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This Week’s Obsession: If I Had a Spring Game Part II: Defense
lada dida dada dada dada deeda dida dum [Eric Upchurch]
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and what you should be doing for your retirement, and what kind of investment strategy meets your level of risk, it’s really high time you set up that conversation . Also being proactive about this earns you major spousal points that can be spent later on attending Michigan games.
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The Question:
Things we would have wanted to see if there was a spring game but there isn't so let's all imagine
…except with defense.
whoa. I wonder how far
this box in a box
thing can go
(sorry)
Brian: No injuries, the end.
Ace: This is kinda short, man.
Seth: Before every Michigan coach jumps in to say "Michael Dwumfour" I'm going to say Michael Dwumfour.
Brian: Ooooh sorry seth that didn't make it before the end of the post.
Ace: Do not tempt the wrath of Don Brown.
solving this problem with aggression [Patrick Barron]
Seth: Actually Dwumfour just fired off the line so fast he was already in the post before you typed that.
[After THE JUMP: The snap. Get it?]
Spring Football Bits Defense: Thorns and Storms
chomp chomp chomp chomp. [Fuller]
This is the defense section: I had to split these up for length which means the offense bits are here.
So Let’s Start With More on the Offense
Yeah so the McElwain presser on Monday opened up a bunch of questions about who’s in charge of the offense. Let’s clear that up with a bit of Bo knowledge and some CK2 references, because everybody who covers Michigan football must understand those at least.
I think Harbaugh told us how he’s going to do it when he said Bo didn’t have an OC, and everybody—or at least everybody who didn’t buy HTTV 2015—missed the reference. Indeed, when Harbaugh was playing here, Bo had a defensive coordinator (Gary Moeller) and more or less allowed Mo to run his duchy. But there was no like position on offense. Instead Bo had a “quarterbacks coach,” Jerry Hanlon, Bo’s right hand man going back to their Miami days. Hanlon coordinated the offensive staff, and called the plays from the box, but never got the title. They also had two offensive-minded former head coaches on staff in Alex Agase and Elliot Uzelac, not to mention Bo was an offensive (line) coach at heart. With all of those vassals with kingship claims, hierarchy was less important than council positions.
That’s how I think it’s going to work now. Pep is your Hanlon—he’s got his job and if he cares what you call it he won’t say so publicly. McElwain is Uzelac—he’ll contribute his thoughts while getting back to position coaching and waiting for an OC job. Warinner is Agase, the guy we know all too well from a long career on opposite sidelines, here because he became available and we need him. They’re not Pep’s vassals because Harbaugh holds the Duke of O title himself, but Pep is the Marshall, and leads the armies.
There. Now the offensive staff makes sense, or if it doesn’t make sense at least now you know it’s only because you don’t know enough about Bo and CK2, and you need to rectify that.
Oh, and Sam’s apologizing to anyone he sees for not being hype enough on Joe Milton, with the why at the link($).
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Defense in General
Really would like to know how solving your problems with aggression works in baseball [Patrick Barron]
The thing about Michigan’s defense is they return all but two starters from an excellent unit, and the coordinator has put out three top five defenses in three years—one with Boston College talent—so sunshine is to be expected. At places used to such riches they’ve learned to ask more about strategies for using the varied abilities they’ve collected. We haven’t learned to do this yet, so this is going to be mostly chatter about backup battles.
What we want to hear: Now that some of Dr. Blitz’s weapons are coming into their second and third years, how are they being incorporated into the defense?
What we’re hearing: This week new linebackers coach Al Washington met with the press. Washington played at BC and later coached (running backs and special teams) with Don Brown there. He was part of Fickell’s staff at Cincy that gave Michigan fits by going to a 3-4/4-3 under front and gap-switching a ton. He has been put in charge of Brown’s Swiss army knife position: the Vipers, SAMs, Edges, and whatnot, right when third year Brown hybrids like Josh Uche and Khaleke Hudson are coming into their own. Adam, our presser guy, has a one-week-old so he wasn’t there to ask our questions, and now I’ve got a beef with the Michigan press corps for wasting this opportunity for knife talk to instead lob questions about Mt. Rushmore. But we got one thing out of it:
He said this might be his fastest defense ever. What have you seen of the talent level out there?
“Man, I’ll tell you what, I made the comparison of somebody dropping a steak in a tank of piranhas. You see the quarterback drop back and it’s like…man, it’s overwhelming. So, speed is lightning quick, they’re physical, and they’re smart. That, to me, is probably the biggest thing.
“These guys get it. This is a lot of—I think he had two new starters last year. Ten new starters, excuse me. So, a lot of these kids are coming back and they know it. They have a mastery of it and so that just makes them even faster. They’re tough. They take pride in what they do. It’s a great group. A special group.”
Piranhas it is.
What it means: If a Minnesota Twins fan complains ask him what state Ron Gardenhire collects a check in.
[After the JUMP: The Piranhas]
Let's Start Again: Center
An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power-ish forward.
[JD Scott]
ROSTER
Jon Teske (Jr): 12 MPG last year, top-30 OREB rate, rim protector, 118 ORTG(!) thanks to scanty TOs and huge FT rate. 60% from line.
Austin Davis (So*): Played well in scattered minutes here and there. Projects as traditional big.
Colin Castleton (Fr): Stretch five is Wagner except with crazy gumby arms?
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
Wither five-out, and how crippling the loss?
I mean… it'll be fine? Probably?
BIG JON!!
"Right in his grill!" #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/vmDsuLs6ZP
— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) March 5, 2018
Midway through the season it became clear that Jon Teske had shed his freshman awkwardness and emerged into the kind of rim protector and possession generator that this site has craved for years. Once Moe Wagner became a borderline-NBA-level stretch five we stopped talking about it so much. The burning fire never left, though, for the ultimate Beilein C that doesn't need the ball to do a bunch of stuff.
Teske promises to do a bunch of stuff sans ball like nobody since Mitch McGary. Game columns around here more often than not had some note about how everything was going to be fine even if Moe left, usually citing Teske's excellent OREB rate—which would have been tied for 30th if he qualified for Kenpom leaderboards and got significantly better against better teams—and absurd-for-a-big steal rate. Here's a graph from Bart Torvik of 6'10"+ high major players who played at least 10 MPG:
Ray Spalding of Louisville and Javin DeLaurier of Duke are the only dots in the vicinity. Teske's combination of possession generation and sheer size is otherwise unheard of. That goes a long way toward replacing Wagner's diverse offensive skillset. (If you're curious, Wagner is the yellow dot just under the 2.25% steal rate line. Ethan Happ is the red dot at the very top in the middle.)
Meanwhile Teske's meh 5.4 block rate doesn't do his rim protection justice. This site after the game at Maryland:
Jon Teske didn't score but that might have been his best game of the season? I might be serious about that. His ten minutes saw him contest maybe a dozen shots, several of which looked like easy finishes until he got involved. Teske was able to fall off his defender despite the opposition starting their drive as Teske, back to the basketball, recovered on a pick and roll; he was only hit with one foul; he at one point intimidated Huerter into a bizarre miss.
In about 500 possessions against top 100 teams Teske's presence depressed opponents' 2P% by a whopping six points, at the cost of a slight uptick in threes attempted:
Michigan also forced more turnovers, got more rebounds, and gave up fewer free throws with Teske on the floor.
He even managed to survive against Villanova's pick and roll. Very few Wildcat points could be tied back to Teske's relative immobility. And that's the only question left about his defensive prowess: what happens if he plays Haas against an opponent's Wagner? So far, so good—and a brief survey of the league next year turns up only a couple plausible stretch 5s, give or take annual development. Issa Thiam of Rutgers(!) is the only returning player over 6'8" to put up 100 3s last year, and he's a super-sized Just A Shooter SF. Luka Garza, Isaiah Roby, and Juwan Morgan all tried around 50 with acceptable-ish hit rates and might blow up.
Teske is likely to be a defensive difference maker and shot volume asset.
[After the JUMP: Teske O click, Moe 2.0?]
Spring Practice Presser 4-16-18: Al Washington
[image via Maize & Blue News]
[Ed. A—Thanks to Orion Sang and The Michigan Daily crew for passing along audio]
How are you enjoying the experience here so far?
“It’s been good. It’s been real good. Everybody here from an administrative standpoint to a player standpoint has been great. It’s good to be—you know, I’m three hours from home, so family comes often. But it’s Michigan, you know. It’s a dream school. But it’s been really good, so I’ve enjoyed working here.”
You were a Buckeye growing up.
“I was. Well, I wasn’t, my father was, so you kind of get born into it, but yeah, I’m familiar with Ohio State. All respect to them and coach Meyer and what they’re doing, but I was excited about this for a lot of reasons. I’m trying to convert as many family members over.”
How about your dad?
“My dad—my dad was here this past weekend to come to the spring game, the spring practice, and he had a good time. He had a Michigan hat on but he had an Ohio State jersey underneath, so I was exposing him a little bit. But yeah, he’s excited. He’s proud. It’s a great program and great school.”
What did you get out last year with Fickell?
“You said how did I?”
What did you take [away]?
“Oh, well, coach Fickell’s a great person, first off. I hadn’t worked with him prior to going there but growing up in Columbus, a lot of coaches I’m close with were close with him. He’s a great human being, man. Great coach, he’s a winner, so I really enjoyed my time there.
“It was tough to leave so soon because you get relationships with these kids, but—and coach Fickell. What did I get out of it? I guess just another perspective, another high-level coach to learn from how to conduct their business, how to run a program.”
Did it catch you off guard? You were only there for one year, like you said. You’re young. Did it catch you off guard when they called you here and said we want you to coach here? Was it something you expected?
“Every year is kind of its own deal. So, I had been at Boston College for five years prior and that was kind of my—I’ve been all over the place as I’ve come up. Did I think I’d be offered a job at Michigan at the beginning of the year? No, but I didn’t think it was something out of the norm.
“And, you know, my relationship with Donnie [Brown], I’ve kept in contact with Donnie. He’s a big part of that, obviously. That’s documented. But, you know, I’m not surprised about much. Every year is kind of unique, and so it was a great situation, for sure. Appreciative of it, but I’m kind of ready for whatever.”
[After THE JUMP: Don Brown on Mount Rushmore, piranhas on a quarterback, and a child care conundrum I am intimately familiar with]
Spring Practice Presser 4-16-18: Jim McElwain
[image via Maize & Blue News]
[Ed. A—Thanks to Orion Sang and The Michigan Daily crew for passing along audio]
This is kind of interesting for us.
“Is it?”
Just last year we were on the other side—
“Oh, that’s right, on the other—”
How’s it been for you?
“Uh, this has been just a great opportunity and coach Harbaugh has been a guy that obviously I’ve followed for a long time, and the opportunity to come and learn from him and kind of see how someone else kind of does it and puts it together, it’s really been a lot of fun.”
Can you take us through how he contacted you, and how long did it take you to jump on this offer?
“Well, kind of, maybe, I don’t know if he got the wrong number and I answered. You know, I don’t really know how it came about but we got a phone call and was obviously very excited to come and, if nothing else, just getting an opportunity to kind of stand in the background and see how something’s operated, and that’s what’s been really good. He extended the offer and I was really excited about that. My wife and I are really excited about being in Ann Arbor.”
Taking over the wide receiver group, what was the first thing you wanted to teach this group of wide receivers?
“Well, I think there obviously is a lot of talent there, and good, young talent. The thing I really enjoy is being in that room with them. They’re really good people, good young men.
“For us, one of the focus areas has been ability to, number one, get open, especially against all the press coverage that you see. They’ve really worked on honing their skills and trying to do what we’re trying to teach them to do, and yet we’ve got a long ways to go, but at the same time it’s really a fun group of guys and it’s great to be around them.”
[After THE JUMP: Curr Dogg, SEC speed, and how the basketball team could fuel the WR group’s success]
Hello: Jack Stewart
Michigan picked up their second commitment in two days yesterday when three-star New Caanan (CT) offensive lineman Jack Stewart announced his pledge on Twitter. As a Connecticut prospect, Stewart hails from Don Brown Country, which means at this juncture he's all but unscouted by the recruiting services.
Stewart has picked up increasingly impressive offers over the last couple months, however, starting with a trip out west that netted Arizona and ASU offers. Michigan offered a couple weeks ago and—despite picking up offers from Baylor, Ole Miss, TCU, and Texas A&M—Stewart didn't wait long to jump on it. He's the ninth commit in the 2019 class, which moved up a spot to fourth nationally, and the third on the offensive line, joining top-100 OG Nolan Rumler and four-star OT Trente Jones.
GURU RATINGS
| Rivals | ESPN | 247 | 247 Comp |
| 2*, 5.4, NR OT | NR OT |
3*, 87, #56 OT, #616 Ovr |
3*, #83 OT, #1012 Ovr |
These should be ignored, despite what you may have read in the comments on the initial commitment post. There isn't a single scouting report on Stewart from an analyst on any of the three recruiting sites. His ESPN page didn't exist until today; Rivals didn't mention anything about his recruitment until after yesterday's commitment. 247 appears to be the only site that's at least looked at his film and they have him as a decent three-star; it's hard to get far above that before an in-person evaluation without being an obvious monster athlete.
Stewart has solid size for a future interior lineman. All three sites list him at 6'5" and either 280 or 285 pounds, and he doesn't look to be carrying a lot of bad weight on film.
[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]
Spring Football Bits Offense: Sunshine and Roses
Scheduling note: Splitting these up because we got a lot from this weekend. Here’s the offense.
Why so Positive?
I hate to write to the worst of my mentions but the biggest complaint I’ve gotten from doing these write-ups is they’re too positive. There is a very good reason for this: That is what the people with access want to share. Most of the information available to the public comes from the coaches and players made available to the press. That’s supplemented by SOURCES: former players, current players, family members, big donors, local coaches, or those hearing second-hand from them. They are partisans or ambassadors, and have all been told how to talk to the media.
Once in awhile some of this is negative, but the first rule of sourcing is don’t repeat something unless you can verify it, either by getting the same information independently or because you trust where it’s coming from entirely. Positive stuff gets repeated; negative things are usually coming from just one guy. Balancing coverage is impossible, for one, and two, a fallacious exercise.
The best I can do is present the information we have and frame it in context of spring hype. If you take biased information at face value you’re a fool; if you run from bias because it’s not what you want to hear you’re a coward. All agreed? Good. Let’s see where the smoke is blowing.
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Offense in General
What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?
What we’re hearing: From umbig11:
“The ‘SWAG’ is back on the offense! We have playmakers and we have studs on the OL. Shea is playing at a level not seen in A2 for several years!”
Michael Spath talked to a couple players ($) about the how the team looks this year, and got stuff like this:
"I'd put Shea up against any quarterback in the Big Ten, I think Tarik is going to be the best receiver and Ruiz ... man, he's got everything. I'd be shocked if he's not an All-American."
In an interview with Josh Henscke, Carlo Kemp said the offensive line is tough to play against:
"They're really good at every position," Kemp said. "It's a battle every time, especially inside. You've got to be ready to take on double-teams, people coming this way and that way, it's a lot faster game. The o-line is looking really good all across the board. We've all gotten stronger, we've all matured from last season and two seasons ago just with experience playing from the same position. It's been a good fight, o-line and d-line this fall."
What it means: So that’s where the smoke is blowing. Right up in there.
[after THE JUMP: what you want to hear.]
Jack Stewart Commits to Michigan
[Jack Stewart/via 247Sports]
As Sam hinted earlier today the Wolverines have added more help in the trenches, pulling 6’5”/280 2019 offensive lineman prospect Jack Stewart out of Don Brown country:
Committed to the University of Michigan. Thank you to all the coaches that extended offers. #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/OfP36YAr9C
— Jack Stewart (@jackstewartnc74) April 16, 2018
Stewart got his Michigan offer during the big recruiting weekend a few weeks ago. He had offers from BC, Texas A&M, Zona, and just recently picked up a TCU offer after visiting the two Texas schools last week. Notre Dame was also fishing around. He’s a three star to 247, an unranked 2-star to Rivals, and doesn’t exist on ESPN because Connecticut offensive lineman.
Hudl video exists:
More informative update cometh.
Hello: Te'Cory Couch
Lanky to the point of deception. [Andrew Ivins/247]
Despite a cancelled spring game, Michigan gained its first defensive back commit of the 2019 class over the weekend when they flipped four-star Hollywood (FL) Chaminade-Madonna Prep cornerback Te'Cory Couch from his prior pledge to Tennessee. The news broke yesterday and Couch confirmed it on his Twitter account last night. Miami (YTM) had been seen as Michigan's biggest competitor to pull Couch from his UT pledge, but one strong official visit to Ann Arbor was enough to sway him.
Couch is the eighth commit in Michigan's 2019 class, which now ranks fifth nationally and first in the Big Ten.
GURU RATINGS
| Rivals | ESPN | 247 | 247 Comp |
| 4*, 5.8, #20 S |
3*, 75, #25 CB, #272 Ovr |
4*, 90, #32 ATH, #330 Ovr |
4*, #27 ATH, #292 Ovr |
While ESPN docks Couch a star, all three services have him in a relatively tight grouping. Rivals' #16 safety made their top 250, so he's probably lingering around 300th there, which would split between his ESPN and 247 rankings.
Despite the Rivals listing, Couch should come to Michigan as a cornerback/nickel. He measured in at a slight 5'9.5", 145 pounds at the Opening Miami regional, which puts him in the Jourdan Lewis/Lavert Hill cornerback category (as opposed to Channing Stribling/Jeremy Clark types, which entirely comprised the last secondary class). While short and slight, Couch has the frame to add a lot of weight and he plays taller than his listed height because of his long limbs. As you'll see, he fooled at least one scout into thinking he's a six-footer.
[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]
Let's Start Again: Nominal Power Forward
An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: point guard, shooting guard, small forward.
3 and D [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
ROSTER
Isaiah Livers (So): Nominal starter had 13% usage and played like it, almost exclusively taking open shots someone else created for him. Plus OREB guy and defender.
Ignas Brazdeikis (Fr): Scoring machine is already 19 and has already featured in this series at the 2 and 3, for reasons.
Brandon Johns (Fr): More to prove than Brazdeikis but maybe a higher ceiling.
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
[pokes Livers with a stick] hey. do something.
Isaiah Livers's 12.9% usage was the smallest number a Michigan rotation player put up since 2011, when sophomore Matt Vogrich Just-A-Shooter'd himself to 12.8%. The only scholarship player in the Kenpom era to do more than barely pip Livers in invisibility was the senior version of Gavin Groninger, who played 12 minutes a game despite shooting 10% from two and 19% from three. (Michigan basketball: more fun than it used to be.) Livers's FT rate of just above 10 is also in the same "might be the lowest in the Kenpom era" range. 90% of his shots at the rim were assisted, etc.
Livers's tendency to hole up in the corner and produce zero shots for himself or anyone else was a bit disappointing for Michigan's first instate Mr. Basketball winner in a minute. In retrospect, it actually wasn't that surprising. Matt D of Endless Motor provided a scouting report and video last year, and even against high school competition Livers was a jump shooter:
His head is often down when he dribbles against pressure defense though, mitigating his ability to create for others because he doesn't see the entire floor. Doesn't have good enough first step acceleration to create separation off the dribble against guards/wings in a straight line. Doesn't display ability to change direction with the basketball when his defender beats him to the spot or helpside defense cuts off his initial straight line. Does not get all the way to the rim off the dribble based on lack of acceleration and change of direction ballhandling.
That was the case as a freshman and will probably be the case for his career, give or take the usual Beilein development. It's asking a lot to up your usage by 50%, especially when your shot creation is a work in progress.
[Campredon]
On the other hand, Livers was pretty good at not having the ball. His 7.4 OREB rate was Michigan's best mark from a non-center since GRIII, and he's the only other Beilein-era wing even in the frame. While I'm fairly leery about Synergy's individual defensive numbers—Zavier Simpson 73rd percentile with Eli Brooks and Jaaron Simmons 87 and 88th?!?!—Livers checking in as Michigan's second-best defender (outside of PG absurdities) behind Charles Matthews agrees with the ol' eye test. On/off splits can be noisy, but a couple things jump out as likely to be real in ~700 possessions against top 100 teams:
Livers provided big rebounding advantages over Duncan Robinson and caused both teams to operate inside the arc more. He was also terribly intimidating to opposition free throw shooters.
Normally, a 3-and-D wing who's a great rebounder would be a perfect fit at the four for John Beilein. Next year's team… maybe less so. Shot creation will be at a premium and it would take a huge leap for Livers to provide much. His target usage next year is probably 16, not 20. With Wagner gone that might be a problem.
Livers has a role next year. He'll improve, and in certain lineups his (probable) inability to create won't be as much of a problem. His familiarity with both Beilein's offense and Yaklich's defense will give him able time early in the year to solidify his spot. He's got a shot. But he's got a lot of competition all of a sudden, and it's 50/50 whether he's able to maintain his early lead. Upping the "3" part of 3-and-D is his best bet—34% probably isn't going to cut it. 40% would.
Which freshman is more likely to push him out of the way?
The twice-aforementioned Ignas Brazdeikis. Brazdeikis is older and spent his last couple years on one of those elite Canadian prep teams, where he put up 33 points per game against a collection of Success Academies; last week he drove to the basket on Bol Bol and actually scored. (Probably because he poked Bol in the eye, but rubbin's racin'.) For those and other reasons covered earlier in this series, Brazdeikis should be Michigan's sixth man immediately, and if he's able to survive on defense his ability to get to the rack will be vital.
But let's not forget Brandon Johns. Johns didn't take the hotshot prep route and saw his stock fall as a result. He spent large amounts of his time dunking on the best future accountants and deeply incompetent prosecutors that Ingham County could provide. The results were entertaining, at least.
Despite the bigger adjustment Johns faces, he is an even cleaner fit at the spot than Brazdeikis if he comes in hot. Johns is going to be the second-best athlete on the team as soon as he enrolls, and he might give Matthews a run for his money. This is a lot of above the rim for one game:
In contrast to Livers, Johns is extremely aggressive and spends most of his time getting to the basket. As per usual with high school prospects, denominators are few and far between… but apparently he shot 72% from 2 during his final high school season. This says something about his competition level, yes. It also suggests that he's allergic to the midrange. Probably? In 16 EYBL games Johns shot 52/44 with about three times more twos than threes; he shot 68% from the line on 40 attempts. AAU, sample size, grain of salt, etc.
This seems like a bit of a logjam. Can they spread this out some?
A bit. Brazdeikis has drawn mention at two other spots for a reason, and should draw most or all of the backup minutes behind Matthews since the 3 and 4 are very similar in Beilein's offense. It's not hard to get him up to 20-25 minutes even if Livers also gets that many.
In addition, Michigan hinted at some smallball lineups featuring Livers at the 5 late in the year. He looked pretty clueless about what to do on offense at the time, but if Michigan has designs on a position-less Villanova mode, he's going to be the guy they run that with. Johns may be more physically capable of holding it down at the 5 but will be in his pupation year and will look as baffled as Livers was this year. If Michigan gets weird it'll be with Livers.
OUTLOOK
This spot is the most unsettled on the team, in a good way. Michigan has three different four-stars who bring Beilein-style skills and excellent size to the 4, in three different flavors: 3-and-D (Livers), conscience-free bucket acquisition machine(Brazdeikis), and ferocious leaping dunk monster (Johns). Chances are one of those die rolls comes up real nice.
Take this prediction about who emerges with a grain of salt, but I think you'll see Livers start and maintain that role through the year. Early, the freshmen will make a bunch of mistakes on defense that will get them sternly talked to. Late, Livers might give back some playing time as Michigan turns to (potentially) higher-usage guys for a bulk of the minutes. It'll be like this years' Livers-Robinson platoon, except this version of Robinson is really really Not Just A Shooter. Minutes probably get split close to down the middle once you hand Iggy 10 from the 3: Livers gets 20, Iggy gets 20 at two spots, and Johns gets 10.
