The "Young Defense" of 2017 FB

Submitted by alum96 on

Just looking forward in a dead period of news and thinking out loud.  And yes I fully realize for most its laughable to think out to 2017 when we still have 2015 and 2016 to get through but I've noted in the past we may have some "OL of 2012/2013" issues coming down the pike on our 2017 defense so thought I'd quantify it and have some discussion.  Of course 2 years is an eternity in football but math is math.  And UM is simply lacking headcount due to our recent classes - much like the failures of 2010-2011 recruiting classes hit Hoke in 2013-2014, we may face some similar issues on D down the pike just from sheer lack of number of defensive recruits.

Image result for attrition

How did we get here?

If you are unfamiliar with our sordid past the easy explanation is one of the worst classes in UM history (if not the worst class) of 2010 combined with a transition class of 2011 (RR+Hoke) led to a lot of flameouts and attrition.  And that attrition came very fast in many cases - in my world view "very fast" in college football is when a player is out of the program within 2 years.  This led to very large 2012 (25 players) and 2013 (27 players) classes.  With low attrition in those 2 classes; a testament to Hoke in a time when not many football related things were in the positive column for him.  I believe only 4 players have left from those 2 classes (1 not by choice), leaving very few scholarships for 2014-2015.  So we had a 2014 class of 16 combined with a 2015 class of 14 = 30.  Compare that to our 2013 class of 27. 

Specific to the defense we only recruited 9 defensive players in 2013 and 4 in 2014.  That's a middling 13 players - of which one is already gone (Ferns).  12-ish defensive players is what you generally get in 1 class, not combined in 2.  Why do you care?  It's going to lead to a lack of upperclassmen down the road throughout our defense.

Here is a table comparing UM v OSU v MSU in 2014/2015 recruiting - overall and defensive player specific.  (Please note I do not know if MSU or OSU has suffered any attrition in their 2014 class ala Ferns)

  Total recruits Total recruits Total recruits Def recruits Def recruits Def recruits
  2014 2015 Combined 2014 2015 Combined
Michigan 16 14 30 9 4 13
OSU 27 27 54 13 12 25
MSU 22 21 43 12 11 23
             
Deficit v OSU     -24     -12
Deficit v MSU     -13     -10

While we have an astounding 24 (!!!!) players less than OSU in these last 2 classes that's a topic for another day.  Let's focus on the far right 3 columns - UM lags OSU by 12 players in these 2 classes on D and MSU by 10.  That means each of those two programs have 10 to 12 more "lottery tickets" towards valuable contributors on defense.  And if you account for UM's loss of Ferns it is really a 11 to 13 player defict.  That's an entire starting defensive unit worth of "chances" vs UM over 2 years.

My general (pulled our of rear end) rule is out of every 10 recruits you hope 5 become front line 2 deep contributors and 7 help the team (i.e. can do some work on special teams).  3 will flame out, leave, just not be good enough, be injured.  Maybe that is optimistic and the real number is 4 and 6 (rather than 5 and 7) - I've never looked at the %s long term for UM.  But the reality is UM is way behind these teams in these 2 classes - we only have 12 candidates in total (with Ferns gone) to make it through the program and become upperclassmen vs 25 and 23 for OSU and MSU respectively. 

Using my "70% rule" that means 8 of those 12 guys will be meaningful contributors by the time we get to their JR and SR years for UM, whereas OSU will have 17 and MSU 16.  That's a massive deficit for one side of the ball down the pike.

Won't this balance out down the road?

Yes it will - at least vs MSU.  The current count for 2016 scholarships is 14ish but assuming post spring attrition and some other losses next year of 5th year seniors etc we probably have a class near 20ish.  Then we have a huge class coming in 2017 if all other things hold steady - which they won't.  So we'll have some large classes leading to experienced teams in 2019-2020 (similar to having an experienced team in 2015).  But this discussion is for 2017.

OSU? Difficult to say - they somehow have recruited 108 guys in the past 4 years so will it ever really "balance out" vs them?  In theory yes - in reality not so much as they move players thru their system very quickly (wink wink).

Image result for old guys

Our "old guys" in 2017:

Let's look at the depth chart for 2017 with upperclassmen + the four 2015 recruits.  Keep in mind this assumes 100% retention and 100% contribution.  Which won't happen.  Right now (pending any loss of redshirts of the 2015s) we have 11 upperclassmen in total (1 deep, 2 deep, 3 deep, whatever deep) for 11 defensive positions in 2017 - that stinks.

My assumptions (which may or may not be correct):

  • I believe S Jabrill Peppers will be in the NFL in 2017.  If he is still with UM that is probably a very good thing for UM in 2017 but not such a good thing in 2015 and 2016 as it would mean - realistically - he fell short of his 5 star status.  He is not on my 2017 depth chart.
  • I have not include Brian Cole at S as Harbaugh indicated he will be a WR.  I do believe simply from a numbers perspective Cole someow makes it back to S down the road  from a need perspective even if WR is his better position but for now I go with the Harbaugh statement.
  • I assume NT Mone will remain at UM in 2017.  He has early promise and with NFL size already, 2 good years as a true SO and true JR could have him in the NFL draft as an early entry.  I have assumed not for this exercise; he remains on the depth chart.
  • We have four (!) defensive players in the 2015 class.  Obviously it is difficult to project who doesnt redshirt but based on need and experience of players in front of them I have taken the redshirt off only 1 of them - Shelton Johnson.  Reuben Jones is too small and Washington is a project ala Stribling.  Ty Kinnel would be the other guy we could take off the redshirt BUT unlike Johnson there seems to be a lot of guys ahead of him on the depth chart so I would not understand wasting a year like that unless Hill and Thomas are deemed to be busts by this staff.  I hope they dont waste guys like this as true freshman running around on special teams and doing nothing else like Hoke did, hence losing a RS SR year.
  RS SR SR RS JR JR RS SO
DE Poggi   Marshall Johnson* R. Jones
DT Hurst Jr Mone Pallante   None
LB McCray   Winovich   None
      Furbush    
      Wangler    
CB R. Dawson   Watson   Washington
S Noooobody   Noooobody   Kinnel

Image result for year 2017

Let's look at it position by position

I'll do best case, and (my) reality.  (I'll skip worst case) You may disagree with my reality.  But the math is the math - it will be a young defense overall.... and the secondary in particular brings up visions of the 2012 OL.  Other areas could also be troubling depending on development.

DEs

  • Need (4)
  • On roster (4)
SDE WDE
Poggi Marshall
Shelton Jones

General comment:  The reason I pulled off Shelton Johnson's redshirt is because aside from Mario O and Taco Charlton we have nothing in concrete behind them and Shelton is 6'5 250ish (allegedly).  So he has the size to play immediately as opposed to Reuben Jones.  Poggi was a high level recruit (Alabama offer) but thus far has created little buzz.  This is a position that it is tough to be impactful early but unlike Taco at this stage he has barely played.  We'll know better after this year what he is.  Marshall took his redshirt as he should have and hopefully shows us something as a RS FR in the pass rush.  But the door is open for Johnson as a backup and you have to account for injuries - any of these 4 guys goes down and you no longer have a 2 deep due to the misses of Malik McDowell and Hand in 2014.

Best case 2017: Poggi and Marshall begin to have impact this year as key backups.  Marshall takes over the 2016 starting WDE and Jones is his backup.  Johnson battles Poggi for the SDE in 2016, the better guy emerges as the starter.  Some 2016 recruit will be "5th man up" at DE as a RS FR.

More realistic case 2017:  One of these 4 players will not pan out either due to injury or just not cutting it at this level - that's just the odds.  A 2016 DE recruit will be in the 2 deep as a RS FR and be counted upon.  He could even be a starter if enough things fall the wrong way.

DTs

  • Need (4)
  • On roster (3)
NT DT
Mone Hurst Jr
Pallante 2016 RS FR

General comment:  DT should /could be the best position of the UM D the next 2 years with Henry, Mone, Wormley, Glasgow, et al.  But could become a very troubling position post 2016 as almost everyone graduates and there is no 2015 recruit in the assembly line. Pallante - a lightly regarded recruit - was the only 2014 recruit so that is back to back years without an "A list" recruit at these 2 DT positions.  Seems like we should have landed a higher level 2014 DT recruit - not sure what happened.

Mone is the one sure thing in 2017.  As long as he is on the UM roster.  Like Pipkins before him he played as a true freshman but unlike Pipkins it felt more like due to beating out people rather than a dearth of alternatives.  While his stats were not off the charts dude was a true FR playing a beastly position and seemed to hold up.  Hurst Jr is still a young buck and has been passed by other players at this point for playing time.  You sometimes hear good things about him - i.e. leading up to the bowl game in 2013 - but he remains largely a mystery.

Best case 2017: Mone stays and is a first team All Big 10 type player.  Hurst Jr develops nicely.  Pallante is a revelation in a Glasgow type development.  Even if all that happens you are stuck playing a 2016 recruit RS FR DT in your rotation.  That's not the end of the world - especially if he is another Mone type.  If it's a developmental player that's not good.

More realistic case 2017:  Very tough one to figure out as DTs usually don't show their face this early in their career so projecting a few years out is tough.  But lets say 1 of Hurst Jr or Pallante doesnt work out as a serious contributor.  It would mean both your backups are 2016 RS FR types. And if there is 1 injury here you'd potentially be starting a 2016 RS FR.  Not ideal at this position.  Mone leaving early for the NFL would be a major issue.

Image result for mike mccray

LBs

  • Need (6)
  • On Roster (4)
OLB MLB OLB
Winovich McCray Furbush
2016 true SO 2016 RS FR Wangler

General comment:  2015 will give UM a very experienced LB corps - then 2016 is going to be a mystery.  With Ferns gone (a player I really liked out of HS), 2016 looks like Ben Gedeon and... welp.  Will Gant ever see the field? There has been no talk of him in 3 years.  Will McCray?  He is still quite young, but little talk of him. It would be nice to see some of these guys get on the field at some point in 2015.  2017 is very difficult to project since we (properly) redshirted our 2014 class and we have barely seen anyone not named Gedeon out of the underclassmen.  And he will be gone by 2017.  Unfortunately Kirkland Jr decommited from 2015 and R. Smith never seemed like a legit option so the 2015 class brings nothing to LB. 

Best case 2017:  Magnus is wrong on Mike McCray and he becomes a legit Big 10 starter at MLB.  2 of the 3 of Winovich Furbush and Wangler become legitimate Big 10 starters and not starters only due to default (i.e. no one else on the roster).  Whichever of those 3 does not start is a valuable relief man.  We get two studs in the 2016 class, one of which will probably not redshirt in 2016 due to lack of depth chart.  Those will be backups in 2017 and/or 1 could be a potential starter in case of injury.

More realistic case 2017:  Realistically speaking we grabbed 4 LBs in 2014, and you have to assume one just won't contribute.  Ferns was the most "sure thing" of the 4 and is out of the program.  So my hope is 2 of the 3 remaining can be viable Big 10 players and not be out there because we literally have no one else.  I expect one of our 2016 LBs to not redshirt in 2016 and if a "top 50" type recruit potentially start over one of the 2014s - or at least push very hard.  It's a shame Kirkland or Smith did not commit - they almost certainly would have had a huge role on the 2017 LB core.  The 2016 LB recruits are critical and will be playing in some role - and not just one of them.  If Mike McCray does not work out this LB core will be super young and a potential big issue.

CBs

  • Need (5/6)
  • On Roster (3)
CB CB NB
Watson Washington 2016 true SO
2016 RS FR 2016 RS FR  

General comment:  Things get much more troubling in the secondary.  UM went in for a lot of 2015 CB recruits and missed on most.  The loss of Garrett Taylor in particular stings IMO; on paper he looked like a plug n play 2017 starter.  Instead we have Washington who is more in the Stribling mode - a good raw athlete with light offer sheet that needs a lot of coaching, 20 lbs, and a lot of weight room work.  Reon Dawson is a lot like a Tom Strobel and Blake Bars - you never hear anything about him so while on the roster I simply cannot project him as a contributor unless something changes in 2015.  That leaves Brandon Watson who has great size and I hope pushes Blake/Lyons* for a starting role this year as it would bode well for 2017.

Best case 2017:  Brandon Watson is a legit Big 10 starter.  Keith Washington has a "MSU CB" like development where they find great athletes who are raw at CB, RS them, and develop them into very good press corners.  UM lands a superstud 2016 recruit - said superstud would play in 2016 in a backup role or competing with Watson/Stribling across from Lewis then start in 2017.  Two other high level 2016 CBs redshirt and are ready to be backups in 2017.  Maybe Reon Dawson can help?

More realistic case 2017:  Well I don't have much different than the best case here.  The main positive here is CB is a position an athletic stud could come in and play early and not kill you too often.  Especially in a press scheme which UM is headed towards.   It should be easy to recruit stud CBs in 2016 - you can offer them almost immediate playing time.

Image result for ty kinnel michigan

Ss:

  • Need (4)
  • On Roster (1*)
S S
Kinnel Cole* or 2016 RS FR
2016 RS FR 2016 RS FR

General comment:  Welp.  It's never a good thing when your only proposed starter (or in fact player) at a position in 2 years has no photos in actual UM gear other than on a recruiting visit.  Unlike CBs where pure athleticism can get you through, S is a place you'd like some experience.  One blown read/assignment and Gary Nova is throwing for 45 yards on you or generic Minnesota RB is running for 50.  As a field general it is critical they understand the game - not just have the physical attributes.  UM has recruited this position badly for a decade in my estimation.  And of all the Hoke head scratchers - one that befuddles to this day - is dropping the recruitment of S Montae Nicholson in 2014.  He'd be the only sure thing on the 2017 roster at S - in fact the only upperclasssmen safety. Instead he played as a true freshman for a staff that is extremely stingy with letting freshman play - not only that he even started a few games.  *Bang head vs wall*.

Best case 2017:  Jabrill Peppers is not good enough to go to the NFL early.  Yes that's the "best case scenario".

Jordan Kovacs 2.0 enrolls at UM this fall.  Yes that's the second "best case scenario".

I have to think Brian Cole becomes a safety in 2017.  But if he is trainning as a WR in 2015 and 2016 I dont know how much that really helps.  It's a position you really need to understanding the whole defense and spending 2 years running routes then being asked in year 3 to convert to S doesnt make much sense to me.  But if not Cole it's basically a RS FR next to Kinnel.  Backed up by a RS FR and another RS FR.

More realistic case 2017:  I do think Ty Kinnel - as best as you can tell by reading about players - has the highest floor of our whopping four 2015 defensive recruits.  No idea on his ceiling but he already has NCAA size and has the luxury of RSing this year behind Wilson, Peppers, Thomas, and Hill. (Clark I assume is the 5th S or will enter the CB competition).  So even in my realistic case I don't think Kinnel is a non contributor.  But if an injury occurs here and Peppers goes to the NFL you are facing a 2012 OL situation with 2-3 2016 recruits and a true freshman 2017 recruit as our S rotation.  Potentially bracketed by a bunch of young CBs.

Takeaways:

  • No easy solutions
  • Our 8 remaining 2014 defensive players must have a high hit rate.
  • While this sounds tongue in cheek it is not... our four 2014 defensive players must have a high hit rate.  Like, err.... 3 of them must be starters.
  • The 2016 class must be loaded with near immediate contributors on defense, especially in the secondary.  A stud OLB who can immediately push for playing time would help too.
  • We are going to be young on defense in 2017 - at some places extremely.  2018 will be better to a degree if the 2016 class is very good, but will lack seniors ala the 2014 offense.  Then we go back to an experienced defense in 2019-2020 ala 2015.
  • UM needs to find high end skill players on offense soon to alleviate the issues - as we saw with OSU in 2014, special players at QB/RB and a stout OL can take pressure off your D.  When you score a bazillion points with NFL talent all over your offense, your D screwing up doesnt hurt so bad. We need to follow that gameplan post 2015 until 2019ish when both sides of the ball should be more equivalent in experience.

 

 

Comments

Wolverine 73

February 20th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^

Well, it will be easy to sell the top kids in 2016 on the great opportunities to play early they will have at Michigan.  If the team plays well this year, especially if it finishes strongly, I expect we will have a top notch recruiting class on defense in 2016, and a lot of them will see early playing time.  I hope.

alum96

February 20th, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^

One note on this as I see it a lot in many threads.  I dont think the 2016 season is going to impact the 2016 class that much.  It will probably impact the 2017 class.  If our class is 20 guys I'd expect 15-16 to be sewn up by first week of September.  You basically are talking about the guys who wait until the last moment (Dec 15/Jan 16) who will be affected by any amount by what happens in the football season through November 2015.  That's a limited group.  Maybe you can get an extra flip or something with a good season but by and large the majority of that class will be intact by fall and they are coming due to Michigan + Harbaugh + Durkin + hope + playing time.

jbibiza

February 21st, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^

 

Most of us are very hopeful that JH will reverse the trend of wasted redshirts, but perhaps he can also mitigate some of the damage that has been done in that regard over the past few years. Why not smooth out the kinks in the roster for 2017 by handing out a few non-freshman redshirts. The defensive ones that seem most doable to me are:
 
Stribling - Gives him another year to fill out and we are deep at CB this year.
Dymonte - A year of good coaching and then two more years to live up to his potential. Could say the same for Delano Hill but one of them has to play this year for depth.
Gedeon -  We are stacked at ILB this year and light next year. Has great potential to be a valuable 2 year starter in '16 and '17.
 
 
There are a couple I would like to see on offense as well:
Houma - He's not needed this year with Kerridge, and would give us a senior FB next year.
De'Veon - Convince him that if he has any future in the NFL it is at FB. Take a year to put on 15 lbs. of muscle and learn the position - he already has the attitude and could still be useful in short yardage 
 
 

Magnus

February 20th, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^

Brandon Watson started off playing corner, but he is a safety now. I can only assume that he will still be a safety in 2017, if he does not get injured/transfer before then.

alum96

February 20th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^

Yes I remember some talk of him getting some reps in the fall as safety.  Wasn't sure if that experimenting due to our other safeties just being crap or not.  If accurate that helps the S situation in 2017 a bit but hurts the CB situation by an equal amount.  It would make your 2017 CBs = Washington and hope. So it's a wash. 

 

Rabbit21

February 20th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

I foresee some grad transfers for 2016 to come in and shore up a positiion or two.  While I agree that the depth chart looks dire for 2016, I am not sure O-line of the past couple of years is the best analogy.  There will be some youth, but I have a feeling a coherent defensive scheme and expectations will help a great deal and in a way that the Offensive line was not helped.

jmdblue

February 20th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^

I like your "rule of thumb" regarding the odds of recruits becoming front line players, contributors or washouts.  Something to think about though..... The fewer members in a class the more likely a kid from that class becomes a player.  This both out of necessity and the coaching attention and experience that necessity entails.  I think we'll have the talent to compete on D in 2017.  What tends to scare me is the impact of potential injuries.  We really really can't afford 'em.

Ron Utah

February 20th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^

I'm not worried.

If our staff is as good as we think it is, this won't be a huge issue.  What makes me say that?  OSU's defense this year featured 13 players on the two-deep with one or no years of experience.  Their safeties each had one season of experience.

Would it be nice if the recruiting classes would smooth out a bit to prevent this in the future?  Yes and no.  Having years where you are loaded with seniors does seem to correlate to national success, so it may be worth having some lean years.

But like I said, Saban, Meyer, and even Fisher have demonstrated the ability to reload each year.  Harbaugh will do the same.

alum96

February 20th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

But Harbaugh wasn't very good at defense @ Stanford.  It was not until Vic Fangio showed up in 2010 that the Stanford defense took off.  And then Fangio was the leader at SF during Jim's years.  Yes UM has way more raw talent then Stanford gets but Jim is an offensive coach like just Urban and Rich Rod are.

So I wouldnt be expecting much if you lay it all on Harbaugh - this will be on Durkin and his staff.  (If Durkin is even around in 2017, he probably will have his "Houston" opportunity around that time)  Which obviously is a major upgrade over the Hoke regime, at least on paper.

 

  W/L Tot Off oFEI oS&P+   Tot Def dFEI dS&P+
2006 1-11 118 - 113   97 - 99
2007 4-8 107 61 83   98 49 85
2008 5-7 67 48 31   75 80 87
2009 8-5 19 1 6   90 91 113
2010 12-1 14 5 3   21 6 6
2011 11-2 8 6 8   26 13 22

 

 

getsome

February 20th, 2015 at 6:13 PM ^

well osu had one of the best D-lines in the country (just like saban and fisher always have top 5 DLs at bama and fsu) - that changes everything.  not to mention osu just simply out-recruits um over time (not opinion, but fact).  its usually easier to plug in younger players if theyre elite athletes and part of top 5 national classes.  

hopefully harbaugh finds those diamonds in rough like darron lee (a QB / S prospect with elite speed who added 25 lbs in a year), and im sure he will find and develop his share.  also i love the comment about the O finding elite playmakers and developing into that unit that drops 40-50 on the opponent and in turn really helps the D

HANCOCK

February 20th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^

I want to see Peppers succeed and I think he is a gifted player, but I always have to laugh when people feel the need to qualify every statement about him and mention that he is going to be leaving for the NFL in a couple years.

 

The kid hasn't even played a full season in the Big Ten. Has he even played a full game? 

 

I'm all for expectations and I hope Peppers lives up to his recruiting status, but to simply concede that Peppers is gone after 2016 is getting a little carried away. He has a long way to go before he is a "leave early as a #1 NFL draft pick" caliber player.

alum96

February 20th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^

Oh generally I agree with that 100%.  Which is why I have no opinion of Ty Isaac until I see him play vs the non patsies he got 80% of his limited yards against as a USC freshman.  Compared to Nick Chubb for example who was a monster as a 5 star freshman once Gurley went down.

There was a piece I posted a month ago about how the 2014 five stars were doing - many were off to very good starts.  I'll just say anyone in the top 10 should be expected to go pro early.  Id say probably half the 5 stars in that class - almost all rated lower than Peppers are on their way early.  That doesnt mean Peppers will be - obviously we have no data outside of a game vs a MAC team and half a game vs anyone else to judge.

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/247-how-2014s-5-stars-fared

 

Here are a couple of guys in Peppers sphere and how they did.  Ironically every  guy in the top 8 but the 2 UM were serious contendors for looks on his way to the NFL early.

1. Leonard Fournette, LSU. Made the most of his 187 carries, gaining 1,034 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns. Took a kickoff back for a touchdown in the Music City Bowl.

3. Jabrill Peppers, Michigan. Started one game at cornerback but took a medical redshirt because of a leg injury.



5. Da’Shawn Hand, Alabama. A defensive reserve who had two sacks. Will play a bigger role in 2015.



7. Adoree’ Jackson, Southern Cal. Took two kickoffs back for touchdowns, caught three touchdowns. That was before he moved mostly permanently to cornerback, where he started 10 games.

2. Myles Garrett, Texas A&M. The defensive end’s 11 sacks broke Jadeveon Clowney’s SEC freshman record.

4. Cameron Robinson, Alabama. Stud left tackle was named the 247Sports Freshman of the Year and looks like a future top-five NFL draft pick.

6. Quin Blanding, Virginia. Started all 12 games for the Cavaliers at safety. Named to every all-rookie team you can think of. Second in the ACC with 123 tackles.

8. Speedy Noil, Texas A&M. Electric wideout led the Aggies in all-purpose yardage and scored five touchdowns.

13. Dalvin Cook, Florida State. Perhaps the offensive MVP for the Seminoles, Cook rushed for 1,008 yards and scored eight times.

Mr. Yost

February 27th, 2015 at 10:41 PM ^

...until it kind of sorts itself out over time.

We're going to have 2 HUGE classes and 2 small classes.

It's just the affect of the past, this really isn't a surprise. We took a ridiculously small number of players this past year, it's obvious that coming up we're going to have to have a ridiculously large class to counter it.

I'd love to get to the point where we're consistently taking the same number of players, but that's just not going to happen. Not until we're good enough we can bank some of the scholarships from the large years to the small years and even everything out.