WR stats and random comments on WK1

Okay, I realize my previous diary was not well received and I had a lot of 'splaining to do.  In the middle of the night I had a half drunken, half baked, brilliant idea about how to better evaluate wide receivers in this day and age of the spread offense. 

We've seen QB completion percentages rise and rise.  Thirty years ago, 45% might have won you the heisman, now it means you're third string.  The point is, that just catching balls is not really enough if you're catching all of them behind the line of scrimmage.  It's pretty amazing if you pull down a one handed stab ala Koger, but in the modern offense, we need better measuring sticks. 

So I'm going to track my new stat categories for this season and beyond, and maybe some smart reporter (is that an oxymoron?) or someone else will pick up on how useful these stats are. 

After only one game, they won't be very telling.  But as the weeks go by, we'll be able to see which WR are performing relatively better from week to week.  We also need some historical context.  I said I would go back and review tapes from previous years, but I haven't had the time YET.  I still plan on doing it, but it might not happen till after the season.  Feel free to do this on your own if you've got lots of time on your hands.

Anyway let's get to it.  First up is the raw data, the notes I made while watching the video.  Then I'll give the stats, and finally I'll toss in some comments about the week for good measure.

Passing Down Notes:

1st quarter

• 5 yards to hemingway no yac on 1st down

  Swing to odoms behind the line gain of 7 but penalty odoms in motion early

  2nd 11 pass to carlos for 5 plus 8 yac

  2nd and 10 on 28 yardline TD to Hemmingway 17 plus 11 yac

  2nd and 12 incomplete to grady on a screen

  3rd and 12 incomplete to webb

  2^nd and 5 4 yards to grady plus 4 yac

  1^st and 10 incomplete to Hemmingway didn’t look

2nd quarter

• 2^nd and 5 koger 4 plus 1 yac

  2^nd and goal from the 8, TD koger redzone

  1^st and 10 incomplete to matthews broke off route or wrong route

  2^nd and 10 (robinson) to savoy behind the line for -1 plus 12 yac

  2^nd and 15 (tate) to shaw for 6 on a comeback, no ruled incomplete
  

  (matthews shaken up)
  

  3^rd and 9 screen hemingway for -2 plus 17 yac

  1^st and 10 incomplete to stonum broke off deep route

  3^rd and 7 TD hemingway same route as stonum, 36 plus 8 yac

3rd quarter

• 2^nd and 7 odoms -4 plus 9 yac

  1^st and 10 hemmingway 8 plus 4 yac limps off the field

  2^nd and 4 mathews for 0 plus 9 yac

  2^nd and 3 incomplete to savoy, pressure

  1^st and 20 incomplete to matthews, broke off route Mathews looks really frustrated

            1^st and 10 matthews 5 plus 5 yac

• 3^rd and 16 INTerception, mathews was jogging on the goal line, DB undercut Sheridan is chewing out savoy who was wide right
  

  1^st and 10 grady for -3 plus 9 yac

  3^rd and 2 incomplete to grady

4th quarter

• 3^rd and 15 nearly intercepted incomplete to matthews

  2^nd and 9 scramble should have passed

  1^st and 10 KOGER great 1 handed catch for 20

  3^rd and goal from the 10 redzone busted play incomplete flag

  4^th and goal from the 10 redzone incomplete to cox

STATS
As always, small sample sizes screw around with efficiency stats.  But as the numbers accumulate, these will be more telling. So please have patience.
 
1st Stat Category: Yards per thrown at
This stat is better than yards per catch because it includes a penalty for players who drop the ball or loaf it on a play and don't get open.  Yes they are penalized for having a bad QB but that would affect all the numbers across the board.

Hemingway  17.33
C. Brown      13
Koger           11
Savoy             5.5
Odoms           5
Grady(19)      3.5
Mathews        3.16
Stonum, Webb, Cox, Shaw, 0

2nd Stat Category: TD's per Redzone thrown at
This is a stat built for the big men, the goto guys who can get in the endzone. Amazingly, we only attempted 3 redzone passes all day.  1 was a TD to koger, 1 was a busted play, and 1 was the final offensive play from coner

Koger   1.00
Cox       0.00

3rd Stat Category: Conversion Efficiency (receiving yards minus (half the yards to go)) multiplied by the down number per thrown at
This is the most complicated stat. This one tells how good a receiver is at continuing a drive.  Possesion receivers score high on this metric.  Guys that only run fly routes and catch the ball one out of 5 times get killed by this measure.

Hemingway      33.5
C. Brown           15
Koger                  9.33
Savoy                  4.5
Odoms                3
Grady (19)         -0.75
Stonum              -5
Mathews            -7.083
Shaw                 -15
Webb                -18
Cox                    -20

(Hmmm.... no one likes negative numbers so I might tweek the formula and make it 1/4 of the yards to go.  what do you guys think?)

4th Stat Category: Snag and Go (Total receiving yards/(yards BEFORE the catch)) multiplied by (receptions per thrown at)
I just realized the possibility of having an infinite score here if you have all your catches at the line of scrimmage.  The point here was to measure YAC in a meaningful way for guys who catch the ball short, but then have to turn and make something out of it.  So I'm going to rethink this category and come up with something better to make the negatives and infinities make sense.

For right now I'll just calculate YAC per thrown at

Odoms          9
C. Brown       8
Hemingway   6.66
Savoy            6
Grady (19)    3.25
Mathews       2.33
Koger            0.33
Cox, Shaw, Webb 0.0

So what's it all mean? Well obviously Hemingway had an awesome day.  Not only did he get the big catches for touchdowns, but his other touches went for conversions, and he even showed a lot of YAC ability.  Koger was also excellent, although he has almost no YAC which is what you expect from a larger player, but has a shiny 1.00 for Redzone TD's efficiency.

Most of the other players didn't get enough looks for their numbers to be meaningful. But there was one notable exception.  Mathews had a pretty rough day.  He only gained positive yardage on two plays and often looked as if he wasn't fully engaged in the play.  He did an excellent job on punt returns by simply HOLDING ON TO THE GODDAMN BALL.  But he had the demeanor of a guy who is very frustrated.  He didn't look happy or excited on the sidelines.  Maybe I'm just reading too much into it.  On the two catches he made, he got good YAC and converted, but the number of incompletes in his direction brought that stat into negative territory. This is somewhat disappointing as he's our most experienced WR and seemed to have a talent for crossing patterns and deep in's or deep outs.  I hope things get turned around for him quickly.

Random Notes

• Will someone tell Mike Patrick to use the term "SOLD OUT" crowd.  Not "sell-out" crowd. I feel like he's insulting the stadium. 
• That Cheesney song fr(*&)(*^& sucks!  I like a lot of different kinds of music, but if it weren't for the mute button I'd probably have to shoot myself before the end of the season.
• After Tate threw the long TD, it looked like Sheridan was unhappy, and explaining something to him, and Tate was like "wut?"
• Boise should be ranked above BYU.  BYU beat a team on the road, but minus their best player.  Boise absolutely stomped oregon.  But they kept bogging down in the redzone
• USC will kill tOSU
• Watching Floyd and Woolfolk bite on the play action was pretty sickening on an otherwise awesome day
• TP is not a smart fellow.  If we had him last year we might have gotten 6 or 7 wins and made a bowl but I kind of feel like we dodged a bullet and I'm quite happy with the 2 Frosh we got and Devin Gardner coming in.
• Nice to see the crowd in support of RR
• The Big 10 went 10-1 and is well on its way to having 8 bowl eligible teams but ohio state is still making the conference look bad.
• Florida didn't beat the spread.  Wow, that Urban Meyer is a terrible coach. (joking)
• USC's barkley stealing the spotlight from forcier reminds me of adrian peterson doing the same to mike hart.
• The next game is the biggest game of the season! (so far) ND looks like a decent team this year. If we win we could be looking at 8+ wins. If we lose, we're going to struggle to get 6.  I hope we win by a small enough amount that Weis doesn't get fired.
• Actually I take that back.  I hope we win by 38-0  AGAIN.