things go poorly
Yinka Double Dare
With Penn State's double OT loss at Iowa (and PSU needed a comeback from 9 down with under 2:30 left to get it to OT), the picture clears up a tiny bit, but not much. Only three conference games remain: Purdue @ MSU, Northwestern @ Ohio State, and Indiana @ Wisconsin. I'm going to try to break down the scenarios.
The tiebreakers are here: http://bigtennetwork.com/Championships/Big-Ten-Basketball-Tiebreaker.asp
Michigan State has clinched the outright conference title and the 1 seed. Iowa is the 10 seed, and Indiana is the 11 seed. These seeds are set. Seeds 2-9 are still not set.
Purdue controls who is the 2 seed and who is the 3. If Purdue beats MSU, then Purdue is the 2 seed. If Purdue loses to MSU, then Illinois is the 2 seed by virtue of its season sweep over Purdue.
Wisconsin is the 4 seed if they win against IU regardless of the other games, as they swept PSU and won their only game against OSU. If they lose, see below.
Ohio State is the 4 seed if they win and Wisconsin loses. They are the 5 seed if they win and Wisconsin wins. If they lose, well, see below -- they can fall as low as the 8/9 game.
Penn State is the 4 seed if both Wisconsin and OSU lose. They are the 5 seed if either of those teams lose. They are the 6 seed if both of those teams win.
And now for the fun part involving the fates of Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, and potentially Ohio State and/or Wisconsin should either or both of those teams lose.
IF OHIO STATE AND WISCONSIN BOTH WIN:
Fairly straight forward. Northwestern is the 9. Michigan is the 7 by virtue of a sweep over Minny. Minnesota is the 8.
IF WISCONSIN WINS AND OHIO STATE LOSES TO NORTHWESTERN:
We have a 4 way tie. The records against the group are:
That makes Michigan the 6 seed. Minnesota is the 9 seed. Because the other two teams are tied, we next move to best record against MSU. This makes Northwestern the 7 seed due to their victory at the Breslin Center while OSU did not, thus leaving Ohio State as the 8 seed.
IF WISCONSIN LOSES AND OSU WINS:
Northwestern is the 9 seed. In the round robin of Wisco, Michigan and Minny, each of the teams swept one and got swept by the other. None of them beat MSU, and Michigan becomes the 6 seed by virtue of a win over Purdue while the others did not (Purdue losing to MSU won't matter because all 3 teams split with Ill.). Wisconsin takes the 7 spot having swept Penn State and Ohio State (the next teams in the standings, which are tied in this scenario), leaving Minnesota in the 8 spot.
IF WISCONSIN AND OHIO STATE BOTH LOSE:
Nightmare scenario. As best as I can tell, only Wisconsin (4-3) and Ohio State (3-4) do not have a .500 record against the resulting 5-way tie group. Wisconsin becomes the 5 seed on that basis and Ohio State becomes the 9. Of the three .500 teams, Northwestern gets the 6 seed because of their MSU win. Michigan would be the 7 because of a win over Purdue (both Minn and Mich split with Ill, so even if Purdue loses to MSU, Michigan is still 7), and Minnesota would get the 8.
Hopefully I got all this right. The tiebreakers are a real doozy.