I'm convinced that this will happen if I ever watch Michigan's offense again when Sheridan is in the game. Is there a way to watch this that will not cause me to go blind/die?
- Drink. Bob Huggins has actually seen the face of God 46 times with no ill effects.
- Blind yourself now. This will prevent you from having to do it later.
- Bet on Michigan's opponent. This is called a "hedge," and works great in the financial industry!
- Remember that football is just a game, and that you have a beautiful wife and children and a job you love and that your life is going to be okay just as soon as the game is over. If you don't have the wife/kid/job thing going for you, there's always disassembling and re-assembling pens.
- Look into Buddhism, which teaches you to let go of earthly cares other than three-man lines on potential running downs. Even Buddha hates that.
A three parter on the future:
Given the generally mediocre play of our offensive line this year, I was wondering if you had any inside information that you could share with your readers about some of the freshman who are redshirting. Are any showing great promise in practice? Given the performance - or lack thereof - of our O line, I am concerned that some of the freshman may be even worse than those who are currently starting and playing.
The two names that keep coming up are Ricky Barnum and Patrick Omameh. As far as I can tell, most insider expect Barnum to be starting at one of the interior line positions—most likely left guard—next year, and for four subsequent ones. Omameh is a surprise name, as he was one of the last additions to the class and was by far the lowest-rated, but he saw a senior-year growth spurt that got him offers from State, Michigan, and (eventually) Ohio State; there's obviously some potential there.
Rocko Khoury, meanwhile, got some buzz earlier in the year as a guy who was doing well and might actually step in at center if Molk struggled. (This, of course, is the tantalizing possibility of a Moose and Squirrel combo on the interior OL.) He could push for time next year. Dann O'Neill has a great frame and should be very good eventually, but came in needing significant work with technique and strength; next year might be too early from him.
I haven't heard much about Mealer or Wermers. Mealer had a shoulder injury that kept him out much of fall practice, so his absence from the whispers is understandable; Wermers has no such mitigating factor and would appear to be slightly behind.
I am hopeful that that is not the case and that the coaches are letting them develop slowly to help next year when, in all likelihood, we'll have a new starting QB. Similarly, our linebackers have been inconsistent, at best, and not particularly effective. Fitzgerald was a prized recruit, but is only playing on special teams. Any word on him or anyone else who may be redshirting?
Linebacker is going to be rough. Redshirt freshman Brandon Herron hasn't seen the field at all despite playing behind a motley crew and appears on his way to Brandon Logan "oh, yeah, that guy" territory. We saw Marell Evans briefly, and then not again. And two of the true freshmen linebackers are already gone. So, the only guy on the roster we'll see next year is Kenny Demens. Demens is a WLB, though, and Mouton appears to be turning into serviceable player, so he might have to wait a couple additional years before seeing playing time.
Everything relies on extensive improvement from the two starting sophomores and Fitzgerald panning out in a big way; Michigan has no margin for error here until the 2009 recruiting class is ready to play.
I've heard pretty good things about both Demens and Fitzgerald, FWIW.
Other than BooBoo, I cannot think of any freshman DB who can be counted on for high caliber help next year. Let's face it. This year is dismal. Id rather think about the future. While I'm hopeful that we'll continue to recruit well and bring in new talent, I wondering about some we already have. No one seems to be reporting on it.
Well, Brandon Smith and JT Floyd are both redshirting and may be of some assistance; also Michael Williams is working himself into some playing time and doing sort of okay.
In the aftermath of another 3rd and long -> disaster scenario, I'm wondering if Shafer has any proven track record against the pass. Does his scheme actually work, or does he just rely on pass rushing to cover up for a weak secondary? Although our safeties are obviously questionable, our cornerbacks should not be, and the pass defense seems porous at best. When Shafer was hired at Stanford, people assumed the major drop in pass defense was just due to an improved run defense, but could there be a systemic flaw here?
There is another possibility: Michigan's pass defense last year was overrated by the numbers. Opponent pass efficiency ratings in groups (I consider 60 to be bad despite being "average" because all BCS teams these days inflate their statistics in the nonconference schedule):
- The Good: Oregon (#42, but Dennis Dixon was #3 when healthy), Florida (#2)
- The Eh: Appalachian State (#6 but in I-AA), Purdue (#48), Michigan State (#44), Wisconsin (#40)
- The Bad: Penn State (#74), Northwestern (#66), EMU (#85), Illinois (#80), Minnesota (#76)
- The Horrific: ND (#113)
- The Not Applicable: Ohio State (#12)
(Ohio State, of course, got a small lead and entirely stopped passing, so their #12 is meaningless.) By my count here every common opponent to date save Wisconsin is better this year as all return quarterbacks or replace Anthony Morelli with Not Anthony Morelli; trading Dennis Dixon for Brian Johnson isn't that far off.
Meanwhile, at Michigan out went the two starting safeties. And how much of Michigan's tragic fall in pass efficiency defense is due to the near-total incompetence of their replacements? A hell of a lot. How much of that is the fault of the new staff? 10%.
I'm beginning to get as disillusioned with Scott Shafer as all the rest of you are, but it is way, way too early to draw any definitive conclusions.
However: yeah, Michigan's insistence on bringing an extra safety (or two!) on the field in nickel situations instead of a corner is mystifying, as is their inability to keep four DL on the field in that package. Michigan fans were told Shafer was a blitz-happy, man-to-man guy; this year we've gotten almost all zone coverage and a lot of three-man rushes. I don't get any of that.
Oh, God, did I just put Minnesota #13? Why do all the teams I put from 11-25 all die every week? Do I have to start considering a team (Virginia) that lost to Duke by 30 points?
Help me. Someone tell me what to do. This is probably my least favorite ballot ever.
10/25/2008 – Michigan 21, Michigan State 35 – 2-6, 1-3 Big Ten
Here's a tip for Windows users who suddenly find their computer freezes on bootup: instead of booting into safe mode and wasting a day running disk checks and searching Google for advice, just select "last known good configuration" and save yourself the trouble.
If only that worked for football teams.
It does not, so we're back with the same story again: mostly outplayed and totally outgained. The only reason it was even somewhat competitive was Michigan State's determination to waste their massive advantage in yardage, but even their essential Sparty-ness couldn't blow this one.
I was completely wrong in the preview, wherein I suggested Michigan would prove itself slightly better on a down-to-down basis and be done in by more critical errors, and I've now given up any semblance of hope the team is going to turn a corner this year. I figure they might beat Purdue since the Boilers look pretty awful; everything else looks like a stretch.
So, like, what should I do with the rest of this season? I don't have anything interesting to write about on Mondays, as you can tell, just another rehash of "Michigan is epically bad and they have just lost by many points." Game previews seem as pointless the last four games. UFRs… well, I guess I have to do those. But expending a ton of energy covering the last few games of a season that might end up 4-8 at best seems unproductive.
In fact, it's time to bring back Henri, the otter of ennui.
Henri's crushing existential dread pins him to ground. Mine makes me go play videogames. I put it to you: what should I do over the course of the next month?
- What does it take to get fired around these parts? This has been all over the place by now so you already know this, but the NCAA rulebook has a specific provision indicating that an airborne player who touches the pylon is out of bounds.
I was in the stadium so missed the analysis that followed the touchdown, but everyone was pretty sure that call was bogus from the get-go, and I privately wondered if this could possibly be the work of the infamous Jim Augustyne and, yes, it was.
Augustyne was the guy responsible for what's now the second-worst call in Big Ten history when he ruled that Chad Henne's incomplete forward pass was indeed a fumble and awarded Domata Peko a long touchdown on the return. (That call is second-worst because it was a missed opportunity to overturn the play; on this one Augustyne actually screwed up something called correctly on the field.) Both calls required a total ignorance of the rulebook anyone who's watched football for ten or so years would know.
Augustyne should be given a gold watch and told to stay away from replay booths. Can someone dig up gambling debts and maybe an arrest or two for domestic violence?
- Michigan's inability to run against State is the last straw as far as hope for the offensive line goes. They couldn't block the Big Ten's iffiest defensive line; there's no hope until next year.
- I really don't get Michigan's decision to keep Cissoko on the bench in favor of a third (bad) safety in the nickel package. Late in the game white receiver named White (we're from White!) lined up with Charles Stewart in man coverage; his out route was open by yards and yards. As I've mentioned before, I'm willing to accept the idea Scott Shafer is working with a really shaky back seven; I'm less willing to accept the wacky tactical decisions that clearly aren't working.
- Speaking of, the one time we go to a three man line on something approximating a running down was Ringer's 60 yard touchdown.
|WHAT||Michigan vs. Michigan State|
|WHERE||Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI|
|WHEN||3:30 EST, October 25th, 2008|
|THE LINE||Michigan State by 4.5*|
|TELEVISION||ABC Regional, mirrored on ESPN2|
Run Offense vs. State
While it lasted, Michigan's performance against Penn State was a thing to behold, but how much of that was the unexpected debut of a north-south MINOR RAGE offense and how much is replicable week-to-week? I don't presume to tell you.
State's defense, meanwhile, uh…
This is probably worse than it looks, as I haven't excised sacks in these numbers and a big chunk of Ohio State's carries were part of the effort to keep OSU's winning margin under 70. This an awful rush defense unless it's playing Notre Dame. I dunno about that, you figure it out.
Maybe Michigan's ground game has turned the corner? If so, we should expect at least 5 YPC given the numbers above. If not—if that was our one trick and once it's scouted that's all folks—and we descend back into the depths from whence we came, we lose. Michigan has to put up numbers like those above to be in this game. End of story.
I suppose I should venture some sort of guess about this, yes? Well… I don't think we'll touch the 6 YPC Cal and Indiana did but this is not something that happens to you by accident, and Michigan's rushing offense has been erratic but seems to have found something. I think they'll put up something like 200 yards, although that's a low confidence prediction.
Key Matchup: Brandon Minor's RAGE versus Michigan State linebackers. For the first time all year Michigan had a north-south running game and Minor repeatedly made yards after contact; Michigan lifted itself off the ground.
Pass Offense vs. State
As per usual, if Steven Threet doesn't play please mentally replace this section with "HEAD FOR THE HILLS! ONLY THE STRONG WILL SURVIVE!"
Threet, bad elbows and all, was 9 of 13 for 84 yards against Penn State in about a half of action. While this is not exactly Tom Brady we're talking about, he was again pretty good in a tough situation on the road. Nick Sheridan is going to be a legend in ten years, but the kind you tell at night with a flashlight under your chin.
As far as State goes, it's hard to find a reasonable comparable in the opponents. State currently stands at #27 in passer efficiency but has faced off with the heroic likes of Ricky Stanzi, whoever Indiana's backup quarterback is, and a freshman Terrelle Pryor. Actually, those guys suck, so maybe they are reasonable comparables. Pryor is left off because that game got so out of hand so quickly that his stats are meaningless.
State opponents of potential relevancy:
These numbers are actually pretty good outside of the Cal game, which Michigan is not going to replicate, though the interceptions may or may not be a fluke. One negative to State's numbers is a relative dearth of sacks. They're just 73rd.
At this point we know what to expect: short throws to the outside guys, wheel routes to Odoms when he finds himself singled up with safeties or linebackers, the occasional unsuccessful screen.
Key Matchup: Threet versus anything that takes him off the field. So: Ortmann versus stuff.
Run Defense vs. State
You know Javon Ringer, also known as "the entire Michigan State offense." He's out there killing his NFL career three yards at a time. It's kind of amazing then, that Ringer is second nationally in rushing yards and Michigan State is… 52nd?
Yeah, 52nd, and #51 (Maryland) has 100 fewer carries! In fact, if you order teams by YPC instead of raw yardage State falls to 78th at 3.86. One spot behind them? Michigan at 3.85. One rushing attack has seen local media fall all over it in a rush to praise it. I leave you to guess which one.
I have a ton of respect for Ringer, but wow… this is not a good rushing offense. Michigan's gotten shredded by a couple opponents this year, but Penn State is #6 in YPC and Illinois #32. Hell, Michigan held Illinois 0.7 YPC under their average. Wisconsin, which basically runs the same scheme and is currently flailing around at 0-4 in the Big Ten and basically handled by Michigan, is at #46.
Sometimes I come to a conclusion and think to myself "oh, hell, do I really have to think this?" and then it turns out I do. Here's one: one week after giving up like eight YPC to Penn State, I expect Michigan will hold Ringer's average down under 4. Ringer will still get like 30 carries and will have one of those Mike Hart-versus-Penn State days, but unless Dantonio throws some sort of curve this should be the best day from the Michigan defense since the last time they played a team of cavemen.
Key Matchup: Ezeh and Thompson reading pulling linemen and getting to the f*#$ing ball.
Pass Defense vs. State
Q: How do you acquire the nation's #72 pass efficiency rating when you run 60% of the time?
A: You suck.
Q: But not nearly as a bad as Michigan.
Right, Brian Hoyer was banged up and left the Michigan State-Ohio State game and there was a desultory cheer from those still in attendance. He is not particularly good. He is completing under 50% of his passes and has thrown six touchdowns to four interceptions.
Mark Dell is MSU's leading receiver with 24 catches, but not by much; freshman BJ Cunningham has 21 and Blair White 19. State goes to the pass as a play-action complement to Ringer and when they have to; long yardage situations are probably good.
Meanwhile, Michigan's secondary has been pretty much awful all year. The corners are making no plays; the obvious zone alignment has been incapable of covering guys; the linebackers are YAC machines. This is a battle of weaknesses, with one potential item that could swing it M's way: Graham and Jamison.
Key Matchup: Safeties reading play action probably. State's heavy focus on the run means they don't get a whole lot of pressure when they go play action—they've given up just seven sacks in eight games—and do get a lot of safeties sucking up into the play. Michigan safeties, meanwhile, have been… rough.
I definitely shouldn't have gone "eh" about special teams last week, as their implosion was a major factor in Michigan's implosion: kicks out of bounds, a blocked punt, horrible returns, etc. You know how dire the situation is.
The good news is that Michigan State's returns are nearly as dire. State is:
- 86th in net punting
- 98th in KO returns
- 31st in punt returns
The punt returns should be irrelevant; Zoltan has had under 25% of his punts returned and those have gone for 3.4 yards each as there are gunners on the opponent in a snap. So all that looks like a slight advantage Michigan assuming there are some punt exchanges.
One advantage for State: Brett Swenson is 15 of 16 on the year. Don't expect a lot of misses from him.
Key Matchup: Michigan return units versus their general awfulness. State's return units have given up some nice returns; Michigan has to field the ball and not, like, fumble the hell out of it.
- Anyone other than Threet takes a snap at quarterback.
- Anyone other than Threet takes a snap at quarterback.
- Anyone other than Threet takes a snap at quarterback.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Dave Molk gets his reach on.
- Johnson and Taylor look like they're going rack up big positive numbers.
- The turnover margin is in Michigan's favor.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for They Have Two Losses We Have Two Wins, –1 for Slight Possibility The Hockey Team Replaces Their Pads With Anthrax, -1 for Their Castle Appears Built On Sand, About Which More Later, –1 for We Shut Wisconsin Down, Basically, +1 for Did I Mention The Two Wins?, +1 for Distinct Possibility We See SHERIDAN=DEATH.
Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for A Win Would Direct The Criticism Thataway; +1 for Big Recruiting Weekend, Too, +1 for The Implosion On The Spartan Internets Would Be A Joy Forever, –1 for General Whatever When You're 2-5.)
Loss will cause me to... avoid a lot of links to stupid columns in the local papers.
Win will cause me to... laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
If you accept the premise that turnovers are really random, Michigan State isn't as good as their record and Michigan isn't as bad as theirs. Turnovers have been a bitch to Michigan and a god to State.
Check it: State is +5 in turnover margin a week after being –5 against Ohio State. In State's two games against tomato cans they were –1, leaving them +11 against the five teams on the schedule that were tossups to start the year. Or, in chart form:
This is how MSU is 3-1 in the Big Ten despite being outgained on a per-play basis in every game. Michigan, meanwhile, is 111th in turnover margin.
Of course, it's been hard to watch Michigan this year and conclude that turnovers are actually random. Michigan's turnovers are part bad luck and part epic suck; if you made me guess what the margin would be in this game I'd peg it at –1.
So, do I think a Michigan team with a –1 turnover margin and a 50 yard deficit in special teams can beat Michigan State? Well… I think so a lot more than I did before I started this preview. Honestly, if you compare the ground games Michigan State has been getting by on boring repetition and Michigan has been erratic but not flat awful. State's run defense, on the other hand… flat awful. And Michigan, again, has been erratic.
The passing games seem like washes. Both are infrequently deployed, poor, and as likely to result in disaster for the offense as for the defense. It'll be close, and I think Michigan will seem like the better team down-to-down; I also think they'll be done in by a couple enormous errors.
AND ONE MORE THING: Rick Comley has suspended two members of the hockey team for their role in the enormous fight that got a sophomore defenseman sent to the hospital. Mark Dantonio has suspended nobody, even though by now he must know all the particulars.
Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Minor outgains Ringer.
- Special teams continue to screw up in ways unfathomable.
- Michigan State, 24-20.