Your BCS update, NOW WITH BCS RANKINGS

Submitted by Wolverine In Exile on
EDIT:: entry updated with BCS ranking information. Not too much to change.

Now with the BCS rankings, we run down the possible BCS setup...

10 BCS slots, 6 autobids, 4 at large

Autobids (assumptions listed in parenthesis, * for clinched)


ACC: Ga Tech (win ACC championship)
Big 10: OSU*
Big 12: Texas (win Big 12 championship, stay undefeated)
Big East: Cincinnati (finish undefeated)
Pac-10: Toss-up (discussed below)
SEC: Florida (winout)

So the only team that's in for sure right now is tOSU and they're going to the Rose Bowl against the Pac-10's only representative (Oregon, USC or Stanford). More on the Pac-10 later....

At-Large Slots (my guesses)
-------------------------------
1) Alabama (loss to Fla only blemish)
2) TCU (undefeated, stays in top 8 of BCS standings for autobid)
3) ???
4) ???

The Florida / Alabama loser is going to get the #1 at-large slot. TCU at 12-0 is a lock for a 2nd at-large and maybe a nat'l title shot jumping Cincy. Now it gets confusing, let's list the rest of the eligible teams for at-large slots from the Top 18 in the BCS standings (LSU not counted since 2 SEC teams are already in)...

Contenders: 12-0 Boise St, 10-2 Ok St, 10-2 Pitt, 10-2 Iowa, 10-2 Penn St, 9-3 VaTech, 10-2 Wisconsin, 9-3 Stanford, 9-3 USC, 9-3 Miami (YTM)

If Boise St stays in the Top 8 and undefeated, with their competition being a flurry of not just 1-loss teams, but 2-loss teams, I don't see how they can be left out at this point. This is the "Year of the Little Guy" in college football and I see the Powers That Be formalizing that with a Boise St at-large bid. For the fourth slot, I think it's  a matter of the specific bowl game again.... Per the BCS rules, with Florida and Texas in the championship, the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls  get first pick from at-large teams. Bama in the Sugar is a slam dunk as a SEC replacement for Florida. I think Fiesta takes TCU with their Dallas/ Ft Worth area fan base. Orange Bowl is next. I think they take an undefeated Cincy. So then we have:

BCS Championship:  Florida  v Texas
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Oregon / Arizona
Fiesta Bowl: TCU v ???
Orange Bowl: Ga Tech v. Cincy
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. ???

So we now have two at-large slots. Fiesta Bowl would get the first pick over Sugar since they're closest to the natl champ game in date, and I think the lure of a psuedo-natl chmp game between TCU and Boise is going to be too good to pass up, especially since Boise traveled REAL good last time they were in a BCS game. So Boise St in the Fiesta.

Sugar wants a big name team from a power conference to matchup against  Bama, and to me the choice is either  the Fightin T-Boones from OK St or a 2-loss Big Ten runner up, like Penn St/Wiscy/Iowa who travels REALLY well. I'll say Penn St over Iowa since Iowa will still be back-up QB'ing and Wiscy isn't as attractive as a JoePa led team.

So we are between a 2-loss Penn St and a 2-loss OK St. I think T-Boone greases a couple palms and gets OK St in against Bama, especially with a perceived "down" Big Ten. Giving us:

MY BEST GUESS
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BCS Championship:  Florida  v Texas
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Oregon / Arizona
Fiesta Bowl: TCU v Boise St (psuedo natl champ)
Orange Bowl: Ga Tech v. Cincy
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. OK St

If the Orange took lets say a 2-loss Penn St for the better TV and travel cache JoePa led Penn St brings over Cincy, I think we are then looking at the Fiesta taking Cincy for a TCU v Cincy matchup, and the Sugar, left with a Boise St v OK St v Miami (YTM) choice, may opt for a Bama v Miami (or OK St if t-Boone again starts giving out wind farm seed grants to BCS officials) matchup leaving Boise St outside looking in.

Lots of stuff still can happen. Wiscy and Penn St are playing for a BCS bid and OK St may sew one up if they can beat OU. Boise St is going to have to lay on the style points. Pitt I just don't know about.. I just don't think the Wannestache has enough pull yet to get a BCS bid over Penn St or even an undefeated Boise, so they're only hope is probably a win against Cincy.
BCS
not us

Comments

UMaD

November 15th, 2009 at 3:09 PM ^

if someone went for TCU vs Boise. Watching two undefeateds is enticing but offset by other factors. Most importantly - having 2 small schools instead of one kills the national interest and prestige of the bowl. I think a Bama vs. TCU (or Boise) matchup would have much better ratings because people want to see the non-BCS school prove it against elite competition. A best-of-the-rest bowl just isn't as enticing as a prove-it bowl. I'd imagine they'll split TCU and Boise up if they're both invited.

Joined: 07/02/2008

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Wolverine In Exile

November 15th, 2009 at 3:35 PM ^

the BCS choices aren't made in a darkened room by a committee like the NCAA tourney. As was pointed out to me in last weeks diary I wrote on this topic, the individual BCS bowls get to choose their teams based on a predetermined order for that season with mods based on who gets in the natl champ game. The Fiesta would have to pass up a closer prox team in Boise who traveled well their last time there in favor of a 2nd place Big Ten team or a runner-up Big Xii team. as much as I mocked T-Boone's money in the post, OK St doesn't have the greatest rep as a traveling team, so I'd imagine that OK St would have to lobby big time with guaranteed ticket sales to get the Fiesta bid. The Sugar doesn't get a choice until the Fiesta picks, so they may not have the option of taking Boise. If I'm the Fiesta, especially with how the Rose has the natll champ game this year, I'm getting two of the undefeated teams if I can and marketing the hell out of the "alternative natl championship" or "cinderella title" aspect as opposed to trying to market a 2-loss team taht didn't win their conference as being worthy of trying to knock off an undefeated TCU...

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UMaD

November 15th, 2009 at 10:22 PM ^

It depends on what they prioritize I guess and how much of a difference they expect in the traveling fanbase. I wonder how flexible their marketing program is. My guess is the Fiesta, if they were set on choosing TCU, wouldn't see a huge difference between the traveling fanbases of PSU, Boise, Ok State, etc. Prestige and national ratings, I would think, would matter here too. If someone looks at the history of matchups I'm not sure they want TCU vs. Boise State on there, since in most years thats a bad December bowl. But...you could be right too.

Joined: 07/02/2008

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plaidflannel

November 15th, 2009 at 4:51 PM ^

After seeing you match up Boise and TCU in a BCS Bowl game, I just think it's really ironic how an undefeated Boise State played a two-loss TCU team last year in a bowl game. It was the ever popular... SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL! I'm all for seeing non-AQ teams playing AQ teams in BCS games, but matching them together just seems dumb to me. Match them up in lesser bowls, sure. But not in BCS bowls. What are you really proving? If one team wins, they just beat another non-AQ team. No big deal. Play an AQ team and prove you mean business on the field (like Utah from last year).

Joined: 07/21/2009

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Wolverine In Exile

November 15th, 2009 at 5:17 PM ^

I think the clamoring will be for two other undefeated's to meet each other in a BCS game rather than more "prove yourself" games between BCS and non-BCS conf's. How many times does Utah / Boise St have to prove itself? We've already had non-AQ's go 3-1 in BCS games. I think the "they have to prove themselves argument" is null now. For the bowl games, I would argue that in order, the bowl wants: 1) strong ticket sales 2) Good TV ratings Boise St traveled well to the Fiesta in 06, TCU is going to travel strong wherever they go this year, the question to me would be if Cincy travels well. So far, the evidence says not so much-- in fact I would say the biggest factor in Cincy not traveling well this year is that Ohio St made a BCS game. If OSU didn't go BCS, the closet Cincy fans may have come out. But with OSU going now, the closet Cincy fan will fade into the Dollar General OSU fan (I live in Ohio now, and I strongly believe this to be the case). The TV ratings I think are going to be boosted for an undefeated / undefeated matchup more than a non-AQ against a 2-loss BCS team. I've also gotta think that the Sugar Bowl officials wantt a big name team to go against Alabama rather some small conference team. This is still a bowl game made for the SEC and southern fans...

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Topher

November 15th, 2009 at 5:42 PM ^

Do you think, as I have posited, that the BCS's next move to avoid Congressional action and avoid a straight playoff will be to admit the MWC? Or guarantee the highest-ranked independent team a BCS bid without the extra requirements? Or play-in the best mid-major teams to a BCS berth?

Joined: 07/05/2008

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Topher

November 15th, 2009 at 5:45 PM ^

"I think the clamoring will be for two other undefeated's to meet each other in a BCS game rather than more "prove yourself" games between BCS and non-BCS conf's. _How many times does Utah / Boise St have to prove itself?_ We've a;ready had non-AQ's go 3-1 in BCS games. I think the "they have to prove themselves argument" is null now. " On this note, do you think this might be the year when, as the season draws to a close, a clamoring of writers and voters dictate "the time has come for a mid-major to play for the national title"? That they will band together to put say a TCU over a BCS-conference team for all the marbles? One has to admit, it would be the best possible move for the BCS to preserve itself amid the playoff calls.

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Wolverine In Exile

November 15th, 2009 at 6:50 PM ^

the BCS commissioners don't want to split the big money with non-BCS conferences, but this year might be the "bite the bullet" year in terms of the money payouts so that then they can point to this in the next set of inevitable congressional hearings. I don't think there's a chance TCU gets a natl title shot over undefeated teams from BCS conferences, but just allowing the non-BCS undefeated's a chance at the big money bowl games will likely be enough to keep congress off their backs. Playoffs won't happen until the TV money is enough is to make it happen, and I think the first iteration may actually not involve some conferences (I could see the first "playoff" being all the BCS conferences except the Big 10 and Pac 10 who would keep the Rose Bowl while everybody else plays in a playoff)

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