WInEx's BCS Stan-- AHHH It's CHAOS!!

I have not read any other place explain the BCS 3rd team exemption the way you're interpreting it. Note it says only two unless "the two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings." For  that rule to come into effect, the No 1 and 2 teams in the title game would both have to NOT be the conference champion. If LSU wins out, they'd be the conference champion and so a third team cannot come in. It WOULD come into play if the SEC West Champion (LSU, as of right now) lost the SEC title game to Georgia; in that scenario, Georgia would get in as the conference champion, and if LSU and Bama were still 1 and 2 in the rankings, they'd go to the title game. Still possible, not probable.

I don't think we interpret the three teams from the same conference exception the same way. You project Arkansas, LSU, Bama getting bids, but I think you can only get a third team if both Bama and LSU are non champions. I only see this happening if Georgia wins the SEC championship yet LSU and Bama are still 1-2.

It says 3 from one conference only if 2 NON-CHAMPIONS are in the title game. In other words, if arkansas wins the sec and lsu/alabama are still somehow #1/#2 then they get 3 in the bcs. Otherwise they only get two.

In order for three teams from the SEC to go to the BCS, you would need LSU to lose the conference championship game to Georgia but for Alabama and LSU to still both go to the National Championship Game. What Z said.

If Houston loses to Tulsa or Soutern Miss.  Then TCU is likely to get the non AQ.  All they have to is be in the top 16 and be ahead of the Big East champ.

Big East with the double whammie.

From the BCS selection procedures:

"No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings."

The SEC isn't going to get three teams in. Sure, its still plausible, but the chances are highly remote. The only way you can get 3 teams in is if #1 and #2 are in the same conference but neither actually win it.

Man, I hope we get the Fiesta Bowl instead of the Sugar Bowl (not to get ahead of myself, of course). We could definitely beat anyone in the Big 12, and a BSC win in Hoke's first year would be huge. But Arkansas (or maybe even Alabama)? I wouldn't be as confident. 

Also, I hope that MSU doesn't win the B1G, but if they do at least they will likely play Oregon. That has the potential for a MSU-Bama-esque beatdown.

If LSU beats them, they're out.

Houston is close enough to New Orleans that they'll get selected ahead of Michigan.  They don't have the name brand recognition, but it's a school of 40K in Texas.  They'll travel well and draw attention as an undefeated team.  I'd be shocked to see the Sugar Bowl pass over Houston.  Not in favor of yet another SEC-B1G bowl game.

If Georgia wins the SEC title, I believe you'll see Georgia-Houston in the Sugar.

1) Georgia.  If they beat LSU for the SEC title it probably puts LSU/Bama in the championship game.  3 SEC teams means only 2 remaining at-large bids. One of which is probably Houston, if not, then TCU.

2) Stanford.  Only 1 loss and Luck probably gets them a bid, from the Fiesta at least

3) VaTech.  If they lose in the ACC champ game to Clemson, they'd have 2 losses, but both to the same team. 

4) Oklahoma State.  If they lost to Oklahoma in a close one (i.e. OT), they'd be coming off 2 very narrow losses.

5) Boise.  I know Houston gets a bid ahead of them, but is it possible that 1-loss Boise would get an open bid ahead of both TCU (if still outside the top 16) and Michigan?  If Georgia gets in, Boise's case will be stronger.

I think Georgia winning the SEC is the only scenario that could realistically nudges Michigan out (since there should be room for both Stanford and UM if the SEC is kept to 2 teams), but I think VaTech and OK State would at least get consideration.  I don't see any 3-loss B1G team getting the nod over Michigan, so I didn't mention them even though it's theoretically possible. MSU, PSU, Wisc could all make a case for themselves.

I believe that the purpose of the exemption is to make sure that all auto-bids are eligible for their respective games, e.g. if LSU is #1, Bama is #2, and Arkansas/Georgia wins the championship game they can't have any of those teams be ineligible by the 2-team limit. I don't think that it is meant to allow a third team if a conference is deemed to be better than the rest.

Boise State and Houston get BCS bid if both win out since both are ranked 6-7 in BCS bowl standing and one will get autobid based on non-AQ criteria.

Scenario:

1. SEC Champion

2. SEC

3. B1G Champion

4. Big 12 Champion

5. Pac-10 Champion

6. Big East Champion

7. ACC Champion

8. Boise State

9. Houston

10. Best available team?

If there are 3 SEC teams if LSU/Bama goes 1-2 and Arkansas/UGA is SEC champion, Michigan may get shut out BCS bid. Unlikely, but plausible scenario nonethless.  Michigan must beat out Oklahoma, Clemson, and Stanford/Oregon for the remaining two BCS bowl bids.

Most underwhelming 1 v. 2 matchup? I suppose you don't like defense? 

Let's say that the higher ranked team wins every game from here on out.  The Bowl Bids would look something like this--

BCS Championship:  #1 LSU (13-0) v #2 Alabama (11-1)

Rose:  Michigan State (11-2) v Oregon (11-2)

Fiesta:  Oklahoma State (11-1) v [pick 2]

Sugar:  [pick 1] v [pick 3]

Orange:  Virginia Tech (12-1) v [pick 4]

Pick #3 and Pick #4 will almost certainly be Houston (13-0) and the Big East Champion, whomever that might be.  Stanford, at 11-1, would almost certainly be pick #1 or #2.  The question is who gets the other at large selection:  Michigan (10-2)?  Kansas State (10-2)?  Certainly not a 9-3 Oklahoma after losing to Oklahoma State, or a 10-3 Clemson after losing the ACC Championship game.  I would think that Michigan would get picked first by the Sugar Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl would obviously take Stanford over Kansas State, and the Sugar would prefer Houston over the Big East winner.  So we would have this, if the higher-ranked teams win all remaining games:

BCS Championship:  #1 LSU (13-0) v #2 Alabama (11-1)

Rose:  Michigan State (11-2) v Oregon (11-2)

Fiesta:  Oklahoma State (11-1) v Stanford (11-1)

Sugar:  Michigan (10-2) v Houston (13-0)

Orange:  Virginia Tech (12-1) v Big East Champion

a few weeks ago a coworker of mine was basically assuming that OkState, Clemson, Stanford, Boise St and LSU were all going undefeated because that's how ESPN was presenting the situation. i told him that there was still a lot of football to be played and it'll all shake out it in the end.

well, it's shaken out. it's shaken a little too much and frankly, there could still be more to come. at this point i don't even want to try to predict who will be in the national championship til all the conference championships are over.

all i want to question right now is HOW THE HELL IS TEXAS RANKED!?

they're 6-4 and lost 2 in a row! i wouldn't be surprised if they finish the season 6-6 with upcoming games against texas a&m (not that they're anything special) and baylor.

If Louisville does win next week @USF than they would win the Big East but with 5 loses they would be ineligible for the BCS. (is this correct?)

BCS is a fucking joke. How are Texas and Notre Dame ranked? Especially Texas! They are terrible and just lost this weekend. 

Also, it's a sad day when LSU, Alabama and Arkansas are ranked 123. Those are 3 schools that are in states that don't have pro-football......err I mean LSU, Alabama and Arkansas are basically run like pro-teams. They all oversign and have three of the biggest scumbag coaches in the nation. All this arguing about who belongs in the BCS doesn't even matter. They'd rather have people argue about that then people actually discussing the fact that the BCS is all about money.

 Please, please, please let it be Michigan vs. Houston. I would love nothing more than to see Mattison's defense expose a team that has an offense with gaudy stats but little else. It would be so nice to be on the other end of that after the past few years.

And I also hate this, "Michigan can fill the seats an hotels" bullshit about why we could get into the BCS. I like to think that a) the players and coaches have earned it and b) the team is obviously far improved from the beginning of the season and is trending upwards. I understand that the BCS is a business and is about money, but I feel as if the media is ignoring the fact that Michigan might actually be a talented team.

How are Texas and Auburn ranked? Are there really no other 3-loss BCS teams?

Houston plays Tulsa on Friday.

Tulsa is 8-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State.

One can argue that:

(1) They are the best team on Houston's schedule

(2) They would be undefeated right now if they swapped schedules with Houston

Don't sleep on that game. I wish it was on TV.

EDIT: Another random thought - on top of losing the way they did to us, be thankful to ND for that South Florida screw up.  A two loss ND team with the potential to beat Stanford in it's last regular season game and leapfrog us would both annoy me and make me nervous.

Ohio.

That rule about a non-AQ getting in if they're in the top 16 and ahead of an AQ champion seems really odd to me.  If the non-AQ team wouldn't have been picked on its own, then you have an undesirable team in the BCS.  You're doubling up the undesirable teams, though, since no one wants to see a Big East type crappy conference champion.

Why do that?