Previously: Last year's profiles. S J'Marick Woods, S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, S Brad Hawkins, CB Ambry Thomas, CB Benjamin St-Juste, LB Drew Singleton, LB Jordan Anthony, LB Josh Ross.

Warwick, RI – 6'4" 235
		Scout	3*, NR overall #74 DE
		Rivals	3*, NR overall #35 WDE
		ESPN	4*, NR overall #26 DE, #1 RI
		24/7	3*, #427 overall #29 WDE, #1 RI
		Other Suitors	BC, ND, VT
		YMRMFSPA	Frank Clark
Previously On MGoBlog	Hello post from Ace.
Notes	Twitter.
Film
Senior:

Kwity Paye's sudden emergence on Michigan's recruiting board was met with a ton of skepticism initially, what with Michigan pursuing a large number of more-touted defensive linemen. The sudden flip of a who-dat from BC spurred consternation… until it became clear that Michigan's plan was to take everybody no matter what. Okay then. Let's go.

Paye remains under the radar but has a few arrows pointing up. One: like Josh Metellus before him, Paye found a sympathetic ranker at ESPN. ESPN's model has its ups and downs but they do give everyone an in-depth scout from a pro at some point in their recruitment. When they step out of line on a guy who is otherwise a generic three-star they have a good reason—one not related to camps.

Two: Paye is from Don Brown country. After a career spent largely in the little-scouted Northeast, you can make a case that Brown has the connections and evaluation chops to find and acquire true sleepers. The method of Paye's acquisition suggests that he was no backup plan like MA S Ifeatu Melifonwu, who Michigan flirted with at the end of the cycle. (Michigan apparently passed, and I still wish they hadn't.) Brown offered and got a commitment from him at BC. Paye flipped in late October, when Michigan had a ton of lines out. VT and ND were also sniffing around.

Three: Paye is a refugee, having fled Guinea with his family when he was six months old. Michigan has had a lot of success with refugees in the recent past. Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson were both successes with zero off-field issues. Paye's quotes sound a lot like the stuff Chesson said during his recruitment that caused the "jehu chesson is 1000 years old" tag to spring into existence:

"From freshman year to varsity football, I knew I had to study the playbook, I knew I had to ask questions, I had to make sure that I watched film to understand other teams' playbooks. Mentally I just had to focus a lot more, just try to buckle down and understand everything that was going on around me."

He's got a better than average shot of hitting his ceiling.

That ceiling is fuzzy but potentially enticing. Paye skipped the camp scene entirely since he thought his recruitment was over the minute he committed to BC, so we don't have firm testing numbers. We do have a few hints that Paye's physical package belies his modest recruiting profile. He attended Notre Dame's camp, where he won the 40 for his position group. Here here's Don Brown yelling it at your face:

…unbelievable athlete. He plays tailback as well as defensive end. He could play up and down on defense, which is another sign of his athleticism. I have worked with him personally. He is an outstanding pass rusher, and his size potential is off the charts. I anticipate him being an open side defensive end.

ESPN focuses on his long term upside in their four-star eval:

Very good height with good bulk on a lean, wiry built frame. … Inconsistent, but displays above average first-step. … Demonstrates ability to take on blockers with pad level and when maintains good 'football position' can hold ground one-on-one … Good play speed and range to be factor in pursuit with effort. … Flashes ability to come off and transfer speed-to-power, but aspect of arsenal he needs to further develop. …needs to further develop use of his weapons … good physical tools though still a bit raw … intriguing upside. Could develop and fit well in a hybrid DE/OLB role.

BC's site scouted him after his commitment and noted similar things:

…outstanding closing speed … impressive 'next gear' once he's got an unobstructed path to the quarterback.  … willingness to lay out to make a highlight-reel block in the open field, and the force with which he delivers blows on ball carriers -- those speak to an intensity and a self-motivation that can't be taught or learned. … athleticism is undeniable.

Adam Friedman was understandably circumspect about his competition level but echoes the above takes:

"It's really hard to put an accurate ranking on a guy like Kwity Paye … At a place like Michigan, with coaching from Don Brown, he could really blossom into a special player. … I like his potential a lot. … very physically talented and can really run for a big, built defensive lineman."

Scout ended up the most pessimistic site by some distance, and their scouting reflects it. Brian Dohn:

…good closing speed and he plays with high energy. …. needs to improve his explosiveness at the snap of the ball to put more pressure on the offensive tackle so he can use speed around the edge to go with his power and inside moves. His hands are active and he has good strength.

"Athleticism," "explosion," and "quickness off ball" were listed as areas for improvement. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the defensive end?

While that last take is an outlier the more excited ones are also based on trying to prize out useful information from Rhode Island high school football. In a recruitment this mysterious, Don Brown working this guy out in person and immediately wanting him at BC, then pursuing him again at Michigan is probably the best evidence he's a potential dude.

Paye got into the UA game via fan vote, failed to impress immediately, and was seemingly forgotten about by evaluators afterwards. The circumstances in which he failed to impress were a bit ridiculous, though:

Trey Smith moves inside to LG and dominates. pic.twitter.com/JL65QHCd55

— Paul Fortenberry (@P_Fortenberry_) December 28, 2016

Not only is this dude from Rhode Island going up against a composite five-star, he's playing DT at 230-ish. Rivals described this as "lining up slightly out of position," which… no. Once restored to his edge rush spot Paye started coming around. Later in the week he was winning most of his one on ones.

By the time the game rolled around he'd gotten the hang of things. He had a TFL, a couple QB hurries and generally looked like he belonged. Rivals's Mike Farrell tossed him a mention in his postgame awards as the "Lunch Pail" guy—basically the gent at the game nobody is really talking about who performed well. Paye described his trajectory himself:

"The first day I struggled a lot because it was my first time seeing any of the competition like that," he said. "I had to sit down and think about what I was doing wrong and then just make that adjustment. I started to do well over the course of practice and when the game time came I would say I performed pretty well the time that I was in. I disrupted a couple passes and got to the quarterback a bit."

Paye's performance, combined with a strong senior season, saw his rankings improve significantly. He went from around 1000th on the composite to around 500th. He's now just outside the range where I'd list him as a 3.5* recruit.

Paye told MLive's Matt Wenzel that he was up to 250 as of late May, which would seem to confirm Brown's exitement about his size potential. If he's truly that weight and truly 6'4" he will have no trouble getting up to an ideal WDE weight and could even have a backup plan at SDE. That is definitely a backup plan, though. Brown wants to see if he can turn raw clay into edge terror.

Etc.: is in fact the only Rhode Islander on the 24/7 composite.

Why Frank Clark? Clark was a high upside, sushi raw weakside end Michigan plucked out of obscurity. His recruiting profile is amongst the most bizarre in the genre: he was listed at 210 pounds by recruiting sites and evaluated as a TE, WR, LB, and DE. There was no senior film. Clark grew into a big-time WDE over the course of his career; he felt like a body in search of some instruction for most of his career before a senior-year breakout that led to a second round NFL draft selection.

Mario Ojemudia is another potential comparable. He was a 3/4 star tweener who played a radically undersized DT in high school and eventually developed into a solid DE/OLB hybird… sort of. Then-DC DJ Durkin abandoned the OLB portion of his duties after a rough go early; Ojemudia remained a steady contributor and zone-read defender until his Achilles blew out. Ojemudia always struggled with size, topping out around 250, so Clark is a better comparison.

Taco Charlton is another dude in this genre of raw WDE athlete, but he's 6'6" and exited high school a consensus four star due to crazy leaping feats. Paye is more of a shot in the dark than that.

Guru Reliability: Low. Understandably so: Rhode Island competition and a total lack of camps until UA, which was always going to be Paye being thrown into the deep end and unlikely to be particularly enlightening.

Variance: High-minus. Could curl up and die when playing guys his size or bigger; could be Frank Clark. Background helps.

Ceiling: High. Has an NFL frame and could be quick-twitch enough to draw early-round NFL interest by the time things are said and done.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-plus. Boom or bust prospect who shades towards success because of Don Brown.

Projection: Despite his rawness Paye has a decent shot to play this year. The WDE depth chart currently reads "Winovich/???" and those question marks will either be true freshman or Ron Johnson, who was last spotted trying to be a DT during spring practice. Recruiting rankings suggest that Luiji Vilain will be t he guy slotting in second but a third DE will play during garbage time and in case of injury; Paye could be that guy.

I'd rather he's not, because he's the exact sort of recruit you want to get that fifth year from—a high upside player who will take a lot of time to get there—and the most likely outcome is that he plays sparingly before getting shut down at midseason with a lingering injury. Small chance he beats out Vilain and is on the two deep all year.

Winovich is (probably) around for 2018 as well, leaving Paye to fight for the WDE job as (probably) a redshirt sophomore in 2019. Paye, Vilain, Corey Malone-Hatcher, Rueben Jones, Johnson and assorted freshmen will be in the running; if you asked me right now I'd guess Paye is in a group of closely-matched folks chasing Vilain and is likely to act as the Winovich to his Charlton.

[Bryan Fuller]

Naturally. If Harbaugh can't do camps he's going to do something:

Jim Harbaugh takes on clerk role in Genesee Probate Court

This will result in lawyers dorkin' out:

Flint Attorney Rick Hetherington, who appeared on a child support motion, on the way out asked: "Excuse me judge, but for clarification, I was wondering ... who has it better than us?"

Before the judge could respond, Harbaugh replied,

"I know the answer to that...Nobody!"

There's a 50% chance that guy has a username.

On the Go Blue Guarantee. Michigan has declared that instate students with family incomes of less than 65k a year will no longer pay tuition. This is a good thing. Maybe it's less of a "whoah" moment than it first appears since Michigan was already paying the bulk of costs for students in this income bracket, but taking it to zero means something. It also drops out a bunch of paperwork:

"The 'Go Blue Guarantee' cuts through the complexities of financial aid to help us reach talented students from all communities in our state. I have always believed that talent is ubiquitous in our society, but opportunity most certainly is not. The 'Go Blue Guarantee' helps us ensure wider opportunity."

I have Read The Comments on this, unfortunately, and one of the most common attempted gotchas is weeping for the family making 66k. They're not exactly boned by this move:

Not screwed at all. 120K is next tier, avg cost would be 7K. Scale goes all the way to 180K. pic.twitter.com/0TXjkP2LVO

— Neel (@beigegalaga) June 15, 2017

Tuition slides up gradually as income increases. As it would in any non-insane system. Concerns about families making twice the state median having problems shouldering their burden should be mitigated by the existence of 529 plans, which allow folks who have money to invest—ie, 120k-per-year households—to grow that money tax-free. You have to have a plan, but you can afford to have one at that point.

As state appropriations have shrunk as a portion of Michigan's budget, Michigan has responded by continually increasing costs for the wealthy. They've also tried to up their appeal to that segment of the population. If anything it's worked too well; Michigan's ability to enroll lower-income students has fallen off a cliff. This will help. It is unlikely to have a huge impact since ability to meet admissions standards is highly correlated with family income.

There's not much of a sports angle here unless Michigan starts covering large chunks of living costs as well. Those are estimated at about 15k annually and are covered by an athletic scholarship elsewhere. Since the sort of families covered by the guarantee are also the ones for whom 15k is a huge deal, this does not get Michigan a bunch of free scholarships for instate kids. If Michigan manages to extend this to room and board, then you might see a notably improved class of walk-on. Until then hold your birdman dot gifs about gaming the system.

Athletic budget notes. Michigan continues to live in the black after late Brandon shenanigans, projecting a two million dollar surplus this year. Athletic department budgets being what they are, a tiny profit is all that will ever be allowed. This helps schools cry poor when amateurism is questioned. Michigan can't quite disguise why a good year for the AD is always a 1% profit margin, because the way they make this happen is a PR boon:

Included in the department's projections is an increase in transfers to the university from $3.825 million in FY17 to $7.875 million in FY18.

Does the athletic department need to double the amount of money they transfer back to the general fund? No. Does the general fund need a four million dollar drop in a swimming pool of funding? No.

Michigan's also setting aside four million dollars into its deferred maintenance fund. They need to do this for major renovations—they cannot soak taxpayers by issuing bonds like pro teams—but that is also money that exits that they expensed away with some handwaving. Michigan expects to make at least 14 million dollars profit in 17-18.

That's due in no small part to this:

Conference distributions are projected to increase to $51.1 million in FY18 from $36.3 million in FY17 due mostly to a new conference media rights agreement.

You might be able to pay the players now instead of coming up with increasingly transparent ways of laundering the money.

Get hype for Gary. Peppers kind of talk about Mr. Gary from Don Brown:

Brown was asked Saturday after Michigan’s high school football camps how good Gary, a defensive end, can be.

“Best I’ve ever seen,” Brown said. “Best I’ve ever seen combining speed, strength, change of direction, and the mental curve. He’s unbelievable. The sky is the limit.

“The good thing is I think he understands that there’s a lot on his shoulders.”

It is rare to hear that kind of thing from a coach, and it portends good things.

Other minor roster notes from recent coach availabilities: Grant Perry won't play until his court issue is resolved and Grant Newsome is still expected to redshirt.

It's a contract. The NCPA, an NCAA union with the minor problem of not having any officially-designated employees to unionize, is doing what it can in the current regulatory environment. They've introduced a binding contract that they say is kosher with the NCAA that covers various aspects of the player-school relationship not covered by the LOI. Highlights:

According to the contract document obtained by CBS Sports, the CAP Agreement can be used instead of the National Letter of Intent or with the NLI. Either way, it would cover several areas the letter of intent doesn't. …

A school could be bound to an all-encompassing transfer release for a prospect before enrollment. The document asks if an institution "agrees"  or "does not agree" "to comply with any request for transfer" and "to not restrict the ability" of a player to transfer to any other school. …

A school could not "cancel, reduce or fail to renew financial aid … due to injury or athletic performance." …

A player could negotiate the cost of a remaining scholarship to complete a degree at some point in the future should he/she leave early for a professional draft.

These things rarely get off the ground, unfortunately. High level players are deciding between competing under-the-table offers that supersede the relatively minor concerns this contract can cover, especially in basketball.

(Also, since I just rolled my eyes at Dennis Dodd I should point out that this is a good and interesting piece he got first.)

Da Coach D. I forgot that LSU hired Cajun Brady Hoke after running Les Miles out of town, and have been momentarily boggled by this once again. LSU has all the money in the world, and they hired an interim coach whose previous experience was crashing and burning at Ole Miss. Anyway, Orgeron is using the NCAA's new camp rules to shut the rest of the country out of Louisiana. Michigan canceled a scheduled camp of their own, but that pales in comparison to the hoops Texas has been trying to jump through:

This marks the third announced camp in Louisiana that Texas was scheduled to take part in. And it’s the third camp that LSU has worked hard behind the scenes to prevent from happening. In a phone interview earlier on Tuesday, the local high school coach who initially helped facilitate the field for the Baton Rouge camp expressed pessimism about it happening. “We're in LSU's backyard,” said Mike Roach, the coach at Madison Prep in Baton Rouge and the father of Texas player Malcolm Roach. “Louisiana home cooking may have played a part in it.”​ Roach, who initially tried to help facilitate the camp, declined to go into details on what LSU may have done to attempt to prevent the camp from being held at Memorial Stadium. But his comments proved to be prescient.

After camps affiliated with Texas got canceled at Louisiana College and Southeastern Louisiana in the past few weeks, Mumme acknowledged on Tuesday afternoon there was still a chance LSU or political officials in the state would attempt to thwart Texas’s presence. “Oh yeah,” Mumme said. “But it’s only a day away now. I don’t think there’s a lot they can do. The only thing that can kill it is if it rains.”

He was wrong.

A silly waste of time on their part, and one that does nothing to help anyone. It sucks most of all for the mid-level kids who might catch on at Cornell or Belhaven or wherever if they can just get in front of some coaches; top-level guys don't need and rarely work out at these satellite camps.

But Orgeron's mostly notable for being unintelligible, so that fits.

Somebody did it for me. Many thanks to the Crimson Quarry, which donned its fisking hat in response to this:

Michigan, Ohio State, etc. get $51.1 million next season. Rutgers gets $11.6 million. Highway robbery. Column: https://t.co/63St2XRPod

— Steve Politi (@StevePoliti) June 16, 2017

This saves me a couple hours of brow-furrowed typing. For real:

[Politi:] Big Ten rival Michigan

[CQ]: Ahh of course, that famous Rutger rival Michigan, against whom the games are always close.

This is a thing a person said and was paid for.

I do have assorted comments about the Rutgers thing three years in that will not reference the Politi column:

• The huge uptick in dough raked in by the league is approximately zero percent Rutgers's doing. Rutgers was useful to Delany as he attempted to expand the Big Ten Network's footprint. The 15-million-dollar uplift this year is because of the Big Ten's new national contracts with FOX and ESPN. The Michigan-OSU game, which is on FOX for the first time this year, is a bigger reason for the uplift than every game Rutgers plays in every sport.
• Rutgers is probably worth it in this brief window when they don't get a a full share and cable cutting has not been epidemic, which is all Jim Delany cares about since he's old and will never have any legacy other than dollar bills.
• We should kick Rutgers out the instant they're supposed to get a full share.

Matt Brown addresses the elephant in the room for fans: we get zilch from the Big Ten's constant dollar chasing. We get less than that.

Does the difference between $51 million in conference payouts and $43 million in conference payouts change the fan experience, or even the trajectory of football or basketball programs in a meaningful way? It’s very hard to argue it does, especially if you’re a fan of an already rich program, like say, Ohio State.

Nobody gets a bowl invitation because they got the biggest conference check. There is no trophy for it. It’s a meaningless thing to brag about.

But the addition of Rutgers does impact the fan experience and day to day performance of football and basketball programs. It means fewer games between traditional opponents for your favorite teams. It means an RPI anchor in basketball and baseball. It means an expensive road trip. And it means a lot of unwatchable games.

Again, we should kick 'em out in three years just for the fun of it.

Oh okay. Sympathy for John Calipari is still reading zero:

"They need more inventory for their own network so you just play more league games and then you have more inventory for your network to put on," Calipari said via teleconference Tuesday. "Hopefully in our case in this league (the Southeastern Conference) we stay where we are and if we don't, we'll make it work."

"What you do is, you take away some of those kind of games that have been good to us," Calipari said. "North Carolina, for example: If they go to 20 games we won't have any more series with North Carolina, so I'm not for it."

Calipari cancelled the UK-Indiana rivalry because Indiana refused to play at a neutral site. He can pound rocks.

Some hockey recruiting stuff. Bob MacKenzie's annual poll of NHL scouts and GMs in the run-up to the draft is out. Incoming freshman Josh Norris is a late first round pick at #23; rising sophomore Luke Martin is #69, nicely slotted into the early third round. Michigan also picked up its first new commit of the Pearson era when Phillipe Lapointe jumped on board a couple days ago. Phillipe is former Red Wing Martin Lapointe's son

Etc.: Muckalt hire official. Hooray for (potential) (slight) changes in municipal bonds that would (hypothetically) make it tougher for billionaires to get public money for stadiums. All hail the double team.  Second string OSU TE out for season.

Oklahoma State's mascot is stranger than fiction. As college and NFL OL play diverges, busts become more common. Should be sent to all linemen considering M. Paris, London, and Normandy Beach on the docket next year. Obamas invited to be honorary captains. DJ made a good decision.

Happy Trails: Tyler Shough

Four-star AZ QB Tyler Shough had long been expected to join Joe Milton in Michigan's class, to the point it was unclear who was running second behind the Wolverines, but quarterback recruiting has a way of turning on a dime. That happened last week, when Shough committed to North Carolina shortly after visiting Chapel Hill.

With Milton already in the class, this was a miss Michigan could afford. At the same time, it makes Milton a bit more of a risk if he's the only QB in the class; while Milton is a boom-or-bust project, Shough is more polished and has a higher floor. While Shough had maintained that Milton's presence in the class wasn't a factor, Steve Lorenz's notes on the commitment suggest otherwise:

I'm told he felt that UNC was a better fit from a football sense than Michigan, which can basically be translated to earlier playing time opportunities being available.

As of now, there's still a possibility Michigan looks to take a second in 2018. The A4 camp on Saturday got a lot more interesting all of a sudden.

Unfortunately, Saturday's A4 quarterback camp didn't provide alternative options, and Jim Harbaugh at least indirectly blamed the new Individual Associated With Prospects rule, which prevented Michigan from even trying to bring in the star-studded coaching lineup of years past to work the camp:

“That’s the landscape we have,” Harbaugh said. “Even pro players, you have to do a complete background search on who do they know that is already on our team or we could be recruiting. So we stayed away, just college coaches and our players.” ...

“Yeah, I think it’s silly and ridiculous,” Harbaugh said of the rule. “It’s been that way for 50 years that high school coaches can work camps and college coaches could go work camps at high schools. It’s always been that way. Drastic change.”

While the other recruiting rule changes were steps in the right direction, the IAWP rule is as much of an ill-conceived disaster as expected.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]

It is done. Yesterday afternoon we sent the high-res digital files to the printer, and the Kickstarter backers received their digital editions (Backers if you haven’t yet go here: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/mgoblog/hail-to-the-victors-2017/posts/1913243. Maybe clear the weekend first.)

We’ve been getting a bunch of questions about it so I thought a FAQ would help.

Which coach did Ace call a…?

Not that question.

What is this?

bick the clicture to pake it mig

We put out an annual 128-page preview and feature magazine. The first section is by Brian and previews the 2017 team. The second section is by Ace (wsg Ross Fulton of Buckeyegrove.com) and previews each opponent, or in MSU’s case goes on for 2-1/2 pages with a beat-by-beat account of the program’s erosion with a little bit about a few guys we think might still be on the team by fall…maybe.

The rest are features by the best authors we can dragoon. Adam profiled Mo Hurst and talked to the ’97 team. I went over Don Brown’s hybrids and specialists, and how they’re used. Ian Boyd drew up the Speight offense. Michael Elkon (Braves & Birds) compares this year’s team to other Top 10 outfits that lost everybody. Alex Cook talks about M’s long term future in the B1G East. Dr. Sap met everybody who had anything to do with Touchdown Billy Taylor’s touchdown. Greg Dooley told the tale of Tall Paul Goebel. Craig Ross delved into Michigan football’s dark years.

I missed the Kickstarter can I get a copy?

Why yes. Right now you can pre-order it from the MGoStore. It will also be available in all Underground Printing stores, and a few others—I’ll announce when another store will carry it. If you want to be helpful, go into places you think should have it (like the bookstores at the airport) and ask why they don’t have it…nicely.

We also made the digital edition available from our store. Technically that’s a pre-order too because we’re getting that download set up as I type.

And I’ve just started to put together an e-book edition for Kindle and perhaps iBooks if I can figure out their system in time. That should be available in early July.

I missed the Kickstarter, can I get in on it still or get that sweet Italy shirt?

Sorry once a Kickstarter has closed we can’t have more contributions. The shirt was to entice people to support the Kickstarter so if we do ever make it available to the public it’ll be much later.

Also the Kickstarter backers got a deal for faster shipping from my friend Matt.

You meant the HomeSure Lending guy? What’s he have to do with it?

For the second straight year, Homesure Lending sponsored a shipping upgrade from third class to first class. This means books should arrive days after shipping instead of weeks and allows us to keep shipping charges low.

Also he’s got some major things going to make his personal tailgate the best in town.

Speaking of shipping, where’s my stuff?

Better brace for the [THE JUMP]

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