Yet Another CC Roundup!
I've been loving the on-going CC roundup series by Alum96 and Ron Utah, but honestly I can't get enough of speculating on who our next coach will be. So I figured--what the hell, here's another roundup! Today I look at five potential coaches (well, four real ones) from a different angle...
1. Jim Harbaugh
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Could tear a path of destruction through the weak Big 10, including among those who have benefitted most from our seven-year journey through football purgatory. No question whatsoever about his drive to win, which would probably happen frequently and emphatically. Bonus of the inevitable "what’s YOUR deal" moment with Dantonio.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Bolting to the NFL is always a concern; ultra-competitive, Alpha-plus personality rubs a lot of people the wrong way.
TRANSITION COSTS: Minimal. Harbaugh’s NFL success (as player and coach) would act as a magnet for recruits. And while Harbaugh is an inveterate tinkerer, he’s had success running multiple offensive schemes (power running, TE-heavy at Stanford; zone running, dual-threat stuff with the 49ers).
OVERALL DESIRABILITY: Astronomically high.
CHANCES OF HIM COMING: Either very high or very low, depending on which unsubstantiated rumors you believe.
2. Les Miles
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Turns Michigan into “the LSU of the North,” to compete with MSU’s “Alabama of the North” and OSU’s “Florida of the North.” Great recruiting classes, monster defenses, good enough offenses and a healthy proportion of 10+ win seasons.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Always possible that a coach in his 60s will have lost his drive this late in his career, and would be content bringing stability to the program rather than championships. Unclear if his roster management would suffer in the no-oversigning context of the Big 10. That thing that may have happened in the 90s might prove to still be a source of division among program insiders.
TRANSITION COSTS: Minimal. Miles doesn’t do anything schematically that would require different players from the ones we have (though he would probably do a better job developing talent).
OVERALL DESIRABILITY: High for many people; extremely low for some others. Balance is moderate-to-high.
CHANCES OF HIM COMING: He has allegedly said that he wouldn’t say no to Michigan, but even so we failed to offer him the last two times, which makes you wonder if we ever would.
3. Dan Mullen
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: This year is no fluke, meaning he's Urban 2.0. Could therefore pull a Bo and one-up the old mentor.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Success this year at Missisippi State could turn out to be a mirage of sorts, and previous years, in which Mississippi State beat the SEC bottom-dwellers and lost to the elite could turn out to be more indicative of what he'd do here.
TRANSITION COSTS: Moderate on offense—spread-with-power is a good fit for the Big 10, as Meyer has demonstrated at OSU, but we don’t have a Braxton Miller or Carlos Hyde on the roster, so it would probably take a little longer for us to get all the pieces in place. Negligible on defense.
OVERALL DESIRABILITY: High, and potentially very high, but with an element of nervousness.
CHANCES OF HIM COMING: Depends on Florida. Most have him pegged for Gainesville, though that may be a no-go. If Florida is in the running, I’d say our chances of landing him are moderate at best. But if Florida is indeed out of the running, the Michigan is the only AAA job on the board in a year when his stock will never be higher.
4. Todd Graham
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Fast, aggressive defenses paired with spread-to-pass offenses, wins big games with regularity.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Treats Michigan as another quick stop on the roadtrip; outward Christian piety clashes with institutional culture at the University.
TRANSITION COSTS: Moderate on offense—we have enough wideouts to run a passing spread, but I’m not sure the rest of the roster is well suited to it. Low on defense—we don’t really look like ASU on defense, but Graham is a defensive-minded coach, so I'm sure he can adjust.
CHANCES OF HIM COMING: Moderate. He’s always a risk to go anywhere the lights are bigger and brighter, but he’s also close to some of RR’s staffers, so may not have a great opinion of Michigan as a work environment (for an outsider). May be more keen on Florida.
5. Bill Belichick
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: Endless, Sith-like power. Drew Sharp self-destruct sequence initiates.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE: Enjoys the company of Mike Vrabel, Nick Saban.
TRANSITION COSTS: Non-existent, since now any walk-on might run for 200 yards or record 6 sacks at any given moment.
CHANCES OF THEM COMING: A man can dream, can’t he?
November 19th, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^
Graham is not necessarily a spread-to-pass guy. At Tulsa was spread-to-run after 1st season. He hands this off to the OC and gets out of the way. Which is why a Graham/Stitt combo is so tasty.
November 19th, 2014 at 5:10 PM ^
...but he's also running spread-to-pass right now, and I imagine that's probably what he'd want to run at Michigan too. I'd be perfectly happy with that, as I love that offense. But it would undeniably require some transition costs. Also, the observation about our personnel needing some transition time/requiring some transition costs is equally true for spread-to-run.
That said, I don't see Graham as a high cost hire--that's why I used the word "moderate." :P
November 19th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
pros & cons.
You can dress it up however you want, but the beef with Brady Hoke boils down to he hasn't won fast enough.
Now, he got 1 more year than RR, so I guess that's progress. But I simply don't see this fan base putting up with another 3, 4 years of transition. I really think whoever comes in has to be able to win with the roster Hoke has assembled within 1, 2 years. Any coach who wouldn't find the players for his system on the current roster IMO won't be able to win fast enough (and based on comments on this blog I'd say fast enough is basically the Urban Meyer level of winning.)
Really, with the youth (UM has the 2nd youngest roster in the Big 10) and talent, if UM can't hire this type of coach then as unpopular as it is you might as well give Hoke another year and see what he can do whith his first senior class (2011 shouldn't count, as it's the hybrid Process class) and a QB recruited for his system. I may be wrong, but didn't Brian argue at the beginning of Hoke's tenure that the fan base should be patient in the face of being too impatient with RR and see what Hoke could do with his 1st seniors, since Bo's position was a coach should be given 5 years before being judged?
November 19th, 2014 at 5:16 PM ^
I agree that most fans want to win right away. After two poor transitions, many of us are sick of waiting. That's a perfectly legitimate attitude, though others might argue that it's worth sucking it up a bit longer if we end up with a more sustainable end result.
Luckily none of the four CCs I profiled here should come with large-scale transition costs--Mullen is the only one I'd refer to as a "system guy" on offense, but his version of spread-to-run seems like a better fit for the guys we have than a smaller, speedier version. Plus while Morris isn't really a dual-threat QB, but he's not a statue either. So I still don't see the transition costs as all that high, and Mullen has an obviously high potential upside.
November 19th, 2014 at 6:29 PM ^
His problem is that he's leading the team sharply backward, not that he isn't winning fast enough. The risk of keeping him on is that this trend continues The QB excuse doesn't carry any weight. He liked Gardner enough to not sign a QB in 2012. I don't believe Morris was recruited because he fit a particular system. He was a local 5* who loved Michigan. If the argument is that we need to give Hoke a year of Morris starting, where is the evidence that he's gotten Morris prepared to take over and run his offense?
I'm not that worried about the transition costs simply because I doubt the offense he wants to run is best suited to this roster. RR's would be a worse fit, but the names bandied about would likely do better with the current personnel.
November 19th, 2014 at 7:05 PM ^
parallelled the decline in average age on the O-Line. I'm sorry, that declining age isn't on him. And we have another example of the effects of poor O-Line recruiting (due to sanctions in this case): look at how Hackenburg's production has declined this year due to the lack of O-Line (IIRC, 2 of their starters are converted DL.)
Magnus is in the forefront on criticizing Hoke on not taking a QB in 12. But are you really so sure that taking any QB, just to have a QB, in 12 would have fixed things now? Isn't Bellomy the counter to your argument? Oh, and they did look for another QB - remember the search for a grad transfer/juco transfer? But nothing panned out.
But what's really killed them this year is the interceptions and the dropped passes. You can look at game after game where if the ball hadn't been turned over/dropped so much some losses could have been wins. It's not as if they've been coaching that. And there has been speculation that Gardner's performance has been hindered by injuries. As for Morris, maybe he's not the answer. Or maybe a QB who had mono in his SR year of HS and is working with the 2nd OC in 2 years shouldn't be expected to be ready to start in his 2nd year.
November 19th, 2014 at 7:29 PM ^
There's no guarantee, but you pointed to several reasons that it very possibly could have. I don't think there's any doubt we could have used more quality depth at the position. At the very least, it's inconsistent with the idea that he needs more time to install a QB suited to his system. He was happy enough with Gardner to not even try. That shouldn't buy him extra time.
I don't like that OL argument either. One young position group shouldn't bring down the entire team. He obviously should recognize that kind of problem well in advance. He's insisted on running offenses that magnified that weakness. If it was truly a multi-year problem, he came up with about the worst possible solution.
November 19th, 2014 at 8:31 PM ^
I'm sure he recognized the issue right away. But where, exactly, was he supposed to find experienced O-Line players to tranfer to UM to fill the holes? This isn't the NFL, where you can find free agents. You have to find players to transfer. But then they usually have to sit out a year (see Ty Isaacs) AND they have to be admitted to the school. It's not that easy to transfer to UM, which for example makes the JUCO transfers that other schools utilize an unlikely option.
As for one position group bringing down a team's performance isn't that, for example, a contributor to MSU's losses this year? I seem to recall reading that their DBs are not as exceptional this year as last.
And finally, I'm no football expert, but I was under the impression that the game depended a great deal on the lines. So I'm not sure how effectively one can scheme around a lack of bodies and/or experience on the lines - offense or defense.
November 19th, 2014 at 8:59 PM ^
insisted on playing his version of manball. That required a stronger and more experienced line than he had. It also didn't work so well with the talent he inherited like Omameh. With the interior line he had last year it just seemed particularly misguided. Now he's gone back to a zone blocking scheme, so that painful transition was all for naught.
MSU has taken a step back from a great season where they arguably outperformed their talent. That's hard to maintain. We're losing multiple blowouts and are barely scoring except against the feeblest of opponents.
November 21st, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
The change of OC should have helped Morris' progress, not hindered it. His two problems as a passer are horrible accuracy and little to no touch. Yeah, he's got a high powered rifle, a high powered rifle with blown out rifling and broken sights. Nussmeier should have been able to fix him...though we thought Nussmeier should be able to fix Gardner as well.
Scratch that, the change of OC probably did considerable damage to the QBs.
November 20th, 2014 at 4:32 AM ^
RR had to work around sabotage from so-called "MIchigan men." Brady Hoke had to do exactly what David Brandon told him to.
The new coach won't have either of those monumental obstacles to overcome. A better coach could improve on this year's record with the same players who are on the team now. The "transition" won't be all that much with any coach, pro style or spread.
November 19th, 2014 at 6:16 PM ^
I feel like the discussion of the downside to Les Miles is incomplete if it doesn't include some mention of "That Eliot Porter thing." It's not enough to say he oversigned like the rest of the SEC. He pushed the envelope when it came to screwing over his players.
November 19th, 2014 at 6:31 PM ^
You picked some funny pictures for this one ;) except for BB, in which that is his only face (much like Mark Dantonio).
November 19th, 2014 at 9:29 PM ^
(Except Belichick. #TeamSith.)
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November 19th, 2014 at 6:51 PM ^
Most of these guys are in the same category: dreamland.
I figure as long as we're in dreamland, we might as well dream about Jim Harbaugh, because we collectively believe that he will not only kick everyone's ass but afterward rub snow in their faces.
He's the only irascible sumbitch that is capable of quieting the Michigan family, for the moment.
Maybe Harbaugh senses that there is a tremor in the force.
Maybe Harbaugh got the message from R2D2 that he's our only hope.
Maybe Harbaugh knows that Darth Dantonio and Emperor Palaturbz are prepared to use the Death Star against Planet Michigan.
Then again, maybe Harbaugh could give a rat's ass about whether that happens. It's going to be an interesting upcoming few months. And by interesting, I don't mean "good interesting." I mean "stressful interesting." And "wishful interesting."
November 19th, 2014 at 7:23 PM ^
November 19th, 2014 at 9:33 PM ^
25% of Harbaugh being our next coach,
40% of Mullens being our next coach.
75% of Miles being our next coach.
November 19th, 2014 at 9:40 PM ^
November 19th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^
If we get any of these guys, its an upgrade over Hoke. I know I keep saying this, however, Graham is the best realistic option. I think he would stay a very long time if he did well here.
November 20th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
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November 19th, 2014 at 11:12 PM ^
Obviously I burn incense at the altar I have constructed for St. Harbaugh, but Todd Graham wins. He is Kevin Sumlin without the "cool drinking buddy" vibe. He is a defensive guy who is known for adjusting and hiring beastly coordinators.
I think he would come in and hire an OC that would be able to tailor something to what he finds. Don't forget, when he took over ASU, he didn't go through a rough transitional phase, he just started winning. Also, his team is loaded with freshman on defense, and he was playing his 3rd string QB this year. They look like they could win 10 games this year. That is ridiculous.
He jumps jobs, yes--when a better one becomes available...but unless he is thinking NFL, what on Earth would be better than Michigan?
That's all I got, I am going to go and sacrifice something to the Harbaugh right now...like a live duck or something.
November 19th, 2014 at 11:43 PM ^
Wow what a difference a month makes. When I floated Graham a month ago as who should be #2 behind Harbaugh (well 2A and 2B with Patterson) I was met with pitchforks and torches. ;)
As a pure football coach I think he is top 10 in the country IMO. His talent at ASU lags far behind what Oregon UCLA USC get yet he is competitive immediately. This year was supposed to be a rebuild year for ASU but they were in the playoff story up til last week. Their 2 deep (44 players) has 7-8 seniors on it - that's sick. ASU might be the Pac 12 favorite next year or if not will be 1A and 1B with Oregon.
I also his eye for identifying talented coordinators.
Culturally I dont know if UM could take him - there is how he has departed other locations and also his "deep south" roots which unfortunately seems to be an issue for such an "inclusive" university. He reminds me a lot of Brian Kelly which is good and bad.
I do think he should be the first call for Florida.
November 20th, 2014 at 12:05 AM ^
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November 20th, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
Serious question: What's the difference between Michigan and Florida that this would be an issue here and not there?
November 20th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
But also need to underscore, I don't see a "culture clash" over religiosity as a fait accompli, but rather as a possible issue that could come up. Or it might never be even the tiniest issue whatsoever.
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November 20th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
I agree that it might come up as an issue, I just have no evidence whatsoever that Michigan fans would care and Florida fans (or ASU fans, for that matter) would not. What is "the difference between the state of Michigan and the state of Florida"?
November 21st, 2014 at 8:14 PM ^
church you belong to.
That's not usual up north, and I think most people's reaction would be NOYB.
November 20th, 2014 at 1:42 AM ^
I have always been high on Graham, and your articles and discussions of his worth only reinforced that. This man is one of the best coaches in the country, in my opinion. People talk about Mullen "doing more with less." No one has done "more with less" than Graham.
I went to the University of Michigan, and I know what the "culture" is up there. But I honestly think what Graham could do with the talent he could get here would hush up anyone who says he is "too southern" or "too Christian." I personally don't care what he believes in; if he is a Millerite, 2012 believer I'll think he is nuts, but if he wins, I'll be all about it.
November 20th, 2014 at 8:02 AM ^
mostly from you, about his being a southerner is way overblown. I think that was the least of RR's problems here. It was an issue to a tiny minority and after he gave them other reasons to be unhappy. There were some unhappy that we hired an outsider. This time around, some would be unhappy that he isn't Harbaugh. You can't please everyone.
The outward piety would be new in Ann Arbor. I wouldn't want to pre-judge how that would be received. Maybe he adjusts according to his audience. It won't matter if he wins.
My biggest concern with Graham would be his bolting for the NFL. Was it you that gave some quote about it being his ambition? His leaving after a season or two could set us back. Would he agree to a buyout that would essentially rule that out?
November 20th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
I don't worry so much about the "bolting" for the NFL part; to me, he looks and seems like a guy who wants to be at a major university. He has that college coach vibe. I feel this because when I watch ASU games, and look at him at the sidelines, I don't see that "Professional Mentality." He is always jumping around, changing plays, calming kids down, firing kids up, etc. He's got that Saban look about him--this does not mean I am comparing his potential to Saban, just stating that he behaves kind of like him.
I would think that if he did bolt, it would be because he found insane levels of success here--which would mean that he got Michigan back to where Michigan belongs, and we would be able to hire one of his coordinators or whatever to run the show from there. If he comes in, dominates for five years, gets an NFL gig, and leaves a coordinator in place to carry it on, I think we would be happy with that. It kind of looks like the Kelly to Philly situation, where he left his OC to run the show and they didn't miss a beat.
November 19th, 2014 at 11:18 PM ^
Yeah, Graham is a tough one. I hate everything about him as far as his demeanor, ethics questions, open piety, that goddamn bob barker game show host headset (although it IS a headset), and his jarhead crewcut. Unfortunately, his record of turnarounds, winning, doing a lot with a little, defensive mindedness, OC hires, and general performance is off the charts. If we were in a less desperate position I would say no way. For me I'm not sure Mullen is a better hire than this guy, even though Mullen is much more likeable.
November 20th, 2014 at 8:30 AM ^
November 20th, 2014 at 8:45 AM ^
I called dibs on him in 2007 during the holoscan days.
November 20th, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^
It's been hinted at so many times but I do not know the story of why/how Les Miles burned bridges & made enemies here. Could someone please elaborate?
November 20th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^
Les banged Gary Moeller's wife:
November 20th, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^
Oh come on Grandma, don't act so shocked, everyone was banging their bosse's wife back in the 90s.
November 20th, 2014 at 10:35 AM ^
November 20th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
Not saying he's my first choice, just the most likely.The M ties, the supposed desire to finish his career where it began, the feeling that a few have expressed that it's probably time for him to have a change of scenery from Baton Rouge all give this legs, in my opinion. Though he's 61 he's probably got nearly a decade of coaching left in him. I also think that short of Jim Harbaugh, Miles has the lowest transition costs as he could immediately use the roster he'd inherit. He's definitely more of a CEO and has made some boneheaded in-game calls, but I have no doubt he'd win at Michigan.
Finally,as for the burned bridges or whatever Les did or did not do with Mrs. Moeller, fingers crossed that with Brandon and MSC no longer in the picture those concerns will not block Miles from coming (again). Does anybody know if Hackett enjoys sailing?
November 20th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
I obviously follow football with more devotion than the average person, and like to stay up on schemes reasonably well, but I have nothing approaching coach-type knowledge, even at the lowest level. I am curious as to just how damaging of a transition Michigan is looking at if the new coach isn't Jim Harbaugh. Based on my rudimentary knowledge, 2015 Michigan is lacking, for spread schemes (please fill in my gaps and make corrections as needed)...
Spread-to-run - obviously a dual-threat, option-suited QB. Beyond that...more mobile linemen? RBs more east-west than downhill? Receivers who are better at blocking? Am I close?
Spread-to-pass - receivers that are less "vertical threat" and more Gallon-like? What about QB? I've never been clear on what, if anything, separates a passing spread QB from what Michigan has waiting in the wings. Is a downhill back OK in a passing spread, or does that too require a lighter, quicker type? Do O-line personnel matter as much here as they do in a zone-read spread?
November 20th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
A good coach, no matter his system, will get us winning a lot more games per season then Hoke! If Hoke is retained, I will be quite depressed and unsure about the future of our football program!
November 20th, 2014 at 3:03 PM ^
Yes, Michigan has talent, but that alone doesn't mean any system will fit. Different offensive philosophies have their own optimal personnel, in terms of skill sets and physical attributes. Such specifics were what I was asking about.
November 20th, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^
The most efficient route to immediate improvement in our running game, for example, would be to stick to an inside zone-based scheme utilizing pass protecting RBs and single/double TEs. That's what we've been implementing this year, after all.
We could also shift from there to "spread-with-power", I think, without too high transition costs. Some, and probably higher than when Urban took over OSU (due to said lack of Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde), but not too high.
November 20th, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^
That Les Miles picture is absolutely masochistically hilarious. I would love to see our (future) football players do that to him weekly, even for only the next 3-5 years.
November 20th, 2014 at 2:52 PM ^
I'm just curious, and pardon my potentail laziness, but can anyone tell me how Todd Graham is as a disciplinarian? Do his players stay out of trouble, get good grades, etc.?
November 21st, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
November 26th, 2014 at 8:03 AM ^
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