I have not read any other place explain the BCS 3rd team exemption the way you're interpreting it. Note it says only two unless "the two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings." For that rule to come into effect, the No 1 and 2 teams in the title game would both have to NOT be the conference champion. If LSU wins out, they'd be the conference champion and so a third team cannot come in. It WOULD come into play if the SEC West Champion (LSU, as of right now) lost the SEC title game to Georgia; in that scenario, Georgia would get in as the conference champion, and if LSU and Bama were still 1 and 2 in the rankings, they'd go to the title game. Still possible, not probable.
WInEx's BCS Stan-- AHHH It's CHAOS!!
UPDATE:: Changed projected to real BCS standings and corrected analysis after talking heads on ESPN clarified the 3 SEC possibility... it is as most people have written in the comments, a conference can only get 3 if BCS1 and BCS2 are not conference champs... aka the LSU v Ala even though one of the two lost to Georgia in the SEC championship game scenario...
So when last I left you (two weeks ago), LSU had just defeated Alabama in the most underwhelming 1 v 2 matchup in modern times, Boise St was crusing towards a BCS at-large again but likely to get snubbed out of the national championship game, and the B1G was a muddled mess.....
Flash forward to today, and we have utter complete and no-shenanigans chaos erupting in BCS land. Only one more step friends until we have SEC on SEC violence due to one of their beloved conference teams being shut out from a chance at the national championship... or will there be?
First, the official BCS standings as of tonight, via ESPN:
Official BCS Standings: 1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Arkansas, 4. Oklahoma State, 5. Va Tech, 6. Stanford, 7. Boise St, 8. Houston, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Oregon, 11. Kansas St, 12. So Carolina, 13. Georgia, 14. MSU, 15. Michigan, 16. Wisconsin, 17. Clemson, 18. Baylor, 19. Penn St, 20. TCU, 21. Nebraska, 22. Notre Dame, 23. Georgia Tech, 24. Auburn, 25. Texas.
Note:: No Big East teams in Top 25, meaning Houston will be a mandatory pick should they win their conference and stay in the Top 16. The BCS selection rules say that a non-AQ gets a mandatory BCS at-large slot if they win their conference and:
A) are in the top 12
B) Are in the top 16 and are higher than a AQ conference champion (i.e. the Big East sucks rule)
Houston's good anyway since they're in the Top 12-- non-AQ's in the top 12 don't have the "we're better than the Big East" clause. If Houston should stumble, TCU is going to have some work to do since they'll have to get in the Top 16 to get a mandatory non-AQ slot.
- The SEC is poised to blow the 2 teams in the BCS from a single conference rule out the window... the BCS bylaws state:
"No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings ."
This means that should the SEC get two teams in the NCG, they wuold have the possibility of getting a third in the BCS games as an at-large. As we'll see, this is possible.
- Michigan is poised well to get in a BCS game as an at-large.
- The Big12 and ACC crapped their pants and liklely lost their shot at both conferences getting a 2nd team in.
- The biggest benficiaries of the two weeks of chaos are Michigan & Houston.
- The Big East still sucks.
Now the projections.. we'll use the projected standings as our basis. The teams that are GUARANTEED a slot per the BCS rules are LSU (BCS1), Alabama (BCS2), Ok St (B12 chmp), MSU/PSU/Wis (B1G chmp), VaTech (ACC chmp), Louisville (BE chmp per ESPN standings), Houston (non-AQ in top 12 & conf chmp-- Boise is NOT MWC chmp so even though they're higher than Houston, Houston qualifies) :
NCG: LSU v. Alabama
Fiesta: Ok St (B12 champ) v. Stanford (at-large)
Sugar: Houston (non-AQ mandatory) v. Michigan (at-large)
Orange: Va Tech (ACC champ) vs. Lousiville (BE chmp)
Rose: Mich St / Wiscy / Penn St (B1G champ) v. Oregon (Pac12 chmp)
- LSU v. Alabama... I'm going say for simplicity sake, they both win out meaning LSU is the SEC champ, and 'Bama is the #2 team in the BCS.
- The Sugar gets one pick to replace LSU.... they take Houston who as commenter Mat points out, is a 40k member school just hours away from New Orleans.
- Then the regular slotting for 2012 takes over (fiesta, Sugar, Orange).. Fiesta takes a 1-loss Stanford with potential Heisman winner Andrew Luck in a regional play, the Sugar goes again and takes a 10-win Michigan team with three quality wins in a row and a fan base itching to get back to the big time. Orange takes the last at-large and gets Lousiville by default.
Who got screwed:
- Arkansas, a 2-loss SEC team who only lost to the #1 & #2 teams and is in the top 5 of the BCS can't go to a BCS game b/c of LSU & Alabama.
- Oklahoma, Boise St, Clemson... these teams were poised to take an at-large from Michigan.
- 2nd B1G team not named Michigan... Sparty could be in the unenviable spot that even though they beat Michigan in the regular season and got to the conf championship game, if they get spanked by, say Wisconsin on a revenge tour game, they do not look good as an at-large Michigan on awin streak against high profile programs (no, I'm not talking about you, Zooker)
Remaining items for Chaos:
- LSU v Arkansas: this has the most potential for upsetting the NCG, but in reality if Ark does beat LSU, all that means is that the one that emerges from the Ark/LSU/Ala triumverate to the SEC champ game goes to the NCG if they win and the 2-nd team in that threesome likely gets the 2 seed in the BCS standings. The SEC tiebreakers are so screwy (go read http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2011/11/20/2574943/bcs-rankings-standings-projections-predictions-week-13 for detailed explanations), it's going to a lot of backroom talking between voters to see who gets that little bump in BCS standings.
- Iron Bowl: Auburn could throw an even bigger monkey wrench in this if they somehow take down their rivals.... Bama loses and Arkansas wins, its chaos.
- SEC championship: If Georgia somehow beats the SEC West champ, no matter who it is, the entire system crashes into the goddamn mountain- aka the other conference commissioners might band together to change the system so one conference doesn't get 3 slots. This is the 3 SEC team scenario... let's say:
** LSU wins over Arkansas huge and 'Bama mops the floor with Auburn. Going into the SEC championship game, LSU and 'Bama are the undisputed #1 & #2 BCS teams by a wide margin in human polls and computers.
** LSU loses a controversial game in the SEC championship game. Think Spartan Bob type screwing in the Georgia Dome to a Georgia team. Finebaum show is packed for weeks with "Louie from Natchodoches" claiming LSU is still the #1 team in the country and it was a conspiracy by the state of Georgia to screw LSU. Legend and Jim from Crestwood counter with calls taunting LSU fans for losing that game and jumping LSU in the polls because 'Bama has 47 national titles (35 awarded from the Montgomery Free Press & Girl Scout Newsletter).
** Ok St loses to Oklahoma in Bedlam, eliminating the only real 1-loss contender from jumping 'Bama or LSU.
** LSU and Bama in some order come out #1 & #2 in BCS standings after all this, with Georgia the SEC champ. This means the SEC champ gets the automatic Sugar Bowl bid (UGa), LSU & Bama are in the NCG, and like Emeril saying 'BAM' you have 3 SEC teams in BCS bowl games, all played in New Orleans.
** If this happens, the variation to the BCS slots from above would see either Michigan or Houston getting shipped to the Fiesta and the other in the Sugar with Stanford booted out. Since Fiesta goes first with no team that the Sugar has to replace in the NCG, Fiesta picks Michigan over Stanford, and Houston goes to NOLa to play Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Even without my maize & blue glasses, I think Michigan is more attractive than Stanford.
- Houston losing: If Houston drops a game, then it will be dogfight between Stanford, a 2nd B12 team, and maybe Va Tech if Clemson upsets Va Tech in the ACC championship for the open at-large slot vacated by Houston. TCU would need help to jump 4 BCS slots to get to #16 and clinch the BigEast sucks clause spot.
Per the sage words from Doc Saturday... rooting interest in the BCS? Chaos... always Chaos.
I don't think we interpret the three teams from the same conference exception the same way. You project Arkansas, LSU, Bama getting bids, but I think you can only get a third team if both Bama and LSU are non champions. I only see this happening if Georgia wins the SEC championship yet LSU and Bama are still 1-2.
Since it's not clearly defined, I'm wondering what's going to happen... I have to think that the Sugar would do all in their power to get a SEC team in there if 2 SEC teams get in the NCG (see: T Pryor suspension, last year's Sugar Bowl). If that doesn't happen, then Michigan v. Oklahoma, Clemson, Stanford in teh SUgar.
It's really clear. A conference can get three teams in if #1 and #2 aren't the conference champion simply because the conference champ has to get in.
Realistically, Arkansas needs to beat LSU in a very close game followed by a 'Bama loss to Georgia in the SEC title game. Then, LSU and Arkansas need all the other top teams to lose and force voters to set up a rematch of a game that happened only two weeks ago. It's really unlikely.
Also, the Sugar would get first at-large pick in a dual SEC title game. This year, the Fiesta Bowl would follow, the Orange would pick third, and the Sugar would presumably take the Big East champ with the last pick.
UGA win out and beat LSU in SEC Championship game with Bama and LSU still ranked #1 and #2 in BCS standing.
The only way that a conference can get 3 teams is if all 3 are autobids (i.e., the #1 team, the #2 team and the conference champion). There is no reasonable way that could get Alabama, LSU and Arkansas all into the BCS.
You are also right about the At Large selection order. The OP is wrong on both counts.
Are complicated. The SEC west bid could come down to tie-breakers if Arkansas beat LSU...based on BCS standings which are unknown at this time.
"If Arkansas and Alabama win, forcing a three-way tie for first place in the West, the division's representative in the SEC championship game Dec. 3 would be determined by the head-to-head result between the top two SEC teams in the BCS standings""If Alabama and LSU are the top two, LSU goes to the SEC title game. If it's Arkansas and LSU, then Arkansas would advance. If it's Alabama and Arkansas, then Alabama goes."
In most scenarios the SEC only gets 2 teams in but there are a few where, if Georgia wins the SEC title game, there could be two SEC teams in the championship game and 3 in the BCS.
The only way that you get 3 SEC teams into the BCS is for LSU to beat Arkansas and then lose to Georgia. You might have Alabama & LSU as #1 and #2, and you would have Georgia with the automatic Sugar Bowl invitation.
There is no way I can see to get Arkansas as the third team. That would involve Arkansas beating LSU and then winning the SEC Championship, but if that happened Arkansas would certainly be #2 or #1 in the BCS standings, instead of LSU (or Alabama).
but let's just say, hypothetically, that Arkansas beats LSU in a close one and Alabama gets the conference title game due to tiebreakers...then loses to Georgia.
Who goes to the title game then? I'd bet a rematch of Arkansas-LSU.
but what if Arkansas stomps LSU by 30 points (unlikely I know, but humor me) and Georgia wins the SEC title game over Alabama...what then? Arkansas has to make the title game right? But who do they play? OKie State probably, but let's say they lost to OU. Who then? 2 loss Alabama? An LSU team that just go pounded? Boise? Houston? Stanford?
There would be real chaos then.
It says 3 from one conference only if 2 NON-CHAMPIONS are in the title game. In other words, if arkansas wins the sec and lsu/alabama are still somehow #1/#2 then they get 3 in the bcs. Otherwise they only get two.
In order for three teams from the SEC to go to the BCS, you would need LSU to lose the conference championship game to Georgia but for Alabama and LSU to still both go to the National Championship Game. What Z said.
If Houston loses to Tulsa or Soutern Miss. Then TCU is likely to get the non AQ. All they have to is be in the top 16 and be ahead of the Big East champ.
Big East with the double whammie.
From the BCS selection procedures:
"No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings."
The SEC isn't going to get three teams in. Sure, its still plausible, but the chances are highly remote. The only way you can get 3 teams in is if #1 and #2 are in the same conference but neither actually win it.
LSU beats Arkansas then loses to Georgia. That's not likely, but it's very possible.
Even then, I'm not liking LSU's chances. They would have to fall only one spot while Stanford is sitting there looking good and Okla St and V Tech have chances to add wins against top 25 teams.
Man, I hope we get the Fiesta Bowl instead of the Sugar Bowl (not to get ahead of myself, of course). We could definitely beat anyone in the Big 12, and a BSC win in Hoke's first year would be huge. But Arkansas (or maybe even Alabama)? I wouldn't be as confident.
Also, I hope that MSU doesn't win the B1G, but if they do at least they will likely play Oregon. That has the potential for a MSU-Bama-esque beatdown.
Also, Phoenix > New Orleans
Sorry... absolutely not. Roommate is from Phoenix and we both livei n New Orleans.... this statement is 100% factually incorrect.
Phoenix > New Orleans in one very important aspect: altitude.
If LSU beats them, they're out.
Houston is close enough to New Orleans that they'll get selected ahead of Michigan. They don't have the name brand recognition, but it's a school of 40K in Texas. They'll travel well and draw attention as an undefeated team. I'd be shocked to see the Sugar Bowl pass over Houston. Not in favor of yet another SEC-B1G bowl game.
If Georgia wins the SEC title, I believe you'll see Georgia-Houston in the Sugar.
Michigan has been passed over as a BCS at-large pick one time. This was in 2002, when Iowa was selected over us after pantsing us at home (Michigan's worst home loss in 35 years). If we're in the top fourteen, we're going to the BCS like always.
But, over Michigan, I think the Sugar would take Houston and the Fiesta would take Stanford. There should still be room for Michigan if things play out as expected, but...things often don't.
Georgia winning the SEC could be bad for Michigan. So....go LSU?
Houston is such a big draw that they're about to be on FSN for the 4th time this year, and thats the best channel they've been on. The game could be put on by the UH Board of Trustees, and they're still picking Michigan over Houston.
But if Georgia does win the SEC, Houston will go. Thats because the Sugar would have the penultimate pick, and have to chose between UH and the Big East winner.
1) Georgia. If they beat LSU for the SEC title it probably puts LSU/Bama in the championship game. 3 SEC teams means only 2 remaining at-large bids. One of which is probably Houston, if not, then TCU.
2) Stanford. Only 1 loss and Luck probably gets them a bid, from the Fiesta at least
3) VaTech. If they lose in the ACC champ game to Clemson, they'd have 2 losses, but both to the same team.
4) Oklahoma State. If they lost to Oklahoma in a close one (i.e. OT), they'd be coming off 2 very narrow losses.
5) Boise. I know Houston gets a bid ahead of them, but is it possible that 1-loss Boise would get an open bid ahead of both TCU (if still outside the top 16) and Michigan? If Georgia gets in, Boise's case will be stronger.
I think Georgia winning the SEC is the only scenario that could realistically nudges Michigan out (since there should be room for both Stanford and UM if the SEC is kept to 2 teams), but I think VaTech and OK State would at least get consideration. I don't see any 3-loss B1G team getting the nod over Michigan, so I didn't mention them even though it's theoretically possible. MSU, PSU, Wisc could all make a case for themselves.
I believe that the purpose of the exemption is to make sure that all auto-bids are eligible for their respective games, e.g. if LSU is #1, Bama is #2, and Arkansas/Georgia wins the championship game they can't have any of those teams be ineligible by the 2-team limit. I don't think that it is meant to allow a third team if a conference is deemed to be better than the rest.
Boise State and Houston get BCS bid if both win out since both are ranked 6-7 in BCS bowl standing and one will get autobid based on non-AQ criteria.
1. SEC Champion
3. B1G Champion
4. Big 12 Champion
5. Pac-10 Champion
6. Big East Champion
7. ACC Champion
8. Boise State
10. Best available team?
If there are 3 SEC teams if LSU/Bama goes 1-2 and Arkansas/UGA is SEC champion, Michigan may get shut out BCS bid. Unlikely, but plausible scenario nonethless. Michigan must beat out Oklahoma, Clemson, and Stanford/Oregon for the remaining two BCS bowl bids.
I don't see any way that Boise State gets invited to a BCS Bowl. They aren't eligible for the automatic BCS bid because they are not a conference champion--Houston will get the non-BCS autobid if they win out. That means that Boise's only path to the BCS is an invitation to a BCS bowl game, and I don't see why any bowl would invite them ahead of Michigan or Stanford or Clemson.
Involves some, but not all, of the following to occur. Each one could help them:
- Georgia wins the SEC.
- Auburn beats Alabama
- Arkansas beats LSU
(The SEC sending only 1 representative is critical obviously, but they could still possibly send none if the above occurs.)
- Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
- Clemson or Virginia beat VaTech
- Tulsa beats Houston
- ND beats Stanford
and be certainly ahead of AQ conference champion. I think that would put them into the BCS bowl game.
That rule only applies to non-BCS conference champions. As a non-champion, they do not get an automatic BCS invitation.
there are 4 open spots. Houston's probably taking one of them, so let's hope the SEC doesn't take 2 of the remaining 3.
Most underwhelming 1 v. 2 matchup? I suppose you don't like defense?
Let's say that the higher ranked team wins every game from here on out. The Bowl Bids would look something like this--
BCS Championship: #1 LSU (13-0) v #2 Alabama (11-1)
Rose: Michigan State (11-2) v Oregon (11-2)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (11-1) v [pick 2]
Sugar: [pick 1] v [pick 3]
Orange: Virginia Tech (12-1) v [pick 4]
Pick #3 and Pick #4 will almost certainly be Houston (13-0) and the Big East Champion, whomever that might be. Stanford, at 11-1, would almost certainly be pick #1 or #2. The question is who gets the other at large selection: Michigan (10-2)? Kansas State (10-2)? Certainly not a 9-3 Oklahoma after losing to Oklahoma State, or a 10-3 Clemson after losing the ACC Championship game. I would think that Michigan would get picked first by the Sugar Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl would obviously take Stanford over Kansas State, and the Sugar would prefer Houston over the Big East winner. So we would have this, if the higher-ranked teams win all remaining games:
BCS Championship: #1 LSU (13-0) v #2 Alabama (11-1)
Rose: Michigan State (11-2) v Oregon (11-2)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (11-1) v Stanford (11-1)
Sugar: Michigan (10-2) v Houston (13-0)
Orange: Virginia Tech (12-1) v Big East Champion
a few weeks ago a coworker of mine was basically assuming that OkState, Clemson, Stanford, Boise St and LSU were all going undefeated because that's how ESPN was presenting the situation. i told him that there was still a lot of football to be played and it'll all shake out it in the end.
well, it's shaken out. it's shaken a little too much and frankly, there could still be more to come. at this point i don't even want to try to predict who will be in the national championship til all the conference championships are over.
all i want to question right now is HOW THE HELL IS TEXAS RANKED!?
they're 6-4 and lost 2 in a row! i wouldn't be surprised if they finish the season 6-6 with upcoming games against texas a&m (not that they're anything special) and baylor.
If Louisville does win next week @USF than they would win the Big East but with 5 loses they would be ineligible for the BCS. (is this correct?)
BCS is a fucking joke. How are Texas and Notre Dame ranked? Especially Texas! They are terrible and just lost this weekend.
Also, it's a sad day when LSU, Alabama and Arkansas are ranked 123. Those are 3 schools that are in states that don't have pro-football......err I mean LSU, Alabama and Arkansas are basically run like pro-teams. They all oversign and have three of the biggest scumbag coaches in the nation. All this arguing about who belongs in the BCS doesn't even matter. They'd rather have people argue about that then people actually discussing the fact that the BCS is all about money.
Humans are voting for Texas and Notre Dame and the computers agree. It's not unanimous, but there are 8 polls, so you're not going to get everyone agreeing.
This thing has to come down to SOME poll or algorithm to decide. The BCS is as good of a way as any for deciding things off-field.
As far as the original comment:
IMO, anyone who can't admit that an 8-3 Notre Dame team that soundly beat MSU doesn't deserve to be ranked #23 (it's only 23 fergodsakes), is showing their fanhood bias. (not that there's anything wrong with that).
As for Texas, they are 25 in the BCS, but humans are not voting for them. They got zero votes in the AP poll and ONE vote in the coaches poll (...Mack Brown?).
Can anyone explain why the computers love the Big 12 so much?
OK State @ 2
OK @ 6
Kansas State @ 5!!!
Texas (with 4 losses) dragged into the top 25 with basically no human support
ESPN's BXII blog says it's due to their 27-3 OOC record this season. Makes sense, but it's still pretty frustrating.
Agree that ND at 23 is fine. Us at 15 with Oklahoma at 9 is much worse, IMO.
Please, please, please let it be Michigan vs. Houston. I would love nothing more than to see Mattison's defense expose a team that has an offense with gaudy stats but little else. It would be so nice to be on the other end of that after the past few years.
And I also hate this, "Michigan can fill the seats an hotels" bullshit about why we could get into the BCS. I like to think that a) the players and coaches have earned it and b) the team is obviously far improved from the beginning of the season and is trending upwards. I understand that the BCS is a business and is about money, but I feel as if the media is ignoring the fact that Michigan might actually be a talented team.
How are Texas and Auburn ranked? Are there really no other 3-loss BCS teams?
the teams from bcs conferences that could make a case for being ahead of texas and auburn are virginia, florida state, rutgers, cincinnati, and west viriginia. everybody, humans and computers alike, realize that the big east blows so that leaves out rutgers, cincinnati and wvu. i think virginia has the best case for sneaking in having beaten georgia tech and florida state, but really nobody is too convincing.
outside of the bcs conferences, it doesn't get any better unless you are in favor of southern miss, arkansas st, northern illinois, ohio (not that ohio), tulsa, or byu (who lost to texas early in the year).
actually, iowa could make a case for being ahead of texas, but that too would be pretty weak.
there's still more games to be played so, whatever.
Houston plays Tulsa on Friday.
Tulsa is 8-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State.
One can argue that:
(1) They are the best team on Houston's schedule
(2) They would be undefeated right now if they swapped schedules with Houston
Don't sleep on that game. I wish it was on TV.
EDIT: Another random thought - on top of losing the way they did to us, be thankful to ND for that South Florida screw up. A two loss ND team with the potential to beat Stanford in it's last regular season game and leapfrog us would both annoy me and make me nervous.
Let the chips fall where they may after that.
That rule about a non-AQ getting in if they're in the top 16 and ahead of an AQ champion seems really odd to me. If the non-AQ team wouldn't have been picked on its own, then you have an undesirable team in the BCS. You're doubling up the undesirable teams, though, since no one wants to see a Big East type crappy conference champion.
Why do that?
So they can limit the complaining of the non-AQ schools. It doesn't look like you're willing to give the smaller schools a chance when you pass up a possibly 12-0 Houston team but take a 7-5 Big East champion