On the flip of my coin, UM wins but it is close like your pick. I do like the Iowa over tOSU pick. tOSU has had some trouble on the road and I think Iowa has a ton to prove after last weeks debacle at Northwestern.
Rush Offense vs Wisconsin
Michigan Off: +7, 2nd nationally, 1st Big Ten
Wisconsin Def: +1, 38th, 5th
D Robinson: +6 rushing, 1st in Big Ten, 2nd nationally
S Hopkins: +0, 7th in Big Ten
M Shaw: +0, 10th
V Smith: +0, 11th
Last week’s mud game was several points worse on the ground than any game for Michigan to date. Wisconsin’s rush defense has been good but their best performance came in the one game they lost. Will be interesting to see where Michigan’s ground game is at now with last week’s performance relatively meaningless.
Prediction: +6 Michigan – Michigan should be able to get some yards on the ground but needs to be good enough to bring safeties down and open up the passing game. Also, a big play on the ground would be nice, it’s been a while.
Pass Offense vs Wisconsin
Michigan Off: +5, 14th, 1st
Wisconsin Def: +1, 55th, 6th
D Robinson: +5 passing, 5th
R Roundtree: +6, 4th
J Hemingway: +6, 7th
D Stonum: +3, 18th
Other than blowing the doors off the Buckeyes, Wisconsin has been vulnerable to the pass during Big Ten play. The question is whether or not Denard (or Tate) can put together the consistent play necessary to take advantage.
Prediction: +4 and two get there Michigan will likely need Big Passing Plays – Interceptions to be at least +2
Rush Defense vs Wisconsin
Michigan Def: –3, 105th, 10th
Wisconsin Off: +3, 16th, 3rd
J White: +1, 3rd
J Clay: +1, 5th
M Ball: +0, 8th
After an underwhelming start in non-conference play, the Badger ground game has been consistently strong in Big Ten play. The ground game has been the backbone of the #2 rated red zone offense (92% of possible points scored) in the country. For reference Michigan is about average at 75%. Michigan will need to get off the field before the red zone because Wisconsin has not been a team susceptible to bend but don’t break defense.
Prediction: Wisconsin +6. Michigan is going to give up some plays but the key will be finding a way to get three good plays in a row to get off the field.
Pass Defense vs Wisconsin
Michigan Def: –3, 106th, 11th
Wisconsin Off: +3, 23rd, 4th
S Tolzien: +4, 7th
N Toon: +3, 16th
I don’t exactly know what to say about this matchup, we are probably doomed despite the nice number from last week. Hopefully it’s not as bad as last year.
Prediction: Wisconsin +6 and hopefully no worse.
Special Teams vs Wisconsin
Michigan: –2, 108th, 10th
Wisconsin: +2, 48th, 5th
Kicking: Big advantage Wisconsin, top 10 versus bottom 10
Michigan kicks: Slight advantage Wisconsin, Michigan is bad, Wisconsin below average
Wisconsin kicks: Slight advantage Wisconsin, Michigan is bad, Wisconsin below average
Michigan punts: Slight advantage Michigan, Michigan is really good, Wisconsin above average
Wisconsin punts: Push, both are bad
Over half of Wisconsin’s advantage comes from their kicker versus our disaster.
Predictions almost certain to cost you money if taken seriously
If Wisconsin brings their A game Michigan is done and Michigan isn’t good enough to play poorly and win.
This chart is both teams game scores ranked from best to worst. Wisconsin’s ceiling has been much higher and Michigan’s bad has been worse, but in the middle, these two teams aren’t that far apart.
In Madison our chances would be slim, but with Senior Day and home field it’s nearly a coin flip.
Wisconsin 38 Michigan 37
Iowa 26 Ohio St 24 – Iowa paves the way for Pasadena Sparty
Michigan St 28 Purdue 10 – Unfortunately Purdue doesn’t have the talent
Illinois 38 Northwestern 24 - [Name Redacted] gets a Wrigley reprieve
Penn St 31 Indiana 10 – Nothing like last week, but Indiana gets blown out at “home”
I think most of us would take a 1 pt loss at this point...
Your analysis led me to believe we'd be staring at a 7 - 10 pt loss, but I'll take the optimism...
would be crushing. That would show a tremendous amount of improvement over last year. Wiscy absolutely handled us. I think if we can get up early and limit the turnovers (HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL!) we can really get the badgers out of their game plan and have a good shot. If we get behind like against sparty and iowa I don't see us having the horses to keep up.
Unless they're wrong... I've got some college buddies coming over from Wisconsin for this weekend's game and I will be very pleased if the game is close! I'll have fun either way, but if a win is improbable, a close game will be great.
Anything can happen if things are close. We have much more experience in close games so maybe that will be our Hard Edge.
We haven't really played a great game so far this season. When our offense has been hot, our defense has been horrendous (or at least bad). When our D has shown up, our offense had an off day. Probably the only game where we played well on both sides of the ball was vs UConn. I can see us really getting up for this one, with the team being fired up after two wins in a row. If we could beat them two years ago, I don't see why we can't beat them now if we bring our A-game.
Iowa 26 Ohio St 24 – Iowa paves the way for Pasadena Sparty
If Wisconsin wins and OSU loses, Sparty still has to survive in Happy Valley...
As for the coin flip, I hope it flips in our favor and we get the 38.
The problem is, there's no reason to expect all of a sudden we won't. This team is what it is: maddeningly turnover-prone.
Bucky 44 UM 29
We've turned it over 10 times in the last 2 weeks and won both games. The week before we had no turnovers and lost miserably.
This game is so complex and unpredictable, it's like you have to watch each Saturday just to figure out what will happen!!
If our O doesn't put the D in a hole, we win by 3. If not, lose by 2 TD's. I like the first option better.
Michigan 38 Wisconsin 35
we all hope they stay competitive tomorrow. Does anyone else out there feel like, for some "can't put your finger on it" reason, they we have a better shot winning against OSU ?
No, not me. Unfortunately, with a young team I think we lose by 20 in Columbus but I would love to be wrong about that.
FWIW, I think UM has a 20-30% chance of winning tomorrow.
will beat Illinois. I like Fitzgerald and Wrigley is more of their backyard.
Their qb is done with a ruptured achilles.
There are a lot more Illini alum in the city of Chicago than NWU. They might have more tickets alloted since its their "home" game.
I think UM will keep it close, but I'm worried that if the team is forced to throw the ball there will be turnovers, and once Bucky gets running downhill they can be tough to stop. Having Clay out will help, as will being at home and having guys like Mouton and Martin back in the lineup.
I actually think tOSU will beat Iowa - this Iowa team has been regressing a bit since the incredible start last year, and I just don't see them being able to slow down the Buckeyes when they inevitably run an offense that makes sense for their personnel. It will be close, but Pryor and co. are eyeballing the Rose Bowl and won't stumble even on the road.
Definitely. I don't think Iowa is that great to start with and OSU's offense is balanced enough to give Iowa's D some trouble. Not many teams match up size with Iowa and OSU is definitely one of them. I just can't see Iowa pulling this one out, BUT I won't mind if they do.
maize & blue goggles and a "what the hell, let's go" outlook.
Those graphs of Wiscy's offense vs our defense are scary, and they certainly understate the efficacy of the Wisconsin offense last week.
12 offensive possessions. 10 TDs. 2 FGs. Zero drives without points. (And a pick six to push the score over 80). How in hell do you do better than that? That's like me as a little kid in the backyard against an imaginary opponent. (I always scored.) Does Wiscy even dress a punter?
I'm channelling Les Miles for the secret to victory tomorrow.
their punter will be shank-tastic from no game-situation punts for two weeks. I'm just hoping they come in over-confident and Michigan takes advantage of all opportunities.
There goes my weekend.
I don't know what any of this means, but I think I like it.
Here is a video i made for this game. I'm pretty pumped, and if we could beat them two years ago when with threet and mcguffie we can win tomorrow with shoelace!!
dmarco, you got UMG'ed.
Great work as always. I found that last chart very interesting. It looks like we will need to play well to win, but I like our chances at home.
My biased prediction:
great thing ever! It said that of all the categories for us to beat Wisconsin in tomorrow, it will not be QB or the run game. But...wait for it...Special Teams. Have they seen our field goal kicker? Hoping they are right about the ST and wrong about the rest. Go Blue!