Rush Offense vs Wisconsin

Michigan Off: +7, 2nd nationally, 1st Big Ten

Wisconsin Def: +1, 38th, 5th

Key Players

D Robinson: +6 rushing, 1st in Big Ten, 2nd nationally

S Hopkins: +0, 7th in Big Ten

M Shaw: +0, 10th

V Smith: +0, 11th

Last week’s mud game was several points worse on the ground than any game for Michigan to date. Wisconsin’s rush defense has been good but their best performance came in the one game they lost. Will be interesting to see where Michigan’s ground game is at now with last week’s performance relatively meaningless.

Prediction: +6 Michigan – Michigan should be able to get some yards on the ground but needs to be good enough to bring safeties down and open up the passing game. Also, a big play on the ground would be nice, it’s been a while.

Pass Offense vs Wisconsin

Michigan Off: +5, 14th, 1st

Wisconsin Def: +1, 55th, 6th

Key Players

D Robinson: +5 passing, 5th

R Roundtree: +6, 4th

J Hemingway: +6, 7th

D Stonum: +3, 18th

Other than blowing the doors off the Buckeyes, Wisconsin has been vulnerable to the pass during Big Ten play. The question is whether or not Denard (or Tate) can put together the consistent play necessary to take advantage.

Prediction: +4 and two get there Michigan will likely need Big Passing Plays – Interceptions to be at least +2

Rush Defense vs Wisconsin

Michigan Def: –3, 105th, 10th

Wisconsin Off: +3, 16th, 3rd

J White: +1, 3rd

J Clay: +1, 5th

M Ball: +0, 8th

After an underwhelming start in non-conference play, the Badger ground game has been consistently strong in Big Ten play. The ground game has been the backbone of the #2 rated red zone offense (92% of possible points scored) in the country. For reference Michigan is about average at 75%. Michigan will need to get off the field before the red zone because Wisconsin has not been a team susceptible to bend but don’t break defense.

Prediction: Wisconsin +6. Michigan is going to give up some plays but the key will be finding a way to get three good plays in a row to get off the field.

Pass Defense vs Wisconsin

Michigan Def: –3, 106th, 11th

Wisconsin Off: +3, 23rd, 4th

Key Players

S Tolzien: +4, 7th

N Toon: +3, 16th

I don’t exactly know what to say about this matchup, we are probably doomed despite the nice number from last week. Hopefully it’s not as bad as last year.

Prediction: Wisconsin +6 and hopefully no worse.

Special Teams vs Wisconsin

Michigan: –2, 108th, 10th

Wisconsin: +2, 48th, 5th

Kicking: Big advantage Wisconsin, top 10 versus bottom 10

Michigan kicks: Slight advantage Wisconsin, Michigan is bad, Wisconsin below average

Wisconsin kicks: Slight advantage Wisconsin, Michigan is bad, Wisconsin below average

Michigan punts: Slight advantage Michigan, Michigan is really good, Wisconsin above average

Wisconsin punts: Push, both are bad

Over half of Wisconsin’s advantage comes from their kicker versus our disaster.

Predictions almost certain to cost you money if taken seriously

If Wisconsin brings their A game Michigan is done and Michigan isn’t good enough to play poorly and win.

This chart is both teams game scores ranked from best to worst. Wisconsin’s ceiling has been much higher and Michigan’s bad has been worse, but in the middle, these two teams aren’t that far apart.

In Madison our chances would be slim, but with Senior Day and home field it’s nearly a coin flip.

Wisconsin 38 Michigan 37

Other picks:

Iowa 26 Ohio St 24 – Iowa paves the way for Pasadena Sparty

Michigan St 28 Purdue 10 – Unfortunately Purdue doesn’t have the talent

Illinois 38 Northwestern 24 - [Name Redacted] gets a Wrigley reprieve

Penn St 31 Indiana 10 – Nothing like last week, but Indiana gets blown out at “home”