fair point that
How this works again:
- Readers predict the final score of a designated game by placing a guess in the comments, preferably in the format of [M score][hyphen][Opp score], for example "41-0" or "35-0 Michigan", or "28-0 Go Blue", or "42-0 Harbaugh!" etc.
- The three guys who read this part holler at people who post in a different format
- First person (by timestamp) to post a particular score has it.
- If you got it right, I contact you for an address by your MGoBlog account email, and you give me some time to get that to you.
- If nobody got it right or I don't hear from the winner(s) we push it to next week or let it go.
About Last Time:
Nobody was right, AGAIN!!! The closest score was 49-13. Like nobody even went with 49-14. Embarrassing. Disappointed.
This Week's Game:
Michigan at Indiana. Probably not a shutout.
And on the Line:
We were asked 20 times to make this shirt. So we made this shirt.
One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game. MGoEmployees and moderators exempt from winning. The algorithm finds the winners as it chooses. The algorithm is self-correcting. The algorithm consistently runs power. The algorithm is from Jersey, but is looking at schools out of state.
Previously: Indiana Offense
oh c'mon it's already hard enough to take this seriously
Indiana is last in the B1G in scoring defense, 13th in yards per play allowed, 13th in yards per pass allowed, 13th in yards per carry allowed, 13th in defensive S&P+, last in opponent first downs per game, last in opponent 3rd down conversion rate, and last in opponent scrimmage plays of >20 yards, >30 yards, >40 yards, >50 yards, >60 yards, >70 yards, and >80 yards.
Let's get this over with.
Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
The Hoosiers rotate quite a bit up front; you'll see plenty of Ralph Green and Robert McCray on the interior. Tyler Green, a true freshman corner listed third on the depth chart, also got a lot of run against Iowa.
Base Set? Multiple. They're something of a 3-4 team, but in the way Michigan is—there are usually four nominal down linemen, and IU actually played a lot of over fronts in this game.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Upon Further Review still has a sponsor. Hey man the feds are going to raid your meth lab. Or raise rates. I'm not sure which agency we're talking about. Unless they're the same one, which would be weird but again we are talking about an entity that thinks alcohol, tobacco, and firearms are pretty much the same thing. I disagree, feds.
What was I talking about again?
Oh, right: low rates won't be quite as low in the near future if you're on the fence.
FORMATION NOTES: Nothing weird in this one. This will be a pattern, as Michigan put the toys away for the most part. The screens were not anything super clever; other than the fullback wheel this was almost all things already put on film.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Exceptions from the usual routine were few and far between in this one. Smith and Johnson were the main tailbacks; Houma got a couple carries that must have induced déjà vu in Rudock. Green and Shallman got in some in garbage time.
Tight end was mostly Butt and Williams; Hill got a few snaps. Bunting may have gotten in once or twice, his playing time has dipped significantly. Wouldn't read too much into that since Williams is doing well.
WR was Darboh, Chesson, and Perry. I don't think Ways played. Newsome got a half-dozen snaps as an extra OL.
[After THE JUMP: accurate Iowa Rudock is a good thing.]
About Last Week:
Drake… yo, Drake… MOM MADE PIZZA ROLLS
The Road Ahead:
Indiana (4-5, 0-5 B1G)
Last week: Lost to Iowa, 35-27
Recap: All in all, not a bad performance by Indiana. The Hoosiers gave up a 65 yard touchdown run on the second play of the game, but they managed to cut Iowa’s lead to 21-20 in the fourth quarter before the Hawkeyes pulled away and Indiana was unable to recover a late onside kick.
Still, Indiana had a rough parity in yards (they were outgained 467-407), and at no point did Iowa look like they one would expect from the #5 team in the CFP rankings when taking on a team that is winless in conference play. The Hoosiers have now played Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa close… and lost to Rutgers and played very tight games with Wake Forest, WKU, and Florida International, and SIU.
Can a team still be #CHAOSTEAM if they win the games they are supposed to win and lose the games they are supposed to lose, but they do each in chaotic fashion?
This team is as frightening as: Eh. Fear Level = 3.5
Michigan should worry about: Jordan Howard. Howard is averaging over 6.0 yards per carry, and has exceeded 20 carries and 145 yards in every game he’s played in which he has been remotely healthy. He shows really good balance, patience, and burst, and can find the holes that open up in front of him. That last fact is somewhat important, ya know?
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana is last in the B1G in scoring defense, 13th in yards per play allowed, 13th in yards per pass allowed, 13th in yards per carry allowed, 13th in defensive S&P+, last in opponent first downs per game, last in opponent 3rd down conversion rate, and last in opponent scrimmage plays of >20 yards, >30 yards, >40 yards, >50 yards, >60 yards, >70 yards, and >80 yards.
When they play Michigan: This is what the Hoosiers are facing:
Some would see this as a reason to fire Kevin Wilson. I see it as the best argument for why they should keep Kevin Wilson, at least for another year. Right now, the Big Ten East is a group of haves and a group of have-nots. Selling Indiana to an up-and-coming coach at this point would be extremely difficult. Dino Babers and PJ Fleck aren’t going to jump at an opportunity that will put them in the same division as Urban Meyer, Jim Harbaugh, and Mark Dantonio, especially in a year with this many job openings. Kevin Wilson’s program hasn’t been fantastic, but by Indiana standards it hasn’t been bad.
This week: vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2
[After THE JUMP, nobody like Indiana]
Talk about what Ryan Glasgow’s meant to you, and any update on his status?
“Ryan’s a tough, hard-nosed player and he epitomizes what we stand for. Blue-collar, tough guy, so he’s been doing a great job for us all year long.”
He was in a sling today. Is that an indication of his status for Saturday?
“Ryan, like a lot of guys, are working through things. It’s that time of year. It’s that part of the season where guys get a little banged up, especially as physical as he plays. He’s just- he’s working through some things.”
Talk about that time of year for a minute. Everybody’s banged up some, you’ve been at it for a while; is it easier to coach because you’re in a conference race at this time of year?
“I just think when you’re coaching the right group of guys, which I believe we have- I mean, they love what they’re doing. Obviously it makes it a little better when you’re in the thick of things, but it’s part of the game. We have an experienced group that’ve been through seasons before and when you get to November your guys’re banged up a little bit; there’s been a lot of football played, but this is when you’ve got to play your best, so we’ve just got to fight through it and keep going.”
If Ryan can’t go, you’ve already lost Mone at that position. Is there any concern about being a little bit thin at the nose tackle spot?
“I mean, that’s…at every spot on the field you could say if someone wasn’t there- that’s part of the game. You know, you’re never going to be three or four deep at any spot, I don’t think. We have a lot of guys that have played well for us, especially at the defensive line, and we just keep rolling guys in.”
After Hurst, who else would be at nose? Where would that position go after Ryan and Maurice?
“Um, I mean, we’ve played a lot of guys along the defensive front at multiple positions. You know, Wormley’s played both inside and outside, Willie Henry’s played both inside and outside, so I think those guys. We’ve doing it all year long anyways in the rotation, so no matter what’s going on, that’s always how we’re going to play. Whoever’s healthy up front, we’re pretty deep up there, we’re going to play them all.”
[After THE JUMP: The Jabrill Formula]
[ED-Seth: Good morning. We had some server problems this morning. I’m sure Brian will have a different diagnosis but my guess is once we uploaded the photos of these pork bellies the server took a meat nap. We’ve all been there, which is why Stubbs had the idea to have Joe Pichey from GoBlueBBQ (yes, new name, fewer M’s) send us recipes. Good plan?]
I know this will come as a huge shock to everyone, but I love bacon. I think we all love bacon, right? This smoked pork belly is one step shy of becoming a giant slab of bacon. I have been on a pork belly kick for the last few weeks (Not Dr. Recommended) and have loved every minute of it. This is not only tasty and tender, its also easy to prepare. I was shocked when I first made this a few weeks back. Give it a shot and let me know what you think. Don't forget to enter the giveaway at the end.
- 5 LB Pork Belly
- Apple Cider
- Stubbs Pork Rub
- Stubbs Sticky Sweet BBQ Sauce
[Hit THE JUMP to see how you can win a free Thermapen]
when your offense moves so fast ESPN split-screens replays and live action
Unlike some other games I've done for FFFF, Indiana-Iowa is a pretty good way to prepare for Indiana-Michigan; like the Wolverines, the Hawkeyes boast a strong defensive front, quality players in the secondary (especially Desmond King), and a decent-enough offense that looks to move the ball on the ground first.
The Hoosiers played Iowa tough last weekend, closing to within 21-20 early in the fourth quarter before the Hawkeyes pulled away then survived a late onside kick to win 35-27. Indiana's offense doesn't quite look like the full-on Air Raid of years past; thanks to a very viable running game, they're still quite dangerous.
Personnel. Seth's diagram (click to embiggen):
On the Michigan side, Dymonte Thomas is now on the graphic after starting last week and out-snapping Delano Hill by a considerable margin.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread. The Hoosiers took one snap under center the entire game: a hurry-up QB sneak on third-and-inches.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Indiana heavily favors inside zone, which is also the run play they block the best. They had up-and-down success with a few powers they'll throw in as changeups.
Hurry it up or grind it out? See the screencap at the top of the post. Indiana's 19th nationally in adjusted pace, and while they've actually slowed the offense down a little from years past, they're great at selectively dialing up the tempo. No matter what they'll get to the line in a hurry; it's just a matter of how quickly they want to get the next play off.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Matt says the Fed may raise rates pretty soon here, and a cursory googling confirms that some dude says there is a "very strong case" to do so. Lifehacker says this will make the "notoriously low rates" of recent years less notoriously low. If you're on the fence and hate pants, Matt can help. I need one more sentence to get past the logo.
FORMATION NOTES: A few new things. I'm using "heavy" to denote lineups on which Michigan plays four true DL. Without Godin those are almost always both NTs with Henry and Wormley. This was 6-2 heavy:
For a period late in the first half Michigan ran a dime package on which the NT split out. This was a pass rush package without much pass rush and didn't return; I called it "3-2-6 dime split":
And Michigan has been running this one-high nickel package with eight guys in the box enough that I thought I should note it. This is "nickel even 8":
It is frequent on passing downs that feature some run threat.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Injuries biting into the DL a bit now. Michigan was rotating Hurst and Glasgow until Glasgow went out, at which point Hurst had to go the rest of the way himself. I do think they bought him a little rest by inserting Henry at the nose. Wormley and Henry played most of the game as well; Godin got one snap shortly after Glasgow exited. He must be close, but not close enough.
RJS returned to buck. Ross spotted him in passing downs. I called those dime packages; YMMV. With Gedeon out Morgan and Bolden got all the ILB snaps.
Secondary saw a shift as Dymonte Thomas got significantly more time than he has before; I would say he displaced Delano Hill as the starter. Hill played a fair share as well, both in nickel and dime. Second corner rotation was as per usual with an edge to Clark in snaps. Brandon Watson saw maybe a half dozen snaps at nickelback as Michigan tried to save Peppers a bit.
[After THE JUMP: are you disappointed yeah kinda is that rational nah]
“What’s happening today? Anything good? Who’s got a good question?”
/Siri goes off on someone’s phone; “I’m not sure what you said there.”
“Obviously Siri does not have a good question.”
MGoQuestion: You guys threw a fullback wheel route to Sione Houma, and it looked like it had some similar elements to the one Michigan State ran against you earlier this year. How often do you guys look at something an opponent ran, take similar elements, tweak it, and put it in the playbook?
“Well, I think that you are constantly looking at what other teams do. You’re looking at what defenses you’re going to see and how they compare to the defense that either you play or other teams play. Sometimes there’s just times where you’re gonna go look and you’re gonna say, ‘Hey, are they in this coverage during this time?’ or ‘Is this a team that runs similar type looks?’ Ball plays are stolen all the time from everybody and everywhere.
“You’ll see very often you can turn on plenty of games and say, ‘Boy, didn’t they just run this?’ or ‘Didn’t Michigan just run that?’ or ‘Didn’t Seattle just run that?’ or whoever it might be. It’s just constantly- you’re always looking and watching film and when good ideas or things that look like we could use, you always try to use them.”
Is Jake [Rudock] getting more freedom from you guys to make decisions in terms of plays than he had earlier in the year?
“No, I think he’s really just getting more aware of the entire system rather than half of it or three-quarters of it, so the more he’s aware of what we’re trying to do, the more he can get to certain guys faster or maybe where he can get rid of the ball quicker. He can hold the ball longer knowing that something’s picked up where maybe early on in the season he might have thought the protection scheme might not have known that it was picked up, so checked it down quick.
“There’s, I think, more just knowledge base, and as knowledge base grows you become more comfortable, and when you become more comfortable maybe it feels like you’re getting to different things but you’re really just going through and maybe early in your career as a rookie quarterback or first year in our system quarterback you can go 1-2-checkdown. Now maybe he feels good enough to 1-2-3-checkdown or 1-2-3-4-checkdown. I think you see it in the NFL with rookies to their second year. I think you [also] see it with guys throughout the season.”
Jim credited you with the screen game. Can you talk about how that’s coming along and how pleased you are with it?
“Everybody gets credit for that. It’s really- the whole screen game, I believe that you can get a lot of yards in the screen game, and if everybody is on the same page with it we can get different ways of doing it, different formations, different guys catching screens. I think you go get some gimmee yards at times, but then there’s also times when screens are called and they don’t look good [and] it’s just a ball thrown right at the dirt, so you gotta be careful about that with screens. But, nah, I mean, I know he said that but it’s everybody has everything to do with our screen game and it’s just one of those deals that we ran a lot of them at different places where I’ve been and have really enjoyed the different aspects of it. You know, you can be real creative in the screen game. It’s not always just a straight drop-back deal.”
[After THE JUMP: Jake Rudock might be 53 years old, no one really knows]
This was a good idea. Also omigod #23 is Carlton Brundidge; I totally forgot that. [Fuller]
Nothing we can do about Michigan basketball's crappy nonconference schedule, but I asked the MGoCrew who they'd play in a home and home.
|*Cuse plays Charlotte (261st) in the first round.|
Ace: Michigan's non-conference schedule outside of Xavier and the Battle for Atlantis tournament—admittedly some strong competition—is woefully bad. Xavier is the only non-conference home opponent ranked within the top 240(!) teams on KenPom. While you want to schedule some easy wins, that's taking the concept to an extreme while sacrificing both RPI standing and fan interest; games against Houston Baptist and Delaware State aren't exactly big draws.
I'd love to see the Wolverines rekindle a local series against a team that's still quite beatable but at least has a pulse: Oakland. The Grizzlies tend to be ranked in the 150 range on KenPom—they're 160th this preseason—and John Beilein went 4-0 against them from 2008-2012, playing those games either at Crisler or The Palace. They're seemingly the perfect level of opponent; they hung within 20 points of Michigan in each of those games but never came closer than ten points in the final score. Their coach, Greg Kampe, still very much wants to play the series. They're local. They play MSU on a near-annual basis. It makes almost too much sense from both a resumé and fan interest standpoint—I'd so much rather watch Michigan take on Oakland or Detroit than some bottom-feeder from outside the Midwest, and I'm sure I'm not alone there.
[After the JUMP: if you seek a pleasant peninsula, look about you.]