Your Tuesday Bubble Watch Rooting Guide
In the same spirit as yesterday's post. Check out jamiemac's Diary on the Bracket Matrix for more breakdowns as they specifically relate to Michigan.
Tales from Last Night
All the games in which Michigan had a semi-serious rooting interest last night went the wrong way (though most of those results were expected):
- Notre Dame beat Villanova 93-72.
- Florida Gulf Coast beat USC Upstate 81-65.
- Bethune-Cookman beat NC Central 73-60.
- Kansas State beat Texas 75-70. The Longhorns have singlehandedly choked their way into getting Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas State onto the bubble.
- Gonzaga beat Cal State-Bakersfield 96-49.
None of these were killers, to say the least, but Kansas State is solidly in the tournament at this point.
The Bubble
The Matrix hasn't been updated since last night's results, so consider it a day-ish behind. The information isn't changing quickly enough for that to be a huge hindrance to our purposes.
Per the Bracket Matrix:
| Bids | Bubble In | Bubble Out | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big East | 11 | Marq (10) | None. | |
| SEC | 6 | Tenn (9), UGa (10), Bama (12) | None. | |
| Big Ten | 6 | Ill (10), MSU (11), Mich (12) | Minn, PSU | MSU down from 10, Mich in, Minn out. |
| ACC | 5 | BC (12), VT (10), FSU (9) | Clem, Mary | Seeds reshuffled. |
| Big 12 | 5 | KSU (8) | Neb, Bay, Colo, OkSt | KSU up from 9. |
| Pac-10 | 3 | Wash (9), UCLA (8) | USC, Washington St. | Washington down from 8. |
| Atlantic 10 | 3 | Richmond (11) | Dayton | Duquesne gone. |
| Mountain West | 3 | UNLV (8) | Colo St | None. |
| West Coast | 2 | Zaga (12), St Mary's (11) | None. | |
| Colonial | 2 | Old Domin (8) | VCU | None. |
| CUSA | 2 | Memphis (11), UAB (12) | USM, UTEP, Marsh, UCF | None. |
| WAC | 1 | Utah State (9) | ||
| Horizon | 1 | Butler (12) | Cleve St, UW-Mil | |
| Summit | 1 | 1-bid Oakland (13) | ||
| Ivy | 1 | 1-bid Princeton (13) | Harvard | Princeton in, Harvard out. |
I've excised all of the conferences that are going to have 1 bid no matter what, because they won't affect our bubble watch (unless a past Michigan opponent goes on a crazy run and wins the conference tourney, of course).
Today's Games
As always, your general principle is to root against all teams on the bubble, whether they're in the tournament for now, or just barely on the outside. Things get a little more complicated when Michigan's past opponents are involved.
- Illinois @ Purdue (7:00 ESPN). Since Michigan played each of these teams only once, I think you want Purdue to win. The Wolverines are fighting with Illinois for a bubble spot.
- Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7:00 ESPN2). Both of these teams are on the outside of the Big 12 bubble. I think you want Baylor to win, since they're more likely to lose their final game to Texas (well, with the way Texas is playing, who knows?) than Oklahoma state is to lose to Oklahoma.
- Alabama @ Florida (7:00 ESPNU). You want Florida to win. They are solidly in the tournament, whereas Alabama is a hardly-deserving bubble team. This could knock them out.
- Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina (7:00 Gametracker). Gardner-Webb is a past Michigan opponent. They're facing Big South 1-seed Coastal Carolina in the first round of the conference tournament. An upset here would be nice, since this is a 1-bid conference either way.
- Kent State @ Bowling Green (7:30 ESPN3). Bowling Green is a past opponent. Kent State currently leads the MAC, but it is a 1-bid league either way.
- Missouri @ Nebraska (8:00 ESPN3). Missouri is solidly in the tournament, whereas Nebraska is barely on the bubble. This would definitely knock the Huskers out for good.
- Ohio State @ Penn State (9:00 BTN). I'm torn on this game. With a sweep of the Nittany Lions under our belt, you want them to be a top-50 RPI team. On the other hand, that means they strengthen their bubble position, harming Michigan. I still think a tiebreaker of 2-0 head-to-head between UM and PSU would swing things in Michigan's way. I'll say watch this game closely, but no clear rooting interest.
- Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9:00 ESPNU). This is another game that you could go either way on. One team will knock the other onto the wrong side of the bubble for the time being. I'll say you want BC to lose, since they have a near-automatic win (against Wake Forest at home) up next. You'll be rooting HARD for Clemson to beat Virginia Tech on Saturday.
Get your rootin' shoes on. Hopefully, it'll go better than last night. It should, as you want Kenpom's favored team to win 4 of the 7 games in which there's a clear rooting interest - he also favors Ohio State to knock Penn State down the pecking order, for what it's worth. Last night, we were pulling almost exclusively for underdogs (and a crappy Texas team).
I think you want Oklahoma State to beat Baylor. Baylor is closer to the bubble, and the road win means more to them. The loss would knock them down, but not bring Ok. St. up enough to really worry about.
I also think you definitely want OSU to beat Penn State. As much as you would think it would help to have a team we swept on the bubble with us, that has never stopped the committee from putting in the team with the stronger resume that lost head-to-head against a particular bubble team. Penn State has quietly built a solid resume, and you can make the argument that they are just about even with Michigan right now (I disagree with that argument, but still). Keep in mind that they only played both Indiana and Iowa twice, so they had by far the hardest B1G conference schedule. If they get to 10-8 and win their first BTT game, they may be in, possibly at our expense. I want to keep Michigan in that 4-5 game against an Illinois team that has a high RPI but is stumbling right now.
Agreed on Okie State. They're a bit like Minnesota is in the Big Ten. They need to win out just to get to 2 games below .500. Barring a major run in the Big XII tournament they shouldn't be getting in. Baylor on the other hand is right on the bubble line.
I think Baylor and Oklahoma State are both out with a 1-1 record in their final two games, as long as they don't make a run in the Big 12 tournament. Thus, I went with the rooting interest that is most likely to achieve that result.
There's definitely an argument either way.
I just think that they have a decent chance to beat Texas on Saturday at home, and I'd rather have that not quite be enough to get them in. Ok. State has a decent RPI but their only road win all year was at Tulsa, so they're not getting in without a huge run in the Big XII tournament. Baylor has more bad losses, but has a sweep against Texas A&M already on their resume. A win over Ok.St. plus Gameday at the Baylor-Texas game could do for them what the Duke game did for Virginia Tech.
I'm not sure you want to rely on Texas to finish off Baylor since they've been boosting Big 12 bubble teams for two weeks now. Especially playing on the road at Baylor.
Right now, Oklahoma State is barely even a bubble team. Wins over Baylor and Oklahoma shouldn't change that too much. To even have a chance they probably need a run to the Big 12 finals.
I think Michigan and Penn State are close enough in resume right now that if both were to finish in the RPI top 50, it would actually swing the comparison in Michigan's favor. It would make a huge dent in PSU's RPI top-50 record, while boosting Michigan's.
is a good thing, no?
No. Neither of those teams is anywhere near the bubble, but Marquette (the only current bubble team in the Big East) has a 2-game split with Notre Dame but a loss to Villanova. The Irish winning slightly improves MU's RPI and strength of schedule.
Since the rooting interest as between OSU and PSU is a toss up, I plan to root against OSU. That is my default mode - root against OSU. (Even when an OSU win would help Michigan, I have a hard time rooting for them).
PSU has a higher RPI than ours (barely, but still) and wins over Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Add OSU to the list, and I think there's a very good chance they get in over us, even though we beat them twice.
But if both Michigan and Penn State end up in the RPI top 50 (as they would if PSU wins tonight and any bubble discussion for Michigan becomes relevant), that adds 0-2 to PSU's record against those teams, and 2-0 to Michigan's - which the Wolverines could REALLY use on Selection Sunday. When you add those factors together, along with 2-0 head-to-head and no loss to Maine, I still think Michigan would get the nod.
I just think (perhaps too much) that the Committee strongly emphasizes big wins. We're 0-7 against the RPI top 25. If Penn State beats OSU they'll be 2-4. I could see that trumping head-to-head, and I'm not sure it would be wrong if that happened.
PSU only has 15 wins. Assuming a loss tonight, there is no guarantee they will beat Minnesota and have more than one win in the B1G tournament. Even if they beat Minnesota, they will have 17 wins...we should have a minimum of 19.
despite going 16-14. That was an extreme example, because they played the toughest schedule in the country and had an absurdly high RPI, but the Committee cares about other things besides total number of wins.
The Michigan and Penn State schedule strengths should be comparable (with PSU's slightly higher). If Michigan finishes with 3-4 more wins, well...
I remember a similar situation with Arizona and Arizona State a few years ago. One swept the other, but the team that got swept got in by virtue of a better resume. Also, sure, they lost to Maine, but we lost to Indiana. That's not much better. They'd also have a top-10 win, and our best win (MSU) would be a bubble team.
Uh, losing to Maine at home is MUCH MUCH worse than losing to Indiana on the road. Maine is outside the RPI top-200, whereas Indiana is not.
It shouldn't make that big of a difference, but 200+ losses are a Big Deal in the eyes of the committee, fair or not, and losing to one on your home court is a huge hit.
Maine is currently #206, and has a good chance to get a couple wins in their conference tournament. Indiana is #176 and has to play Wisconsin, at Illinois, and then whoever the 6th seed is (hopefully Michigan State or Penn State). Yes, there is a home/road difference, but I think both are just classified as "bad loss". After all, Illinois has its loss to #288 UIC, and that's not keeping them out of the tournament.
PSU beating OSU means they'll have a good chance at going 10-8 in the Big Ten and getting the 4 seed, most likely knocking us to 6 regardless of beating MSU. It basically makes our sweep of them null.
I think the Kansas State win was a net positive for Michigan. The perception that Texas is plummeting serves to negate the huge boost that Colorado got from beating them. If it turns out that Texas was a bit of a paper tiger and starts dropping to a 4 or 5 seed, Colorado's win over them won't be near enough to make up for their bad RPI and bad losses. Also, I think Kansas State was fairly safe even before that game.
Until the end of the season, we won't know whether it was a net positive or negative, but I definitely agree that it wasn't a horrible thing for the Wolverines.
Colorado swept Kansas St this year. No matter which team won it probably was going to help CU some. I guess maybe UM would have wanted Texas to try and knock KState down a few notches.
In the hockey rankings, a win over a top opponent is only that, one win. Thus, when looking at the PSU-UM comparison, UM looks better. But when you get in to basketball, it's not that simple. The selection committee looks at "signature wins" which Michigan lacks (death to backboards) and beating OSU - currently ranked #1 - would be just that for PSU. Signature wins aren't all that matter, but when you're comparing teams, a squad with a signature win - especially this late in the season - looks better than a team with two additional wins over RPI Top 50 teams.
Good points.
At the end of the day, I think it's fair to say that if we're scraping and clawing against Penn State for the final NCAA Tournament bid, we haven't done our work over the final few games of the season.
If everything else goes chalk, we'd be playing the #4-seed Illini and they'd likely be a top 50 RPI win if they win out. Then if we can get the Bucks, lock the bid down.
MSU puts us firmly inside the bubble. I think beating Illinois would lock us in and every win after that decreases our seed.
Wouldn't make a difference seed-wise for the BTT but Illinois is not a tournament lock yet. If Purdue winning hurts them then yes please. They won't fall from top 50 in RPI with a loss anyway.
Besides, if we're in a situation where we're playing OSU in the BTT, then we've already locked up a spot in the tournament.
I disagree - unless Illinois loses to Indiana at home, they're in the tournament, at least over us. They'd have the same conference record, better (any?) OOC wins, and a better SOS and RPI. The only way we can hope Illinois falls off the bubble is if they lose to Indiana like I said, but I severly doubt that happens.
So, I think we root for Illinois to win. That way, after we beat MSU, we'll play Illinois in the BTT, and we'll either lose to a higher RPI team or beat a higher RPI team, and when all is said and done, we will have played Illinois twice and Purdue once.
However, if Illinois loses to Purdue, root like hell that they lose to Indiana too - that would open up a spot for us.
If PSU wins both games, they pass us, no matter what. If PSU loses both games, they are for sure out of the top 50. If they beat Minn and lose to OSU, their RPI goes up, and they don't have the resume builder in OSU. If they beat OSU and lose to Minn, their RPI goes up (but not as much as if they split the other way because of the 1.4/0.6 thing) and they get the win over OSU.
So doesn't it seem that OSU beating PSU and PSU beating Minn is the best way to go? At this point, I don't think they can make it into the top 50 (although the jump from OWP after OSU could help them), but if they have a chance, this is the only way they are going to do it without winning out. I think you have to root for OSU in this one.
From UM's standpoint, you need PSU to split their last 2 games, and losing to OSU also denies them a big signature win. UM needs to be rooting for a 4 way tie for 4th place in the Big Ten - Ill, PSU, MSU and UM all at 9-9. UM wins the tie breaker and is #4 seed in BTT. Also, this would mean no additional signature wins for Illinois (vs. Purdue tonight) and PSU (vs. OSU tonight). It also assumes State beats Iowa (though I want Iowa to win), and of course UM beating State on Saturday. If this occurs, I think it would be hard for the selection committee to keep the #4 team out of the Dance, regardless of BTT results. Though, if UM gets to the Semis of the BTT (as the #4 seed or worse) then I do believe they are in.
Also - if UM makes it as a 12 seed, or one of the play-in games. I like our change in a neutral court in Dayton, OH. That's what, 3 to 4 hour drive?? I am sure there would be a good sized UM crowd for that game so I like our chances there too...
In all - like Tom VH said in Sept in regard to recruiting - just win.
Go Blue!
If Michigan makes it into a first-4 game, they had damn well better win, even if it's in Timbuktu.
Good stuff, Tim. I did a Bubble Breakdown on tonight's games over at the JCB.
I think it's pretty clear that all Michigan fans shouls cheer against BC, Alabama and Baylor tonight. They are 3 teams that most folks feel are equal footing with Michigan, so losses by those three are big wins for the Wolverines. It strengthens their spot at the top of the bubble pecking order.
BC and Bammer are probably a loss away from being ditched out of most of the mock brackets that currently have them in. Both are on the road, against teams that are locks. Well, maybe not the Hokies, but they are pretty darn close. A BC loss tonight, and I think they need to at least make the ACC semi's, if not finals to get an at large, so there is a lot more upside to them losing.
If Baylor goes 2-0 this week, I think they are in great position. 1-1 and I dont think so.
And, here's hoping Missou figures out their road woes and puts the final stake through Nebraska's heart.
Jamie, my good man, you need to update your signature!
All from the RPI:
| Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|
| Wins RPI Top 25 | |
| 13 Wisconsin | |
| Wins RPI 25-50 | |
| 38 Illinois | @ 40 Michigan State |
| 40 Michigan St. | 44 Harvard |
| Wins RPI 50-100 | |
| 61 Minnesota | @ 56 Penn State |
| 88 Fairfield | 56 Penn State |
| @ 95 Northwestern | 60 Oakland |
| 95 Northwestern | @ 61 Minnesota |
| 99 Duquesne | 69 Clemson |
| 95 Northwestern | |
| Wins RPI 100-200 | |
| 120 Furman | 110 Utah |
| 150 Central Connecticut St. | 178 Indiana |
| @ 178 Indiana | @ 183 Iowa |
| 183 Iowa | 183 Iowa |
| 187 St. Joseph's | |
| Wins RPI 200+ | |
| 219 Lehigh | 250 Bowling Green |
| 227 Mount St. Mary's | 254 Bryant |
| 262 NC Central | |
| 267 Gardner-Webb | |
| 305 USC-Upstate | |
| Losses RPI Top 25 | |
| @ 3 Ohio State | 2 Kansas |
| @ 6 Purdue | @ 3 Ohio State |
| 6 Purdue | 3 Ohio State |
| @ 13 Wisconsin | 6 Purdue |
| @ 13 Wisconsin | |
| 13 Wisconsin | |
| N 16 Syracuse | |
| Losses RPI 25-50 | |
| @ 38 Illinois | @ 38 Illinois |
| @ 40 Michigan State | |
| Losses RPI 50-100 | |
| @ 53 Virginia Tech | 61 Minnesota |
| @ 57 Michigan | N 70 UTEP |
| 57 Michigan | @ 95 Northwestern |
| @ 73 Mississippi | |
| 83 Maryland | |
| Losses RPI 100-200 | |
| @ 178 Indiana | |
| Losses RPI 200+ | |
| 205 Maine | |
So what do we have? Breakin' it down again:
| Penn State | Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| v. Top 25 | 1-4 | 0-7 |
| v. Top 50 | 3-6 | 2-8 |
| v. Top 100 | 8-11 | 8-11 |
| v. 100-200 | 5-0 | 5-1 |
| v. 200+ | 0-1 | 5-0 |
It's possible (maybe even likely) that Duquesne moves out of the top-100, and though Fairfield is the #1 seed in the MAAC tournament, if they're upset in the quarterfinals, they could move out too. Northwestern is also at risk of moving out, dropping 2 wins from the Penn State top-100.
On the other side, Northwestern is the only Michigan opponent at risk of moving out of the top-100, and it's probably more likely that Oakland moves into that category. Should Michigan and Penn State both move into the top 50, that adds two losses in the category for PSU, and 2 more wins for the Wolverines.
Penn State's current top RPI records are in danger of getting much, much worse, whereas Michigan's opponents defeated in the 50-100 range are more likely to move up than down.
Considering the Wolverines will have a better win percentage (in the event that this becomes relevant, of course), along with a comparable RPI and a 2-0 record head-to-head, Michigan gets in over Penn State with a Wolverine win and barring some craziness in the Big Ten Tourney.
At least, right now. If PSU beats OSU, that's two marquee wins. While they are going to be hurt by their terrible road record, a win over OSU would open a lot of eyes, like beating Texas did for Colorado, except Penn State's resume is already better than Colorado's. If PSU goes 2-0 this week, their resume will look better than ours. That said, if we win our next two we'll be in no matter what. The team that should really pull for Ohio State is MSU, because if Michigan wins on Saturday, MSU might be fighting with PSU for the last spot coming out of the Big Ten.
Do you mean that Oakland could move into top-50 RPI status with a successful run through the Summit League tournament? I think that's what you are saying. Currently they are at 60 according to the chart.
We want OSU over PSU (as much as it pains me to write that) because OSU is not a bubble team and PSU is.
Also Crisler is sold out for this Saturday's game...
Uh, it's much much more complicated than that.
After your very well-written post with charts and figures and arguments, I couldn't help but laugh out loud at this incredibly simplified post.
And only 12 minutes after yours!
Right now, I rather see PSU denied any type of status/charcter win for their resume. If they beat OSU, they almost could lose the Minny game, going 1-1 in the B10 tourney, and get in over UM just because people will remember their "big" wins against Wiscy and OSU over the lack of any marquee ones by UM.
We really need Florida to pick their shit up in the second half. Alabama winning this game would put them ahead of us and we need them behind us.
I feel like we need a Bubble Watch Open Thread. But I don't actually want to make one, because that would require effort on my part.
Alabama is not a tournament team. They shouldn't even host an NIT game.
Well Florida took care of business in the second half and ending up blowing out Bama, and it looks like Purdue is going to take care of Illinois up 6 with 3 seconds left. So far so good for us.
Purdue took care of Illinois - yay
OK-State took care of Baylor - yay
Florida gave 'Bama a 2nd-half beating - yay
Coastal Carolina beat G-W - bad I guess, but I don't think it matters much either way
Kent St. beat BGSU - again, sort of meh
Mizzou got pounded by Nebraska - drrrr
OSU is slaughtering PSU - yay (sort of)
VT is getting worked by BC (at home no less) - come on, man
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