“He was on the other side of the court, screaming: ‘Good shot, Kev!’” Durant said, shaking his head in delight. “I’m thinking, this guy’s an All-American type of teammate right there.”
Michigan Basketball: So how's the tourney, man?
NCAA Tourney: You don't know? Of course, you don't know anything. There's a 65th team.
MBB: A 65th team?
Tourney: Yeah, there was this new conference that got an autobid and no one wanted to take an at-large away… they play in Dayton. It's ugly. It's usually some .500 team that won its conference tourney against the third-place SWAC team.
MBB: How's Billy Packer? He ever get over that midmajor thing?
MBB: That ever work out?
Tourney: Come on, man, Packer's heart is a lump of carbon. They fired that guy. Last I heard he was working at Pizza Hut.
MBB: So let's not go there.
MBB: So… you look good.
Tourney: Thank you, you may have, uh—
TEN YEARS, MAN! TEN! Where have you been for ten years?
MBB: I freaked out… hired Brian Ellerbe. Recruited Avery Queen and Kevin Gaines and Maurice Searight. Got put on probation for kids taking money from a Detroit gambling kingpin. Fired Ellerbe and hired a guy who took a Sweet 16 team that returned virtually everyone and added an NBA lottery pick to the NIT: Tommy Amaker. Recruited Anthony Wright and Kendrick Price and Reed Baker. Turned the ball over on every other offensive possession for six years. The one year I was going to be back everyone got injured and the starting point guard got suspended for some sort of domestic violence thing. Walk-ons started at point guard. Then I hired John Beilein. We have basically one guy taller than 6'5", we still have walk-ons at point guard, and we're here.
Tourney: Oh, sure. And Indiana hired Kelvin Sampson, too, and that's why they're mysteriously absent.
MBB: I think they did, actually.
Tourney: That's good… wow, yeah…
TEN YEARS, MAN— TEN— TEN YEARS! TEN! TEN YEAAAARS!
MBB: I freaked out, hired Brian Ellerbe, Recruited Avery Queen and Kevin Gaines and Maurice Seawright, got put on probation for kids taking money from a Detroit gambling kingpin, fired Ellerbe and hired a guy who took a Sweet 16 team that returned virtually everyone and added an NBA lottery pick to the NIT: Tommy Amaker. Recruited Anthony Wright and Kendrick Price and Reed Baker, turned the ball over on every other offensive possession for six years, the one year I was going to be back everyone got injured and the starting point guard got suspended for some sort of domestic violence thing, walk-ons started at point guard, then I hired John Beilein, we have basically one guy taller than 6'5", we still have walk-ons at point guard, and we're here.
THAT'S WHAT I DID.
Tourney: Can I join up?
Tourney: Come on, man… how's your mom?
"OP has a posse" from Clemson b-ball blog the OP.
What Say Tempo Free Stats?
Tempo free stats say we gon' die. Clemson's ACC performance on a possession-by-possession basis was better than anyone not named Duke or North Carolina:
Opp. Pace PPP PPP EM 1. North Carolina 74.7 1.16 1.01 +0.15 2. Duke 69.2 1.08 0.98 +0.10 3. Clemson 70.5 1.09 1.01 +0.08 4. Wake Forest 74.3 1.07 1.01 +0.06 5. Florida St. 69.1 1.00 0.98 +0.02
Meanwhile, Michigan was actually in the red in the Big Ten:
5. Ohio St. 60.8 1.07 1.05 +0.02 6. Minnesota 62.2 0.98 0.98 0.00 7. Michigan 61.0 1.01 1.03 -0.02 8. Penn St. 59.7 1.00 1.04 -0.04 9. Northwestern 59.6 1.03 1.07 -0.04
If you hold that the ACC and Big Ten are basically equivalent this year—generous—this bodes very unwell. I guess there's an argument that Clemson got way up there by whipping some teams badly and their week-in week-out performance is too erratic to take that number seriously, but, man, that's a big gap.
Kenpom also says this is a crappy draw for Michigan. It has Clemson the #22 team in all the land, which corresponds to a solid six seed in Tempo Free Ability Land, not the seven they got in reality. (This is not an attempt to imply the committee was wrong to make Clemson a 7; sometimes teams under- or over-perform their overall ability in the actual wins and losses. For example: Michigan, as you'll see.)
Michigan, meanwhile, is #49. If we took the top 65 teams by their ratings and broke them into seeds, this matchup would be a 6 versus a 13. Kenpom says we have a 32% chance of victory. This is considerably lower than the other ten seeds: Maryland has a 38% shot at Cal, Minnesota a 42% shot at Texas, and USC is actually a tempo-free favorite (65%) over BC.
Of course, these are just simple averages that take every possession in every game, adjust them for difficulty, and project future games based on that and a home/road adjustment. They don't take matchups into account.
Clemson Defense vs Michigan Offense
Turnovers. Clemson's major distinguishing characteristic is a 40-minutes-of-hell full press that sees Clemson force a butt-ton of turnovers: 24.1 percent of opponent possessions end without a shot. That's 16th nationally. You can see the costs of this strategy in a couple spots: a generous 2PT FG percentage allowed (46.1%; 89th) and horrible defensive rebounding.
Three-pointers. Bad news for Michigan: Clemson does a good job of protecting the three-point line. Only 28% of opponent's shots are threes, which is 26th nationally. They do allow a good percentage when opponents get a look.
Inside the arc. As mentioned, Clemson's two-point percentage allowed isn't good despite (yet another) huge block percentage: 14%, 14th nationally. They offset that with a healthy rate of fouls.
Specific People Who Are A Specific Height. The good news for Michigan is that Clemson's main lineup isn't Illinois huge or anything: the starting lineup has a 6'7" guy and a 6'9" guy but no 7-foot menace, despite the shotblocking prowess. Sims defied earlier predictions here about an inability to combat seriously large posts when he tore up Minnesota, but he tore up Iowa even worse and was then reduced to a wide array of outside shots against very large Illinois, none of which went down. I'm still much more comfortable when Sims is dealing with an opponent of approximately the same size.
The big question. Grady? Kelvin Grady, once Michigan's starting point guard, struggled badly in Michigan's ugly stretch midway through the season and got benched in favor of CJ Lee and David Merritt. Grady's limited but has one grade-A skill: handle. Attempting to press him is a futile waste of time. Merritt and Lee… eh, not so much. Beilein's not likely to start Grady or anything, but if Clemson forces a couple of ugly turnovers early he might get exhumed.
Michigan Defense vs Clemson Offense
How much of the Tiger offense is turnover based?
Opponent turnovers don't translate directly into offense unless it's a steal, which can lead to a fast break opportunity. This took forever and came out with bupkis, but it took forever so look at the graph you bastards:
That's a scatter plot of Clemson's steals against their points per possession. Correlation: eh, eyeballing it… just about zero. Where the pressing will tell is in Michigan's offense, it appears.
Their turnovers. Eh… they're mediocre, turning the ball over on exactly 20 percent of their possessions. That's about the national average. Michigan forces opponents into 21% turnovers.
Three-pointers. Clemson's Terrence Oglesby (the near-albino guy at right) is an excellent shooter hovering around 40% on his long range attempts; this is a major component of Clemson's excellent three-point percentage: 38%, which is 35th nationally. They take a slightly above-average number of them.
Michigan's been surprisingly effective at shutting down the three point line, though: 43rd in opponent makes and opponents get off a below-average number of triples. That might have something to do with…
Two pointers. Michigan is horrible at defending them, allowing opponents to shoot over 50%. Clemson is very good at getting them, making 51.4% of their attempts. Clemson's offense is mostly just good all around, with a high eFG and a very high offensive rebound percentage offsetting a crappy ability to get to the line and meh turnovers.
Past performance, future results. I kind of hate the "X-factor" as a concept/cliche, but there's an X-factor here in how the teams react to styles they haven't seen before. Michigan hasn't been pressed consistently all year; Clemson hasn't seen the Beilein offense or the 1-3-1. A lot of people are banking on Beilein's tendency to overperform in the NCAA tournament to see Michigan through, and that's usually attributed to his unusual style.
Here's some Debbie Downer: it could just be chance. Beilein's only made it a few times and has done well, but he's pulled a couple fortunate matchups, with Northwestern State blowing up Iowa before the Mountaineers had a chance; WVU also missed the three-seed in '05 and had an opportunity against an 11 in '98.
The other side of the coin: Clemson coach Oliver Purnell is 0-fer in five trips to the tourney:
- 1992: 15 seed Old Dominion, a 15-15 team is clunked by #2 Kentucky.
- 2000: 11 seed Dayton loses to 6 seed Purdue by one point.
- 2003: 4 seed Dayton loses to 13 seed Tulsa by 13.
- 2008: 5 seed Clemson loses to 12 seed Villanova by 6.
The 1992 and 2000 trips don't raise eyebrows, but Purnell's suffered two straight upsets at the hands of inferior competition.
There's a case the coaches' historical performance is more than a fluke.
Sliding. Though Michigan hasn't exactly burned up the nets of late, they are 3-2 in their last five with wins over Purdue and Minnesota. Clemson, meanwhile, has been in free fall: 1-4 to finish the season with the win over horrible Virginia and the final loss an opening-round ACC tournament matchup against last place Georgia Tech.
Common opponents. These do not bode well, but mostly because they encompass Clemson's best performances of the year:
- Duke: Michigan split a neutral/home pair; Clemson obliterated the Blue Devils by 27 at home.
- Maryland: Michigan lost a road game; Clemson obliterated the Terrapins by 29 at home.
- Illinois: Michigan went 1-2, with a ten point win at home and ten point losses on the road and in Indy. Clemson scraped a two point road win over the Illini.
- Savannah State: Clemson clubbed them; Michigan won in overtime, barely escaping a tourney-killing loss.
This will be a big test of the Beilein-as-impossible-to-prepare-for meme, because Michigan drew a tough, tough seven seed. Fellow 10 seed USC is staring at an ACC team that managed to lose to Harvard (which who does that, really) and finished 7th in conference when it comes to efficiency margin. In contrast, Michigan draws a Clemson team that, while sliding a bit, beat some good teams absolutely raw and is a solid third in conference, above 4 seed Wake Forest.
Meanwhile, Michigan is the team that finished 7th in efficiency margin in its conference, and you can tack on some uncomfortably close victories in the nonconference to that. I think Kenpom is about right here: Michigan is a decided underdog.
Probably no reason to be alarmed. This popped up over a busy weekend: that thread on the message board has validity to it. There was an incident at Scorekeeper's over the weekend between a few football players and (presumably gel-haired) ruffians. You can extrapolate the names from context if you want.
Anyway: a couple sources indicate that the incident is very unlikely to end up in court or anything; suspensions are therefore unlikely and the punishment will probably be handled by Barwis.
About whom eeee. Will Johnson remains the scariest bald 22 year old on the planet:
Defensive tackle Will Johnson turned in the day’s most-impressive performance, wowing the scouts and onlookers with an eye-popping and record-setting 47 reps of 225 pounds. The effort eclipsed anything that has been previously achieved by a Wolverine and broke what was believed to be the NFL Combine record, 42 reps set by former U-M left tackle Jake Long last season. Johnson also clocked 4.9 second in the 40-yard dash.
Johnson's given up on the receding hairline and gone for the wholly bald look, which usually makes white guys look like cancer patients. Johnson, however…
…eh, not so much.
Marve? More like No-rve. Miami transfer Robert Marve, he of the father that really hates Randy Shannon, has a final list of schools he's considering:
Former Miami quarterback Robert Marve, who left the Hurricanes after his redshirt freshman season, hopes to choose a new school after visiting Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, Texas Tech, South Florida and UCLA.
Uh, one of these schools is not like the other when it comes to "enjoys pocket passers": Michigan. Marve has to sit out next year and will be a redshirt junior when eligible, so bringing him in would be like taking a JUCO QB in the 2010 class. A pocket-passing JUCO who wasn't very good and has a tendency to blow up in a program-embarrassing fashion when not anointed the starter.
Michigan doesn't need drama or pocket passers who won't be eligible this year. I don't have any inside info here, I seriously doubt Marve even takes a visit, and if he ends up transferring to Michigan I'll eat my hat.
Goodbye, beautiful antagonist. Le Anne Schreiber's two-year run as ESPN ombudsman has come to an end. She was excellent, if almost always ignored, and her final column aptly sums up the frustrations many sports fans have with the Worldwide Monolith:
the message from fans that I have found hardest to impress on ESPN's executives and talent is this: The predictable day-after-day dominance on ESPN of certain marquee teams and players is making a lot of fans both heartsick and cynical.
The rest of it is right on and worth reading, especially if you're the guy who directed the Michigan-Iowa game and thought it would be a fantastic idea to miss game action for fake Tom Izzo hairstyles.
Dhani Jones: famous! True story: once when I was in college Dhani Jones came to a performance of the sketch comedy troupe I was writing for. At the time he had just had some sort of shoulder surgery and was beslinged. After the show I approached him, said hi, asked him how the arm was doing, and actually sort of patted him on the back, if I remember correctly. It was creepy. This was mortifying about 5 seconds after the fact, and remains so to this day.
Anyway, Jones is now on the TV, and if he ever mentions "random Albanians" that's probably my doing. Also he won't ever do that. But he'll do other things:
Jones, a former Michigan and current Cincinnati Bengals linebacker -- and bow tie designer -- brings a nice light touch to his new Travel Channel series, which premieres at 9 p.m. Monday. [uh… yesterday.]
In future weeks, he'll take on nine more sports, including rugby in England, dragon boat racing in Singapore, Schwingen wrestling in Switzerland, hurling in Ireland and jai alai in Spain, while sampling the local culture in beautifully shot travelogues.
"They're all amazing sports," Jones said. "It's hard to say which one I enjoyed more than the others. Some are more intense than others, some are more enjoyable, but they all were life-changing."
Jones rugby exploits for the show were featured here a while back.
Etc.: Wojo on Manny and Sims.
Michigan's junior day netted a few commitments while this site was busy hoping the world didn't cave in the day before the NCAA tournament was selected.
Antonio Kinard is a 6'4", 200 pound linebacker from Youngstown Ohio. He committed to Michigan over the weekend. The details:
It's too early for all but the most preliminary rankings; basically all we have to go on is that he's not in Rivals' initial top 250. He's #22 in the state to Ohio High magazine, for whatever that's worth.
Just the one from Michigan, with that issued shortly after Signing Day. FWIW, in mid-February a BP mod asserted he was likely to receive an OSU offer within a week or so; that apparently did not transpire. Penn State and WVU may have been on the verge.
ESPN says 86 tackles and 6 sacks a year ago.
FAKE 40 TIME
We have two times here, one of which might not be fake:
Kinard combines size with speed. He runs the 40-yard dash in 4.6 seconds and is also on the Liberty track team. He has run the 200 meters in 22.8 seconds and also long jumps.
Video from Scouting Ohio.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Well, the evidence here is flimsier than normal: there's no scouting reports and only one ranking, that from a local, not national source. Preliminary indications—the Ohio High ranking and lack of other offers—are that Kinard will be a three-star sort. If the potential Penn State and Ohio State offers were
While that's not ideal, Michigan was familiar with Kinard after recruiting a couple of his Youngstown Liberty teammates and was quick to offer, so they obviously thought he was a talent they shouldn't wait on. One thing seems assured: a redshirt. Kinard is 6'4" and 200 pounds, so unless he puts on a ton of weight this year he'll need to bulk up some once he arrives if he's going to be effective.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
It's unclear what position Kinard is slotted in: it could be linebacker either inside or outside or DE—as Varsity Blue notes, Greg Robinson's schemes often deploy a "spinner" who's a hybrid DE/OLB. Kinard's also the first defensive commit of any sort, so he won't affect Michigan's recruiting going forward. They'll still pursue TX LB Caleb Lavey and so forth and so on.
All right: we're pretty much screwed. There is a tiny chance we can pass Notre Dame if Michigan wins the CCHA playoffs and Notre Dame gets swept at the Joe. Even in that situation (with all higher seeds winning other games) You Are The Committee shows Notre Dame taking the comparison, but the RPI edge there is tiny and could be shoved over to Michigan if a few other games go Michigan's way. (St. Lawrence, Minnesota, and Wisconsin would help out by winning, as that pushes Michigan's RPI up.)
So: have Michigan win twice, have one of the country's best teams lose to Alaska and Northern Michigan, and hope for favorable results in other conference tournaments. The chances are griiiiiim.
As for the faint hope some PWR wackiness costs ND a couple other comparisons, that's dead, too. ND's got the perfect scenario as far as TUCs go right now—they're a whopping 4-0 against Northern, which is now hanging by a thread as a TUC—and is up to 10-5 in that category, which is very strong. ND can't lose (metaphorically) against Northern: win and they, you know, win. Lose and Northern keeps its TUC status and ND gets to keep its 4-1 record against them.
Well, the good news is I can't get Michigan any lower than fourth unless they get swept at the Joe and Northeastern wins Hockey East, or they split and both Northwestern and Denver win their conference tournaments. YATC is kind of clunky and I haven't tested all possible scenarios, but Michigan's #1 seed seems 80% likely.
Then you've got a pretty weird scenario developing at the bottom of the bracket: CHA qualifier Bemidji State is the usual grab-bag foe you really want to play in the first round and will get slotted against BU. But Air Force, if it wins its conference tournament, is likely to be #13 or #14 in the PWR. IE: above the last at-large bid, possibly above two. What would the committee do in that situation?
No offense to Air Force, but they're an Atlantic Hockey team that's freakin' 30th in KRACH. If they qualify they are clearly the second most desirable first round opponent and should, by rights, be slotted against ND. But if they go by strict PWR Air Force would get matched up against… probably us, since it looks highly likely that one of the four-seeds is going to be Miami, who would get matched up with North Dakota or Vermont or whoever because they're going to protect BU and the Redhawks can't play a CCHA team.
It would be the sweetest poetic justice if Michigan got shafted out of the #2 seed only to draw that second auto-bid team and Notre Dame got Lowell or Yale or Duluth. We'd still be getting shipped, unfortunately.
3/13/2009 – Michigan 5, Western Michigan 2 – 27-10-0, 20-8 CCHA
3/14/2009 – Michigan 6, Western Michigan 1 – 28-10-0, 20-8 CCHA
This weekend's hockey series featured huge stretches of play so dominating that the above scoreboard resulted. That is the beginning of the first intermission. Michigan has three goals and 21 shots. Western has zero goals and zero shots.
Western's first shot would come at the beginning of the second when a Bronco forward, clearly instructed to get Western on the board, took a slapper from outside the blueline. It was going high, but they counted it anyway. The next shot was a clearance that dribbled in on Hogan, again from outside the blueline. That counted too: Michigan's official scorer was giving Hogan the full Jeff Lerg treatment out of pity to the visitors. By my count, the first actual shot Western launched on Hogan—certainly the first that originated from the offensive zone—came with 15:40 left in the second.
It was that kind of weekend. Total shots: 103 for Michigan and 41 for Western. Only Riley Gill's best Dominic Hasek impression kept Western from ceding 20 goals on the weekend.
So, again: this team is pretty freakin' good. They've pushed their recent non-crazy-goal-controversy record out to 19-1 since late November. Mark Mitera has been making excellent outlet passes and hasn't seemed out of place since an error that lead to Ferris State's first and only goal of the Friday game two weeks ago. They were 15-1 in NCGC games before they added last year's defenseman of the year. They're scratching an NHL draft pick every night. Our third defense pairing is either Steve Kampfer and Brandon Burlon or Tristin Llewellyn and Chris Summers, either of which pairings would be the #1 pair for any CCHA team other than Notre Dame.
When Michigan did anything other than dominate it was more because they were bored and hadn't spent any time in the defensive zone in two weeks and weren't quite sure what you were supposed to do. I am a little concerned that Michigan spends 80% of its time in the offensive zone because it leads to breakdowns and carelessness in their own end. This is a pretty good concern to have, all things considered.
Bullets Western left in the chamber:
- Holy crap was Carl Hagelin out of his mind this weekend. He singlehandedly dominated the penalty-kill, skated through the opposition like it wasn't there, and did his usual demonic backchecking. The Friday night ENG was justice for an outstanding performance. Two borks up.
- Northern Michigan upset Miami to reach the Joe, which improves Michigan's draw (they get Alaska) but hurts them in other ways: Michigan's SOS goes down as they played Miami four times, and Northern is now a TUC which brings M's 1-1 record against them into play.
- We wanted OSU to win the other series; they did not. Bizarrely, since we play now Alaska we want them to stay a TUC if we beat them since 2-1 is good for our overall percentage in that category.
- It doesn't hurt Michigan nearly as much as it does Miami, which is now the final team in the tourney and is vulnerable to an unexpected winner in any of the power conferences.
- I deeply regret that we were not allowed to trade Scooter and a recruit to be named later for Gill's services during the playoff run. That guy was insane both nights, which brings his record for insanity at Yost up to 3/3 on the year, as he was insane in a game Michigan totally dominated and contrived to lose 2-1 when Western conjured two late goals out of deflections and screening. About halfway through the Saturday game people around me started chanting "goalie-goalie" during the Temptation goalie-sieve chant, and, like, yeah. At some point Gill flat robbed Aaron Palushaj to the point where he was compelled to explain just how the hell the puck didn't go in the net to his linemates.
Gill's got a .920 save percentage, which is impressive but only 17th nationally. In context it's astounding, though. This is Western Michigan we're talking about here, always the worst defensive team in the league under Jim Culhane. He probably sees more grade-A rubber in a game than one of Mason's pedestrian .940 guys (Alban, Blackburn, etc) saw in a year; every Western goalie I've ever checked stats of is languishing around .885 or something. I'm sure Alaska's Chad Johnson is pretty good with his .939, but, man, how did Gill get left off the All CCHA Team for Jeff Lerg?
- Hey: they finally got a goal review right! Michigan's third-period goal to go up 4-2 was waved off by McInchak for no apparent reason—it was a virtual replay of the waved off OSU goal—but reviewed and declared good, largely because Shegos got in the box and was like "dude, that's his chest." Good on you, Shegos. Also, the look on Shegos' face—"not this s--- again"—was priceless.
- Last time we saw Shegos, by the way, he was with Langseth. This time no Langseth. Did he get busted down to linesman again? Or did they just tighten the crews because there were only four series to do this weekend instead of the usual six?
- I don't think we can pass ND, but I'll check.
3/16/2009 – Michigan 1, Decade Of Misery 0 … ok, 11.
So who else had a little heart attack when Arizona made the field and Wisconsin popped up as a twelve seed? I spent most of the past month reassuring everyone, including myself, that 9-9 and 1-1 in the Big Ten tourney would be good enough. But as 8, 9, 10, and 11 seeds rolled off the board with Michigan conspicuously absent, irrational concern rose.
There weren't nearly enough crazy bids deployed for Michigan to come under any threat whatsoever. As soon as two things went right on Saturday—which was about 5 PM—Michigan was in. Everyone everywhere told us so. But paranoia is a powerful thing.
Unruly sections of my brain busied themselves constructing scenarios in which the selection committee had managed to discount the Big Ten's impressive body of work outside of the conference. They'd been listening to Digger Phelps. They were going to put Providence and Notre Dame and Georgetown in. Corroboration: Mike Slive of the SEC was the head of the committee. Corroboration: Ohio State's athletic director was a member. Something could have gone wrong.
Obviously this is ridiculous, but they left us as late as possible and you can only stare at Brian/Greg/Burt Gumbel, whichever it was, so long without having your mind wander towards horrible apocalyptic events.
So when the time came…
…that reaction seemed totally appropriate. Most of the time it comes off as silly; the boredom expressed by Kansas and Pittsburgh is more reasonable than what appeared to be the entire state of North Dakota losing its mind when it found out which major conference team—the aforementioned Kansas—was highly likely to bludgeon it into submission. NDSU knew it was in. Not even the world's most inexplicable and pointless vast SEC/Ohio State conspiracy could keep the Bison out. I mean, it guess it's cool for you guys to be on TV, but it's not like there was any suspense.
The closest analogue I can think of is the reaction when a rock star says "HELLO SPRINGTON!" and the arena goes "OH MY GOD HE'S IN SPRINGTON I AM JUST REALIZING THIS NOW." Usually large groups of people assembled in a gym to be excited about something are going to be excited about something stupid. Lord knows I won't feel that way.
Ten minutes later I was again revealed to be a big huge hypocrite. Whatever. That happens all the time. Michigan making the tournament does not. Here's to future boredom with these things, and current joy.
Sandy, tired, camel-riding, joyous bullets:
- HT UMHoops for the celebration video.
- Crisler's reaction is on the front page of the Washington Post.
- A few things jumped out at me during the seedings: 1) Ohio State in Dayton against a #1 seed? Congratulations, Louisville, on your reward. 2) Siena got a 9; they were definitely in anyway. Not so much Utah State and their 11.
- Season ticket holders can get tickets online.
- At least a couple writers have Michigan as one of their tourney sleepers. Gary Parrish names Michigan one of two double-digit seeds with the best chance to make the Sweet 16. (USC is the other, and is also a ten seed. As far as double-digit seed upset predictions go that's as chalk as you can get.)
- The official site recaps Beilein's day: he goes to St. Thomas! Coffee from Caribou! He "meets family" at Bar Louie and probably enjoys a well-deserved, slightly overpriced drink!
This is going to be a little Simmonsy, but: friend of blog Domicile wanted a Cake Wrecks-inspired celebratory cake and the MGoGirlfriend obliged:
We're in. Death to Clemson.
They made us wait, didn't they? Bastards.
UPDATE: Oh, yeah:
And you can't have one without the other…
One last Bubble Watch just to reassure everyone. (UPDATED: 6:30 PM)
When we first looked at the bubble after the Minnesota game, we had between ten and sixteen spots to give out. Since that time, the Horizon League has given out an extra autobid, the Big 12 has allowed Baylor to run to the tourney final, the A-10 has come down to Temple and Duquense, and USC has made the Pac-10 final. San Diego State has made the Mountain West final. Maryland beat Wake Forest, too.
That's a lot of ugly stuff, right there, so let's just make sure. Everyone Pretty Definitively Below Michigan from last time remains there. In addition, Big Huge Tourney Run participants are down to Maryland and Temple, eliminating VT, Miami, Rhode Island, Kansas State, and Providence.
Meanwhile, on the Bubble Proper South Carolina and Florida both lost in opening-round games of the SEC tournament and are definitely not getting in over Michigan, or probably at all. Minnesota and Penn State both went 1-1 at the Big Ten Tournament like Michigan and should remain behind M in the pecking order. Arizona lost an important game against Arizona State and is now widely regarded the last team in. St Mary's got blown out by Gonzaga in the WCC final. Siena won its autobid. New Mexico and UNLV blew it and are out. All of these teams are not threats to Michigan's bid. Just as much spectacularly good stuff happened as unexpectedly bad.
Three teams above Michigan to start took hits, with Texas A&M losing to Texas Tech, Dayton losing to Duquense, and Wisconsin losing to Ohio State. I don't think any are in danger.
So what now
If we count the above three teams as locks still, we have six bids left. These teams could leap in front of Michigan in the pecking order:
The A-10 Winner. Temple may have an at-large case now but it won't be strong enough to pass Michigan should they lose to Duquense in the A-10 final.
That one will happen. So really we have five bids and the following teams that could leap M:
Tulsa. If they beat Memphis. Update: Memphis destroys Tulsa.
Mississippi State or
Auburn. If they win the SEC. Update: Mississippi State bashes LSU and is into the final; Auburn is out and you're rooting for Tennessee tomorrow. Baylor. If they win the Big 12. Update: lost to Missouri and is out.
USC. If they win the Pac-10. Update: USC in.
Maryland. If they win the ACC, or maybe if they get to the final. Update: Maryland lost to Duke; they may get in but it won't be at our expense. San Diego State. If they win the WAC, and possibly if they don't. Update: lost to Utah.
Utah State? If they don't win their autobid tonight at ten I have no idea how the committee will handle a 29-5 team with no good wins.
That's seven teams, as you can see, for five bids. If any five of these teams pull off the string of upsets, Michigan can get locked out. How likely is that? Not very, as you're asking for the vast majority of some serious upsets to come to fruition. But it is still faintly possible.
So, your final rootin' guide:
- Memphis over Tulsa, now, CBS.
- LSU over Mississippi State, ESPN2, 1PM.
- Tennessee over Auburn, ESPN2, 3:15 PM
- Duke over Maryland, ESPN, 4 PM
- Missouri over Baylor, ESPN, 6 PM
- Utah over San Diego State, 7PM
- Temple over Duquense, 6PM ESPN2
- Arizona State over USC, 6PM CBS
- Utah State over Nevada, 10PM ESPN2
Let's not blow this, universe.
UPDATE: With Duke and Memphis wins, Michigan should be safe. You're rooting for the above still just to be safe.
UPDATE UPDATE: Baylor and San Diego State go down, which knocks Baylor out and SDSU behind Michigan. No worries: they're in.
|Detroit, Michigan - 6'5" 317|
|Scout||5*, #6 DT, #35 overall|
|Rivals||5*, #5 DT, #26 overall|
|ESPN||79, #21 OT|
|Other Suitors||Miami, LSU, Alabama, Florida|
|Chaos. Otters. Hello.|
|Notes||Early enrollee. Cass Tech.|
Will Campbell is an extremely large, extremely nerve-wracking person in an extremely silly getup above. (He's "Thor"; there was some photoshoot with Michigan high school players themed to be comic book heroes. Which, guy who came up with that idea: thank you.) Here is a silly dance:
That is the Will Campbell commit dance, which he only executed after arriving at the Army All-American game and declaring Michigan to be off his list and LSU his leader. Let's just get it out of the way: yes, it is a little annoying that Campbell decided he needed to give me and a lot of other people a heart attack for purposes of self-glorification. Kids these days, lawn, baggy pants and the goo-goo eyeball glasses drinking their milkshakes and bler bler bler. If it makes you feel any better, Campbell seems like a lighthearted giant a la Terrance Taylor, not a raging narcissist. Or at least no more of a raging narcissist than the average enormous muscle-bound 18-year-old who is 100% sure he's going to the NFL.
Also something that should make you feel better are salivating reports like so from the Army All-American game:
6-0/310, Detroit (Mich.) Cass Tech
He is a full grown man out on the gridiron even when compared to some of the nation's best offensive and defensive linemen. Most of the centers really struggled with the snap for two reasons - one they are new at it and two Campbell was bringing the most powerful bull rush they have ever seen. Just ask Nick Alajajian what it feels like to keep this future college star from getting into the backfield.
Campbell actually played both ways in that game:
"He's enormous, he's explosive and he's really athletic for a big guy," Smith said. "He's a fast learner. He's a fun-spirited kid who loves the game and that's why we're able to move him on both sides of the ball because he can pick it up. He just enjoys playing the game."
Though he avoided some things:
Campbell is one of the biggest players in the Army game, but he's apparently not ready for the roller coasters when the teams visit Six Flags on Tuesday night.
"There's a weight limit on those things," he said. "I might be on the tea cups."
When it was over, Rivals named him the second-strongest DT in the country and the top run-stuffer. It's hard for defensive tackles to make a big impact at the Army game itself, but Campbell did swallow a couple guys whole. More from his Army AA coach:
"Campbell is a true Warren Sapp kind of athlete," Smith said. "I saw him out there catching punts, catching passes and then he's making all those tackles on the defensive line. He's fast, he's strong, athletic and he's big."
Ok, scouts and a particular high school coach think he's a beast. That's nice. Now add the rest of college football to the list:
DT William Campbell, Detroit Cass Tech: LSU and Miami are getting official visits, but USC seemingly has this one right. The Trojans aren't pushing hard for Campbell despite his talent because they seem to be hearing what I am hearing: Campbell will end up at Michigan in the end.
A stat update from halfway through the season has some eyepopping numbers:
The 6-foot-5, 315-pounder anchors both lines for the Technicians and has proven unbeatable in one-on-one situations. That's why teams have consistently double-, and at times triple-teamed him. Despite all of that attention, he has managed to rack up 25 tackles, including 12 for loss and nine sacks, while also forcing two fumbles. He has been the engine for a defense that has pitched three shutouts in five games and given up only 13 points all year.
Campbell ended up tacking on officials to Florida and Alabama. Let's play Jeopardy(!). LSU, Florida, Miami, USC, and Alabama. What are five schools that desperately wanted to add Campbell to their class? Correct. We would also have accepted "a short list of the top five recruiting schools in the country." Everyone wanted the guy. (Perhaps the scariest mind-juju yet in USC recruiting was their decision to avoid Campbell simply because they didn't think there was much chance to land him. 1) Prescient. 2) Who does that? USC does.)
It is worth noting the dissenting vote from ESPN, which said he was a pretty good prospect but not the budding superstar the other two sites did:
We recognize he has plenty of talent, but he fell short of a 150 grade at this time. We also feel he is not a defensive lineman at the college level -- he will be a better fit on offense. He reminds us of former Cass Tech prospect Joseph Barksdale, a defensive tackle prospect who will be playing offensive tackle this year for LSU. Campbell may enter college as a defensive tackle, but we think, much like Barksdale, he will end up on offense. Campbell is a big, but raw prospect who needs to keep developing his game.
I've said this before, but a recap: the difference between Barksdale and Campbell is that a lot of colleges, including Michigan, were recruiting Barksdale as a tackle—that was part of the rift between he and Michigan—while Campbell was recruited almost exclusively as a defensive tackle. Also, while ESPN ended up right about Barksdale's collegiate position they were still wrong to rank him so low: Barksdale became LSU's starting right tackle as a true sophomore and is on track to be an excellent three-year starter.
Also detrimental to ESPN's cause here is their directive to totally ignore the Army game (which also them to underrate Justin Turner after his dynamite performance there). Campbell showed and impressed, as noted above, and justified his position high atop the Scout and Rivals lists.
Ironically, it was ESPN that provided the picture that had everyone thinking "schwing" or "oh god if he goes to LSU I'm going to shoot myself"; let it stand as Will Campbell's image until such time as it's replaced by one with a winged helmet:
Okay, so: five-star recruit with offers from everyone at a position where there is one obvious starter—sophomore Mike Martin—and then a Canadian who didn't see much time at all last year and people switching positions from defensive end or even fullback. Also the above picture. Initiate the Thor era now?
Eh… sort of. As is often the case with enormous manbeasts that you could slice open with a light saber and use as an emergency tent without them so much as noticing, Campbell has some weight issues. And running issues:
"The hardest part is the running," he said. "The first day, we ran like eight gassers and like eight 40's. That just killed me. That was the hardest."
Campbell, who is listed by Michigan at 6 feet, 5 inches and 317 pounds, said he actually weighs 335 pounds, thanks to too much eating and inactivity before arriving in Ann Arbor. Besides shedding 20 pounds, Campbell wants to put himself in position to be a starter this season.
But he's gon' work:
"I'm going to work hard, there's no doubt about that," Campbell said. "If I work hard enough, most likely I will be starting."
Concerns about raw technique are almost definitely legit, as Campbell could throw anyone in the PSL into the ballcarrier without learning about leverage. His early enrollment will help with both that and his conditioning; chances are he is not NFL ready just yet. A year of promise beckons; it's just too bad there's no one in front of him to take the tough minutes.
Etc.: He wants #73 and knows who Zoltan is.
Why Gabe Watson? Watson was an in-state man-mountain rated about where Campbell is; Watson also had some weight issues and nice-guy issues, and a lot of people thought he didn't quite live up to his rating, which is a little silly since he was two-time all Big Ten and is an NFL starter. Also, Campbell appears to be an enormous two-gap space-eater, who's not going to get after the passer much, which makes him more in the Watson mold than the Branch mold.
Guru Reliability: Well, outside of ESPN: high. All-star game and multiple combine appearances, and offers up the wazoo.
General Excitement Level: Very high. Ratings + offers = very high likelihood to be a multi-year starter and NFL draft pick.
Projection: Immediately into the defensive tackle rotation, probably behind Sagesse to start. Potentially works his way into a starting job by the end of the year; sophomore through senior year he should be somewhere between Watson and what Watson could have been if he was mean.