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Jack Stewart Commits to Michigan

By Seth — April 16th, 2018 at 7:38 PM — 105 comments
Filed under:
  • commitment alerts
  • jack stewart

image

[Jack Stewart/via 247Sports]

As Sam hinted earlier today the Wolverines have added more help in the trenches, pulling 6’5”/280 2019 offensive lineman prospect Jack Stewart out of Don Brown country:

Committed to the University of Michigan. Thank you to all the coaches that extended offers. #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/OfP36YAr9C

— Jack Stewart (@jackstewartnc74) April 16, 2018

Stewart got his Michigan offer during the big recruiting weekend a few weeks ago. He had offers from BC, Texas A&M, Zona, and just recently picked up a TCU offer after visiting the two Texas schools last week. Notre Dame was also fishing around. He’s a three star to 247, an unranked 2-star to Rivals, and doesn’t exist on ESPN because Connecticut offensive lineman.

Hudl video exists:

More informative update cometh.

  • 105 comments

Hello: Te'Cory Couch

By Ace — April 16th, 2018 at 2:49 PM — 36 comments
Filed under:
  • 2019 recruiting
  • commitment posts
  • te'cory couch


Lanky to the point of deception. [Andrew Ivins/247]

Despite a cancelled spring game, Michigan gained its first defensive back commit of the 2019 class over the weekend when they flipped four-star Hollywood (FL) Chaminade-Madonna Prep cornerback Te'Cory Couch from his prior pledge to Tennessee. The news broke yesterday and Couch confirmed it on his Twitter account last night. Miami (YTM) had been seen as Michigan's biggest competitor to pull Couch from his UT pledge, but one strong official visit to Ann Arbor was enough to sway him.

Couch is the eighth commit in Michigan's 2019 class, which now ranks fifth nationally and first in the Big Ten.

GURU RATINGS

Rivals ESPN 247 247 Comp
4*, 5.8, #20 S 3*, 75, #25 CB,
#272 Ovr
4*, 90, #32 ATH,
#330 Ovr
4*, #27 ATH,
#292 Ovr

While ESPN docks Couch a star, all three services have him in a relatively tight grouping. Rivals' #16 safety made their top 250, so he's probably lingering around 300th there, which would split between his ESPN and 247 rankings.

Despite the Rivals listing, Couch should come to Michigan as a cornerback/nickel. He measured in at a slight 5'9.5", 145 pounds at the Opening Miami regional, which puts him in the Jourdan Lewis/Lavert Hill cornerback category (as opposed to Channing Stribling/Jeremy Clark types, which entirely comprised the last secondary class). While short and slight, Couch has the frame to add a lot of weight and he plays taller than his listed height because of his long limbs. As you'll see, he fooled at least one scout into thinking he's a six-footer.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

Read more »
  • 36 comments

Let's Start Again: Nominal Power Forward

By Brian — April 16th, 2018 at 12:29 PM — 56 comments
Filed under:
  • 2018-19 basketball
  • brandon johns
  • ignas brazdeikis
  • isaiah livers
  • isaiah livers center possibility
  • let's start again

An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: point guard, shooting guard, small forward.

39607334951_581071e10c_z

3 and D [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

ROSTER

Isaiah Livers (So): Nominal starter had 13% usage and played like it, almost exclusively taking open shots someone else created for him. Plus OREB guy and defender.

Ignas Brazdeikis (Fr): Scoring machine is already 19 and has already featured in this series at the 2 and 3, for reasons.

Brandon Johns (Fr): More to prove than Brazdeikis but maybe a higher ceiling.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

[pokes Livers with a stick] hey. do something.

Isaiah Livers's 12.9% usage was the smallest number a Michigan rotation player put up since 2011, when sophomore Matt Vogrich Just-A-Shooter'd himself to 12.8%. The only scholarship player in the Kenpom era to do more than barely pip Livers in invisibility was the senior version of Gavin Groninger, who played 12 minutes a game despite shooting 10% from two and 19% from three. (Michigan basketball: more fun than it used to be.) Livers's FT rate of just above 10 is also in the same "might be the lowest in the Kenpom era" range. 90% of his shots at the rim were assisted, etc.

Livers's tendency to hole up in the corner and produce zero shots for himself or anyone else was a bit disappointing for Michigan's first instate Mr. Basketball winner in a minute. In retrospect, it actually wasn't that surprising. Matt D of Endless Motor provided a scouting report and video last year, and even against high school competition Livers was a jump shooter:

His head is often down when he dribbles against pressure defense though, mitigating his ability to create for others because he doesn't see the entire floor. Doesn't have good enough first step acceleration to create separation off the dribble against guards/wings in a straight line. Doesn't display ability to change direction with the basketball when his defender beats him to the spot or helpside defense cuts off his initial straight line. Does not get all the way to the rim off the dribble based on lack of acceleration and change of direction ballhandling.

That was the case as a freshman and will probably be the case for his career, give or take the usual Beilein development. It's asking a lot to up your usage by 50%, especially when your shot creation is a work in progress.

38899146184_6a46a7f99d_z

[Campredon]

On the other hand, Livers was pretty good at not having the ball. His 7.4 OREB rate was Michigan's best mark from a non-center since GRIII, and he's the only other Beilein-era wing even in the frame. While I'm fairly leery about Synergy's individual defensive numbers—Zavier Simpson 73rd percentile with Eli Brooks and Jaaron Simmons 87 and 88th?!?!—Livers checking in as Michigan's second-best defender (outside of PG absurdities) behind Charles Matthews agrees with the ol' eye test. On/off splits can be noisy, but a couple things jump out as likely to be real in ~700 possessions against top 100 teams:

Screen Shot 2018-04-15 at 7.01.03 PM

Livers provided big rebounding advantages over Duncan Robinson and caused both teams to operate inside the arc more. He was also terribly intimidating to opposition free throw shooters.

Normally, a 3-and-D wing who's a great rebounder would be a perfect fit at the four for John Beilein. Next year's team… maybe less so. Shot creation will be at a premium and it would take a huge leap for Livers to provide much. His target usage next year is probably 16, not 20. With Wagner gone that might be a problem.

Livers has a role next year. He'll improve, and in certain lineups his (probable) inability to create won't be as much of a problem. His familiarity with both Beilein's offense and Yaklich's defense will give him able time early in the year to solidify his spot. He's got a shot. But he's got a lot of competition all of a sudden, and it's 50/50 whether he's able to maintain his early lead. Upping the "3" part of 3-and-D is his best bet—34% probably isn't going to cut it. 40% would.

Which freshman is more likely to push him out of the way?

The twice-aforementioned Ignas Brazdeikis. Brazdeikis is older and spent his last couple years on one of those elite Canadian prep teams, where he put up 33 points per game against a collection of Success Academies; last week he drove to the basket on Bol Bol and actually scored. (Probably because he poked Bol in the eye, but rubbin's racin'.) For those and other reasons covered earlier in this series, Brazdeikis should be Michigan's sixth man immediately, and if he's able to survive on defense his ability to get to the rack will be vital.

But let's not forget Brandon Johns. Johns didn't take the hotshot prep route and saw his stock fall as a result. He spent large amounts of his time dunking on the best future accountants and deeply incompetent prosecutors that Ingham County could provide. The results were entertaining, at least.

Despite the bigger adjustment Johns faces, he is an even cleaner fit at the spot than Brazdeikis if he comes in hot. Johns is going to be the second-best athlete on the team as soon as he enrolls, and he might give Matthews a run for his money. This is a lot of above the rim for one game:

In contrast to Livers, Johns is extremely aggressive and spends most of his time getting to the basket. As per usual with high school prospects, denominators are few and far between… but apparently he shot 72% from 2 during his final high school season. This says something about his competition level, yes. It also suggests that he's allergic to the midrange. Probably? In 16 EYBL games Johns shot 52/44 with about three times more twos than threes; he shot 68% from the line on 40 attempts. AAU, sample size, grain of salt, etc.

This seems like a bit of a logjam. Can they spread this out some?

A bit. Brazdeikis has drawn mention at two other spots for a reason, and should draw most or all of the backup minutes behind Matthews since the 3 and 4 are very similar in Beilein's offense. It's not hard to get him up to 20-25 minutes even if Livers also gets that many.

In addition, Michigan hinted at some smallball lineups featuring Livers at the 5 late in the year. He looked pretty clueless about what to do on offense at the time, but if Michigan has designs on a position-less Villanova mode, he's going to be the guy they run that with. Johns may be more physically capable of holding it down at the 5 but will be in his pupation year and will look as baffled as Livers was this year. If Michigan gets weird it'll be with Livers.

OUTLOOK

This spot is the most unsettled on the team, in a good way. Michigan has three different four-stars who bring Beilein-style skills and excellent size to the 4, in three different flavors: 3-and-D (Livers), conscience-free bucket acquisition machine(Brazdeikis), and ferocious leaping dunk monster (Johns). Chances are one of those die rolls comes up real nice.

Take this prediction about who emerges with a grain of salt, but I think you'll see Livers start and maintain that role through the year. Early, the freshmen will make a bunch of mistakes on defense that will get them sternly talked to. Late, Livers might give back some playing time as Michigan turns to (potentially) higher-usage guys for a bulk of the minutes. It'll be like this years' Livers-Robinson platoon, except this version of Robinson is really really Not Just A Shooter. Minutes probably get split close to down the middle once you hand Iggy 10 from the 3: Livers gets 20, Iggy gets 20 at two spots, and Johns gets 10.

  • 56 comments

Te'Cory Couch Commits To Michigan

By Ace — April 15th, 2018 at 12:57 PM — 80 comments
Filed under:
  • 2019 recruiting
  • te'cory couch

The lack of a spring game and some ugly weather couldn't put a damper on a big recruiting weekend for Michigan, as today they gained a commitment from four-star Hollywood (FL) Chaminade-Madonna Prep cornerback Te'Cory Couch, who entered the weekend as a soft Tennessee pledge.

Couch is ranked 292nd overall on the 247 Composite. He's the eight commitment for Michigan in the 2019 class and the first in the defensive backfield. If the class calculator is correct, his pledge vaults M's class from eighth to fifth in the country and first in the Big Ten.

Today is my personal last-minute Tax Day, so a full Hello post will hit the front page tomorrow.

  • 80 comments

Exit: Moe Wagner

By Ace — April 14th, 2018 at 11:29 AM — 98 comments
Filed under:
  • 2018-19 basketball
  • moritz wagner
  • moritz wagner creates ankle slurry
  • moritz wagner dirk nowitzki comparisons aren't totally crazy
  • moritz wagner is german durant
  • moritz wagner multilingual trash-talker
  • nba draft
  • nba draft makes me forever alone


An all-timer. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Moe Wagner has made his decision. In an article he penned for The Players' Tribune, Wagner announced he'll enter the NBA Draft and sign with an agent, foregoing his senior season at Michigan. Wagner's lengthy, heartfelt farewell (titled "Thank You, Michigan") makes it clear this wasn't an easy choice, but he has some familiar footsteps to follow:

Alle träume klingen verrückt. Bis sie wahr werden.

This is what it says on the poster that I have on my wall. I’m looking at it now, in my apartment in Ann Arbor, as I’m telling you this story. It’s German, which you probably guessed, and it means: All dreams are crazy. Until they come true. (Good saying, right?) And then beside these words is a picture of Dirk Nowitzki — who is basically my idol.

Wagner is projected as a late first- or early second-round pick, an improvement over his stock last year, when his rebounding and defensive limitations had him projected closer to the bottom of the draft. Wagner improved both this year, especially rebounding, and while his defense is still a big question mark, his offensive skill set at his size will get him a contract and a roster spot.

This is the end of Wagner's remarkable collegiate journey. He came to Ann Arbor from Germany as a lanky wing, outgrew the position almost immediately, spent his freshman year struggling to earn playing time behind Ricky Doyle and Mark Donnal, and then became the key piece of John Beilein's five-out offense as a sophomore and junior. That doesn't mean we won't be seeing him around town, however.

Ann Arbor will always be the first American city that I ever really knew. In my opinion, it’s the perfect place to live — not too big, not too small. You get all four seasons, great sports, and some of the nicest and most genuine people I have met. I’ll miss Ann Arbor a ton and come back as much as I can.

Wagner's exit has significant ramifications for next year's team, of course, and we'll dig into those in greater detail this week. Jon Teske is now your surefire starting center next year, which will make Michigan a more defensive-focused team (with a greater defensive ceiling) but he'll be an offensive downgrade barring a breakout on that end—while he improved greatly at the pick-and-roll, he doesn't provide the same pick-and-pop, spead-the-defense threat. Austin Davis is most likely to settle into the backup role while talented freshman Colin Castleton—a Wagner-like player with plus rim protection—gets used to the system and adds some needed bulk.

Danke, Moe.

  • 98 comments

Friday Recruitin' Evidently Doesn't Need A Spring Game

By Ace — April 13th, 2018 at 3:14 PM — 53 comments
Filed under:
  • john dunmore
  • karsen barnhart
  • keontra smith
  • luke deal
  • nolan rumler
  • recruiting roundup
  • te'cory couch
  • xavier truss
  • zach harrison

Big-Time Visit Weekend Remains Big-Time Visit Weekend

Frankly, I wasn't expecting to write this post today once Michigan cancelled its spring game, but the recruiting process cares not for spring weather, and the coaches have ensured this is still a major visit weekend.

TMI's Sam Webb has a comprehensive, free rundown of this weekend's visitors. I'll hit on the highlights, including all of the official visitors—remember, this is the first year since the rule change that allows OVs in the spring.

The headliner is five-star OH DE Zach Harrison, who will spend Saturday on campus before heading home Sunday, per 247's Bill Kurelic. This will be an unofficial visit for Harrison, whose recruitment is shaping up to be a Midwest battle with Ohio State currently holding all 12 of his crystal ball picks. Michigan and Penn State are chasing the Buckeyes. The Wolverine's Brandon Brown is hearing Michigan is at least making things interesting:

"It was a two-horse race for a while with Ohio State and Penn State but Michigan has probably made it a three-horse race in recent weeks," a source close to the situation said. "I don't think anyone else has a realistic shot, though he'll still list Clemson and Notre Dame."

This weekend's visit will be important for making up ground on the Buckeyes, who are still the presumed favorite.

While this isn't setting up to be a carpal tunnel weekend, Sam has sounded a potential commitment watch—albeit without a gut feeling—for four-star FL CB Te'Cory Couch, a very soft Tennessee commit who's expected to wind up at either Michigan or Miami (YTM). He told 247's Andrew Ivins those two schools are the ones he's most focused on, and he's certainly hearing the right things from the Wolverine coaches:

"I just want to see what it's like there how the players live and stuff like that," he said when asked about the Wolverines. "I just want to see what they do on a day-to-day basis and the education. I'm talking a lot with [defensive coordinator Don Brown]. He loves me. He tells me that I'm the No. 1 corner on his board all the time."

A decision could come soon. While Sam didn't issue that gut feeling, he put in a Crystal Ball pick for Michigan, which is pretty close.

[Hit THE JUMP for more on weekend visitors.]

Read more »
  • 53 comments

Let's Start Again: Small Forward

By Brian — April 13th, 2018 at 1:27 PM — 31 comments
Filed under:
  • 2018-19 basketball
  • adrien nunez
  • charles matthews
  • ignas brazdeikis

An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: point guard, shooting guard.

39728638255_406a6caa7e_z

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

ROSTER

Charles Matthews (Jr.*): 25% usage and 102 ORTG has to be some sort of somethin' for Beilein-era players. NBA athlete, superior defender. Not currently on NBA radars because of shooting deficiencies.

Ignas Brazdeikis (Fr.): 19 YO Canadian would be top 40 recruit if folks ranked him. Gets buckets.

Adrien Nunez (Fr): Just A Shooter but at 6'5" can plausibly defend the 3.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

How close is Matthews to his ceiling?

The last time Michigan had a starter with an ORTG around Matthews's 101.6, Zak Irvin was scuffling through a 48/30 season; the team trundled to a 23-13 record and a First Four tourney bid. The most recent edition of Michigan did a lot better… but it would be nice if Matthews could turn it around. Irvin added ~8 ORTG points as a senior, for a target. There's good news and bad news here as Matthews attempts to match that.

39069900050_1a663ce7f9_z

1 TO vs Houston and most of the rest of the tourney schedule [JD Scott]

The good news: "Turnover" Matthews may have run steps when redshirting and frustrated fans to no end during his rough stretch in the middle of the season, but… actually, a 16.5 TO rate from a 25% usage guy isn't horrendous. God Himself Donte DiVincenzo had a TO rate of 16.9 on 23% usage. Various Big Ten non-Cs with a worse TO rate than Matthews last year include Jae'Sean Tate, Cassius Winston, Jaren Jackson, Brad Davison, Bryant McIntosh, Trent Frazier—none of whom matched Matthews's usage.

Matthews's problem was that at one point his TO rate was horrendous and his vector was pointing the wrong way:

image

A series of increasingly disastrous games pushed his season TO rate to 19.2 by late February, and it got uglier once you dropped the tomato cans. It was around this time certain bloggers started pleading to move whatever usage was available from Matthews to Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman, a man so allergic to turnovers that he explodes if he enters a bakery.

Michigan did this, and things immediately got better. The MAAR Accessories game against Maryland saw Mathews use 21% of Michigan's possessions, his lowest output since early January. Michigan blew the doors off, Matthews turned it over just twice, and the stage was set. The graph above turned into this:

image

And even the five TO blip against Montana came about largely because a desperate Michigan funneled Matthews 31% usage in terrible end-of-clock situations. (Also one of his three TOs against Villanova should been charged to Ibi Watson.)

This looks like a genuinely changed player. 11 games against tourney-ish competition (and Iowa!) is probably the toughest stretch of Michigan's season, and while Matthews's usage did drop into role player territory during the Big Ten Tournament he re-emerged into a >20 player in the Large Dance without ill effect despite Michigan playing Houston, Texas A&M, Loyola-Chicago, and Villanova—all top 20 Ds.

Another year in the same system and with the same relentless attention to detail should only improve Matthews's ability to not boot the ball into the crowd. While his finishing run is optimistic it's closer to what he should do in 2018-19 than his previous output.

[After THE JUMP: (relative) bad news and backups]

Read more »
  • 31 comments

Spring Practice Presser 4-12-18: Mike Zordich

By Adam Schnepp — April 13th, 2018 at 10:05 AM — 57 comments
Filed under:
  • ambry thomas
  • brandon watson
  • casey hughes
  • david long
  • hunter reynolds
  • jaylen kelly-powell
  • lavert hill
  • mike zordich
  • myles sims
  • press conference transcripts
  • spring practice 2018

36963715862_f3118886c0_z (1)

[Bryan Fuller]

[Ed. A- So my wife and I had a baby a week ago and since then I think of sleep like I used to think of vacations, like, “Oh, that would be nice to do someday.” Last night I caffeinated just in time for the baby to actually fall asleep, so I had a chance to transcribe this. Huge thanks to Orion Sang for passing along the audio.]

How’s your group look?

“Our group looks good. The guys that are out there are working their tails off and pleased with the progress.”

So you’re not going to come here and do what you did last camp?

[laughs] “We’re just gonna talk about the guys that are out there practicing, getting better, how about that? That fair enough to say?

“Yeah, but Ambry Thomas, B. Watson, David Long, then you got a young guy in Myles Sims who still should be in high school, he’s our here working his tail off getting better, so it’s been promising. Then Hunter Reynolds, a walk-on, really getting better, so it’s been good for ‘em.”

You mentioned Ambry Thomas. What’s the biggest difference in him from year one to year two?

“He is very comfortable now. We were just talking about it over there about maturity level. You know, last year we were so young and now all the sudden these guys have had some playing experience and it has helped them, and so that’s last year and now you’re walking into a new year and just much more confident. And things are slower for them, and he’s been really improved. [Inaudible] with the ones quite a bit, so he’s been showing up a bunch.”

If he’s been working with the ones does that mean maybe that Vert moves into the inside? Are you guys messing around with those combinations there?

“Well, yeah, you know, Vert hasn’t practiced, so he’s losing valuable time, unfortunately for him. But it allows Brandon Watson to continue to get better, Ambry THomas to get better, David Long to get better, and as I mentioned Hunter and Myles. So, it’s great for those guys. They’re just growing by leaps and bounds.”

Why hasn’t Hill practiced?

“He’s got an issue with his hips or his groin. Trying to figure that out.”

[After THE JUMP: who’s rising, who’s out, and where guys might end up]

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  • 57 comments

WTKA Roundtable 4/12/2018: You Can’t Squeeze a Baby Like You Squeeze a Football

By Seth — April 13th, 2018 at 7:53 AM — 22 comments
Filed under:
  • all or nothing the amazon special
  • give me all the hughes
  • jack hughes
  • pep hamilton
  • podcasts
  • quinn hughes
  • wtka roundtable

WTKA cover 2018-04-13

Things discussed:

  • The Amazon Special: Craig Ross is a star, Pep Hamilton is photogenic, Jim is pretty chill, Don Brown is our dude.
  • Best part of it is Chase Winovich: “You gonna protect your quarterback? Help me out bro run or pass? Why didn’t you block me?!?” Rashan’s mom: “Now go get some quarterback ass!”
  • Ed’s favorite part is Harbaugh using changing the baby as a metaphor for not fumbling and the entire team is like “What is he talking about?” except Karan Higdon like “Yup, yup, yup, with the toys on the floor…”
  • Hockey: Bad news is they were heavily reliant on their first line and that line all graduates/left early. Good news is they get Lockwood back, get one and maybe two Hughes brothers. People think Jack will stick it out with the NTDP but chance to play with your brother…
  • Hoops outlook: Expecting Moe to go the NBA but it’s not as sure as it was before. Next year they can be a really good defensive team with Teske at the 5 but that makes you wonder where the shooting comes from other than Poole.
  • The croots: Iggy is a shooter. Defense? Um. Passing? Not really. Buckets. Takes the Poole role. DeJulius the backup PG at least by end of last year, but only because Z is going to improve. Our slack chat is filled with drool over Castleton but might not get to use that until he’s had a thousand more trips through the buffet line.

----------------------------

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Podbean.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.

THE USUAL LINKS

  • Helpful iTunes subscribe link
  • General podcast feed link
  • Direct download link
  • What's with the theme music?

I put the baby down gently, he doesn’t have brain damage. I didn’t throw him.

  • 22 comments

Exit Ibi Watson

By Seth — April 12th, 2018 at 8:31 PM — 26 comments
Filed under:
  • departures
  • ibi watson
  • transfers

image

[Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Per his Twitter, sophomore SG/SF Ibi Watson plans to transfer.

During my time at the University Michigan I have learned and experienced so much. I enjoyed the relationships and memories that I made. Thank you to the coaching staff and my teammates for making my experience so great! After much thought, I have decided to explore other options. pic.twitter.com/tlCQrqQKek

— Ibi Watson (@ibi_watson_2) April 12, 2018

An exit for Ibi has been speculated ever since he got passed by fellow wing/wonderhair twin Jordan Poole, who’s a year younger, and poised to start at the two next year. Watson was already well under the 10% of minutes threshold between “limited roles” and “benchwarmers” this year, seeing his last significant minutes well after the Texas A&M rout was on. The last time Ibi was on the court extensively for a competitive game was LSU, and that performance was bad enough to give Poole his first crack.

With Charles Matthews likely returning and Adrian Nunez and Iggy Bazdeikis arriving this summer playing time wasn’t going to be any easier to find on next year’s squad even if you don’t count the backup point guards siphoning off winger minutes. Beilein also was poking around South Dakota grad transfer Matt Mooney, a 6’3” point guard who played half of USD’s minutes at the two last year, as of this week.

Michigan now has a scholarship for every player and commit for 2018-’19, with another spot likely to open up if Wagner goes to the NBA.

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