Your Saturday Bubble Watch Rooting Guide and Open Thread
Now part of a recurring series. Check out jamiemac's Diary on the Bracket Matrix for more breakdowns as they specifically relate to Michigan.
Tales from Last Night
Last night went much better for Michigan than did Monday. The relevant results for the Wolverines:
- Harvard beat Penn 79-64. The Crimson are a past opponent, so we want them to do very well.
- Princeton beat Dartmouth 77-55. We wanted Princeton to lose because they're Harvard's competition for the Ivy League title and NCAA Tournament bid.
It was a small schedule last night, and everything went as expected.
The Bubble
Looks like The Matrix isn't going to update before tonight's relevant games start, so the table below comes from yesterday's update.
Per the Bracket Matrix:
| Bids | Bubble In | Bubble Out | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big East | 11 | Marq (10) | ||
| SEC | 5 | Tenn (9), UGa (10), | Bama | Bama out. |
| Big Ten | 6 | Mich (12), MSU (10), Ill (9) | Minn, PSU | |
| ACC | 5 | Clemson (12), BC (12), VT (11), FSU (9) | Mary | |
| Big 12 | 5 | Neb, Bay, Colo, OkSt | ||
| Pac-10 | 3 | Wash (9), UCLA (8) | USC, Washington St. | |
| Atlantic 10 | 3 | Richmond (11) | ||
| Mountain West | 3 | UNLV (8) | Colo St | |
| West Coast | 2 | Zaga (12), St Mary's (11) | ||
| Colonial | 2 | George Mason (8), Old Domin (8) | VCU | |
| CUSA | 2 | Memphis (12), UAB (11) | USM, UTEP, Marsh, UCF | |
| WAC | 1 | Utah State (9) | ||
| Horizon | 1 | Butler (12) | Cleve St, UW-Mil | |
| Summit | 1 | 1-bid Oakland (13) | ||
| Ivy | 1 | 1-bid Princeton (13) | Harvard |
Chart doesn't include last night's results.
Today's Games
Big day. General rule: cheer against bubble teams, and for past Michigan opponents.
- Kansas @ Missouri (Noon, CBS). The Jayhawks are a past Michigan opponent, so you want them to win.
- Virginia Tech @ Clemson (Noon, ESPN2). These are both bubble teams, but Virginia Tech has a stronger resume right now and Clemson is also a past Michigan opponent. Pull HARD for the Tigers.
- Indiana @ Illinois (Noon, BTN). You want Indiana to stay above the 200 RPI threshold, so Michigan's loss to them isn't as bad. Plus, the Wolverines own a win over Indiana but not Illinois. This game could also hurt the Illini's psyche before a possible first-round BTT matchup with Michigan. HOWEVA, Indiana ain't gon' win, so don't worry about it.
- Duquesne @ Richmond (Noon). The Spiders are a bubble team, and you want the Dukes to do everything in their power to change that.
- Georgia @ Alabama (1:30, ESPN3). Both are bubble teams, but the Bulldogs are slightly stronger right now, and you want Alabama to knock them down to their level - especially since the Tide probably lost their main at-large chance against Florida the other night.
- Iowa State @ Kansas State (1:30, ESPN3). Iowa State has no shot at an at-large bid, so you want them to do as much damage as possible to Kansas State.
- Oregon @ Arizona (2:00, CBS). Haha, most of you have to watch this instead of a game that more than 8 people care about. CBS hates you.
- Virginia @ Maryland (2:00, ESPN3). Root for the Hoos to end Maryland's chances to get an at-large.
- UTEP @ SMU (3:00). Though UTEP is a fellow bubble team, they're a past Michigan opponent so you want them to do well. If the MSU game isn't going so hot, switch allegiances to SMU, I guess.
- Purdue @ Iowa (4:00, ESPN). You want Iowa to spring the upset and stay in the RPI top 200 (not gonna happen).
- Tulane @ Memphis (4:00). The Green wave can end Memphis's hopes to pick up an at-large bid by saddling them with a bad loss.
- Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (4:00, ESPN3). Oklahoma State is on the bubble fringe, but the Sooners can end that on their senior day.
- UNLV @ Utah (4:00). The Runnin' Rebels are solidly in the tournament, but Utah is a past Michigan opponent.
- UCLA @ Washington State (5:30). The Bruins are solidly in the tournament, and can knock off Washington State's run.
- Marquette @ Seton Hall (6:00, ESPN3). Marquette is sliding after Wednesday's loss to Cincinnati, and this could finish them.
- Princeton @ Harvard (7:00, ESPN3). The Ivy League's website breaks down title scenarios. You are a HUGE Harvard fan in this one (see top section of this post).
- Southern Utah v. Oakland (7:00). Past Michigan opponent Grizzlies kick off their conference tournament.
- UCF @ Marshall (7:00). Both teams are on the bubble, so root for UCF because they're a little further behind.
- East Carolina @ UAB (8:00). UAB is on the bubble, and you want East Carolina to knock them off it.
- Southern Miss @ Tulsa (8:00). Same goes for this game.
- Texas @ Baylor (9:00, ESPN). You want Texas to permanently knock Baylor out of the running for a bubble spot.
- Nebraska @ Colorado (9:00). Both bubble teams, root for the weaker one.
- Colorado State @ San Diego State (10:00). The Aztecs can knock Colorado State off the bubble.
- Canisius v. Rider (10:00, ESPN3). Least important game on the docket, since both schools are highly unlikely to get anything other than an autobid. Get good karma by rooting on John Beilein's old team, though.
- USC @ Washington (10:30). Since USC lost Thursday night, they're going to miss the tournament. Root for them to weaken Washington on their way out.
- Buffalo @ Bowling Green. The Falcons are a past Michigan opponent, and you want them to end up as respectable as possible.
Tons of games today, but remember that most of them mean nothing unless the maize-and-blue can emerge victorious over MSU.
Go Blue Wear Maize Beat State.
Nice charts here
Lot of good games today and I look forward to watching them
I somewhat disagree with the "cheer for the weaker one" strategy for Bubble matchups. I certainly understand the logic but part of me thinks if the stronger team wins, then that completely kills the weaker one's chances.
Let's say that the stronger bubble team in those matchups is above us in the pecking order. We don't really need them to drop, we just need to handle our business.
On the other hand, the last thing we want is for a team who is currently below us to string a few good wins together and jump over us.
I'm rooting for Colorado over Nebraska, because a win for the Buffs isn't enough for them, but a good win on the road is the one thing Nebraska is missing. I'm also rooting for Va. Tech, because a win for Clemson gets them in, but a loss for Va. Tech is not enough to keep them out without further implosion in the ACC tournament. It takes a lot to erase that Duke win.
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Let's pop this guys bubble........
If the Indiana team that showed up for the Jordan Taylor Show on Thursday comes to play against Illinois, they will win. However, thats a big if. Disagree on Georgia-Alabama, Georgia is pretty well in right now from what I've seen, and Alabama is a bubble team in desperate need of a quality W. I'll be rooting for the Bulldogs.
Tim, I disagree with your bubble rooting philosophy, if you want to call it that. When you've got a game like Georgia vs. Alabama, and most people have Georgia in as a 10 seed and Alabama just out, then shouldn't you root for Georgia to be more safely in and Alabama more firmly out?
Same thing with Clemson and Virginia Tech. Despite Michigan's win over Clemson, I think you root against them because they are right on the bubble, whereas people think VT could still get in with a loss in this game and then 1 win in the ACC tourney.
As much as we'd like to think the committee would never take a team Michigan beat head to head like Clemson, unless it is coming to the final spot between those two teams, the committee will look at a number of factors other than head to head.
Both are bubble teams. I'd rather pull for the one Michigan played, and have them be in the tournament than Virginia Tech.
One of these teams is going to make it in. If Clemson wins, though, they might both make it. I'd rather pull for Virginia Tech and know that Clemson was out. If Clemson wins, it better be by 20 points, because the loss to BC wasn't enough to make the committee forget about Va. Tech beating Duke.
You end up rooting for teams like Indiana the same way you root for the Ravens because you've got their defense starting or for the Vikings because you picked up Adrian Peterson. And you feel dirty the whole time.
[Edit: cut and paste police comment deleted after cutting and pasting error fixed.]
lots of holdovers from earlier versions of the template (wednesday is a big night, etc.) that don't fit.
Clemson winning today would push them closer to the "magical" top 50 RPI. And everything I read says Mich is missing the top wins. So lets get as many teams in that top 50 as possible. That being said, we really do not want Alabama winning today. I get a sense that either a Big 10 team or an SEC team (Bama) will be getting one of the last bids to the dance. Lets eliminate the SEC team from the equation, so I will root for Georgia who is safely in, regardless of today's game.
They mean top-10 wins, and that's not going to happen outside the BTT.
Not that I'm opposed to Clemson moving into the top 50, just that it's not what people mean. (Besides, who knows what'll happen to MSU? If they lose out ...)
Biggest regular season/home closer combo in years. In the same group as the regular season closers in 1986, 1987, 2005 and 2006 at Crisler. Here's hoping we have a result like those games in the 1980s and not the more recent ones.
I did a Bubble News at the JCB. And, relevant to Michigan, they were the biggest bubble winners of the week so far and they havent even played a game. They had 4 mock votes a week ago at this time. But have 48 this morning. 23 of 29 of the most recent voters since Thursday have them in the field, that's over 80-percent support. Two other at large teams in the Matrix have less votes than Michigan, so Michigan is still moving up. Hopefully, Michigan actually hitting the court wont be their downfall because they were doing fine most of the week just by not playing.
Everything is up the air. Since everybody lost seemingly this last week, they all can still rise above the bubble crowd with a win today. Big games everywhere. And its awesome that Michigan isnt just a spoiler, but a legit contender controlling their own fate.
Line is MICH -1, by the way. Favored to beat Sparty? Am I here now? They are 9-1 ATS in their last games, though, so bettors arent fading them.
Do you know who is officiating today?
i m out of market anyone got a stream for the mich game?
Yesterday was a great day for our bubble status. Besides the obvious:
Kansas, Clemson, Alabama, Virginia, Iowa, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Harvard, Texas, Nebraska, USC, Bowling Green, San Diego State, Tulsa, Oakland, UCLA and UTEP all won. Only a handful of games went against what we wanted - primarily Memphis and Kansas State.
Next to Michigan winning there is nothing better than Princeton making the tournament. Unfortunately they lost to Harvard so they have a must win Tuesday.
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