Your Tuesday Bubble Watch Rooting Guide

I think you want Oklahoma State to beat Baylor.  Baylor is closer to the bubble, and the road win means more to them.  The loss would knock them down, but not bring Ok. St. up enough to really worry about. 

I also think you definitely want OSU to beat Penn State.  As much as you would  think it would  help to have a team we swept on the bubble with us, that has never stopped the committee from putting in the team with the stronger resume that lost head-to-head against a particular bubble team.  Penn State has quietly built a solid resume, and you can make the argument that they are just about even with Michigan right now (I disagree with that argument, but still).  Keep in mind that they only played both Indiana and Iowa twice, so they had by far the hardest B1G conference schedule. If they get to 10-8 and win their first BTT game, they may be in, possibly at our expense.  I want to keep Michigan in that 4-5 game against an Illinois team that has a high RPI but is stumbling right now.

is a good thing, no?

Since the rooting interest as between OSU and PSU is a toss up, I plan to root against OSU.  That is my default mode - root against OSU.  (Even when an OSU win would help Michigan, I have a hard time rooting for them).

PSU beating OSU means they'll have a good chance at going 10-8 in the Big Ten and getting the 4 seed, most likely knocking us to 6 regardless of beating MSU.  It basically makes our sweep of them null.

I think the Kansas State win was a net positive for Michigan.  The perception that Texas is plummeting serves to negate the huge boost that Colorado got from beating them.  If it turns out that Texas was a bit of a paper tiger and starts dropping to a 4 or 5 seed, Colorado's win over them won't be near enough to make up for their bad RPI and bad losses.  Also, I think Kansas State was fairly safe even before that game.

In the hockey rankings, a win over a top opponent is only that, one win. Thus, when looking at the PSU-UM comparison, UM looks better. But when you get in to basketball, it's not that simple. The selection committee looks at "signature wins" which Michigan lacks (death to backboards) and beating OSU - currently ranked #1 - would be just that for PSU. Signature wins aren't all that matter, but when you're comparing teams, a squad with a signature win - especially this late in the season - looks better than a team with two additional wins over RPI Top 50 teams.

If everything else goes chalk, we'd be playing the #4-seed Illini and they'd likely be a top 50 RPI win if they win out.  Then if we can get the Bucks, lock the bid down.

If PSU wins both games, they pass us, no matter what. If PSU loses both games, they are for sure out of the top 50. If they beat Minn and lose to OSU, their RPI goes up, and they don't have the resume builder in OSU. If they beat OSU and lose to Minn, their RPI goes up (but not as much as if they split the other way because of the 1.4/0.6 thing) and they get the win over OSU.

So doesn't it seem that OSU beating PSU and PSU beating Minn is the best way to go? At this point, I don't think they can make it into the top 50 (although the jump from OWP after OSU could help them), but if they have a chance, this is the only way they are going to do it without winning out. I think you have to root for OSU in this one.

From UM's standpoint, you need PSU to split their last 2 games, and losing to OSU also denies them a big signature win. UM needs to be rooting for a 4 way tie for 4th place in the Big Ten - Ill, PSU, MSU and UM all at 9-9. UM wins the tie breaker and is #4 seed in BTT. Also, this would mean no additional signature wins for Illinois (vs. Purdue tonight) and PSU (vs. OSU tonight). It also assumes State beats Iowa (though I want Iowa to win), and of course UM beating State on Saturday. If this occurs, I think it would be hard for the selection committee to keep the #4 team out of the Dance, regardless of BTT results. Though, if UM gets to the Semis of the BTT (as the #4 seed or worse) then I do believe they are in. 

Also - if UM makes it as a 12 seed, or one of the play-in games. I like our change in a neutral court in Dayton, OH. That's what, 3 to 4 hour drive?? I am sure there would be a good sized UM crowd for that game so I like our chances there too...

In all - like Tom VH said in Sept in regard to recruiting - just win.

Go Blue!

Good stuff, Tim. I did a Bubble Breakdown on tonight's games over at the JCB.

I think it's pretty clear that all Michigan fans shouls cheer against BC, Alabama and Baylor tonight. They are 3 teams that most folks feel are equal footing with Michigan, so losses by those three are big wins for the Wolverines. It strengthens their spot at the top of the bubble pecking order.

BC and Bammer are probably a loss away from being ditched out of most of the mock brackets that currently have them in. Both are on the road, against teams that are locks. Well, maybe not the Hokies, but they are pretty darn close. A BC loss tonight, and I think they need to at least make the ACC semi's, if not finals to get an at large, so there is a lot more upside to them losing.

If Baylor goes 2-0 this week, I think they are in great position. 1-1 and I dont think so.

And, here's hoping Missou figures out their road woes and puts the final stake through Nebraska's heart.

All from the RPI:

So what do we have? Breakin' it down again:

It's possible (maybe even likely) that Duquesne moves out of the top-100, and though Fairfield is the #1 seed in the MAAC tournament, if they're upset in the quarterfinals, they could move out too. Northwestern is also at risk of moving out, dropping 2 wins from the Penn State top-100.

On the other side, Northwestern is the only Michigan opponent at risk of moving out of the top-100, and it's probably more likely that Oakland moves into that category. Should Michigan and Penn State both move into the top 50, that adds two losses in the category for PSU, and 2 more wins for the Wolverines.

Penn State's current top RPI records are in danger of getting much, much worse, whereas Michigan's opponents defeated in the 50-100 range are more likely to move up than down.

Considering the Wolverines will have a better win percentage (in the event that this becomes relevant, of course), along with a comparable RPI and a 2-0 record head-to-head, Michigan gets in over Penn State with a Wolverine win and barring some craziness in the Big Ten Tourney.

We want OSU over PSU (as much as it pains me to write that) because OSU is not a bubble team and PSU is.

Also Crisler is sold out for this Saturday's game...

Right now, I rather see PSU denied any type of status/charcter win for their resume.  If they beat OSU, they almost could lose the Minny game, going 1-1 in the B10 tourney, and get in over UM just because people will remember their "big" wins against Wiscy and OSU over the lack of any marquee ones by UM.  

We really need Florida to pick their shit up in the second half.  Alabama winning this game would put them ahead of us and we need them behind us.

Alabama is not a tournament team.  They shouldn't even host an NIT game.

Well Florida took care of business in the second half and ending up blowing out Bama, and it  looks like Purdue is going to take care of Illinois up 6 with 3 seconds left. So far so good for us.

Purdue took care of Illinois - yay

OK-State took care of Baylor - yay

Florida gave 'Bama a 2nd-half beating - yay

Coastal Carolina beat G-W - bad I guess, but I don't think it matters much either way

Kent St. beat BGSU - again, sort of meh

Mizzou got pounded by Nebraska - drrrr

OSU is slaughtering PSU - yay (sort of)

VT is getting worked by BC (at home no less) - come on, man

Of course, I'm expecting us to beat MSU.

The backup plan is for Illinois to lose expectedly to Purdue ( ✓ ) and in a stinker at home to Indiana. (unlikely)

Plan A is for PSU to lose as expected tonight (lookin' good, 55-33 tOSU w/ 12min to play), or to make me nervous Sunday as they play @ a hopefully-still-motivated Minnesota.

I don't think beating MSU is enough to lock up a spot. While Lunardi has us in his last four in, his snapshot bracket doesn't attempt to account for the non-at-large-projected surprise-league-champions that knock a projected auto-bid onto the at-large list in front of us.

Thus I think anything that helps us go deeper in the B1GT is something to root for. And playing on Thursday not only would expose us to a possible non-gimme upset at the hands of a near-home Indiana, it would also expend 40 minutes of leg energy.

And so I say, let's just beat MSU, Illinois?, and then take it to the Bucks and the Boilers.