AKA

Draftageddon 2017: The Peters is Happening

Draftageddon is pre-season All-Big Ten #content given the ol’ MGo-Really-Do-A-Job treatment. We hold a snake draft (1-2-3-4/4-3-2-1 etc.) of Big Ten players and try to build the best teams. You come out of it with a four-deep preseason All-Big Ten. We come out of it primed to cover the upcoming football season.

Previously: The first 10 picks (Hurst, Speight)

Where things stand after 10 picks:

1. Ohio State (4 players): DE Nick Bosa (3rd, Seth), QB JT Barrett (6th, Seth), DE Tyquan Lewis (8th, BiSB)
2. Michigan (3 players): DT Maurice Hurst (2nd, Brian), DE Rashan Gary (5th, Ace), QB Wilton Speight (a reluctant 7th, Brian)
3. Penn State (2 players): RB Saquon Barkley (1st, BiSB), QB Trace McSorley (4th, Ace)
4. Indiana (1 player): LB Tegray Scales (9th, BiSB)
5. Minnesota (1 player): DT Stephen Richardson (10th, Brian)

Keep rowing the boat Big Ten West! We stopped in the middle of the 3rd round so we’re picking up with Seth, who has already drafted two Buckeyes.

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Seth: ROUND 3, PICK 3: Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State

No, not the 6'9 OT who was briefly in Hoke's 2014 class.

Off: QB JT Barrett (OSU)
Def: DE Nick Bosa (OSU), CB Denzel Ward (OSU)

Okay so now I'm definitely getting myself photoshopped onto a rival's uniform. But it's hard to argue the value of this guy at #11. The conference lost a ton of cornerback talent to the NFL, leaving just 2-4 sure things, and a very clear #1 for this fall.

Ward was more or less interchangeable with OSU’s two first round draft picks, liberally rotating with Marshon Lattimore, who went #11 overall, and 24th pick Gareon Conley. His position coach didn’t see much difference between him and the 1st rounders:

“[Ward is] as good as the other two. I played three guys of equally talented ability,” [CB coach Kerry] Coombs said. “I don’t run out a guy who is not as good as they other guys. Who would do that? Have you met my boss?”

That link notes Ward allowed a Jourdan Lewis-ian 15 completions on 42 targets, breaking up 9 of those. Like Lewis, the knock on Ward is his height—just 5’10—a shortcoming (ha!) he makes up for with uncanny closing speed. A junior, Ward’s expected to be among the top corners taken in next year’s draft.

I just got a text out of nowhere from an NFL scout and it read: "Denzel Ward will be a first round pick next year."

— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) June 28, 2017

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[Hit THE JUMP for a defense of Al Borges]

Morgan has the most upside of the guys [Michael Caples/MiHockey]

Michigan announced a trio of additions to the 2017-2018 hockey roster. None of these guys projects to be particularly impactful, but there are enough of them to warrant a post.

One, incoming freshman Jack Becker, was already known. What information exists on Becker, a 7th round pick in 2015, was assembled in the first bit of the recently completed Epic Hockey Recruiting Overview. In a nutshell:

He'll be 21 in January and was only even somewhat productive in the USHL in his final season, when he put up a 16-12-28 line. … very large person at 6'4" … looks to be a project who will do well to get past the third line.

He's a big body who will be elderly indeed by the end of his Michigan career and could turn into a David Rohlfs sort; more likely he ends up on a checking line for the duration.

Grad transfer Alex Roos is either a fourth liner or healthy scratch sort. He had a decent freshman season (10-7-17) with Colorado College but dropped to 6 and 5 points in the subsequent two years. He had not skated for a single game as a senior when he quit the program in January. Most likely situation: Roos is coming to Michigan to actually get a post-grad degree and will walk-on for his final year of eligibility.

The third newcomer is LSSU transfer Luke Morgan. Morgan, a 5'11" forward, had 22 points in 36 games as a 19-year-old freshman with Lake State a year ago. This was a significant uptick from 25 points in 60 games in his only year in the USHL, which may indicate he's a late bloomer. He did score a winner at Yost last year:

Laker forward Luke Morgan decided the outcome with around three minutes left in the game. The goal came off a pass from J.T. Henke, and Morgan shot right behind LaFontaine for the goal.

And hey, we've got a breakdown of that goal. It is Michigan being utterly terrible on defense:

Henke hits Morgan, who’s a stride or two ahead of the chasing Michigan defenders. He’s basically got the time and space to do whatever he desires.

Morgan decides within a stride that what he desires to do is shoot. You can see in the screen cap below that the puck has been release from Morgan's stick while LaFontaine’s almost completely in his upright crouch. I can’t tell from the replay whether this went five- or six-hole, but it found a gap as LaFontaine was getting into his butterfly; he reacted a hair too slow here.

A guy walking into the slot without anyone near enough to even take a penalty with three minutes left in the third period. 2016-17 Michigan, I will not miss you.

Anyway. Morgan will sit out this year and then enter 2018-19 as 21-year-old sophomore. That's a four-year commitment to a guy who may not have a huge ceiling. Hockey scholarships can be split so it's possible that Morgan is only getting a partial ride and Michigan's risk here is low. Morgan is essentially an incoming freshman who can't play this year, so my assumption is Michigan wanted to add a guy and at this late juncture Morgan's 0.6 PPG in the WCHA was more appealing than various overagers still floating around out there.

Previously: Last year's profiles. S J'Marick Woods, S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, S Brad Hawkins, CB Ambry Thomas, CB Benjamin St-Juste, LB Drew Singleton, LB Jordan Anthony, LB Josh Ross, DE Kwity Paye, DE Luiji Vilain, DE Corey Malone-Hatcher, DE Deron Irving-Bey, DT Donovan Jeter.

Guys like Phil Paea tend to burst out of nowhere because they live in the middle of it. Paea's hometown, Berrien Springs, has just 1800 people; he spent his high school years taking on Paw Paw, Otsego, Dowagiac, and the like. He was not on the radar. Paea was such a total unknown that he was getting major offers before he even had a profile at any site. His first mention on this here site came a couple weeks after last year's Signing Day, noting that Michigan, MSU, and Oregon had suddenly come in for this guy right here. Notre Dame and USC(-ish) offered in the weeks afterward.

None could hold off Michigan. Paea committed shortly after a visit on which he was proverbially blown away, and that was that. Paea's recruitment lasted six weeks from first major offer to commitment, with not a waver after.

The quick decision on Michigan eliminated Paea's desire to camp anywhere, so recruiting sites were a bit handcuffed. Paea's definitely a D-I athlete with a burst of impressive offers, but the only football he's played is against cities named after obscure fruits. Everyone seemed to settle on the same conclusion: let's put this guy right on the 3/4 star borderline. He's the #29 DT on Scout; 28 got four stars. He's the #20 OG on Rivals; 18 got four stars. He's on barely the right side of the line at ESPN and about 50 spots away from it at 24/7. It's a shruggie consensus.

I do like a very specific thing that pops up in a couple of scouting reports. Paea appears to be a natural at the weirdest thing about football. Coach Tony Scaccia:

"Phillip has the innate ability to extend his hips and get great leverage and power out of his lower body. He is as strong as you can be with his lower body and he's got some things that he can do better too.

"He can use his hands better, he can play with better leverage in terms of his pad level, but in terms of unlocking the hips and playing with great force, he is as strong as I've ever seen and I've been coaching high school football for 10 years now."

That's not just coach hype, as ESPN picked up on the same trait:

…very good overall size. …thick, sturdy base … excellent playing strength with adequate first-step quickness. … tools to be a stout run defender. Demonstrates ability to fire out with pad level and uncoil and win the leverage battle and when he does is a player with a powerful base that can hold ground. Flashes heavy hands that can jolt blockers, but needs to continue to develop hand usage. … Powerful player that can fire out and push blockers back. … Looks to rely on raw ability and effort.

As did Clint Brewster:

…powerful frame with a dense lower body. …ability to get out of his stance and fire off the ball make him a dominant athlete in the trenches. He’s got the knee-bend and fluid movements you like to see from big lineman. He generates good power from his legs and hips. … comes out of his stance with good bend, pad level, and explosion into his opponent. He’s got heavy hands and can really move people. The power in his upper body and ability to strike people once he gets going on the move is impressive. …nastiness you like to see in the trenches.

Anyone who's read a significant number of these knows how unusual these takes are. "Pad level sucks" is such a high school scouting trope that if it gets mentioned at all in these pieces it's a tossed off "negatives are the usual pad level stuff." (Naturally, amongst these many positive takes here's Scout listing pad level as an area for improvement.) Many touted linemen have seen their careers founder because they could not do the weird football thing where you run around in a crouch and then explode on contact. Paea appears to be the rare guy who's got it down already.

That doesn't necessarily mean he's polished or ready to play. He just does the weird football thing good. Other aspects of his game are as raw as you'd expect coming from a small-school guy who hasn't actually played any DT yet. (When Adam scouted him Berrien Springs had him lining up a yard off the line of scrimmage as a standup end.) ESPN references that in the evaluation above and it's another frequent theme. After catching Paea in person, Allen Trieu returned with a high-upside, long-way-to-go take:

The bottom line on Paea is, he has great physical tools and he is raw technically. For a big kid, he can not only chase and pursue, but he shows quick twitch and athleticism that is rare in his body. He is strong. …plays hard and did that all game despite going both ways and never seemed to tire. Having watched linemen go both ways all season and not always last until the final bell, it was impressive to see his level of conditioning.  

When Rivals took a look at his film they saw him "simply firing off at the snap and then figuring out what to do" and said he "has to learn to play with leverage and use his hands." Later Brandon Brown would note that "he's just bigger, stronger, and more athletic" than anyone else on the field. This is a situation where technique is difficult to acquire because everything works.

The final Paea theme is that he's a Harbaugh kind of guy. Trieu mentioned his impressive conditioning as a two-way lineman, and that pops up repeatedly. Adam noted that he "never takes a play off, and he’s always looking for the ball"; ND's 24/7 site praised his "terrific stamina," strength, physicality, and toughness. Helmholdt:

"He has ideal size for either position, ideal athleticism, and just has that mentality you look for from a guy playing in the trenches. He has that healthy aggression and plays with a level of intensity and aggressiveness that you’re looking for out of a young high school lineman." 

And the intangible intangibles seem in order:

"He's got great athleticism, great work ethic, great family support system. He's a die-hard football kid, he just loves everything about it. He's a great teammate. ... He's our unquestioned leader. All those things added together makes a pretty special kid."

It says something about something that Paea is one of the five lowest-ranked kids in the class. It says this is an awesome class.

Paea is a genuine two-way lineman. Any DT taller than 6'2" will garner some mentions about his potential on the other side of the ball, but in Paea's case his versatility is real. Sixty pounds ago Paea started his high school career as a running back and linebacker, and he's got more relevant OL experience than DT. He was an end after moving down to the DL. When he committed to Michigan the first words out of Scaccia's mouth were about blocking:

"He's a dominant run blocker, a tough, physical kid who is a great athlete for his size and relentless."

Later Scaccia would tell MLive that he thinks Paea has more upside on offense, an opinion that's shared by many. Rivals actually ranks him as a guard; 247 mentioned that there's "no question he could be an outstanding guard or center"; ESPN asserted that he's "a little more comfortable on offense." Brown caught Paea in person and came away impressed with his ability on offense:

…long, strong arms, and a very proportional lower body that allows him to run and move in a way that people his size usually cannot. During one play on offense he drove block a defender into the ground and while the opponent was doing backwards somersaults, Paea hurdled him and kept running down the field. …devastating run blocker. His size, strength, and mobility were very apparent on plays where he pulled. He was nimble enough to get out in front of running plays and powerful enough to put defenders on the ground routinely.  

Michigan has consistently said they will start Paea at DL, and that makes sense. He could be an early rotation piece on a DL that needs depth; he is unlikely to be a quick starter on offense. Berrien Springs doesn't even have a seven step drop in their offense. The OL version of Paea is starting from ground zero in pass protection.

Paea will get a look on offense if and when Michigan has a solid grasp on where the 2017 class is going to play and what the depth chart looks like at DT—ie, if and when Michigan is confident they've got a three deep.

Etc.: Leads haka. Very Harbaugh:

2017 DT Phillip Paea (MI) just told me that he and #Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh had a wrestling match during his visit Wednesday night.

— Brandon Justice (@BrandonBJustice) February 26, 2016

Why Matt Godin? Instate player who lives on the 3/4 star borderline with good size and middling explosiveness. Godin was a couple inches taller than Paea but only got up to 294 by his fifth year. Paea should be able to hit that weight or more in a slightly more compact package, which will make him plausible as a nose tackle.

Other comparables include Terrance Taylor, who was the kind of neutron-star dense interior DL who anchored his ass off against the run but couldn't offer much pass rush, and Will Johnson. On offense, Paea projects similarly to Kyle Kalis as a rough and tumble guard who will move people once he gets latched on. Paea probably won't have the incessant missed assignment issue Kalis had—certainly not if he's starting.

Guru Reliability: Moderate-plus. Lockstep evaluations on the 3/4 star borderline, but a lot of projection from class B football and positional uncertainty. A number of reports were along the lines of "we like this guy but need more information" and then the rankings folk didn't go out and get it.

Variance: Moderate. Tiny school to college is a big leap. Size won't be an issue, and apparently neither is natural bend. Family stuff a positive.

Ceiling: Moderate-plus. Big body with middling quickness does not often pan out into stardom on the DL. Could be a productive snap-eater, especially if surrounded by the folks it looks like he will be surrounded by. Upside as a guard could be very high.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-plus. Praise Harbaugh that this is what the back end of the class looks like. Paea has an encouraging suite of offers, a lot of reasons for optimism, and seems lost in the rankings largely because of his circumstances.

Projection: One of the most obvious redshirts in the class unless he pulls a huge upset in fall camp. From there just about anything is on the table. Michigan will give him a test drive at guard during the bowl practices and/or spring and decide where to go from there.

If he sticks on defense he's probably going to end up as a plugger and rotation piece early, potentially maturing into a starter in his last year or two. He is likely to evolve into a nose tackle based on the roster, which has a number of young three-tech candidates in Irving-Bey, Jeter, Dwumfour, and Hudson. The fit at nose tackle is less than ideal for most of those folks, leaving just Solomon as a pure NT.

Paea also has a wait in front of him if he ends up at guard. Both projected starters will still be around in three years, knock on wood, so Paea's first shot at starting on offense will be as a redshirt junior. Unless Cesar Ruiz busts, Bredeson flipping out to tackle would be the only way to open up an interior OL slot before then.

Just kidding!

Draftageddon 2017: It Begins

What is this: It’s pre-season All-Big Ten #content given the ol’ MGo-Really-Do-A-Job treatment. We hold a snake draft of Big Ten players and try to build the best teams. You come out of it with a four-deep preseason All-Big Ten. We come out of it primed to cover the upcoming football season. Side effects include arguing with a vocal minority who think an unscored draft with offensive linemen is a fantasy league, and bloggers who drafted Ramcyzk, Cichy, and Igwebuike in late rounds finding flimsy exuses to remind people of that. #ItsTotallyNotAFantasyDraft

We have rules: if 3 guys have drafted a position you have 2 rounds to follow suit. Teams are a QB, RB, OLx5, WRx2, DEx2, DTx2, LBx2, Sx2, CBx2 K, P, and some flex players. RANDOM.org determines the draft order, which this year is BiSB, Brian, Seth, and Ace. Let’s begin.

BiSB: ROUND 1, PICK 1: SAQUON BARKLEY, RB, Penn State

Running back is one of the deeper position in the Big Ten this year. But I don't think there's another position where the best player is so clear-cut. And while we Michiganders aren't allowed to use the B-word lightly, watching Saquon Barkley run makes even the most reverent among us mutter "Barry Sanders" involuntarily.

This pretty much sums it up on Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. pic.twitter.com/9yZ6v1ELew

— Todd McShay (@McShay13) May 24, 2017

See poor damn #35 in that video? The guy who seems unfamiliar with how football works? That's USC's leading tackler and second-team All-Pac-12 linebacker Cameron Smith. And he never had a chance.

Barkley led the Big Ten in yards from scrimmage. His 5.5 yards per carry were best among players with at least 15 carries per game. His 402 receiving yards were best among all running backs (excluding Curtis Samuel, who was listed as a back but usually lined up as a receiver). His 14.62 yards per reception was 13th best among ALL Big Ten players with 2+ receptions per game, and was the best number put up by a running back in at least a decade. 

He has straight-line speed. He has almost unparalleled lateral quickness. He runs behind his pads. He runs excellent routes and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's very adept at pass protection and blitz pickup.  He's Pro Football Focus's best returning Big Ten player. Vegas has him as one of the pre-season Heisman front-runners. He did... this?

Penn State Strong! Barkley 405lbs Power Clean pic.twitter.com/1LnAEYqy73

— Iron Lions (@IronLions1) June 29, 2017

He's just really dang good.

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Seth: Some of that Sanders comp might be because he's dodging his first two tackles immediately after the handoff.

BiSB: Indeed. If you recall this from last year, we had reason to believe two things about Penn State's running game; that Barkley was going to have to do a lot of stuff by himself, and that he probably could.

[After the jump: backups and belly rubs]

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