nice pits, 40
The low rumble that OHIO(!!!) decommit Caris Levert was favoring Michigan increased its intensity recently. Levert visited, was offered, and now Michigan seems far ahead of the pack. Football commit and Pickerington Central teammate Taco Charlton offered this less than cryptic tweet up in response to a question about whether he was recruiting Levert to M:
Also there is this:
Michigan is goina love Pickerington Central athletes!!!haha that's all I gota say.
Do high school kids turn autocorrect off? They must. Otherwise their tweets would read "Michigan is tomato love Thanksgiving Central athletes."
Sam Webb says that Ohio sources at Spiece were saying the usual things about blowing people away, and then brought out the old "gut feeling." Dollars to donuts Levert is in the fold in the next couple weeks.
How are we feeling about this? A longer re-recruiting here would have helped clarify things. If Levert grabbed a Purdue offer to go with Michigan, Dayton, and (presumably) Illinois that would be an excellent signal that Levert is a high-major guy who slipped under the radar. Illinois's recruiting class is now Nobody, but Purdue is doing pretty well for themselves. But we don't have that data.
Without it we'll have to fall back on Beilein's talent evaluation, which okay yeah has not been nearly as great when we're talking about late additions. What separates Levert from the Colton Christians is his production. Guy drove his team to a state title. Also, John Groce did pretty well for himself picking up under-the-radar Ohio dudes. I'm also just like…
JJHuddle Players of the Year
2012: Caris Levert, Pickerington Central (Ohio)
2011: Trey Burke, Northland (Michigan)
2010: Jared Sullinger, Northland (Ohio State)
2009: Jared Sullinger, Northland (Ohio State)
2008: William Buford, Toledo Libbey (Ohio State) & B.J. Mullens, Canal Winchester (Ohio State/Charlotte Bobcats)
2007: Jon Diebler, Upper Sandusky (Ohio State)
…I will take a guy on that list all day.
From a roster standpoint it makes sense. Levert is a 2/3 who Michigan probably doesn't need right away but could step in for major minutes as early as next year if Tim Hardaway Jr or Glenn Robinson III bolts for the NBA. Beilein's finding out that backup plans are nice to have.
Grad Year Name
Assuming Levert commits, Michigan can still issue another 2012 scholarship. Usual spiel about 2013 commits creating a bit of a crunch and statement that a grad-year guy would be ideal. Michigan's deployment of both their long-term scholarship options makes that spot a lot less attractive, though, and at this point it would be a longshot. Wright State grad-year transfer Julius Mays did throw Michigan on the end of a high-end five team list a few days ago:
Mays told CBSSports.com that his initial list consists of Purdue, Michigan State, Kentucky, Cincinnati and possibly Michigan.
Those are some heavy hitters, and Michigan is fifth of five. If interest picks up between the two parties, it looks like Mays can really play. He was high-usage starter for Raiders last year who hit 42% from three, got to the line quite a bit, and had a good assist rate. A 43% shooting percentage from inside the arc is the only drawback. Even with the recent additions, it's not hard to envision Mays sucking up some of the minutes earmarked for Albrecht, Stauskas, and Vogrich to get to 20-25 per game. That could be attractive, but probably not as attractive as being a go-to-guy at Purdue.
2014 Caring Meter: Incremented
I may be adding IL SF Keita Bates-Diop to the list of people from the year 3000 I am interested in hearing about. Bates-Diop just made the new Rivals 2014(!) top 50 and is stopping in at the place all people who want an early Michigan offer they may hop on immediately do:
A silky smooth forward who can play some in the high post, Bates-Diop's future is on the wing and he wields one of the smoothest, most accurate jump shots in the sophomore class. More than just a shooter, the 6-foot-7 forward has length, ball skills and is a graceful athlete who is light on his feet and plays with a high level of intelligence.
Bates-Diop went for 26 in an afternoon game and did so without needing a bunch of shots.
"My shot felt good out there today," Bates-Diop told Rivals.com. 'I feel like I've had a good spring. I'm just trying to play hard and show what I can do."
Major college basketball programs have already taken notice of what Bates-Diop is doing and the Normal (Ill.) University product has already drawn offers from Purdue, DePaul and Northwestern while he's getting interest from Michigan - where he will take an unofficial visit in June for its elite camp - Illinois, Wisconsin, Louisville, Oklahoma State and others.
You may remember last June's elite camp from such events as "entire 2013 class commits." You know Beilein is going to slap on some cologne and bring flowers for a 6'7" shooter with ball skills and athleticism.
By request, recruiting rankings front-paged to bump that creepy picture off the top. Given the glut of early commitments in the class of 2013, it was inevitable that we'd start to see some recruits have a change of heart. It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that Ohio State suffered a couple of decommits this week, though the circumstances surrounding Alex Anzalone's decision are obviously highly unusual. Other than then happenings in Columbus, nothing changed at the top of the board, though there were several pickups by teams in the middle of the pack. Changes since the last rankings:
4-29-12: Wisconsin picks up Chikwe Obasih.
4-30-12: Illinois picks up Merrick Jackson.
5-1-12: Lewis Neal decommits from Ohio State. Illinois picks up Jarrod Clements. Northwestern picks up Blake King.
5-3-12: Wisconsin picks up Jack Keeler.
5-5-12: Alex Anzalone decommits from Ohio State. Nebraska picks up Christian Lacouture. Illinois picks up Austin Schmidt.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||ESPN Avg||Avg Avg^|
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
On to the full data after the jump.
Today's recruiting roundup addresses some disturbing Twitter-related news, the recruitments of Ty Isaac and Henry Poggi, a pair of new 2013 offers, and a way-too-early top 25 for the class of 2014.
On Twitter and Recruits
Prepare to be creeped out:
Ohio State has learned that a convicted sex offender from Kentucky has made contact with Buckeyes student-athletes both in-person and through social media websites.
The Lantern obtained a Friday email that was sent from OSU athletic director for compliance Doug Archie informing Buckeye student-athletes that the university is aware of photographs OSU players have taken with Charles Eric Waugh, 31, a man listed on Kentucky’s sex offender registry, Archie said in the email.
"The University has become aware that an individual who is listed on Kentucky's sex offender registry has recently been seen in pictures with our student-athletes," Archie said in the mail, which was preceded by a warning text to student athletes.
Land-Grant Holyland has further details, including screencaps of Waugh tweeting inspirational quotes to Ohio State players and recruits and a photograph of him with 2013 recruits Alex Anzalone, Joey Bosa, and Mike Heuerman (above). Waugh is a registered sex offender—and currently on probation—because he was convicted in 2007 of "five counts of possession of matter portraying sexual performances by minors." As Land-Grant Holyland points out, Waugh could be in deep trouble, as the terms of his probation explicitly prohibit him from using any social media platform that allows access to minors, which is obviously the case with Twitter.
What strikes me most about the whole ordeal, however, is that several people—including a pair of current Buckeye players—came to Waugh's defense when he was called out by LGH on Twitter for sending quotes to underage kids and "pandering for [retweets]." This happened prior to the revelation that he was a sex offender, but I still find it deeply worrisome. One of the most prevalent arguments I see when people defend interacting with high school recruits through social media is that many of the recruits enjoy those interactions, so they're justified. I can't agree with that logic—there's a reason most high school kids can't vote, and it has to do with gaining a proper understanding of the world around them.
I'm not saying people shouldn't ever follow recruits; given the nature of my job, that would be hypocritical. I honestly don't see why people want to do so—the amount of relevant news gained is dwarfed in comparison to the sheer volume of high school drama, tweets with far too much information, and life musings of high schoolers—but that's your prerogative. When the line is crossed to interacting with recruits, however, it becomes a problem; even if you can't see an issue with chatting with a high school kid you don't know, there is the fact that NCAA violations are being committed at an alarming rate. I've had people ask me to tweet at recruits and encourage them to go to Michigan, which not only violates NCAA rules and the principles of journalistic integrity, but is also asking me to insert myself into a life decision for which I have no business giving input.
I realize that I'm speaking to a small fraction of the blog's readership, and also that there are a large number of fans who won't see this. But things will change soon—this isn't the first or last time that recruits will unwittingly interact with a sex offender, to put it bluntly—and I can't foresee fans having such unfettered access to recruits remaining the norm. Get ahead of the curve, remember that you're dealing with high school kids, and understand that it isn't your job to tell these young men what they should do with their lives. Brady Hoke will handle recruiting just fine without you.
(As for Facebook, by the way: don't. Just don't. Please don't make me list the reasons why you shouldn't "friend" recruits.)
Isaac Visiting USC, More 2013 News
IL RB Ty Isaac will take his second trip to USC this weekend, and according to Sam Webb he'll be accompanied by his mother ($). While I still think Michigan has the edge in his recruitment—his mother indicated that another visit to Ann Arbor is likely—this does signal that USC is a legitimate contender, perhaps moreso than Notre Dame. Isaac does ask that people not read too much into the trip, however:
“At this point (people) are going to find out (about the visit) anyway,” he said. “They’re going to have writers out there that hear that I’m out there, and they’re going to write about it. I can’t control that. I knew I had it set up for about two weeks and I kind of didn’t want to say right when I knew because you know how some of these guys on the internet are. They go crazy… like two visits means a commitment. But it’s tough… you have to get out and see these places. Just because it’s far away doesn’t mean it should be a one visit type deal. I’ve been a lot of places multiple times, so we’re just checking it out again.”
Please don't let Isaac doing his due diligence cause panic(!) in the comments. Also, as he has said in the past, Isaac plans to make his decision before the fall.
Rivals caught up with MD DT Henry Poggi after his visit to Alabama, and he played things close to the vest, abstaining from naming any leaders ($). He's working on setting his first visit to Penn State, however, and also is considering trips to Texas A&M and Cal. Given that he's taken three trips each to Michigan and Alabama, I wouldn't expect those schools to become a threat unless he takes return visits.
According to TomVH, Michigan sent out offers to two new prospects ($) this week in Fort Lauderdale (FL) University School of Nova South teammates WR Jordan Cunningham and DT Maquedius Bain. Cunningham is strangely listed at either 6'1" or 6'3" and makes the top 150 on both Rivals and ESPN, though he garners three-star ratings from Scout and 247. MAQUEDIUS BAIN (yes, he gets the all-caps treatment) is currently a Florida State commit, but he could possibly open up his recruitment; he's in the top 100 on both Scout and ESPN, but also has three stars on two sites.
Neither offer should come as a surprise considering Michigan's needs, especially with how things are trending at wide receiver. While things look good for Laquon Treadwell, there's still along way to go before he decides. Meanwhile, TX WR Eldridge Massington just committed to USC this afternoon ($, info in header). Fellow TX WR Marcell Ateman committed to Oklahoma State on Wednesday. NC WR Uriah LeMay cut his list down to ten ($), and it doesn't include the Wolverines. With two more receivers a near-necessity for rounding out the class, don't be surprised if Michigan goes hard after some new names on the recruiting trail.
Quickly: Sam Webb's DetNews feature this week is on CA ATH Elijah Qualls, who's trimmed down his current list to Washington, Oregon State, Arizona, Nebraska, California, Michigan, Iowa State and UCLA, though USC, Oklahoma, and Oregon could just into the mix if they offer. He's considering using an official visit to check out Ann Arbor. Michigan added a quarterback for the 2012 class, picking up Detroit Jesuit's Brian Cleary as a preferred walk-on.
Camps! Plus 2014 Updates
It's a big weekend for Michigan commits, as Columbus will host an Elite11 regional today then the Nike Football Training Camp on Saturday. Shane Morris will try to earn a spot in the Elite11 finals after failing to do so at the Dallas regional last month, though he'll face stiff competition from Stanford commit Ryan Burns (ESPN's #17 overall recruit) and others.
The NFTC will play host to commits Jourdan Lewis, Taco Charlton, Khalid Hill, David Dawson, and Mike McCray, who will attempt to raise their stock with strong camp performances. Scout's Allen Trieu has an extensive free preview; uncommitted recruits of note include Cass Tech DT Kenton Gibbs (no M offer), IN DT Darius Latham (offer), and a host of 2014 prospects, including MI WR Damon Webb, OH WR Thaddeus Snodgrass, MI LB Deon Drake, MI LB Gary Hosey, MI LB William White, and MI RB Lorenzo Collins. I know TomVH and Chantel Jennings will be there, as will the guys from Tremendous, so there will be no shortage of coverage on the event next week.
247 released a (very) early top 25 for the class of 2014, and several players holding Michigan offers made the list, including top overall prospect VA DT Da'Shawn Hand. Other offerees: NJ CB Jabrill Peppers (#3), MD OT Damian Prince (#13), NC OT Bentley Spain (#17), DC CB Jalen Tabor (#20), and MI DE Malik McDowell (#23). [EDIT: Tim Sullivan just posted over on The Fort (and said I could pass this along) that Peppers doesn't yet hold a Michigan offer, despite statements Peppers has made to the contrary. His coach confirms that Peppers doesn't have an offer at the moment.]
Peppers named a top six this week that includes Michigan, and he revealed to 247 that he grew up as a fan of the Wolverines ($). Joining the Wolverines are Stanford, USC, Miami (YTM), Notre Dame, and Ohio State; Peppers said that Michigan will "definitely" be in his top five when he has one, and he's working on setting up an unofficial visit. Getting in early on Peppers would make for a fantastic start to the 2014 class.
Quickly: Kyle Turley and J.C. Shurburtt break down Logan Tuley Tillman's junior film—there's not much insight beyond what Turley wrote up last week, but it's interesting to see him go through tape. David Dawson is still getting visited by other schools, with Florida making a particularly strong push, though he remains committed and won't take visits elsewhere—he's well aware of Hoke's policy. Trieu breaks down the emerging 2014 prospects in the Midwest, including recently-offered Parrker Westphal.
Last month I took a look at how the recruiting services stacked up when it came to predicting future college success. With the latest NFL Draft in the books I wanted to review it to see if there were major differences between services predicting the draft versus college success.
Even though NFL draft position doesn’t always equate to success at college, it is an indicator of talent and there are very few instances were great college players don’t ultimately end up in the NFL, mainly highly efficient noodle armed quarterbacks. Even rushing quarterbacks typically find their way onto draft boards where the Kellen Moore’s and Case Keenum’s of the world sign on as undrafted free agents.
Biggest Hits & Misses
Here are the players from the first three rounds that one service rated significantly different than the other two.
ESPN had significantly more outliers than other two services. Luckily, the hits outweighed the misses. ESPN was the sole advocate for five first rounders and had more hits (9) than the other two services combined (7). The Worldwide Leader also racked up the misses at a record pace, missing on six top picks.
Morris Claiborne, Ryan Tannehill, Luke Kuechly, Kendal Wright, Whitney Mercilus, Courtney Upshaw, TJ Graham, Mohamed Sanu, Sean Spence
Matt Kalil, Mark Barron, Nick Perry, Mitchell Schwartz, Cordy Glenn, Isaiah Pead
Scout had only four players from the first three rounds that they significantly diverged from the other services on. Their divergence was centered on receivers as three of the four players they deviated on were wide outs.
Justin Blackmon, Stephen Hill, Olivier Vernon
The players were different but Rivals hit and miss counts were virtually identical to Scout.
Quinton Coples, Brandon Taylor, Jamell Fleming, Jayron Hosley
Round by Round Scorecard
How each round went, points given for whichever service had a draft pick rated highest (must be in the top 1000 ranked). Numbers listed as Rivals/Scout/ESPN.
Round 1: Push 8/9/9
Round 2: Rivals 11/4/6
Round 3: Rivals/ESPN 8/3/8
Round 4: Scout/ESPN 6/12/10
Round 5: Scout 5/9/3
Round 6: Rivals/ESPN 5/3/6
Round 7: Scout 8/12/6
Overall the wins were pretty evenly balanced across the services. Rivals taking at least a share of the first three rounds would probably give them the overall edge. They also had the lowest overall average ranking of draft picks.
Scorecard by Class
Class of 2007: Push 18/18/15
Class of 2008: Scout 22/29/26
Class of 2009: Rivals 10/6/5
Despite their overall strength, Rivals struggled in the main class of the draft, 2008.
The look at the NFL draft results versus the recruiting rankings mostly reinforce each other. Based on the data from both looks, here is how I would describe each service’s strengths and weaknesses.
Rivals: The best and most consistent performer. Year after year producing output at or above the level of any other service.
Scout: A very good second to Rivals. Similar consistency to Rivals and an overall level that is close but still a notch below. A quality second voice.
ESPN: The all or nothing service. Demonstrated that overallocation to the SEC that isn’t necessarily supported by the NFL draft. Blatant neglect of west coast recruits but willing to deviate from the other services, with mixed results.
It is spring, the time of renewal, by which I mean today is the last day you can renew your football season tickets. In order to do this you were supposed to get your "points" by donating earlier—by Jan. 30 even—but like any other money-taking organization, so long as they have inventory and you are willing to give money for that inventory, a deal may be struck. According to MGoSoftball they won't even tell you the minimum donation you need to get the tickets, because then you might not bid too high. This is starting to sound more like buying a car than access to see Michigan play Air Force, UMass, Illinois, MSU, Northwestern, and Iowa.
JeepinBen posted a link to an attendance visualizer for 2006-'11. The money shot:
Things that don't affect attendance: major scandals (OSU), or fleecing your fanbase with mandatory donations (M). Things that kill attendance: major scandals AND fleecing your fanbase with mandatory donations to buy football tickets. Penn State had their scandal at the same time as Ohio State. The "adjusted season ticket pricing guidelines" were instituted in Happy Beaver Valley State College for 2011.
Meanwhile Indiana and Kentucky won't play each other in basketball for the first time since 1969 because Indiana didn't want to turn it into an NBA game and Kentucky was all like "screw you guys, I'm S-E-C!"
SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH THIS GAME
Now I love college football, so much so that I have knee-jerk reaction when somebody says it's barbaric, even if it's a former linebacker. We don't know what caused Junior Seau to commit suicide, or Dave Duerson, or Ray Easterling. What we know is that multiple concussions can create severe, suicidal depression, and when you start going down the list of former football players to commit suicide it's exactly the dudes you remember as your favorite hitters. Football is still the sport that killed participants and will always be about breaking the other guy's will by flinging your body at him. But I'm ready to overreact now.
That Virginia Tech study which came out last year that ranked the helmets on the market based on safety also taught us a lot about helmet design. Last time I had this conversation with someone it was at the plastics show in Orlando with a guy who makes the padding in the helmets. I asked what's holding them back from making a helmet that cuts down on concussions and got two points back: One, there's an aesthetic problem—people have a general idea of what a football player ought to look like, and some of the danger points (like the top of the forehead) when you put more padding over them, make the player wearing the helmet look less dangerous. Two—and this was just anecdotal—the helmets are already ridiculously safer than they were just 10 years ago, but the safer they make the helmets the more recklessly the players will attack each others' heads. He said when he played ball (in the '60s and '70s) they knew their helmets weren't infallible so players held back, even against hated rivals.
Like I said, I'm ready to overreact, but how? I really have no idea. This is cumulative so the NFL is going to feel the brunt of this, but the concussions don't care if the players were paid when they happened. At the very least remember this when you're complaining about how they effectively got rid of kickoff returns this year. They're obviously trying; there's no such thing as an easy fix.
PRACTICE? PRACTICE? PRACTICE!
Thank you Matthew for discovering a bevy of footage from former slot receiver Terrence Robinson. T-Rob was the first
starting slot bug in the Rodriguez era, but injury and dropsies buried him under the thickest part of the depth chart and he ended an unrenewed 5th after last year. He put his practice film on YouTube because what says Michigan 2008-'10 more than a backup slot receiver burning a who's who of terrible defensive backs. Watch as Teric Jones is knocked on his butt by a 5'8 dude, and J.T. Turner stands around then sort of waves at a pass that's going behind him—exactly the way my brother plays EA NCAA defense. Between hilariously bad bites by a clueless Cullen Christian you can also find a bunch of perfect-touch downfield passes by Devin Gardner. Practice hype: not all fairies.
Double-post on this one but we haven't mentioned it yet on the front page that I can tell: the 2nd slot bug of the Rod era—Odoms—has an organization to help the town that gave Michigan its Florida flavor. I'm contacting them about how we might help (and about their spelling of "Vegtable" [sic]). Brandin Hawthorne wears No. 7 because that's the number of their high school teammate who was shot. Vincent Smith is the team's smallest back and yet the best pass blocker among them. There are towns who have done less for us.
Meanwhile in former player charities, Space Emperor Zoltan is still unfamiliar with human humor, and thus has asked his minions of Earth to tweet him a good name for his celebrity karaoke event.
IS THERE A DRAFT IN HERE OR AM I JUST IN KOREA?
Draft-related items littered the board the past few weeks. The coolest is that from blueherron, who created a spreadsheet of Michigan draft picks. The last three years was unsurprisingly our lowest output since the '80s. Rivals did a two-part series comparing their rankings to the draft and got a good discussion going. And brooktrail posted the inevitable discussion of M's next crop.
COACHES TO AISLE MAGNUS
Magnus's program is a little light at defensive tackle, facing a run-heavy schedule, and looking into going with a 3-3-5 to make up for that. Degree of difficulty for snarky responses applies—I'm sure he's already purchased a stuffed beaver. CoachZ's response is enlightening. Coaches: plz write more diaries.
ALL DIARIES ARE TENNIS DIARIES
ETC. Blockhams are trying to help their Sparty brother. You can help Six Zero by suggesting ways for this not to become RCMB-blue. THE_KNOWLEDGE has discovered our WYSIWYG has a feature to make text bigger and wants his own tab.
Special Teams: Bit of a mixed bag, just not in the way you expected.
This is the final edition of the 2011 Preview Review, focusing on special teams and Brian's "stupid predictions"—his term, not mine. Instead of breaking it down in the categories I've used in the two previous posts, I'm just going to go prediction-by-prediction for this one, since there's obviously less to cover here.
First, however... never forget:
This picture, encapsulating the gawd-awfulness of Michigan's 2010 attempts to split the uprights with a football, prefaced the preview section for kickers. The general assumption, given said gawd-awfulness, was that highly-touted freshman Matt Wile would step onto campus and immediately take over the starting job. Instead, three photos of post-shank Brendan Gibbons graced the top of the "kicker" section ("Rating: 2?"), followed by this caption:
WHAT THE BALLS WHY IS THIS MAN'S PICTURE HERE
It was a legitimate question. Gibbons went 1-for-4 in the 2010 regular season, lost his job to Seth Broekhuizen (3-for-9), then put a fitting cap on RichRod's final season by completely biffing a 35-yarder in the Gator Bowl. Optimism, well, was justifiably absent:
The idea of Gibbons hitting the field again gives me hives. At least this time around there's another option, though it's an option that lost out to Brendan Gibbons. Guh.
I always punt on kickers I haven't seen play but the chances Michigan has come up totally incompetent on two straight scholarship guys is low. Either Gibbons has gotten a lot better or they're trying not to put too much on Wile's plate.
So, of course, Gibbons goes out and hits 13 of 17 field goals, then cements himself in Michigan lore by drilling the game-winner in the Sugar Bowl while thinking about brunettes. By midseason, I wasn't even hiding my eyes when Hoke sent out the field goal unit. Gibbons improved dramatically; I won't attempt to figure out why—kickers are weird—but the stark contrast in reactions between Hoke and Rodriguez when the kicking game went to hell isn't a bad place to start.
The aspect of the kicking game that purported to be rock-solid was punting, where Wile was supposed to hold down the fort for four games until Will Hagerup made a grand, Zoltan-esque return from suspension.
If he manages to get through September without immolating his career, Michigan will have one of those punters color commentators call a "weapon" whenever he strolls onto the field. In Hagerup's case this is almost not hyperbolic.
Brian gave the punters a rating of "3, then 5" with the expectation that Hagerup would put behind him the early struggles of his freshman season and punt like the guy who averaged 44 yards per boot in Big Ten play. Instead, he wasn't even the best punter on the team: Wile averaged 42 yards per punt, while Hagerup managed just 36. Hagerup still started for most of the season, but when he shanked punts for 26 and 24 yards in the Sugar Bowl, Wile came on in relief and again performed better. Michigan finished the season 109th in net punting, a bitterly disappointing effort from a unit that was thought to be a strength.
Less surprising were Michigan's struggles in the return game, where Jeremy Gallon's contined presence at punt returner after finding every conceivable way to fumble in 2010 was deemed "inexplicable." There was one mission, and one mission only:
Gallon and the kick returners? Ask again later. I'm not expecting miracles. Just HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL.
There were no miracles. Gallon averaged a hair over ten yards per punt return as the Wolverines finished 53rd nationally in that category. Martavious Odoms and Vincent Smith handled most of the kick return duties; both were underwhelming, and Michigan was 117th in the country, averaging just 18.4 yards. Fumbles were notably absent, however, and thus the masses were placated.
Now we delve into the "Heuristics and Stupid Prediction" portion of the preview. Brian again recounted RichRod's "weird evil turnover juju," then predicted that Michigan would experience a much-needed regression to the mean after finishing -10 in turnover margin in 2010, in large part due to a competent defense and experience (say what?) at quarterback.
If Robinson remains healthy Michigan should improve significantly. The defense has to suck less and Robinson's responsibility should improve rapidly relative to players more than a year removed from being novelty freak shows. I'm afraid that Robinson is just a fumble-prone guy—Mike Hart didn't need experience to hold on to the damn ball—but the interception rate should dip considerably.
On the other side of the ball, a defense that rushes more than three players and has Martin, RVB, and Roh should get back to at least average in sacks. The center of the Gaussian distribution here is probably –3 turnovers on the year; even that would be massive improvement.
Robinson's interception rate, unfortunately, did not take a dive, but that didn't stop the Wolverines from vastly exceeding those expectations. Michigan finished +7 on the year, jumping from 109th to 25th in the national rankings.
The part you all want to see, however, is the final, "stupid" prediction. Before the ultimate unveiling, Brian put forth best-case and worst-case scenarios. Your nightmare season:
There's no bottom if Denard and a couple of other key defensive players are hurt. Leaving the worst-worst case out, a relatively healthy Michigan has no business losing to WMU, EMU, Minnesota, or Purdue at home.
San Diego State, Northwestern, Illinois are all losable but Denard should be able to snake at least one of those. 5-7 is the floor.
Obviously, none of that happened, because this website is not devoted to pictures of kittens. As for the best-case season:
The schedule is fairly soft, with no true road games until Michigan State (the game at Northwestern will be at least half M fans) and both Penn State and Wisconsin rotating off. If the offense maintains its current level of productivity and Mattison mediocres the defense real good, the only game that still seems entirely out of reach is Nebraska.
That's not to say Michigan can reasonably expect to win all games in reach. Taking more than two from Notre Dame, Michigan State, Iowa, and the Akron State Golden Bobcats seems to be irrational optimism. 9-3 is about all you can reasonably hope for.
Take out what ended up being overblown faith in Nebraska and understandable skepticism about the defense being anything better than mediocre and this is essentially what happened. Hooray for besting the "best-case" scenario. Less hooray for overrating Iowa and seeing them beat us anyway.
And finally, Brian's actual prediction:
I add it up and I come up with eight wins and change. Assume one irreplaceable player is annihilated and that comes back down to an even 8-4. Unlike last year, when I predicted 7-5 but thought 6-6 was more likely than 8-4, I think Michigan is more likely to surprise to the positive until such time as we have another Woolfolk ankle explosion pity party.
Some commenters have suggested that the exactingly specific predictions in the previous posts today suggest I'd be predicting something better than 8-4, but I think turnovers, while getting much better, will still be in the red. Though the special teams issues can't be as bad they will still be a problem that could kill Michigan in a close game.
Robinson, Martin, Van Bergen, and Demens all survived the season without significant injury; dodging those potential bullets cannot be understated in its significance. Throw in Michigan's turnover reversal, a defense that surprised even the most irrational optimist, and a competent kicking game—plus the implosion in Columbus—and you get a 10-2 regular season, landmark victories over Notre Dame and Ohio State, and a (completely fluky) Sugar Bowl triumph over Virginia Tech.
Please predict 10-2 this time around, Brian. That's how these things work, right?
WR ALERT. Devin Gardner's facebook:
Stop everything you're doing for the next three months and talk about this. Certain packages are likely to include the redzone and third down stuff when Michigan has four WRs on the field. 20-30 catches maybe? Unless an enraged Al Borges refuses to field a leaker?
UPDATE: Michigan says that's not actually Devin Gardner's facebook page. Woo!
Wow. Of all the quotes to put on Joe Paterno's grave, this is the best one:
No idea if that was planned previously and now takes on a vastly sadder meaning in the aftermath or someone in the family calling a ballsy audible. But, yeah.
When Irish legs are drunkenly crane-kicking you. Tommy Rees was at a party in South Bend that was broken up because it's South Bend. City motto: Where Fun Goes to Die. He got some tickets and stuff, but then the crushing weight of life in rural Indiana finally got to him and he went "wwrrroaaaaaAAHHHH" at a cop:
Officers saw five people jumping a fence to run away and they chased them down, catching Rees and Calabrese.
In an attempt to get away, Trent says Rees kneed an officer in the stomach.
Rees got pepper-sprayed—internet, where is the Tommy Rees getting it from Pepper Spray Cop image?—and arrested on various charges including a felony that has a zero point zero percent chance of sticking.
This is par for the Tommy Rees decision-making course. Confronted by police, the options he considered included:
- calmly taking the ticket and going home
- licking Manti Te'o's face just to see what would happen
- detaching his arm, insisting that it was actually Tommy Rees and he was Steve Miller of Steve Miller band
- transferring to any school coached by a non-mauve person
ANSWER KEY: #5: 10 points. #1: 5 points. #2: one point. #4: zero points. #5: you have been eaten by a grue'o.
So he could have done worse. Irish fans are hoping this disqualifies him from starting this fall. Opponents are hoping for his safe, addled return.
BONUS: Carlo Calabrese is as connected as you would expect a guy named "Carlo Calabrese" to be:
At 1 point, (Carlo) Calabrese allegedly told officers, "my people will get you," per police reports.
DOUBLE DRAGON BONUS: Jacobi uses the Furman suspension to troll Notre Dame about their lack of character. Well done. (BR link!)
Give us back our New Year's Day, and do so by taking it away. Remember when New Year's Day was reserved for teams that had won, like, eight games? Yeah, man, back then you really had to eke out a mediocre season to play on January first. No longer:
At the 2010 Outback Bowl, Auburn became the first team in 62 years to play on New Year’s Day with a losing conference record. Five more teams have done that since then: Northwestern, Texas Tech, Michigan, Florida and Ohio State.
In the past five years, 10 of the 27 New Year’s Day bowls featured a team without a winning conference record. That occurred in just six of the 221 New Year’s Day bowls from 1968 to 2007.
Fans have been treated like suckers. The powers-that-be figured by putting something on New Year’s Day — even if it was undeserving teams — you’d keep filling seats, watching on TV and building up ratings for BCS bowls in the coming days.
You can't even blame TV since the Big Ten's desire to cram every game they're in onto New Year's Day means four games I'd watch if given the option are on at the same time. As long as we're banning 6-6 teams from the postseason, let's ban teams with more than three losses from New Year's Day.
The erosion of NYD is a fine example of the stuff that drives me nuts the increasingly short-term thinking plaguing of college athletics: you have an institution that is loved, so you milk it for dollars until you've destroyed the meaning of that institution. Get The Picture:
The thing is, it’s not like that happened in a vacuum. It wasn’t an accident. It’s what TV wanted. And the conference commissioners were more than happy to comply with the request, as long as the checks rolled in. Now the panic has set in as the numbers decline. But who’s to say that the guys who drove the bus into the ditch in the first place are qualified to pilot the tow truck to pull the bowl season out of the ditch? Does anybody really believe they’d place the sanctity of New Year’s Day above a few more dollars?
On the national level this results in Gator Bowls between 7-5 teams on NYD; on the local level it results in the reseating of Crisler with absolutely no consideration given to the guys who have had tickets for the last crappy decade.
Alienating your most loyal fans is rarely a winner unless you're winding down an industry. (See: profitable but debt-laden newspapers slashing content willy-nilly.)
How to do it. I may expand this into a larger post later, but amongst an avalanche of head-nods and "you go girl" exclamations while I read Dan Wetzel's latest article on how to construct playoffs I found myself having a serious disagreement. It's here:
There is no good way to choose the field. None. There has to be a subjective decision made, and no one likes subjective decisions.
The best of a bad situation is to have that subjectivity hashed out in a cool, calm and studied environment and then make the selection process as transparent as possible.
As such, the sport would be best served if it created a single computer formula. People could decide how important strength of schedule (preferably giving extra credence to tough nonconference scheduling) or margin of victory or home-field/road-game criteria should be. They could program the formula accordingly and then test and tweak the next two seasons.
Most importantly, they could offer it up to everyone so that teams can plan ahead, know what they are up against and track the progress as the season goes along.
I'm a math guy, but that's not going to work. There is just not enough data in a 12-game season with very little meaningful overlap between conferences. Adding MOV helps, but not enough. Even computer models that try to take every drive or play into account spit out weird results like Virginia Tech #3 overall in 2009. While any selection mechanism would fall on the descriptive side of the descriptive/predictive rankings divide*, I just don't see a computer ranking ever getting fine enough that it will be right as much as a dedicated selection committee.
You need the committee to override groupthink like "Oregon has more losses than Stanford because it played LSU, so Stanford makes it."
In other playoff ideas, I do like the idea that a conference champ ranked 5 or 6 gets in over someone who didn't win the conference. Without that limitation you get some squirrelly fields. That one seems good to me since it solves that Oregon issue.
*[IE: rankings either describe what you've done—evaluate who's had the best season—or attempt to predict the future by ignoring noisy wins and losses for a more robust underlying model.]
Stop, collaborate, and listen. Joe Stapleton talked with Zak Irvin's AAU coach and came back with some tantalizing tidbits. He's his loaded AAU team's go-to scorer and we also get some additional indication he could be BRJ 3000:
“Defensively, he’s our stopper,” Green said. “We put him on the other team’s best player. So sometimes you’ve got the best offensive guy, he’s going to work, but then he’s got to turn around and play defense against the other team’s best player. He’s capable of doing both.”
When the All-Stars were in zone, Irvin played at the top and was disruptive. His 6-foot-6 frame and long arms made it nearly impossible for smaller guards to get a lob pass over him, and his quickness allowed him to hound the ball without getting taken advantage of.
When the All-Stars were in man-to-man, Irvin guarded the opposing team’s best player and gave them plenty of trouble. Irvin’s combination of size and quickness allowed him to guard post players and wing players equally effectively.
“His best attribute right now is being a lockdown defender,” Green said. “Defensively, he’s always been a lockdown defender and that’s never going to change.”
I love players who can add value without using possessions, whether they're Aaron Craft or Ben Wallace. Irvin is going to use possessions, possibly at a Hardaway rate—in AAU the dude is an aggressive shooter. Add in a lot more value than Hardaway has at the other end of the floor, where he's an indifferent defender, and an inch or two of height and Irvin sounds like a top 50 player easy.
Etc.: Various coaches on playoffs. Considerable speculation that Alabama's projected starting tailback may not be ready for the Jerryworld game. They would plug in a five-star freshman in his stead. You are annihilating the EDSBS fundraiser. Good luck, St. Louis group trying to get a Big 10-SEC bowl game there. Seriously, good luck.
An apparently continuing series on Dave Brandon's remarkably malleable opinions.
Dave Brandon, January 16th($):
"This whole notion of a playoff is ridiculous because I don't care what you come up with, it's not going to be a fair playoff. You've got a bunch of teams that don't play one another and play different competition and in different time zones in different conferences in different stadiums in front of different crowds and different weather and suddenly at some point in the year you are trying to arbitrarily decide which one is better and which one deserves to be in a four-team playoff or a six-team playoff."
Dave Brandon, May 3rd:
"I'm not opposed to 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3, plus-one concept," Brandon said. "I don't see it as a true playoff system. It's a clever way to come up with one more football game. I'm not sure I call that a playoff, but if it makes everybody feel better, call it a playoff."
Mmmm, bendy. Dave Brandon's line between playoff and not playoff is 5.87 teams, no fewer, no more.
|Akron, OH – 6'2", 190|
22 in black
|Scout||4*, #19 S, #245 overall|
|Rivals||4*, #12 S, #15 OH|
|ESPN||4*, 80, #13 S, #9 OH|
|24/7||4*, #15 S, #16 OH|
|Other Suitors||Penn State, Notre Dame, Stanford, Michigan State|
|YMRMFSPA||Jamar Adams. I mean it this time.|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Hello post from Tim. Tom interviews Ricky Powers.|
|Notes||Coach is… former Wolverine Ricky Powers. Early enrolee.|
You may already be familiar with Jarrod Wilson from the spring game and practice videos. He's the guy a second late when a running back breaks past the line, the one who's diving at ankles and not quite making the tackle. That's fine. Wilson was suiting up for Akron Buchtel a few months ago and is still adapting to the speed of the college game. Once he accelerates his thinking he'll be on his feet, bringing people down.
What Michigan has in Wilson is a safety. Not a safety who's probably a linebacker, or a tight end, or a wide receiver, or a gibbering pile of meat that explodes into touchdown confetti whenever play action occurs. A safety. At 6'2", 190 pounds Wilson will fill out to 200 or 210 or maybe 220 and still be the rangy center-field type who can come down and cover a tight end or running back man-to-man. He will not end up at strongside linebacker. He is a safety. Michigan fans have a slight paranoia about this position group.
Don't listen to me, listen to everyone. The recruiting sites seemed to have huddled up on Wilson, agreed to rank him somewhere around the #15 safety in the country, and split up with a "no gibbering pile of touchdown meat" break. After dispersing, they all wrote the same things.
Wilson should emerge as an upper-tier free safety prospect in 2012. …Possesses great size. Tall, well-built with good length and room to fill out. He flashes great range, particularly in deep coverage and good overall speed. Best attribute may be his reads and diagnosing skills. Rarely caught out of position, stays deep as the deepest and expertly splits twins set receivers. Consistently takes direct angles to the ball while keeping the pass in front of him. Times his break accurately and has the range to get over and on the top of deep routes.
The lone downside is a lack of explosive explosiveness. Everything else is there: frame, smarts, range. The scouting report goes on to praise his ability to keep leverage, cover a deep half, be a cover-one safety, etc. For a Michigan fan burned over and over again by alarming safety play, this is catnip. Seriously, if you have insider, just read it, then read it again, and then try really hard not to think about Isaiah Bell.
It's basically the same elsewhere. Trieu praises his closing speed, awareness, and hands, notes his quickness and flexibility are relative downsides, and speaks thusly:
Wilson is a rangy safety with a knack for making big plays. He has good closing speed, ball skills and anticipation. When the ball is in his hands, he's usually a threat to score or have a big return. He's not as good side to side as he is in a straight line.
Bucknuts' Duane Long:
If a college coach came to me and said he played eight in the box alot and needed a centerfielder right in the middle of the field I would suggest Jarrod Wilson. He is fast and very athletic. He reads the game and reacts to the ball as well as any safety in the class. The best cover safety in the class. The best safety in the class on the ball. He needs to be a better tackler. The good news is he is a willing tackler. Never shies away from contact.
Rivals site Ohio Varsity praises($) his "ideal size," "knack for being at the right place at the right time," and says his "reactions are blue chip caliber." Run support is just adequate, man-to-man is something to work on, etc. Bill Greene caught a game and came back saying the same bit about "covering a large area of the field." You get the idea.
FWIW, when he showed at the Best of the Midwest camp last year Josh Helmholdt thought he did okay($):
One of the biggest questions regarding Wilson's game coming into Sunday's event was whether the big safety could handle man-to-man coverage, and he answered that satisfactorily. Wilson flips his hips well and showed the speed necessary to stay with even the smaller receivers. He is still destined for safety in college, but his coverage skills should be no longer in doubt.
He's not a corner; he'll be able to cope unless the defense gets really mixed up.
One area in which his athleticism is not in doubt is getting off the ground. Multiple reports held that he is a Hemingway-esque leaper, with this the most evocative($):
Jarrod Wilson, a 4-star safety prospect from Buchtel High in Akron, Ohio, had his fellow campers buzzing when he leaped so high during the vertical-jump competition that his right hand passed over the top rung of the testing apparatus.
Wilson was credited with a 42-inch leap because the machine was set to record jumps up to 42 inches. After several minutes of discussion, D1 officials reset the apparatus to accommodate higher jumps. Wilson couldn't match his previous magic, however, posting a best of 41 inches on three subsequent jumps.
All that got Wilson every major Midwest offer save Ohio State—who went after some guys who showed at camp instead—plus various distant offers of varying impressiveness: UCLA, WVU, Stanford. (It's always nice to see a Stanford offer, since that means chances of not qualifying are zero.) So: Wilson, a large, rangy safety with an issue or two in run support who is not going in the first round of the draft because he is not an A+ athlete. I'll take two.
We have yet more data on Wilson since he showed up early. Forced into the two deep immediately thanks to Josh Furman's suspension, Wilson was the subject of more chatter than all topics not involving Joe Bolden or Devin Gardner at WR. Jordan Kovacs on his adjustment:
“He’s come in and picked up the defense really, really well. That’s one of the things he’s got the football smarts and as a defensive back you really need that,” Kovacs said. “Don’t get me wrong, there are things he needs to get cleaned up and improved on, but I’m definitely impressed with how much he’s progressed and how good of a ballplayer he is as a senior in high school. He has a lot more time here and I expect big things in the future.”
Kovacs went another step. When asked if he felt Wilson could play in the fall, he said he could see it.
Powers had said something similar($) earlier in the year:
"He's starting to be a student of the game," said Buchtel coach Ricky Powers. "He's coming to watch film and do all those things that need to be done to get him better. He's a smart kid anyway, so it wasn't hard.
"We taught him to understand offenses and what defenses he should be calling what looks they're going to show us and how he can counter those looks with the calls he makes. More classroom work than anything else. The kid has the physical ability to do anything." …
"He's just a smart kid," Powers said. "There's a reason why he's going to Michigan, and he's proven that."
While no one wants to see a freshman starting at safety ever again, Wilson may be able to step in as a sophomore and play beyond his years thanks to his well-oiled thinkin' organ. If pressed into duty this year things could be as un-disastrous as they were when Jamar Adams was.
Long term, there's this feeling. It's not like dread. It's kind of a feeling that you get when the sun's out and it's nice and breezy. No idea what it is, but not dread. Sort of like thinking something might work out in the future. No idea what it is.
Etc.: Smartphone video of his commitment. Not a hat dude. Had a sign. Michigan's hat dude drought continues. Rivals AMP feature on one of his games. Team got blown out 31-6, unfortunately. Won some sort of MVP at something called the "Offense-Defense Bowl." Postgame interview. Monster game to finish his high school career.
He's on the couch. It's quite a couch. It's got plastic all over it.
Magnus is… happy?
I am a huge fan of Wilson's abilities. He has the size, speed, tackling ability, and ballhawking instincts that Michigan teams have been lacking for the last several years. And, perhaps best of all, he's the elusive Michigan-recruited safety who actually looks like a safety and not a linebacker.
Well all right then.
Why Jamar Adams? Adams gets dragged out a lot in YMRMFSPA because comparing incoming recruits to other Michigan safeties over the last decade is a good way to get on an enemies list, but in this case the comparison is pretty tight. Both guys are 6'2". Adams topped out around 215, which is where Wilson will probably end up. Adams was also a high character guy with the smarts not to get annihilated in coverage as a freshman.
While Adams was a generic three-star recruit he outperformed his recruiting ranking and had a quintessential mid-four-star career as a three-year starter who was second-team all conference twice. Adams also lacked the explosive explosivity that makes NFL teams drool, went undrafted, and kicked around NFL practice squads for a bit.
Wilson may have a little bit more upside, athleticism and range; we'll see. No one will be complaining if he's an atom-accurate replica of Adams.
Guru Reliability: High. They're in lockstep, Wilson was healthy, well-scouted, etc. Only some additional camp appearances or an All Star game thing would have helped.
Variance: Very low. Smart kid and good student not likely to have academic issues. Already on campus, picking up praise for his understanding of the defense. Projects to a spot he played in high school. Injury-free so far.
Ceiling: Moderate-plus. Seems like he has a B+/A- ceiling he's likely to reach.
General Excitement Level: After implementing a complex anti-jinx ritual I can say this: high. While Wilson seems to lack the outrageous athleticism that would pop him up into the Dymonte Thomas range, he's got everything else. He's taken the first step towards contributing by showing up and seeming to belong this spring and will be the #1 candidate to step into Jordan Kovacs's unerringly accurate shoes.
I have a lower threshold for "high" at safety than anywhere else, admittedly.
Projection: What it says above: someone's got to replace Jordan Kovacs next year and the bet here is that Wilson is the guy with Marvin Robinson the major threat. If Robinson wins run support will probably be the reason why. I am not putting much emphasis on the distinction between free and strong safety because my guess is that Michigan's safeties get a lot more interchangeable once Kovacs is gone and they don't have a weird player with elite skills and major issues all in one package.
Wilson probably will not redshirt as Michigan tries to get him prepped for major time as a sophomore. Michigan will deploy him on special teams and maybe use him to give the starting safeties a breather if they find themselves in games that aren't particularly hairy.
About 50 minutes. Also, I'm hosting, so you'll have to wait for another time to hear Brian's dulcet tones on the mic.
MORE RECRUITIN'. The top remaining positions of need—and the top targets to fill those needs—are discussed. You should be able to guess my top three Michigan targets without even bothering to listen (but please listen).
THE QUEST FOR THE HOLY RECRUITING GRAIL. Realistic expectations for how each class will fill out are put forth, as are guesses about where they will land in the national team rankings. I try very hard not to scream "eat it suckers we're number one!!!1!" I mostly succeed.
EVERYBODY IN THE CLUB COMMITTIN' EARLY. Why? We have theories.
NON-COMMITTABLE OFFERS AND YOU. Hate to break it to you, but Brady Hoke recruits a lot more like Urban Meyer than Bill O'Brien.
SONGS. Um, Brian chose the songs. Ask him. [ED: There aren't any songs except for the intro and outro since it's just one long segment.]
The usual links: