Wolverine In Exile

With play concluded and nothing to do except wait for the BCS tomorrow, here's your Big Ten Bowl Outlook, with two weeks to play.

First, the standings (ordered by projected conference finish)

TEAM, W-L / ConfW-L; Games remaining, Proj Record

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin, 9-1 / 5-1; @Mich, NW, 11-1 / 7-1 (Higher BCS than Mich St , OSU)

Ohio St, 9-1 / 5-1; @Iowa, MICH, 11-1 / 7-1

Mich St, 9-1 / 5-1; PUR, @ Penn St, 11-1 / 7-1

Iowa, 7-3 / 4-2; OSU, @Minn, 8-4 / 5-3

Penn St, 6-4, 3-3; IND, MICHST, 7-5 / 4-4

Illinois, 5-5 / 3-4; NW, @ Fresno St (?!?!), 6-6 / 4-4

Michigan, 7-3 / 3-3; WISC, @ OSU, 7-5 / 3-5

Northwestern, 7-3 / 3-3; @Ill, @Wis, 7-5 / 3-5

Purdue, 4-6 / 2-4; @MichSt, IND, 5-7, 3-5

Minnesota, 2-9 / 1-6; Bye, IOWA, 2-10 / 1-7

Indiana, 4-6 / 0-6; PENNST, @ Purdue, 4-8 / 0-8

 

So first we eliminate the non-bowl eligible (Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana), leaving us with 8 bowl eligible teams. I'm now going to rank them by  overall record instead of conference record:

1) Wisconsin (highest BCS), 11-1

2) Ohio  St (2nd highest BCS), 11-1

3) Michigan St, 11-1

4) Iowa, 8-4

5-t) Penn St  7-5

    Michigan 7-5

    Northwestern 7-5

8) Illinois 6-6

Now it looks like the Big Ten is going to get two BCS teams if the form holds as expected, those should be Wisconsin (Rose Bowl) and Ohio St (at-large). The Big Ten affiliated non-BCS bowls are:

Capital One Bowl (Orlando, 1 Jan)

Outback Bowl (Tampa, 1 Jan)

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, 1 Jan)

Insight Bowl (Tempe, 28 Dec)

Texas Bowl (Houston, 29 Dec)

TicketCity Bowl (Dallas, 1 Jan)

Little Cesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, 26 Dec)

The non-BCS bowls go in order of selection, with the only requirement being you can't choose a team more than 2-losses different than the team you're "supposed" to choose in that slot (i.e. the Capital One Bowl with the #2 Big Ten selection can't choose a team with more than 2 losses more than Michigan St, the highest Big ten team not in the BCS). With that being said, here's my bowl projections:

 

Capital One Bowl (Orlando, 1 Jan): Mich St v. SEC #2 (right now LSU or SEC champ game runner-up)

Outback Bowl (Tampa, 1 Jan): Iowa v. SEC #3 (Fla / So Car / Alabama)

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, 1 Jan): Between Mich & Penn St... I'm going to say Mich since they're a more attractive team at this point. Michigan v. SEC #6 (Ark/Ken/MissSt)

Insight Bowl (Tempe, 28 Dec): Penn St v. Big 12 #4 (Mizzou or Baylor)

Texas Bowl (Houston, 29 Dec): Northwestern v. Big 12 #6 (Tex A&M or Texas)

TicketCity Bowl (Dallas, 1 Jan): Illinois v. Conf USA #1 (UCF)

Little Cesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, 26 Dec): Big Ten will vacate this slot since with two Big Ten BCS teams, we won't have enough to fill this

Observations:

• I really think Michigan is a lock over any other 7-5 team in the Big Ten, and MAYBE, just maybe we're more attractive than a 8-4 Iowa to a bowl committee, meaning we're looking at a range of Outback through Texas Bowl. Unless we upset both Wisconsin and Ohio St, and Michigan St drops one game the last two weeks, we're probably out of the Capital One Bowl. Even with two upsets, we're probably still looking at best at the Outback Bowl in a pick em vs. Iowa since Mich St would get a Rose Bowl and Wisconsin would get a BCS at-large. Realistically, I'd say pack our bags for Jacksonville
• Northwestern with Persa out for the year isn't a real attractive team anymore. Illinois could jump them in picking if Illinois can manage to win one out of two against a Persa-less NW or Fresno St.
• I don't think there's going to be a big consternation over the bowl selections this  year. If the chalk holds as I predict, everything should shake out realtively according to plan with the possible Michigan / Penn St swap for the Gator / Insight Bowl
• A 6-6 Illinois team could still get a New Years Day game. wow.
• If somehow the Big Ten only gets one  BCS team, the only change I tihnk would be is everybody moves down one slot.... except I don't know how but I have this feeling that Jerry Jones would LOVE to have Michigan in his Dallas bowl game on 1 Jan, especially with alumni coming back in two years for the '12 game vs Alabama. can he personally vouch for 10,000 Northwestern tickets at the Insight Bowl? :)
• EDIT:: The Dallas bowl game (TicketCity Bowl) is not the Jerryworld Spectacular, but a bowl game being staged at the ACTUAL Cotton Bowl. So yeah, no Jerry Jones conspiracy theories...

New BCS standings are in. First the standings, the BCS slots, and the auto-qualifiers (AQ)

1 Oregon
2 Auburn
3 TCU
4 Boise State
5 LSU
6 Stanford
7 Wisconsin
8 Nebraska
9 Ohio State
10 Oklahoma State

The BCS Slots (as of wk 11, standings in conference used for AQ):

BCS Champ #1: Oregon

BCS Champ #2: Auburn

ACC: Va Tech

Big East: Pitt

Big Ten: Mich St

Big 12: Nebraska

Pac 10: vacant due to Ore

SEC: vacant due to Aub

At-large 1: TCU (non AQ in Top 12, BCS rule 3.A)

At-large 2

 

- Now we start the sorting process for the at-large and replacement slots:

• First the BCS Championship game is set up:

Oregon v Auburn

• Then the AQ's get slotted in their games per contracts:

Rose Bowl (Big 10 v Pac 10): Mich St (from tiebreakers w other Big Ten 1 loss teams) v. VACANT

Orange Bowl (ACC v at-large): Va Tech v. VACANT

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 v at-large): Nebraska v. VACANT

Sugar Bowl (SEC v. at-large): VACANT v VACANT

• Now the fun begins. With Oregon and Auburn going to the BCS championship, the Rose and Sugar have to select replacement teams.

- Because of an adjustment to the BCS process, the Rose is contracturally obligated to take the non-AQ conference auto qualifer, so Michigan St, have fun getting your teeth kicked in by TCU.

- Sugar gets to pick a replacement for Auburn, and you know damn well they'll take an SEC team. At this point, it's LSU, a no-brainer.

• This now gives us:

BCS Champ: Oregon v Auburn

Rose Bowl: Mich St v. TCU

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. VACANT

Fiesta Bowl: Neb vs. VACANT

Orange Bowl: Va Tech vs. VACANT

• Now the rest of the bowls fill out their games. this year, the order is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta

The rest of the teams remaining for consideration (in order of AQ, then BCS at-large standing): Pitt, Boise St (#4), Stanford (#6), Wiscy (#7), tOSU (#9), Ok St (#10)

Sugar gets first pick. They already have LSU and the Sugar likes a big name with a big travel base, so WISCONSIN come on down. This eliminates tOSU since the Big Ten can't have more than 2 teams.

Orange is next and needs a little pop to a potential Va Tech matchup. Pitt's not going here since a Va Tech v Pitt matchup would be ratings disaster. Their choice is essentially an undefeated Boise St, a Pac-10 runner up Stanford, maybe with only 1-loss, and an OkSt who is always helped by the T-Boone Pickens Effect. This is probably the biggest toss-up. Stanford while having a decent "name" program, is not known for traveling well, and Boise St is, well Boise St.  They'll travel well for their small fan base, and may attract some TV numbers. I say the BCS goes to protect its own and the Orange chooses STANFORD here.

Finally, the Fiesta's job is easy. They have to take Pitt as the Big East AQ.

• So the games are set:

BCS Champ: Oregon v Auburn

Rose Bowl: Mich St v TCU

Orange Bowl: Va Tech v Stanford

Sugar Bowl: LSU v Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska v Pitt

 

Now the analysis:

• Wow does Boise get screwed. After I looked at the matchups and BCS rules more stringently this week, I find it hard for Boise to get in a BCS game since they'll be compared most likely against tOSU, Wisconsin, and Stanford for an at-large slot. And sorry, I think from a number of standpoints, they lose comparisons to all those three in terms of bowl selection criteria
• Next up in the screwed department would be tOSU if the Sugar takes Wiscy over them. I coud definately see the Sugar taking tOSU over Wiscy as well, but Sparty makes the whole thing suck for those two unless Sparty drops a game the last three weeks. Then both Wiscy and tOSU get BCS slots.
• TCU is locked into the Rose Bowl against a Big Ten team. And really, the only place to go for them is up. If Auburn or Oregon slip, and LSU not going to play in the SEC championship game, TCU retroactively becomes The Hat's biggest fan by knocking off Bama and their potential jumper scenario. TCU will be in the national championship game if Oregon loses and maybe if Auburn loses but Oregon stays undefeated. That win against  Utah was no joke, son.
• Auburn is probably in the best spot. If they lose to Alabama, they still have the SEC championship to impress and get the #2 BCS rating in front of TCU. If they lose in the SEC championship game, they still might have enough to hold onto the #2 slot.
• Armageddon scenario: If Oregon and Auburn lose (preferably Oregon to Oregon St and Auburn in the SEC championship game), God help us, but the voters will probably leapfrog TCU into the #1 slot and Boise St into the #2 slot. At that point, it will be up to the computers. I don't think LSU's going to have enough juice especially by not playing in the SEC championship, Auburn's been skating on sketchy computer numbers up to this point (although an Alabama win will help, a 3-loss Alabama will not look as good to the CPU's as a 2-loss Alabama), and I don't think enough people are impressed wwith Nebraska or Wisconsin to vote them ahead enough to make up the difference in the computer part of the BCS rankings. Now if Tom Osborne managed to cry a few tears onto the BCS computer......

After next week, I'll add a Big Ten Bowl Outlook diary as well as the conference standings come into more focus....

UPDATE (11/08): Two points. (1) Mich St is in there now b/c they have an extra Big Ten win. At the end if Wiscy, Mich St, and tOSU all end up with one conference loss, then Wiscy and tOSU will likely both be the Big Ten reps in the BCS games since they'll both be higher BCS ranked than Mich St. If tOSU or Wiscy loses and Mich St wins out, they'll benefit from being higher in the polls due to the other B10 team losing, will probably improve their BCS standing from the current #11, but may not be as sexy for the Sugar Bowl against LSU as an undefeated Boise St (Mich St wins the one-on-one comparison with Wiscy meaning Sparty'd get the auto Rose Bowl slot and Wiscy would be an at-large BCS team; Mich St loses the one-on-one to tOSU since tOSU will be the higher BCS team, leaving Mich St to compete as a BCS at-large possibility). So the Big Ten might actually lose a BCS slot if Wiscy loses. (2) As a poster in the comments pointed out, Boise St did already play Va Tech this year, likely ruling them out from the Orange Bowl, leaving Boise's only BCS hopes at: Rose if TCU gets in the national championship (if Auburn loses), Fiesta as an at-large vs Nebraska, or Sugar as an at-large against a likely SEC team.

Picking up from last year, I'll be starting a weekly analysis on the BCS standings since we're getting close to the time it actually starts to matter and the variables get reduced. First, your updated BCS standings:

1) Oregon

2) Auburn

3) TCU

4) Boise St

5) Utah

6) Alabama

 

So what  this means is:

- Oregon and Auburn / Alabama likely control their destiny. Oregon more so, since they have no real roadblocks on the way to a #1 or #2 BCS ranking. Auburn may jump them at the end if they beat Bama and win the SEC, but the Ducks got a slot if they keep winning.

- I still think Alabama will jump all the non-AQ teams if they beat Auburn and win the SEC champ game. Voting pools still make a huge portion of the polls and I have a hard time thinking more "traditional" college football pollsters will not move Bama up considerably with those two wins, and the computers are going to give Bama a big time trampoline-like bounce with potential wins against Auburn and an SEC champ game opponent.

- The non-AQ is playing out as I thought a couple weeks ago. For a slot opposite Oregon or Auburn/Bama should one of the two slip up, it's the TCU/Utah winner, not Boise St. the computers and voters are more impressed with TCU's quality wins at this point over Boise St, and the game against Utah is going to far outweigh any bump in computers's Boise's going to get from either Hawaii or Nevada.

- I also think though, that you're looking at 2 non-AQ's in BCS at large berths. So with that, we're looking at (10 bids overall):

Auto-bids

BCS CHAMP 1: Oregon

BCS CHAMP 2: Auburn

ACC: Va Tech/ FSU winner (likely only 1 team)

BIG EAST: Pittsburgh? (Do we have to?)

BIG TEN: Wisconsin or Iowa or tOSU at this point, but more thoughts below

SEC: see above

BIG 12: Nebraska / Mizzou / Oklahoma winner (likely 1 team)

PAC 10: see above

Fill- in for Auburn's SEC (champ slot replacement rules): (1 loss) Alabama

Fill-in for Oregon's PAC-10 (champ slot replacment rules): Stanford / Arizona

At-Large 1: TCU / Utah winner

At-Large 2: Boise St

 

Games:

BCS Championship: Oregon v Auburn

Rose Bowl: Stanford/Arizona v. Wisconsin/Iowa/tOSU

Orange Bowl: Va Tech / FSU v.  TCU

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Pitt

Fiesta Bowl: Okl/Neb/Mizz vs. Boise St

 

Big Ten: At this point, I think the Big Ten is likely the conference to get most screwed. Lets say Alabama beats Auburn, I still think both the SEC champ game winner AND a 1-loss Auburn get BCS bids. Sugar Bowl's going to take an SEC team if at all humanly possible to replace Auburn's slot. The fill in for Oregon's slot is probably going to be the Pac-10 runner up so the Rose Boel gets it Big Ten v Pac-10 matchup. Both an undefeated TCU/Utah and an undefeated Boise St are probably for to autoqualify for a BCS at-large slot taking one of the second conference slots from the Big Ten. The second team from the Iowa/Wiscy/tOSU triumverate are going to have to hope for a loss by either (TCU and Utah) or Boise St.

Outlook:

- Big games left really are Alabama v Auburn and Boise St vs. Hawaii or Boise v Nevada. TCU v Utah is big terms of who gets a  loss, but really, the winner of that should be able to win out and secure themselves a BCS at large slot. Th eonly real drama about TCU . v Utah is that if Utah wins, then Boise probably has the top non-AQ slot from voters, Utah has the top non-AQ slot from computers, and the difference in BCS standings will be miniscule.  

- The Iron Bowl is really shaping up as football armageddon 2010. Should Auburn win, they're either the BCS champ rep or the SEC at-large depending on the result of the SEC champ game, but really, Alabama's probably out  at that point. If Bama wins, then we are on the verge of absolute chaos. Bama wins the SEC championship, they're probably in the BCS champ with a whole lot of wailing/gnashing of teeth jumping over non-AQ's & 1-loss Oklahoma/Neb. A loss by Bama in the SEC championship and we probably have the first  non-AQ in the championship game, most likely TCU, not Boise.

Well now that we got the nagging question of whether we'll play in Detroit, Tempe, San Antonio, or DC out of the way (damn freshman being freshman-y), let's look objectively, without sorrow at the BCS&Big Ten bowl pictures...

First the BCS
*****************

Well I think this weekend cleared a lot up. What we know:

1) Fla/Ala winner and Tex are in the nat'l championship game as long as Tex keeps winning. Even a loss by Fla or Ala before the SEC championship game really won't matter as much as the SEC championship game is now essentially a play-in game for the nat'l title slot as either the #1 or #2 seed.

2) Provided TCU keeps winning, 3 of the 4 at-large slots are locked up. Fla/Ala loser, TCU, and a 2nd Big Ten team between Iowa and Penn St. Big East is likely only going to get one team (except for a scenario I'll outline in a second) and that will be the winner of Pitt/Cincy.

3) If Texas slips, it will become a voter free-for-all as to who gets the #2 slot in the title game. Right now, while TCU is ahead of Cincy in the BCS standings and human polls, a big time showing by Cincy against Pitt may be enough to vault Cincy ahead of TCU in human polls and the computer margin narrows to the point where Cincy goes ahead. But I also believe that we are staring right down the barrel of a TCU in the nat'l title game with one Nebraska upset of Texas.

So with that here's the predictions (special citation to Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com whose interview on Rivals radio on Friday reinforced some of my ideas) Reminder, only the Top 14 in BCS standings are eligible for selection as an at-large, and only two teams from a conference can be selected:

BCS Nat'l Championship: Fla v. Texas
Rose: tOSU v. Oregon (all but locked in)
Fiesta: Ok St v. TCU
Sugar: Alabama v. Penn St
Orange: Ga Tech v. Cincy

So here's how the selections went for me:
- Fla beats Ala to get the title slot.
- Texas beats Neb to get the title slot.
- Rose gets Big Ten Champ (tOSU) & Pac-10 champ (assumed Oregon, but could be Oregon St if they win next week); Orange gets ACC champ (Ga Tech)
- Sugar gets first at-large selection to replace Florida and they take slam dunk Alabama
- Fiesta gets next selection to replace Texas. While they could take TCU, I think they'll actually take a 2-loss Big 12 Ok St 
- Now we go to the actual "at-large order", and this year its Orange, Fiesta, Sugar. Orange gets first pick and they take undefeated Cincinnati out of the Big East
- Fiesta is next, and they get either TCU (who has to be picked) or an attractive 2nd Big Ten team. I'm going to guess this time they'll take TCU who being from nearer Texas and the populous Dallas/FtWorth area will be a better travel option.
- Sugar gets the remainder, and they take Penn St for a salavating Alabama v. JoePa matchup that will be the 2nd best TV game of the BCS series. Sorry Iowa, but PennSt travels better and has better cache in terms of TV ratings.

Other thoughts:
- Pitt with an upset of Cincy will get the Big East bid, but a loss probably means they knock themselves out of an at large bid unless both TCU and Boise lose, making a potential Fiesta Bowl of Pitt and Penn St a possibility
- A Texas loss will throw the whole system into chaos. Neb would get the Fiesta Bowl bid leaving Texas as an at-large selection to the Sugar or Orange. My guess would be that the Orange would prefer Tex over Cincy/TCU leftover (whoever doesn't get the title game birth), but the Sugar would love them some Alabama-Texas action. That would  mean then that Ok St wuld get knocked out BCS contention (2-team conference rule) leaving Penn St to glide into either Fiesta against Neb or Orange against Ga Tech.
- Clemson is still alive but they have to beat Ga Tech, and in that case, just swap out GT with Clemson in the predictions.

So with that settled, let's go to the Big Ten.

It's pretty much settled that the Big Ten will get a 2nd BCS team this year (either Penn St or Iowa-- my money's on Penn St as a better TV draw and hence more attractive). Big Ten also only has 7 teams bowl eligible, and with 2 BCS teams, will be left out of one bowl game.

Hence, the predictions:
Rose: tOSU
BCS At-LArge: Penn St
Capitol One Bowl (BT2): Iowa
Outback (BT3): Wisconsin
ChampsSports (BT4): Northwestern
Alamo (BT5): Mich St
Insight (BT6): Minnesota
Pizza Pizza (BT7): no qualifiers

About the only shenanigans here would be the Alamo&Insight swapping teams and really it's not going to make much of a difference. Not too much controversy either... NW / Wiscy is a pick 'em from resume standpoints, but Wiscy travels much much better so the Outback is an easy pick for them.

The biggest intrigue for Big Ten bowls, is actually regarding a non-Big 10 team. A 6-6 ND would get shut out of all their bowl tie-ins leaving them to search for a bowl game. The open games in terms of conferences not having enough teams to fill slots are:
- Pizza Pizza Bowl (BT, Detroit)
- Eagle Bank Bowl (ACC, Wash DC)
- Humanitarian Bowl (MWC, Boise)
- GMAC (ACC, Mobile)

Humanitarian Bowl probably is going to want a Western team just for travel reasons (6-6 Kansas if they win this weekend?), and barring that are going to have to fight tooth/nail for another Eastern time zone team to come out that way (hello MAC!). GMAC may be out if Duke beats Wake Forest and qualifies at 6-6 (this may be sketchy-- would a 6 win team with a conference tie-in get in over a 7-win at-large team? I don't know the rules on that). Pizza Pizza and Eagle Bank seem to be the likely choices for a 6-6 ND. The wrinkle is that a 6-win team can't go if there are 7 win teams available, so according to Mandel at si.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/11/23/bowl.projections/index.html) , Mid Tenn St and No Ill have seven, a Bowl Green win would get them to 7 wins, and if a third Sun Belt team qualifies (LA-Lafayette or LA-Monroe) with 7-wins, ND may not go bowling AT ALL.

Wow, what would be worse, us not going bowling after a 4-0 start roster limitations noted, or 5-Star Charlie's OMG AWESOME recruiting classes not going bowling at all in year 5??

This weekend's slate of action started to clear things up on the Big Ten's Bowl outlook. First the conclusions:

BCS bid: tOSU has it, going to be the Rose Bowl.

2nd BCS bid?
Maybe. Penn St, Iowa, and Wiscy all need to win out and hope that either TCU/Boise St/Ok St slips up.

Who's bowl eligible?
tOSU, Iowa, Penn St, Wiscy, SpartyNO, NW, lolGeauxphers

Who's eliminated?
Indiana, Illinois, Purdue

On the Bubble?
US.

Scenarios:

This really hinges on if we get the 2nd BCS bowl bid. Money issues aside, I'd almost like the Big Ten to NOT get a 2nd BCS team so that we get some favorable matchups in the other bowl games. An extra Big 10 team in the BCS really stacks the decks against us in our other affiliation games.

1) If Big 10 get a 2nd BCS Bid&we're eligible:
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
BCS At-Large: Penn St (arguments sake) v. 'Bama
Capitol One Bowl: Iowa v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Wiscy v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: SpartyNO v. (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: Mich v. ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: NW v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: Minn v. MAC Champ

2) If Big 10 gets a 2ns BCS Bid & we're not eligible:
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
BCS At-Large: Penn St (arguments sake) v. 'Bama
Capitol One Bowl: Iowa v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Wiscy v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: SpartyNO v. Big 12 #4/5 (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: NW v.  ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: Minn v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: unfilled.

3) If Big 10 does not get a 2nd BCS Bis & we're eligible
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
Capitol One Bowl: Penn St v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Iowa v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: Wiscy v. (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: Sparty NO v.  ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: NW v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: Michigan v. MAC Champ
Looking for a Bowl Game: Minnesota

4) If Big 10 does not get a 2ns BCS Bid & we're not eligible
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
Capitol One Bowl: Penn St v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Iowa v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: Wiscy v. (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: Sparty NO v.  ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: NW v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: Minnesota v. MAC Champ

Looking at the matchups, I would predict for each scenario the Big Ten team would be favored in:
Scenario 1: 3/8 games (Wiscy, NW, Minn)
Scenario 2: 2/8 games, maybe-- Minn v Iowa St would be a pick 'em (Wiscy, Minn)
Scenario 3: 5/8 games if Minnesota lands in a favorable matchup (Iowa, Wiscy, NW, Mich, Minn)
Scenario 4: 4/7 games (Iowa, Wiscy, NW, Minn)

So based on the criteria of good for the Big 10, I would say Scenario 3, 8 teams in (including us) and probably 5 games we'd be favored in. Compare that to Doomsday Scenario 2 where we're looking at 1-2 favorites of all our matchups.

Question: In Scenario 1, why do you have Michigan in the Champs Sports Bowl, but in Scenario 3 we're in the Pizza Pizza? What gives?

Answer: I'm assuming that in Scenario 1, the bowl pickers are going to go primarily based on record except that Champs will opt for the sexier Michigan v Miami game rather than NW v Miami. I think we beat Minnesota and NW in terms of bowl game sexy for sure, even if NW has 1-2 more wins than us. However, in Scenario 3, a MSU v Miami game might be just as attractive as us v 'Canes. I think its a toss up between us/MSU in the Champs Sports and the other in the Pizza Pizza Bowl. Regardless, I think the Insight takes the potentially 8 win NW team over either 6-win Michigan based team, and Pizza Pizza would be happier than hell to have either big name in-state school inthe bowl game.

There's still a lot of flexibility and some upsets this weekend (MSU over Penn St, NW over Wiscy, Minn over Iowa) will have potential to drastically change this up. The big question is whether we're going to get bowl eligible. If we do, I think a bowl eligible Michigan just coming off a HUGE rivalry win against the Big 10's BCS rep will get us a bump up the bowl pecking order in conference, probably more than we deserve.

EDIT:: entry updated with BCS ranking information. Not too much to change.

Now with the BCS rankings, we run down the possible BCS setup...

10 BCS slots, 6 autobids, 4 at large

Autobids (assumptions listed in parenthesis, * for clinched)


ACC: Ga Tech (win ACC championship)
Big 10: OSU*
Big 12: Texas (win Big 12 championship, stay undefeated)
Big East: Cincinnati (finish undefeated)
Pac-10: Toss-up (discussed below)
SEC: Florida (winout)

So the only team that's in for sure right now is tOSU and they're going to the Rose Bowl against the Pac-10's only representative (Oregon, USC or Stanford). More on the Pac-10 later....

At-Large Slots (my guesses)
-------------------------------
1) Alabama (loss to Fla only blemish)
2) TCU (undefeated, stays in top 8 of BCS standings for autobid)
3) ???
4) ???

The Florida / Alabama loser is going to get the #1 at-large slot. TCU at 12-0 is a lock for a 2nd at-large and maybe a nat'l title shot jumping Cincy. Now it gets confusing, let's list the rest of the eligible teams for at-large slots from the Top 18 in the BCS standings (LSU not counted since 2 SEC teams are already in)...

Contenders: 12-0 Boise St, 10-2 Ok St, 10-2 Pitt, 10-2 Iowa, 10-2 Penn St, 9-3 VaTech, 10-2 Wisconsin, 9-3 Stanford, 9-3 USC, 9-3 Miami (YTM)

If Boise St stays in the Top 8 and undefeated, with their competition being a flurry of not just 1-loss teams, but 2-loss teams, I don't see how they can be left out at this point. This is the "Year of the Little Guy" in college football and I see the Powers That Be formalizing that with a Boise St at-large bid. For the fourth slot, I think it's  a matter of the specific bowl game again.... Per the BCS rules, with Florida and Texas in the championship, the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls  get first pick from at-large teams. Bama in the Sugar is a slam dunk as a SEC replacement for Florida. I think Fiesta takes TCU with their Dallas/ Ft Worth area fan base. Orange Bowl is next. I think they take an undefeated Cincy. So then we have:

BCS Championship:  Florida  v Texas
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Oregon / Arizona
Fiesta Bowl: TCU v ???
Orange Bowl: Ga Tech v. Cincy
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. ???

So we now have two at-large slots. Fiesta Bowl would get the first pick over Sugar since they're closest to the natl champ game in date, and I think the lure of a psuedo-natl chmp game between TCU and Boise is going to be too good to pass up, especially since Boise traveled REAL good last time they were in a BCS game. So Boise St in the Fiesta.

Sugar wants a big name team from a power conference to matchup against  Bama, and to me the choice is either  the Fightin T-Boones from OK St or a 2-loss Big Ten runner up, like Penn St/Wiscy/Iowa who travels REALLY well. I'll say Penn St over Iowa since Iowa will still be back-up QB'ing and Wiscy isn't as attractive as a JoePa led team.

So we are between a 2-loss Penn St and a 2-loss OK St. I think T-Boone greases a couple palms and gets OK St in against Bama, especially with a perceived "down" Big Ten. Giving us:

MY BEST GUESS
-------------------------------
BCS Championship:  Florida  v Texas
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Oregon / Arizona
Fiesta Bowl: TCU v Boise St (psuedo natl champ)
Orange Bowl: Ga Tech v. Cincy
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. OK St

If the Orange took lets say a 2-loss Penn St for the better TV and travel cache JoePa led Penn St brings over Cincy, I think we are then looking at the Fiesta taking Cincy for a TCU v Cincy matchup, and the Sugar, left with a Boise St v OK St v Miami (YTM) choice, may opt for a Bama v Miami (or OK St if t-Boone again starts giving out wind farm seed grants to BCS officials) matchup leaving Boise St outside looking in.

Lots of stuff still can happen. Wiscy and Penn St are playing for a BCS bid and OK St may sew one up if they can beat OU. Boise St is going to have to lay on the style points. Pitt I just don't know about.. I just don't think the Wannestache has enough pull yet to get a BCS bid over Penn St or even an undefeated Boise, so they're only hope is probably a win against Cincy.