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Fee Fi Foe Film: Michigan State Offense
Previously: Michigan State Defense
not bad
Michigan State's offense is still looking to put it all together. Against Notre Dame, the Spartans gained 496 yards but acquired nearly half of them in garbage time, making the outcome look closer than it should've (sound familar?). They also committed two disastrous first-half turnovers, a pick-six by Brian Lewerke and a fumble by LJ Scott right before he crossed ND's goal line, that skewed the outcome in the other direction.
Then Iowa simply shut MSU down, holding them to 4.1 yards per play and 2.4 yards per non-sack carry. The Spartans managed to beat the Hawkeyes in large part because they won the turnover battle 2-0, but it wasn't pretty.
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
On the Michigan side, Chase Winovich has sustained his remarkable play long enough to earn a shield, and he should be in for a big day against MSU's young, skinny tackles.
On the MSU side, right guard David Beedle is questionable after missing last week's game with an undisclosed injury. True freshman Kevin Jarvis, who started last week against Iowa, would take his place if he can't give it a go. Either a banged-up guy who was a sore spot last year or an 18-year-old kid will have to block Maurice Hurst on occasion. That projects to go rather well for Michigan.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? It's a hybrid at this point, for whatever that means. State spends most of their time in the shotgun but will go to more manball-y I-form and heavy Ace formations. They'll bring out an extra OL—usually Chase Gianacokos—on occasion, and not just in short-yardage situations.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? State runs a relatively even mix of inside zone and power. Neither has proven effective. Most of MSU's best runs have been Lewerke keepers or scrambles.
Hurry it up or grind it out? While MSU is right about average in adjusted tempo, they feel slower than that—they usually huddle up and take their time at the line.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Notes From A Hockey Exhibition
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Michigan walloped a bad CIS team on Saturday, beating Western Ontario 10-1. The Mustangs were not a good team last year and seemingly came to Yost with less than a full complement of skaters; things did not improve with one injury and three ejections. But Michigan hockey has played a CIS punching bag annually and they haven't always looked like that. Since 2009-10, with tourney teams bolded:
- Michigan 6, Windsor 2, shots 33-16 M
- Michigan 4, Western Ontario 2, shots 39-29 M
- Ontario Tech 3, Michigan 2, shots 56-28 M
- Michigan 7, Windsor 3, shots 43-30 M
- Waterloo 2, Michigan 1, shots 35-22 M
- Michigan 5, Wilfred Laurier 2, shots 52-24 M
- Michigan 8, Toronto 1, shots 52-12 M
- Michigan 2, Windsor 0, shots 36-32 M
Beating up on Western Ontario doesn't mean Michigan Is Back, but the trend there is clear. All but one tourney team doubled up the opposition in shots; all but one team that missed was in a relatively competitive game, give or take the goaltending. Not clobbering Western Ontario would have been a real bad sign. Michigan avoided that.
GENERAL FEELINGSBALL
Feelingspuck? Doesn't sound right. Anyway: Michigan felt like a much-improved hockey team. Odd-man rushes, which happened seemingly three times a period during the last few years, were restricted to one early two-on-one and a breakaway when Quinn Hughes's stick broke. Meanwhile Michigan's breakout impressed with the diversity of approaches they took and their success at breaking the WO forecheck.
The forward corps is still short on talent, with two or three guys who would ideally be third-liners on the top two lines and a questionable bottom six. On the other hand, the return of Cutler Martin to defense—where I've always liked him—gives Michigan seven defensemen ranging from competent to excellent. Michigan has almost never had the kind of defensive depth they have this year, and with a more organized team supporting them and two good goalies backing them up Michigan could find success as a grind-it-out outfit that wins games 3-2 and 2-1.
Nobody wants Michigan hockey to look like that long term but beggars can't be choosers this year. If they get to the tournament, that's how.
[After THE JUMP: player-specific takes and a feel for the season.]
Opponent Watch 2017: Week 5
About Last Week:
Three and a half million Americans struggled to rebuild their lives, and for their very lives themselves, in the aftermath of one of the most devastating storms in recent memory. They did so again this week. They will do so again next week.
(Gerald Herbert/AP)
Sorry, I know this is supposed to be a humorous departure from the realities of the world. We’re here to laugh in the midst of so much yelling. I get that. But this is one of those moments. As of yesterday, 34 people were dead (with that number expected to rise substantially) and 95% of the island remains without power. Only 14 hospitals have power. For all the talk in the last few weeks about what the American flag means, these are people who rise and sleep beneath that flag, and who are trying to rise again.
It takes about 90 seconds to donate money to any of these groups:
No guilt, no cajoling. No one will be called out. It’s is your call. But as a special one-time offer, if you donate money to these groups RIGHT NOW, I promise to make fun of Rutgers every week.
The Road Ahead:
Michigan State (3-1, 1-0 B1G)
Last week: Beat Iowa, 17-10
Recap: Michigan State has matched their win total from last season. But their games aren’t much prettier.
Michigan State averaged less than 4.1 yards per play, and only 3.3 yards per play after their opening drive. On the bright side, they held Iowa to 3.8 yards per play. Neither team could run the ball for crap, with Akrum Wadley ay 1.8 YPC on 17 carries and Michigan State’s running backs at 1.7 YPC on 24 carries.
How dumb was this game? It featured a Full Tommy Rees:
(FWIW, if you ever find yourself wondering how far the Big Ten Network will limbo in the name of making the conference look as not-bad as possible, note that they labeled that video “Michigan State Forces the Turnover vs. Iowa,” as opposed to something more accurate like “Michigan State Stands Near Iowa While Iowa Re-enacts the Portion of Infomercial Where Regular Tasks Like Sitting in a Chair or Eating Soup Are Impossible”)
This team is as frightening as: A person who lives in your house and who has the same mother as you and the same father and you and who was born chronologically after you. I do not believe there is an exact English translation for this. Fear Level = 6
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State’s traditional running game is still somewhat of a disaster. LJ Scott is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, and he’s lost three bad fumbles. Madre London is at 3.2 YPC, and Gerald Holmes is at 3.9. None have a Highlight Yards Per Opportunity over 4.0, which is fancy speak for “bad.”
Michigan should worry about: Brian Lewerke is still second in the Big Ten in yards per carry (sack-adjusted) at 8.5 yards per carry. BIG TENNNNNN.
When they play Michigan: Michigan needs to acknowledge the importance of this game.
Ohio State is important, but Michigan State is the main rival for Michigan football, from @shawnwindsor https://t.co/0T72Dvd2jh
— GreenandWhite.com (@LSJGreenWhite) October 3, 2017
or not...
Quick look at the State News pic.twitter.com/57dQWeuHJM
— Mike Persak (@MikeDPersak) October 5, 2017
or...
isportsweb: Ohio State is now MSU's biggest rival http://t.co/dLCoDKFuph pic.twitter.com/o0xLvL4LNg
— Lansing StateJournal (@LSJNews) August 10, 2015
But... oh hell, JUST TELL US WHAT YOU WANT
Next game: at Michigan, 7:30 p.m., ABC (MSU +11)
[AFTER THE JUMP: it's... it's hard to explain]
Wednesday Presser 10-4-17: Brian Smith
[Fuller]
Pretty pleased with the progress of your group?
“Yeah, I’m pretty pleased with the progress so far. I think the guys have played well. Gotten off to a good start. Look forward to continuing that this week.”
What kind of a challenge do the MSU receivers pose to your guys?
“Well, they face a good challenge. They’re good, solid receivers. They’re young. Felton’s [Davis] coming off a big game against Iowa and he’s a threat down the field. He’s a tall guy so they can throw him the ball and he can come down and get it so he poses a problem and they’ll spread it around a good bit, so we’ve got our hands full.”
Do you sense a different energy in the building this week or is it business as usual?
“Obviously we had the extra week of practice last week and were focusing on getting better that week. Call it improvement week. We’ve had two weeks waiting for this game to come so everybody’s ready to go.”
[Hit THE JUMP for a bit on improving communication in the backfield]
Wednesday Presser 10-4-17: Greg Frey
[Fuller]
As far as preparation, you’ve been through Michigan State weeks before. Pretty similar?
“Yeah, you know, obviously it’s a rival game. They’re a great team, great program. You’re really focused on improving you as you go through the season so the best version of who we are shows up on Saturday. Guys have been focused and working hard.”
You look at Zach Gentry and how has he developed into a great tight end, what’s it like coaching him?
“Like anything else, you want to see players develop and attack his problems and then not only attack it but bottle up and continue to do the things he’s doing well. Zach’s been really focused, been working really hard, came off a very good summer, has started a way that we felt good and so we’re going to see how it goes the rest of the way and if he continues that journey.”
MGoQuestion: What stands out to you on film about Michigan State’s defensive line?
“Oh, very good. Active. There’s a mold to what they develop and what they do and these guys certainly fit. They’re strong inside, fast on the outside. It’s a tough, great scheme. Ranked very highly and so that stands out the most.”
Where did your tackles improve during the improvement week? What did you guys work on?
“Really the biggest thing as we went with the front, the offensive line and the tight ends, is continuing to identify potential issues. These are great coaches that we face week in and week out in the best football conference in America and so they dissect you. Whether it be a stance or leaning here or slow hands or whatever it may be and so what we try to do is identify some of those things and correct them, and if they don’t need to be corrected just continue doing them.
“But really just focusing on each individual and the role they play and how they do it and seeing if we can tweak something here, get a little more efficient there, maybe take a false step out, something like that and that’s what we’re looking for as we move through improvement week, watching film, getting ready for the game.”
[After THE JUMP: Growing Pains (non-sitcom edition)]
Fee Fi Foe Film: Michigan State Defense
QBs missing wide open bombs vs. MSU: still a thing
There are the numbers, and then there's the eye test. By the former, Michigan State's defense has had a remarkable bounceback from last year's disaster; they're 16th in defense S&P+, fourth in rushing success rate, and have avoided giving up the big passing plays that were so common last year.
By the latter, well, this still isn't a classic Mark Dantonio defense. I've caught at least parts of every MSU game this season; in each game, they've narrowly avoided getting hit over the top with multiple big pass plays. State is still trying to figure out who to start in the secondary. Depth is thin. Walk-ons are starting.
While this team does appear ahead of last year's squad, there are holes to exploit. I rewatched MSU's loss to Notre Dame and combed through last week's win over Iowa to prepare for this post.
Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
We used MSU's official depth chart, which held true for the first three games but should be taken with a grain of salt this week. Against Iowa, Demetrius Cooper started at SDE over Dillon Alexander, Justin Layne opened at field corner instead Josh Butler, and David Dowell took Matt Morrissey's place at free safety. MSU rotated quite a bit all around; true freshman Trey Person also got a series or two at free safety.
Base Set? 4-3 even. They'll stick with their base personnel in almost all situations. Iowa went empty a few times in this game, and while they did so with RBs and TEs on the field, that's usually what Michigan does too. MSU stayed with their base; in this screencap, the OLBs are lined up over the slots and a safety is head-up over one of the WRs to the near side:
This doesn't project to change against Michigan.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
2017 Week 5 CFB Recap
I… I think it’s time to talk about the SEC.
It’s not that good. It’s a shell of its former self.
Sure, it’s strong at the top, same as it ever was. Alabama is still a ruthless, inexorable death machine – churning whichever poor fools are unlucky enough to be in the path of its maw into mulch. This week, they vaporized Ole Miss: 66-3 may not erase the memories of their two losses to the Rebels in recent years, but that Bama gave them a worse whoopin’ than what they’d give an FCS sacrifice suggests they wanted some measure of payback. Does this Death Star have a problematic exhaust port? Maybe. Will any of their regular season opponents be able to find it? Almost definitely not.
Georgia is all alone in that second tier, and with an authoritative 41-0 beatdown of Tennessee in Knoxville, the Dawgs are clearly the best team in the East and should be able to take the division to set up a matchup with Bama in the SEC Title game. Quarterback Jake Fromm pulled a Wally Pipp on Jacob Eason and UGA has been content to play it very safe in the passing game: he threw it just 15 times for 84 yards – and ran for two surprising touchdowns. The Georgia running game was excellent as usual, churning out almost three hundred yards between a cast of talented backs. The offense is functional, if unspectacular, as Smart is content to have his defense win games.
What they did to Tennessee was remarkable – from the first play, an interception by Tyrique McGhee that set up a short field for a field goal, the Bulldog defense was dominant. Some of that surely is due to the general derpiness of the Tennessee offense, which has become even worse post-DeBord, but that alone can’t explain how they got shut out at home with a few talented skill position players. The Vols had seven first downs on the game, had four turnovers, 3.5 yards per pass attempt, 2.1 yards per carry, and zero points. The Bulldog defense was amazing against Mississippi State the week before, and should be similarly excellent against the rest of their regular season schedule.
Alabama is Alabama, Georgia is quickly becoming a store-brand Alabama knockoff, and most of the rest of the league is thoroughly mediocre at best. Who’s the third-best team? It’s probably Auburn: the Tigers acquitted themselves well in a road loss to a likely playoff team in Clemson and revved up the offense on Saturday against a team with a pulse, winning 49-10 against Mississippi State (the Bulldogs are now 1-2 in blowouts over the last three weeks).
[I try to back up my #hot #take after the JUMP]
MGoShirt Alert: Please Don’t Alert the Feds
The artists at UGP have been at work. We call this one “Ball don’t lie, but someone did”:
And this one is called “The Bracket Buster”:
You can trade money for these on the MGoStore, and peruse our complete line of State-beating, Ohio-hating, three-sinking, satellite camping, vitamin-taking, with cruelty winning, wall-building, Everitt ruling, potato-aspiring, ‘89 bandwagoning, always Mike-ing, State beating, Hart hearting, God willing, charge-taking shirts.
Hoops Hello: Colin Castleton
Michigan put the finishing touches on an excellent 2018 recruiting class this morning when four-star Daytona Beach (FL) Father Lopez big man Colin Castleton announced his commitment:
Castleton chose the Wolverines over Illinois after taking an official visit to Ann Arbor last weekend. While Michigan made a relatively late push for Castleton, the efforts of John Beilein and new assistant coach Luke Yaklich—who'd recruited Castleton at Illinois State—made a major impression, per Sam Webb. Beilein's no-nonsense approach ultimately won Castleton over:
“It’s kind of like DeLand times 15 or 20,” said Castleton, who averaged 23.3 points, 11 rebounds and 5.4 blocks per game as a junior. “I liked the feel, the culture and the coaching staff. Coach Beilein doesn’t lie; he’s straightforward. He didn’t promise me any playing time or anything like that, but the players are all great.”
Castleton is the fifth commit in the class, which now boasts four composite four-stars and ranks second(!) in the team rankings.
GURU RATINGS
| Scout | Rivals | ESPN | 247 | 247 Comp |
|
4*, #20 PF, #70 Ovr |
4* PF, #120 Ovr |
NR |
3*, 89, #35 PF, #139 Ovr |
4*, #30 PF, #117 Ovr |
While there's a difference in star rating, Rivals and 247 both have Castleton a little ways outside their top 100, while Scout is more optimistic, placing him at #70 overall. ESPN continues to be useless; Castleton, a composite four-star with several high-major offers, isn't in their database, and they still list Taylor Currie as a 2018 commit. They did just get around to putting up a page for Adrien Nunez, so hopefully they'll add Castleton soon.
Castleton is listed at 6'10", 215 pounds by Scout and 247 and 6'11", 220 by Rivals. Much like Moe Wagner, he projects as an NBA power forward who'll play center in college:
Colin Castleton is 6-11, 215 pounds. I asked him what position he'll play at Michigan ... pic.twitter.com/OgzqrjXdss
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) October 4, 2017
Castleton certainly has the requisite length, and as you'll see he could develop into an impact defender.
[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and more.]
Exit Nate Johnson
[Bryan Fuller]
Sam Webb reported this morning that redshirt freshman cornerback Nate Johnson has been permanently dismissed from the program:
As I just reported on @michiganinsider, soph CB Nate Johnson was dismissed from the football team yesterday. It is permanent.
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) October 4, 2017
Jim Harbaugh wasted little time taking action after Johnson was arrested early Saturday morning for an alleged assault of a woman he'd been dating. Johnson was arraigned on Sunday on one count of misdemeanor domestic violence.
Johnson came to Michigan in the 2016 class as a slot receiver, then moved to cornerback in the offseason; he featured as a punt returner in the spring game but ceded that job to Donovan Peoples-Jones in the fall. He hadn't seen significant snaps this season on defense.
