if you seek an image of the most Wisconsin OL ever, enter here
All right: I have been fielding a steady stream of BlogPoll membership inquiries and have put them all off until RIGHT NOW! Feel the excitement!
So: in approximately two weeks the poll's membership will add a selection of blogs that have requested entry and excise those that have gone dark. To apply, send an email to email@example.com with your blog's URL and school of choice (if the blog does not make it obvious). If you've already sent me an email, your blog should be in a special category of my RSS reader already, but I would re-send it if you're paranoid.
Last year the poll took on anyone who wanted to tolerate the vote-entry interface, but as it's a little more established now the criteria for entry are going to be a bit more strict. The Admissions Committee* will be looking for the following things:
- An established readership on the order of hundreds of hits a day.
- An attractive design.
- 2,000 words of college football content per week during the season -- blockquoting articles doesn't count.
- Consistent posting during the offseason, though not necessarily as fevered during the season -- some offtopic-icity is fine.
- Participation in the roundtables and the CFB blogosphere in general.
- Coverage of teams that currently lack representation.
These aren't requirements -- you can have a template and still get in. Think of it like a point system: you get points for each category and if you edge past the line you're in. The most important thing by far is content, which -- despite what you may have heard -- is still king.
Changes should be finalized by the end of the month.
Mathophobes can skip this section. I've subscribed to Smart Football for a while now and recommend anyone with an interest in the coaching side of the game do so as well. The latest post over there is titled "Run/Pass Balance and A Little Game Theory," which makes the tingly bits tingle. In it, proprietor Chris Brown proposes a different way of looking at run/pass balance based not on a straight ratio of run to pass plays but on the yards per play each achieves:
The idea is if you are a very good passing team you pass most of the time, then you run when it is favorable and see positive results without having had to practice it too much. Same goes vice-versa--we all know how dangerous play-action passes are from heavy run teams, especially say a veer option team.
Again, I don't think yards per rush and yards per passing attempt should be exactly equal--passes are riskier than running plays. Specifically, they more often result in lost yardage (sacks) and turn the ball over more often (both fumbles and interceptions). So you should expect your yards per pass attempt to be higher than yards per rushing attempt.
The idea here is that if your results from the running and passing are out of wack you should be adjusting your run-pass ratio in a counterintuitive fashion because the defense will be expecting you to do what you're good at. If your yards per play for both are approximately equal with the addition of a "passing premium" of about a yard per play, your offense is operating with the correct balance between run and pass: you've reached a Nash equilibrium that balances what your offense is good at with game theory considerations. The implications of this can be startling:
Pass-happy Mike Leach at Texas Tech attempted 697 passes for 4857 yards, averaging 6.97 yards per pass attempt. (I also recognize how many of these are shovels and the like but I'm just being simplistic.)
They ran the ball 172 times for 1040 yards, or 6.05 per rushing attempt.
The result? Tech, for all its crazy stuff, is pretty balanced.
What about Michigan? Last year the team ran for 1902 yards on 435 carries -- all quarterback rushes are counted as passing plays -- for (ugh) 4.35 yards per carry. If you include Henne's sacks/rushes, which were all passing plays save for two or three unsuccessful QB draws and a few sneaks, Michigan averaged (ugh) 5.85 yards per pass play, so they should have thrown more... I guess. Michigan's reliance on wide receiver screens that should more properly be classified runs seriously distorts those stats. In any case, it's an interesting way to look at things. Texas Tech is balanced in their way.
And another thing: Smart Football mentions in passing that certain stat gurus harp upon the as-of-yet fictional "yards per passing play" statistic as the most important metric in the passing game, but I think you can take that assumption a step farther. If you remember this graph from way back when...
...then you might have an idea in your head that the value of the yards you gain is not linear. Getting into third and one or third and two is much more valuable than third and four. I've had an idea to measure the expected value of each situation on the field -- third and six from your twenty, first and ten from their sixteen, fourth and twenty from midfield -- and assign "points" to each play based on the differences between each expectation. For example, you have a first and ten at midfield. On average teams in this situation find after the next score (by either team) they're up an average of 3.3 points. That's the expectation. On first down, Chad Henne wings one six rows into the crowd. You have second and ten at midfield, which is only worth 2.7 points. Chad is charged -0.6 points. BAD CHAD!
Anyway, add all that up and you get a measure of A) my insanity and B) offensive efficiency that is accurate by definition. Possibly coming soon-ish. Or late-ish.
Aaaaand another thing: That post keeps on giving.
Q. What's the only way to make Hal Mumme look smart?
A. Put him in front of sportswriters:
I remember someone asking Hal Mumme when he was at Kentucky about how his teams' yards per carry had dropped around a yard or so from the season before. The reporter was incredulous and turned red faced at Mumme's response: Mumme told him that he saw the same thing, and that to fix it he would throw the ball more. The reporter cut him off and essentially called him an idiot, mentioning that everyone knows you run better by simply running more (wear them down!).
Michigan: not so crappy at football after all. Paul Westerdawg has an interesting post up on the states that provide NFL talent. It has the usual states at the top (California, Florida, Texas), but supposed basketball state Michigan is #8 on the list with 50. Ohio has 78 and Pennsylvania 58. Insofar as NFL talent reflects collegiate talent -- an imperfect comparison, surely -- the implication is that OSU's main asset is not OMG Ohio High School Football but the fact that they're the only BCS school in their state.
Thufferin thuttcotath! Lou Holth: The Biography!
A standout is Holtz's long-term position at Notre Dame, of special importance not just because of his devout Catholicism but also his refreshing devotion to strict academic standards for the players. In fact, what stands out is his modesty and adamant belief that football is ultimately less important than education.
EDSBS has your incredulous scoffing covered.
Etc.: Maize 'n' Brew ponders the eternal question "Is a Ball State ticket worth somewhere between 50 and 100 dollars?" and reaches the eternal answer "no"; Bruce Ciskie rounds up his roundtable, accuses MGoBlog of cheating and sucking, MGoBlog laughs at result of UW-UM football... er... hockey... er... basketball... er... softball (yeah! that's the ticket!) game.
You find me a prediction from someone other than a 13-year-old from Aliquippa that projected Penn State winning a BCS game last year and I will find you an excellent supply of those tree frogs you can lick for a gooooooood time. In retrospect the entire thing seems like a hallucination: Michael Robinson, effective quarterback! Tony Hunt, All Big Ten runner! Penn State, Big Ten champs! There's a strong possibility that the only thing standing between Earth and the apocalypse was a referee-related-conniption-fit-causing loss to Michigan that set Penn State message boards aflame with conspiracy theories. But that was the only outpost of sanity in Penn State's ... um ... 11-1 ... Orange Bowl winning ... Big Ten Championship ... season. Memo to self: must quit the frog.
How did this happen? The leading theory, as is only appropriate for the only D-I team coached by an ancient brain-eating zombie, is a lot of really old guys. Seven starters are gone from the defense, as are four of five offensive linemen and quarterback Michael Robinson. In the game of football-teams-as-other-things so capably played by SMQB '05 Penn State has to be Walter Matthau, the crotchety old man of college football. Excellent work in the 60s and 70s, a long dry spell, and an unexpected resurgence (Grumpy Old Men) followed by an immediate flatline (Grumpy Old Men 2). And now Walter's passed on, just like Michael Robinson, et al.
It's reasonable to declare Penn State's repeat hope dead (Jim), but there's life in '05's corpse yet with Derrick Williams, Levi Brown, and the three-headed Cerberus at linebacker. If Anthony Morelli has a Flowers-for-Algernon leap forward, if the offensive line is stunningly competent, and if any sort of pass rush materializes Penn State could do it again.
If they do, though, you'll find me wandering the streets, muttering about bad frog.
Last Year: Managed to scrape by on Tony Hunt's running and Michael Robinson's moxie, but not exactly thrilling aerially. The numbers are shockingly good for anyone who's seen Penn State play over the past four years: 14th in rushing, 74th in passing, and 33rd overall in yardage. But how much do last year's numbers mean? Not much. PSU's nonconference schedule was Gopher-iffic -- South Florida, Cincinatti, and Central Michigan -- and they didn't even play two of the Big Ten's four non-putrid defenses, their own and Iowa's. The results against OSU, Michigan, and FSU:
- OSU: 17 points and 195 total yards.
- Michigan: 25 points, seven by fumble return, and 400-some yards. However, a review of the UFR from that game shows two huge plays given up when the backup safeties blew assignments and a horrendous day from Grant Mason allowing their array of screens and such to work. When not gifted yards by substandard play, they had one substantial scoring drive. That was at the end of the game when Michigan retreated into its awful prevent-a-victory shell.
- FSU: 26 points but only 16 in regulation, two from a safety. Respectable yardage numbers (351) aided by three cracks in overtime.
The jury is still out, and ornery.
Rating: 2. Given the level of accuracy of last year's prediction -- "Michael Robinson is not a quarterback. You can tell because he has no arms," or something similar â€“- you would do well to take this section with a heavy pinch of salt, as that accusation was leveled at a quarterback I had seen play on and off for three years. No one aside from the Penn State coaching staff has seen Robinson heir Anthony Morelli throw anything other than a Hail Mary here and there.
But for the sake of completeness, this is what is known about the junior:
- He was VHT OMG shirtless as a recruit... a Pitt recruit, which he was up until mere hours before he could sign his letter of intent, at which point he switched to Penn State. Pitt was left completely in the lurch, unlike Penn State when a certain other VHT OMG shirtless quarterback picked Michigan several months before signing day. You would do well to laugh contemptuously at any Penn State fan that looks down on Chad Henne's character.
- Blessed with a big arm, he was inserted late in Penn State halves/games as a freshman to hurl balls 30-40 yards farther than Zach Mills could.
- There was low-level internet panic that asserted that Morelli was functionally retarded when it came to reading coverages and finding open receivers before last year's annus mirabilis. After PSU started winning stuff, all problems with the program precipitously disappeared. The rumor persists that Morelli is going to be working with a skeletal playbook and perhaps a Speak 'n' Spell.
- He's a pocket passer, not a scrambler. The quarterback position is not going to produce 806 rushing yards.
- He's going to have to score more points than Robinson did if Penn State hopes to approach last year's performance.
- He's being coached by Jay Paterno.
Taken together, Facts About Anthony Morelli bode unwell for Penn State's chances for a repeat. He's a raw recruit with no experience coached by the most widely reviled son this side of Jeff Bowden being handed the starting job in an offense that has to change drastically to accommodate his talents.
Er... good luck with that.
Rating: 3. Starter Tony Hunt is a trier who can run over the unprepared linebacker but is a long way from a gamebreaker. He's thoroughly average; even PSU's official site says he possesses a "hard-running, straight-ahead" style, though they claim a "big play burst" that has never materialized in front of my eyes unless you'd like to count a terrible angle by freshman Brandon Harrison a year ago. Penn State partisans will no doubt point to his 6.0 yards per carry as evidence of his explosiveness, but let's review: Cincinatti, Central Michigan, Northwestern, &c. This is a case in which the stats are being very naughty and fibbing with elan. Hunt is okay and no more.
Backup Austin Scott was busy morphing from a heavily-hyped recruit into a heavily-hyped total disappointment when a Hunt injury thrust him into the starting lineup in the Orange Bowl. He responded with a career day: 110 yards against the slavering Seminole defense. He then proceeded to tear his MCL during spring practice, though he should be back by the fall. In direct contrast to Hunt, Scott's problem in the past has been his soft-running, left-to-right style. He does have more speed and wiggle than Hunt and could break out this year if he maintains the directness he showed in the Orange Bowl, but given JoePa's crotchety old-manness something will probably have to happen to Hunt first.
Williams go zoom
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Rating: 3. Derrick Williams did not exactly take the Big Ten by storm before breaking his arm against Michigan, but 22 catches and 298 yards over about half a season isn't bad for a true freshman. He can also juke people out of their pants (video courtesy IBFC). Williams is on a stardom vector that only more unfortunate injuries can derail.
Behind the big star will be sophomore Deon Butler, a tiny minnow of a slot receiver who led PSU with 37 receptions, 691 yards, and nine touchdowns a year ago, and similarly diminutive Jordan Norwood. Both are generously li
sted at 5'10" and around 160 pounds and are effective in their way but are prone to dropped balls and have physical limitations against press coverage that opposing defenses could exploit if the offensive line does not keep Morelli clean. Watch for recruit Chris Bell to get some time. A highly touted recruit, he has more size than anyone in this unit and could fill a valuable possession receiver role if he adapts quickly.
As mentioned in the Michigan State preview, this blog lacks the hubris to tell readers exactly what to expect from offensive linemen no one has ever seen play, as will be the case for four out of the five starters Penn State fields in '06. The lone returnee is a good one -- LT Levi Brown is projected as a first-round NFL draft pick easy -- but everyone else is more or less fresh off the turnip truck. Sophomore enter AQ Shipley got spot plays in every game a year ago... at defensive tackle; Junior Jon Shaw and senior Robert Price picked up starts against USF. Sophomore Gerald Cadogan got in two games. This concludes your turnip-truck mitigation.
Employing the standard heuristics (based on age, playing time, and the quality of the unit in front of you), Shipley will probably be good or better. PSU has been pumping him up for a year or so now and rather than let him sit on the bench after narrowly losing out on a starting spot at guard they decided he would be useful on the other side of the ball. Price will likely be mediocre as a senior who hasn't seen any time. Cadogan and Shaw are unknowns.
Last Year: One of the Big Ten's two truly terrifying units with Ohio State being the other: 12th in total yards, 7th against the rush, 14th in pass efficiency defense, and 10th in scoring defense. The linebackers return but it's the turnip truck again for almost everyone else.
Rating: 3. Three starters including the talismanic Tamba Hali depart, but there's still a good bit of experience in the unit. Senior DT Jay Alford started every game a year ago; fellow senior Ed Johnson started no games but that was due to expulsion rather than a lack of talent. Alford quietly had an outstanding season next to Tamba Hali, racking up 11.5 TFLs and 8.5 sacks. He's not one of your Watson-esque man-mountains, but rather a penetrating 1-gap DT in the mold of Iowa's Jonathan Babineaux. Without someone who demands copious attention next to him Alford's big play numbers should drop, but the threat of his penetration will demand extra attention from the offensive line and help keep the intimidating linebackers clean. Johnson is a fireplug DT physically reminiscent of Michigan sophomore Terrance Taylor who saw a lot of playing time as a sophomore (three starts and 20 tackles) and should be above average. DT looks fine aside from depth, which is a concern.
The defensive end situation is not so rosy. Witness these inspiring words from CFN on projected starter Jim Shaw:
Shaw, the brother of offensive lineman, John Shaw, came to Penn State from Rice and made six tackles and a sack last season. Now he'll need to prove right off the bat that he can be consistent.
Ut oh. The bet here is that VHT incoming freshman Maurice Evans plays the Jamison to Shaw's Biggs. On the other side, sophomore Josh Gaines draws the herculean task of attempting to fill Hali's shoes. A middling recruit in '04 (three stars, offers from the likes of Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State), Gaines redshirted then picked up nine tackles behind Hali in '05. "Serviceable" would probably be a great outcome for him in '06, a major step down from Hali's "terrifying".
Rating: 5. Even though Paul Posluszny didn't deserve the Butkus Award he received (AJ Hawk hello what), he's not a player to be trifled with. Neither are fellow starters Dan Connor -- unlikely to miss about a third of the season playing Crank Yankers again -- and Tim Shaw in what's unquestionably the Big Ten's finest linebacking corps.
There might be some concern from some quarters that the new defensive linemen will not keep the linebackers clean and reduce their effectiveness. Something similar happened to Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway a year ago; stripped of Roth and Babineaux they went from all-world to all right and the Iowa defense went clunk. Penn State, however, has the luxury of returning a second-team All Big Ten DT in Alford and getting back a talented senior in Ed Johnson; Iowa was starting newborn babes -- big newborn babes, but still. With an extra year of experience and a full tour of duty from Connor this unit may well increase their production. They'll have to if anyone is to pick up Hali's slack.
Rating: 3. All four starters from a year ago are gone and question marks abound. One corner will be manned by uber-recruit Justin King, who split his time between offense and defense a year ago in an effort to prop up the sagging PSU passing game. The other is in the hands of sophomore Tony Davis, who was unknown when he committed to Penn State a couple years ago but apparently had interest from various schools around the Big Ten, including Michigan. King will probably be a star at some point, but a year after playing mostly wide receiver probably isn't the time; Davis is a mystery. There's going to be a dropoff from Zemitas and Phillips.
New safeties Donnie Johnson and Nolan McCready are journeyman seniors with little playing time. There's no shame in getting stuck behind Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry, but it's unlikely either can replicate the performance of the departed starters from a year ago. If they're mostly staring down third-and-long after the linebackers eviscerate a running back, however, they should do fine.
Kickers & Coverage
Both kickers return from a year ago. Punter Jeremy Kapinos was eminently average with his 41.3 yard gross and 34.9 yard net averages, both of which placed him right around 40th in the country. Kicker Kevin Kelly was fairly good a year ago, hitting 16 of 23, but doesn't have a huge leg and occasionally clunks one -- think Rivas.
Non-Conference: Weak. One good game @ Notre Dame, one designated MAC patsy in Akron, and two embarassments against Youngstown State and Temple.
Conference: PSU misses Iowa and Indiana; the key games will be the Big Ten opener in Columbus and their attempt to snap a seven-game, nine-year losing streak against Michigan at night in what promises to be a howling maelstrom of a Beaver Stadium.
We're Sure About
Run Defense. It probably won't be quite as intimidating with the meh safeties, but the line is full of competent-to-good run defenders and the linebackers are without peer in the midwest and perhaps the nation. Running against Penn State will be a chore.
Derrick Williams. He good.
We Have An Idea About
Pass Rush. It's going to drop off significantly without Hali, who not only drew double-teams but beat them consistently. There appears to be no one on the roster who can replace half his production.
Anthony Morelli. He will struggle early, especially with a patchy offensive line. A big arm is nice but not everything and I tend to believe the Internet undercurrents that say he's struggling with the playbook and such; Jay Paterno still hasn't coached a quarterback who could actually throw -- Robinson got by on his legs more than anything -- and the streak contues thi
s year. Probably.
We Have No Clue About
Offensive Line. Four new starters indicates bad, but with Levi Brown occupying the all-important LT spot and surrounding counties and Shipley looking like a player they could be acceptable.
An Embarassing Prediction, No Doubt
The defense gets enough pass rush from the linebackers to make up for Hali's absence and manages to scrape by early in the season. Morelli is intermittently brilliant but occasioinally boneheaded; Hunt lives up to Lion fans' expectations even in the face of a meh offensive line. This team still isn't a BCS contender unless a lot of things break vastly right -- beyond the reasonable expectations of this category -- but could finish 9-3 with some luck.
Morelli throws a ton of picks and Hunt's production is entirely reliant upon the offensive line, which is awful. Offense drops off a cliff. The defense is still good but isn't the sort to laugh in the face of terrible field position ten times a game and concedes too many points for the Keystone Kops on the other side of the ball to overcome. Only wins on the schedule are the five that come by default and maybe one more; PSU finishes 6-6.
The PSU defense will still be good, but great (again) is asking too much. When you can choke out the opponent's run game consistently you are going to be one of the better defenses in the country, but I would be surprised if Penn State got much of anything from their defensive ends this year. Penn State will have to generate much of their pass rush via the blitz, which will leave them open to exploitation and drive that pass efficiency defense down, especially with a raw secondary that will spend the first half of the season finding its legs.
The offense? All signs point to a reversion to well-below-the-mean.
- The offense's effectiveness from a year ago is greatly overstated by the numbers because of the terrible defenses it played.
- There is one returning starter on the offensive line.
- There's a new quarterback.
- The same guys who drove this bus off a cliff the past few years are still around.
Hope exists in the form of Morelli's recruiting rankings, Levi Brown, and Derrick Williams, but recent evidence indicates that the only time in the last five or so years Penn State has been able to cobble together a semblance of offense has been with veterans everywhere and a pounding ground game. This offense figures to have neither.
A step back is coming, though it won't be as disastrous as the '03-'04 seasons. A large portion of the blame for those years falls squarely on the shoulders of noodle-armed Zach Mills and Robinson, who were so inept that passing was not an option for two solid years. I do think Morelli will disappoint, but he would have to implode to send the PSU offense all the way back to the bad old days.
Wins: Akron, Youngstown State, Temple, Illinois, Northwestern
Probable Wins: @ Minnesota, @ Purdue
Tossups: Michigan State, @ Wisconsin
Probable Losses: @ Ohio State, Michigan, @ Notre Dame
No Chance: None
Adding it up yields 8-4 .
I'll be back Wednesday.
RIP Randy Walker. Northwestern's head coach died yesterday after a heart attack. He was 52. His accomplishments should not be overlooked. Keeping a program like Northwestern competitive is an achievement not accomplished by many. SMQB has a requiem. RTWT.
The hockey schedule is out but kind of sucks. Michigan's nonconference games that aren't the Showcase or GLI are against UConn, Alabama-Huntsville, and Northeastern, tomato cans all. Nine of the first ten games are at home -- thirteen of the first fourteen if you count exhibitions -- and the last six are not, though two are at the Joe.
As of right now, the UConn game is scheduled directly opposite the football game @ Penn State but I bet you a dollar that start gets moved to 3:00.
Um, yeah... if they handed out prizes for the most reasoned response to Michigan's pending Reed Baker Era, Maize 'n' Brew would come first. And even he said the following:
[AA News beat guy Nathan] Fenno's got the following guys as Michigan's top targets: Manny Harris (Detroit), Dante Jackson (Greenfield, Ohio), Scott Martin (Valparaiso, Ind.) and Demetri McCamey (Westchester, Ill.).
Fenno doesn't get it. I've already started combing the Southwest Chicago State rosters to find our next big recruit.
In any case, Dave has put together the most complete profile of the kid you're likely to see anywhere.
Less reasoned are RBUAS...
This is like if the UM hockey team started recruiting extras from "Mighty Ducks 2".
(No Tim Cook jokes, please) ... and Joey, well, commenter Anthony's desperate hope that he found himself away from the internets or at least sharp things went unfullfilled:
Is Isiah Thomas suddenly running this team?
The collective impression left is one of straws and camel backs. The chances that Baker is going to be anything other than dead weight on the roster are extremely small, but since he's left Michigan in the postion where Jerrett Smith is the only alternative at point guard he may be a contributor this year. That's damning enough, but the mere fact that Amaker was willing to offer a scholarship to a player that couldn't find a home anywhere in D-I without even seeing him play is beyond ridiculous. He's mortgaging what little future Michigan has -- only two open scholarships in '07 and the third is filled with a point guard -- for an extra 1% chance to make the tournament as an 11 seed this year.
The implication is clear: without an NCAA berth Amaker believe he's gone and knows that once he loses this job not even the likes of the Citadel, Birmingham Southern, and Air Force would consider him for another position. The only way he can salvage his job is to edge into the tournament this year, but in attempting to do so he's condemning Michigan to more years in NIT purgatory by filling the roster with the Gibsons, Bakers, and Wrights of the world.
So the fan is put in an awkward position: ripping the program's recruits before they appear on campus, wincing at every victory, and fervently hoping that the team does not perform well enough to save Amaker's job. Basketball coverage will not be heavy this fall.
Should Amaker be fired? Hell yes. I wish Gibson, Baker, and Wright all the success in the world starting in 2007, but we must destroy this program in order to save it.
You're going to have to endure one last blast of off-topic blogging for a few days starting July 27th. Porque? Well, um... remember how I admitted to liking televised poker? This is largely because I play. A couple days ago I finished turning a $55 entry to a step tournament into a berth in...
...The Main Event. So I'm all goin' and stuff and will relate my experiences in this space, because how often does one get to sit down at the world's biggest poker tournament? If you're me, probably once. I hope I last long enough to make it worth writing about. Also I hope I win.
Don't bust out on the first hand.
If at any point I am sitting with Johnny Chan and he folds to my raise, immediately start parroting the scene in Rounders in which Mike McD convinces himself he should go to the WSOP after bluffing out Chan:
Chan: Did you have it?
Mike: Sorry, John, I don't remember.
I'll do both roles here, Chan in a high-pitched falsetto and Mike in a rumbling basso worthy of John Wayne. After four or five times, I'll grab a couple chips -- pink for Chan, natch -- and act out the lines as a puppet drama. I'll continue until Chan throws his orange at me.
If at any point I find myself being needled by Mike Matusow, launch into following soliloquoy:
Hey, Mike, do you remember Loveline? Adam Carolla, Dr. Drew, sexy sexies, good times all around? Yeah. Great show. Remember the times when some twentysomething girl would call in and describe her incredible/improbable/outrageous sexual exploits to the rapt crowd? Yeah. It got to the point where they wouldn't ask the girl if she had been abused, but when it happened?
Yeah. I'm just sayin'. It's like Clue. Pick the relative, place, and orifice. I say Uncle Sully, rec room, mouth.
If at any point I find myself to the right of Phil Ivey I will fold until the table breaks up. Unless Phil Ivey is reading this, in which case I will get aces every hand.
If I get far enough to actually be on TV, and find myself in a big TV-worthy hand, I will tell the world that Lloyd Carr needs to stop punting on fourth and medium when a first down seals the game.
Over at EDSBS. This one is an exercise in vanity... I'm not sure why anyone would care about autobiographical details but I'll play along. Everyone loves talkin' about themselves.
1. Education. List the region of the country you were born in, what universities you attended and at least one other you would have attended if your alma mater didn't exist.
Er. "Region of the country" is "outside of it." Dad working for an oil company == birth certificate that says "Saudi Arabia" on it and a giant pain in the ass whenever I cross a national border.
I attended Michigan and got two computer engineering degrees from the place. If Michigan didn't exist I would likely have ended up at a reasonably priced dork factory that isn't the kind of place that cares whether or not you were in the National Honor Society and all that crap. Illinois? Northwestern? Georgia Tech? None of these seem like remotely acceptabe answers.
2. Sports Affiliations. List your top 10 favorite teams in all of sports in descending order. For instance, your alma mater's football team may be number 1, but perhaps there is a professional team that squeezes in before you get to your alma mater's lacrosse team.
Descending as in in least important at top or most? I dunno. Anyway, there are tiers in this one:
Life And Death
1. Michigan Football
2. Michigan Hockey
More Important Than Voting
3. Detroit Pistons
4. Edmonton Oilers
5. USA Soccer
Special Holding Cell For Team Without Hope Or Accomplishments Coached By Man Without Fashion Sense Or Recruiting Ability That May Once Have Held Great Interest But That Seems So Long Ago Now I Mean Seriously
6. Michigan Basketball
7. Detroit Lions
8. Denver Broncos
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Michigan Baseball
3. Movies. List the movie you've watched the most, your favorite sports related movie, the movie you secretly love but don't like to admit it (possibly a chick flick or b film), and the movie you were (or still are) most looking forward to from this summer's season.
Most watched: Probably a tie between the Big Lebowski the answer to part B. This answer can come as no surprise to anyone who's caught an "in the parlance of our times" reference in this space.
Favorite sports movie: Rounders. Even if you (quite reasonably) contest the idea of poker as sport, Rounders is a sports movie down to the opening/closing thrilling "game scenes" against the recurring enemy. In Rounders it's John Malkovich with a ludicrous Russian accent and a propensity for making pelvic thrusting motions, which officially makes him the best sports movie villian ever. Ever-ever.
Shame flick: Does Rush Hour count? Probably not, since it has Jackie Chan in it. How about The Rock? A thoroughly dumb Jerry Bruckheimer movie starring Nicholas Cage has to be eligible for this category.
I have no idea what movies are coming out this summer, but I did hear tell that they called Samuel L. Jackson in to actually say "THERE ARE MOTHERFUCKING SNAKES ON THIS MOTHERFUCKING PLANE." That's awesome and enough to make one want to see Snakes On A Plane.
4. Music. List your favorite band from middle school, high school, college and today. Also, as with the movies, include the song you secretly love but don't like to admit. If Nickleback is involved in any of these responses, please give a detailed explanation as to why, god, why.
Middle school: I don't know if I had a favorite band per se, but I did listen to the two competing rap stations almost exclusively. The first album I ever bought was the soundtrack to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Movie and my favorite song on it was T.U.R.T.L.E Power, so whoever did that probably.
High School: They Might Be Giants.
College: Ben Folds Five? Or perhaps Robert Earl Keen?
Now: Andrew Bird. Or Interpol or Ted Leo.
Shamelove song: Toxic, Britney Spears.
5. Books. Favorite book you've finished, worst book you've finished and the book you really should read but haven't gotten around to it.
Worst: Things Fall Apart. Actual line that burned itself into my head due to sheer crappiness and has persisted in my memory for more than a decade: "Yams were a man's crop, the king of crops." Add in Chinua Achebe's infuriating career built largely upon declaring Heart of Darkness racist and viola: extreme dislike.
Should Read: I can think of nothing I have some deep desire to read that I have been somehow prevented from acquiring. I should probably expand the Stanislaw Lem I've consumed.
6. Travel. Favorite city you've every been to and the one place you still must visit before you shuffle off this mortal coil.
Favorite city: Galway, Ireland
Unrealized Destination: I have this idea that a friend and I should travel from the very top of Chile all the way down to Tierra Del Fuego and write a travel book about it called "Two Idiots Versus Chile."
7. What do you love most about college football in 20 words or less?
Sitting in Michigan Stadium 45 minutes before the opener; everything seems possible and only sunburn is definite.
[A quintessential Michigan fan answer that avoids the actual playing of the games, eh? -ed. Shut up. And go away, you're Kaus's gimmick.]
I don't think anyone's picked up on this distressing nugget of news yet, but it's pretty stark. When I was previewing Michigan State I ran my eye across the vast array of stats provided by the Big Ten website and found this in the "conference only" section:
TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plys Yards Avg TD Yds/G
1. Ohio State.......... 8 646 1523 525 2169 4.1 12 271.1
2. Penn State.......... 8 948 1595 573 2543 4.4 16 317.9
3. Michigan............ 8 1167 1868 568 3035 5.3 18 379.4
4. Michigan State...... 8 1567 1670 536 3237 6.0 31 404.6
5. Iowa................ 8 1018 2292 627 3310 5.3 21 413.8
6. Purdue.............. 8 1389 2047 618 3436 5.6 22 429.5
7. Minnesota........... 8 1478 1986 563 3464 6.2 31 433.0
8. Indiana............. 8 1715 1821 583 3536 6.1 35 442.0
9. Northwestern........ 8 1699 2062 642 3761 5.9 28 470.1
10.Wisconsin........... 8 1917 1913 613 3830 6.2 28 478.8
11.Illinois............ 8 2090 1909 601 3999 6.7 46 499.9
Great googly moogly! The horrendous, Jaren Hayes-featuring Michigan State defense was the fourth best in the conference despite yielding over 400 yards a game! "Three yards and a cloud of dust" was more like six and change. Exactly three teams could be described as "not total crap" with even the slightest degree of accuracy, and one of them was Michigan's totally mediocre unit. The mind boggles. The national rank (in yardage) of each Big Ten defense over all games:
5. Ohio State
12. Penn State
Middling To Bad-Ish
This Fortune Cookie Says "Onside Kicks Are Your Friend"
87. Michigan State
(I totally should have saved "great googly moogly" for this bit. Er, how about...)
Sweet fancy Moses! What happened? Some hypotheses:
- The sudden spread-happiness of the Big Ten increased the efficacy of previously inept offenses like Indiana and Illinois. Meanwhile, its tendency to lengthen the game with scads of incomplete passes gave their defenses even more chances to play matador.
- Laurence Maroney and Brian Calhoun.
- Generally solid defenses like Iowa and Wisconsin were gutted by graduation; Purdue's usually decent unit was caught up in the team-wide Boiler implosion.
- Ancient quarterbacks. Every team outside of Indiana and Illinois started the year with an quarterback with at least a half-dozen games under his belt.
- Jim Herrmann.
Maroney, Calhoun, and Herrmann are gone, but the only quarterbacks on their way out are Michael Robinson, Brandon Kirsch, and Brett Basanez, and Kirsch lost his job at midseason anyway. No team has decided to abandon the spread. The two defenses that were actually good lost nine (OSU) and seven (PSU) starters. It's unlikely that any of the bottom-feeders miraculously find some backbone. All signs point to it raining touchdowns in the Big Ten next year.
...and this will be an Onion story too implausible to actually be funny.
"Everything happens for a reason."
That's the moldy maxim Reed Baker heard again and again as one college after another crushed his basketball dreams.
On Wednesday, Baker realized his consolers were right.
The former Bishop Verot High School standout accepted a full basketball scholarship from the University of Michigan, just hours after returning from a whirlwind visit to the Ann Arbor campus.
Oh, so we got a point guard? Cool. Can't be worse that Jerrett Smith, and he's probably pissed after some misunderstanding with Duke or UConn or UNC...
Signing with the Wolverines ends a seven-month odyssey for Baker, who first signed with The Citadel in November.
In March, however, coach Pat Dennis resigned and the school made it clear Baker was no longer a desired commodity, releasing him from his commitment.
REJECTED BY THE CITADEL? Surely this is some sort of misunderstanding and the Citadel is ruing their rash decision to sign this late bloomer. I bet the latter half of this Odyssey of his is filled with more imp--
Baker landed at Birmingham Southern in April but learned in late May that the school would be dropping from NCAA Division I status to Division III in 2007-08 because of finances.
Oh God. On the school totem pole you have your "U of" at the top, your "State" just under it, and then quite a long way before the "Directional State U" schools. Birmingham isn't even a state. It may just be some guy's house. Baker is good enough to play for a team composed of the southern portion of some guy's house. In D-III. There can be no more indignities, can there?
Earlier this month, the Air Force Academy offered Baker a full scholarship but pulled it after learning he had a peanut allergy, which violated the academy's extensive physical requirements.
I have an allergy to point guards late of service academies and Directional Some Guy's House U, but I find Tommy Amaker somewhat less strict with his extensive physical requirements. Well, at least they scouted the guy; maybe he's a diamond in the--
"He said I was the first guy he gave a scholarship to without seeing him play," Baker said of Amaker. "He said he liked my court savvy and the intelligence of my game."
AAAAAAAAAARGH. AAAAAAAARGH. Meet the new Ba, same as the old Ba.
Blah blah blah hope for Amaker and Baker's success blah blah blah let this in no way be construed as a shot at what may indeed be a fine young man blah blah blah. Wake me up when we're having the mock turtleneck bonfire on State Street (NOT Directional Some Guy's House Street.)
If you were looking for a brief summary of the last thirty years of Spartan football, 2005 was your lucky year. It had everything you could want: a humiliating 35-point loss to Northwestern, heartbreak at the hands of Michigan, an incredible -- in the "this is too strange to possibly believe" sense -- special teams meltdown against an OSU team they should have beat, an unexpected victory over a quality opponent (Notre Dame), and a final collapse that prevented Michigan State from going to a bowl game -- one that involved a loss to Purdue and a 41-18 waxing at the hands of Minnesota. It had just the right mix of burgeoning hope with soul-mangling incompetence, the right mix of surprising success with surprising failure, the right mix of Duffy Daughterty with Bobby Williams. Michigan State's porridge is never too hot, never too cold, always just mediocre. On a micro level MSU is completely unpredictable week-to-week. On a macro level it's always Same Old Spartans.
And if you are the type of MGoBlog reader I need to consider a restraining order against, you recognize the previous paragraph as a near-doppleganger of last year's Spartan intro:
If you were looking for a brief summary of the last thirty years of Spartan football, 2004 was your lucky year. It had everything you could want: a loss to Rutgers, heartbreak at the hands of Michigan, two totally unexpected crushings of quality opponents (51-17 over Minnesota and 49-14 over Wisconsin), and a final collapse that prevented Michigan State from going to a bowl game--one that involved giving up 37 points to one of the worst offenses in the nation and a late-game implosion against Hawaii. It had just the right mix of burgeoning hope with soul-mangling incompetence, the right mix of surprising success with surprising failure, the right mix of Duffy Daughterty with Bobby Williams. Michigan State's porridge is never too hot, never too cold, always just mediocre. On a micro level MSU is completely unpredictable week-to-week. On a macro level it's always Same Old Spartans.
Ah, Michigan State, how my blogger self loves thee: not only was that the most accurate thing I've ever written, but I may never have to write a new Michigan State intro for as long as I live. Rotate in Rutgers, Lousiana Tech, Hawaii, or Central Michigan in the "humiliating loss" slot, occasionally move Michigan into the "unexpected victory" slot, find the most hilarious available collapse, lather, rinse, and repeat. In the rare event Michigan State finishes more than a couple games away from .500, simply blow it off as random chance and project a reversion to the mean the next year. Viola: preview.
Is there anything that could upset the natural balance of things? Yes. He wears number 5, but he can't kick or play defense.
Last Year: Outstanding both running and passing the ball. Fifth in total offense and eighteenth in scoring despite having no reliable field goal kicking. A balanced attack that finished in the top 20 in both rushing and passing. The good witch of the Michigan State team, and one that returns every skill position player save The Severely Average Jason Teague. The line? Er.
I pull the trigger until it goes "click."
Rating: 5. Last year Drew Stanton (AKA "The Jesus") made a remarkable transformation from a crazy-legged scrambler who happened to occasionally throw with great accuracy to a great quarterback, period. He is accurate in the pocket or on the run, in total command of the Spartan offense, and still capable of taking off when the situation demands it. The numbers show it: Stanton finished 10th nationally in passer efficiency. The win-loss... eh, not so much, but one can only do so much when you are playing opposite a defense as offensive as Michigan State's. If you require validation outside of his collegiate stats, Mel Kiper projects him as a top-five pick in next year's NFL draft.
By cutting down on Stanton's scrambling MSU managed to keep him mostly healthy in '06 after an injury-plagued '05 season that burned the words "Damon Dowdell" and "Lousiana Tech" deep into the nightmare psychoses of Spartan fans worldwide, but Stanton picked up some sort of nagging hand or arm injury late in the year that affected his performance. The candybones reputation he picked up after his first year starting may or may not be justified, but it goes without saying that the Spartans without a healthy Stanton are only a threat to John L. Smith's job security. Backup Brian Hoyer has gotten good reviews and was a mildly touted recruit a couple years ago. He's not Stanton, but he isn't Dowdell either.
The little crapper that could.
Rating: 5. Even though John L. Smith in his infinite weirdness gave then-freshman Javon Ringer the most unflattering nickname in the history of sport when he called Ringer "That Little Crapper" after one of his more impressive performances a year ago, Big Ten defenses would do well to Beware The Crapper. A combination of academic issues and a poorly-timed knee blowout scared off major programs, but the chance Michigan State took on Ringer looks to be paying off in spades. Despite splitting time with both The Severely Average Jason Teague and 230-pound bulldozer Jehuu Caulcrick, Ringer led the high-powered Spartan offense with 817 yards on just 122 carries. For those scoring at home, that's 6.7 yards per carry. Yes, there is a caveat: an awful lot of those yards came against the easily-befuddled defenses of Illinois, Nortwestern, and Indiana. But if you're going to downgrade his performance based on that you must also take into account his 4.8 YPC against Ohio State, the top run defense in the country last year. Ringer is for real. With an extra year of experience and the vast majority of Teague's carries he'll make a name for himself.
The backup running back is a bit of a surprise: redshirt freshman AJ Jimmerson. Jimmerson was one of the jewels of last year's recruiting class and was clearly the second option behind Ringer during the spring, passing Jehuu Caulcrick and running for 128 yards in the spring game. Jimmerson's a bigger back with the patience to set up his blocks, an effective but not dynamic runner.
The aforementioned Jehuu Caulcrick must be an atrocious linebacker, because his skills at running back are only middling. He's a load to bring down at 230-some pounds but does not have the bounce or change of direction to deal with defensive players who aren't blocked like they should be -- probably a major issue this year. His workload will be limited to short yardage for the most part.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Rating: 4. 6'6" man-beast Matt Trannon returns for his Brooks Bollinger "Didn't You Graduate In 1894?" Sendoff Tour. If anyone passes the look test on the Spartan team, it's Trannon, a mortal lock for Kirk Herbstreit's annual uncomfortable "These Guys Look Good In A Uniform" list. The problem is that Trannon's hulking monstrosity does not come attached to a pair of hands that can catch or a pair of feet that can elude. A perpetual disappointment for Spartan fans who see a 6'6" Spartan wideout and think Plaxico Burress, Trannon has one more chance to make good on his promise. Will he? Survey says no. He'll be all right, again, and leave the Spartans wondering what could have been.
Trannon is joined by a cast of fairly average thousands: sophomores Terry "Annoying Chris Berman Nickname Waiting To Happen" Love and Devin Thomas, seniors Jerramy Scott, Kyle Brown and Kerry Reed. All sav
e Thomas had 28 or more catches a year ago. Scott led the way with 49. Add in redshirt sophomore Kellen Davis, a rangy pass catcher of the sort all the rage in the NFL at the moment, and you have a wide receiver corps with unmatched depth.
The catch is there's no guy at the top of the pyramid. Everyone is good but not great. As one RCMB message-boarder put it, State has "a bunch of .300 hitters with no homerun threat." Thomas is getting plugged by Smith as that threat, but has a lot of experience to make up on those in front of him. Keep an eye on him if he sees the field, as JLS will be banking on his ability making up for his inexperience.
Rating: 2. Three consistently excellent performers from one of the nation's most underrated offensive lines depart, leaving this unit the only one that could prevent the Spartan offense from replicating their explosive performances over the past two years. One VHT recruit, Roland Martin, steps in at guard, but center and left tackle don't even have that small luxury. Every starter from the '04 line is gone and only the meh -- guard Kyle Cook and RT-turned-LT Mike Gyetvai -- return from '05.
Attempting to project the performance of players one's never seen at a postion that the layman can hardly comprehend anyway is a futile task, but, hell, let's guess. One of the brilliant bits about the JLS offense is that it doesn't demand stone-cold NFL killers to be effective. The passing game relies on rollouts and copious play action to keep the quarterback clean and quite frequently works from a two-back shotgun set, giving MSU a wide array of options in blitz pickups. The running game concentrates on hittin' em where they ain't. You don't have to drive your man off the ball, just engage him long enough for Ringer to dash past on whichever side looks more appealing.
So even a bad line won't kill the Spartan offense, but if I was a State fan I would no doubt go around telling people that I got into Michigan. I would also regard this article from the News ominously:
Michigan State might finally have a defense worthy of confidence.
The Spartans ended spring football practice Friday with a scrimmage at Spartan Stadium, and though no winner was declared, the defense could have claimed victory.
The defense created five turnovers and stifled the offense early.
As is discussed a few inches down, there is no hope for the Spartan defense. Any sign of a pulse from it against a Michigan State offense that should be excellent bodes ill for those Motor City Bowl dreams. Also foreboding: the line's performance against Ohio State once a couple starters were lost to injury. Stanton went from fairly comfortable to running for his life in no time flat; OSU collected around a half-dozen sacks.
The offensive line is the potential achilles' heel of the 2006 Spartans and its performance is the greatest variable in their upcoming season. Unfortunately for MSU, the early returns are not encouraging.
Last Year: Wretched; only saved from Illinois-level numbers by the offense. Yielded 5.0 yards per carry. Only Wisconsin and Illinois were worse. Allowed opponents to complete 63 percent of their passes. Only Illinois was worse. Finished above only -- you guessed it -- Illinois in defensive passer efficiency. Even though the defense had the advantage of playing opposite their ravenous, time-killing offense they finished 87th nationally in total yardage. This was good for fourth(!!!) in the conference.
The good news? Wristbands for everyone!
The defense swears it's better. They say the secondary is improved and that the new wristbands will cure all of the missed signals and coverage breakdowns.
Uh, yeah... about that.
Rating: 1. Whether or not losing a bunch of starters on a crappy unit is a good thing or not is largely a philosophical question. Michigan State must get philosophical this year after losing Michael Bazemore, Brandon McKinney, and infamous-non-fumble-returner Domata Peko. In their place steps... well, someone. Probably.
Senior defensive end Clifton Ryan moves inside to tackle. He was listed at 302 a year ago and only gathered three sacks a year ago, so chances are he's moving to a more natural position. Except Ryan led the team with those three sacks... so maybe they need his mildly explosive (or at least extant) pass rush on the outside.
Redshirt junior Bobby Jones and JUCO transfer Ogemdi Nwagbuo will fill out the tackle rotation; both had some rough times during the spring and project to be crappy. The RCMB's scouting report on Nwagbuo is "huge but clueless."
Projected defensive end starters Brandon Long and Justin Kershaw are meaningless names to me. What we know: Long was a middling recruit out of Ohio a couple years ago and redshirted last year. He's a bit undersized -- or was when the weights on the MSU site were last updated -- at 230 pounds and plays at the "rush" position. He'll probably be mediocre at best and vulnerable to the run. Kershaw is a redshirt sophomore. Last year he had four tackles, one each against Kent State, Hawaii, Illinois, and Purdue. When Kershaw chose MSU, his other offers were from Kentucky, Indiana, Minnesota, and Cincinatti -- a fairly good list of the worst defenses in D-I. He'll probably be bad.
In sum: one experienced, decent player in Ryan, and then a vast wasteland of guys who haven't ever seen a meaningful snap and were panned by recruiting gurus. Sure, they could be better.
Rating: 3. What hope there is for the defense lies in this unit. All three starters return, and though they weren't great shakes a year ago there is a good bit of athleticism in the unit. "Bandit" linebacker SirDarean Adams and senior David Herron are both potential breakout stars if Ryan and whoever starts next to him can occupy blockers. Josh Thornhill is more pedestrian but is at least okay. One thing to watch for is the relative frequency of tackles from this unit. It is usually bad news when a safety is your leading tackler; it's worse when he has nearly 40 more than any linebacker. If Nehemiah Warrick ends up with a lot of tackles eight yards downfield like Eric Smith did a year ago, something has gone wrong with this unit. It must improve for the defense to go anywhere positive.
Q: How do you know when your defensive backfield is in bad shape?
A: When a guy with a name "Cole Corey" is kicked off the team and this causes concern.
A familiar sight.
This projects as another disaster zone. JUCO transfer Nehemiah Warrick, Peter's cousin, is getting a lot of buzz at safety, but is unlikely to improve upon the performance of the departed Eric Smith, a third-round NFL draft pick. Even if he pans out he'll be taking a lot of angles on players the rest of the secondary has let free. I have yet to discover who the starter opposite Warrick will be. Cole Corey is gone for shenanigans. Greg Cooper, who started every game at safety a year ago, has been moved to corner. Could it be improbably named Otis Wiley? Sure. The bet here is they'll be bad.
Starting cornerbacks Cooper and Demond Williams were not impressive a year ago -- though Cooper was playing
free safety, as mentioned -- but will probably improve some with age and experience. The Cooper move bespeaks a lot of insecurity in the secondary, though, as there is no obvious replacement for him at free safety. Either he was so bad at FS that he could not plausibly return or the alternatives at corner are so distasteful that a move was necessary. Neither alternative inspires confidence. Add in a pass rush that is not likely to be fierce and viola: a recipe for Spartan toast.
Kickers & Coverage
I don't think English has words to properly express precisely what happened when kicker Tom Goss stumbled onto the field last year. Let's try broken Spanish:
DISASTRO EXTRAORDINARIO!!!! AY AY AY SOY MUERTE! LOS SPARTANOS SON MUERTES! MUERTE MUERTE MUERTE! DISASTRO! DISASTRO! TRAGEDIA! DISASTRO!
Michigan State made five of sixteen field goals a year ago; the team long was 32 yards. A point of reference for Michigan fans: this was Brabbs/Neinberg/Finley but worse.
So, yeah, if either kicker from last year wanders on the field to do anything other than fetch the tee the Spartans are in bad shape. There are two candidates to replace the incompetents. 6'6" Todd Boleski is getting hype from the newspapers but has not impressed message-board partisans, who hold out hope for incoming freshman Brett Swenson. If a suitable replacement can't be found, JLS is crazy enough to go for it constantly -- which might be a net benefit if you listen to game-theory nerds.
Punting appears to be a different matter if you accept the surface-level statistics -- senior Brandon Fields and his career average of 45.6 yards per kick, a Spartan and Big Ten record, return -- but not so fast, my friend. Hurray and break out the Ray Guy, right? No. Fields has a giant leg, but his tendency to bomb it deep often comes at the cost of a line-drive and an excellent opportunity for some tiny bastard to pad his return average. Prone to shanked or mishit punts, Fields' leg was good for a measly 75th nationwide in net punting.
One thing to watch for this season when the Spartans face dangerous returners like Ginn or Breaston: strange line-drive bounce punts. Fields employed them to middling effect two years ago against Michigan; the punts were indeed unreturnable but they were often extremely short. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
Non-Conference: Decent. Two tomato cans in Idaho and Eastern Michigan, one respectable opponent in Pitt, and the annual megaphone game against Notre Dame.
Conference: Fortunate. MSU misses Iowa and Wisconsin and gets two big swing games against Purdue and Minnesota at home. Trips to Ann Arbor and Happy Valley are the only intimidating road games.
We're Sure About
Stanton and Ringer. They're both great players in an offense that is perfectly suited to their talents.
We Have An Idea About
Defensive Line and Secondary. Sure, they could get better. Maybe. More likely they're going to be berry, berry bad.
We Have No Clue About
The Offensive Line. Three new starters. One returning starter, Kyle Cook, out with an injury during the spring. Possibly manhandled by the Spartan defensive line, which projects as awful. Critical for those Motor City dreams.
An Embarassing Prediction, No Doubt
The offensive line holds together after an initial shaky getting-to-know-you period and the offense hums along just like it did this year. The defense is not wretched, but it ain't good, either. Swenson is the kicking savior. That adds up to 9-3.
The spring practice was more indicative of the offensive line's ability than the defensive line's. Stanton scrambles for his life, Ringer's production drops, and the offense is average. The defense is just as brutal as expected, and a further series of hilarious Spartan mistakes loses a game or two. JLS goes 4-8 and gets some lovely parting gifts.
Without a miracle from several players on the defensive side of the ball they're just going to suck. Where does the pass rush come from? You can excuse Long for not showing up a year ago as a 230 pound true freshman, but Kershaw is much bigger, had a year of experience, and got four garbage-time tackles despite the complete lack of production from the starters. MGoBlog has a cardinal rule of player projection: if you're not a true freshman and you're stuck behind a terrible player on a terrible defense, there is a 90% chance you are a terrible player. The coaches have nothing to lose by trying a kid out in that situation -- is the defense really going to get worse? -- so if you find yourself watching the carnage, you are in no position to correct it. There will be no pass rush; the secondary is going to remain impotent.
Offensively, the line is likely to take a major step back with only two returning starters and that half-disaster in the spring game. That should dampen Stanton and Ringer's production somewhat, but JLS has produced on offense everywhere he's ever been no matter the situation. He'll have to gameplan around it but the offense should still be very good, but not doors-blown-off.
Wins: Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Illinois, Indiana
Probable Wins: Minnesota, Northwestern
Tossups: Pitt, Penn State, Purdue
Probable Losses: Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame
No Chance: None
Round down a bit for inevitable Spartan collapse in one game, and you have 7-5.