Waaaaaaaaaaaay to early, there's a lot of football to be played, but overall I like your breakdown. I would like to point out that you forgot to mention Boise St already played and beat Viriginia Tech, so there's NO WAY they would match-up again. You correctly chose Stanford over Boise, but feel you forgot to mention this as it adds more weight to your decision
Wolv In Ex's BCS Standing update
New BCS standings are in. First the standings, the BCS slots, and the auto-qualifiers (AQ)
4 Boise State
9 Ohio State
10 Oklahoma State
The BCS Slots (as of wk 11, standings in conference used for AQ):
BCS Champ #1: Oregon
BCS Champ #2: Auburn
ACC: Va Tech
Big East: Pitt
Big Ten: Mich St
Big 12: Nebraska
Pac 10: vacant due to Ore
SEC: vacant due to Aub
At-large 1: TCU (non AQ in Top 12, BCS rule 3.A)
- Now we start the sorting process for the at-large and replacement slots:
- First the BCS Championship game is set up:
Oregon v Auburn
- Then the AQ's get slotted in their games per contracts:
Rose Bowl (Big 10 v Pac 10): Mich St (from tiebreakers w other Big Ten 1 loss teams) v. VACANT
Orange Bowl (ACC v at-large): Va Tech v. VACANT
Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 v at-large): Nebraska v. VACANT
Sugar Bowl (SEC v. at-large): VACANT v VACANT
- Now the fun begins. With Oregon and Auburn going to the BCS championship, the Rose and Sugar have to select replacement teams.
- Because of an adjustment to the BCS process, the Rose is contracturally obligated to take the non-AQ conference auto qualifer, so Michigan St, have fun getting your teeth kicked in by TCU.
- Sugar gets to pick a replacement for Auburn, and you know damn well they'll take an SEC team. At this point, it's LSU, a no-brainer.
- This now gives us:
BCS Champ: Oregon v Auburn
Rose Bowl: Mich St v. TCU
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. VACANT
Fiesta Bowl: Neb vs. VACANT
Orange Bowl: Va Tech vs. VACANT
- Now the rest of the bowls fill out their games. this year, the order is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta
The rest of the teams remaining for consideration (in order of AQ, then BCS at-large standing): Pitt, Boise St (#4), Stanford (#6), Wiscy (#7), tOSU (#9), Ok St (#10)
Sugar gets first pick. They already have LSU and the Sugar likes a big name with a big travel base, so WISCONSIN come on down. This eliminates tOSU since the Big Ten can't have more than 2 teams.
Orange is next and needs a little pop to a potential Va Tech matchup. Pitt's not going here since a Va Tech v Pitt matchup would be ratings disaster. Their choice is essentially an undefeated Boise St, a Pac-10 runner up Stanford, maybe with only 1-loss, and an OkSt who is always helped by the T-Boone Pickens Effect. This is probably the biggest toss-up. Stanford while having a decent "name" program, is not known for traveling well, and Boise St is, well Boise St. They'll travel well for their small fan base, and may attract some TV numbers. I say the BCS goes to protect its own and the Orange chooses STANFORD here.
Finally, the Fiesta's job is easy. They have to take Pitt as the Big East AQ.
- So the games are set:
BCS Champ: Oregon v Auburn
Rose Bowl: Mich St v TCU
Orange Bowl: Va Tech v Stanford
Sugar Bowl: LSU v Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska v Pitt
Now the analysis:
- Wow does Boise get screwed. After I looked at the matchups and BCS rules more stringently this week, I find it hard for Boise to get in a BCS game since they'll be compared most likely against tOSU, Wisconsin, and Stanford for an at-large slot. And sorry, I think from a number of standpoints, they lose comparisons to all those three in terms of bowl selection criteria
- Next up in the screwed department would be tOSU if the Sugar takes Wiscy over them. I coud definately see the Sugar taking tOSU over Wiscy as well, but Sparty makes the whole thing suck for those two unless Sparty drops a game the last three weeks. Then both Wiscy and tOSU get BCS slots.
- TCU is locked into the Rose Bowl against a Big Ten team. And really, the only place to go for them is up. If Auburn or Oregon slip, and LSU not going to play in the SEC championship game, TCU retroactively becomes The Hat's biggest fan by knocking off Bama and their potential jumper scenario. TCU will be in the national championship game if Oregon loses and maybe if Auburn loses but Oregon stays undefeated. That win against Utah was no joke, son.
- Auburn is probably in the best spot. If they lose to Alabama, they still have the SEC championship to impress and get the #2 BCS rating in front of TCU. If they lose in the SEC championship game, they still might have enough to hold onto the #2 slot.
- Armageddon scenario: If Oregon and Auburn lose (preferably Oregon to Oregon St and Auburn in the SEC championship game), God help us, but the voters will probably leapfrog TCU into the #1 slot and Boise St into the #2 slot. At that point, it will be up to the computers. I don't think LSU's going to have enough juice especially by not playing in the SEC championship, Auburn's been skating on sketchy computer numbers up to this point (although an Alabama win will help, a 3-loss Alabama will not look as good to the CPU's as a 2-loss Alabama), and I don't think enough people are impressed wwith Nebraska or Wisconsin to vote them ahead enough to make up the difference in the computer part of the BCS rankings. Now if Tom Osborne managed to cry a few tears onto the BCS computer......
After next week, I'll add a Big Ten Bowl Outlook diary as well as the conference standings come into more focus....
UPDATE (11/08): Two points. (1) Mich St is in there now b/c they have an extra Big Ten win. At the end if Wiscy, Mich St, and tOSU all end up with one conference loss, then Wiscy and tOSU will likely both be the Big Ten reps in the BCS games since they'll both be higher BCS ranked than Mich St. If tOSU or Wiscy loses and Mich St wins out, they'll benefit from being higher in the polls due to the other B10 team losing, will probably improve their BCS standing from the current #11, but may not be as sexy for the Sugar Bowl against LSU as an undefeated Boise St (Mich St wins the one-on-one comparison with Wiscy meaning Sparty'd get the auto Rose Bowl slot and Wiscy would be an at-large BCS team; Mich St loses the one-on-one to tOSU since tOSU will be the higher BCS team, leaving Mich St to compete as a BCS at-large possibility). So the Big Ten might actually lose a BCS slot if Wiscy loses. (2) As a poster in the comments pointed out, Boise St did already play Va Tech this year, likely ruling them out from the Orange Bowl, leaving Boise's only BCS hopes at: Rose if TCU gets in the national championship (if Auburn loses), Fiesta as an at-large vs Nebraska, or Sugar as an at-large against a likely SEC team.
that the Wolverines will knock both Wiscy and Ohio St out of the running.
I hate to throw a wrench in your scenario and maybe there was an assumption that I missed but from my understanding a three way tie for the Big Ten championship is decided based on BCS ranking. This would make Wisconsin the Big Ten champion if the season ended today.
It's based off current standings and MSU hasn't had its off week yet so they have a half game on OSU and Wisc and Iowa at 5-1 compared to the 4-1 conference records of the other 3
see the update in the post above to see my analysis regarding projecting the Big Ten standings...
beats Iowa then Wisc and OSU will go to the BCS and sparty can enjoy their one breakthrough year landing them in the capital one bowl
So what happens after we beat tOSU? ;)
I get incredibly drunk and wear no pants until the next day I absolutely must go into work.
Nevermind. Your lack of a semicolon messed up my argument.
ESPN "experts" have Boise State in either the Rose Bowl against Michigan State or Sugar Bowl against Auburn(!?) (That prediction has Oregon vs. TCU in the National Championship...)
**thinking Auburn will lose to Alabama maybe?
This scenario is exactly why the Big East should not be an automatic qualifier. Pitt getting to go to a BCS bowl game over an undefeated Boise is an outrage.
the BCS always seems to royally screw a team or two every year. Through no fault of it's own an undefeated Boise State is gonna get thrown under the Big East bus. (and if it's not Boise State it's gonna be somebody because the Big East and ACC are not good this year)
Seeing Va Tech and Pitt playing in BCS games, while Boise gets left out would be really unfortunate! I will always be in favor of an 8 team playoff. The top 8 BCS teams get in. They could even call the various playoff games different bowls (i.e. NC is Rose Bowl, etc.). Then everybody else still fills in the less prestigious bowl games just like usual. That way the bowl sponsors still get their games, not much gets interupted, and you end up with 7 high-quality bowl games (4,2,1) instead of just 4. The first round probably take place a little earlier than usual, second round on New Year's Day and NC still happens 1 week later.
Maybe I am missing something in your analysis, but I looked over BCS rules and I'm not sure why you have Boise getting "screwed". They would have to be included in the BCS games because they, like TCU, will be in the top 12 of the BCS standings.
It is included in your analysis for TCU (rule 3.A), so why wouldn't that apply to the Broncos?
Boise would be the WAC champions and inside the top 12 of the BCS standings and therefor would gain an automatic bid.
The BCS selection criteria state that only ONE non-AQ conference team can get an auto at-large slot, unless the first non-AQ conference teamis in the national championship. So Boise St couls finish #4 in the BCS standings behind Oregon, Auburn, and TCU and not be in the BCS, b/c at that point TCU gets the non-AQ conference autobid, leaving Boise to be considered as an at-large team possible with no absolutes. They could be selected as an at-large, but they'd be in competition with a 2nd SEC team (at this point LSU, but could be Auburn if Auburn loses in the SEC championship), a 2nd Big Ten team (likely a 1-loss tOSU), a 2nd Pac-10 team (a 1-loss Stanford), or a 2-loss Big 12 runner up. Unless TCU get a national title shot, Boise won't get an invite over those possible competitors for a BCS at-large.
didn't realize your username was the shortened part in the title of the diary, so I skimmed it thinking (excitedly) that we were mentioned somewhere in the BCS updates (not as a contender, obviously, but maybe as a sidenote for the huge scoring game we just had, or for next year predictions)
Maybe a piece of advice (word to the wise from one less wise, as it were): just put "BCS Standing Update" or put the word "My" before the title. It says your name right under it anyway on the sidebar. Or put WIE's or something. I'm sure it's not a huge deal, since I'm probably the only idiot who was confused.
After all this idiocy on my part, I actually took time to read the diary in more depth, and I must applaud your breakdown. I agree wholeheartedly with almost everything in it. Anything I don't agree with wholeheartedly, I agree with probably three-quarters-heartedly. I look forward to more. Here's hoping we demolish in a win-out and somehow get mentioned in your final update!
This is a great topic and post, and definitely the analysis guessing where people go is the best part. The fact that the season isn't over makes it more interesting, and actually is one big reason the BCS isn't a cut and dried playoff system, media needs drama to attract eyeballs.
Since the sidebar includes Wolverine in Exile's name in addition to the article title, I definitely encourage removing your name from the title of your article. I vote for MGoShoe option two without the ugly acronym (WIE).
Mostly because I can't stand any shortening of Wolverine at all. It's one of the key things about our team that separates us from the SEC. We are NOT the Wolves, or the Wolvs, or anything but the Wolverine's.
I mean for Christ's sake, how hard is it to say "bulldog" versus "dogs". And don't get me started on the 'Canes. I mean what the hell does a trash eating seagull have to do with an aid to walking? And what do either of them have to do with Miami, or, uh, ok wait nevermind I figured it out...
what was I commenting about again?
Oh yeah, Wolverine in Exile, please keep up the good work, however you title it.
If we could knock off Wiscy or OSU, that probably puts MSU in a BCS game. if we knock off both Wiscy & tOSU, we put Mich St in the Rose Bowl and probably Boise St in as an at-large team, Likley Sugar vs LSU or Fiesta vs Nebraska.
If we beat Wisconsin, do you think Mark D'Antonio would be cheering for us then, knowing that a victory by us over tOSU sends Mich St to the rose Bowl for the first time in 20+ years? I actually kind of enjoy that mental image of The Warden having to wrench his guts out or purposefully throw the Penn St game so our game against tOSU doesn't have meaning to his team :)
actually involves Michigan State losing out, so really he will be crying into his cornflakes (without sugar, because he has a black and cold heart oh my god I didn't mean it that way, I just realized what it sounds like I meant but I totally didn't) either way
I honestly (biasedly) think they will lose another game, somehow. So there's that hope.
I thought they had changed the rules so that you had to win your conference championship to play in the NC game? Therefore, Auburn cannot be #2 after losing that game, no?
Am I wrong?? Certainly would not be the first time.
I just looked at the official rules for BCS Nat'l Champ selection (http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597) and both rules pertaining to BCS NCG selection are pretty clear:
1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game."
"Team selection procedures
The bowls will select their participants from two pools: (1) automatic qualifiers, all of which must be selected, and, (2) at-large teams, if fewer than 10 teams qualify automatically. The following sequence will be used when establishing pairings:
1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings will be placed in the National Championship Game ("NCG")."
Nowhere in these two statements is anything about being a conference champion.
LSU won't be in the NCG. The only way for that to happen is if Auburn loses both of their last two games and LSU goes to the SEC CG. I have to imagine that if Auburn were to lose 1 and then lose the CG, most of their votes would go to TCU, not LSU considering that LSU lost to Auburn.
BTW, you say that OSU is 1-1 against B10 contenders. They are actually 0-1 because they haven't played Iowa or MSU. I can't wait until we get that B10 CG, because MSU's team is overrated and I think they would get blown out by OSU if they had to play.
It's a shame that Pitt gets to play in a BCS game and Boise doesn't. I think what would really shake the foundation of the BCS is if Auburn loses to Bama, but still wins the SEC. TCU should go to the NCG. MSU vs. BSU. Nebraska vs. Wisconsin. VaTech vs. Stanford. Auburn vs. Pitt. TCU, BSU, Stanford, and Auburn win. BOOM! BCS implosion.
I'm not sold on picking Stanford over Boise State. The Orange Bowl needs to sell seats. Stanford does not travel remotely well and certainly not cross country. I actually think it would be a toss up on which school travels better, despite the size and conference different. Plus, i'm also not buying the "protecting their own". The Orange Bowl only cares about the Orange Bowl and couldn't care who plays in it as long as they sell all their seats and get high ratings.
Plus, I think a rematch with Virginia Tech will get both bases fired up because there is definitely chatter than Boise State got lucky in facing them early in the year (and I guess so did JMU) before they really meshed together and started playing well.
I think they have shown in the past that they don't like to have rematches in bowl games.