spoiler alert: i linked this
[Ed: In case you were wondering what that business about dolla bills was...]
At Wednesday’s press conference, Brandon made reference to Michigan’s mediocre compensation package. I knew that Michigan didn’t pay top dollar for coaches, but when I heard Brandon refer to it as “middle of the road” and “unacceptable”, dude/etts… how can that be? It’s Michigan; we have scratch if nothing else. So, I embarked on a mission with the following objectives: 1) Define middle of the road and 2) recalibrate the coaching salary budget. I have learned, at the very least, a meaningful chunk of the explanation to a few issues we have observed.
For this study, I used USA Today’s Database of coach’s salaries for 2010.
What is Middle of the Road?
To answer this question a more sophisticated look is needed than my reflexive answer: the average or 50th percentile of the population. In Michigan’s case, the population could mean at least three things.
All FBS schools, pop.: 120. Pretty straight forward as to who’s included here. Middle of the road would be top-60 money. No way, Michigan has more money than Indiana, let alone Louisiana Monroe. This population is out.
All BCS AQ schools, pop.: 66. Again straight forward and more reasonable. Middle of the road is top-33 money. A useful benchmark.
“The FBS Hegemony”, pop.: 15 (or so). I have some ‘splaining to do here. Before 1980 college football was pretty different from what we see today: scholarship limits have changed, the passing game has been allowed to evolve, and the Florida schools have emerged. Not to mention the basic amateurism and substitution rules changes that occurred prior to 1970. In college football, anything before 1980 is simply a by-gone era.
As such, I define the “hegemony” as those schools who could plausibly win a mythical national championship in the modern era. To determine these I’ve looked at the schools who have actually won one since 1980, only 19 schools qualify. Of those, only 12 have won an MNC since 1990 and still could: Alabama, Florida, Florida St., LSU, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, USC. Since Notre Dame gets special BCS consideration, they’re in. Then there’s another rotating crop of schools that could plausibly vie for an MNC today (Penn St, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Auburn, and Oregon) but haven’t done so in the last 25 years. Fifteen feels like a good number to work with, though I think a reasonable argument could be made for 20. I’m going with 15. So, middle of the road for “the hegemony” would be top-8 money.
Assessing Michigan’s Compensation Package
For simplicity’s sake, I focused my attention on University-based pay for Head Coaches and their staff (total). Of the 112 programs available in the database, the $2.5M Michigan paid Rich Rodriguez in 2010 is better than middle of the road for BCS schools (top-12 in FBS), but basically middle of the road (9th out of 15) for MNC-plausible schools included in the database.
When it comes to assistant coaches, things are different; unfortunately for everyone involved. In 2010, Michigan peeled of $1.8M in compensation for former Coach Rodriguez’s staff ranks in the 73rd percentile for the 112 programs listed (top-31 money) but dead last amongst the big dogs. Who among us is willing to pay more money for better defensive assistants? No one, I’m sure… /s.
I sooo don’t want to rehash but it’s clear that Rich Rodriguez had a specific vision for what he wanted his defense to be capable of and there he knew just the guy to do it (not shown at right). The word on Hoover street is that Jeff Casteel just liked West FUCKING Virginia too much to come to Ann Arbor. OK. Homeboy earned just over $372k last year. Allow me to visualize a phone call between Rich and Jeff circa Thanksgiving 2008:
RR: Hey! Jeff, buddy, pal, friend-o-mine; how goes it?
JC: Aiight, I guess. I kinda miss my homies and it sucks being Brian Kelly’s bitch, but the squad is doing ok down here and I’m super glad that I didn’t uproot my family to move to Michigan and deal with THAT cluster-[bleep], you know?
RR: Totally... *sigh* [collects himself] So, how would you like to bring your sweet-ass defensive coordinating ability and concepts to ace deuce next year? Our helmets got wings… ah? AH? Have I ever told you that you raise me up so I can stand on mountains? That, with you around, I can walk I stormy seas? That I am strong when I am on your shoulders? That you raise me up to more than I can be?
JC: Yo… get a grip, G. What have those hippies done to you, yo?
I dunno, bro; I kinda like it here and like I said, it looks like you have a cluster-[bleep] on your hands--
JC: Hey, Stewart! Eat a [hot dog]! See you tomorrow, Rich, buddy, pal, friend-o-mine.
Or something like that. By “like that” I mean verbatim.
Gerg was our second highest paid assistant last year at $270k, but really he only made $5k less than Magee. Guess what the top two assistants in the hegemony averaged in 2010 excluding Muschamp…about $425k. We had the lowest paid offensive and defensive coordinators by at least $25k and we were $100k away from middle of the pack.
Nope, that won’t do for a team trying not to suck. Bill Martin made many mistakes, but being cheap is the only one I find
impossible very difficult to forgive.
It goes on. You get the picture but, in case you don’t here’s a chart; gotta have a chart:
That thar is bullshit.
How Much Would You Pay to Not Suck?
$6.5 Million per year, exactly. No less than $5.7M
Jim Harbaugh commanded a salary at that Nick Saban / Mack Brown level ($5M per year). Pretty steep but I’d shell it out this very second… Anyway, Meyer, Stoops, Miles, Tressel are at the $4M range. To be the program everyone
used to thinks of when they hear MICHIGAN--you know, part of the hegemony. Right?—we need a head coach worth at least $3M (Mark Richt) and probably more like $4M (Jim Tressel - $3.5M)If you’re going to beat Tressel don’t you have to, you know, beat Tressel?
As for assistants, the golden ratio fits very nicely: 62% of budget on head coach, 38% of budget on the rest of the staff. That equates to a total budget of $6.5M.
But Wait, There’s More…
I think Michigan should be will to pay top dollar for the ultimate prizes (Bowl Wins, B1G Championships, National Championships). We need escalators for each accomplishments for everyone on the staff. Something like this:
Staff - Bowl Win: +5% Salary
Staff - B1G Championship: +10% Salary
Staff – National Championship: +35% Salary
All cumulative. So, winning a National Championship would increase each staff member’s pay by 50%. At a budget of $5.7M, a national championship would result in an outlay (salaries and bonuses) equal to Alabama’s base 2010 salary budget ($8.4M).
Boom, let’s get to work.
Assistant type folk I’d like to see M land/go after once we have a horse:
- Chuck Heater – Formerly DB / co-DC at Florida; played at Michigan with Dave Brandon.
- Teryl Austin – Formerly DC at Florida; DB coach for two Super Bowl Teams (Seattle 2003, Arizona 2006); defensive backs coach in prime Carr years (1999 - 2002).
- Scot Loeffler – Coached and/or recruited Tom Brady, Drew Henson, John Navarre, Chad Henne, Ryan Mallet at Michigan.
- Phil Bennett - Impressive 2009 national ratings in sacks (3.62 sacks/game), rushing defense (17th, 106.31 yards/games), scoring defense (19th, 19.77 points/game) and total defense (23rd, 319.31 yards/game). In 2010 Pitt ranked 9th in total defense (304 ypg).
- Bill McGovern - 2010 Eagles ranked #1 nationally in rushing defense (80 ypg), 13th in total defense (310 ypg), 19th in scoring defense (19.5 ppg)in the ACC in rushing defense, allowing just 103.2 rushing yards per game.
Everyone but McGovern is currently available AFAIK. It’s guys like this that make me most nervous about not having an HC locked down right now. I’d feel much better about Brady Hoke if I knew who he would have in tow with him if he were to be hired.
Still, I prefer to find someone who commands a $3-4 M salary.
We'll get started between 12:30 and 12:45. The game is at 1 on NBC.
Oh, Lord. Kelvin Grady is using the twitter cryptically:
And Flight Aware caught that winged helmet Learjet touching down in Baton Rouge, so it's time to blow up again. Yes, Les Miles is in Dallas. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the winged helmet Learjet has nothing to do with the university. No, WE WILL NOT BE DISSUADED FROM EXPLODING.
So LSU boards are virtually overrun with speculation about Miles leaving Michigan, and Miles was less definitive in his post-Not Cotton Bowl press conference and there's a LA radio station* reporting that Miles will take the Michigan job "within 48 hours." Of course, I'm listening to it at the moment and the first caller is deliciously confrontational, forcing the guy to back off a little bit. "His sources" directly contradict random radio guy's sources, which given the track record of radio stations when it comes to breaking news is just about as worthwhile. They pegged their confidence at "8 or 9 out of ten."
Despite that radio call-in smackdown, there is an absolute ton of buzz about Miles to Michigan from the LSU side of things. I have a second-hand non-gospel report originating from LSU boosters saying he's gone that's two days old now and Tiger Droppings has been burning up with stuff. You take the word of message boards at your peril but as a guy who's wandered around them for years the widespread buzz has the air of something true.
On the other hand, if Miles is leaving he's apparently not only not told his players but bluntly lied to them:
Russell Shepard just told me Les Miles assured team he's coming back. Not going to Michigan. … So have many others.
He did cut that one guy with a form letter so maybe they haven't checked their mail recently.
I've made my opinion clear on this: Miles is old, has enthusiastically adopted the tao of SEC, and just saw his program take a more serious hit from the NCAA than Rodriguez did. Even if it works out in five years Michigan is going to be saddled with a coach exactly as old as Carr was when he retired and will either get to experience the extended senescence of a guy who's already wacky or experience yet another transition. I would prefer Brady Hoke.
I'm probably alone in this, I know.
UPDATE: More from LSU players:
"He said, 'They have rumors going around about (me) going to Michigan, but it's not true,'" Jefferson said. "'It's nonsense.' He said hasn't spoken to anybody, anything about Michigan. We're going to stick with that and get ready for next year." …
"He told us this is his football team and this is where he's going to be," Ridley said. "We respect our coach, and this is our coach for right now, and we're going to enjoy him as long as we can. Coach Miles is a Tiger. This is his group of guys, and he's proud of us. I think this is where he will be next year."
Seems fairly unambiguous there.
There's a press conference scheduled. It's over:
Jim Harbaugh agreed to a five-year, $25 million contract to become the San Francisco 49ers' head coach Friday, according to team and league sources.
The 49ers announced a news conference scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET, but did not indicate the reason.
Commence the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Turns out I have less than I thought I did after reviewing items, but the remainder…
Other people are on planes. So. It's that time again:
It's not a coaching search without people tracking a plane they think might have Dave Brandon in it and pointing out that Phoenix is somewhat close to Jim Harbaugh but not too close, right, so probably they're definitely meeting in Phoenix at an Applebee's wearing big Groucho Marx noses so no one recognizes them, right?
A point in the conspiracy theorists' favor: the plane is registered to Domino's Pizza and spent the new year hanging out in Jacksonville watching Michigan get crushed by Mississippi State. Since then it's done this.
- Wednesday, 5 PM: Headed out to Latrobe, PA.
- Wednesday, 10 PM: flew from Latrobe to Chicago.
- Yesterday, 1 PM: flew from Chicago to Phoenix
What does this mean? Eh… probably that someone other than David Brandon is using the plane for purposes related to the business of Dominos. But it's a coaching search so you get Flight Aware. These are the rules.
But wait! There's more! Another plane suspiciously not registered to anything related to the University of Michigan—"Unknown Owner"—has been flying places. A reader relates its progress:
- Willow Run flight left for Miami midday 1/4 when firing "reported" but supposedly not made (Mary Sue Coleman or other agent leaving)
- Miami flight scheduled to Van Nuys, CA on 1/5 and does go, but makes previously unscheduled stop in Lubbock (?). Timing is 2 hours post firing presser. Could be to finalize plan, get gas, time up the following #3, or who knows. Only on ground 47 minutes. Arrives in Van Nuys at 5:09 pacific (Ross in tow to make help make pitch?)
- Gulfstream flight from San Jose, CA lands in Van Nuys at 5:52 pacific (Harbaugh?)
- Flight from Miami to Van Nuys leaves for Palm Springs at 5:57 (easy switchover for "Harbaugh" w/ a private aircraft) stays night there.
- Miami flight departs for home (Boca airport) at 10:05 A.M on 1/6
- Next flight out of Palm Springs at 10:11 AM is private plane to Monterrey Peninsula airport--less public than San Jose airport and 60 miles south of Palo Alto--lands at 11:03 AM
- 49ers meet w/ Harbaugh today in undisclosed location - he flies somewhere else or drives somewhere between SF and airport to meet 49ers.
This is all bats and obviously means Mike Leach is the next coach. Stop in Lubbock, people. Mike Leach.
But wait! There's actual information possibly worth reading! So… as mentioned the sudden reversal in the Harbaugh story now lends some credence to the old acquaintances/teammates from yesterday who were predicting Harbaugh to Michigan in the face of the Twitter army. I'm still a little leery that the only thing out there other than this site that says M-to-Harbaugh isn't dead is John Elway's random opinions on the radio, but…
- Solid source says Harbaugh and Brandon will speak today. There is a separate, extremely fuzzy and probably untrue rumor that it's happening in Phoenix.
- Another says Ross spent most of his time with Harbaugh badgering him about taking the Michigan job, not making him richer than Stephen Ross, and that Michigan is "still in the game" but Andrew Luck's dastardly desire to get a degree isn't helping.
As of 1:30 PM on Friday 1/7, there seems to be a chance.
Hat. Despite my antipathy for Miles—it's a sign of the fanbase's vast desperation that people are trying to talk themselves into the guy—I'm duty-bound to report that a southern correspondent reports that LSU fans are rumbling about losing Miles shortly after the Tigers play A&M tonight. These are fuzzy indeed.
There is also a random thread on Tiger Droppings saying players think Miles is gone as well because in private he's been "much more melancholy," which what the hell does that mean?
I've repeatedly stated the reasons Miles makes no sense—repeat "he will be sixty in three years" if nothing else works for you—and there's an element of wishful thinking around the reports since losing Miles to Michigan would resolve the great idiot/genius debate surrounding him.
Hoke. Endorsed by Jason Whitlock.
Patterson: door not exactly closed. This seems like a guy who will at least listen:
"No, I haven't been contacted," Patterson told 105.3-The Fan. "I've got a great job here.
"TCU has a chance to be maybe the No. 2 or No. 1 team (next season), depending on what poll, in the nation. Maybe we are one of those people (elite programs) now. That's what I've been trying to build the program to get to. Michigan has a great tradition and is a great university. I'll cross that bridge when I get there."
Someone talk to him, yes? I mean, seriously. Someone contact him.
WHO WILL THE BRIDE BE?
WILL MICHIGAN BE THE SAD GUY IN THE HAT STANDING IN THE RAIN?
Fitzgerald: "No." Yesterday it seemed we'd established that Michigan was interested in Pat Fitzgerald but the inverse was still in question. It's no longer, according to everyone. Picking one at random:
A person familiar with the situation says Michigan expressed interest in him, but he will remain with the Wildcats. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because of its sensitivity.
At least the first semi-official name in Great Coaching Search Debacle II makes more sense than offering Kirk Ferentz a paycut, but that means we have to move on to…
Not Bo Pelini. The Blade published a story indicating a "source" said Bo Pelini would be interested in the Michigan job if it was interested in him, please check y/n. From the outset this screamed "agent" and a man on the twitters from the AP says Pelini is vehemently denying everything:
Bo Pelini tells me in no uncertain terms that he has no interest in Michigan job.
If Twitter allowed longer posts that would have finished "and then he ate my head." After what went down with a nice but naive and sweary guy like Rich Rodriguez I have no idea what would happen if and when a guy whose veins must have the tensile strength of spider silk and had to formally apologize for his sideline behavior got the head job.
Bo Pelini's agent is Neal Cornrich, who is based in Cleveland, which is the only reason someone in Toledo would have something on Pelini. File under "agent wrangling" and move on.
OH MY GOD THERE'S A CHANCE. So Jim Harbaugh did not get adopted by Stephen Ross and made the dauphin of Versailles, nor do the people on the twitter who talk about Jim Harbaugh think the 49ers are a viable option anymore. The Dolphins are keeping Tony Sparano—who must be overjoyed at the vote of confidence—and here's Adam Schefter, with the Schefter bit* in bold:
RT @jcashen87: I think it is between Stanford and SF. ... I don't see 49ers as viable alternative at this time.
The other thing is something the other guy tweeted at Schefter, drawing that response. The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, have just dropped plans to interview him, which would essentially take the NFL off the table.
That leaves Stanford as a major obstacle. Stanford has some major attractions people thought they wouldn't a month ago: Andrew Luck and a kajillion dollars. From the Broncos story:
Including all bonuses and clauses, Harbaugh could earn more at Stanford than with the 49ers, who met with the coach Wednesday and have offered around $4.5 million to $5 million. Also, Harbaugh's quarterback, Andrew Luck, announced Thursday that he will not apply for entry into the 2011 NFL Draft.
Wait what? Stanford is going to pay Harbaugh more than an NFL team? I'll believe that when I see it and we won't see it since Stanford is private but they do have an epic ton of money. No one to fill their tiny stadium, but an epic ton of money.
But people, before we get excited we need completely off-the-wall speculation from someone not particularly close to the situation badly transcribed from radio and jammed into too-few characters. Let's not start su—
John Elway says he thinks Jim Harbaugh wants to stay at Stanford&Michigan may be back in the picture.Aprntly will NOT be Broncos next coach.
We may be back in the picture! Everyone start! Start right now! Like that episode of South Park with the pile!
Elway did say he thought Stanford would keep him, according to everyone else's bastardized twitter recaps, FWIW, none of which mention anything about Michigan being back in the picture. The NFL stuff evaporating lends a lot more credence to the Harbaugh chatter from yesterday, though, and I'd rather compete against just Stanford in a quien es mas macho contest than Stanford and half of the NFL.
More in a bit.
*[As always, the nature of Twitter—the most unusable nightmare software ever foisted upon the world—lends itself to mass confusion.]
Understand decades of on and off mediocrity because no one is that dead guy
"Understand Michigan." Desmond Howard was busy blowing this up on the teevee a coupe days ago but that doesn't stop everyone in the world from writing columns about how the new guy "must understand the Michigan way" or "came to Michigan three years ago as a pair of jeans and a sweatshirt in an athletic department of blue blazers." Or the university must "regain its identity."
All of this gives me hives. We have learned that someone who naively enters and expects everyone to be nice, as Rodriguez did, is in for a rough time. All things being equal, Michigan should go with a Tresselian non-speaker who regards the media as cancer and bores everyone to death.
This is different than chasing some sort of mystical "Michigan way" that needs to be recaptured. The guys with a connection to the Michigan way before that meant always losing to Ohio State with occasional fun Horrors thrown in are either Jim Harbaugh (not coming) or Les Miles (plain slimy*). The Michigan way is dead, literally and figuratively, and Michigan needs a new way. They seem poised to repeat the mistakes Alabama did as they fruitlessly tried to replace Bear Bryant, ("Mike Shula has a vague connection to Bear! That's the ticket!") except in this case the most OMG BO hire would be awesome but isn't interested.
If Harbaugh isn't coming, just go outside again instead of shoehorning a guy into a spot he doesn't deserve and putting him behind the eight ball from the start.
*[Protests about this will fall on deaf ears. LSU just got hit with much more important NCAA violations than Michigan did. Miles cut a kid who had been on campus for months, offering a "greyshirt" he had never discussed with him. And he 1) cut a quarterback with a form letter, 2) refused to speak to that quarterback about the form letter, and 3) baldly lied about the kid at SEC media days. He's a media firestorm waiting to happen and he might bring Gary Crowton and he might make my head explode by letting the clock run out in the fourth quarter and he's reaching the age when coaches decline precipitously. Hoke is vastly preferable.
LSU fans currently making snarky posts about how awesome he is will be coating him in batter and thrusting him into a deep fryer at the first sign of weakness.]
Meanwhile, exiting… Brock Mealer on Rodriguez:
"He's just always been (portrayed) as a villain, and he's nothing like that," Mealer said. "He's one of the greatest guys I have ever met in my life, and I wish people would just acknowledge that. As little as I know about football, I know his character is much different than people played it out to be."
Someone punch Jeff DeFran in the throat, thanks. It didn't work out and there's plenty of blame to go around but Rodriguez was probably damaged more by Michigan than vice-versa. Is there any coach in recent history who's been fired and still has fans hoping he succeeds wherever he goes next as the media gleefully jumps up and down on his grave? Multiple people who were at the Brandon presser described the mood as "celebratory," or words to that effect.
As of yesterday, no Patterson contact. At least not according to Dennis Dodd:
Gary Patterson had not been contacted by Michigan for its opening as of Wednesday night according to a source close to the TCU coach.
Patterson, fresh off a 13-0 season and Rose Bowl win, is thought to be a candidate for the job left open after the firing of Rich Rodriguez by AD Dave Brandon. Brandon said earlier Wednesday he expects to move quickly to fill the vacancy but arguably the hottest coach in the country had not gotten a call 12 hours after Rodriguez had been let go.
Suboptimal. Or lies, I guess.
Speaking of oversigning castoffs. Michigan doesn't have a coach but the Blade is reporting that a Mike Marrow wants to transfer in. Marrow was a three-star fullback who redshirted at Alabama and then moved closer to home to "deal with the deaths of three grandparents" but could not get eligible at Eastern Michigan and now is looking for a new home. Marrow's two years removed from playing time and has a skillset duplicated by Stephen Hopkins on a team with plenty of RB depth and desperate need on defense—the chance he actually ends up at Michigan will depend on how shattered this recruiting class is on Signing Day. So welcome Mike Marrow, everybody.
Hoke in, Denard out? Hoke on the Oregon offense, which I will remind you is the OREGON OFFENSE and is playing essentially the Oregon offense in the national championship game:
When asked recently about the influence of Oregon’s offense, Hoke subtly revealed his disdain for the tactical shift Michigan experienced under Rodriguez. He is convinced that modern spread option offenses can be counterproductive to the core values of smashmouth football and are, therefore, to be avoided.
“Right, wrong or indifferent, when you’re zone blocking all the time -- when you’re playing basketball on grass -- you practice against that all spring, you practice against it all fall and then you’re going to play a two-back team that wants to knock you off the football,” Hoke said. “I don’t think you’re prepared.
“I think there’s a toughness level (required in college football). I still believe you win with defense. That’s been beaten into my head a long time, but I really believe that. The toughness of your team has to be the offensive front and your defensive front.”
(Oddly, that article is by Tim Sullivan. Not that Tim Sullivan.)
If you're eager to get Michigan started on a painful transition away from the offense they just painfully transitioned to, Hoke's your man. If he's hired we'll get some soundbites about flexibility but they'll be about as convincing as Tommy Tuberville's strained "hhhhyyyarrrrr" upon his hiring at Texas Tech. If there are coaches out there comfortable with the spread offense that's proven itself kind of good across college football they'd be preferable to a guy who professes disdain for "basketball on grass" and doesn't have the track record to suggest he's anything more than average at the other stuff.
And he's not even right. Three of the top four yardage defenses in the country play opposite offense that are pretty much basketball on grass: TCU, Boise State, and West Virginia. It's a bit different if you look at FEI but something like half of the top ten plays opposite a full-on spread: WVU, Missouri, Virginia Tech and Auburn are spreads and Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Nebraska use a fair number of spread concepts.
I'm not sure you were paying attention. Who's surprised Rodriguez is fired? No one except his players:
"Definitely I'm surprised," said Gordon. "I have a lot of love for Coach Rod. He's the guy who brought me here. He's a guy I definitely respected and I loved him as a coach."When asked what his future plans are, Gordon replied, "I'm here. I came to school for Michigan."Said Gordon: "Yes it is surprising, but it is what it is. You've just got to move on."
This explains something about or secondary.
The batphone rings. ALERT THE MEDIA
I followed Mr. Robinson for one day, which started at 7 a.m. with treatment for his swollen knee, followed by weightlifting, classes, an interview with ESPN Radio, more treatment, meetings, practice, a third round of treatment, dinner and study table. When he walked out of the academic center at 10 p.m., two adults who had been waiting all night for him in the parking lot approached him to sign a dozen glossy photos. I went home exhausted—and I hadn't done anything more than take notes.
FETCH THE DEEP FRYER
(Also that's a John U Bacon story on what went on inside the program that will become an undoubtedly fascinating book.)
Etc.: Penn State denies Bolden a release because Paterno doesn't have enough quarterbacks without him. This will end well. How Gary Patterson's undersized defense shut down Wisconsin. Yes please. Ever notice how it's always Carr's old players talking crap about Rodriguez publicly as the Bo guys remain mum? Nevermind! Of course Lynn Henning thinks Hoke is a great idea. John Niyo says let's wait for a new coach announcement before we hand Brandon over to LSU fans to be battered and fried.
With the coaching situation unsettled as it is, covering the day-to-day of the 2011 recruiting class is a little... short-sighted at this point. Instead, let's talk about the prospects already in the class, what the coaching change means for them, and the prospects whose interest in Michigan hasn't changed (or has dropped off completely) with the change. Hopefully, things will be back to normal next week. First things first:
Goodbye, Dee Hart
The writing's been on the wall for a while in this recruitment. As Michigan's season stumbled along to 7-6 after a 5-0 start, FL RB Demetrius Hart seemed to be looking elsewhere, especially to play with his buddy Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix at Alabama. Although Hart says his mind isn't yet made up, it appears that he is indeed Crimson Tide-bound - he announces a decision at the Army All-American Game on Saturday. With Rodriguez out the door, chances are nil that he recommits to the Wolverines.
Keeping it Together
Since the coaching situation is in such a serious state of flux, it's hard to know where to go from here. Among the current commits, OH CB Greg Brown is 100% to land in the class, because he's already enrolled in Ann Arbor.
Prospects who have committed since the turmoil began (MI LB Desmond Morgan, MD CB Blake Countess - strong with Michigan ($) - and CA K Matt Goudis) knew what they were possibly getting into at the time, and are also likely to be solid.
After that, most of the local-ish commits are solid, including OH DE/OL Jack Miller, OH DT Chris Rock, MI DE Brennen Beyer, and MI CB Delonte Hollowell. Though he's located in Texas, LB Kellen Jones is also a longtime Michigan fan who's likely to stick no matter what. MI OL Jake Fisher will look around a little bit, but plans to talk to the new head coach before considering a decommitment.
That leaves FL CB Dallas Crawford and FL OL Tony Posada as the largest question marks. People close to Crawford told Tom that he plans to stick with Michigan, but later opened up his recruitment, and he's told local source that he no longer considers himself a Michigan commit. Posada will wait to see who the new headman is before making any decisions. He's getting interest from Oregon, Notre Dame, and other schools.
OH LB Antonio Kinard's status with Michigan is still a question mark, regardless of who the coach is. At this time, it looks like Hart is likely to be the only defection in the class (coaching change-related, at least).
Michigan is in very good position with NC WR/LB Kris Frost (firing Rodriguez will only affect him a bit because he's made his decision based on school, not coach) and IL OL Chris Bryant (down to Michigan and Arizona, January 21st decision). I think those two are likely to end up in Michigan's class no matter who the coach is.
FL S Wayne Lyons also likes Michigan, but committing to a coach-less school might be too much for him, as he plans to announce at Saturday's Army All-American Game. CA WR Devin Lucien may be in the same boat, but with a decision further in the future - late January ($, info in header), which Tom nails down as the 30th.
Unfortunately, until a coach is hired, most of the news we hear from individual prospects is going to be about dropping the Wolverines from consideration, such as KY LB Lamar Dawson eliminating the Wolverines ($, info in header),
Michigan has a couple prospects of interest in Saturday's Army All-American Game (Noon on NBC) - including some who are deciding live during the game, such as Frost and Lyons - and Sam Webb brings the latest info on those guys.
Note: 2012 updates will be on hiatus until after Signing Day.
This is what I currently believe is going on, tenuously. Extreme caveat: this is nuts.
Seriously, people, the Jim Harbaugh boat has sailed. The latest awesome conspiracy theory is that Miami is going to bid Harbaugh up into the stratosphere so the 49ers hire someone else. Then Stephen Ross is going to say "whoops I apparently still have this Sparano guy around" and cackle his way to Ann Arbor with a contrite Harbaugh in tow. This is truly an awesome conspiracy theory. It's not happening:
Ross had dialogue with University of Michigan officials to ensure that he would not be competing for Harbaugh's services with his alma mater, sources said. Ross, who is one of Michigan's largest benefactors, was assured by a Michigan official that Harbaugh was not reciprocating interest in the college's now-vacant head coaching position.
"But that's what they want you to think!" Yes. Yes, that. Apparently we don't have to rename the school of business The Jerk Store, so we've got that going for us. That and nothing else.
…Unless it hasn't (but it probably has). I do have some stuff in the inbox second-hand from Harbaugh friends that says he's "likely to be coach by the end of the week" and that in mid-December he was asking people close to him in Ann Arbor about schools and whatnot. Given everything public—most prominently Dave Brandon all but screaming "JIM HARBAUGH WILL NOT BE COACHING MICHIGAN NEXT YEAR" during the press conference—I think the former is inaccurate but it does cite something I've heard from a reliable source: that the big issue was always going to be the amount of Harbaugh's buyout for the NFL in case he wanted to pull a Spurrier at some point. So there's at least some credence there.
The latter would indicate that Harbaugh did indeed change course recently, thus spurring the somewhat bitter/smarmy "NFL challenge" routine from Brandon yesterday and potentially explaining why we're at sea three weeks from Signing Day. An established source says "something terrible happened in the last two days"—those being Monday and Tuesday—that caused Rodriguez to go from 100% gone to possibly back if he can assure Brandon things are going in the right direction back to gone. Terrible thing seems likely to be Harbaugh backing out, no?
FWIW, that last source is still holding out hope that Brandon and Harbaugh can work something out. Dim hope, but hope.
Les Miles? Do I need to say this about a grass-eating nutcase pushing 60 who can't count to 85? In case I do: Les Miles should not be happening.
Yes, I have a crazy fourth-hand rumor that one of the assistant's wives says "Hoke and Miles" are the current the focus, but even the emailer says he's not sure why on earth a just-fired-assistant's wife would know that. Welcome to a coaching search. I also have a second-hand source saying someone you've heard of lists him as one of three main candidates along with Hoke and…
One mid-major P may be in play. An emailer from outside the Michigan fanbase who I've known a while is connected to one of those firms that conducts coaching searches and relates that Boise State's Chris Petersen "doesn't even return exploratory phone calls"—which is probably why he's never rumored to be a candidate anywhere outside of blogger lists. You can write him off if you haven't already.
On the other hand, there is a "sense that the TCU boys were finally ready to move on," though this was before they got the Big East bid. There is obviously a vast chasm between this and Michigan actually talking to Patterson and company, but the aforementioned person you've heard of says Patterson is the third name on the list.
Fitzgerald buzz continues to seem real. If you were listening to WTKA this morning you heard Craig Ross cite a couple of sources within the department saying Michigan was going to look at Fitzgerald, which makes something like a half-dozen independent corroborations that Michigan is interested. This is not on par with the Hoke stuff but it's obvious people would be pushing Hoke because of their personal relationship with him even if San Diego State had gone 0-12 this year. Fitzgerald does not have any in-house friends.
As to the question hanging over any discussion of Fitzgerald—will he leave Northwestern?—a second-hand source says Northwestern has a wealthy alum willing to fork over serious cash to keep him. However, while in the past personal conversations with Fitzgerald led the source to believe he would "never" leave Northwestern, recently that stance has softened and "he can't say that anymore." Still… that's going to be a tough guy to pull. Money won't be the reason Fitz leaves if he does.
There's a decent chance Scot Loeffler returns. Loeffler may or may not be out of a job in the aftermath of Florida's coaching search. Even if he's still the QB coach in Gainesville if the new coach wants him he will come back to Ann Arbor. This would make the recruitment of FL QB Jeff Driskel (who is kind of good) interesting. Since Loeffler is one of two Carr assistants to actually land comparable jobs at other schools (Eric Campbell is the WR coach at Iowa) and he's still carrying around that ability to recruit awesome quarterbacks anyone with pro-style inclinations should definitely hire him.
Mike Barwis may be staying long-term. Unlike everyone else who got the broom, Mike Barwis was kept on as S&C coach, "really likes Michigan," and may retain that job if someone amenable to keeping him is hired. Hoke might keep him; Miles—who seems incredibly implausible—would not.
Keeping Barwis would go a long way towards minimizing transfers, FWIW.
Dave Brandon did a good job with the players yesterday. Reports from the meeting with the players are reassuring after what was a very wobbly press conference. One anonymous player: "It was like a weight was lifted off my shoulders." It sounded like there were plans bigger than "one of the usual suspects," but if it was a usual suspect it would be because he's earned the job.
Note: New banner thanks to Six Zero.
I didn't think we'd be here. I thought Rodriguez would get year four or we'd be having a press conference introducing Jim Harbaugh today, but the bowl game happened and Harbaugh spurned us, apparently to coach mercenaries at AT&T PNC Citi Invesco Parkfield because all that stuff about bleeding maize and blue turned out to be so much bullshit. But we're here.
It's either this or self-pity. I already binned all the Smiths songs yesterday and am all out of high-concept emo posts. So. Contrary to what you may have heard, there are people other than Brady Hoke coaching college football and some of them also win games. A brief list of people a "national search" might turn up as people to kick the tires on:
The Same Mid-Major Names That Come Up Every Year For Naught
The Ps currently dominating wack (get it) leagues: Chris Petersen at Boise State and Gary Patterson at TCU, plus Utah's Kyle Wittingham. The latter two will be in BCS conferences next year.
Chris Petersen, Boise State
Record: 61-5 in five years with the Broncos.
PROS: 61-5 in five years as a head coach. Relatively young. Trick-play happy and ballsy. Runs a passing spread that seems adaptable to Michigan's current offensive talent. Nice-seeming dude who would not throw the local media into a conniption fit.
CONS: Both previous Boise State head coaches to light out for greener pastures have been miserable failures as they go from way more resources than the competition to less. Petersen took over a monster program already and has had it humming along just fine but did not build it. No recruiting ties to the Midwest.
ACQUIRABILITY: Michigan could more than double the 1.5 million he's currently making. Would it matter? Petersen's had his name up for dozens of jobs and seems content in Boise.
Gary Patterson, TCU
Record: 98-28 in ten years
PROS: Took over for TCU in 2001 and has had a decade at the helm of the Horned Frogs. After a 6-6 start his teams have won ten games in seven of nine years and just finished an ass-kicking 13-0 campaign that ended with a Rose Bowl win against Wisconsin. Turns out awesome defenses on the regular. Runs passing spread like Boise and should be able to adapt to Robinson and company.
CONS: Also took over a team that was already pretty good at 10-2 the year before. No Midwest recruiting ties.
ACQUIRABILITY: Salary unknown since TCU is private but certainly Michigan could offer a major bump. TCU is moving to an auto-bid conference next year and is poised to own it, but it's the Big East, AKA "probably no better than the Mountain West." Like Petersen, obviously should have gotten a bigger job already but has not, suggesting he is in for the long haul at TCU.
Kyle Wittingham, Utah
Record: 58-20 in six years.
PROS: Slightly less awesome record than Patterson but did put together that 13-0 team in 2008 that beat Michigan and stomped Alabama in the BCS. Team fell off slightly to 10-3 the last two years. Was the DC for a decade before his move to the top job. Nice guy. Runs same passing spread the two guys above do.
CONS: Same story: took over a program with many advantages relative to its peers already poised at the top of the heap. Urban Meyer came in and the Utes went 10-2, then 12-0 when Wittingham took over.
ACQUIRABILITY: Wittingham makes 1.2 million a year, though entry into the Pac-12 will give Utah the funds to greatly increase that. Same story with the guys above: if he's still at Utah it seems like that's because he is not inclined to leave.
Guys We Would Instantly Make Villains By Hiring Them
Charlie Strong, Louisville
Record: 7-6 in one year
PROS: Architect of killer Florida defenses for almost a decade and annual subject of "why on earth won't anyone hire this guy" posts because he's also an awesome recruiter—Louisville picked up Teddy Bridgewater after he decommitted from Miami—and an all-around nice guy. Good shot at keeping and properly deploying Denard.
CONS: Bolting Louisville after one season would seriously damage his rep and give folks the same old story about how Michigan's coach has the audacity to change jobs. And oh by the way has only one season under his belt. No Midwest connections.
ACQUIRABILITY: Makes $1.6 million a year, so Michigan could pay the man. Unfortunately the conventional wisdom says there's little chance Michigan (or anyone) could pry him from Louisville given his long struggle to find a head job and Louisville's willingness to finally give it to him.
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Record: 14-11 in two years.
PROS: Dismantled Michigan with rushing-based option spread 'n' shred and would make Denard at home. Hot young name seems to be large chunk of Florida's monster run under Meyer since the offense took a huge step back after he left despite returning the Tebow Child. Found Manny Diaz and deployed him as the defensive ying to his yang.
CONS: Brief track record as a head coach. Only two years under his belt, so a lesser version of the Strong issue.
ACQUIRABILITY: Born in PA and went to school on Staten Island(!) so not exactly a born-and-bred Southerner. Hadn't ever coached in the South until Meyer went to Florida. Just got a large contract from MSU that now pays him 2.65 million, however, bumping him from last to sixth in the SEC.
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Record: 33-29 in five years
PROS: Young, enthusiastic former Northwestern legend sits next to "football" in the dictionary. Personal acquaintances describe him as "model of excellence." If it works out, could work out for a very long time indeed. Runs spread 'n' shred based on Randy Walker's that fits Denard like a glove.
CONS: Ripping someone away from their alma mater again would get things off on the wrong foot. Hasn't actually, you know, won that much. Even if you forgive him for his 4-8 opener because he was thrust into a terrible situation, since he's gone 6-6, 9-4, 8-5, and 7-6, and that was with epic buckets of luck on his side. He has outperformed his predecessor, FWIW.
ACQUIRABILITY: Salary is unknown because Northwestern is private. Michigan could add a lot to it. Even so, Fitzgerald is a NU icon and the CW is that he "hates" the rest of the Big Ten schools. Since a large portion of that hate rests in the fact he's never experienced what it's like to be at a Big Ten game where the majority of people are rooting for you I think he'd have to consider a move.
Guys Who Would Definitely Move And Not Be Villains
In Order Of Preference
- Dan Mullen – youth, experience in tough conference, fantastic track record as assistant, excellent DC hire, offensive continuity.
- Pat Fitzgerald – youth, Big Ten and Midwest ties galore, spotless media image, offensive continuity.
- Gary Patterson – most accomplished of the mid-major guys, should provide access to Texas recruiting.
- Charlie Strong – would rather roll the dice on him than the other two; DC experience in SEC seems at least as indicative of future success as HCs at massively advantaged schools.
- Chris Petersen – somewhat leery of Boise State's track record elsewhere..
- Kyle Wittingham – Wouldn't be displeased with anyone but I'd rather have other guys on the list.
Does Hoke approach any of these guys? Absolutely not. If he'd been a Michigan State assistant no one would have ever brought him up.