Let's all sit quietly and think about the near future. SOUNDS GOOD GUYS NOBODY'S EXPLODING KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK

OH NO

A HYPE VIDEO

SEVERAL OF YOU HAVE NOW EXPLODED MY BAD SPONGEBOB MEME?

"you can attack their bigs" [Patrick Barron]

A much better anon coach quote article. Yahoo's was extremely silly, but ESPN's version is on point. On Michigan:

"They've got three really good on-ball defenders," one coach said. "Most teams don't have two, or even one. They have three. [Zavier] Simpson, [Muhammad-Ali] Abdur-Rahkman, [Charles] Matthews can really guard the ball. You don't have a matchup on the perimeter you can attack. They're handsy, they're physical in all the right ways. How handsy and chippy they are, in itself is very anti-Michigan-like. They're well-schooled. They're so good at putting their hands on or getting an armbar into you and then taking it off, then beating you to the spot." …

"If you're a traditional defensive team, you've got no chance of guarding them," one opposing coach said. "The teams that have slowed them down the most are teams that are nontraditional, that can switch a lot. You've got no chance of defending them if you don't switch ball screens."

Dollar says the latter quote there is from Matt Painter.

On Loyola:

"Everybody on their team is an above-average passer and can shoot it, so they have spacing," another head coach in the league said. "They don't take bad shots. They really work together as a team to get great shots every possession. They have an inside presence, but most of their offensive attack is transition or through spacing. Offensively, that's what makes them really good." …

"They ice ball screens and try to keep Krutwig in the paint defensively," he said. "So they've got some real tough decisions to make. You can't keep Krutwig in the paint against Wagner, so how they guard those actions, the pick-and-rolls in the middle of the floor. They can bring [Aundre] Jackson off the bench, but they need Krutwig on the floor. That's a real interesting thing for me."

Much more that's interesting at the link.

Yak's got this. Of all the reasons hiring Luke Yaklich might have benefited Michigan, "he'll have lots of experience against the MVC team Michigan sees in the Final Four" is the least likely. And yet:

Prior to joining the Wolverines, the defensive maestro went 7-1 against the Ramblers in his four seasons spent at Illinois State as an assistant coach and is familiar, at least fundamentally, with coach Porter Moser’s style of play.

“Coach Moser is an unbelievable coach ... you have to be locked in on both ends of the floor,” Yaklich said. “It’s gonna be a dog fight. His teams reflect his personality. They’re prepared, they get better, tough and they have a bunch of really great kids that have been through the Missouri Valley and non-conference wars.

“Loyola is obviously gonna have our full attention all week, and we’re thrilled with the opportunity to play in the Final Four against a really good and well-coached team.”

If Michigan wins on Saturday, before the final they need to hire an assistant from a team they can beat easily. How about Dane Fife?

One and done done? Syracuse recruit Darius Bazley has decided to blow off college hoops in favor of a year in the G league, because he's a serious dude.

“I’m self-motivated because I know this is what I want to do for the rest of my life. This is how I want to make a living. This is how I want to provide for my family, and provide for my love of basketball. I’m not playing any games with this. I’m attacking this straight forward. I’m not maneuvering around this, take any side steps. I’m taking this head on. This is the decision that I made, and I know it will work. I know what I’m capable of doing, and I’m going to do just that.”

Fair enough. Is this THE END for the current regime in college basketball? Maybe, maybe not. Bazley's salary in his sole G League year is apparently going to be a comically low 26k, and while he can sign with an agent and get some shoe money he'd probably be better off in the long run with the fame an NCAA tournament run could generate. And it's not like the shoe people can't just give his family money already.

On the other hand:

I think trying the G-League out instead of college makes sense for a whole host of reasons, but using it to avoid playing for Syracuse might be the most important thing for Darius Bazley's development as a prospect

— Nainan-ch Nails (@thom_not_tom) March 29, 2018

Bazley won't be wasting his time perfecting a defense that's illegal in the NBA and driving wildly into the lane hoping that this heavily contested shot miraculously falls. Why Bazley—or anyone cough cough Tyus Battle—with a potential NBA future would sign up for that remains a complete mystery. How a team stacked with NBA lottery picks could lose to that team is an even greater one.

PREPARE THE NELSON MEME. Oh and also this:

Jim Boeheim to @PeteThamel on the prospect of college vs. the G-League just a couple weeks back. Interesting in the wake of the Darius Bazley decision https://t.co/BKeGJYOQ7i pic.twitter.com/OVTHMqWpDW

— Brent Axe (@BrentAxeMedia) March 30, 2018

Or possibly the Sideshow Bob Steps On Rakes meme.

Would the end of one and done be bad for Michigan? Or good? I lean towards good. While the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world would start picking off guys outside the top 25 and might land on a guy that Michigan would otherwise get, the relative gap between those dudes and the dozen-or-so genetic lottery winners available annually is bigger than the 25-50 cohort and the next tier down.

Meanwhile the shoe money that funnels kids towards that restrictive list of bluebloods would now just be signing the top guys outright. The guys at the next level down would be choosing lower levels of bag if they eschew being developed by Beilein. I don't think it would upset the apple cart in college basketball that much; it would kill accidental superteams like "Anthony Davis and four other guys." Since Michigan was never going to get that guy, good.

PFF on Mo Hurst. They like him.

Why the @PFF crew thinks Maurice Hurst—not Bradley Chubb, Minkah Fitzpatrick or Roquan Smith—is the best defensive prospect in this year's draft class https://t.co/EIVWRLpjrS pic.twitter.com/JkawbNaVQr

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) March 30, 2018

They like him almost as much as I do.

Mid-majors: yes. 8-10 P5 teams: no. Rodger Sherman on the dwindling role of the underdog mid-major:

Twenty years ago, in 1998, the committee gave out at-large bids to Western Michigan (from the Mid-American Conference) and Illinois-Chicago and Detroit-Mercy (from the Midwestern Collegiate Conference, now called the Horizon League). When George Mason stunned the world by reaching the Final Four as a no. 11 seed in 2006, it did so thanks to an at-large bid, having failed to win the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. Same goes for 11th-seeded VCU in 2011, also an also-ran from the CAA. Between 1995 and 2005, UNC Charlotte made the tournament eight times despite winning the Conference USA tournament only twice. UNC Charlotte got six at-large bids in a span of 10 years!

If you’ll allow me to temporarily use a clumsy definition of “mid-major” for the purposes of this piece, let’s say the “mid-major” label applies any school that isn’t in one of the five football power conferences, their predecessors, or either the defunct or current versions of the Big East. In the 20 NCAA tournaments from 1995 to 2014, the selection committee extended at-large bids to an average of 8.9 schools fitting that definition, the high being 12 in 1995, 1998, and 2004. In half of those years at least 10 such teams landed at-large invitations. Since 2015, the committee has invited no more than seven such teams in a given year, bottoming out with last year’s four. You’d think this trend would be reversed, considering over that time frame the number of at-large bids has increased from 32 to 36 as the size of the tournament field has grown from 64 to 68. But no: With more available spots, the committee has rewarded fewer teams from mid-major leagues.

The NCAA should mandate no at large bids for a team that couldn't even win half its conference games. Only one good thing has ever happened because an 8-10 ACC team got in.

Lame. Michigan cancels the 2020-21 VT series, paying 400k to get out of it. In VT's place in 2020: Arkansas State. Something something it's smart because playoff, you say. And I say something something it's dumb because playoff, and we both have exactly the same amount of evidence.

Poole on JJJ. Jordan Poole and Jaren Jackson Jr played together at La Lumiere last year, and Poole thinks he knows that Jackson's out the door:

"I'm pretty sure I already know what his decision is," said Poole.

So, will the 19-year-old Jackson turn pro?

"For sure, I definitely think so, only because it’s an opportunity that not a lot of people are able to pass up. Being able to be in a situation like this, especially being in the lottery as a freshman and getting paid to play basketball, (which) is a dream, that’s definitely an opportunity that you have to take advantage of," Poole said.

You'd think this obvious since he's a top five pick who played fewer minutes in an NCAA tournament elimination than Ben Carter, but MSU people are putting it out there that Jackson is leaning towards returning. Izzo getting a lottery pick to return for more rebounding drills in football pads is almost as baffling as "anyone plays for Syracuse."

Etc.: How Villanova became VILLANOVA. KRACH tourney odds. Beilein, post-crash. Amateurism and Loyola. Title IX is no barrier to ending amateurism.

Things discussed:

• Sam is on a plane to San Antonio and Ed is not here so we’ve got Ira, Brian, and Craig today.
• People should be nicer to Craig on our message boards.
• Texas A&M: Show me two guys on the floor who can’t shoot and I’ll show you a Beilein win. Their zone didn’t matter because Michigan was hitting their shots, even if they weren’t as good of looks.
• Nobody practices midrange twos anymore—back when Craig was playing routinely day everyone liked that shot—Moses was 80% from that spot.
• Will see Michigan State play some 2-3 next year we bet. JJJ is 80% to come back via people in Lansing.
• In the past when Michigan didn’t shoot well they just lost—being able to win these types of games is. Mindblowing stat: Michigan is 7-3 this year shooting under 1 PPP when historically they were 12-84.
• Impressive that FSU didn’t get any transition points until that missed goaltend/awful call on Moe.
• The story of Yacklich: guy wanted to stay a high school teacher!
• Only elite defending PG you can put with Z in Michigan’s history with Z is Gary Grant. Yacklich has some weirdly defensive guys for Michigan: Z, Matthews.
• The recruitment of Z and Winston: Z’s dad got frustrated with being State’s 2nd fiddle.
• Leonard Hamilton and that relaxing 10 seconds. Two or three open looks all game! Their 7’4 guy only played 7 minutes?
• Those coaches comments were pretty salty.
• Loyola-Chicago: MVC Purdue. No rise-up shooters so their threes have to be assisted, but they can get efficient midrange shots to go regularly. Been winning games close. Will stretch Michigan’s defense.
• If they get to the championship: Villanova terrifies us. Brunson postups might be Zavier Simpson kryptonite. Like a super Michigan. Much rather play Kansas: more of a Purdue with a true 7 footer who gets in foul trouble.
• Frozen Four: Mel playing with house money. Very due for one of these Ohio State games when Michigan’s been winning 5-on-5 by a big margin. Hockey is plinko is the crux of the argument against this tournament format—Michigan got some luck against BU.
• When Quinn Hughes is off the ice you’re asking when does Quinn Hughes go back on the ice? Nice that they’re no longer on top of basketball.

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Podbean.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.

THE USUAL LINKS

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
• General podcast feed link
• Direct download link
• What's with the theme music?

Ben Carter’s gone so Jackson should have a chance to get starter’s minutes now.

I admit I didn’t imagine flautists in late March either. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: It’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. He’s a guy who thinks long term, and like Beilein has an incredible ability to turn areas of weakness into strength, except like in long term financial security terms. If you have questions about how you’re doing with all that stuff, let Nick know.

Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

-------------------------------

The Question:

Most surprising team to make a championship run, or most surprising player to be really good.

Brian: Cato June.

Ace: Stevie Brown.

Brian: Brown was pretty good as a senior as a proto-viper.

Seth: Ryan Mundy if we're going there.

Ace: All the safeties! Anyway, this basketball team is rather surprising, too.

Brian: I swear to god I will turn this post around and go home right now.

Seth: Brandent Englemon! Charles Drake! Jon Shaw! Willis Barring...I'm sorry what were we talking about?

Brian: I hate us.

Ace: SO, ZAVIER SIMPSON.

Seth: He could play safety.

BiSB: Has a certain Ray Vinopal quality to him.

Seth: They really did ask Don Brown this week if he'd take Z on defense and for a second his eyes lit up like "nickel..?"

Brian: Yeah, I don't think this team is as out there as some other contenders.

Ace: They’re pretty out there! This is a Beilein team that can’t really shoot that well.

The Mathlete: We literally wondered if they were a tournament caliber team during a potential championship season.

Ace: Midway through!

Brian: I mean, it's a weird configuration for a good team but I think that after the UCLA and Texas games the worst we thought was "second round exit," which... uh...

Ace: I’m on the optimistic side of Beilein hoops always and I was so damn worried about RPI.

Brian:

[After THE JUMP: Other things that went very differently than you thought this basketball season would go after Maui.]

[Patrick Barron]

From time to time you'll see an assertion that the NCAA basketball tournament is a bad way to determine a champion, because it's single elimination, not particularly fair, and doesn't really prove who the best team is. The Ken Pomeroy:

I feel like the best argument would be, "makes bracket contests more difficult", which isn't a case the NCAA can make. I feel like the second-best argument is, "this is an insane way to determine a champion anyway, so why bother making it more fair?"

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 22, 2018

He's in the middle of arguing for a re-seed after the first weekend, FWIW.

I bring it up because I think the tournament actually does a good job. The point of playoffs is to spit out a worthy champion, and college basketball almost always does. My favorite method to judge championship-worthy teams is a score-blind strength of record ranking. SOR is an attempt to calculate which team accomplished the most over the course of the season, and that seems like the best way to pick a champion. ESPN's version of that stat goes back to 2008. Final Fours since:

Only one champion in ten years finished the season ranked worse than #3, and surely there's enough wobble in any stat to declare that good enough. Only four times has a team ranked outside the top 4 even reached the title game, and the lone winner from the depths still finished 8th.

Unless Loyola pulls an upset on Saturday, this will continue: Villanova, Kansas, and Michigan are 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Loyola is 21st.

This situation does not hold for college hockey, by the way. Despite having far fewer competitive programs—about 40—KRACH ranked 2015 champion Providence 16th, 2013 champion Yale 13th, 2011 champ Minnesota-Duluth 7th, 2008 champ BC 10th, and 2007 champ MSU 12th. It's little better than a coin flip between a team that can claim to legitimately have had the best season and some rando that just squeezed in. That's why this space rails against that single-elimination tourney while being sanguine about basketball's.