Wisconsin in numbers

As a numbers geek, I have spent a couple years trying to develop a system to go beyond the box score to analyze performance.  I have analyzed hundreds of box scores and play by plays to asign a value to each play based on down, distance and line of scrimmage.  Each combination of the three is given an expected value.  

For instance, a 1st and 10 at the 20 will ultimately give you 1.49 pts each time. Obviously you are never going to score 1.49 point, but you could look at it as about 15 points (a little over 2 TDs) for evey 10 times the situation occurs.  Based on this, each play changes the expected points for the possession.  A turnover or failed 3rd or 4th down play results in the expected value dropping to 0.  In the case of a turnover, a penalty is added based on the resulting opponent field position in comparison to where the opponent would have started had there been an average punt.  A long interception with no return, little penalty, field position similar to a punt.  A long fumble/int return is a greated penalty because the offense not only loses their expected points, they give the opponent exceptional field position.

A couple notes on scores. Passing games see a lot more range in scores than running games. + is good for the offense, - is good for the defense.  Receivers have generally positive scores because only completions count towards their score.  Obviously Michigan's poor screen game against Wisconsin does not fit this trend.  

Based purely on starting field position, if these two team were average the score should have been Wisconsin 41 Michigan 22.  Obviously a huge effort from the defense to hold Wisconsin to 25 pts and an a great second half for the offense, to put some drives together.

Without further ado, here are the scores for the week.   

Offense Overall: -2.4 pts

Running Game: +1.3

Minor: 2 carries, +2.9

Threet:9 carries, +0.8

Grady: 5 carries,  +0.7

Brown: 1 carry, -0.7

Odoms: 1 carry, -0.9

McGuffie!: 15 carries: -1.5

Passing Game:  -5.2

Matthews: 4 catches, +4.3

Koger: 1 catch, +4.0

Minor: 1 catch, +0.6

Odoms: 2 catches, -0.2

McGuffie: 1 catch, -0.5

Brown: 3 catches, -1.3

Penalties (Offense): +1.5

For: 1 penalty, +1.9

Against: 1 penalty, -0.4

Defense Overall: -24.4

Run defense: -7.2

Other: 13 carries, +4.9

Evridge: 5 carries, -6.1

Hill: 22 carries, -6.0

Pass defense: -18.2

Gilreath: 5 catches, +6.0

Jefferson: 4 catches, -1.0

Penalties (defense): +1.0

For: 4 penalties, -2.3

Against: 2 penalties, +3.3