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Spring Football Bits: Huggier Harbaugh Edition
Spring the 4th: a little different than Spring the 1st. [photo: Eric Upchurch]
As fans of Kansas, Villanova, and Loyola-Chicago have informed me, Michigan is the only Final Four team that fields an FBS football program, let alone a hockey program, putting us in the unique position of reading tea leaves and entrails from spring practice at the same time that two real life championships are a pair of actual real life games away.
--------THIS IS YOUR FRIENDLY MGOBLOG REMINDER THAT YOU DO IN FACT NEED TO BREATHE IN ORDER TO SURVIVE AND SHOULD PROBABLY DO SO NOW--------
The general form of this annual exercise is the fans go in hoping to hear certain things, and then pressers, videos and the odd practice insiders confirm, ignore, or dodge them with miniscule data. So I’m trying this in a new, more spring-reflective format.
New Harbaugh:
What we want to hear: Depends if you’re a Patton guy or an Eisenhower guy.
What we’ve heard: Harbaugh’s gone Eisenhower.
The players have noticed a change in their coach in large part because he sought input from them after the bowl game that capped an 8-5 season. He held a team meeting in January after the bowl game, and they shared their feelings.
“We had a sour taste in our mouth,” Higdon said. “I did, he did, everybody in this facility. He was open, (saying) ‘What do we need to do? What can I do?’ How often do you see that from a coach, asking his players? That’s stronger than anything.”
What it means: We’re picking through pabulum here. There was a sense coming from outside Schembechler Hall that Harbaugh was doing more face guy/program ambassador work, but he does all those things in the time that he’s literally not allowed to spend with his players. From the players’ responses though it does seem he’s been less aloof.
What it probably means is the coaching staff is taking last year’s failings seriously, and they’re trying to emphasize to the fans that they’re doing so.
Also Jim’s going to be a grandpa soon.
----------------------
[After THE JUMP: Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the defense sounds way more optimistic than the offense]
--------ALSO THIS IS ANOTHER FRIENDLY REMINDER THAT YOUR BLOOD DOES NEED OXYGEN AND YOU SHOULD PUT SOME OF THAT IN YOUR LUNGS RIGHT NOW--------
Death From Wherever
SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is once again sponsoring our NCAA Tournament coverage this year, and once again that is going rather well. I'm not saying Michigan's second run to the FINAL FOUR is due to this great partnership of sports blog and home-financing expert; I'm not saying it isn't, either. I certainly don't want to test this theory. If you're looking at buying a house this spring/summer you should talk to him soon.
ICYMI. Tuesday's mailbag covered Moe Wagner's impact on opponent strategy, the John Beilein inbounding myth, and an interesting hypothetical about Beilein as an NBA coach. Wednesday's covered Loyola matchups, small ball, Jon Teske, and why Z keeps getting robbed (off the court). Brian posted the Loyola Chicago preview yesterday.
Up, then down, then very up. [Patrick Barron]
I was going to write another mailbag today but I'm past the point of rational thought. I should've seen this coming. This team, all season, has bucked expectation seemingly every time they settled into a pattern.
Heading into the season, this was going to be Moe Wagner's team. Or maybe Jaaron Simmons' if his MAC stardom translated, which we quickly learned did not. Perhaps Charles Matthews would fulfill his obvious potential and run the show, which appeared to be the case in November. Then he reverted to Turnover Matthews, the player we belatedly learned had been present for much of his mandated redshirt year, and we hoped he'd give up on being the centerpiece. He did, until the team needed a hard-driving centerpiece in the NCAA Tournament and he won West Region MVP.
Zavier Simpson started the first four games before coming off the bench in favor of Eli Brooks for the next 12. I wrote this on December 6th when exploring potential season outcomes:
For as good as Darius Morris was a sophomore, he simply wasn't ready for a starter's role as a freshman. Despite major differences in stature, Morris's statistical profile wasn't too different from Zavier Simpson's: very low usage, higher turnover rate than assist rate, awful outside shooting. (I know Simpson has shot okay from three this year but opponents are leaving him all alone out there and it's killing spacing.) Morris needed a full year before he was ready to run an efficient offense; if this year's PGs need a similar timetable, Michigan is probably missing the tournament.
I concluded that Brooks would do enough to help the Wolverines make the tourney as a bubble team. My personal Zavier Simpson mea culpa tour started eight days later.
The core. [Barron]
Duncan Robinson, a senior captain, had his starting job taken by a younger player for the second consecutive season, this time while mired in a shockingly uncharacteristic shooting funk. He continued to be a liability on defense until, suddenly, he no longer was that at all, through some combination of dogged work paying off and Luke Yaklich's tactical wizardry. While he stayed out of the starting lineup, he's one of the best five with commensurate playing time, and the team is evidently unbeatable when he scores six or more points.
The other returning senior, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, looked like the effective role player he'd pretty much always been for much of the year. When Michigan needed someone to grab control as Matthews struggled, however, he took the wheel.
Rolling with it. [Barron]
Talented freshmen Isaiah Livers and Jordan Poole had to deal with the considerable learning curve of John Beilein's system plus a newfound emphasis on defensive fundamentals that'd make it much harder for the average freshman to make a quick impact. Both marinated for a while before the blowout loss at North Carolina provided them with extended minutes against real competition. They settled into roles; those roles changed; they adapted, often by the day. Poole went from playing season-saving microwave against Houston to two statless minutes against Florida State.
Jon Teske earned the nickname "Big Sleep" as a freshman in large part due to how completely out-to-lunch he looked on the court. Some offseason chatter had him losing ground to a different big, Austin "Big Country" Davis, who'd redshirted behind Teske last year. Teske held off Davis and had a strong start to the season, using his size to overwhelm lesser opponents, before his production faded when conference play began in earnest. Sometime around Valentine's Day, "Big Nasty" awoke, and this big guy screams at Isaac Haas after dunking in his grill.
Hello, Big Nasty. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
The last time Michigan made it here, the circumstances could hardly have been more different. While the 2012-13 team had lost Stu Douglass and Zack Novak from the starting lineup, every other contributor returned save Evan Smotrycz. The team had a clear leader in Trey Burke, a clear second option in Tim Hardaway Jr., an experienced big man in Jordan Morgan, and a group of prodigious freshmen that quickly settled into well-defined roles. The only significant change in how the team functioned throughout the season was Mitch McGary's postseason breakout, which wasn't too difficult to see coming.
This team isn't like that, not one bit. They play great defense no matter who is on the floor and squeeze enough offense out of their collection of misfit toys to grind out wins. Occasionally it all comes together and they blow a team to bits; more often, it's a matter of waiting to see how the game will dictate which player ultimately takes the lead. Not many teams make it this far in such fashion. For your college-to-pro comparison, you don't need to look far: hello, 2003-04 Detroit Pistons.
Will it end the same way? We'll see. Which player will take the lead? Who knows. Will it matter? I have no idea.
Neither does John Beilein, I'm guessing, but he has a much better plan of how to handle that. If you need me, I'll be curled up in a ball of anticipation.
Unverified Voracity Does Not Mention Any Nuns
Let's all sit quietly and think about the near future. SOUNDS GOOD GUYS NOBODY'S EXPLODING KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK
OH NO
A HYPE VIDEO
SEVERAL OF YOU HAVE NOW EXPLODED MY BAD SPONGEBOB MEME?
"you can attack their bigs" [Patrick Barron]
A much better anon coach quote article. Yahoo's was extremely silly, but ESPN's version is on point. On Michigan:
"They've got three really good on-ball defenders," one coach said. "Most teams don't have two, or even one. They have three. [Zavier] Simpson, [Muhammad-Ali] Abdur-Rahkman, [Charles] Matthews can really guard the ball. You don't have a matchup on the perimeter you can attack. They're handsy, they're physical in all the right ways. How handsy and chippy they are, in itself is very anti-Michigan-like. They're well-schooled. They're so good at putting their hands on or getting an armbar into you and then taking it off, then beating you to the spot." …
"If you're a traditional defensive team, you've got no chance of guarding them," one opposing coach said. "The teams that have slowed them down the most are teams that are nontraditional, that can switch a lot. You've got no chance of defending them if you don't switch ball screens."
Dollar says the latter quote there is from Matt Painter.
On Loyola:
"Everybody on their team is an above-average passer and can shoot it, so they have spacing," another head coach in the league said. "They don't take bad shots. They really work together as a team to get great shots every possession. They have an inside presence, but most of their offensive attack is transition or through spacing. Offensively, that's what makes them really good." …
"They ice ball screens and try to keep Krutwig in the paint defensively," he said. "So they've got some real tough decisions to make. You can't keep Krutwig in the paint against Wagner, so how they guard those actions, the pick-and-rolls in the middle of the floor. They can bring [Aundre] Jackson off the bench, but they need Krutwig on the floor. That's a real interesting thing for me."
Much more that's interesting at the link.
Yak's got this. Of all the reasons hiring Luke Yaklich might have benefited Michigan, "he'll have lots of experience against the MVC team Michigan sees in the Final Four" is the least likely. And yet:
Prior to joining the Wolverines, the defensive maestro went 7-1 against the Ramblers in his four seasons spent at Illinois State as an assistant coach and is familiar, at least fundamentally, with coach Porter Moser’s style of play.
“Coach Moser is an unbelievable coach ... you have to be locked in on both ends of the floor,” Yaklich said. “It’s gonna be a dog fight. His teams reflect his personality. They’re prepared, they get better, tough and they have a bunch of really great kids that have been through the Missouri Valley and non-conference wars.
“Loyola is obviously gonna have our full attention all week, and we’re thrilled with the opportunity to play in the Final Four against a really good and well-coached team.”
If Michigan wins on Saturday, before the final they need to hire an assistant from a team they can beat easily. How about Dane Fife?
One and done done? Syracuse recruit Darius Bazley has decided to blow off college hoops in favor of a year in the G league, because he's a serious dude.
“I’m self-motivated because I know this is what I want to do for the rest of my life. This is how I want to make a living. This is how I want to provide for my family, and provide for my love of basketball. I’m not playing any games with this. I’m attacking this straight forward. I’m not maneuvering around this, take any side steps. I’m taking this head on. This is the decision that I made, and I know it will work. I know what I’m capable of doing, and I’m going to do just that.”
Fair enough. Is this THE END for the current regime in college basketball? Maybe, maybe not. Bazley's salary in his sole G League year is apparently going to be a comically low 26k, and while he can sign with an agent and get some shoe money he'd probably be better off in the long run with the fame an NCAA tournament run could generate. And it's not like the shoe people can't just give his family money already.
On the other hand:
I think trying the G-League out instead of college makes sense for a whole host of reasons, but using it to avoid playing for Syracuse might be the most important thing for Darius Bazley's development as a prospect
— Nainan-ch Nails (@thom_not_tom) March 29, 2018
Bazley won't be wasting his time perfecting a defense that's illegal in the NBA and driving wildly into the lane hoping that this heavily contested shot miraculously falls. Why Bazley—or anyone cough cough Tyus Battle—with a potential NBA future would sign up for that remains a complete mystery. How a team stacked with NBA lottery picks could lose to that team is an even greater one.
PREPARE THE NELSON MEME. Oh and also this:
Jim Boeheim to @PeteThamel on the prospect of college vs. the G-League just a couple weeks back. Interesting in the wake of the Darius Bazley decision https://t.co/BKeGJYOQ7i pic.twitter.com/OVTHMqWpDW
— Brent Axe (@BrentAxeMedia) March 30, 2018
Or possibly the Sideshow Bob Steps On Rakes meme.
Would the end of one and done be bad for Michigan? Or good? I lean towards good. While the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world would start picking off guys outside the top 25 and might land on a guy that Michigan would otherwise get, the relative gap between those dudes and the dozen-or-so genetic lottery winners available annually is bigger than the 25-50 cohort and the next tier down.
Meanwhile the shoe money that funnels kids towards that restrictive list of bluebloods would now just be signing the top guys outright. The guys at the next level down would be choosing lower levels of bag if they eschew being developed by Beilein. I don't think it would upset the apple cart in college basketball that much; it would kill accidental superteams like "Anthony Davis and four other guys." Since Michigan was never going to get that guy, good.
PFF on Mo Hurst. They like him.
Why the @PFF crew thinks Maurice Hurst—not Bradley Chubb, Minkah Fitzpatrick or Roquan Smith—is the best defensive prospect in this year's draft class https://t.co/EIVWRLpjrS pic.twitter.com/JkawbNaVQr
— The MMQB (@theMMQB) March 30, 2018
They like him almost as much as I do.
Mid-majors: yes. 8-10 P5 teams: no. Rodger Sherman on the dwindling role of the underdog mid-major:
Twenty years ago, in 1998, the committee gave out at-large bids to Western Michigan (from the Mid-American Conference) and Illinois-Chicago and Detroit-Mercy (from the Midwestern Collegiate Conference, now called the Horizon League). When George Mason stunned the world by reaching the Final Four as a no. 11 seed in 2006, it did so thanks to an at-large bid, having failed to win the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. Same goes for 11th-seeded VCU in 2011, also an also-ran from the CAA. Between 1995 and 2005, UNC Charlotte made the tournament eight times despite winning the Conference USA tournament only twice. UNC Charlotte got six at-large bids in a span of 10 years!
If you’ll allow me to temporarily use a clumsy definition of “mid-major” for the purposes of this piece, let’s say the “mid-major” label applies any school that isn’t in one of the five football power conferences, their predecessors, or either the defunct or current versions of the Big East. In the 20 NCAA tournaments from 1995 to 2014, the selection committee extended at-large bids to an average of 8.9 schools fitting that definition, the high being 12 in 1995, 1998, and 2004. In half of those years at least 10 such teams landed at-large invitations. Since 2015, the committee has invited no more than seven such teams in a given year, bottoming out with last year’s four. You’d think this trend would be reversed, considering over that time frame the number of at-large bids has increased from 32 to 36 as the size of the tournament field has grown from 64 to 68. But no: With more available spots, the committee has rewarded fewer teams from mid-major leagues.
The NCAA should mandate no at large bids for a team that couldn't even win half its conference games. Only one good thing has ever happened because an 8-10 ACC team got in.
Lame. Michigan cancels the 2020-21 VT series, paying 400k to get out of it. In VT's place in 2020: Arkansas State. Something something it's smart because playoff, you say. And I say something something it's dumb because playoff, and we both have exactly the same amount of evidence.
Poole on JJJ. Jordan Poole and Jaren Jackson Jr played together at La Lumiere last year, and Poole thinks he knows that Jackson's out the door:
"I'm pretty sure I already know what his decision is," said Poole.
So, will the 19-year-old Jackson turn pro?
"For sure, I definitely think so, only because it’s an opportunity that not a lot of people are able to pass up. Being able to be in a situation like this, especially being in the lottery as a freshman and getting paid to play basketball, (which) is a dream, that’s definitely an opportunity that you have to take advantage of," Poole said.
You'd think this obvious since he's a top five pick who played fewer minutes in an NCAA tournament elimination than Ben Carter, but MSU people are putting it out there that Jackson is leaning towards returning. Izzo getting a lottery pick to return for more rebounding drills in football pads is almost as baffling as "anyone plays for Syracuse."
Etc.: How Villanova became VILLANOVA. KRACH tourney odds. Beilein, post-crash. Amateurism and Loyola. Title IX is no barrier to ending amateurism.
Spring Practice Presser 3-29-18: Jay Harbaugh
[Bryan Fuller]
[Ed. A- Thank you once again to 247’s Isaiah Hole for getting me video so I can still transcribe even when doctors’ appointments keep me from being there]
“Alright, what’s up?”
Four practices in. How would you characterize the start of spring practice?
“Lot of energy. Improving on the execution from where we started to where we’re trying to get to. Every practice has been better, but I think the guys are really taking to it well and really competing with the defense at a high level.”
What have you seen from Karan [Higdon] and Chris [Evans] specifically?
“Doing a great job. Just exactly what you’d expect from them. They’re taking all the parts of their game that needed detail or polish and they’re doing that. Every day it’s one less mistake and really turning in a great spring thus far.”
Could you elaborate on some of those parts of their game?
“The rare double question. Protection-wise, they’re both improving. Route detail in terms of the top routes, details that typically running backs don’t get to just because they don’t have the time. Those guys are exceptional athletes and as we work them in empty packages and coming out of the backfield, they can handle a lot of detail in their technique like a receiver would, so continuing to hone those skills has been nice to see.”
You mentioned that they’ve gotten better at pass protection. How have they evolved since you took over the position in pass protection?
“They’re both super tough. Just getting them to play with the technique that we’re looking for and it’s really, from right now to like if you compared it to last spring it’s significantly better, and even these four practices have been incrementally better.”
[After THE JUMP: the punctilious pursuit of pass protection perfect, Ben Mason two-way murderball comin’, and an offense as a living organism]
WTKA Roundtable 3/29/2018: Return of the Mid-Range Assassins
Things discussed:
- Sam is on a plane to San Antonio and Ed is not here so we’ve got Ira, Brian, and Craig today.
- People should be nicer to Craig on our message boards.
- Texas A&M: Show me two guys on the floor who can’t shoot and I’ll show you a Beilein win. Their zone didn’t matter because Michigan was hitting their shots, even if they weren’t as good of looks.
- Nobody practices midrange twos anymore—back when Craig was playing routinely day everyone liked that shot—Moses was 80% from that spot.
- Will see Michigan State play some 2-3 next year we bet. JJJ is 80% to come back via people in Lansing.
- In the past when Michigan didn’t shoot well they just lost—being able to win these types of games is. Mindblowing stat: Michigan is 7-3 this year shooting under 1 PPP when historically they were 12-84.
- Impressive that FSU didn’t get any transition points until that missed goaltend/awful call on Moe.
- The story of Yacklich: guy wanted to stay a high school teacher!
- Only elite defending PG you can put with Z in Michigan’s history with Z is Gary Grant. Yacklich has some weirdly defensive guys for Michigan: Z, Matthews.
- The recruitment of Z and Winston: Z’s dad got frustrated with being State’s 2nd fiddle.
- Leonard Hamilton and that relaxing 10 seconds. Two or three open looks all game! Their 7’4 guy only played 7 minutes?
- Those coaches comments were pretty salty.
- Loyola-Chicago: MVC Purdue. No rise-up shooters so their threes have to be assisted, but they can get efficient midrange shots to go regularly. Been winning games close. Will stretch Michigan’s defense.
- If they get to the championship: Villanova terrifies us. Brunson postups might be Zavier Simpson kryptonite. Like a super Michigan. Much rather play Kansas: more of a Purdue with a true 7 footer who gets in foul trouble.
- Frozen Four: Mel playing with house money. Very due for one of these Ohio State games when Michigan’s been winning 5-on-5 by a big margin. Hockey is plinko is the crux of the argument against this tournament format—Michigan got some luck against BU.
- When Quinn Hughes is off the ice you’re asking when does Quinn Hughes go back on the ice? Nice that they’re no longer on top of basketball.
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Podbean.
Segment two is here. Segment three is here.
THE USUAL LINKS
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music?
Ben Carter’s gone so Jackson should have a chance to get starter’s minutes now.
Hoops Preview: Loyola-Chicago, Final Four
SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is sponsoring our tourney coverage. If you need a home loan, you should probably get it from a guy whose Ted Valentine impression is just as thunderously sarcastic as yours. Matt will get you a good loan, fast. And call you for a charge while doing it. Unless it is actually a block.
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #7 Michigan (32-7) vs #30 Loyola-Chicago (32-5) |
---|---|
WHERE | Alamodome San Antonio, TX |
WHEN | 6:09 PM Saturday |
LINE | Michigan –5 (KenPom) |
TV | TBS |
yes, you can purchase a Sister Jean bobblehead
THE US
Well, here we are. Again. Michigan rolls into the Final Four as the most fearsome defense left in the tourney by some distance. They can't shoot straight anymore, but it hasn't really mattered. Moe Wagner has had three off games, and it hasn't really mattered. The front end of a one and one is a turnover, and it hasn't really mattered.
It'll matter this weekend. Michigan has a shot at the national title. It'll either be a poor one if it's the first weekend; it'll be an outstanding one of it's Texas A&M. Here we go.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 13 | Clayton Custer | Jr. | 6'1, 185 | 86* | 21 | 117 | No | |||||||||||
58/47 from floor, excellent at 2PJs. Main assist guy but 5:4 A:TO is bleah. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 14 | Ben Richardson | Sr. | 6'3, 195 | 81 | 14 | 111 | No | |||||||||||
Low usage combo is 39% from deep and has 1:1 A:TO. Barely shoots inside line. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 5 | Marques Townes | Jr. | 6'4, 210 | 71 | 22 | 106 | No | |||||||||||
Slasher a rarity on the roster w 60% of shots at rim. 40% on limited threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 0 | Donte Ingram | Sr. | 6'6 215 | 71 | 19 | 106 | No | |||||||||||
40% from 3 on 184 attempts, does fair amount of work inside line. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 25 | Cameron Krutwig | Fr. | 6'9, 260 | 52 | 23 | 120 | Very | |||||||||||
Beefy dude with mad YMCA game. Post-up only. Not a rim protector. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 21 | Aundre Jackson | Sr. | 6'5, 230 | 48 | 28 | 108 | No | |||||||||||
Undersized backup 5 does a lot of posting up vs MVC. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 12 | Lucas Williamson | Fr. | 6'4", 190 | 47 | 13 | 110 | No | |||||||||||
Does some inside work vs MVC, in this game projects as 43% Just A Shooter | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 2 | Bruno Skokna | So. | 6'1, 195 | 16 | 15 | 111 | No | |||||||||||
Also a guy likely to be relegated to standing around perimeter; 36% from 3. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 2 | Cameron Satterwhite | Fr. | 6'4, 175 | 11 | 15 | 102 | Yes | |||||||||||
Fringe guy who might get a few minutes if there's foul trouble. |
*[last five games minutes from Kenpom.]
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
This Week’s Obsession: Alpaca Teams Outta Nowhere
I admit I didn’t imagine flautists in late March either. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]
THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: It’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. He’s a guy who thinks long term, and like Beilein has an incredible ability to turn areas of weakness into strength, except like in long term financial security terms. If you have questions about how you’re doing with all that stuff, let Nick know.
Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.
-------------------------------
The Question:
Most surprising team to make a championship run, or most surprising player to be really good.
Brian: Cato June.
Ace: Stevie Brown.
Brian: Brown was pretty good as a senior as a proto-viper.
Seth: Ryan Mundy if we're going there.
Ace: All the safeties! Anyway, this basketball team is rather surprising, too.
Brian: I swear to god I will turn this post around and go home right now.
Seth: Brandent Englemon! Charles Drake! Jon Shaw! Willis Barring...I'm sorry what were we talking about?
Brian: I hate us.
Ace: SO, ZAVIER SIMPSON.
Seth: He could play safety.
BiSB: Has a certain Ray Vinopal quality to him.
Seth: They really did ask Don Brown this week if he'd take Z on defense and for a second his eyes lit up like "nickel..?"
Brian: Yeah, I don't think this team is as out there as some other contenders.
Ace: They’re pretty out there! This is a Beilein team that can’t really shoot that well.
The Mathlete: We literally wondered if they were a tournament caliber team during a potential championship season.
Ace: Midway through!
Brian: I mean, it's a weird configuration for a good team but I think that after the UCLA and Texas games the worst we thought was "second round exit," which... uh...
Ace: I’m on the optimistic side of Beilein hoops always and I was so damn worried about RPI.
Brian:
[After THE JUMP: Other things that went very differently than you thought this basketball season would go after Maui.]
CBSSports Names John Beilein National Coach of the Year
Beilein at yesterday's Final Four sendoff. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
In what is hopefully the first of many such honors, CBSSports has bestowed John Beilein with their national coach of the year award:
Michigan's last loss was Feb. 6, two days after the Super Bowl. The Wolverines have won 13 in a row, and Beilein is going to his first Final Four since his team lost to Louisville in the 2013 title game. And they're doing it on defense -- despite Beilein's longstanding reputation as an offensive guru, this team is building its reputation on one of the nation's best defenses. That's the reason why the 65-year-old Beilein, one of the most respected coaches in the game, is CBSSports.com's Coach of the Year.
There's one more thing that makes it special that Beilein is our national coach of the year. This season of college basketball has been shadowed by the FBI scandal that broke in September. Yet here is Beilein at the end of the season, still winning despite his reputation -- among peers -- as the cleanest high-major coach in the country. To be sure, Beilein won this award because his team vastly exceeded its expectations in making a Final Four run. But it's pretty sweet, during a dark college basketball season like this one, to be able to award a coach who is respected for things other than winning. -- Reid Forgrave
Same, Reid Forgrave. Same.
Beilein, quite notably, not only accomplished this without anyone on the first- or second-team All-American list, he did it while facing two such players: OSU's Keita Bates-Diop and (grins) MSU's Miles Bridges.
The NCAA Tournament Is Close Enough
[Patrick Barron]
From time to time you'll see an assertion that the NCAA basketball tournament is a bad way to determine a champion, because it's single elimination, not particularly fair, and doesn't really prove who the best team is. The Ken Pomeroy:
I feel like the best argument would be, "makes bracket contests more difficult", which isn't a case the NCAA can make. I feel like the second-best argument is, "this is an insane way to determine a champion anyway, so why bother making it more fair?"
— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 22, 2018
He's in the middle of arguing for a re-seed after the first weekend, FWIW.
I bring it up because I think the tournament actually does a good job. The point of playoffs is to spit out a worthy champion, and college basketball almost always does. My favorite method to judge championship-worthy teams is a score-blind strength of record ranking. SOR is an attempt to calculate which team accomplished the most over the course of the season, and that seems like the best way to pick a champion. ESPN's version of that stat goes back to 2008. Final Fours since:
YEAR | #1 | #2 | semi | semi |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | #1 UNC | #3 Gonzaga | #24 South Carolina | #9 Oregon |
2016 | #3 Nova | #2 UNC | #5 Oklahoma | #30 Syracuse |
2015 | #3 Duke | #2 Wisconsin | #1 Kentucky | #13 MSU |
2014 | #8 UConn | #10 Kentucky | #1 Florida | #3 Wisconsin |
2013 | #1 Louisville | #2 Michigan | #9 Syracuse | #17 Wichita State |
2012 | #1 Kentucky | #3 Kansas | #9 Louisville | #4 OSU |
2011 | #3 UConn | #30 Butler | #7 Kentucky | #46 VCU |
2010 | #1 Duke | #7 Butler | #4 WVU | #12 MSU |
2009 | #1 UNC | #4 MSU | #2 UConn | #7 Nova |
2008 | #2 Kansas | #3 Memphis | #1 UNC | #4 UCLA |
Only one champion in ten years finished the season ranked worse than #3, and surely there's enough wobble in any stat to declare that good enough. Only four times has a team ranked outside the top 4 even reached the title game, and the lone winner from the depths still finished 8th.
Unless Loyola pulls an upset on Saturday, this will continue: Villanova, Kansas, and Michigan are 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Loyola is 21st.
This situation does not hold for college hockey, by the way. Despite having far fewer competitive programs—about 40—KRACH ranked 2015 champion Providence 16th, 2013 champion Yale 13th, 2011 champ Minnesota-Duluth 7th, 2008 champ BC 10th, and 2007 champ MSU 12th. It's little better than a coin flip between a team that can claim to legitimately have had the best season and some rando that just squeezed in. That's why this space rails against that single-elimination tourney while being sanguine about basketball's.
Hoops Mailbag: Loyola Matchups, Small Ball Possibility, Z Robbed Again
SPONSOR NOTE. HomeSure Lending is once again sponsoring our NCAA Tournament coverage this year, and once again that is going rather well. I'm not saying Michigan's second run to the FINAL FOUR is due to this great partnership of sports blog and home-financing expert; I'm not saying it isn't, either. I certainly don't want to test this theory. If you're looking at buying a house this spring/summer you should talk to him soon.
ICYMI. It's time for yet another two three-part mailbag. Yesterday's covered Moe Wagner's impact on opponent strategy, the John Beilein inbounding myth, and an interesting hypothetical about Beilein as an NBA coach. If you haven't submitted a question yet, I may have room for one or two more: you can tag them with #mgomailbag on twitter or email me.
To Small Ball Or Not To Small Ball
Could Isaiah Livers hold up at center? [Patrick Barron]
Given how lost Livers looked at the 5 on Saturday, who is the best option to play there if Michigan is forced to go small vs. Loyola? #mgomailbag
— Rob Rogacki (@BYBRob) March 26, 2018
Let's start with some background here. Loyola starts a traditional center—6'9", 260-pound Cameron Krutwig—who plays about half of their minutes; when Krutwig leaves the court, they don't field a player taller than 6'6". Meanwhile, FSU went small for much of the second half against Michigan, and an attempted response by John Beilein with Isaiah Livers at center didn't go well. Livers looked lost and M got outscored 8-3 by FSU in that stretch despite getting an extra possession, failing to make a shot from the field.
There's a chance Duncan Robinson could function much better at center. He's well-versed in the system on both ends to the point that he probably knows the center's assignments better than Livers, he's defended well in the post, and he's been utilized in the offense as a screener with some frequency of late. The worry is a small-ball team would expose his sub-par perimeter defense. I think Robinson could match up well with 6'5", 230-pound forward Aundre Jackson, and in that case Michigan may very well want to go small along with Loyola—a Michigan Lineup of Death with Robinson at center is certainly intriguing in the right circumstances.
That said, Beilein may also choose to flip that mismatch the other way. Loyola's offense hasn't been effective without Krutwig, plummeting from 1.21 points per possession when he's on the court to 0.96 PPP when he's off during the NCAA Tournament, according to Hoop Lens. Their defense has also suffered, allowing 1.08 PPP when he's off versus 0.93 PPP when he's on because they can no longer stop anyone inside the arc—their 2-point percentage allowed balloons from 45.6% to 56.5%.
I have serious questions about Krutwig's ability to handle Michigan's five-out offense; he's not nearly the caliber of athlete as FSU's big men nor is he close to their level as a shot-blocker. Either way, Loyola is going to go small at times. I believe it may be in Michigan's best interest to keep playing their normal rotation unless they discover a true Lineup of Death during practice this week.
[Hit THE JUMP for Teske's potential role and Z getting robbed again.]